The Hoax Funnel is a predictive framework developed by Scott Adams to describe the lifecycle of media-driven narratives. It illustrates a recurring pattern where a sensationalist claim is introduced at the “wide” end of the funnel with maximum certainty and outrage, only to gradually narrow as facts emerge, eventually resulting in a “nothingburger” at the tip.
The Mechanism
The funnel operates as a filtration system for reality. In Adams’ view, modern media relies on “nothing but keywords and Google searches” to construct an Artificial Reality. The process typically follows three stages:
- The Grand Claim: A massive accusation is leveled (e.g., “The President is a Russian asset”).
- The Narrowing: As investigations proceed and evidence fails to materialize, the claim is downsized to smaller, more defensible sub-claims.
- The Exit: The narrative reaches the bottom of the funnel where no evidence remains, yet the public’s Cognitive Dissonance prevents them from acknowledging the collapse.
Adams notes that even sophisticated observers are susceptible to the funnel’s initial gravity. He has remarked that “Ben Shapiro is somewhere down there in the funnel,” suggesting that even those who pride themselves on logic can get trapped in the narrowing stages of a manufactured narrative before it reaches the “nothing” stage.
Key Examples
The most prominent application of this framework is what Adams calls the Fine People Hoax. He argues that the media coverage of the Charlottesville protests was “the lowest point of [Trump’s] presidency” not because of the President’s actions, but because of the media’s success in funneling a nuanced statement into a racial slur. Adams frequently mentions that “The Washington Post wrote a hit piece about me talking about the fine people hoax” because the act of pointing out the funnel often makes one a target of the narrative itself.
Another example cited is the Russia Collusion narrative. Adams observed that the news coverage of the Barr testimony “was maybe the worst I’ve ever seen,” as the media attempted to keep the funnel open even after the foundational claims had evaporated.
Psychological Implications
The Hoax Funnel is fueled by the fact that “organic human beings” rarely change their minds when presented with countering information. Adams posits that “I don’t think people can actually speak the words; I think that their brain would actually freeze” if they were forced to admit a funnel they had invested in was empty.
By understanding the funnel, Adams claims he has been able to “red pill” critics who initially came to mock him. By guiding them through the narrowing facts of a story, he forces the observer to confront the vacuum at the end of the narrative.