The Fog of War is a framework describing the inherent uncertainty and information degradation that occurs during unfolding global events. While traditionally a military term, in the context of persuasion and modern media, it refers to the period during a crisis where the “first report” is almost certainly incorrect, incomplete, or intentionally misleading.
The Mechanics of Uncertainty
During breaking news, information is rarely neutral. Adams emphasizes that “everything you hear from Iran you should not believe [and] everything you hear from your own government don’t believe it—not yet.” This is not necessarily a claim that all actors are lying in unison, but a recognition that “part of this chess match has to do with managing the public’s opinion.”
In this state, information serves a functional utility rather than an objective truth. For authoritarian regimes, the fog is a survival mechanism; for example, “in order for China to survive they have to cut off their population from information.” In the West, the fog is often a byproduct of the speed of social media. Because platforms have become a “de facto public utility,” the rush to provide content often ignores the reality that “provocative and inciting danger… are very different.”
Heuristics for Navigation
To navigate the Fog of War, Adams suggests several filters to determine what is real versus what is “noise”:
- The Consensus Filter: “If both sides agree on something that’s probably true.” When two antagonistic entities acknowledge the same fact, the fog has effectively lifted on that specific point.
- The Wait-and-See Strategy: This is the primary defense against manipulation. If an event is still unfolding and you have a strong opinion, “I don’t think it’s warranted; I think it’s a wait-and-see.”
- The “Smart Version” Analysis: When an actor’s behavior seems nonsensical, Adams suggests: “if a genius said it maybe we repurpose this as the smart version not the dumb version.” This helps identify hidden strategic moves in what looks like chaos.
Cognitive Risks
The primary danger of the Fog of War is the psychological pressure to form a conclusion before the data is in. “If you didn’t know that you’re helpless, you’re living in a system that is manipulating you.” Without the discipline to remain “opinion-less” during the initial 24–72 hours of an event, individuals become susceptible to [Confirmation Bias] or [Mass Delusion].
Ultimately, the Fog of War eventually clears, but by the time it does, the public has often moved on to the next crisis, leaving their initial (and likely incorrect) impressions intact. Success in the [Linguistic 3D Chess] of modern life requires the patience to let the fog dissipate before committing to a narrative.
Related Frameworks:
- [High Filter]
- [Two Reasons]
- [Predictive Model]
- [Simulation Theory]