Confirmation bias is the human tendency to notice, remember, and prioritize information that supports a pre-existing belief while simultaneously filtering out or explaining away contradictory evidence. In the context of the Scott Adams knowledge graph, this isn’t just a minor cognitive glitch; it is the fundamental mechanism that creates the two-movies-on-one-screen phenomenon.
Adams frequently argues that “confirmation bias and reality are indistinguishable” to the person experiencing them. Once a person adopts a specific filter for the world, their brain effectively rewrites incoming data to fit that narrative.
The Mechanics of the Filter
When an individual holds a deep-seated belief, their brain operates on a “search and discard” mission.
- The “200 Reasons” Rule: If someone presents two hundred reasons why a theory is true, it is a primary indicator of confirmation bias. In a clean argument, there are usually one or two solid reasons that are easy to explain. When you see a massive list of weak evidence, you are watching someone start with a conclusion and work backward to justify it.
- The Godzilla Effect: When confirmation bias reaches a societal level, it feels like “Godzilla appeared on the mainland and is tearing through American cities,” yet half the population is acting like nothing is happening. This occurs when a news event is so massive it should be undeniable, but because it doesn’t fit the dominant media filter, it is treated as if it doesn’t exist.
Case Studies in Bias
Adams often points to high-profile media events as “hoaxes” fueled by collective confirmation bias:
- The Charlottesville “Fine People” Quote: This serves as a primary example of people “watching the actual reactions of the people who bought into it” and ignoring the literal transcript because it didn’t fit the “racist” filter.
- The Covington Kids Hoax: Adams famously admitted he fell for this one initially, demonstrating that even those aware of these frameworks can be captured by a persuasive, fast-moving narrative.
- The Russian Collusion Narrative: Adams describes this as a “coup attempt” that took two years of national attention, driven entirely by people looking to blame an outside force for an unexpected outcome.
Countering the Bias
Overcoming your own mental filters is difficult because the brain is designed to hide its own bias from you. Adams suggests several techniques to mitigate the damage:
- The “One or Two Good Reasons” Test: Force yourself to strip away the “200 reasons” and see if the argument holds up with only its strongest points.
- Steel-manning: Be respectful to the leaders of the “other side” while attacking their ideas as hard as possible. If you can’t describe the opposing view in a way they would agree with, you are likely blinded by your own filter.
- Identify the “Brainwashing”: Look for patterns where a group of people has one common element (like social media habits) that makes them unusually susceptible to a specific narrative.
Ultimately, confirmation bias ensures that we are all “living in our own bubbles,” but recognizing that you are watching a “movie” rather than objective reality is the first step toward clear-thinking.