Episode 1095 Scott Adams: Biden’s Fake Lead in Polls Evaporates, Coup V2.0, Q and BLM

Date: 2020-08-17 | Duration: 1:05:27

Topics

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Rough Transcript

This is an auto-generated transcript and may contain errors.

Transcript

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• Coup V2.0 to stay out of jail?

• Mailboxes being removed?

• Is BLM making things WORSE for Black people?

• USPS is dependable…per CNN and other Democrats

• Sweden’s dumb strategy…worked out best?

• Trump supporter boat rallies

If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.
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[0:11]

hey everybody come on in i put on the shirt just for you that's right i was sure listen to a moment ago because we're in a heat wave and i don't have air conditioning sure wish i did i do i have it in the other part of the house but not my office and how long does it take to fix air conditioning during the heat wave well it's not fast so maybe sometime in two weeks or so so i may not be able to work in my office i'm gonna have to relocate somewhere for probably a few weeks see what happens but enough about me let's have the simultaneous step and all you need is a copper mug or glass attacker challenger stein a canteen charger flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine of the day the thing that makes everything better it's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now go

[1:18]

well although i still have electricity where i live in my zip code i'm in california and it looks like a lot of california will not have electricity today why because our government in california is incompetent it decided to be very green and socially correct and the cost of that is getting rid of your nuclear power maybe some of your gas power and trying to make it more green
what's the problem with that no electricity when it gets hot so there will be people dropping like flies today because of bad government management there will be people who probably die today because governor newsom didn't do his job and the rest of the government because if you're getting rid of power sources when you don't have enough that's going to come back and bite you so if you'd like the rest of the country

[2:18]

so if you'd like the rest of the country to be as well managed as california you know how to do it um
i don't know why anybody stays in california the only reason i do is because connections and roots and you know i've got too many things here that i can't walk away from but anybody who can leave who stays in california i don't know why you do it unless unless like me you've got connections so uh rush limbaugh is getting in trouble today for i guess i didn't hear it but he was referring to uh
uh joe biden and kabul harris as joe and ho now he didn't he didn't make that up you've seen that going around the internet here is my advice to republicans slash conservatives that line of attack on harris just doesn't work so if the only thing you're trying to accomplish is to make republicans and conservatives

[3:22]

is to make republicans and conservatives less popular and to get them fewer votes then that's the way to go because you know the the personal uh sexual past of anybody we just can't make that part of politics it just can't be you know if she broke some laws okay but otherwise that since that didn't happen it's just counterproductive it's just counterproductive doesn't do anything
so i would say don't do that all right so
so here is the democrats plan for retaining power or getting power i guess back from trump they have three ways to win three different ways to win number one fair and square let's say biden and harris just get more votes that's one way to win number two

[4:23]

rigged the election with mail-in votes and fraud and all that could that work absolutely because you're only talking about some battleground states how hard would it be to rig the votes with mail-in votes and battleground states easy easy i would think so they could win that way but they have a third plan which is the dangerous one and that's the one that goes like this phase one make sure that the election will not be seen as credible no matter who wins now this is a big deal because we're better off with an inaccurate vote count that we mistakenly think is credible than we would be if we if we got exactly the right vote count let's say with no errors whatsoever impossible just say that but we don't think it's credible that would be the worst case right so if you had a choice of a good vote count that we don't trust or an inaccurate vote count that for

[5:25]

or an inaccurate vote count that for whatever reason we do trust you want the one where we trust because otherwise the country is in trouble and it looks like the democrats are setting up a situation that guarantees the outcome will be in question wouldn't you say that that's obvious at this point it's fairly obvious that the intention of the mail-in voting is to make sure that you can't tell who won
won that is the intention uh you know you don't have to be a mind reader to know that if you could select from choices that have more integrity versus less in a national election you would never choose the one with less integrity unless you wanted less integrity right you would only choose that option if that's what you wanted otherwise you'd say all right everybody's got the same risk go to the voting voting places and vote

[6:26]

so once once they get there let's say uh trump wins but narrowly if trump wins but narrowly they're going to say that the vote was not valid and they're going to start whatever legal and or extra-legal process to remove a president that they would then label as a dictator who refused to leave office how do you know this is true because you can see the disinformation campaign very clearly there on cnn you're going to see more and more of this it's going to be what happens if trump refuses to leave after he loses right every time they bring up that hypothetical they're forming a truth that they can then just transfer into whatever happens so reality hasn't given us an outcome or election yet but cnn is already forming the truth about it which will then just be ported over to the actual situation and so the truth that they're selling the brainwashing if you will the disinformation campaign

[7:27]

disinformation campaign and by the way if i had heard anybody talk the way i'm talking right now five years ago i would have laughed now it said you stupid conspiracy theorists there's nobody trying to overthrow the government but then we just watched it we know for sure that the democrats the fbi and the media did in fact try to overthrow the government that's not even speculation at this point it's you know proven demonstrable fact so if they did it once would they do it a second time oh the reason to do it a second time is way bigger there's a way more incentive to do it a second time do you know why because we haven't yet jailed the people who did it the first time if the let's say i won't name any names but don't you think there's some extra people who have some trouble coming

[8:28]

people who have some trouble coming some people whose names are you know you know i've got a feeling that the durham probe and the election are racing right now and if durham can get certain people indicted and or in jail before the election that might be one thing but those same people who might be indicted and or go to jail are probably going to push pretty hard for the option of making sure that the election result is not credible if trump wins because in order for some people to stay out of jail they might have to rig the election and removed the legally elected president to stay out of jail to stay out of jail would anybody rig an election to stay out of jail yeah yeah especially if you rigged the last election or you tried to by having a coup and removing the president you know in effect rigging it after the

[9:29]

you know in effect rigging it after the fact i guess you'd say so every bit of this is entirely not only possible but probable i would go so far as to say probable at this point yeah why is adam schiff not in jail i don't even understand that clearly you should be in jail
all right uh now let's talk about what the media is doing to us so we've got mailbox gate going on the the belief that trump is having all the mailboxes picked up on trucks and taken away so that people can't vote by mail now of course i saw that story and i said to myself you know i feel i'm gonna wait a little bit if you see a story that the president has ordered mailboxes to be physically removed so that people can't vote the first thing you should think about that story is maybe i'll wait a little bit on this one i'm just going to take a little pause on

[10:29]

i'm just going to take a little pause on this one because i don't i don't want to jump right in on on the removing mailboxes all across the country story because it's a little bit have you ever heard me say this before a little bit on the nose once you learn this on the nose thing where the where the news story is a little too perfect isn't that a little perfect the president is rounding up mailboxes your first thought should be probably not
not probably not and sure enough you wait 24 hours you lift put you look at the news you know breitbart's got a story about uh i guess during the obama administration 14 000 mailboxes were removed it's normal maintenance to remove them and relocate them into busier places it's just business as usual there's literally nothing that happened so
so you got that um then what else what else we've got going

[11:31]

then what else what else we've got going oh there's a there's the fake story that the president is pushing a birther thing with uh harris which he's not exactly pushing he's just saying other people brought it up
up that's it yeah people brought it up okay i guess that's our national story that's all we're going to talk about is the fact that the president didn't do something but you can kind of make it seem as if he did if you weren't it right that's news um what else we got going on um so new zealand has delayed their election which could not make me any happier because what the democrats well not not just the democrats but uh people have been saying for i don't know weeks now new zealand they're the smart ones new zealand really knows how to handle a coronavirus we should be more like new zealand you know it would be good if the united states were more like new

[12:32]

if the united states were more like new zealand they've got their act together they did what they delayed the the election because of the coronavirus ah now we don't like new zealand new zealand's the wrong model new zealand does everything wrong new zealand is dom so you can expect that today new zealand's not so smart when they don't do what we want them to do
do so both biden and harris did not appear did not appear on any shows before the convention what the heck does that tell you neither biden or harris or even any senior people from their campaign they didn't send anybody out to talk on one of the biggest days of the week for the election are they even trying is there something going on here's what i think is going on hypothesis when would be the best time to replace biden with harris

[13:35]

to replace biden with harris would it be during the convention would it be that once all the democrats are somehow at least connected by zoom and digitally connected could it be that that would be the right time for let's say joe biden to say i've got a sniffle and because i have a sniffle i couldn't possibly run for president or some minor problem like that is it possible that all the conversation happening right now is around the question of who should be the top of the ticket do you think that they're having that conversation intensely well here's the thing if they get past the convention it's going to be a lot harder to change the ticket won't it it feels like there's a an optimal time to do it and then there's it's a little harder after that but possible all right so i think the conversation is about when to do it

[14:35]

when to do it not if because it's going to happen it's either going to happen naturally during the term it's going to happen effectively because everybody will assume that harris is running the show but it's going to happen so i think it's possible that having nobody from the campaign talk about anything could be a risk management decision in which they know that anything they say today could make things worse but there's nothing that could have been said yesterday on the news in terms of having yours or against talking to the news there's nothing that could have made it better because whatever happens with a shake-up of the ticket would be you know a nuclear bomb of news that would make anything that happened on sunday unimportant unless it was a mistake so the fact that they are playing to not make a mistake that aggressively tells me something's

[15:36]

that aggressively tells me something's coming there's a little extra coming and they're at least talking about it i'm not predicting that they'll make the change at the convention i'm predicting that that's the conversation they're having all right i did a little uh poll in which i asked people if they thought the black lives movement protests were making things better or worse for black americans now most of the people who answered it were probably people who were trump supporters probably more male probably more white 80 white something like that because that's just who follows me on twitter it's not my fault [Laughter] don't blame me i'm not the i'm not the one who decides who follows me i'm just telling you that's who follows me if that if you don't think that's diverse enough i can't help it um but anyway uh i think something like 83

[16:37]

anyway uh i think something like 83 percent i didn't check it recently said that the the protests are making it worse for black people in the united states now you might say to yourself well why are you asking a bunch of white people if this is making it worse for black people well that's exactly the group to ask
ask if you want to see how the people who might have prejudice are feeling because black people are not trying to convince other black people that they should get more respect resources etc they're trying to convince the very kind of people who answered my poll so that is the group you want to hear from how do you feel about this segment of society now that they've expressed a let's say the black lives matter protests et cetera have been expressed the way they have been expressed and if you get 83 or somewhere in that neighborhood saying it made things worse for black people i think that probably did and here's how

[17:38]

i think that probably did and here's how i think it's worse i think the the i hate to use this word but you know what i'm talking about the brand for black america i think is ruined for a while it might take 10 years to recover that because it's such a bad look because it's paired with looting and paired with pictures of destruction and violence etc because all those things are paired it's just become a terrible look and then the black lives matter leaders saying stuff such as the looting is reparations i don't know how you could do a worse thing to the public you're trying to help i mean really if if black people in america thought that something like real reparations could be possible would you want your let's say people who present themselves as leaders the black lives matter leaders and organizers would you want them saying that the looting was reparations that's exactly what you'd want them not

[18:39]

that's exactly what you'd want them not to say because that just took it right off the table you know i i was sort of pro looking into reparations at least having you know having a legitimate conversation about what could and could not be done given constraints i was all for that i'm all for any conversation and i think that that was you know worth having but not now now it would just be a waste of time i wouldn't spend one minute talking about reparations you know i'd wait another 10 years before bringing that up
so i think things are worse for reparations they're certainly worse for racial harmony and i think it's going to have the biggest impact on employment i think black employment is going to take a hit because a lot of people are going to say you know i just don't want somebody who feels bad about me
me so it won't even be a question that the employer feels bad about the employee

[19:40]

employer feels bad about the employee they'll just say why would i hire somebody i think might have a bad attitude about me yeah and that would be fair
i don't know if it would be legal but it would certainly be reasonable to not hire people you have a high likely a high degree of certainty that they don't like you
all right um and of course black lives matter has their priorities upside down which is the worst thing they're they're focusing on the police uh element of it which you know needs a look i'm not saying that you should brush that aside there there's something real that needs to be looked at there and made better but it is also their lowest priority or should be because it affects the fewest people highest priority of course is the teachers unions which are the source of ongoing systemic racism so if black lives matter can't even fight systemic racism right they're

[20:42]

fight systemic racism right they're going after the lowest priority instead of the highest priority the teachers unions it's hard to give them any credibility so i think they're way behind so cnn news is about q anon because that embarrasses the president and about the u.s postal service being actually quite dependable so cnn is trying to brainwash the country into thinking mail service is dependable let me ask you this have you ever had somebody else's mail delivered to your mailbox i think you have i think yes have you ever mailed anything that didn't get to its destination oh i think you have has anybody ever mailed something to you that you didn't get oh i think you have you've had that experience i mentioned before my father worked for the post

[21:42]

before my father worked for the post office for 30 years every night he would come home and over dinner he would complain about some post office inefficiency so i'm as biased as you could possibly be about the efficiency of the post office let me tell you one other little anecdote back in the days when i would draw the comic strip dilbert on paper and i would take a copy of it and mail the original to my syndicator who would then take copies and send it off to the newspapers well what happens once the the post office where you mail your originals what happens once they figure out your name what happened after they recognized my name and realized i was the dilbert creator and i was sending a package that was about the size of original art what what do you think happened to my original art stolen yeah stolen was i the only cartoonist who put original art in the mail and once the post office realized who was mailing it

[22:43]

mailing it they stole it nope it happened to other cartoonists i'm not going to name names but there's a well-known cartoonist who couldn't mail his his work because the post office stole it every time now i once had his years before there were gofundmes i wrote a story about somebody who's having trouble on a newsletter i used to do years and years ago and uh i think i asked people to i don't know send if they wanted to donate to this person who was in a bad situation they could send money to this post office box now what i didn't realize is that people wouldn't send it necessarily checks so something like 80 percent of the people who send some money to that post office box put cash they put cash in it now of course they they tried to disguise it you know you put paper around the cash or whatever but as soon as the post office realized

[23:44]

but as soon as the post office realized that any cash there must have been at least one that you could sort of tell there was
was a dollar in there or something as soon as the postal employees realized that the mail going to this one post office box had cash in it how much of the cash got through after the day that they realized it was cash none none they stole every every bit of it
it you know there were like empty envelopes that would show up and it just like stopped one day the moment they realized it was cash they stole it all so the democrats are trying to sell you the most ridiculous notion that the post office could take a 30
30 hit to their traffic uh and given the the current amount of efficiency that we would have something like a credible election that way there is not really any chance of having a credible election with a massive mail-in votes it's just not a thing and it doesn't matter who wins and doesn't even matter what happens

[24:45]

doesn't even matter what happens it is not credible by its as a system in other words there's nothing you can do between now and then there's just nothing you can do there's not enough time now let me test out a uh i need you to fact check this for me i saw a claim that you can tell by the bar code and some codes on it on the outside of your ballot if you're a republican or a democrat can somebody confirm that that's true or not true and the the claim is that under the barcode there's this what looks like a long series of random numbers and letters but one of the letters is either a d or an r indicating whether you're registered democrat or republican i don't know if that's true can somebody fact check that for me because again remember the rule if something's a little bit too on the nose it's probably not true so if you hear that the the mail-in

[25:47]

so if you hear that the the mail-in ballots uh tell have some kind of indicator on it subtle one but you if you knew what it was you could look for it that the indicator will tell you if you're democrat or republican that is too on the nose meaning if that's true well that would be amazing so usually things that if they're true that would be amazing are usually not true so somebody needs to
to confirm that this is true to me before i will believe it but there's a report out there that you can tell just by looking at the envelope if that's true there's really no chance of
of of a fair election no chance the the the oh and and this is the funniest part if you want to know how dumb the post office is uh and again i can say this because my father worked for the post office and he he was one of the dumbest guys i've ever known true story i hate to say that he's he's no longer with us so i can say that

[26:52]

but the postal union decided to endorse biden that's right while we're having this big national debate about whether the post office can be a major element of a fair election the postal union just endorsed one of the people running now that should have been the end of it the moment the postal union endorsed one of the candidates that was the point when the democrats should have said oh okay that really just changes everything i
i i see we can't use the system anymore because now it's not only bias but it's announced a bias they announced a bias that's really the end of it if we were any kind of a competent country we would just say oh well there's still a debate about whether it could be done fairly but there's no longer a debate about whether it can be seen as credible and if you think those are the same

[27:53]

and if you think those are the same debate they're not so let me say that again because it's the most important thing there's a debate about whether it can be accurate and that's separate from whether the public can ever see it as credible and once once the postal union has picked aside
that's it that's the end of any real chance it could be seen as credible it can't be because the people delivering the damn mail just told you who they want to win i don't think it could be any clearer than that that you can't overcome that hurdle that that is a mountain that no amount of hard work can overcome you can do anything you want you could put a trillion dollars into making sure that the actual mail delivery was accurate it would make no difference at this point because the postal union picked a preferred candidate it's over

[28:55]

candidate it's over this question is absolutely over but the but the fake news will try to conflate those two things and act like the credibility and the actual performance are really the same thing and then there's another bit of magic where they have to act as though the post office does a good job now as somebody who is bad at analogies said on twitter oh sure because by the way you can tell that this is a democrat talking because they only use sarcasm instead of reasons so don't look for the reason it's just sarcasm oh sure we we don't trust the post office to to deliver the ballots but we do trust it for our social security checks well i think they do those electronically but we do trust it for all of our important other stuff oh no the only important thing we don't trust it for is the election yeah all these other

[29:57]

is the election yeah all these other important things we trusted for just not this one thing right so that's a democrat argument it doesn't say anything it just says it in that tone so there's no actual thinking or rational anything it's just that tone now here's what's wrong with it of course if somebody sends you a check and you don't get it because it got lost in the mail or it comes a few days late that doesn't change too much does it there isn't too much that's going to go wrong if your check is a couple days late or even if it gets lost you can always call the the person who lost it as i have let me let me tell you how many times that i've not gotten a check that was mailed to me
25 times maybe in the in the course of my professional life something like 25 times i've had to put a stop on a check or ask somebody to put a stop on a check because the mail didn't deliver it probably 25 times and

[31:02]

so the so the next thing that the news will try to convince you is that they're actually good when you have a time constraint so the reason these analogies are not appropriate is because these are low risk things that don't have a timing element to them whereas the election is the highest of all risk it's literally the highest risk in the country if you get that wrong everything else falls apart it doesn't matter what you're doing right with your economy your anything else if if the election doesn't hold as credible everything else falls apart it's all dependent on that that's the that's the way the system is designed so we're going to have a non-credible result and the news will try to convince us that it was credible it's the most incredible the most amazing act of brainwashing you'll ever see all right um
oh so you notice that there are riots and massive uh shootings and gun

[32:05]

riots and massive uh shootings and gun deaths and stuff and i guess chicago and portland and seattle i don't know if new york is still doing it and they're getting pretty violent and terrible and every day that they go on trump gets closer to election because trump has played this perfectly from a political perspective you could argue about you know functionally but from a political perspective the best thing trump could have done is continuously offer federal help and let the cities decline it and then once they've declined it allow allow that to stand not overrule them now the the minor exception was federal people protecting federal property but that's an exception that's that's federal property uh so by trump not acting like a dictator in other words not sending in troops and overriding the cities and and the states he looks very much not like a dictator

[33:06]

like a dictator and it makes the other side the democrats running these riot-torn cities look like well do you want more of that because that's what they want to bring you nationally i mean if i were the trump campaign i would do nothing but show video from the riots and say this is what they want to bring to you nationally because you know that's not even a little bit wrong that's not even a slight bit of hyperbole what you're seeing in the inner cities is exactly what you would get everywhere if those same kinds of policies were taken nationally same kind of policies in this case being soft on crime um
cnn has managed to disappear all of the riots like it's like they don't exist and also the kleinsmith stuff so to so the country is having like massive these big riots every night and there was a coup that we now know you know at least one of the central uh players of this coup this kleinsmith guy

[34:08]

of this coup this kleinsmith guy and that's sort of not treated as news [Laughter] not really news
the the milly weaver thing i haven't gotten interested in yet i guess that's been removed so i guess that's um let's say uh
contentious contentious no some debatable reporting there so i don't know what the truth is on any of that um here let me see if i can clear something up that a few times i made some twitter comments that were incomplete and therefore misleading and it goes like this why is it that the george floyd story is a national story whereas the uh the the five-year-old or the toddler whatever he was who was killed by his neighbor while he was just in his front yard why is one of them a national story and the other is ignored because fox news and others are trying

[35:10]

because fox news and others are trying to say hey what about this story is it only because the victim was white and here's what the public doesn't understand about what makes a national story now i deal with trying to turn things that are not stories into national stories that's actually my job so if i'm trying to get my book promoted and let's say it was a the original dilbert books i would tie them to a national story which is hey there's lots of downsizing and offshoring back in the 90s and here's a character that has the same situation so dilbert got on the cover of magazines etc
etc because i did what everybody does when they want to elevate an individual story they attach it to something that's already a story you can't make a story out of nothing it's really hard but you can attach anecdotes to existing stories and then they they get some attention so the george floyd thing was

[36:10]

floyd thing was attached to a national story you can argue whether it was a true or false story but you can't argue that it was a national high-level story about black citizens being abused by cops so because it was already a story any video especially and it's the video that makes it extra extra strong it's not the video alone it still could have been a story without the video but i think you'd all agree the video gave it that extra power so i think i said on twitter it has to be on video let me let me adjust that to say doesn't have to be on video but it's way way way stronger if it is so the problem with the child who is killed by the neighbor is it does not attach to any national story and when the conservative side of the world tried to do that and say hey hey this is a story too why are you ignoring it why are you being hypocrites they weren't they weren't being hypocrites because

[37:11]

they weren't being hypocrites because the child who was killed as tragic as that is and and unique in its in its way in a bad way uh it just doesn't attach to a national story but suppose the democrats had run that same story it would have been a gun control story a gun control story right it would have been a story about there are too many guns and therefore look what happened this kid got shot but because the races were the wrong races it doesn't fit in with the black lives matter story doesn't fit in with the protesters so places like cnn would be disinclined to attach it to a national story about gun control because it would work against their other propaganda now that part's true but if you're a conservative i wouldn't try
try too hard yeah his his name is canon uh hit net if that's if that's the right name um so i wouldn't try too hard

[38:14]

um so i wouldn't try too hard to get this attached to a national story if you're a conservative because it's going to get attached to gun control now you might say to yourself but wait scott what about the national story of black on white murder what about that because and i looked that up just see what the stats are on that um and i think it's something like like i actually have those stats um and it's always hard to find stats when you're talking on public and looking for your stats you can never find your stats how the hell did i not find that oh here it is there are more than twice as many black and white homicides compared to white on black so the black population is 13 of the country white is 80 something percent but they have roughly evil equal number of crimes against the other

[39:14]

equal number of crimes against the other which would mean that the black on white crime as a percentage would be sky high now why is that not a national story do you ever ask yourself that why is it not a national story that white people are being slaughtered by black people now i use the word slaughtered to get myself cancelled because that's the part will be taken out of context that's a lot of murder there's a lot of murder going on
what is it what is it yeah it can't be 80 what's the percentage of oh you know what it does uh i think in the stats the hispanic population was added to the standard white population so i think in the
the when they do the stats they're adding hispanic and white together as one category so then it gets into the 80s
not that you would do that necessarily but that's what it is so ask yourself why is that not a

[40:15]

so ask yourself why is that not a national story now of course you can explain it by income income groups and stuff like that but it is not a story that you could tell without getting canceled can you imagine any national news program doing a story about the epidemic of black people killing white people you can't really you can't even imagine it
it in this country that could never happen and
and because dana can be used to make any case you want you could simply reverse and say oh sure but
but white people are killing just as many black people so you know it's about equal well my point is
is that we sort of decide what the story is and then things get attached to it but it's the national press that decides what's the story and they have decided it's not good for their personal careers to emphasize any racial disparity in crime and so they don't and so therefore that story of the

[41:17]

and so therefore that story of the tragic story of the child who got murdered by the neighbor doesn't tie to a national story so if you think you should that would be fair to say but if you're wondering hey why are these being treated differently that's the reason it's just not tied to a national story and that's the way it always works all right um coronavirus deaths i think there are over 175 000 for this country predicted at least another 24 000 in the coming month so we will easily it looks like past 200 000 dead that's a number which i had asked people who were saying it's just the flu early on i said well if you think it's just the flu can you commit to a number beyond which you'd say oh god that wasn't just the flu and and one of the one of the what would i say coronavirus i don't want to say skeptic but skeptic in terms of how bad it would be

[42:21]

had said 200 000 would be the number at which you'd say okay all right for 200 000 deaths that's definitely not the flu especially since the 200 000 you only got to because of the closed down and the severe punishment of the economy
so does anybody still argue it's just the flu
has that population of people now shrunk to the point where it's a different conversation a conversation about how to handle it but not so much that's just the flu so i don't know if that transition is going to happen but i don't hear the just the flu people being as loud on social media anymore
speaking of statistics do you believe that we will ever know eve no matter when at any date in the future whether the u.s did worse or better than other countries do you think we'll ever know that if you said yes oh yeah we'll definitely know i mean

[43:22]

oh yeah we'll definitely know i mean once it's all done we'll look at the data lots of researchers will dig in they'll find out what worked what didn't and we will know if president trump did a good job compared to the other leaders if you believe that can be known you've never been involved in this kind of work meaning data analysis of any kind we can't know that it is completely unknowable unless it was some major obvious thing that anybody could tell but if you tried to suss it out of the the data and the only thing you're doing is saying i'm not going to look at i'm not going to look at the decisions he made i'm just going to see how it turned out you know you're never going to be able to do it and here's why would it be most appropriate i saw this yesterday for the us as a whole to be compared to the other wealthy countries would that be a good comparison well i would argue that you need to take the islands out of it i think you need to take your taiwan's

[44:24]

i think you need to take your taiwan's your south korea which is effectively an island because of the dmz you're you're new zealand's and maybe you're australia that's a it's a pretty big island but uh but i think you need to look at the island separately and say okay these have the most in common with each other because of you know the island element of it and see how the islands did so if you're throwing the islands in with wealthy countries well already that result is less credible okay that's just one problem here's some more the united states is really 50 different entities you know 52 if you count i don't know puerto rico and guam or whatever
so should we say that the average of those all those entities is what the united states is or should we treat each of the states like a country and say all right how did new york state do compared to europe right because

[45:25]

compared to europe right because actually new york state's doing pretty well you know they had a they had a tough spot wasn't their fault for the most part you could argue about the about the the old people being put back in their senior care places that looks like a mistake in hindsight i don't know if it was as obvious when it happened obviously it wasn't it wasn't obviously a mistake when it happened
but wouldn't we find for example that we have let's say just guessing probably more than 40 states who are doing better than europe would that be true would we have 40 of our states doing better than europe maybe but then those european countries would say wait wait wait if you get to cherry-pick your states we're going to say if you take i'll just pick a random all right we'll do the same thing we'll take frankfurt out of our equation i'm just guessing that frankfurt had bad

[46:25]

i'm just guessing that frankfurt had bad coronavirus i don't know if it did we'll just take that out of our equation how about that and then we beat you again so basically everybody who wants to look good is going to have an argument well don't count the you know the senior care places you have to take those out that was just you know tragic but you know if you're really going to compare that was just one event that had a big impact you got to take that out so people argue about whether that should be in around whether the state should be compared whether you're on the same curve we don't know and then here's here's the thing that's so completely unknowable and the thing that's going to drive me freaking crazy for the next five years and it goes like this as far as i can tell sweden did the dumbest strategy and it worked out the best now that of course creates a situation where you can say that they didn't have a good strategy or that they did

[47:27]

strategy or that they did you could just spin it any way you want so here's why it was the dumbest plan when sweden went for herd immunity the assumption was they'd have to get the 60 or 70 percent infection turns out it's probably closer to 20 because people seem to have some natural immunity and if sweden had known it was going to be 20 well they're geniuses oh they're geniuses we'll talk about italy in a second but
but sweden thinking that they were heading toward herd immunity of 60 or 70 which by any measure would have been you know quite a big death toll probably would have crashed their health care system they probably would have ended up closing more stuff they would have had to more aggressively close down because the public would say too many people are dying or health care is dying so if so if sweden's plan had worked the way

[48:28]

so if sweden's plan had worked the way they thought it would work here's the key part if sweden's plan had worked the wastes we didn't thought it would work if it gone exactly the way they wanted it to it would have crashed their whole economy because they thought it was 60 to 70 percent for herd immunity they got incredibly lucky i think now i think we'll probably have to wait to see if this is real but the only way that sweden got down to basically something like zero deaths lately is because herd immunity was a fraction of what everybody thought nobody knew that they did the dumbest strategy and hit a home run it was like they were blindfolded and they were up to bat and somebody threw a ball and they swung really hard and they hit the fricking ball and they got a home run and it wasn't because they were good batters they had a blindfold on right that's what happened so it's going to drive me crazy that we

[49:29]

so it's going to drive me crazy that we will ever be compared to sweden's like look how smart sweden was no they were the dumbest country but they got the luckiest that's what it looks like to me
so if it turns out that 20 is hurt immunity and it also is true that the united states has rampant infections where europe does not who's the smart one right because now we've seen sweden if we'd never seen sweden hit herd immunity we would also think it was 60 or 70 percent but now that we know it's closer to
to 20 and we know that in all likelihood i'm not sure you can say you know anything but it seems very likely that the reason that new york city and new york state are doing well is that they have so many infections that every they got to hurt immunity and we might be the next one who hits herd immunity simply because we didn't control it that carefully same as sweden so

[50:31]

same as sweden so if it turns out that we get back to a functioning economy and fewer deaths because we had herd immunity faster than europe who is the smart one would we be the smart one because our economy would be kicking back into gear our deaths would be zero we'd be on the other side of it like sweden while europe is still trying to tamp down every fire i know we better close down again better close down again better close down again and they're going to end up in the same place so my my basic point is that we will never know who did better than anybody else because everybody was guessing we all have good hindsight none of the data is reliable and nobody can decide what two things should be compared i will add this following prediction i think that the reason that the herd immunity is so low somewhere 20 percent ish might be because the vitamin d thing i think we're going to find out that the

[51:32]

i think we're going to find out that the people who had the lowest vitamin d as well as any other medical problems were just the entire the entire group that could have a problem because it turns out that you have low vitamin d if you're african-american if you're overweight if you've got diabetes if you're old if you're you know probably in a senior care facility like all of the things all the types of people were at high risk coincidentally also had very low vitamin d i think in the end we're going to find out that they were the the ones at risk and and if we had tested for vitamin d levels we could have really uh done better all right now some of you are going to say how can hurt immunity be 20 when we know that at least in one city in europe it was over 50 and there are some prisons which are also over 50 and there actually is a perfectly good reason why some environments don't get

[52:32]

reason why some environments don't get hurt immunity at twenty percent and it has to do with density so if you got people packed together such as in a jail it doesn't matter that herd immunity would normally be twenty percent they're just they're just basically marinating in virus there's just so much of a viral load if you get enough infected people in a small area like a jail that in that case as with at least one cruise ship as well it'll it'll rush past 20 but those are artificial environments where people can't get away from each other too well so it could be true that a prison or a cruise ship or a certain town could have a 50 situation for herd another one might be 20 percent if you're just living in the country so those can be compatible all right [Music] cnn has a poll that shows uh that the here's here's how it's worded

[53:32]

that the here's here's how it's worded uh on i think breitbart that joe biden's lead has evaporated in the last two months a new poll from cnn shows this is a cnn poll showing biden's lead has evaporated now let me ask you this
let's say you were planning a coup version 2.0 and let's say you wanted to maybe keep all your options open and one of the options would be to replace the top of the ticket with kamala harris if you were an illegitimate news organization whose leader jeff zucker was personally and has for a long time been a promoting kamala harris what do you think your polls would show right before the democratic convention i believe your polls would show

[54:34]

i believe your polls would show that biden has a lead that evaporated because if cnn wants kamal harris to take the top spot they're going to have to create a narrative that says that biden cannot win the way he's going in other words they're going to say ah the weakness in the party it's obviously the top spot because you know and now his lead has evaporated according to cnn huh how convenient just when the democrats are at that decision point of deciding whether they need to make a change at the top just at the right time cnn that is very pro-kamala harris coincidentally produces their worst poll results for joe biden huh interesting what a coincidence or is it
now i would say that one of the reasons that maybe trump will look better in all the polls

[55:35]

trump will look better in all the polls because i would expect all the polls to start narrowing especially as we get closer to the vote and here's the thing that i don't think you can underestimate the degree to which democrats saw biden as a seat of filler and not a real candidate because as long as trump was running against a generic democrat that generic democrat didn't have any flaws and biden was really just a sea filler he was just a stand-in a proxy if you will for a generic democrat a person who was not trump but now you put it in kamala harris people say well she's the real president and suddenly it's trump versus an actual person who has actual history and actual targets and actual flaws it's the first time until now trump was running against a generic even with biden and it was just a generic now it's a real person

[56:37]

generic now it's a real person so you would expect that the flaws of a real person would seem bigger than the flaws of a generic because that person can be perfect in your mind and the funniest part is that the battleground states the only ones that matter
have how close are they they're dead even so the battleground states are dead even do you know what dead even means in a cnn poll if the cnn poll says the battleground states are dead even statistically it's 49 to 48.
that means that trump is ahead of the battleground states there's no other way to see that because you know there's some shy trump supporters in there how shy are the trump supporters let me put it to you this way you know those gigantic trump boat rallies that you've seen on social media but you don't see in the news because the news doesn't cover it

[57:38]

doesn't cover it those uh
i'm just looking at a comment that's making me laugh the reason that trump supporters have to have the rally in the water is because they can't do it on land trump supporters could not put on their trump hats pick up their trump flags and say hey let's meet in the park and have a trump rally it would be dangerous it's dangerous to be on land as a trump supporter that could be identified it's actually dangerous and so trump supporters didn't just find a cool way to show their support it's like hey boats are cool if we have a lot of boats and it's the summer it's going to look pretty cool let's have a lot of boats yeah that's part of it
it that's part of it but the bigger part is the republicans are not safe on land democrats could have a pro-biden [Music] parade and they would know they would not be harassed

[58:39]

not be harassed maybe verbally but not physically right democrats can have a rally on dry land you live in a country where this sort of this sort of snuck up on you it's not an accident that the trump supporters had to leave the continental united states i mean they're still in u.s waters but they had to leave the continental united states literally physically leave it leave the united states to have a trump rally i mean they're still in in our waters but they have to leave the the dry land that's not a joke there's no joke there that is actually what happened they couldn't feel safe on dry land now you tell me that these people are telling the truth when pollsters call them and say who do you support not a chance not a chance i told you that when a pollster called me the first i think the first time it's ever happened um the moment i realized it was a pollster and i realized what the question was

[59:40]

and i realized what the question was going to be about in my head i said oh i'm going to tell them biden because the last thing i'm going to do is tell them the truth and you know it turns out they asked me if i was registered to vote and i said no and that was the end of it so i didn't have to lie but i would have so at the moment it looks like there's no real chance that biden can win as the top of the ticket and that means that cnn is going to soften up the public by giving some low poll numbers you should expect that any other poll polling company that's friendly to biden is going to show his his his lead narrowing you should see all of the left-leaning polls narrow quickly because they're going to try to create the story that well sooner than it's sooner than better sooner is better to replace the top of the ticket better get this going better hurry up because he's not going to win you look at the polls he's not going to win you better put somebody stronger in there hey

[1:00:40]

somebody stronger in there hey who do we put in there calmly hear us all right
uh somebody says dude trump was holding two rallies a week until covent on landed everything well that was trump trump has the advantage of having lots of security and a secure location uh that's still safe but if you were to just say hey why don't we have like a trump parade or why don't we all meet in the park and we're just it's just us there's no trump it's just us what do you think would happen it's a different situation have you noticed that the people who disagree with me are just bad at analogies i think the democrats have basically two modes of arguing a bad analogy and sarcasm and sometimes they they combine the two because you saw that even even though that was a written comment about the person who said uh that trump

[1:01:41]

about the person who said uh that trump has had rallies even the written comment was written as sarcasm dude trump has had two rallies and everything even spelled everything so in that sarcastic way and there thing they can't actually have any kind of irrational debate it's so is so universally true it's just a bad analogy with sarcasm and they actually think that that's some kind of thinking some kind of point it's really not it's actually not it's just sarcasm sarcasm isn't reasons and analogies are not reasons either they're just something that reminded you of something else that's it that's the whole thing
uh yeah try to put a trump bumper sticker on your car better yet put a trump bumper sticker over any car that you think is a biden sporter no don't do that their cars will get wrecked take that back do not do that

[1:02:43]

take that back do not do that although i know it's been done as a prank somebody says warren i don't think so but
but you know nothing can be ruled out at this point i don't think warren would have a chance against trump uh somebody says what's up with trump helicopters flying with four missiles why wouldn't it
it you don't think you don't think air force one has defense i would expect the helicopters to be harmed why wouldn't they be all right uh somebody says the comment was funny jesus ease up boomer can i see that now first of all the comment was meant to be a serious comment that that trump has rallies so here's somebody who can't tell the difference between humor and not humor actually can't tell the difference and so has decided to call me a boomer because didn't have any other reasons so so i guess that's the third argument

[1:03:46]

so so i guess that's the third argument there are three democrat arguments bad analogy sarcasm and calling people to boomers kind of it but this one won't have to worry anymore because he is now relegated to the blocked world goodbye all right that's all i got uh did you cash out your kamala bet well she's not official yet she's not official i have two bets on kamala one for the top of the ticket and one for vice president both of them were long odds so if either one of them comes in it pays for the other one so i'm at least going to win for vice president which would pay for my other bet and and more uh but if she becomes the top of the ticket i'm going to make some serious money so i still have those bets in place oh q anon um i i don't know what to say about q i it seems like cnn wants to make that more

[1:04:47]

seems like cnn wants to make that more of a story uh q has become a bit of a religion i think people just enjoy the whole cue thing i just can't take it too seriously
somebody says if i see an american flag i think trump supporter i think you're right i think you're right i don't think that the democrats use the american flag anymore i think that they too see it as a republican symbol
all right that's all i got for now and i will talk to you tomorrow slaughter beaters at 100 percent