Episode 1056 Scott Adams: Pandemic Loserthink, Artists Behaving Badly, Protesters Being Bad

Date: 2020-07-13 | Duration: 1:11:16

Topics

Find my “extra” content on Locals: https://ScottAdams.Locals.com

Rough Transcript

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Transcript

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• Trump supporters, seeing physical danger…will vote

• Becoming used to Biden’s cognitive decline

• The unasked question for BLM

• Risk management and the value of masks

• Republicans view this election as an EXTINCTION EVENT

If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.
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[0:16]

hey everybody come on in it's time for coffee with Scott Adams and today it's gonna be a really good one not because my content is special or my presentation will be good never is but today you're gonna get the simultaneous sip and if you've not enjoyed this before whoa do you have something good coming now it starts out subtle but over time it becomes profound and all you need to enjoy this incredible moment is a copper mug or a glass of tanker chelators dye the canteen trigger flies a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for them parallel pleasure the dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything better including pandemics go hmm I feel the infection rate dropping despite all the

[1:18]

infection rate dropping despite all the data that says the opposite we'll talk about that so it seems that China has decided to sanction senators Rubio and Cruz sort of a revenge sanction because there were some Chinese officials who were sanctioned over treatment of the weaker minority in China specifically rounding them up and putting them in prison camps and doing god-knows-what so now China has sanctioned our two senators Rubio and Cruz for speaking out against the weiners that's right we sanctioned we sanctioned Chinese officials for being essentially killers having prison camps for minorities and you know things are not going well in there and China's sanctioned are two of our criticizers for simply mentioning that

[2:20]

criticizers for simply mentioning that they've got some kind of a genocide going on what what so if Rubio or Cruz have websites to donate to their next campaigns maybe this would be a good time to let people know because as you saw with Goya the only way to protect people who are attacked in this way be it for cancellation or be a Chinese trying to suppress freedom of speech in America you have to reward the people who went first and took the arrows so I would say that Rubio and Cruz just pretty much guaranteed reelection for themselves thank you China I don't know what sanctions they put on emotions reading that when it was time to go here so some details I don't know all right the read the Washington Redskins are changing their name it's about time you

[3:22]

changing their name it's about time you know of all of the of all of the various statue protests and you know political correctness movements I would say the Washington Redskins should have been really close to the top of that list it's kind of surprising that we it took so long to get here and here's why it's literally talking about their skins their skin color I would think that that would be the you know the one that would be most obvious that you would change first I'm surprised it lasted as long as it did now I don't think anybody who used that name was using it in a negative way as others have pointed out in fact my my high school was the Warriors and there was a Native American mascot my college was also coincidentally warriors was the name of the team and again it was an American Indian or Native American and in every

[4:22]

Indian or Native American and in every case I remember thinking that it was a sign of risk that's how I always took it I always took it that the reason that we had there was mascots is because they were awesome that was the whole point of it right that the Native Americans were awesome so we named our sports team after him because we want our sports teams to be awesome so there's no question that the intention behind these mascots was all positive but still skin you know just I'm okay with that one changing I know some of you disagree and there's plenty of plenty of room for that oh somebody says the Kansas City Chiefs you know that's I would say that's a different situation a chief is nothing but a job title that's pretty awesome whereas is sort of about the color of your skin so they seem different to me you know how you debate people online and you know they give you

[5:24]

people online and you know they give you a zinger and you give them a zinger but it's hard to know who won right you know if you have these back and forth with with critics on Twitter and it's always unsatisfying because you don't have a victory you don't even have a loss you just think maybe I won but they probably think they won today today I had a funny one I had Saturday in a conversation in the comments I had noted to make my point and doesn't matter what the topic was I I noted that time was an illusion so that was my comment and then my critic said about my comment that that doesn't sound smart literally that doesn't sound smart so my comment was time is an illusion and the critic said to me that doesn't sound smart do you recognize the source of my quote that time is an illusion

[6:24]

of my quote that time is an illusion well I told my critic once you work it out with the Einstein it's his quote now I don't know if I've ever won an online conversation quite as thoroughly as taken up with Einstein it's his quote now that doesn't mean that my critic will agree with me because even quoting Einstein is not good enough on Twitter but I thought it was funny I rarely get to win an argument with breaking up taken up with Einstein you know the two of you geniuses can you work it out let me know if Einstein changes your mind so be it but if you change Einsteins mind I can't rule it out except he's dead then I'll change mine too so I was telling my I'll call him my by liberal friend so I've got a good friend for you know many decades who's a super liberal and of

[7:26]

decades who's a super liberal and of course this caused some some tension in our relationship and so we have some back-and-forth now and then what I can handle his level of Trump derangement syndrome but I but he was challenged being challenging me when I said that if Biden wins Republicans will be hunted now of course I said that for the reaction in other words the whole point of it is the reaction the point of it does not me saying it so I wanted to get a reaction in which people all over the country would say Scott you are totally wrong about that there's no risk at all to Trump supporters even if Biden is elected now I don't think that's even close to true there of course is risk the size of the risk could be debated but over there's risk there's no I don't think that should be debated but my friend when I made the follow-up comment that it's dangerous to be a trump

[8:27]

that it's dangerous to be a trump supporter and that there's videos and reports all over the place of Trump supporters being attacked and harassed and assaulted in public just for being Trump supporters he was doubtful about that my friend was and he is unaware of any danger to Trump supporters which is interesting isn't it so it's somebody who reads only the left-leaning sources that he believes are not left-leaning like NPR and New York Times so I continually mock him for for being a low information voters whereas he thinks he's a high information voter because he consumes a lot of news well it's all on one side so he's definitely a low information voters who doesn't know it and his hypothesis when I told them that I ran an online poll in which over 60% of the respondents said that

[9:28]

over 60% of the respondents said that they have lied about their support of Trump over 60% this is a non-scientific poll but since most most of the people answered in her Trump supporters 64 percent of them said that they've lied either by omission or directly about supporting Trump to avoid trouble now my friend said this that the real the real thing they're afraid of is not cancellation they're not afraid of cancellation says my liberal friend the under informed one he says that what they're really afraid of is ridicule and criticism now does that I don't I don't know if I've ever heard of the opinion that was so far from reality have you ever met a trump supporter who was afraid of criticism I don't think I ever have I don't know that's so far from being a thing there's no Trump or nur indoors ready

[10:28]

there's no Trump or nur indoors ready Biden supporter who is afraid of criticism for their opinion that's so not a thing yeah it's in the comments I think you'll agree so and who is who is afraid of criticism for their political opinion literally no one literally no one is afraid of criticism for their political opinions because the whole point of your opinion is you think you're right nobody's afraid of being criticized for being right you know it's I'm sure it's a problem people have been criticized for being right but nobody's worried about it it's the lowest thing anybody worried about so my friend needed to explain away why 64% of the people in my highly unscientific poll we have lied about their political preference I don't think that's has that ever happened has it ever happened that people would lie at that level about their political

[11:29]

at that level about their political preference so my friend is trying to explain his his his worldview because it doesn't fit the observed facts as I report them he doesn't see the observed facts so he is unaware that there is video after video at least on Twitter of people being beaten up killed for saying all lives matter which sort of suggests there probably a trump supporter it's amazing how unaware half the country is that their own side has turned into fascists and they don't even know it and they can't know it isn't that interesting so my friend there's nothing you could do to make him read news that's right leaning he will never ever consume it because he thinks is evil and ignorant and wrong so he has no way to know that his worldview is a

[12:29]

way to know that his worldview is a fascist supporting worldview even though he's not a fascist he's just he's he's accidentally supporting them having no idea just doesn't have any idea now people on the Left think that the people on the right have the same problem meaning that the people on the Left say well the right doesn't see what we're doing doesn't see all the news over here wrong that's completely wrong because the mainstream news is mainstream the people who read who consume Fox News mostly also see the other stuff because it's sort of everywhere but it just doesn't work the other way alright here are two things we know about Biden and this gets you to a point my mother once taught me when I was young she didn't make this up it was a an old famous saying even here go there you can get used to anything if you do it long enough including hanging now when you see how

[13:30]

including hanging now when you see how often that's true it's one of the one of the great truths of life and when you understand this you can predict the future a lot better people can get used to almost anything we are practically used to a pandemic and we're not I mean we're still fussing with our maths and stuff but aren't you a little bit amazed that in a few months the entire planet went into mask-wearing mode and we kind of yeah we're sort of okay with it while we complain which we weren't and argue over the science and stuff but mostly you can get used to anything it's it's amazing and one of the things that people are getting used to is Joe Biden's continued decline his mental decline I don't think anybody doubts it anymore when I say I don't think anybody doubts it you know there's gonna be some hardcores hoodoo doubt it but I would say that even among the left they're

[14:32]

say that even among the left they're quite aware that something's going on right because I don't have to read the news on the right to see it themselves they can just sort of see it don't need to see the other news and here's what's amazing Biden continues to have a commanding lead in the polls if you believe polls you know what I mean at the same time that his own side is getting used to his dementia that's right you can get used to anything his own team is giving used to the fact that they're supporting somebody who can't possibly do the job of the most important job in the world and they got used to it because that's exactly what happened it wasn't you know if you ask them they'll tell you well it's a mental process well he's still better than Trump well he'll have good advisers but you but you hear these things and you say um a lot of that stuff would have

[15:33]

say um a lot of that stuff would have applied to any president but if you had gotten if you had receive this choice from day one if if if everybody who voted for Biden in the primaries saw him then the way they can see him now would they have selected him as they're leaving candidate for the primaries I don't think so but now because they did they're they're mentally obliged cognitive dissonance requires them to come up with a reason for why they're supporting somebody who's mentally incapable and it's obvious without the and it's obvious part none of this is fun in terms of understanding the psychology of people but if you wanted to see what cognitive dissonance looks like this will be the best example you've ever seen all right here's the setup the setup is that somebody does something that they think makes sense and then later they find out it was really really dumb but because we

[16:37]

it was really really dumb but because we don't like to think we are really really dumb even though it's obvious because you just nominated somebody who's mentally incapable anyway you look at that from today's point of view if you if you look at how you how you voted if you're a Democrat in the primaries if you voted for Biden if you were a rational person you would say man that was dumb because if I could go back in time I definitely would have voted for one of the other candidates because at least you want to get somebody who's mentally capable that's sort of the minimum you know that's sort of minimum and but but how many Democrats will think like that how many will say gosh you know it seemed like a good idea but now I guess I was just duh - the signs because there was plenty of news even back then at least the Republicans were we're saying it I've been saying it since then that there's a mental decline here I should have seen it nope that will happen to approximately

[17:39]

nope that will happen to approximately zero people instead cognitive dissonance is perfectly set up for this situation in fact if you were going to write a textbook and give some examples of what would cause cognitive dissonance it's exactly this not approximately this not sort of like this exactly exactly exactly this with no modifications somebody committed to it in the past that committed to a position there from today's perspective they really should not have it was obviously a mistake but now they're good and defend it anyway and when they defend it you get to say to yourself you know you're lying right because it'll look like that to you as an observer it's gonna look like a whole bunch of Democrats are looking you right in the eye and lying to you by saying I don't see anything wrong with Biden and you'll be thinking that looks like a lie because you couldn't possibly

[18:39]

like a lie because you couldn't possibly be thinking that but it's not a lie it's not a lie it's cognitive dissonance you will see people who have hypnotized themselves accidentally they've hypnotized themselves into a ridiculous position that now he looks okay his his advisers will be good he'll have a good vice president I don't see what risk this could be they've talked themselves into ridiculousness and don't know it all right if if you ever need to give an example of cognitive dissonance that's your perfect example all right um here's something I would like to see somebody ask a representative of black lives matter and or whoever supports the protesters and that point of view I don't know if you'll ever see this it has something to do with the way interviews are done but here's the question that I'm really curious about and it goes like this and pretend that

[19:39]

and it goes like this and pretend that you are a representative from black lives matter and you have to answer this interview question and I say to you representative of black lives matter I've seen all your seeing some of your demands maybe most of them and I hear what you're saying about police brutality etc but what I haven't seen yet is can you paint me a picture of what a future looks like should black lives matter get what they want what does it look like when you've dismantled white supremacy can you tell us you know who has what kind of jobs who's in charge how our decisions made and what is driving the economy does this still look like capitalism or does it look like some modified version so to ask somebody who's with the protesters to describe their future and remember don't limit it to police police action although you'd want to

[20:39]

police action although you'd want to know about that too yeah Kanye says you should be like what Conda I don't know what that meant but it's probably a good model so have have the people who want to change describe what things look like after the change because they're going to be holes there and those holes are going to be really big and here and let me surprise you and say this if they can describe the future in a way that makes sense I'm all-in why wouldn't I be right suppose and I don't think this is going to happen but I want to open your mind to the possibility of the other side the people that you don't agree with I'm guessing most of you are not with the protesters on all the details I want to open your mind to the possibility because you should do this in every case not just this case just to open your mind to the possibility that there might actually be a good argument there and just you

[21:40]

a good argument there and just you haven't heard again so one could imagine there's some smart person from the right says you know nobody's really articulated this right but let me paint you a picture of what the future looks like you've got robots coming so capitalism isn't going to work the way it used to because the owners of the robots would eventually own everything so so we know capitalism isn't going to work in the future because the robot situation will create some kind of a universal basic income problem there'll be a lot of disruption so the first thing I'd say is ok ok you have my attention I do believe that the robots will eventually make a big disruption in capitalism and much the way you say we don't know it'll go that way but okay give me the rest and then you imagine that they paint you a picture in which you've maintained enough incentives that people will work that's the hard part I don't know how they would do that but they describe a future where it lives better is it possible maybe maybe I would I

[22:43]

is it possible maybe maybe I would I would tell you that in these situations where you're absolutely dead certain that your point of view is the better one every once in a while just do what I did just try to imagine you're wrong it's really useful because someday you might need to change your mind and you don't want to do what the Biden supporters have done which is create a trap for yourself that you guarantee your own future hypnosis in other words the people who is supported by it in while they knew there might be something wrong had set themselves up to be in cognitive dissonance if he worsened which is what happened don't do that to you always keep keep alive that little part of you that remembers oh yeah even when I was thinking then back then and I was pretty sure I was right I did also acknowledge there was some chance there's something I haven't heard an argument that is just not made yet that would change my mind it's just a good mental mental balance to keep yourself

[23:47]

mental mental balance to keep yourself in all right let's see so a lot of you know I just threw some wedding pictures from my wedding on Saturday and you can imagine what kind of comments we get so 98% of the comments were just positive congratulations sort of thing and about 2% of the comments were just awful trolls what percentage of the awful trolls were in the profession of writing and the arts almost all of them what do you start noticing that pattern that the people who are not good at thinking and they're just mean and nasty and then you look at their profile it's like Oh an artist and then you could say I doesn't even matter because the opinion of artists are irrelevant let me

[24:48]

opinion of artists are irrelevant let me say that again the opinion of artists people who are just professional artists and the artist could be include author yeah which I include myself in but if that's all you have in your talent stack unlike me I've had you know a vast world experience outside of authoring but if that's your main experience you should just ignore all of those opinions you should just ignore anybody was an artist primarily unless as I say they also have substantial other interests now why do I say Kanye could be a president exactly it's exactly because he's more than an artist Kanye is a creator he's his beyond artist you know artist makes art a creator is just he's just the creator all the time and he's created a gigantic business empire he's produced he's written these you know he's got a proper education etc Kanye

[25:51]

he's got a proper education etc Kanye has a talent snack so if you're an artist and you have a bigger talent stack well that's that could be a good thing but I would say you would just ignore any opinions from artists and you should just tell them that which I do it usually ends the conversation here's one of the ways that I tell whether an idea is a good one or a bad one if you put an idea into the world and nobody does anything with their body it's not an idea that's gonna catch on now I use the body test all the time and it never fails and it goes like this if an idea makes somebody do something that requires them to move their arms and legs and eyes and whatever then you have an idea that can move people because it did you you observed it Oh somebody did something with their body now that thing they do with their body could be protest write a letter you know build a mural based on what you said anything tell their friend by the book

[26:53]

anything tell their friend by the book any kind of action and the other thing I introduced my idea of the digital Bill of Rights an idea that in our modern time there are a number of things that we should guarantee that the original founders the framers of the Constitution wouldn't have thought of because it wasn't a digital world things such as having handled online privacy that sort of thing and I won't talk about all the details but I will note that ghost writer Joshua I hope I pronounced your name right liesecke Li sec who is on Twitter he's been on my periscope you've all met him so it's Joshua liesecke he wrote up for you listen to my periscope on the topic and then documented it and because he's a professional writer he documented it really well and so I've tweeted that you can see it in my Twitter feed in his the ability writes written up now it's written up as an

[27:54]

written up now it's written up as an initial draft of course for a conversation so look at the comments as well because you'll see people start to weigh in and say oh that one doesn't work you know tweaking a little or you know what problem this one might cause those are all good the good kinds of inputs at this point so it passed the Bill of Rights digital Bill of Rights has passed the body test was there somebody who moved their body and this is a significant way and there was so Joshua wrote it up took them some time I think at least one other person tried to compile it and that was what I was looking for so given that it has passed the body test as the comments frozen no it looks like they're working then I'm gonna I'm going to push it through to you know the next level which is maybe try to get a little more attention all right I made an error yesterday in my periscope which I now fact I had referred to Tom Fenton who is

[28:56]

fact I had referred to Tom Fenton who is the head of Judicial Watch yeah Judicial Watch I'd said they he was an attorney and that was a mistake he is not a lawyer or an attorney as he clarified to me and other people did as well so that correction now I think he was an English major and had a bunch of experience after that of course but the the question the topic is masks and I went through it again but I'm getting yet went through yesterday but give you an update so the the topic is whether masks work and tom Fitton had said in his tweet that there's no science to support wearing masks outside of a healthcare setting now there's some people would say wearing a non-medical mask in the healthcare setting would also be a mistake so that would be the non-medical masks but the science seems not quite

[29:58]

masks but the science seems not quite settled in a number of ways so I did a little that I did a little unscientific poll I asked this question and they said did you based on your understanding of the science and again this is just a poll on Twitter so this is not for experts this is just for you to weigh in I said based on your understanding of the science do non-medical masks reduce transmission of virus by partially blocking exhalations and the water droplets the carry virus so that's the question and the three choices were probably somewhat yeah meaning it must work a little bit the other answer was no it's useless and maybe bad so it's definitely useless but on top of that it might be bad and that the other one was it is unclear now the respondents were

[30:58]

it is unclear now the respondents were 56% said probably would make a difference you know somewhat don't know how much but probably and 56% so that was by far the biggest category the people who said no it's useless and maybe it's bad 24 percent so quarter the people said that and unclear twenty percent now if you add the people who said it's unclear 22 the say the ones who say probably those are the uncertain people so 76 percent say I don't know but most of them does say I don't know also say worth the shot you know it was probably better than not doing it 24 percent are sure that it's a bad idea meaning that it's definitely useless and there's also a chance that could be bad so no doubt about it it's a bad thing here's my take on that since none of us are scientists at least most of us or medical professionals and

[31:59]

most of us or medical professionals and I don't think that there is confirmed science about this specific situation which you would need corona virus pandemic public using a variety of face masks you're trying to protect from exhalation you're not just trying to protect from people infecting you you know completely unique situation hasn't been completely tested in the way that you'd like science to test things and repeat it and all that stuff so that hasn't been done so what do people do in the face of unclear information well Tom Fenton seems to have a strong opinion against masks but he wears it fairly carefully I would say this I would say the people who are bad at risk management are the 25% because there's one opinion that you can know for sure is wrong so of the three choices I set it up intentionally so that one of the three choices would be the one that's

[33:00]

three choices would be the one that's wrong for sure and it's this one that it's definitely bad to wear masks now could it be true that it's bad to wear masks yes what did I tell you earlier always keep alive the possibility that you're wrong it's a real good mental exercise could I be wrong well I couldn't be wrong because here's the thing if you're dealing about probability and things go the other way it doesn't mean you are wrong your probability estimate might have been exactly right you know it's two to one in this direction but the one happens if something if the odds are two to one the one sometimes happens like you know two to one but it happens so if it goes not the way you think the odds go you're not wrong you're still right it just didn't go the way you wanted it to go and so I would say that the people who are definitely wrong are the people who were

[34:01]

definitely wrong are the people who were sure about the science so if you had been sure that they work Oh 100% there's no question about it you would be wrong because this is not a situation in which certainty is a rational opinion you should not be certain it works nor should you be certain it doesn't those two opinions are the two that you can rule out as rational the rational opinions are it might work and it's worth a shot or it might work but the risks I think are greater than the possible benefits those would be rational if you're dealing with probability given that we don't know so it I did that to reveal whether people are good at decision making in general risk management decision making and a quarter of the people on this very unscientific poll displayed a certainty in the face of something that can't be certain so that

[35:04]

something that can't be certain so that that reveals very clearly that they they don't have the tools of analysis that you need to have a rational opinion even if it turned out wrong it could still be rational all right here is the most interesting election predictive news that I've heard in a long time there's a little there's some indication that the GOP is out registering new voters compared to the Democrats in the in the battleground states let me say that again in the battleground states in other words the only ones that matter because you know California's gonna go one way you know New York's gonna go one way but the ones that that are likely to be close the ones that can determine elections the so-called battleground states more Republicans are registering than Democrats now think about that at the same time you think that Biden has a commanding overwhelming lead in the

[36:05]

commanding overwhelming lead in the polls which of those tells you more about what's going to happen is it registration in battleground states or is it a national poll and of course we don't vote in a national way we vote state-by-state which of those tells you something well let me give it to you in a different frame in which of those situations can you lie or let's say you can lie in both but in in which of those situations are you far more likely to be lying I would say a poll if a stranger calls you given that 64% of people who answered by unscientific Twitter poll 64% of Trump supporters said that they would lie or they have lied wouldn't you expect the telephone pole or even even an electronic poll with a robo voice could be an online poll by anything that

[37:07]

could be an online poll by anything that you could be discovered and you don't need to tell the truth there's no law there's no requirement it's not even really ethical to tell the truth to a pollster you just don't have that obligation so that's the situation in which lying is pretty much guaranteed we just don't know how much we don't know if the polls are off by you know 1% because that's how many people lied to pollsters or is it off by 12% remember 64% of the people who went through my poll said they'll lie to him they'll lie about their affiliations or the
the references all right now compare that to registering to vote do you see it yet if you register to vote how easy is it to lie well here's the thing you don't have to register to vote for Trump you just registered to vote your party you know

[38:07]

registered to vote your party you know you could lie about your party I suppose Democrats could lie and say haha I'm really siting up as a Republican but I will think many people do that I think people register in the party they really want to register for so I think your your likelihood of lying in the registration process very low and that shows a really positive indication for Trump winning the election at the same time the one that you would assume common sense tells you there would be lying differs so one of them is telling you that he's going to win and it looks good that's the registrations and that's credible and probably no lying in there and not much and the other one they're almost certainly it's got some lying in there if I were a Democrat I would be my pants right now because because those statistics are really scary when you put them together because think about it I've been saying this

[39:07]

think about it I've been saying this forever and I don't know to what degree it's true but it's at least a little bit true Trump supporters do want this to be not only a victory but a surprise victory am i right if you had a choice of Trump leading in the polls from day one and just going to a solid victory so that's one choice and it's up to you you get to choose does he lead from the start and just go to a solid victory or does it look like he's gonna lose again just like 2016 only to win in the end which of those two choices would you pick you know what I'm saying you know what I'm saying all those people who answer polls about who they're gonna vote to they know those two choices existed one Trump all the way which wouldn't be unusual for an incumbent they usually

[40:09]

unusual for an incumbent they usually win or how about we do that 2016 thing to you again but better like how about more of a surprise how would you like that that is somewhat irresistible alright that is irresistible if I gave you those two choices and you didn't have to sacrifice or pay anything you just got to pick commanding lead or surprise you know you'd pick the surprise by majority anyway some of you wouldn't want this dress but I think if you have a choice you'd like the surprise to invite cause our revolution but that's another problem there are some doctors who are saying that the number of positive test results for coronavirus may be skewed by the debris from a virus that you used to have and

[41:09]

from a virus that you used to have and was defeated by your natural defenses because apparently you we have some people have natural defense because they've had something like a corona virus or something like this particular one enough so that maybe it's maybe people have immunity and it's destroying the virus and the test is just picking up the broken virus of something you don't really have because he used to have it but it never became symptomatic you because you have immunity and therefore you know the tests are all on the tests are over done now the test would be misleading because not that many high people actually are affected or something like that and the idea would be that you could reach herd immunity and a low number of people like ten to twenty percent of the population under the theory that most of the rest have some natural immunity so if ten to twenty have to get the corona virus this year in order to build up an immunity so the thinking goes that there

[42:09]

immunity so the thinking goes that there might be bigger part you know half of the country or something who has some natural immunity and if you add them together you got herd immunity just you want to get to sixty seventy percent to stop something from spreading so that is largely debunked by smart people including Andres Backhouse who I refer to often he's got an economics and PhD so whenever there's some claim about a study I try to make sure that he sees it because he usually weighs in and says ah here's a gigantic problem with that study and you look at his analysis and you go okay it looked good but I guess it's not and he so he's debunk that debunked the idea that that the tests are picking up the the random bits of the virus that's been destroyed because it doesn't happen everywhere so in other words if if this effect were real you

[43:12]

words if if this effect were real you would see it everywhere because there there's no such thing as a country where there immunity would not cause the virus you know debris to be in their body so if humans respond the same you would see it everywhere in every country kind of looking the same and it doesn't so that that hypothesis is rejected but it's out there and even ambassador do you still call him ambassador our Richard Grinnell was tweeting about that science and while it's interesting I will just note that the strongest critic you know the bet the person who's best at debunking this stuff in my opinion calls a quackery now again like I've said and all the other topics leave open the possibility that even the critic is wrong on this one could be maybe but I would say that I would side with Andres on this because not being on his side on

[44:15]

on this because not being on his side on this kind of thing is just a bad play right if you had to if you didn't know anything about a topic and the only thing you knew was andreas back house says it's quackery I'm gonna bet him I'm gonna bet on him because I've been watching him for a long time and he's he's good at just ripping this stuff apart so the administration is throwing dr. foutch en to the bus it looks like trying to make him the the mistake maker so that the president can look better I guess probably a really good play now you could argue about the ethics of it and bla bla but remember it's a political campaign so everybody's being unethical all the time in the sense that they're all lying by omission at least and so that's the administration's take now let's talk about it not from its moral and ethical perspective you can handle that on your own
own does it work is it a good strategy for persuasion persuasion wise does it make sense to make a foul a the anti-trump

[45:20]

sense to make a foul a the anti-trump and make him the one who's causing you not to have a good life because you know he's making you not go back to school maybe because he's a little more hesitant foul she's more cautious about going back to school so I think this is actually brilliant persuasion make up your own mind about whether it's good for the world but persuasion wise I think it's really good and here's why there's nobody on the left or the right who has a good feeling about experts at the moment would you agree that both the left and the right have been disappointed by experts in different ways but I think everybody has some more skepticism of experts than they did one year ago I feel that that's just a certainty and so having a face for the other side is always good it would be one thing to say experts in general have

[46:21]

one thing to say experts in general have not been reliable that would not be good persuasion because experts in general is a concept concepts are not nearly as good as build a wall build a wall is not a concept it's a fricking wall as soon as you hear it you imagine it you can see it you could put a price on it
it that's good persuasion a real thing so when the president in essence is replacing the category of experts which doesn't get any traction with a real person who has made real decisions which affect you you and you and you and you you and I have been personally affected by doctor foul cheese opinions now I think he's probably been more right than wrong you know if I'm being honest if you look at the entire body of work probably more right than wrong but he's also famously wrong on some things that have been in the news which is more which is more important to persuasion so

[47:24]

which is more important to persuasion so when the President and I'm sure he will will say ouch he you know was wrong on X you're gonna look at it look it up and you're gonna say yeah yeah he was a little bit wrong I'm closing China and the president was right so the president is setting up this this duality where you've got the experts who maybe are only trying to cover their own butts by making sure that fewest people die versus a leader a leader has to take the experts opinion but weigh it against economics which also kill people which also destroy their their ability to live you know their livelihood etc so I think this is a really strong persuasion play in the context of an election here's a warning in that term I'd never heard before as we're all becoming a little bit smarter about looking at studies and data and trying to parse the science of

[48:24]

data and trying to parse the science of things because we've had to you would just been forced into paying attention more than we want to and I'd never heard this before it's a term it's called legacy data laundering and the idea is the legacy part is you know past information that's brought forward to today and illegitimately put in it today's result the example would be if we discover the there were people that we should have said were positive with coronavirus or we should have said died but at the time we weren't sure but over time we say ah you know we should take these deaths from the past and we should count them well you can't really plunk them in the past because the past is already past so you might say well we found out about them today so you might plunk them today which would be misleading because it would not only be the people who died that day but you would have added to them the people who died months ago that

[49:26]

them the people who died months ago that you just realized you should have added in the totals now I don't know that this is really going to happen but it is interesting how many new things we learn about what to look for so I would say it's definitely something to look for but I don't know that the data would be that corrupt I mean it feels like an over acclaim to me I don't think anybody's going to put past deaths into today's numbers but maybe they would just look for it the current projections as I understand it for how many people might ultimately be dead from the corona virus in the United States is a hundred and eighty thousand now I remind you that I'd ask people early on the people who are saying this is just you know a bad flu season what number of deaths would make you change your mind you know if at the end of the year you had X number of deaths what would make you willing to say oh okay you're right that was way more than a flu you had to take that seriously and

[50:29]

a flu you had to take that seriously and at least some smart people are were saying in the two hundred thousand range now is a hundred and eighty thousand enough to say okay you said two hundred thousand well 180 is pretty close yeah what do you say still say that's the flu because even the worst flu season was less than half of that so is double the flu a pandemic or is double the flu double a small problem which is still the small problem it's up to you but that's the number we're heading for I talked yesterday by there was a clip of Biden saying that quote our culture is not imported from some African nation you know our culture is not imported from some you know Asian country this is Biden and then he went on to say that our culture as he calls it is European now the context as Fox points

[51:31]

European now the context as Fox points out is hey you're taking it into context the the context was he was talking about the rule of thumb have you ever heard of that so that phrase rule of thumb comes from Old English common law that a husband was allowed to beat his wife with a stick that could be no bigger than your thumb was big around so it can't be any thicker than your thumb but if you were beating your spouse with a stick actually specifically the husband beating the wife with a stick there was only that big well that was okay according to Old English common law now Biden had a larger point about our history etc and Vox was making the point hey hey hey he wasn't saying our European culture was all good he was pointing out specifically that this European culture brought with it this specific flaw and probably others so therefore he should not be viewed harshly because if you

[52:32]

not be viewed harshly because if you look at it in context he is criticizing the European culture at least in part they came here to which I say how does that mean that matter how does any of that matter if he's talking about the superiority of cultures it's racist according to the rules that the left has handed down this is not my rule I didn't make up this rule but if you're talking about the superiority of a culture that happens to be exactly matched with an ethnicity because when he talks about African culture he's not talking about South Africa right he's talking about Africans and black people that's that's the only implication you can get when he says we didn't get our culture from Asia he's not talking about some white people who moved to Asia he's talking about people from that that area and likewise

[53:35]

people from that that area and likewise when he talks about European culture he's talking about white people from Europe so if anybody on the right had said anything like this that any culture had an advantage or disadvantage over any other and culture is married to race in this example Biden's example that would be canceled in a heartbeat the fact that the context was criticizing the European culture doesn't doesn't change anything you can't talk if you're on the right you can't use these words this is stuff you could not say exactly the way he said it you couldn't say that if you were on the right am i right can anybody what any would you back me up on that opinion that he only gets away with this because people are on the left or giving him cover now if you were to ask me do am I personally offended by it I would say no because I don't get personally offended by things it's just not my nature to be offended by stuff

[54:43]

but does it seem racist to me the answer is yeah totally seems racist like not even a little bit not racist in fact it's a hundred percent racist if you were to make a list of the most racist things you could possibly say this would be really near the top right again I'm not saying he had bad intentions he was indeed criticizing his own culture which you generally imagine to be a fair thing you can criticize your own but the way you framed it was flat-out racist and Voxx tried to save him probably did all right speaking of Richard Grinnell he also had an interesting tweet in which he was criticizing someone's created some of the president and he corrected him sandy critic Sam Stein I think it was and he said that that Trump is calling for a balance and diversity in academic institutions so he used the

[55:43]

academic institutions so he used the word balance so look for look for that to see if that becomes more of a thing I think balance is a really good word for 2020 because everybody feels like things are out of whack it's like everything's just a little out of whack we just need some balance if you follow Jeffrey Toobin on CNN there's there's a strange thing that's happened to my perceptions and I'd like to run this past you I can remember a time that before I was following Trump I was far more let's say philosophically aligned with the left I still call myself left to Bernie in terms of the objectives of yeah I'd like everybody to have health care and free education but unlike Bernie I'm good at math so I don't know how to get there you know I don't know how to get there right away but that's another story so

[56:49]

here's my observation that these days when I see that the personalities and the characters on CNN sometimes I see them as having cognitive dissonance but sometimes they just seem evil do you have that do you have that impression there's some people that you see that you say that doesn't look like cognitive distance that doesn't look like somebody's under-informed that doesn't look like somebody who just has a different opinion or different priorities sometimes they actually look evil now my assumption is that this is a subjective illusion based on the fact that I disagree or I just don't like what they're promoting what they're you know what their opinion is and I think my brain is changing how I look at their faces until they look like Dima does that happen to you now again I'm gonna be very clear on this I think this is a perceptual illusion it looks like

[57:52]

is a perceptual illusion it looks like your perceptual illusion yeah if somebody said Jennifer Rubin yeah so actually Jennifer Rubin if I were to say what she looks like again this is not based on what she is so remember the criticism that that comes from me next this criticism is about me how I'm seeing the world this is not a criticism about the people because I can't read their minds and so I don't know that they're evil I'm talking about my perception okay so this is not about the people just about me Jeffrey Toobin looks evil doesn't he am I the only one who sees him Jeffrey Toobin and I think you know when I watch Anderson Cooper Anderson Cooper does not strike me as evil not even a little and I can disagree with Anderson Cooper on really basic stuff say oh I don't think

[58:53]

really basic stuff say oh I don't think that's right I can disagree with him on facts opinions priorities all kinds of stuff but he never ever looks evil he doesn't he just looks like he's different world view when I look at let's say Don Lemon Don Lemon looks like he's a person who has a world view so he's shading things for his worldview and I know he just looks like somebody with a different opinion honestly but I think he's conscious this is just again I'm not reading his mind this is how it just looks he looks like he's completely aware of what he's doing meaning he knows what team he's on he knows how to support them he makes that case he doesn't look crazy and I don't think he's evil Don Lemon to me does not look evil he just looks like he's got a different world view but when Anjali two bins on he actually looks evil what is

[59:55]

bins on he actually looks evil what is that right because I'm sure there are people on the right that literally look evil to people on the left and then other people on the right they think well you're misguided but you're you know you know Ronald Reagan maybe people liked him even if they didn't like his opinions so anyway let me give you a give you an idea of why Jeffrey Toobin maybe strikes me as being evil although we don't know what's in his heart so that's not an accusation he mentions that apparently New York State has a fairly new law conveniently a new law so in New York the Legislature passed this bill in October of last year I guess and in which the New York District Attorney's can prosecute someone that the president has pardoned so in other words New York State put in put in their own law to override a

[1:00:57]

put in their own law to override a presidential pardon in the sense that they could prosecute somebody in the state and it doesn't matter that they've already been pardoned that's a federal level now I don't understand the legalities of that so I got lots of questions but my point is Jeffrey Toobin is sort of pushing this view that Roger stone could ultimately be jailed again if New York State uses this law now even if you knew this was a thing and even if you thought it was newsworthy it just feels evil to bring it up you know it just feels evil to even mention it because it feels like mentioning it makes it more likely to happen because it's one way to test the public you just floated up there well suppose New York State decided to do their own thing you know how would you feel about that so it feels like a test balloon which should disturb you greatly because in my mind a

[1:01:58]

disturb you greatly because in my mind a presidential pardon has to mean something even if you don't like them all right
I know I had at least one more thing I want to say let me just check my quick notes here and yeah it's probably about it I think I hit the big points all right all right I'm looking at your comments and I see Oh Nadler Dan chef yeah Nadler and chef Nadler looks like somebody who had been bullied all of his life and is trying to win one so again we can't read their mind so I don't know what they're actually thinking but the way they look the way they present themselves is Nadler looks like a victim of bullies who was trying to win one finally Schiff looks like he obviously knows he's lying so shift just as a partisan he doesn't look crazy he

[1:03:00]

partisan he doesn't look crazy he doesn't look like he has cognitive dissonance whatsoever schiff does not look like he is confused about anything in my opinion he looks like he knows exactly what he's doing and it's not good all right New York state bail is discriminate discriminatory to poor people yeah this it is Stone should be in prison you know I wonder if there's any alternative to bail yeah is there any way to to democratize that and make it a GoFundMe situation so that poor people would always get bail but that would still be some recourse or bail bondsman to take them back if they jump bail I don't know a federal pardon applies only to federal laws that's true and that's those are some of the questions I have about why this New York law is even special because if if a

[1:04:03]

law is even special because if if a state can prosecute anybody anyway I don't even know why you have to bring up the presidential pardon slaughter meter is at a hundred percent today and the the superior registrations for the Geo here and the reason let me let me give you a reason why I think the GOP is going to out register the Democrats are you ready here's the mental state of a Democrat I hate Trump Trump is bad but I'm also watching these protesters and I'm also watching black lives matter and about a half of Democrats I'll just pick a random percentage let's say half are saying to themselves you know I don't really want to live in a world in which the protesters got everything they wanted so I'm a little lukewarm about my own side don't you think there are going to be a lot of Democrats who say and don't want Trump but my own side is

[1:05:08]

don't want Trump but my own side is scaring me a little bit so I'm just sort of lukewarm on my own team at the moment and Biden Biden doesn't have a brain so so I feel as though the Democrats will be divided into you know hyper hyper interested people but not many of them and a whole bunch of people are like yeah I can see why it's better trust a win but I don't know if I want to win this one so I see ambivalence on the Democrat side which is never a good sign for winning an election now let's look at the Republican side what is the primary motive of a Republican once you hear me say this you will never be able to get it out of your head and you will think that the election has already been decided I'm gonna give you a two-word phrase and the moment you hear it you're gonna do this you're gonna sit back in your chair and you're gonna go oh I

[1:06:11]

your chair and you're gonna go oh I see that now you ready Republicans view this election as an extinction event how'd that make you sit in your chair Republicans view this election as an extinction event meaning that if it goes the wrong way Republicans will become extinct they could lose the house and they could lose the demographic fight meaning that immigration would be a level where no Republican could win ever again Democrats are fighting for something the half of them don't want which is this excessive change half of them don't want what their own team wants Republicans name me one Republican who doesn't think this is a potential extinction event for Republicans and the answer is none none there is not any Republican by election

[1:07:14]

there is not any Republican by election day because that message will be reinforced by election day there will be zero Republicans who do not view this election as an extinction event for their way of life who votes more not even close at the moment this election should not be closed and the polls are going to be so wrong so wrong because do you register to vote for an extinction event even I might register to vote this time and I don't register to vote because I don't think that I know which candidate is going to be the good candidate but I do know what an extinction event it looks like and it's this so if I were to register I would register well actually I might even register as a Democrat and just vote Trump so I'm thinking of doing that my register Democrat because I have some

[1:08:15]

Democrat because I have some philosophical leanings in that direction but not not nearly as much as not in type but just sort of philosophically but not in in operationally but I would vote against an extinction event and I would vote against losing the two-party system as opposed to voting for a candidate because I think voting for a candidate just puts you on the team and yeah maybe at this point I my objectivity is so compromised it doesn't make any difference so I would even I would consider voting this election and I don't vote but it's just not about the candidates anymore it's about the entire system I would vote to maintain the system more than I would vote for a candidate so I don't know if anybody said what I've said yet but wait'll you hear this phrase extinction

[1:09:16]

wait'll you hear this phrase extinction event referred to as what's going to happen to Republicans and their way of life because that's what says think it's an extinction event for Republicans somebody says I love it when you cuss about the wrong things somebody says you're already voting for Biden and your safety no I did say that let me let me clarify I have never said I would vote for a Biden I endorsed him so I can endorse Biden register Democrat vote for Trump and nobody else I mean I don't even care about the rest of the ticket vote for nobody but Trump and I'm still consistent I've endorsed by deny my safety but I also want the system to survive all right do I like the way California is being run I don't like the results so to the

[1:10:17]

run I don't like the results so to the extent that the way things are happening is because of the way things are managed and frankly you can't always know that but it does look like that you know it looks like I would like to have a better outcome so yes why don't you cite don't know what you're talking about yeah you know the other thing is I'm hearing a lot of libertarians and people who are sort of in the middle who didn't vote who have decided to vote for Trump and I think it is this extinction event that's going to make the difference I've told you in terms of in terms of persuasion fear is always the primary motivator so people will be less likely to vote for a new thing that may have some risks than to vote to save themselves from death you know people will vote more for death to save themselves from death all right that's all I got for now and I will talk to you tomorrow