Episode 1052 Scott Adams: Single Parent Households, Biden and Beethoven Both Decomposing, Ye Systems

Date: 2020-07-09 | Duration: 1:05:20

Topics

Find my “extra” content on Locals: https://ScottAdams.Locals.com

Rough Transcript

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Transcript

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• Who caused the current division in our country?

• A new category of FAKE NEWS

• BLM acts like 95% of the problem…doesn’t matter

• Don Lemon talking like a conservative in 2013

• Examples of President Trump’s impressive leadership

• Biden’s platform policies…is he a Republican?

If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.
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[0:12]

[Applause] hey everybody come on in you found me it's time for the best part of the day hey Jack good to see ya yeah we're gonna have the simultaneous sip and I think it will lead off one of the best days of the entire week yeah it's gonna be that good and all you need is a cup of micro glass attacker tells us time to Kent injector flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine here the day the thing that makes everything better including single-parent households poverty pandemics yeah all of that it's all gonna be better in a moment yep I can feel things heading in the right direction it's almost automatic it's because of the simple it really is let's talk about some things

[1:13]

really is let's talk about some things so it seems that Twitter is still either intentionally or accidentally shadow banning people what I don't know is whether it's limited to one side of the political spectrum since the people I tend to hear from the most of the people that follow me I don't know that but Michael malleus tweeted I think last night that one of his friends reliably said that he follows Michael malleus on Twitter but gets unfollowed automatically so Michaels asked does anybody else notice this and he mentioned three names in particular for people to check so he said see if you're getting unfollowed from Tim Poole Michael Tracy or Scott Adams now what do you think happened what do you think happened yeah so we got lots of comments

[2:13]

happened yeah so we got lots of comments people who checked and found out that they had been unfollowed automatically now some of them that noticed it before but the number of people who weighed in and said yes it happened to me I don't think there's any chance anymore that it's confirmation bias I don't think there's any chance this it's some kind of a pocket situation where yes oh yes somehow automatically doing it because you're stuck it in your pocket like a pocket dial I don't think it's a bug because it would be such a big bug that it would be easy to notice I don't know what it is now I've seen some other people speculate as I add that it could be through third party apps that you also have in your phone that sometimes they ask you for permission to post on Twitter which I think gives them permission to do other things as well and I don't know if it's tic toc or other apps but there does seem to be a

[3:15]

other apps but there does seem to be a pretty big problem here I just don't know what it is and a lot of people reported that they don't see president Trump's tweets but I don't know if that's an algorithm issue or something else but if you follow somebody or like something and it gets reversed later especially if it gets reversed months later you can't really call that a bug I mean it might be but and here's the fun part I actually don't know if Twitter knows what's happening I don't think they know which means that it's coming from some source either within the company or a beside but I don't think it's coming from management and by the way it would be insane for management to do this let me let me say this as clearly as possible given how obvious it is and how you know much it has been discussed if you still think that Twitter management knows about it and is

[4:16]

Twitter management knows about it and is authorizing it that would be a deep misunderstanding of human beings I think and it wouldn't matter if it was Jack or somebody else that you you put into this situation I don't know that anybody would risk a billion dollars to do a kind of a behavior that's so obvious in other words if they were doing it intentionally they would also know that they would be detected easily easily detected in fact we just detected it so I think that it's coming from some source other than management but it's certainly coming from somewhere all right it could be domestic or foreign we don't know one of my favorite things in the world now and it's just getting more and more fun is watching Biden supporters pretend they don't notice a problem now

[5:17]

pretend they don't notice a problem now of course there's a different breed to say yeah we see it too we know Biden's losing it or has lost it but it's still better than Trump and when people say stuff like that I always wonder what are they seeing that I'm not seeing is it just the fake news difference because all the things that people were worried about from when Trump was first elected there were lots of concerns but now there were three and a half years into the term you don't have to wonder what he might do because you can pretty well see what he does as a president it would be unusual to expect that he would be different in a second term so I think the first term gives you a pretty good picture of what to expect and what went wrong if you ask people what was the big disaster of the Trump administration

[6:18]

disaster of the Trump administration they will sometimes give you some fake news such as not quite understanding that there was a surge at the border and that the cages that Obama built were had to be used more temporarily nobody was happy in other words they'll give you a story they don't quite understand or they know the context so that's one thing that Trump did wrong which is not really Trump doing it wrong now the kids in cages is a tragic situation but the whole point of it was that reasonable responsible people said it's still better than the only other alternative which is to let kids go with traffickers and you know God does what so so you have one category of things people say yeah look how it all went wrong under Trump but the things they look at are just sort of fake news and at a context things that they don't quite understand but then there's another category that I just laugh out loud when I hear it they talk about how Trump has ruined our

[7:20]

talk about how Trump has ruined our country's ability to deal with other countries what's that based on have you done a study that have you noticed that other countries won't take a call from the United States their ever situation where you know the Prime Minister of pick a country any country just pick any country friend or foe country and Secretary comes in whoever whoever is the you know the handling calls and says the leader of this other country the president of the United States is on the line he wants to talk to you which country doesn't take the call I realized that a call from a head of state would be scheduled so you wouldn't just call out of the blue but my point is does anybody really think that there is a country somewhere who's not taking a call from the United States I don't think that happened how about are there any

[8:20]

happened how about are there any countries that don't want to do a trade deal or at least negotiate with the United States I haven't heard of that have you well you you know Iran is obviously a case where we're trying to put pressure on them yeah so the things that people imagine have already gone wrong are literally just imagination it's just imagination I'm pretty sure there's nothing you can point to this that is a disaster that is not of the making of the news so here's the other big point people make say they say look at race relations to which I say imagine the world where the news was just reported straight without any opinion what would that look like imagine a Trump administration in which you know there was still a CNN there's still a Fox News but all they do is they tell you what happened they don't give you any any interpretation take any story the president called

[9:21]

take any story the president called several countries whole countries will just take that story as our example suppose they had simply been reported as just a fact how would anybody feel about it
it they wouldn't even think about it it wouldn't even be on their mind they probably wouldn't even know what happened even if it been reported because without the opinion stuff it's not really a story suppose you know so you here's the story a reported as fact the president called several countries countries and then nobody on TV adds any commentary what would you think of that you'd probably think oh he swears in meetings that's probably all you would think because you wouldn't even dig in to say well how many of the countries were predominantly brown or black you know and of course it's a fake story in the sense that there's only one person who heard it apparently nobody else heard it you know I think that's the story but also the context was

[10:24]

the story but also the context was changed when it was reported so if you're saying that the country has become more racially divided I would say that's true but what's the reason the reason isn't the president now he does play into it he does things which makes it easy for them
but I think you have to put the blame where it where it is primarily all right
so I saw Biden in this latest video there's yet another video of him speaking somewhat incoherent Lee and toward the end of that clip he does what I call the dementia cover so if you have dementia and you realize that you started a sentence or a thought and you realize you couldn't complete it because your brain wasn't working what would you

[11:26]

your brain wasn't working what would you do well if you wanted to cover your dementia you would do what Joe Biden does let's say you it asked me a complicated question that I might have been able to answer if I were all with it but that's not the case anymore how would I cover it up the way I'd cover it up is I would say I'd ran at a time that's what he does so he'll be talking on you know these live streams and you know and you could tell he just gets lost he doesn't know what he's saying and he'll say something like well I don't want to take up all the time you know I don't want to get into the details it's totally just a dementia cover but we'll all pretend that that's not happening I equipped on Twitter that if Biden wins I look forward to his first State of the Union other thing address state of the

[12:27]

Union other thing address state of the you know the thing okay it's pretty clever you have to admit so I told you I brought in this big experiment to see if I get canceled and what part of it is I'm expanding my free speech and I'm saying the most provocative things you could possibly say but I'm saying them with good intentions I'm saying that politely the other about putting any hate and anything I'm doing and so far I've not been cancelled so baby if you don't show bad intentions and you don't demonstrate hate you can get away with more free speech so that would be useful to know and one of the things I've been saying and that it's by PIM tweet as I talked about losing two jobs because my bosses told me that because I was white and male I couldn't be promoted anymore so I quit both in both cases I quit in one case I was kind of encouraged to

[13:28]

one case I was kind of encouraged to quit but it wasn't because of that yeah you know I I could because they told me I couldn't be promoted so that's my pin tweet that I invited people to give me their similar stories so in the comments there are literally hundreds of stories of people telling these similar things yeah my boss told me white up mail I can't get promoted etc and senator sent him so a few interesting things happen there are some people who believe none of it's true the funniest one happened I guess two days ago I just finished reading the message from somebody who said that their company had just informed them and this is this is this week right so this is that each of history this is this week and I won't give you details but somebody who would send a message say yeah my company just put the word down that our next our next person we add to the organization can't be can't be white because they want to

[14:29]

be can't be white because they want to improve their diversity so I'm just in that conversation and the very next thing I opened up is a Twitter person telling me that they don't think such things happened I I just it was literally the immediate conversation before I opened up somebody who lives in the country who thinks it doesn't happen there's not a thing well they've got a lot of surprise coming to him it turns out one of the biggest surprises is white people don't complain nearly as much as maybe you would expect so there's this massive number of white males who when were together will all tell the same story oh yeah I was discriminated against and it's not my imagination they told me directly in direct terms can't do anything for you you're white and male so I was wondering how the press would handle it because I figured if a somebody as prominent as me and you

[15:32]

if a somebody as prominent as me and you know that that's not egotistical I'm just saying something has a big big Twitter following and is in the public eye when when I say something that is so contrary to the popular view of things it's gonna get picked up and sure enough it was but mostly by small small obscure things and you know some local papers so I looked at one I've got Google Alert set so it tells me if anything anybody's talking about me and the only comment from one was somebody wrote a letter to the editor in which they mentioned my situation and they said my only complaint is you should say it's alleged so there was somebody who believed that I just made up the stories that I was you know I was told that I couldn't be promoted because I'm white and male so there's actually somebody in the country a real person who lives among us

[16:33]

country a real person who lives among us who thinks says that's not even real or at least that I've made enough why would I make that up that would be the strangest story of the world to make up because there's not even one story it's a series of three of them the other one was a TV show which is a little more complicated but it comes down to the same thing and the the fact that I could put that out there and it's being ignored the same way that Biden's brain is being ignored so there seems to be a new category of fake news and it's a category of fake news where they simply act like something didn't happen like it didn't exist and it's really effective because if you simply act like something doesn't exist the the news silo's prevents your people from ever seeing it they'll just never see it so I've made a most provocative claim which certainly would be the whole black lives matter philosophy

[17:35]

the whole black lives matter philosophy theme and and protests and yet and just completely ignored by any significant media and the reason they do that is because it's a total red pill it would break you know just break the whole thing all right
Kanye continues to be interesting he's mentioned systems and designed so he's used those words the system and design and if he's really a systems kind of a leader instead of a goal-oriented leader that would be really strong and I've often thought suppose I were to run for president and it doesn't make sense for me to run for president because there are so many topics that I don't know much about you know I'm just not an expert on you know foreign anything their history anything or politics anything so I thought how would I do that let's say you know in my magical mind I got appointed to be president I wouldn't run but yeah I mean I wouldn't

[18:37]

wouldn't run but yeah I mean I wouldn't campaign but suppose somebody appointed to be president how would I handle things not being an expert on anything well you try to hire the right people all right that's part of it but I also think that having a good system would make sense for example I suggested that there should be a system in the country that doesn't exist for helping the citizens sort through what data which studies are valid and which are not now I don't know if you could do that without having that that referee if you will also be corrupted by politics and bias so maybe you can't do it I don't know but I would like to have at least take a try at a system that helps the public understand what's true and reliable and what's not another system would be continuous testing because we keep talking about how to solve these gigantic problems how do you solve you know education how do you solve you know single parents how do you solve crime and we always treat them

[19:40]

you solve crime and we always treat them like you have to have one solution for the whole the whole country you know fix it all at once but wouldn't it make more sense to have a whole bunch of small tests and say we don't know what to do you know honestly we just don't know but we're gonna we're gonna put some attention into a test in Chicago we'll do a test here and you know Jacksonville will do a couple tests in some different places and we'll just find out we'll just find out what works so that would be good and then I noticed unrelated to Kanye or yeah if you prefer unrelated to his run for president you may know there was a story where he'd built some experimental housing and some neighbors complain because there was too much construction noise and he actually just tore him down did you hear that story it was maybe a year ago so Kanye I guess got some

[20:41]

year ago so Kanye I guess got some designers or architects or whatever built these sort of dome-like structures I think there may be three of them and then when the neighbors complained they just destroy them I just took away but it looks like he's rebuilding in another place because I saw some pictures that look newer and it looks like he's interacting if what Kanye is doing is he's starting with the assumption that the first one won't be it and it might not be the second one that might not be the third one if he's going full Thomas Edison on this he's one of the most important people in the world let me say that again if what Kanye is doing is consciously iterating these shelters like Thomas Edison iterated the light bulb until he found a filament that worked if that's what he's doing and so far we've just seen two iterations I think I'm kind of low information here but it looks like that's what's happening if that's what he's doing it's the most important thing

[21:42]

he's doing it's the most important thing happening in the country because because it's iteration a system if you will that can get you to knowing how to build inexpensive shelters and if that's what Connie is doing here's his argument for being president just gets pretty strong right so we'll keep an eye on now all right so here's what I'm concerned about with black lives matter among yeah I guess there was lots of stuff to be concerned about but it seems to me that they don't have a good sense of priorities and I put a little whiteboard graph on Twitter in which I showed a large bubble diagram and most of the bubble you know 95% of the bubble was labeled schools are

[22:43]

the bubble was labeled schools are racist and then a little 5% of the bubble I labeled everything else you know every other problem basically so here's what I mean by that while there are lots of things where you would find systemic racism if you look for it especially in outcomes you'd find it in the judicial system you'd find it in an employment you'd find it all over the place but the way I would look at this is in terms of where the biggest impact would be if you could fix it fixing things after people are 35 years old is really hard fixing things when they're first born so that they get a good get a good start in life there's going to be a much higher impact so if I were a black lives matter and I cared about black lives I would be ignoring the police shootings which the studies don't really support is even real now let me say that again the studies do support the black

[23:44]

again the studies do support the black people are killed by police as in a higher percentage than their population but not a higher percentage than the number of people were stopped it makes complete sense because high crime Daria's you have a certain characteristic so so that's so the the biggest thing the black lives matter is protesting against probably isn't even real but the part that everybody agrees is real
is that school and maybe the family unit we'll talk about that are the most important things to get right but you don't hear black lives matter talking about school and the family unit too much dear why is that if ninety five percent of the problem is that early life experience why is black lives matter acting like ninety five percent of the problem for their own people don't matter they're literally treating ninety

[24:47]

matter they're literally treating ninety five percent of the problem like it doesn't matter they've identified the only thing that doesn't show up in statistics which is that police are targeting black people for death it's the only thing you can't find in this statistics and they've targeted that I think that tells you that they're not about helping black people now I'm not saying they don't want to help black people but it's obvious that whatever their motive is it's not it's not primarily about helping black people there's there seems to be a political motive because going after the police gets you to closer to a revolution if you know what I mean if your if your objective was to change the nature of the country going after the police might be a good way to do it if your objective is to make life better for black citizens in this country you'd go after the school and you would just forget about everything else because if

[25:50]

forget about everything else because if you fix the schools and I'm going to say that the family situation in the school are kind of blended because it's hard to separate those two things but if you fix that stuff would you have as much trouble in twenty years shall we say with with anything you know wouldn't it fix everything now you're still going to have racism as I like to say every ten minutes can never go away it's like rain but you can buy an umbrella right so the umbrella in this case in my analogy would be an education or training or as jail or not being on drugs don't join a game you know there are simple things you can do to stay out of the rain but you can't you can't make rain to happen that's not an option you can't make the rain stop and you can't make human brains no longer biased in a whole variety of ways race is just one of infinite ways that your brain is biased you can't remove bias you can teach

[26:52]

you can't remove bias you can teach yourself to overcome it you can have laws you can have you know you can do a lot of things to reduce it or to make it less important but you can't get rid of it and so even trying to get rid of it shows that maybe there's another motive because it doesn't even make sense
let's talk about the biggest question conservatives especially and even I think Don Lemon would agree with this at least the Don Lemon of years ago you've all seen there's a video of Don Lemon in 2000 whatever but I think seven years ago and he was essentially talking like he conservative but he was doing it on CNN so just you look at it you like what who was this guy so he was criticizing the black community from the perspective of being a black man and he his criticisms were really close to what any

[27:54]

criticisms were really close to what any conservative would say which is the shocking point is things that I think he couldn't say in 2020 without being cancelled but I would like to question this let me tell you what we do know we do know that there's a really strong correlation between kids who grew up in single-parent homes and then the future propensity for a crime so we know the correlation is really strong if you only have one parent your odds are going to jail are really high compared to other people and we know that if it affects economics and you know grades and drugs and basically everything so having one parent correlated with basically everything bad so what do you do with that knowledge what do you do with it so that you've found something that looks like it's important what do you do how do you fix that does anybody have an idea how to

[28:55]

that does anybody have an idea how to fix that well the way that people want to fix it is simply by talking about it a lot maybe if we talk about it a lot black people will collectively say oh that's the problem you should have told us before why didn't you tell us earlier now we know that's all are you kidding me
me we can fix most of our problems just by doing that simple thing Thank You white people for finally giving us the secret information that helps us fix everything I don't think that's going to happen because whatever it is that's causing you no greater single parenting in some communities obviously isn't something that they simply choose to do or choose not to do because they're thinking about the future of their children etc there's a whole bunch of stuff going on and I don't think that we can sort out yeah I

[29:58]

don't think that we can sort out yeah I don't think we can sort out what it is about having that second parent and they usually usually the studies focus on the parent that's missing being the the father the dad and let me ask you this why does the presence of a father make a difference what what is your assumption about why having a father is so highly correlated with better success of the kit well the things that are obvious would be disciplined would the father be more effective disciplinarian especially two young boys maybe yeah I mean that's a reasonable thing too so how about role model is it that there's a good role model in the father and then the kid picks it up here's what I would like to add to the conversation
we've been watching in 2020 every study and every expert being wrong about

[30:58]

and every expert being wrong about everything good can you agree with that so far would you agree so far every expert every study is either a highly questioned because there are other experts with other studies or they're critics of those studies it's either dead wrong or at least it's highly questioned by other experts what do you take the general statement that in 2020 we have all collectively learned that everything we thought was true because of the science and the data told us it was doesn't mean anything so so if you're a conservative you say Scott we haven't figured out there are all these studies that show this strong correlation with the father not being there being a big problem so we've identified the problem have you have you because if you have and I'm not saying you haven't I'm just giving you some context if it's true it would be the

[32:00]

context if it's true it would be the only thing the experts got right this year is that is that your belief is it your belief that all the other stuff you watched from probably from climate change - god knows what that all of that seemed wrong to you and that the police shootings numbers they were looking at the wrong ratios mass worker they doubt hydroxychloroquine works or it doesn't the death ray for the virus is either high or low all of it you saw just about everything else being wrong but is it your belief that on this one point science is pretty solid is that what you believe now you could be right I'm not telling you wrong I'm just telling you that you would have to factor that in why is it you think this is the only thing they got right let me suggest there are some reasons why it might be

[33:01]

there are some reasons why it might be wrong without claiming it's wrong all right so this is not a claim that that causation is wrong simply a question just putting it out there number one are there other countries with other other situations in which the single parent does find do you know that is there say some other country where everything just works out fine if you're a single parent probably not because being a single parent parent almost guarantees they have less money we know that poverty is highly correlated with being a single parent poverty alone would poverty alone cause less discipline in the child I think so because if you put any kid in a you know poverty community they're gonna start

[34:03]

poverty community they're gonna start acting like the other kids because the peer pressure overwhelms the parental influence let me say more about that those of you who have raised two children let me ask you this you you got to witness how much was genetic and the kid because there are things that the kid is doing when they're three years old that tend to be their permanent personality and you can see it early and you see you've got some kind of a sense if you've raised kids oh yeah this this amount of the personality was kind of baked in that you've also seen all right we taught them these behaviors and then you get to see if they stick so for example that parents may have taught them good habits brushing their teeth etc and you can see if those stick and then you could say okay that was my parenting I gave them that a habit is stuck you could say you caused them to

[35:04]

stuck you could say you caused them to be timely I think my mother was a big cause of me being obsessed about being on time for stuff so I think that feels to me like something that came directly from a parent and became permanent likewise I would say that my father and my mother's example of hard work and having multiple jobs and stuff probably had an influence on me I feel it but that can also be genetic as well so but then the kid goes to school so here's the part I'm getting to so then your kid goes to school you know they're eight years old nine and ten eleven by the time of your kid is say 14 years old for those of you have had this experience what percentage of their personality came from the parent and what percentage of the personality came from their peers I'm just putting that out there because this is an observation not a scientific study so you know you should you should

[36:07]

study so you know you should you should adjust in your head how a certain you should be about heading this my observation is that the peers are 90 percent of the influence after they become a certain age once once they become friend eccentric which happens around ten years old before that before age ten they're kind of parent centric and they're a little bit more maybe sibling centric but when they hand around 14 is just friends friends friends friends friends and they just become the friends that's the that's the influence so if you say to me these kids with single parents are being that the problem is because there's no father I'd say if there's no father they're in poverty if they're in poverty they're living in a poor place it all likelihood if they're living in a poor place all of the other peers are going to be in a situation and I would think

[37:08]

to be in a situation and I would think it might be the peers that are a bigger influence than the parents but obviously the parents have an influence as well let me ask you this does risky behavior get transmitted genetically what do you think I'll just limit it to this does risk take the the desire to take a risk do you think that that's genetic yep it is yeah risk-taking has a genetic component now let me ask you this is it risky to get divorced it is is it risky to have sex without protection it is would it be reasonable to assume that people who were risk averse would use protection if they had sex and would be less likely to get divorced because they don't want the

[38:09]

get divorced because they don't want the risk could it be the people who stay together have in common among other things that they don't like risk that neither them more to take the risk of being single because a divorce is a really big risk you know sometimes you have to because the risk of stay married is worse if there's abuse but could it be that people who remain single have a higher tolerance for risk people who stay married have a low tolerance for risk and that low tolerance risk is a good indicator of somebody who's going to stay in school and do all the low-risk things now did you hear me say anything rational because you should because that risk gene is not limited to one ethnicity so it is true that poor the poor white kids born to single parents also have higher

[39:10]

born to single parents also have higher crime rates same thing so what do what does every ethnicity that as a single parent likely have in common you know on average each situation is different but on average on average it's people who have made choices conscious choices which fall into the category of riskier behavior so is that how much of that is learned by being in an environment where everybody's doing the same thing and how much of that is because you're just a person who can take a little bit more
all right now I'm not saying that that explains it all what I'm saying is that there may be some simplicity to the unit of father situation and I would ask you this if you could find out what it is about the father that are the key variables could you reproduce those good effects without the father let me give you an example say you designed a livet

[40:11]

you an example say you designed a livet well I'll simplify this let's say an apartment building comes up with this concept I don't know if it's legal but let's assume it's legal just to work through the thought process so somebody takes an apartment building and they say here are the rules 80% of the apartments will be rented to single mothers again so this is the part I don't know if that's legal but just think through 80% will be to single mothers 20% of the of it will be men who are good role models so it might be you might be a police officer but you're single so you get to be in that building you might be a you might be a teacher but you're single I don't know if you have to be single you know that maybe that doesn't matter as much but you need to be available as a role model to the others in other words if you if you created a living situation in which you had role models

[41:12]

situation in which you had role models they actually could even discipline because let's say that the agreement if you live here is that any of the adults can discipline any of the kids and that's just the agreement in advance so you want to live in this apartment every adult in this apartment is your parent a lot of them are adult males there are cops they're educators they're you know might be a lawyer it might be a doctor but they're people who are substantial there are people you would look to as role models it's people that would be you know who you wanted today now let me give you an example for my life my father had a lot of good qualities but he was not what you we call a role model I think my siblings are both watching this and I know you're both laughing right now and what I say that I mean I didn't want to grow up to be like him I wanted to grow up to be

[42:15]

be like him I wanted to grow up to be very much not like him now unfortunately I got a lot of his qualities here but couldn't help that but let's say he was not the most ambitious person in the world and I was born just sort of naturally ambitious so I wanted a different upbringing I found that I just looked at other people as my role models I just decided well okay I'm not going to be exactly like my father I think I'd like to be the lawyer in town and I didn't even know him I just knew he was a lawyer so I said alright I'll be like that guy is that that guy's ambitious and notice how to make money and stuff so I almost simply raised the question and it goes like this even if you believe and I think there's a good chance that this is true that the lack of a adult male in the upbringing of a child has bad consequences I'm willing to accept that that's true but you might be able to find out what it is about that that

[43:18]

find out what it is about that that makes it work and just reproduce it in a non parental way I think the worst approach is to say this is the problem and all you have to do is say you guys just decide to act act like us just just go act like us and then everybody I think everything will be fine I don't see that working I just don't see it working you could sort of wish it happens but that's the end of it there's no process there's no system it's just wishing and wishing I sure wish people in poor communities would get married and stay together I sure wish it would happen that's not anything that's nothing you can't wish it to happen all right I wrote a piece I didn't know how controversial would be controversial a Twitter thread in which I said that President Trump is showing the strongest

[44:18]

President Trump is showing the strongest and maybe best leadership that I've ever seen in my adult life now of course I make it I make it a big claim so it gets more attention that way but here's here's my claim leadership is different from following the experts advice if the only thing you're doing is following the experts advice well you're not really a leader you're more like a manager you know a manager listens to the experts and then implements it and a manager is a different word from a leader in order to be a leader in my opinion you have to do something that the experts are not recommending or you're not leaving if all you're doing is taking expert advice did we need you really I mean do you even need a president because the experts come to a consensus other people implement it so if you've got experts and you've got implementers and the only thing is there's a president in the middle with a rubber stamp saying okay

[45:19]

middle with a rubber stamp saying okay Boop send your idea over to the implementer if that's all that's happening what kind of leadership is that that's nothing so you look for cases where the the leader has done something that is opposed to the experts here are some examples Trump closed travel from China before the experts said it was a good idea in fact they said don't do it he did it anyway he has been proved correct that is clean clear leadership very unusual it stands out because you can't think of other examples right think you think of quickly think of an example of where Obama did something the experts all said don't do like just universally said don't do it and it turned out to be right there might be examples but I can't think of one so you can help me out if you can think of one Trump is now pushing to reopen schools

[46:21]

Trump is now pushing to reopen schools he also pushed to reopen the economy before the experts were comfortable with it I think that's going to work out because we don't we don't doubt that there will be you know deaths and infections everybody everybody there's a clear-eyed about that the reopening the economy guarantees more people get infected we're all aware of it but the experts are saying you know don't open the schools don't open the economy too soon you know be more cautious and Trump is saying very clearly and unambiguously God opened the economy God opened the schools now the first thing I like about it leadership wise is that he's totally unambiguous about it you don't wonder where he stands open the schools open the economy now a president has to see the entire field so while the experts are the medical experts and they're saying if you open up we medical experts will see medical

[47:23]

up we medical experts will see medical problems that's the only part of the question because they're also these social problems which translate into medical problems in ways that nobody can you know quite understand but we all know it's a big problem so the leader has to look at the entire field and he did and he's going against the experts again is he right I don't know we don't know my guess is that he's right you know if I were in his position I think I would be doing about the same thing maybe not as aggressively which is what makes it more impressive I think he's going to be right on closing travel I think he's going to be right about opening schools opening the economy I think history will show him right those are amazing amazing examples of leadership and here's the thing suppose he's wrong suppose he's wrong and and it turns out that opening things too early and going back to school killed 50,000

[48:25]

and going back to school killed 50,000 people that didn't need to be killed what would you say about that I think you would still say it's amazing leadership because nobody really knows what's gonna happen if if the thing you're saying is how often does he get it right I don't know if that's right the right standard because the whole point of the leader is that you don't know what the right answer is but somebody's got to make the decision you don't know and you still have to make a decision so do you do you ding the leader for getting it wrong in the real world you do but you have to say ask yourself well it's not really leadership if you know what the right answer is it's sort of that not knowing that makes it impressive likewise when Trump was leading on negotiating with China all the experts said don't start a trade war they were basically I don't think I saw one expert who agreed with him do you remember that he was basically all alone except for people he hired who would you

[49:25]

except for people he hired who would you know boost his signal but basically people were saying no no trade wars are bad blah blah Chinese good and now months of goodbye and what do we know for sure we know for sure that China will not do its part it might make agreements but not keep them we know it's going to continue sending fentanyl we know it's going to continue stealing IP we know that their apps like tick tock are built as spy equipment basically Trump proved by being a leader and buying pushing them hard he proved that you can't deal with them so there were two possibilities and strong leadership was the only way to get to them one was maybe he was you know maybe China wanted to make a deal and then you get a good trade deal and that would be a good outcome the other is that you prove that you can't work with them which is what happened

[50:25]

which is what happened so China proved that they're not a credible partner for anything and once you know that then you can start decoupling which is happening so we will get to the point where we're being bringing our supply chains which is one of the best things that's ever happened to this country and we only could get to that because Trump defied every expert and pushed through on a very critical issue you know our relationship with China is one of the biggest things in the world and again it seems like it worked take North Korea how many experts told him to meet with Kim jong-un when he didn't have a deal already none maybe none maybe there were no experts who said it was a good idea to meet with Kim jong-un because the expert said he's not going to make a deal and sure enough Kim jong-un did not make a deal but don't you feel safer that does Kim Jong gun to see the United

[51:28]

does Kim Jong gun to see the United States as a military threat and therefore he's preparing to you know strike back no Trump took the threat of North Korea basically right off the table and he did it by defying all the experts he just created a personal relationship and I think I think that plus other activities have proven to Kim jong-un and especially getting rid of John Bolton recently I think Kim jong-un is looking at the United States and saying you know it just sort of does it look like that big a threat at the moment so are you safer guaranteed I would say it's guaranteed that you're safer because he violated what the experts wanted him to do so my theory and I've had this for a while is that historians once you get a you know let's say a generation away you get 20 to 30 years away when the people who

[52:28]

20 to 30 years away when the people who lived through the Trump administration are all dead or at least the older ones I think history is going to be very kind to Trump because all of the little personality stuff that dominates the news coverage in social media will sort of melt away with history history is going to look at the big things he did it's gonna forget about the personality stuff it's gonna forget about the tweets and the little fights and it's gonna forget about the fact checking it's gonna forget all that but it's going to remember about China it's gonna remember coronavirus it's gonna remember that Isis used to hold territory and now it doesn't so I believe that Trump will be viewed by history as maybe one of the top five for sure leaders we've ever had because you have to throw you know Washington and Lincoln and you know Truman and yeah there's people who made really big decisions so they were good leaders as

[53:30]

decisions so they were good leaders as well but I think you'll be in the top five presidents easily I don't know if does that get you our Mount Rushmore top five can they make another another space all right we're still confused about why fatalities are dropping despite infections Gaga now the obvious explanation is that it's young people who are getting infected but the second explanation is we're getting better at treating it and maybe a third explanation is that it's it might be mutating or has already infected the people most likely to be infected or or there's some kind of herd immunity from other other coronaviruses that has an impact fact is we don't know we just don't know we just don't know exactly why the death rate is falling while the feet will their infection rate is skyrocketing probably most of that has to do with young people that's my guess because they get infected but they

[54:32]

guess because they get infected but they don't die you may be aware that there are two complete worlds that have formed around face masks in one world you can see lots of references to studies that show that face masks don't work meaning that they don't have any effect then you'd be better off without them and then there's another world where duh it's obvious they work and all the science proves it and here it is we can show you right here those are existing simultaneously and they're both referring to science what good is science if reasonable people and I'm talking about educated people doctors you know people who know their stuff what good is the science if it's opposite you you can pick your science and find out that it has no impact and then you can pick your science and find out totally totally has impact now I think the way the reason that it's allowed to exist in other

[55:32]

that it's allowed to exist in other words the reason these two worlds can exist it's because the world this has Mesa the face mask don't work they inject a little clause in there that if you don't look closely you don't find it and it looks like this it has not been proven they're face masks work in terms of coronavirus and maybe other things now is that the same as saying face masks don't work it's not because nobody has really done a test of face masks you know different ones used for the corona virus in this specific situation etc hasn't been tested but does it make sense that having a barrier that slows down how far the droplets go assuming that it might be airborne or at the very least that's getting on surfaces does common sense tell you it's got to work a little bit yes but what good is science

[56:33]

little bit yes but what good is science if you've got all this science and smart people still take opposite sides and they're both looking at science what's that tell you about science right there's a professor at Stony Brook you've heard of him before helmet nor pause and apparently he's been the most accurate predictor he's got a model that predicts who's going to be President and it's correctly predicted five out of the past six elections and and every single election but - and the last hundred eight years and the technique he uses is he ignores the polls and he looks at primary results and his theory goes roughly like this somebody who dominated in the primaries shows that there's a lot of base enthusiasm and that's that's a good predictor of who wins if somebody limps through the primaries and manages to get nominated they're gonna lose so that's

[57:34]

nominated they're gonna lose so that's basically that the idea is that if you limped through the primaries that's not a strong enough show of grassroots support so you're almost certainly gonna lose how accurate is this model well as I said it's been wrong twice but look at the two times it was wrong one of them was the Kennedy election if you know your history what was unusual about the Kennedy election the Kennedy the election was rigged the Kennedy senior literally got the Mafia to rig elections in some of the places that made the difference so the kennedy election the model didn't get right but it would have gotten it right if it hadn't been it had not been a rigged election think about that the other one had got wrong is it said that that Gore would beat bush and you remember what happened the gore versus Bush it went to the Supreme Court and it still looked like it was stolen yeah right so the two times his model

[58:36]

yeah right so the two times his model didn't work it kind of did work it's just that the there was something that was a little suspicious about the election process itself so his model is close to a hundred percent effective and and he says you can completely ignore the polls even this close to election you know historically the polls this close to election are just random they're actually just random so that's his prediction what's interesting is that we have three people running for president if you count Kanye West and all three of them are running as Republicans what what Scott what do you what are you talking about Biden's not a Republican obviously duh or is he as of today he apparently had a little committee set up to negotiate with the progressives in his party to see if they could come up something that the less progressive people and progressives would get behind so some of that's been done and here's

[59:38]

so some of that's been done and here's what's happened Biden is no is not in favor of Medicare for all so Biden is not in favor of probably in my opinion the single most important thing that the left wanted which was health care for everybody and Biden is not on board and that's the best they could negotiate with him so whoever is is doing the negotiating they've decided on something that apparently is better for winning elections because if Biden had come out with full you know health care for everybody pretty much he would have been done yeah he had to come up with something a little more closer to a Republican thing so it it doesn't become a negative for him when he's running here's the one that's more interesting though you remember the green New Deal was gonna transform the economy well apparently that's off the table now so by then we'll not be putting in the platform so that you know the Democratic

[1:00:40]

platform so that you know the Democratic platform and the presidential candidate at this point become one in the same for the most part and at this point it doesn't look like the green New Deal is even going to be in the Democratic platform now when I say the green New Deal I mean the one where airplanes are grounded and and and fossil fuels are phased out really soon and you know although all the stuff that would be the most dangerous so that stuff's just not in the in the plan anymore now he's going for something that is better described as more aggressive goals to get to net zero carbon emissions what does that tell you huh read between the lines let's say so it's not the green New Deal which is tell you to get rid of fossil fuels and all that stuff just not that but he wants to go for a more aggressive net zero carbon emissions huh what would be the only way you could do

[1:01:42]

what would be the only way you could do that effectively is it by lots of solar panels is it by windmills is it by nuclear energy I think that it's silent on nuclear energy but I think Biden just became a Republican because it's looking to me like Biden's health care plan is indistinguishable from the Republican plan let's keep things the way they are and try to improve it basically a Republican plan and if he's trying to get to net zero carbon emissions add a more you know more aggressive rate there's sort of only one way to do it there's just one way the Republican way so I think Biden is just becoming a Republican weirdly so that would mean in Kanye's a Republican he says he would run as a Republican if

[1:02:44]

he says he would run as a Republican if Trump were not already Trump's a Republican the sort of we got three Republicans running for president is that what happened I don't think so all right that's his best chance for winning though Biden is to be a little more moderate all right that's all I got for now Biden wants to defund the police no he doesn't Biden does not want to defund them he may want to improve them in some some way but these you know even even Republicans would be in favor of improving policing just show them a proposal that's worth testing again you don't have to be in favor of any of this defund the police stuff you could be in favor of testing just say let's try it if you've got an idea for taking some of that budget and moving it to some other kind of thing that you might get a better result let's try that in Cleveland see what happens all right somebody says why is Trump not pushing nuclear I would say that's just a

[1:03:46]

nuclear I would say that's just a mistake so there's you don't have that you don't need a reason for a mistake right so I would say that Trump not pushing new we're probably he's not fully informed on it is my guess probably doesn't have the best information but it's also possible that it's one of those single issue topics that can cause you to lose an election you know there might be people who don't care about anything except they don't want nuclear energy maybe I don't know it can't be that many people who would be single issue voters on that but so there might be a political motive that I don't know of but it looks like it's a politically losing position and it's scientifically losing and it's planet losing so if you're asking me why would why would Trump not be promoting nuclear energy when it seems to be good on every way that anything can be good literally every way that something can be good it

[1:04:48]

every way that something can be good it just looks like a mistake now the Energy Department under Trump is actually very aggressive so if you look what the administration is doing it looks like the right stuff I mean it's it really looks like they are going energetically after figuring out how to test the newer devices and stuff like that but why he doesn't personally talk about it I don't know it looks like just a mistake to me so maybe you will that's all for now I'll talk to you tomorrow