Episode 1051 Scott Adams: If You Can Read This, I Have Not Been Cancelled. Let’s Push it Farther.

Date: 2020-07-08 | Duration: 57:18

Topics

Find my “extra” content on Locals: https://ScottAdams.Locals.com

Rough Transcript

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Transcript

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• A cabinet position for data analysis

• Institutional racism is 95% the teachers union

• NBC Universal will discriminate by race and gender

• Kanye’s genius party name and slogan

• President Trump’s coronavirus math is correct

• Kayleigh McEnany Neuters “dark and divisive”

If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.
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[0:14]

hey everybody come on in we're gonna fix everything today yeah you may have noticed there are quite a few problems in the world and a lot of people sleeping in today and not trying to solve them but not me I'm up early the crack of 4:00 a.m. every day sometimes earlier trying to fix all the problems in the world I think I'm getting close we're almost there today I think I'm gonna push it over the edge unless I get cancelled always a possibility but first what do we need to do you know it's called the simultaneous up it's the best part of your day it really is and all you need is a cover Margaret glass a tankard shelters dying to contain Jagger flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure that dopamine the other day the thing that makes everything better including the economy of the coronavirus racism you name it it's all gonna be better with this sip

[1:17]

it's all gonna be better with this sip go hmm you know you might not be able to measure the difference but I think you can feel it all right let's talk about all the things it's starting to look like tick tock is toast so Mike Pompeo suggested that he didn't want to get in front of the president in talking about tick-tock but they're looking at it now when you say I don't want to get in front of the President that means he's already decided they must be just figuring out I had to do it and one of the things that happened was that the stock for snapchat just zoomed yesterday now full disclosure I owned some snapchat stock not much compared to you know my portfolio but I bought it I don't remember two years ago or

[2:18]

don't remember two years ago or something when it was at a low and it just zoomed up because it and I was even saying this yesterday to Christina I said why doesn't snapchat just copy Tic Tacs feature and just put it out of business because that's sort of a common thing that you know snapchat and Instagram and Facebook all do if somebody has a killer feature the others eventually just copy it so what is there about tic toc that can't easily be copied nothing except the network right the only thing about tic toc that's hard to copy is that they already have a big audience so you've got somebody to talk to but so does snapchat the number of people will have tic-tac and don't have a snapchat it's probably not that big snap get snapchat could just put that tick-tock function in there and that's it that's that and I would expect that to happen and again I own some of their stock so you should take that into

[3:19]

stock so you should take that into consideration beanie I'm not trying to pump up the stock price but I think that's inevitable it's going to happen
how about we forgive all dead people and maybe move on with our lives without them is that anybody in favor of maybe just letting dead people be dead and just say you know you weren't perfect but guess what in 200 years when people look back in US what are they gonna say do you think in 200 years people are gonna look back at today and say you know in 2020 those were some wise ethical morally proper people I'm sure glad we built a bunch of statues of those people from 2020 because they didn't do anything that we find abhorrent today I don't think it's gonna go that way so while we cannot forget or overlook the flaws of

[4:21]

cannot forget or overlook the flaws of our ancestors maybe we should just forgive them and move on how about just living in the future or the present you just don't live in the past anymore I've told you before that I just can't get interested in symbols I'm just not that interested in the people kneeling and complaining in the statues and stuff I'm opposed to statues if they're offensive to a big portion of the public but I just can't personally be interested I don't know why it seems like it's the biggest thing in the country and yet I just I just can't find any reason to care it if a statue gets destroyed I mean at least I don't care any more than I would care about the equivalent dollar value of any private property I mean I don't want to see property destroyed but statues the statue that's just me so I'm just telling you that I'm not invested in the question but I think maybe we should

[5:21]

question but I think maybe we should move on and not care so much about the past I think it's a good sign now some people have said a getting rid of all your cultural references of the past your statues and whatnot is step one in revamping the whole system you know first you scrub it of all these it's all the symbolism and then you can get down to the the gears of it and start changing it and maybe that's what's happening maybe this is step one of some slippery slope maybe but here's here's the other possibility the other possibility is that the reason that the statues are being attacked is that that's the only thing they can attack could it be that the statues are being and the symbols are being destroyed because there's nothing else they can do there's just nothing else there's nothing after that because what do you do next one of the things which is impressive in

[6:24]

one of the things which is impressive in my opinion is that the black lives matter of protesters not counting there's always there always gonna be a few bad eggs and some people had some weapons and stuff but overall they're not showing up with open carry they're not you know for the most part the protests are overtly trying to be peaceful even though there are bad elements that of course show up and make it not so which is kind of impressive actually that it's gotten this far but it kind of tells me that the people on the left don't feel they have any leverage to do anything that matters and if you can't do something that matters but you have all this energy and it needs to do something well there are only two possibilities you do things that matter or things that don't matter that's that things either matter or they don't and if you can't do anything that matters and you have all this need to you know get your energy out and your your complaints it's gonna go somewhere that isn't helpful

[7:25]

that isn't helpful knocking down statues I suppose that's where it happened so that's my view of the world that they're just doing the thing they can do because they don't know what else needs to be done I've often said that often lately anyway that the biggest problem in the world is that we're all bad at measuring things let me say this as clearly as possible there are no politicians and there are no citizens almost now I'd say 99% this is true there's going to be the 1% that I'm going to talk about but this is 99% true that you and I and all the people watching this we're not good at analyzing things but we kind of think we are because we latch onto some statistic that came from our side we go home well that's the one thing I need to know that one statistic but if we've learned

[8:26]

one statistic but if we've learned anything in 2020 is that the data is wrong I don't even have to tell you what topic I'm talking about I'll just make a general statement and watch how right I am here's my general statement that data you just showed me it's wrong I don't even know what the data is I didn't even need to look at it I don't even know what topic we're talking about but can I say with some confidence that your data is wrong yes I can unfortunately I can would you bet against me the very next person who comes to me like I'm just sitting here in my chair and would you take this bet that the very next data I'm exposed to whatever it is I either look at it on the internet or my friend mentions it to me whatever it is would you take this bet that the next data I'm presented with is not real its fake or in misleading or out of context I will take that back that it will be wrong or misleading

[9:28]

that it will be wrong or misleading almost every time almost every time certainly over 90% way over 90% so we live in this absurd world where we're all arguing each other you must use data and good reasons use your data and good reasons here's my data oh by the way it's all unreliable and here are my reasons and oh by the way I never learned how to have good reasons and analyze things but we must use data we must use our reasons even though we don't have data and we're not good at reasons that's the weird world we're in we're shouting at each other to do something that we all know is the wrong thing to do now in theory if we had good data and we knew it was good and we had people who were good at reasoning good at analyzing well that would be exactly what you'd want to do you'd want to take you're smart people you'd want to give

[10:30]

you're smart people you'd want to give them your accurate data you want to you want to have them wrestle with it and come up with some good recommendations you don't live in that world nothing like that ever happens the data is all crap and the people analyzing it are all liars or unqualified they're either unqualified or lying and you can't tell the difference so what do you do it seems to me that there's something that he's evolved in society that would have made the founders of this country the Thomas Jefferson types come up with a slightly different plan government and it looks like this do you notice that there's a function missing in government it's the smart person why don't they have a smart person in government now one is smart when I say smart person I'm just being provocative what I mean is let's take for example Nate silver so

[11:31]

is let's take for example Nate silver so Nate silver I tweet him off him because he is extraordinarily good and not only understanding the statistical pluses and minuses of any situation he can find the errors he can explain the error as well so he's not only good at analyzing but he's really good at communicating kind of rare to have those two skills but his talent stack includes that so he understands politics and statistics and he communicates well there should be a a permanent government maybe a cabinet post that does nothing but analysis now I know you've got the management what's the MPO Management Budget Office or whatever so I know there are entities within the government that analyze things but not really right that Treasury Department might look at taxes and somebody else might look at something else and you know HUD would be looking at some stuff of its own but but

[12:33]

looking at some stuff of its own but but are all the people in all these groups trained that to look at the things are they trained to analyze data are they statistically trained can they put it in a larger context probably not I think there should be now let me propose this imagine President Trump said the following all right this will just blow your mind this isn't going to happen but just imagine it because it would lock down the election for Trump he can lock it down with 60 seconds of saying what I'm going to say now we need a cabinet position for analysis we need a cabinet position for analysis for all of the big topics what a cabinet that will dig in and tell me can you tell me what's going wrong you know what's wrong with this situation could you tell me if the data is right can you compare it to the what other people are saying about the data can you tell me you know do a Snopes like thing to effect check on it

[13:36]

Snopes like thing to effect check on it and make sure everything's transparent so the public can weigh in because you know even even the experts are going to be wrong sometimes so even your cabinet position of data analysis a nate silver like skillset even that will be wrong sometimes because that's the nature of the world so you want the public to be able to weigh in and have calendar points and having a more robust robust process but suppose the president said you know our biggest problem in the world is we're not good at comparing things we're not good at comparing anything just nothing we're not now if you want more a deeper dive on that point you should look at my book loser think the newest one but I'll give you some examples of that as we go all right here's an example how many of you can answer this question I just tweeted this this this morning how many adults who graduated with a graduated

[14:37]

adults who graduated with a graduated high school at least high school with at least to be average were shot by police in 2020 how many people who had at least a B average in high school and graduated later as an adult were shot by the police do you know that do you know the answer that what's how many of them the answer is you don't know you don't know do you know why you don't know that because we don't have a cabinet position where there's somebody who knows how to look at data and can figure out what actually matters versus what doesn't matter does it matter that we would know how many people with at least a B average in high school were shot by police in my opinion that might be one of the most important pieces of data in the country I don't even know if anybody collects that data but I would think it's important why why

[15:37]

but I would think it's important why why do you think that's important because the assumption that needs to be tested is that if you are educated and you have options and you know you have a certain kind of let's call that brainwashing as a child you haven't you have a school that brainwashes you in the right ways let's say they brainwash you to be polite to Authority I'll call it brainwashing but wouldn't you like your children to be brainwashed to be polite to authority doesn't mean they have to you know that they have to trust Authority but just being polite now when I say brainwashed I mean because children kind of need to be just brainwashed they can't make decisions like adults and in fact adults are good decisions either so he just needs a brainwashing because it's a good program to have running in your head alright so my assumption is that people have at least a B average and graduated high school had something like a good brainwashing beginning and I used

[16:40]

brainwashing beginning and I used brainwashing provocatively because I want I want it to I wanted to bother you a little bit because that's what makes the memory stick so I'm intentionally bothering you just a little bit to make this stick it's good brainwashing so if you don't know that then you don't know how much do the actions of the person who stopped by the police have an impact on the outcome that's right we're actually talking about whether it matters that your actions have an impact under your outcomes can you believe that's actually a statement that I have to make in 2022 other adults I have to say you know maybe the things you do actually are part of what influences the outcome so I said this in my attempt to get as close to being castle's as I can and I got no pushback from this think about this think I'm gonna restate it

[17:40]

about this think I'm gonna restate it today but think about what I was allowed to say and I say aloud socially aloud without getting cancelled meaning you're still listening to me so I haven't been cancelled yet it goes like this the whole police are abusing black people during police stops appears to be a completely fake story because the thing we don't measure is whether the people stopped all act the same we act as though you know we're we analyze the situation we say no we don't even need to measure the different ways people responded to being stopped as if that wouldn't matter to the outcome we don't even we don't even wave our arms at it and say well maybe people act differently do you think that police would have a different response based on the way you act how about just the physicality of it how about just that is

[18:40]

physicality of it how about just that is there a reason that women don't get killed by the police so often well yeah it's probably because the police don't perceive that they themselves are in danger and if the police don't feel like they're in danger they're not going to be as aggressive human nature but say you grew up in an inner city if you grew up in an inner city would you put a priority on looking tough I would wouldn't you if you lived in the inner city wouldn't you put a little extra attention to making yourself look tough you might dress a certain way you might make sure that you've got some muscle definition you might talk away the suggests you're part of a tougher group you might actually your body language might come to conform to what you think is it is the right way to act in the situation so is there any chance that the people being stopped by the police

[19:40]

the people being stopped by the police are acting in similar enough fashion across every demographic that the only thing you have to measure is their race that's stupid that is just stupid now what we need is a cabinet position somebody has the skills to look at data and say well if you're not studying how people are reacting to the police stop you haven't studied anything you actually haven't studied anything you've only studied one variable in isolation when obviously the biggest variable is how people act nobody can nobody will dispute this point the biggest variable is how the person acts nobody disputes that but we're acting like it's not true because it would feel racist to say well what are the odds that you know black people act the same as white people if you're dumb about how you present it yeah sounds pretty racist but if you do it the way I did which is if you if you

[20:42]

it the way I did which is if you if you come up through a different experience you should be acting differently in in the same situation then somebody who has a bent history and background and experience why would you I mean it would be irrational to assume that people with completely different context and completely different histories and feelings about the world would respond the same in given situations it just doesn't make sense and if you haven't if you haven't measured it and nobody has it's never been measured I don't even have to check to know that then you don't know anything so we have we have protests that are destroying the country almost entirely because people don't know how to measure stuff that is my opinion how about here's what I think is the biggest problem in the world there are some problems let's say in the racism realm in which you can't fix them

[21:43]

racism realm in which you can't fix them too well if you wait too long yeah that's true of problems in general right if you've got a small root leak into your roof the sooner you fix it the less damaged it'll be so it is true of things in general that the sooner you can get on them it's quite common that that's the best time to to fix them and so in race relations and black America the the soonest you can fix something is early school and childhood experience if we fixed school such that everybody of every ethnicity has something like a good experience and they get brainwashed right and I just like to use this one experience be brainwashed to be polite to Authority they don't have to respect it but you have to be polite otherwise you get your ass kicked so what happens if we fix school and why haven't we why haven't we fix schools well one of the reason is that we don't understand

[22:44]

the reason is that we don't understand that cause the fact seems to matter you know that Republicans like to get rid of government regulation and red tape Democrats are trying to get rid of the laws of physics right the laws of physics say that every cause has a specific effect so Republicans would say well yeah every cause has an effect so if you want a certain outcome you have to act the way that that cause will court will create the outcome let's say for example not going to jail would cause you to have a better life staying off drugs would cause you to have a better you know a better life studying causes you have a better life so Republicans accept the laws of physics that there is such a thing as incentive and cause and effect but they don't like all the government of regulations the artificial stuff so they accept the natural laws of the world but not the unnatural stuff of government just a

[23:46]

unnatural stuff of government just a generalization Democrats are literally railing against the laws of physics they're actually railing against the laws of physics because the assumption that is below everything is that the way people act is not having that big of an influence on their outcomes the the black lives matter frame is that the the big variable is the unfair system that's what black lives matter needs you to believe because their messaging requires that to be the biggest problem so that's where your focus now is it how big is the problem of racism in it let's say the average black person's life how big is the problem of racism compared to and we all acknowledge it's big right so I'm not saying is small I'm saying it's big but how big is it compared to the impact of their own decisions which one of them is bigger and in my worldview

[24:48]

of them is bigger and in my worldview it's a hundred to one the things you do are a hundred times more powerful than racism which is also pretty darn big racism isn't small it's big but your actions are a hundred times bigger they're not even close so it's like gravity if you know if you were to to measure gravity you'd say well gravity is pretty strong I can't even get off the earth you know you need a lot of energy to get a rocket into space so gravity is really strong but actually gravity is a super weak force if you look at it in a different way if you were good at measuring things so strategy matters and let me say this if if we change schools one of two ways actually Nate let me make a more complete picture as many of you have been prompting me in the comments which I saw going going by the big problem for the black community is that the schools

[25:50]

the black community is that the schools are bad if you know if you gave any kid a really strong first you know first several years of education you know the the up through graduating high school if you get that right everything else is going to be a lot better right and the main thing that is preventing that from being right is the lack of competition and the reason there's a lack of competition is because the school unions are very strong and it's better if they don't have competition it's better if they just negotiate to keep things uncompetitive which is the current situation now on top of that there are a lot of schools if there are a lot of schools that means there are a lot of teachers and there are a lot of people who are related to teachers and families of teachers so because there are so many teachers you have quite naturally a big union with a lot of power and that's the problem so institutional racism is I would say

[26:51]

so institutional racism is I would say 95 percent the teachers union if you are gonna make a chart and say all right here all the elements of institutional racism you've got your judicial system you've got your economic system hiring firing you make the whole chart I would say that 95 percent of the impact of a person's life would be the teachers union so that would be the one thing that's destroys 95 percent of your life and then all of the other things added together including the judicial system the justice system the cat cops and everything else all of it added together would maybe be 5 percent so that 5% still pretty big right if if if you had a 5 for some problem in your life you would be bothered by it all the time 5% is pretty big for a problem right but 95% is because you didn't get a right in

[27:53]

95% is because you didn't get a right in the beginning with the first years of education and that's all the teachers unions now specifically any situation doesn't have competition is going to become a bad system that's what the teachers union does they remove competition so if you put that back let's say that the corona virus caused a resurgence and new business models for online education I think that's going to happen suppose that instead of having every teacher who works today becoming just an online teacher which would be the worst idea in the world because you would be taking teachers who are bad in person and videotaping them which is makes them even worse basically so that of course if you're going to online the model you should end up with is that the best teachers in the world are something like best-selling class of makers in other words will be teams of professionals the way that movies are made they'll make a class

[28:54]

movies are made they'll make a class they'll sell it on Amazon or somewhere else and they'll get you know $1.00 per student but they'll make millions and millions just like a best-selling author would make now in that world how many teachers do you need not as many right if it's digital then everybody who takes a fifth-grade class might choose from let's say 20 different teachers who have been you know identified and review it as just the best teachers with the best class so you might only need 20 good teachers for you know 5th grade American history that's that 20 teachers so digital online education should decimate the number of teachers in the long run this is not something that happens next year but in the long run which should make the teachers union less important which should introduce some kind of competition which could be the biggest solution to institutional racism ever

[29:57]

solution to institutional racism ever but how do you get people to actually study and do online education well not everybody has a screaming internet Wi-Fi and a brand-new laptop so I don't know that every kid can learn digitally plus there's a behavior issue there's a lot to be worked out but in the long run I think there will be fewer teachers just because one teacher will handle millions you know the best teacher and that should break the break the hold that the teachers unions have on the schools which should be really helpful in getting rid of institutional racism all right and I think that also there should be introduced a strategy class a life strategy class I always talk about my book kind of failed almost everything and still win big but I talk about it as an example right there there are other books that tell you how to how to have a strategy for life that makes

[30:57]

to have a strategy for life that makes sense now I want to do a better job of explaining why I say companies when they talk about a strategy it's just BS but people need to have a strategy all right here's the I thought of a better way to explain this in in the business world you wouldn't say it's a strategy to have an accounting system right you just say well you just need an accounting system that's not a strategy that's sort of just basic stuff you need to be in business likewise when I talk about strategies for people when I say stuff like you know build a talent stack these things should be as basic as having an accounting system in other words calling these things life strategies is probably too much of a word they're not really strategies they're kind of like having an accounting system if you're a business basic stuff everybody should do now if it's something that everybody should do I'm not sure it's a strategy

[31:59]

should do I'm not sure it's a strategy right so strategy might be a misleading word is there anybody who should not try to have multiple skills that work well together no no there's nobody who should not have that strategy therefore I'm not sure it's a strategy it's more than just a baseline good thing to do all right
NBCUniversal has announced that its new goal is to have 50% women in the news organization they don't say what the ratio is now but they're trying to get to 50% of women and also a 50% people of color overall in an organization now there's no way around that that is public racial discrimination right because they are saying fairly clearly that they're going to discriminate against white people because they need to get to 50 cent percent people of color overall and if we're going to happen on its own yeah if you didn't

[33:02]

happen on its own yeah if you didn't need to do anything actively to let it happen it would have already happened so they are saying we have to do something active to fix this ratio as they see it what could you do that would be active well you could try to you know you could recruit harder and you could make sure that you've really you know done the best putting that net out there so there's some basic things you can do that are sort of generic but ultimately you just have to tell the white people that they can't have the job in the end that's the only way you can get there and so I asked this question which again would have probably gotten to be canceled a month ago I said I tweeted retweeted that tweet and I said challenge find a fortune 500 company that isn't actively discriminating by race and gender in a similar fashion to the way NBC is announcing it plans to discriminate they actually announced it imagine announcing your plan to discriminate based on race and and

[34:03]

discriminate based on race and and feeling no they have no embarrassment there's no penalty in fact they will be rewarded for it for announcing in public that they plan to discriminate based on race and gender that's our world anyway so I put that out there and said find a fortune 500 company that isn't doing the same thing how many do you think I got well I got one suggestion of a company that's actually owned by I guess Chinese entities so you know it was a special case but basically nobody had a suggestion of any company in the fortune 500 that is not publicly and obviously discriminating by race and gender now if you are a if you are a fourteen year old black kid and I were to poll you they say hey hey you know you fourteen-year-old black kid from the city come here come here I got to talk to you instead of randomly going through

[35:04]

to you instead of randomly going through life let's have a strategy but your strategy might not be exactly like other people's so this would be a case where people would have specific strategies except for the the general notion of you should go where they you know you should go where you have the best opportunity which is generic and I would say to this fourteen-year-old black kid in the inner city has anybody told you that if you go for a job at a fortune 500 company which by the way are really good jobs fortune 500 is the good jobs if you went for one does anybody has anybody told you that if it's you and a bunch of white people applying for the same job you're pretty much gonna get that job every time has anybody told you that what would the fourteen-year-old black kids say would he say oh yeah we all know that yeah yeah all we have to do is stay in school get a get a b-plus pretty much you get a job at every fortune 500 company you know within your field how many how many would know that maybe none

[36:07]

many how many would know that maybe none maybe none right I mean I don't know I haven't asked the question so I shouldn't assume but I'm thinking it's none so how much of an impact could you have is simply going to a young person say you know the only thing you need to succeed is just make sure your grades are good you know stay out of jail don't do drugs but basically just focus on your grades your life's gonna be pretty darn good way better than other people way better than other black people way better than most white people you'll be way above average for all people with this simple strategy how many people are talking to the fourteen-year-old black youth in the inner city and saying just do these things works every time or pretty close to every time nobody so if you're telling me that I need to worry about your police brutality I say I'm open to the whole conversation but you have to measure it correctly

[37:09]

but you have to measure it correctly which is not being done and then therefore you have not presented anything I could confirm is an actual problem in the real world certainly the worrying about it is a problem but the actual problem is not demonstrated by the data which doesn't mean it's not there right all we know is that the data hasn't demonstrated it's there all right Kanye continues to be interesting I got I got a comment from somebody who said stop talking about Kanye so much you will be disappointed so you leave now I'm going to be talking about Kanye today and probably more because it fits perfectly with the whole persuasion theme that I like to talk about plus he's interesting so we know a little bit more about his planned run number one he's given himself 30 days to really decide so he's not decided to run he's decided to decide to run and he's given himself 30 days because after that the

[38:10]

himself 30 days because after that the deadlines for for getting into the race are passed in to many states so he came up with a so he's running as an independent he said provocatively that if he if Trump were not in the race he would run as a Republican that's right Kanye said you would run as a Republican if Trump were not the Republican candidate did you see that coming I think you could sort of suspect it a little bit because I think Kanye one of his greatest contributions to the world among quite a few is his role modeling and weirdly enough because you know you I know immediately you're gonna say oh there was that those things he did which were not good role model things but there's there's one thing he does several things he does that are just the best role model I mean just crazy good role model which is first of all how hard he works

[39:11]

which is first of all how hard he works right how much do you want a role model that works that hard that's pretty good Trump Trump was a hard worker too so we like that how would you like to have somebody who has perceives no barriers to his own success well Trump had that right Trump never saw a barrier to his own success and indeed became president Kanye likewise sees no barriers to music he was he was like not an inner-city guy but he still made it in in a field where people thought you had to be he succeeded in the fashion you know gigantically nobody thought that would happen people didn't and now he's running for president and apparently doesn't think that there's anything that could stop them so how good is that as a role model it's great it's great you love to just see more people like that so there's

[40:12]

see more people like that so there's that and then there's the talent stack thing he is stacked talent after talent together to achieve what he's done so these are all just tremendous role model qualities you you know and I know you'll find other things in this past you'll say well what about that what about that and I get that but I think that the big picture is is the art the creativity that the skills the ambition the the mindset everything I thought that's the overwhelming feeling you get from him I think we forgive any small imperfections but so a date you decided to name his party the birthday party that's right so Kanye's party is the birthday party which is kind of genius here's why is there anybody who doesn't like a birthday party I suppose there might be some introverts who don't but first of all when you hear the word Democrat I don't know does that have any

[41:12]

Democrat I don't know does that have any uplifting feeling to it Republican doesn't really feel uplifting doesn't make you happy it's just a word right but would you say the birthday party don't you immediately kind of smile hey what's the name of your party under did the birthday party and he explained it this way he said when he gets elected it'll be everybody's birthday how perfect is that yeah when I get elected it'll be everybody's birthday kind of really really good all right now I don't know if he comes up with all of this themselves or is he not conversation with other smart people but if you look at just the first thing he did name his party kinda nailed it how about the second thing he did which has come up with a slogan his slogan is one word yes and then his name is ye so he's to Thursday yes just with his name yeah and and he he clarified it's not yep
yep it's not you up it's not yeah it's yes

[42:13]

it's not you up it's not yeah it's yes how much do you love a slogan that is so ambiguous and yet so clear because yes is completely ambiguous yes to what what am i agreeing to on the other hand it's perfect because you fill in the blanks don't you my cat is visiting so if you see a tail go by that would be my cat boo so we got a slogan one of the best I've ever seen yes is better than make America great again and that's saying a lot because I think make America great again will go down in history as one of the great campaign slogans but yes might be better it might actually be better so if you're trying to count him out because oh he's not serious or whatever I would just point out that he's in the conversation for the presidency I would point out that

[43:14]

the presidency I would point out that the first thing two things he did were kind of genius here are some other things that will give you pause he's talking about a systems design approach to government wow that sounds like something I might like yeah he's talking about government in terms of design oh no if I've often said that if anybody ever talked about government with those with that frame as a design problem that I would support that candidate because that mindset is exactly what we need really now when asked about specific details he said well I haven't I haven't researched that yet so he doesn't have an opinion on tax rates for example I think that's fair and I like I like the honesty of it you'll say I haven't looked into that I don't know anything about that I'll get good people we'll

[44:14]

about that I'll get good people we'll figure it out kind of like everybody else so Kanye serious I would say probably not in terms of 2020 but it would be very smart of him to have one let's say partial run in 2020 because it makes him the automatic person you think up for 2024 so putting his name in this year is brilliant no matter what happens because it's still a better setup for 2024 we saw with Reagan with Nixon with Trump you can think of some more presidents who have an unsuccessful run but then it's the first person you think of for the next next election so Trump has been getting a lot of fire for saying that the coronavirus fatalities are less than 1% actually what he says is the other way he says 99% of people will be fine don't have to worry about it but 1% want problem and of course the news has said that's not true you are putting fake

[45:16]

that's not true you are putting fake data into the world but is it not true again we don't have a cabinet-level position for data analysis someone who could tell you what I'm going to tell you now which andre has told me so I'm gonna get I'm getting it from somebody smarter if you looked at the total of confirmed cases it's higher than 1% depending on where you are at see them could be 4% but you know it's it's a lot more than 1% if you're looking at confirmed cases but one thing we know with no doubt whatsoever is that the number of total cases is far bigger than the number of confirmed cases nobody disagrees with that and if you were to look at the number of likely cases you know just sort of did the math and say alright if we found this many cases we're pretty sure there are at least this many cases so under those conditions it turns out that the president is basically right if you

[46:19]

president is basically right if you could find all of the infections you would discover that fewer than 1% of them are gonna die so you've been watching the news tell you that the president's math is all wrong when the president's math is all right did you know that you know when when I saw the president making that claim I said to myself oh well he's just exaggerating in his usual way to draw attention to the fact that the risk is low ish so that's just his normal routine but it turns out in this in this case he's actually just right the the entire news cycle has been hammering him on the left anyway hammering him for being bad at math but he's just right and and the public can't tell the difference there's a new bottle coming out which should be no more reliable than all the other models for coronavirus deaths the new bottle says that without masks you might have

[47:21]

that without masks you might have 200,000 deaths by November first and keep in mind November 1st is not the day that the virus goes away November 1st might be the day that the virus starts getting much much worse so the model says 200,000 by November first and then God knows what happens after November first because it's not going to get better unless the virus magically goes away or we magically have a vaccine which I don't expect so and then if we do wear masks this particular model it doesn't even matter where it came from you don't even know you don't even need to know the details none of these models are terribly accurate we assumed that it would be only you something 160 some thousand deaths if people wore masks so that if you do the math or something like a forty five thousand death difference between masks and no masks why is this reported on CNN well obviously they're trying to produce a number that they can pin on the

[48:22]

number that they can pin on the president for being the number of people he killed by not wearing a mask in public you know where this is heading right the whole setup is just to create an actual number from an expert that they can pin on the President as the number of people be killed of course the Republicans play the same game with the with let's say mayor I'm sorry Governor Cuomo by saying well you know he's responsible for X number of deaths and the senior senior care facilities I'm not sure that putting a death count on all of our participation x' is the best way to go but it does help I gotta admit now wouldn't you like to see a data expert look at this new claim on this new model and tell you if you should care about it I kind of like that maybe it can't be a cabinet position because then they wouldn't be independent so maybe there needs to be some kind of independent data analysis

[49:23]

some kind of independent data analysis entity that doesn't have a political affiliation that would be better all right so if we get to two hundred thousand deaths and I don't know if we will but if we do there were people and I asked this question early on I said to people if you think this is just the flu what number of deaths would change your mind and one smart person I asked that question Oh said two hundred thousand so we have this interesting situation where we still have the two worlds where one part of the population thinks the United States anyway still thinks this is just sort of a bad flu and we shouldn't take it so seriously cuz it's it's baseline danger for being a human being in the world but at around 200,000 deaths people started saying okay okay you got me this is not a normal flu that's that's a lot of deaths I think we're gonna get there but we'll see still the

[50:25]

gonna get there but we'll see still the wild card is nobody knows why flus ever go away nobody knows why a virus ever goes away the normal virus this one any they don't know why they go away but maybe that will happen and the funniest thing is that one of the things Trump got criticized the most for is saying that the virus might just go away which turns out to be completely scientifically valid sometimes the virus just goes away and we don't know why so is it impossible that this one would go away well why is the death count shopping does anybody know the death keynote today somebody says our deaths being recorded accurately probably not but they're probably being recorded consistently meaning that you know what if one Hospital is doing it a certain way they're probably going to continue but in total you should see the pattern is either going toward fewer or more so the direction would be more important

[51:25]

the direction would be more important and the direction seems down unambiguously yeah somebody said where's the where's the Spanish flu are you telling me that of all the people in the world that that literally all of them would somehow get rid of it or become immune to the Spanish flu not a single person still has it to continue giving it to another person nobody there's something wrong with how we understand viruses and it makes it feel like we're in a simulation and the virus is just a software update I mean it feels like that because it just has a beginning and an end and we don't know why it has either one I guess beginning we kind of know all right that is what I wanted to say for today note the degree to which I have extended my powers of freedom of speech take note of my technique in case you would have to like to have better freedom of speech yourself number one that always has to be number one if you

[52:27]

that always has to be number one if you want to maintain your maximum freedom of speech without getting cancelled and yes yes I know freedom of speech is about the Constitution it's about the government it's not about the people you you everybody who tells me free speech is only about the government all of you that's you're just living in the past in the present free speech for a practical purposes is about how other people treat you because of cancellation culture so I don't want to hear anybody correcting me their free speech is about what only the government does because you're just living in the past I'm not I have no interest in living in the past with you you're welcome to live in the past please go live in the past if you enjoy it but don't bring me there in the past so anyway the most important thing you need to do to to maximize your freedom of speech is to show that you have good intentions if your intentions are good people will give you a lot of

[53:29]

are good people will give you a lot of latitude because it'll say well you means well maybe that's not the way I would have worded that but as soon as they think you mean or mean wrong everything you say will just sound like it happens to that filter so you see that with President Trump everybody who thinks he means well here's some saying things that don't sound that bad everybody to thinks he's you know evil incarnate they hear everything is the worst possible description oh can somebody remind me speaking of that darkened divisive was the term that the Democrats started trotting out again after Trump's speech at Mount Rushmore correct me if I'm wrong but I thought I heard a clip in which Kelly mackaninee used their own term against them and called the the Democrats dark and divisive did I hear that because if I did and I think I did that was one of the most clever things ever not by itself but imagine if you will that dark

[54:31]

itself but imagine if you will that dark and divisive is powerful that's why they use it because they have advice from people who understand these things and they know it's a powerful phrase if you are trying to take the power out of a powerful phrase that your opponents are using against you how would you do it well one way would be if it's mockable if there was something about the words dark and divisive that just automatically becomes something you could joke about or you could make somebody think about it as a joke that would work but I don't see that opportunity with dark and divisive there's nothing really funny about that right so you can't go the mocking route but what you can do is take the power out of it you know as as jay-z famously says about the n-word the reason you would use it a lot in his songs is to take the power out of it so if if the Republicans started using darkened divisive as a go-to description of Democrats because taking down statues is pretty

[55:32]

because taking down statues is pretty darkened devices right all right I'm getting confirmation that she did exactly that if she continues to do that it completely takes dark and divisive off the table because if you started hearing it as a generic thing that any politician says about the other side is empty she can actually she can actually open that thing up remove its guts and give it back to you as an as an empty empty vessel and she did it once and let me ask you this from the moment that Kaylee McEnaney said dark and divisive as as a description of anything the Democrats are doing after that did you hear any Democrats using it because she might have killed it she may have killed it with one sentence because I don't think I've seen this in sign have you can anybody confirm that there's any national figure who has used the phrase darkened divisive about the Republicans

[56:33]

darkened divisive about the Republicans after mcenany took the power out of it because you know if they keep doing it she's gonna keep doing it so if you hear the Democrats revive that that dark and divisive thing I think the Republicans are just going to revive it at the same time and just neutral which i think is a brilliant play that I don't believe I've seen anybody else smart enough to do so again it's obvious to me that mackaninee is just operating at a different level than what we've seen before maybe ever really she's just operating at a different level all right that's all I have to do for now and I will talk to you tomorrow