Episode 1021 Scott Adams: Lying Statistics, Trump Polls Plummet, Democrat Strategy Debacle, BLM

Date: 2020-06-08 | Duration: 53:57

Topics

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Rough Transcript

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Transcript

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• The look on Alisyn Camerota’s face

• Foot washing protesters and reciprocity

• Leonydus Johnson’s thought provoking tweet

• Van Jones, best choice for police reform leadership?

• Democrat Mayor riot failures, election consequences?

If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.
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[0:13]

hey everybody it's time funk juice good to see you always a pleasure well everybody what a great day today is what a great day
day 63 years ago today i came out of my mother's body so today is my birthday yay shall we celebrate with a simultaneous sip i think that would be an order and all you need to do to participate is find yourself a copper mug or a glass attacker chalice or stein a candy jugger flask a vessel of any kind and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine of the day the thing that makes everything better including the pandemic including racism it'll even make your birthday better but it's my birthday not yours so might not help you at all to the simultaneous step go

[1:21]

happy birthday also to kanye west and to jfk people who share my birthday all right but enough about me let's talk about the world is the world still there all right here are some things for you to think about uh ninety percent of the people who are killed by police are men is that proof of sexism go uh-huh uh-huh uh-huh um now i just put that out there to cause trouble why is it only men who are getting killed by police it's proof of sexism isn't it now when you say uh scott um no because the men are committing the crimes i say to you how sexist of you to say that i just put that out there to cause trouble here's the more uh trouble-causing statistics have you noticed that we humans can't

[2:23]

have you noticed that we humans can't calculate anything correctly and we can't calculate anything correctly we don't know how many people are going to die from the virus we don't know how many people died from the regular flu we don't know what the unemployment rate really is because even that got revised so that got revised up from uh what we thought was great great news to just pretty good news uh the unemployment got corrected up to 16.3 percent and black black unemployment is the highest in more than 10 years according to camellaris and latino unemployment is 17.6 yikes so as kabul harris is saying that's nothing to celebrate about but of course nobody is celebrating the absolute number do you think anybody was celebrating the absolute number no i think they were celebrating the change i think there was celebration for the direction celebration for the hoped for a future

[3:25]

celebration for the hoped for a future but it's one more example of how we humans we should just give up on numbers we should just give up on trying to calculate anything because we always do it wrong or if we do it right the other side doesn't believe it it just doesn't make any difference if you've got good numbers or bad here's some more numbers uh so according to rasmussen and i believe that's coming out any moment now the uh back in 2016 this was the opinion all right so in 2016 38 of voters thought most black americans were treated unfairly by the police so it was 38 in 2016. today it's 51 it went from 38 thought black americans were treated unfairly by the police to 51 during trump's administration

[4:31]

what changed what changed was it the data did the data change no i'll bet not i mean not in three years right i don't think the data changed i think what changed was the persuasion what you saw on television who was the president you know how many stories were run of a certain type what did social media do so without the data changing at all i mean i haven't even looked at the data but i don't think it got worse between 2016 and 2019 did it or 2020 it didn't get worse i mean if it did it's like some small amount but basically it's the same but our opinion of it completely changed so do you think opinions change because of data no the data stayed the same and the opinions wildly changed because of persuasion so if you don't if

[5:31]

because of persuasion so if you don't if you don't see that the data didn't make any difference and the persuasion made all the difference you're watching the wrong world um so let's uh talk about some more fun stuff so i've told you before that fear is the the primary persuasion persuasive force there is nothing more persuasive period than fear because fear is the top of your concerned stack if you're literally afraid at the moment you're going to take care of that first you won't even eat first if you're afraid first you take care of afraid go hide protect yourself do what you need to do and then you eat so there's nothing that competes even close to fear as a primary persuasive variable and here's what the democrats are doing for their campaign strategy

[6:34]

are doing for their campaign strategy they're they're calling for defunding the police at exactly the same time other democrats and i say that more jokingly because i'm just you know i i'm doing that thing that all pundits do
do i act like the the one percent of the bad characters represent the whole obviously the looters do not represent democrats can we agree looters are not representative of democrats even if you think it even if you think that's true for fun it's not true mathematically but it is nonetheless true that in a political season if the democrats are producing two things simultaneously it's not a good look one of the things they're producing is a very powerful and maybe successful call to defund the police so that's one thing they're doing but other people who will be associated with

[7:35]

other people who will be associated with the democrats because they lean in that direction even if they're not registered democrats even if they're not voting is the people doing the violence on videos so we have all this video of what happens when the police are not there which is if i can be blunt white people being killed by black people i'm not saying that that describes the world i'm saying it describes these selective little videos that are running non-stop because those are the anecdotes we're getting so if you're doing two things simultaneously the democrats saying let's defund the police while all of the visual persuasion what uh what do i tell you about visual persuasion it overwhelms other kinds of persuasions that evolve your senses it's not as strong as fear but the visual can be part of the fear of persuasion too of course but the fact that it's visual it's on video

[8:35]

video and it's horrible and you're seeing people just being killed by writers and and and looters breaking store windows you couldn't have a weaker strategy going into the election in fact if you were to sit down and try to design on paper the worst campaign strategy it would be defund the police while simultaneously showing non-stop images of what happens when the police are not standing right there i don't know that that could be worse from their side
am i wrong highest form of persuasion and they're they're creating a situation to scare you to death now if you haven't seen this clip i just tweeted it you have to watch it just for the reaction it's a cnn clip in which uh allison camarado is interviewing um somebody named bender who is

[9:37]

somebody named bender who is in favor of defunding the police and allison camarado asked this question which i think is on all of your minds and here's the question what if in the middle of the night my heart my home is broken into who do i call now here's what you need to watch in that question allison camarado is a cnn what's the right word course host whatever is the right word for that uh host i think and the way she words the question is personal that's important all right because you're trying to understand what what she's thinking as well as what she's saying we can't read minds but how we receive the communication you know makes you think that they're thinking a certain way even if you're wrong so she puts it in a personal form of a question
what if in the middle of the night my home is broken into all right this is very important she's

[10:39]

all right this is very important she's putting herself in the movie she's not saying what if something happens to somebody and somebody you know needs to do something no alison camarado said what if my home is broken into she put herself in the movie now watch the response and bender said yes i hear that loud and clear from a lot of my neighbors and i know and myself too and i know that that comes from a place of privilege
so that was the moment that democrats lost cnn they lost cnn because you could watch you had to see the the look on camarado's face now again you can't really tell what people are thinking by a look on their face but i'll tell you the impression i got

[11:39]

you the impression i got because remember when i talk about persuasion it's not about what's right it's what impression did you get and the impression i got was alison camarado saying thinking that doesn't work for me that doesn't work for me that's what that's what i saw in her face again i warn you you can't read other people's minds she may have had a completely different thought but that's how i received it it looked like cnn was lost on that day because seriously one cnn host with a good income is going to say uh yeah that's a good idea if if somebody is trying to break in my front door that there's nobody to call there's nobody on cnn no not even don lemon is going to be is going to get behind that if you lose if you've lost don lemon well you've lost the election now of course don levin is not going to

[12:39]

now of course don levin is not going to side with uh you know having more police but i don't think even he could say directly and on camera you know this would be a better world if somebody's breaking into my house and i don't have anybody to call that would be an upgrade i don't think he's going to say that
so i don't know how they can recover from that but despite all that it turns out that latest poll numbers on trump versus biden is that biden is just blowing him away so that the difference between biden and trump and the national polls just widened it widened trump just had the best week of his life and the polls widened now when i say it's the best week of his life i don't mean that people realize that i'm just saying i realize it because he did get us through the pandemic and i think he he called the timing about right pushing for the opening

[13:39]

about right pushing for the opening looks like exactly the right thing he was criticized for it um being tough on china looks smarter every day the economy will probably pick up and trump is very directly involved in at least the psychology of that i don't think trump's ever had a better week but i also don't think it registered that way to everybody i'm not sure that intellectually people realize what a good week this was now when i say a good week that includes the looting because although the president did not do something directly to stop the looting think about the fact that you brought in the national guard and it kind of stopped at the same time am i wrong that the looting kind of went from a lot to not too much immediately upon the national guard showing up i think that's true i mean it feels true even if it's not and if we're talking about persuasion what feels true is right

[14:40]

what feels true is right so i think the president actually had one of the highest um almost borders on gifted honestly uh performances with the exception just see just so you know that i'm not just praising trump for everything i think they completely blew the messaging on a lot of this stuff everything from the pandemic messaging to the the protester the george floyd stuff i don't think the messaging was good so i'm not just complimenting everything he does just mindlessly i'm telling you that if you're watching if you're watching looting on television and your choices are the pro law order guy or the who knows what guy the pro-law and archer guy is just going to get a bump from watching crime on tv that has nothing to do with his performance he's just had to exist and be that guy and it's going to help him likewise the economy going up will help trump likewise

[15:41]

trump likewise you know the coronavirus just getting in our rear-view mirror at least a little bit
bit will help him so i think he had his strongest weak but his poll numbers are the weakest and i have i have speculated that this is the biggest practical joke in the history of politics that republicans are literally lying to pollsters in a massive numbers i feel that's true now i can't prove it it's just an instinct but i feel it's true i also feel like it's a long time until election day and i don't know the polls are telling us as much today as as they should because you know they're pretty pretty frothy at this point all right um so let's talk about those protesters washing the feet of black lives matter leaders and i guess police were washing the feet of black religious leaders as well not all

[16:43]

black religious leaders as well not all the police not all the protesters obviously but here was my take on that it's pretty good persuasion because you can't look away it gets your attention and it shakes the box like everything that you think about people and power and racism and who thinks what and does what this just shakes it all up it just makes you think what and it gets you mad or excited or you put yourself in the place but the the trick of this is if you have enough people there's always somebody who's willing to do anything if you have a million people you can get somebody out of the million people to do literally anything you can get them to you do harm to themselves just anything if you have enough people so when you're watching some small number of people do something that you wouldn't do it doesn't mean anything it just means that you're seeing a small number of people do something you wouldn't do that's it so it doesn't have any meaning beyond the fact it really shakes up your

[17:43]

beyond the fact it really shakes up your head so persuasion wise i give it an a-plus because the matter or the more upset you are about it the better it works that is its power its power is that it upsets you so if i'm if i'm just looking at it from a persuasion as a technique a plus yeah if it disgusted you if it angered you
you if you couldn't turn away that's what makes it work so i wouldn't worry about it becoming a trend you don't have to worry about it being a trend you know it's never going to be guaranteed it'll never be required it'll always be optional so this is the power that the media has they can take something that's unusual and give it a lot of attention until you think it's some kind of a normal thing or it's the beginning of a trend or it's happening everywhere it's the smallest little thing that some

[18:44]

it's the smallest little thing that some very unique people could do but you couldn't do nobody's gonna ask you to do it it just doesn't matter so but persuasion-wise it was strong um
i swear to god almost all of our problems in society are because we can't calculate percentages right am i wrong about that like if we could calculate percentages meaning that we knew the right nominated numerator and the right denominator if we could always get that right and then calculate it right and know which one is the one that matters i don't think we'd have nearly as many problems in the world it's like we can't calculate anything right i'll give you some specifics on that
a a guy who follows me on twitter which is no way to describe a person because that's the least important part of his personality is following me on twitter

[19:46]

personality is following me on twitter but i don't know anything else about him so other than his name is leonidas johnson he may or may not be watching this periscope and he's african-american which you need to know for the purpose of the story and he tweeted this and i i presume he leans conservative he says for every ten thousand black people arrested for violent crimes three are killed for every ten thousand white people arrested for violent crime four are killed and then leonidas goes on he says i'm going to keep tweeting this until someone can explain to me how this is possible if there is truly pervasive racial bias in policing so so he's a black man so he can tweet this do you know what i can't do
tweet that i can't tweet that i don't have i don't have freedom of speech

[20:46]

i don't have freedom of speech in a practical sense i have freedom of speech in a legal sense i can say anything i want but in a practical sense my life would just be worse if i had been the one who tweeted this but because leonidas is black he can tweet it and then i can retweet it i'm okay so i did that but i certainly don't have freedom of speech the way black people do
do let me just say that directly i have less freedom of speech than black people would you agree is that is that even controversial because it's true that black people can say more things in public with less repercussions than i can it's not even close really and now regardless of whether i'm right or wrong which is a separate question they're just whole classes of things including data i wouldn't even be able to talk about data in public think about that that i can't talk about data in public

[21:48]

that i can't talk about data in public now i've told you before that one of my advantages is that i have uh i wasn't going to swear today so i'll give you the pg version that i have fu money meaning that the worst thing that could happen to me is i retire and live on the money i already made but because i'm still you know in the workforce and i would still like to have an actual job i like to be productive i like to i like to create things that people want and pay for and i would like to be paid for those things because it just works better that way so i'm finding that i'm becoming increasingly uncancelable if you have fu money you're uncancelable but if you also care about your ongoing career you're not you're not completely uncancelable because i'd still like to be a cartoonist i'd still like to be able to come on video and talk to you i still like people to buy my books so

[22:51]

i still like people to buy my books so i'm not completely uncancelable but i'm getting closer because i always talk to you about locals the new platform uh which i've joined now locals is a subscription platform so and it's growing so it's becoming a larger percentage of my overall income at the moment it's still the minority part of my overall income but it's growing pretty quickly when it reaches a point where it's competitive with my income in general meaning that even if i lost everything else i would still have a real job it would just be limited to locals which would be fine if that was a big enough community and i'm becoming increasingly uncancelable and i don't know what that does because i haven't been there before i've never been in a place where i not only have fu money but i have an fu job i've never had that before i've only had

[23:53]

i've never had that before i've only had the money not a job that was invulnerable and i'm getting close to that i'm getting closer and closer to being actually invulnerable and i'm wondering if at some point i would have freedom of speech i'm getting close and it's kind of exciting because i would like to be able to have freedom of speech the way black americans do the way women do women less than black americans but but um someday god willing i will have freedom of speech i don't know if that will make me speak any differently i actually don't but it's kind of exciting i got real excited the other day when i thought hey are you kidding me i could actually i could actually tweet some data that was actually just useful and true i could i could just tweet true data and i don't have to lose my my career could be good could be good anyway in

[24:53]

could be good could be good anyway in response to leonidas um tweet there was of course lots of interaction on it and he went into some detail in the thread which i would recommend to you and so look for it in my twitter thread i just tweeted it this morning so all right so starting with the claim that for every 10 000 black people arrested for violent crimes now this is the key phrase here violent crimes three are killed for every ten thousand white people arrested for again violent crimes four are killed now of course the big question mark is well what about non-violent crimes what about what about all the people getting hassled and you know i don't know abused beat up humiliated uh all those other bad things for non-violent crimes what about all that i mean that's got to be part of the equation doesn't it and so i don't know the answer that but i tweeted back that um that which group gets stopped and hassled the most by police because let's say these statistics are

[25:54]

because let's say these statistics are true and let's take out the violent crime let's say that it was true that uh statistically slightly more white people are killed not even slightly but more white people are killed by police than black people but what if black people encounter the police ten times more what if there's just more police presence in black communities because they tend at least in the urban areas they're going to be lower income more crime comes with lower income so there's going to be more police so how do you factor that in so is it the whole story that it's the percentage of people arrested for violent crimes it's not really the whole story because you have to look at you know who's getting stopped and why is there a racial component to that and most americans apparently think there is a racial component to that and it would be hard to debate i mean it's hard to argue that there's who could really argue that

[26:55]

who could really argue that i i would think that race has a big impact on who gets stopped now but which doesn't mean that the people doing the stopping are racist because apparently there's not much difference between how black police officers and white police officers treat anybody if black and white police officers are basically the same in how they treat people it's it's kind of hard to find the racial component when you take that into consideration but um what leonid leonidas argued in response to other people you know questioning the totality of the stuff is that leonidas makes a really good um rational point and it goes like this that people being stopped for violent crimes is not the whole story he'd be in complete agreement that he's taking a slice of the whole story but he says quite reasonably that if this racial if the racial bias

[28:00]

that if this racial if the racial bias was what people say it is this is exactly where it would show up the strongest i don't know that that's true i also don't know that statistics are accurate because where does statistics come from the police right so is it possible that the police aren't good at accurately you know documenting who got killed for what maybe i mean that wouldn't be surprising but
but it's an interesting point leonidas says that it would show up there and it doesn't
is that persuasive to you i wouldn't say it's completely persuasive but i would say it's it's exactly the right question isn't it it's exactly the right question because we should understand that no matter what the answer is even if the answer is the data was bad i'd like to understand that for sure all right um van jones tweeted

[29:03]

um van jones tweeted today that uh women leaders globally kicked hashtag coronavirus in the ass male leaders across the board blew it facts hashtag pandemic etc and then he linked to
to the story on that now was that helpful to say that women leaders did a good job and male leaders did not because i don't feel like what we needed was more sexism because i'm pretty sure that you can't document that their gender is what made them more successful one of the successful female leaders was new zealand i don't want to be unkind to new zealand and i don't want to be unkind to the leader who's a woman who apparently is leading a country that claims to have actually eliminated coronavirus that's pretty good but it needs to be said it's an island it's an island and

[30:05]

it's an island and it could be that once again humans are bad at calculating percentages
and and do you think it's fair or accurate or helpful to say that women beat the coronavirus but male leaders blew it to me that feels like just sexism because i don't think you can make that claim based on the data now here's what's ironic about this literally the day before i was thinking to myself who's the only person who would have enough credibility to fix the you know to do something constructive about the protests and and race relations in this country and maybe come up with something practical that we could work on you know come up with some specific proposals we could toss around and see what we can do and i thought well van jones van jones is probably one of the few

[31:06]

van jones is probably one of the few people in the world who can uh well he's bilingual meaning that he can talk to black people he can talk to white people and he knows what they mean i don't know how many people there are in the whole world who have credibility ability to communicate uh have the interest have the you know have the aptitude the history the the history of success especially with prison reform i mean really come up with come up with one other person on the planet who would be more perfect for being in the middle of this and getting it fixed now in the comments somebody's saying kanye kanye is a force of nature and one of the most productive ones you'll ever see in in lots of ways socially as well as economically productive but i don't know that kanye is the right one to dig in and get into some details about how to fix policing i i see i see kanye as more of a almost as

[32:08]

i see kanye as more of a almost as spiritual kind of a leader not not a you know nuts and bolts here's my policy kind of a leader and if you want to get down into some real practical stuff i'm thinking van jones i'm thinking van jones would be the best choice i can think of can you think of a better one
i'm looking at your comments to see if anybody suggests anybody larry elder would be too associated with the right you really need somebody who's more associated with the left but knows how to work with the right and it really just sort of comes down to van jones so i hope it gets in the game but
but my friendly advice with affection it to van jones because i think he's one of the most productive people um in the country right now um i don't think the sexism helps us we didn't probably didn't need that all right here's my favorite story

[33:10]

all right here's my favorite story that didn't get many retweets now the fact that this didn't get many retweets compared to everything else i tweeted today tells me that the message is not getting through or it's getting through and it's being rejected and now i'm going to tell you something that'll be one of the most important things you'll ever hear indeed it's so important it could end racism i just let that hang in the air for a moment i'm going to give you a suggestion a persuasion suggestion that's so powerful it could completely end racism it's a pretty big claim isn't it
it let me tell you the story buffalo teenager 18 years old who is african-american which is important to the story after buffalo was hit by the looting i guess there was glass all over the streets and this 18 year old gentleman decides to just on his own go out with a

[34:10]

decides to just on his own go out with a broom and start sweeping the streets and he spent 10 hours cleaning the street by himself just one guy by himself and a broom cleaning the street what do you think happened have you ever heard of the power of reciprocity i talk about this right and it's documented right it's in the book um influenced by childini so it's been studied this is not some new agey kind of let's let's all get along kind of thing it's been studied and it's scientifically true that if you just give somebody something and ask nothing in return the odds of them being flexible with you in the future and wanting to work with you and do good things for you that you didn't ask for goes through the roof now i don't know that reciprocity works everywhere all the same there could be a cultural element to it but i can tell you as your representative white person

[35:11]

representative white person that and again i assume it works with everybody but i can only speak to the group that i you know have the most information about among white people reciprocity is like a freaking nuclear weapon we can't ignore it we can't if you do something good for me i just gotta return the favor i got to and i'll be and if i can't find a way to do it right away it'll it will bother me for years years literally will bother me for years if i can't pay back a kindness
so what happened to the 18 year old african-american guy who just saw a glass in the streets and said you know it'd be a better world if i just swept up this glass spent 10 hours doing if you've ever swept for 10 hours because i have not 10 hours but i've swept for hours and it's hard after the first few hours

[36:13]

and it's hard after the first few hours here's what happened um one gentleman gave him a car i think a mustang it was a classic one it was a few years old because uh because he checked his social media the person who gave him the car and found that he said he was saving up to get a car so somebody just gave him a mustang now here's the fun part of the story his late mother had that same car and so it wasn't just a car it was like really a meaningful who's programming the simulation kind of a car of all the cars in the world he was given as a gift the car that had the most meaning to it that was a coincidence he gets a car and then somebody hears that story and they say what good's a car without car insurance so somebody bought him insurance so he

[37:14]

so somebody bought him insurance so he made a brand new not a brand new was a used but it was a classic mustang you know maybe better than a new car depending on what kind of cars you like and then somebody paid for his college education
they gave him a car car insurance and they paid for college because he spent 10 hours sweeping the streets and asking for nothing my cat is visiting if you see a tale go by
by he asked for nothing and he got a car car insurance and a free education now how often does this work well it doesn't work like that too often like you're not going to get a car in a college education just for helping people out but the concept of reciprocity will work every time what are white people doing to try to

[38:15]

what are white people doing to try to make the world better you're watching the protests the white people are washing the feet of black lives matter people and and the leaders of black churches why are they doing that well who knows you can't really see in their minds but it is a reciprocity play because if you're watching that and you're black let's say you're a black leader and some white people said can we wash your feet on camera and you said yes and it happened how do you feel do you say ah suckers you suckers hahaha that changed nothing you might try to feel that way you might try to feel like these stupid white people they don't know that this doesn't work but sure i'll humiliate them i'll let them wash my feet i don't know

[39:17]

i'll let them wash my feet i don't know what you're thinking intellectually but i gotta tell you it probably worked because reciprocity doesn't ever not work it works every time so should if if the um the black lives matter people wanted equality there is a four-lane highway with no traffic to get there it's called reciprocity but could you use a reciprocity strategy if you were let's say still suffering in your opinion from the effects of slavery all right it if you still felt oppressed today and you felt it was the legacy of slavery and you know all the all the bad you know jim pro laws and everything in the history if that's what's on your mind and that's

[40:19]

if that's what's on your mind and that's sort of defining your worldview how in the world could you ever use reciprocity as a tool it just doesn't feel like giving something is the right solution when the problem is people took too much right i mean the slavery is somebody taking too much from you your your very liberty your life your you know your safety everything you know slavery is taking everything from you so how do you get from that mindset something that's still rippling through history how do you get from that mindset to the most productive and reliable persuasion technique in the world reciprocity well i would look at an 18 year old buffalo teen who did that he actually did that he was born into the same world you were born into slavery is still a historical fact in his world right he this 18 year old was not born

[41:21]

right he this 18 year old was not born into a world where slavery never happened nope he was not born into a world where black people are treated exactly the same as white people nope he wasn't born into that world wasn't born into a world where everything is fair nope nope wasn't born into a world where racism doesn't exist nope nope he had every obstacle in the world against him every obstacle in the world against him and he fixed it with a broom a broom he changed his life with a broom in 10 hours and if you had asked me ahead of time scott do you think this is a good idea will this work i would have said not only will it work could change your life might even change the world i doubt it

[42:22]

change the world i doubt it because i you know i don't just don't think it's realistic to find too many people that have um as much on the ball as this 18 year old has this 18 year old is just operating at a different level if if this guy doesn't run for office someday it would be a crime because this is this is the guy you need to be in charge i i would vote for this guy he's 18 years old he already has my vote for president frankly all right so let's see what else is coming down the road let's talk about biden and his uh vice presidential pick um some smart people are saying it's narrowed down to elizabeth warren or kamala harris so i did a little twitter poll to find out how you thought about it and um kamal harris was a winner of the unscientific twitter poll with almost 70 percent of the vote

[43:25]

with almost 70 percent of the vote it's sort of a two to one let's say so two to one of probably mostly pro-trump people who voted in my unscientific twitter poll two to one thought kamal harris was the stronger candidate stronger meaning the one that would help biden the most and i agree with that completely some people complained and said no no way because kamala harris was a prosecutor and she is more associated with putting black people in jail then she is associated with defunding the police which is the popular thing for democrats but i would argue this that if you're democrats and you're worried about scaring republicans with too much of the defund the police stuff and i think biden's not going to go fully he might flirt with defunding the police but he's not going to be and eliminate the police guy
guy i don't think i think harris is actually perfect for that because she straddles she straddles both worlds like nobody

[44:25]

she straddles both worlds like nobody else you can think of you want somebody who's got one foot in the world of the police let's say law enforcement world and she does but you also want the other foot to be with the protesters with black lives matter clearly progressive somebody who can see both sides how many people have that she actually is exactly the right person she's not even approximately the right person she's exactly the right person because you want somebody who can see both sides you're not going to get to the end without a few leaders who can do that now i don't i don't think she is necessarily the unifying leader that we need but she has what you need for vice president i think it's a slam dunk all right so uh we could be surprised by some candidate we didn't know of who just was even more perfect but at this point i'd say at least a fifty percent chance

[45:26]

percent chance it's kamal harris but i would say there's a hundred percent chance it's not elizabeth warren so there could be some still surprises i checked my predicted um my predicted bets so where i go to the the betting market and actually bet on stuff now all of my bets are are many months old
old so there's nothing that i bet recently everything is 2019 maybe early 2020 i don't remember some of them so there's nothing new and i've got six bets all six of them are right except that only four of them i think will pay here's why i say they're all correct bets but only three or four of them are going to pay one of my bets was that kamala harris would get the top ticket nomination that will not happen because biden already got it but we also agree that if she's the vice

[46:26]

but we also agree that if she's the vice presidential pick it will be like she is the presidential candidate so i'm going to lose my bet and predict it because they're going to be technical about that you know they they tell you in advance what the standard is and it wouldn't meet that standard so i'm going to lose the bet at the same time that i won the bet um so i think it was either 6 out of 6 might have been 5 and a 6. so one of the bets i won is that the nominee would be over 70. so that's biden um one of the ones i won is that oh i lost the bet that the democrats would nominate a woman but again if camalleris is vice president and people see her as the top of the ticket i kind of won the bet even though i'll have to pay on the bet and lose it um so anyway i think i think harris is

[47:27]

so anyway i think i think harris is gonna get it uh that's about uh
that's about all i got for now just checking to make sure oh so here's something i tweeted yesterday i had this pin for a while and even ann coulter liked it um so i got over 11 000 retweets now in given the size of my twitter following a really good viral tweet from me would be about 1500 retweets all right so this is approximately it's approaching 10 times it probably will get to 10 times more than my a good normal viral tweet so that means that this is hitting a chord with people way way beyond normal tweets and here's what it is most of you saw i said i can't respect the protest i do i always respect the people of course but
but you know you can disrespect activities

[48:29]

you know you can disrespect activities i can't respect a protest that has these qualities number one no specific suggestions on what to change you know defunding the police isn't too specific data is not allowed into the debate because it's not you're not really allowed to look at the data right uh dissenting opinions no matter how respectful and well-meaning are not allowed that's true you could not have a dissenting opinion even if you're respectful and even if your data was on your side and even if you're well-meaning not allowed and number four the protest has a low regard for public safety and i think that's true so
um i don't know i don't know how to participate in a debate in which you can't talk about the data you can't have a different opinion there's no real suggestions and they're not even concerned with public well-being like

[49:31]

concerned with public well-being like i don't know what's that part of the reason that i think the protests are so big
big and that again nobody seems to want to say this out loud but i will it's because the weather is good and there are no alternatives for something to do imagine if this was just a regular summer and people had their summer vacations planned and kids were going to camps and you know you're just busy busy running around and you could go to clubs and bars you could go out to restaurants you're at the beach and you've got all these other things you can do how big would the protest be now you'd like to believe they'd be the same size right because what's more important going to the beach or protesting to try to improve life and reduce racism so your your lost your logical mind says well they'd be the same size because it's so important compared to going to the beach have you met people

[50:35]

if you've got that many human beings there are a lot of those people who would have gone to the beach they would have gone to the beach it doesn't mean that the that the issue is any less certainly not saying that i'm just saying if you're looking at the size of the crowd it's completely misleading because they just didn't have anything else to do it was outdoors that you could leave the house so i think we're being fooled not only by selective images on our tv we're being fooled because we're we ignore the alternatives you know the alternative was to do something else and it didn't exist
all right um it's the perfect time for a protest weather's good and there's nothing else to do
i don't even think the protest would be this big if they were in august because it'd be too hot i mean that alone would be a factor you just described florida

[51:37]

do you think it'll matter that people are saying that uh democratic mayors all failed do you do you think that that's going to matter to anything i have a feeling it won't i really do i'd love to see some kind of a city let's say uh consultants like bain consultants or people like that i'd love to see them put together a city rescue service so it would be a contracted service and you would say to some big consulting company mackenzie just you know somebody who's got a lot of smart people and you'd say we're gonna have an election in our city and if we if we choose this by referendum then you're going to come in for two years and at two years you're out of here but two years will bring in professional consultants who have a package of you know they figured out how to do things what works and what doesn't and they'll come in and they'll just implement these changes

[52:37]

changes we'll run it for two years and then the consultants will have to leave no matter how well they do they don't live here they're not elected they've got to leave after two years and then we'll try to fill positions with regular elected people to keep the momentum going do you think anybody would use that would anybody use a city rescue service like it would be like a government in a box
box you know a canned government that just comes in for two years and then they have to leave you know what no two ways about it now i wouldn't worry about you know consultants taking over a city and staying i don't feel like that's a big risk i feel like they'd want to make their money and move to another city
yeah and you know maybe you appoint a city manager to implement things but that manager would be more of an implementer
anyway pork is a problem that is correct ben i think that the professional

[53:37]

ben i think that the professional consultants would be less susceptible to the pork because they would be highly paid on day one they wouldn't have to take bribes because they have good jobs all right uh that's all for now and i will talk to you later have a great day