Episode 970 Scott Adams: ObamaGate, COVID19 Fake News, Fake Polls and Fun

Date: 2020-05-12 | Duration: 1:03:54

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: Double-Fake News on testing, both sides lying by omission CNN wins CNN poll…WOW! Did Governor Cuomo follow the advice of experts? #ObamaGate - Evidence of Obama crimes? Hey Carl Bernstein…is Watergate worse than ObamaGate? General Flynn’s concern about China

If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.

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## Transcript

[0:14]

hey everybody well what a great day no really this is gonna be one of the best days of the whole week and what better way to kick it off than the simultaneous SEP that's right that's right you said it at the same time and all you need to enjoy the simultaneous up to its maximum potential I'm talking maximum potential here we're talking about the kind of simultaneous if that will boost your immune response I'm talking about the kind of thing that will move mountains change civilizations yeah that kind of simultaneous SEP and it's coming at you but all you need all you need is a cup of Marburg Lassa thank or jealous or sign the canteen director flask oh that's a live any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything better including the damn pandemic it's called the simultaneous sip and it happens now

[1:15]

the simultaneous sip and it happens now go I feel like I could eat raw Pangolin right now wouldn't bother me nope easy
weird comments today let's talk about my notes instead of your weird comments about hot dogs and I don't even want to read the rest of that stuff it's a weird day today alright I noticed this morning that I've got a hundred and fifty thousand views for my video that's pinned on my Twitter feed teaching you the user interface for reality and a hundred and fifty thousand views there's a lot for what I do and I actually went back and watched it again like a viewer there's a strange phenomenon that happens when I make these videos and I

[2:17]

happens when I make these videos and I first noticed this what I used to give speeches and a lot of interviews live interviews I would do I could do an hour-long interview and when I walked away I would have no memory of it I mean I would have a general memory of it but I wouldn't really remember what I answered or what I talked about because I do so many of these and so I did the the the user interface to reality video and I kind of forgot about it instantly the way I always do not in any special way but the way I always do when I walk away it's like okay I know we talked about that general topic but I don't have a I don't hold it in my memory as a whole so when I when I watch myself on playback I have this weird experience of watching it like like I'm watching it for the first time like it wasn't me who just said it 24 hours ago it's the strangest thing it's like it's like a third party experience where you're just watching somebody else because I don't know what I'm gonna say just like you

[3:19]

know what I'm gonna say just like you don't when you're watching it because I don't remember what I said in one order and as I'm saying it I'm watching it and I had the weirdest experience watching myself talk and saying things I didn't quite know what I was going to say as I said them but here's the the thing that I got out of it I did not know how much persuasion technique I build into just my regular communication until I watched it as you know just an observer which I typically I'm not in that had and I thought to myself my god so he says were you high yeah I was of course but it wasn't the evening you should you should know the answer to that question but that's not why I don't remember them the reason I don't remember them is common over my entire career no matter what my mental state but you should watch if you watched it once for the content you

[4:20]

watched it once for the content you might if you're just interested in technique especially if you've read wind Bigley if your friend wouldn't Begley look at the persuasion technique that I used throughout and especially look at the this one variable which I actually talked about in the video which is curiosity watch from the very beginning how I how I tweaked your curiosity to keep you for what is a pretty long video and then ask yourself if you can feel it as it's happening so that that's the fun part so see if you could feel yourself getting curious and actually feel the persuasion trapping you to watch the rest of it just interesting to see if you if you felt it alright the biggest fake news of the day is about testing this is I will call this a double fake news so basically it's fake news on Fox News it's fake news on CNN it's just all fake news here's what I think is happening so this is my best interpretation of what's

[5:22]

is my best interpretation of what's happening I won't give this a hundred percent but it feels like this is what's happening when the administration says that and president says specifically anyone who wants a test can get one is that true because he says that multiple times so yesterday anyone who wants a test for the corona virus can get one or is it true as CNN is reporting consistently it's not just not true Bill Gates would say it's not true then we don't have as much you can't get a test just because you want one and we don't have enough so they can't both be true right can it be true that everyone who wants one can go on at the same time that we don't have enough can they both be true so one of them is true and one of them is a lie right which one is it both lies both lives here's the answer I think I'll give him my theory I think

[6:24]

think I'll give him my theory I think that when the president says anyone who wants a test can get one he's talking mafia talk here's what I mean hey doctor can I can I get a test why do you want to test I just want to test I mean I think I might have it you know it'd be nice no if I had if I had it maybe I want to be around old people or something but I want to test and then the doctor who also in my example happens to be a member of the Mafia just to make it interesting the doctor says you don't want that test and then the patient said no I do want the test I'm just curious I'd like to see if I have it could mean couldn't mean a big difference to me and the doctor says these these tests you only want these if you've got symptoms and the patient says no I want it I don't have any symptoms I just I just want it and the doctor says you don't want that you don't want that you only want that if you have symptoms or if you're being contact traced

[7:26]

or if you're being contact traced because you had contact with somebody else or you're part of our random selection for testing the antibodies those are the three times you want it the other times you don't want it oh so I can get a test if I want it but you're telling me that I don't want it now you got it you got it you can get it if you want it but you don't want it in those other reasons right oh yeah I guess that was my doctor couching impression it wasn't supposed to be dr. Falchi let's not make this ethnic that's my generic mafia impression from the Godfather could you recognize it I thought it was spot-on so I would say that both sides are lying by omission the Trump administration is lying that anybody can get one and you know of course if you're talking about 50 states there's some little anecdote about Ohio doesn't have enough of whatever I'm sure

[8:28]

doesn't have enough of whatever I'm sure it's true that in some places they're struggling to get enough because that would just be normal right 50 states they're not all going to be equally ready that wouldn't even make sense but it can't be true that anybody can get a test just because there won't one all right the president is sort of talking mafia talk because remember the suit and I'm not guessing on this because his his expert the what is that the second-in-command at the Health and Human Services says it directly and by the way he's really good I forget his name who soon as the guy is number two at the Health and Human Services sure hour or something but I thought he was excellent when he broke down that the tests are for if you have symptoms if you're part of contact tracing or you've been selected by whoever for you asymptomatic testing just to see what's in the atmosphere and I thought that's actually a really good answer and that would be a way better answer than the way the president is doing it because

[9:28]

way the president is doing it because he's too easily taken taken was saying literally I guess and I don't think that the president is speaking literally but when you're talking about health related objects or situations you really need to talk literally you know that's where he gets in trouble you are so I thought Gerard did a really good job of just setting it up three reasons that you need testing we do have enough testing for those three reasons our focus on opening the economy is that testing we have enough for that I think that's fair but they don't say that they say everybody can get a test that's just technically not true here's what enough tests look like so over in China they've decided that they're going to do some more testing in the Wuhan because I guess they got six new cases recently so that was a little uptick they're concerned about that so China is planning to do 1.1 million tests per day

[10:29]

planning to do 1.1 million tests per day just in Wuhan for ten days in a row 1.1 million per day in one city ten days in a row so it's not spread over ten days they're doing 1.1 million a day for ten days one city how close are we to being able to do that not even close right no maybe we can get there by say end of the year or something but we're not there so when somebody like Bill Gates or a apparently China says enough tests is what it looks like for Luhan that's what it means to have enough tests alright you know if you want to do enough testing to actually stamp it down and eradicate it you're looking at that level of testing and we're not close to that we're at the yeah you could have a test if you want it you don't want it you don't want that that's what we have I do think it is true however that

[11:31]

I do think it is true however that probably amazing and heroic things are happening in terms of ramping up so I think when Jarrod talks about you know how amazing our our testing is increasing you know it's like a hundredfold since thirty days ago or something and some number like that I think that's real and that should be loud and we should be pretty darn happy about that but I think that we all have to be a little bit grown-up about what is possible to to scale up to that level of testing that we would need and to do that in two months is really sort of unprecedented I mean to expect that it would have gone smoothly is asking a lot of a country and that doesn't do anything smoothly so anyway I think it is entirely possible that you could do a great job of getting testing together from wherever it was to wherever it needs to be you can do the greatest job in the world and still not get close to

[12:33]

in the world and still not get close to where you need it to be and I think that describes our situation I do think the government probably did a great job of increasing testing it's just hard and it takes a long time so what would be the standard to say that they had done it well or not done it well it's purely subjective should it have been done in one week well it wasn't so they failed should it take six months well they'll probably beat that they'll probably have all the testing they need in less than six months is that a big success depends what you're measuring it against and we don't know what what was what was par what would be a good job what would that look like we don't know there's no reporting on that so you can't even tell if we did a good job or a bad job it is there's no I would say there's not sufficient evidence that you can even have an informed opinion about whether the government is doing a good or bad job you can tell if there's enough but you don't know if they got there the right way is the best way one

[13:36]

there the right way is the best way one of the funniest things that you will ever see and it's funny because it works you know when when somebody does a really dumb trick and it works and you think I shouldn't have worked that is the dumbest trick in the world it's so obvious what you did how does that work and CNN - this was they ran a poll in which they were asking people in the CNN poll who they trusted the most to give them accurate information about the coronavirus situation and on CNN's poll interestingly enough they found that people trusted CNN more than they trusted Trump to tell them about the coronavirus now here's the funny part why in the world would people not trust Trump what would cause that to happen could it be non-stop reporting buy fake fake news CNN that he

[14:37]

reporting buy fake fake news CNN that he had wondered aloud about drinking household disinfectants which of course never happened could it be that they're reporting on his hydroxychloroquine which was smart risk management conversation by adults which they turned into he wants to kill people for no reason could it be that the reason that CNN viewers or at least anybody who saw CNN poll I don't know if they were just viewers I hope not if it was a decent poll why why is it that people might not trust jump well well maybe because all the reporting is fake and people believed it when Keeley mcaveeney the new press secretary was asked why she used to think something about Trump and she changed her mind and she said well I used to read I used to listen to CNN and naively believe it which was a hilarious answer it doesn't CNN's poll kind of

[15:41]

answer it doesn't CNN's poll kind of answer itself like they actually have the guts to deliver fake news about what Trump was saying for months and then do a poll of whether you trusted Trump's Trump's opinions and then they weren't even real ones that takes guts okay you have to admit that's funny right I mean isn't it kind of funny that they could get away with this they can make up the news and then blame it on Trump here's a little thing that I just thought was funny so I watched the press conference I think many of you saw yesterday in which the reporters were wearing masks and the president wasn't now we've all talked about the president now wearing a mask he I think he just doesn't think it looks presidential and I'm not so sure he's wrong about that I'm a little bit on the fence on this one because Trump's instincts on this stuff the the visual persuasion are really strong so I would say that he

[16:44]

are really strong so I would say that he is probably taking a chance not probably I mean if he's not wearing a mask it's riskier than a few words so let's agree that that's just statistically a truth but how much of it is how much of a risk is it for any one person who is otherwise healthy it's not the biggest risk in the world you don't want your president to take risks but that's not the biggest risk in the world if everybody else is being tested and he's not shaking hands anymore that sort of stuff so you can see why Trump would take the chance but you can also see why a reasonable person would say maybe you shouldn't or be a better role model or whatever anyway you can see the argument the part I loved is that the reporters didn't have an option the reporters there is so so here's the visual for me that the Trump wants the press to shut up and they get up and they've got masks literally covering their mouths and their mumble remember refer for over I have a question I have a question that you have

[17:44]

question I have a question that you have barely here's what my mask but the president doesn't have a mask so the fact that the press was literally muzzled and and we watched it they stood up and they were muzzle proficient and then the president wasn't muzzled I just loved the visual it was just this this wonderful moment of where the president was giving a perfect visual persuasion now you know you could argue that he ruined it by getting snippy at the end and walking off but even at the end by my impression during the entire press conferences that he was boring but it's a good way you know every now and then you want you want Trump to be boring right because you don't want to bang news on some topics and every time he talks about the science or anything about coronavirus in my head I'm saying no don't do it don't do it just just talk about the political stuff no talk

[18:45]

talk about the political stuff no talk about the science no no don't go there then he goes there but the thing the thing I always say about Trump is that he doesn't know how to be uninteresting I do it's it's the most consistent thing you've ever seen he can't be uninteresting so he gives the press conference totally totally straightforward didn't get too political stuck to the facts seemed just professional and competent and I thought to myself yeah that's good it's professional competent looks like he's on the ball I'm a little bit bored I think I'm watching an Obama press conference and then at the end he gets all snippy with the press you don't need to know the details but he you know you made the the end of it memorable not in a good way because he just walked away after a while thank you very much he was out of there and I thought to myself oh there it is he cannot make an appearance boring he

[19:47]

he cannot make an appearance boring he doesn't know how to be boring so at the end he had been boring the entire time he's like well put a little dessert on there and and now it's national news let's see let's see let's say we got other stuff here one of the most interesting elements of the fake news and let's call this a battle between the left and the right news is this frame was Trump a big success or a big failure and was Andrew Cuomo a big success for a big failure well it seems to me that both Cuomo and Trump largely followed the advice of experts for pretty much everything wouldn't you say as far as we know right I don't think either Trump or Cuomo departed from experts but there might be one exception for both so one exception I believe at least the way it's being reported is that Trump departed from experts when he decided to close travel

[20:49]

experts when he decided to close travel from China except for u.s. citizens and and that was right so now we we agree that Trump defiant he D what he called he did what the experts were not telling him to do and now we all agree that that was the right decision but otherwise I think he just did what the experts told him to do now the states are not doing what the experts told the states to do but that's sort of on the states so Trump was compatible with the experts except for one big big call a very big call which he got right was that affair defied thank you I couldn't come up with the word defied the experts is that a fair summary could you do you think that even the other side would say yes right or wrong Trump followed the recommendation of the experts with just that one exception closing the travel and he got it right

[21:50]

closing the travel and he got it right Cuomo as far as I know I can use a fact check on this but I think Cuomo probably followed the experts to the one question I have is returning people to the nursing homes which turned out to maybe kill 5,000 people now do we know here's here's the there's a hole in the reporting I don't know if you've noticed this but this is very missing why did Cuomo or did he even know about it you know did the governor himself know that patients were being returned to nursing homes I mean did he sign an order like that did did he talk to somebody did an expert say it would be okay so when you're evaluating Cuomo the part of the news that we don't have because we don't have good reporting or I haven't seen it maybe maybe somebody has reported it is was Cuomo simply following the best expert advice what he said what do we do with these people if that conversation even happened or was that a case where he violated or defied

[22:51]

that a case where he violated or defied defined did he defy their advice somebody's saying yes he did but also he signed the order to do it people are saying in the comments so let's say let's say that that's true there's enough of you saying he signed the order did he know did he know that that was what the experts were advising or did he know that the experts did not invited advise it because I don't know if they did or did not were there any experts involved so I would like to know more about that reporting it sounds like all of you are fact-checking me and saying he did sign the order so he was aware of it but being aware of it doesn't mean it was necessarily a mistake unless we also know that the experts told him not to do it soon a has the order from Cuomo on his Twitter but that wouldn't tell us if the experts had recommended it right okay so forget about the question of whether he signed it let's say he did

[23:52]

whether he signed it let's say he did let's only focus on was he advised because it is looking like Trump got everything right the least in terms being compatible with the experts whether it turns out right or not and the one thing he wasn't he got right closing travel so is Cuomo the same I don't know I will say this again and again and again when we're blade we're looking back in the past in this fog of war once we have our perfect vision of the future you know we'll be so smart in the future and we'll look back and say well we should have done this we should have done that and I'm not going to stand for any of it whether it's Trump of mistakes or Cuomo mistakes alleged mistakes real mistakes and the other governor's mistakes and the experts mistakes any of it because we were asking people to make decisions without without the benefit of all the information that was the task our leaders were given you know our experts

[24:54]

leaders were given you know our experts and our leaders please make our decisions we all understand we don't know what is the right answer and we're gonna have to guess and we're gonna have to adjust guess adjust guess adjust so when you ask your leaders to guess what's right try it and then adjust because that's the only thing we had we didn't have good information you know wouldn't it be great use all our great drugs on our great information we'd have any of that we were totally in the dark and so if you're totally in the dark and the only thing you can do is try stuff and then adjust and then we note that our leaders we're doing exactly that trying stuff and adjusting I'm not going to I'm not going to tolerate for this governor got it right and this one didn't because if you got 50 governors somebody's gonna get it right does that mean they're the smart ones does it because you can't demonstrate that you can only demonstrate that there was done 50 different ways and they got 50 different

[25:54]

different ways and they got 50 different results you're not gonna really know who was the smart one you really not so we should be easy on ourselves meaning our leaders who had to make those decisions be they Democrats or be they're Republicans I know it doesn't work that way but we should alright here's the here's the weirdest thing oh I love the fact that I think Tucker Carlson is the only one who talks about this that there actually is no evidence of Russia and hacking on the Podesta's email did you know that that because it's been reported as just a fact that we know the Russians act us but if you actually dig down now we know with the Obama Cade stuff coming out that we actually don't know that and I think you remember very early on when I was talking about it the way I was talking about it was this how is it we know that Russia was hacking

[26:56]

is it we know that Russia was hacking because if we know that Russia was hacking I don't know what hacking is that's the part I was lost I was like are you telling me that that our highest level government spy hackers leave a trail but that tracks right back to them the the those are like the best hackers in the world working for top secret intelligence agencies they don't know how to hack something without leaving a trail so that part was just mind-boggling to me that anybody believed that we could actually no certainly you could leave a trail that it was someone else couldn't you isn't that common so I always took that as I hear what you're saying that you know Russia did it I hear you're saying that you got your secret sources well I'm not gonna buy the the Seth rich part of that story you know I don't rule anything out if I don't have a reason to rule it out but I don't have a reason to rule that one in

[27:58]

don't have a reason to rule that one in all right so here is this to world thing happening with Obama gate first of all I very much love the fact that President Trump has embraced the Obama gate hashtag and label because Russia collusion has now been rebranded it was the final step because it was one thing to say Russia collusion Russia clusion but that brand of the topic made Trump look guilty just just when you talked about it because they had Russia collusion right in the name of the topic well now that we know that that didn't happen at least in terms of the president's involvement or the administration in deded a new name and Obama Gates is sort of perfect political branding now I'm not saying you know I'm not giving you a moral opinion I'm just saying that it's effective from the Republican perspective to call it Obamacare you saw

[28:59]

perspective to call it Obamacare you saw how sticky that was it was like the major trending thing and it also it just just the name of it now puts it on Obama but here's the question what do we know that Obama did here's what we know here's what we know and then I'll tell you what the two worlds have divided into okay here's what we know that Obama reportedly voiced concern voiced concern so this is not gave an order he simply was voicing concern about potential Russian influence with the Trump administration now that's that's what the the reporting is so the only thing we know is that Obama asks the question I think of Comey and Yates should we do anything differently because there's some concern about Flynn and Russia now

[30:00]

some concern about Flynn and Russia now is that illegal is it illegal or even unethical to wonder aloud whether there's any kind of Russia connection that's important to know with Flynn now you say to yourself but Scott there's no evidence that there's a problem but you know everything everything that matters with whether this is an Obama gate or just a series of bad decisions by individuals the difference is what Obama's internal mental state was and and what the internal mental state of Comey and Yates were when they had the conversation that's not in evidence the thing we don't have an evidence is what anybody was thinking we only have an evidence what people were saying and what Obama was saying was a question it wasn't that order it wasn't an order I did think he said get me the answer to

[31:04]

I did think he said get me the answer to the question which is should we treat Flynn differently now was this simple question from Obama should we treat them differently you know in other words briefed them fully and all that stuff was that question really an order and was that question an order with details like you know wiretap own spy in the administration could you say if the only thing you knew and you could never approve more than that is that Obama simply asked the question would that be enough to say that he ordered the takedown and the coup of the United States okay can you connect those doubts because I can somebody says it's unethical to wonder aloud why would it ever be unethical to wonder aloud if somebody was compromised by Russia I don't get that point now Trent Gowdy was

[32:05]

don't get that point now Trent Gowdy was on was it a a Hannity show or Tucker show I guess at a Tucker show and Trent Gowdy said that there's a as yet still redacted memo so there's part of some memo might have been Susan Rice's but Trent Gowdy says with a big smile cuz he's seen it you haven't then when that gets unredacted that we're gonna know a lot more so here's what I suspect if I'm just looking at what's been reported and you know the the new stuff that's been unredacted I don't see evidence that Obama ordered ordered a takedown of the government you know the incoming government so it's just not there what is there is a lot of there circumstantial evidence what is there is a lot of stuff to speculate about what is there is that reasonable people could

[33:05]

is there is that reasonable people could look at this and say you know Scott I get that you're not like looking at the smoke gun but there's a lot of smoke and guns and there's way too many of them for list I need to be coincidence so let me say as clearly as I can I'm not telling you that Obama didn't order it I'm not telling you that trey Gowdy I'm sorry not Trenton County you people are correcting me in the comments trey Gowdy not to Trent so yeah so I'm not telling you Obama is innocent I'm saying I haven't seen the I haven't seen the evidence have you but it's being reported by you know Fox News mostly types it's being reported that the smoking gun has been found and and now we have the evidence that Obama ordered basically a coup but I would say it I don't say it at all I the only thing in evidence is he asked

[34:05]

I the only thing in evidence is he asked a question which wasn't the worst question in the world to ask because you know I've defended Trump for asking in private meetings you know crazy questions that just really are you know you throw out there you see what happens and you move to the next crazy question so asking questions are a little out there it's not that unusual I don't think so if I had to guess where this is going I would guess that the further under read actions will lay clear that there was more of a plot here than we know so if I had to guess some somebody says if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck well that's where you're wrong if it walks like a duck and talks like a duck gets usually confirmation bias if you don't get that you're not operating at the highest level of understanding of your reality let me say that again you've heard the old saying you know if it walks like a duck it talks like a duck it's probably a duck completely

[35:07]

duck it's probably a duck completely false and if you ever believe that you're wandering around in a dream world if it looks like a duck and walks like a duck and quacks like a duck it only might be a duck it only might be did you happen to see the bill bar edited the video the MBC showed according to the NBC video that you saw with your own eyes you saw you saw them laughing and saying well the winners get to write history ha ha ha you saw it with your own eyes you saw a bill barr walking like a duck talking like a duck quacking like a duck how could how could you be wrong he was just laughing at winning and ignoring the rule of law you saw with your own eyes how could he be how can you be wrong it's right there well except we soon found out that it was an edited video and you didn't see it with your own eyes you saw the edited clip which one you see it in its entirety it literally reverses the meaning

[36:08]

it literally reverses the meaning because he says you know winners write the history but you know we hope it'll be written compatible with the rule of law because it needs to be basically paraphrasing so if you're still stuck in walks like a duck quacks like a duck it's a duck you've missed the last three years because it's all walks like a duck quacks like a duck but isn't a duck president trumpet did not suggest drinking bleach he did not call neo-nazis fine people a lot of people saw it except they didn't they think they did they thought they saw the duck quacking and walking how could it not be a duck I saw it duck duck duck it's a duck all the way except it wasn't in any of those cases it's never a duck so you need to lose that mindset however I would predict the things are seem to be heading in a direction where we will know it's a duck so don't worry I feel like I'm going to end up where you are

[37:10]

like I'm going to end up where you are because some of you I know that those who watch me regularly can get uncomfortable if my opinion differs too much from yours because I hear that all the time but I expect that our opinions will converge it's just that you're there you're there based on circumstantial evidence I need a little bit more I don't think you're wrong necessarily I just think that maybe you're a little head the evidence has been presented that's all but we'll probably end up in the same place the other thing that I thought was interesting and again I found this out on Tucker's show I got to tell you Tucker Carlson's show is just one of the best things ever I mean you know I I have my quibbles about some of the stuff that's on there but that would be every show I mean any show I would have some quibble about that but the the quality in which he lays out I guess the view of the world that you weren't seeing

[38:11]

the world that you weren't seeing anywhere else it's just really well done I gotta say it's really well done this whole Obama gave stuff he laid out really cleanly I thought here's my question where's the worse than Watergate guy where's Carl Bernstein because I'm not going to be happy until I see Carl freaking worse than Watergate Bernstein go on CNN ideally CNN and say you know if I'm being honest I'm being honest Obama gate is a way worse than the Watergate now I don't think he can say that yet because for the same reason that I'm not saying it because I think you need that that gun isn't quite smoking in my world yet I think it will I think we'll really unreal we know what's going on but I just need to see Carl Bernstein say I gotta admit Obama

[39:13]

Carl Bernstein say I gotta admit Obama gates worse than the Watergate because if the allegations are true is far worse it's not even close when you say not even close somebody said what is the threshold for evidence the threshold for evidence would be something that is reported reliably that Obama said that's it so if all he did was ask a question that's all we know but if he said go take these guys out investigate them anything like that any direct order or it could be even a note by an assistant so it could be an assistance note this you know the boss wants us to do this or that I would take that as you know if those notes were taken at the time I would take that as evidence all right and some part of the story I don't quite think we understand all of and that is that this some part of the story is that

[40:14]

that this some part of the story is that the there's some underlying desire by the Obama administration to keep the pressure on Russia and now so much on China so Obama wanted to be a little bit more anti Russia friendlier with China and knew that the Flyn and the incoming administration were the opposite that they would leave a little friendlier toward Russia a little less friendlier toward China and I asked myself what's behind all of that don't you feel like there's some kind of money thing behind that because if you were to look at it on the surface and doctor said this last night Flint apparently was was writing off Russia as a declining power one that's not actually a risk to the existence of the United States isn't that just true wouldn't you agree that we don't have any reason to be in a war with Russia and in the long run it doesn't look like they're gonna dominate

[41:15]

doesn't look like they're gonna dominate us economically so if you were to compare the you know rising China just because of population alone and that will give them more money collectively just because of the number of people if China just goes the way it's going how could you even compare the risk of China with the risk of Russia that it looks like a hundred to one I don't even know how you'd put them in the same conversation and that's what Flynn said Flynn said declining power no economic risk it's a regional power but China China's looking to dominate the world and that could really you know have a big impact so what was it that made the Obama administration see the world opposite of that what was that and the only thing I can imagine is lots of economic interests in China so the only thing I can imagine is that you know billionaires and politicians etc had so much business with China but relatively little with

[42:17]

with China but relatively little with Russia right how many billionaire Democrats are doing big deals in Russia besides besides maybe Trump tried to and didn't so if I had if I had to guess I would say that rich Democrats wanted to keep their business in China thought that Trump was a risk to that and wanted to put the pressure on Russia instead he always needed an enemy so I guess they wanted Russia instead alright now there's one tantalizing bit that we're finding out that Molly Hemingway reports that when Obama was having this meeting that we've just learned about early on in which he was talking about the transition that according to Molly Hammond way Obama asked the people who would be leaving at the end of his administration I think that was guys like Brendan and clapper to leave the meeting and he kept only those two people who would be continuing on and

[43:17]

people who would be continuing on and the Trump administration James Comey and then Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates and then Molly says that's where they started hatching their plan to make sure that the incoming administration would not find out what they had been doing is that in evidence is it in evidence that that's where they started hatching their
administration would not find out what they had been doing or what they had planned to continue doing in terms of spying on the Trump administration is that in evidence I would say I would need I would need to see the documents in support of that all right yeah and I guess that's that's where we're at so we're we're just interpreting that conversation as meaningful or not meaningful depending on who you are here here are some things affecting this coronavirus stuff they're sneaking up on us
us you know I don't think we're gonna have

[44:19]

you know I don't think we're gonna have any kind of a magic bullet for defeating the coronavirus but there's a whole bunch of stuff that in little ways seem like you know they're gonna chip away at it until it's important you hear all the things we're doing that probably will bring down the curve all right so individually they're not very meaningful but if you add them together so we got the masks in the social distancing no doubt that makes a difference we we now know that the nursing homes have to be extra protected and that should cut the deaths at the half wouldn't you think if the only change we made was better protecting nursing homes death rate gets cut in half so we know we'll probably do that right we the hydroxychloroquine seems to have some the fact it's not a magic pill but it does seem to help so you got a little bit of that going on the apparently the ventilator situation we're getting smarter and not killing people with ventilators now so if if you were to simply subtract from our death

[45:19]

were to simply subtract from our death toll all of the nursing home deaths which we now know how to prevent and also all of the ventilator caused deaths which are tragic it happened when they thought ventilators would make things better but probably we're making things worse and actually killing people so if you took away all the ventilator deaths that we now know better how to avoid with the nose cannulas and the you know protein people on their stomach and all that the new techniques that they're using those two changes alone might drop the number of deaths by half when you say and then you add on to that just knowledge that we have with the testing you know we can test better and and even knowing that I think the african-american community and especially men are getting whacked harder and you can't directly turn that into action it's hard to say we know which groups are getting affected and then directly turn that into it something useful but I feel like we might be I mean just the fact that if we

[46:23]

might be I mean just the fact that if we know that the black population twice as much problems in terms of outcomes there might be some way to you know use that information productively to protect a group of people better than we're doing so just the fact that we know more has given us tools to you know attack this thing and I think it has to be said that we probably have a pretty good chance of keeping the curve flat for a good while the projections on death at least one model has 137 thousand by the end of August where is that compared to what you thought it would be of course we don't know if that's real yet but comparing the hundred and thirty seven thousand projected deaths from proto virus of which many of you suspect are being over accounted to the regular flu deaths which we now suspect are close to zero if you've missed that story I talked

[47:24]

if you've missed that story I talked about that the doctor who looked into how we count regular flu it turns out the way we count the number of people who die from the regular annual flu is we don't count them that's it the nobody's ever counted it we don't count how many people died of the regular flu it's determined by an algorithm they they've got some model so basically we have no idea so it's not it's not a coincidence that you don't know anybody who died as a regular flu but you probably do know somebody or you know somebody knows somebody who died of crota virus because you're saved you so well if the numbers are somewhat comparable why do I only hear about people dying for this one thing and my whole life I've never heard of anybody dying from this other thing some of you have heard of people diagnosed Lou but it's rare so the real number of people who die from the regular flu might be a few thousand every year a few thousand that's it so you should be kouf you

[48:25]

that's it so you should be kouf you comparing let's pick a number let's say five thousand so five thousand for regular flu that's probably the real number the reason that it's inflated is so you'll get a shot if so you'll get a vaccine of course they want to scare you with the flu so you'll take it more seriously so that so let's say that the new estimate is over a hundred and thirty thousand more deaths than the regular flu if you were to buy those projections and I don't know that necessarily what would you say oh I changed my mind I thought it was no worse than the flu when the information I was getting which was flawed was that the regular flus you know twenty to sixty thousand this one's gonna be around sixty thousand they looked about the same to me is there anybody yet who is willing to say okay you got me this is not the regular flu have you seen anybody do that yet I don't know if I've seen anybody

[49:26]

don't know if I've seen anybody explicitly say okay I was fooled I thought it was no worse but now I'm seeing these numbers now I know how you counted the regular flu wow these are completely different I don't know if anybody's having that realization the Supreme Court stuff is sneaking up on us because I guess they have some huge things going on deciding whether we can look at Trump's taxes right before election I mean how cool is the movie I mean you might hate it or love it but how cool is it that sometime over this summer you may or may not get a look at Trump's taxes now I don't think we should in my opinion it's just it's unnecessary and it just gives political fuel for for taking things out of context so basically Trump's taxes is a gigantic opportunity for his enemies to take things out of context that's it

[50:28]

take things out of context that's it misinterpreted take it into context so it would be a gigantic story most of it would be fake you as we know but that's not even the only thing happening they're talking about daca LGBT queue rights I don't know exactly what that's about and you know even at redacting unredacted some stuff I mean there's there's some big stuff coming so if you think this summer is going to be boring politically it's not somebody says Muller's saw his taxes that's a good point did Muller see his taxes because one would assume he could right because it's only a question of whether the public sees them so if Muller saw them and he didn't raise any flags then we would only be worried about people taking things out of context and interpreting them wrong all right Grinnell is doing a great job of pushing the D classifications one imagines that's why he was putted in that job because he's going to push over

[51:29]

that job because he's going to push over in T classifications where are we with the Golden Age good question here's what I think I think this coronavirus much as joel osteen said in his own way but you put the religious spin on it but but I don't I think that we the coronavirus situation is making us rethink all of our systems and all of our assumptions and that when you do that it lays bare the flaws so the coronavirus has as surfaced every problem with everything because as soon as you get that that little extra you know catch in the system anything that's not working right brakes immediately so you know you saw breaks in the health care the food supply you saw breaks and all kinds of stuff but even education commuting working at home I mean just everything from shaking hands - what does your social life look like is all going to be rethought and when you rethink things

[52:30]

rethought and when you rethink things that that a fundamental level when you when you shake the box and then you turn your geniuses loose what you've done likely likely what you've done is created an opportunity for one of the biggest entrepreneurial surgeons in the history of humankind because usually your society gets a little ossified you know the regulations build up and it's just hard to get anything done and then suddenly the coronavirus comes what happened to doctors who couldn't practice telehealth across state lines was there ever a reason for that was there ever a good reason doctors couldn't make a phone call across state lines no there was never a reason for that so that rule just one way will it stay away don't know I think there's a good chance of it but if it did it could completely transform you know health care you know why would you go to a doctor if there's one right on your screen and you can just order your meds

[53:32]

screen and you can just order your meds or you could go to Walmart and have the test that your doctor tells you to get yeah just go to Walmart tell them you need a 1-2-3 test you go to Walmart take a little blood give it to your telehealth doctor I mean they're they're gigantic structural changes that are just going to sneak up on us and it's because things changed and it opened up all these paths for entrepreneurs so I think the golden age is guaranteed at this point and that the coronavirus will be like its third act it'll be the thing you had to get past for the good thing to happen now I would argue similarly if you take World War two well nobody would ask for a World War two in the same way nobody would ask for a coronavirus it is true that World War two sort of rebooted civilizations and it did create all these new technologies that we built for mostly for military reasons it gave us you know nuclear energy I think it gave

[54:32]

you know nuclear energy I think it gave us radar space technology your rockets so when you reboot civilization and you'll wipe away all your assumptions and in the case of world war two you destroy half of your buildings you can start over and it almost always turns into an entrepreneurial surge because there's just new opportunities in chaos so the Golden Age is coming for sure 2021 is your start dates for that that [Applause] let me talk about all the bankruptcies so we're seeing lots of airlines and other companies declaring bankruptcy the first thing you need to know is that bankruptcy doesn't mean going out of business it means that they're trying to get some relief for their creditors you know so they can maybe pay less or whatever and stay in business so bankruptcy is a way to stay in business not a way to go in a business that's the first thing secondly there are a number of companies who are saying we're going

[55:33]

of companies who are saying we're going atta business so you'll see you know store owners saying all right we're we're closed for good what are they imagine the coronavirus is over the landlord has an empty shop and the person who's there is closed they just walked away what does the landlord do well if they're smart they say the very best tenant I can have is the person who's already designed the space for exactly their business so I don't have to put in a bunch of improvements and rip this stuff out to make it a different kind of thing so I can rent it for someone else the best bet for the landlord is say okay I know you didn't pay me for three months and I know you can't pay me for another three months and you're still the best bet will you will you start up again so I think you're going to see that a lot of companies that think they were closed forever because there were so many of them end up being reopened here let me say that clear if you are

[56:35]

here let me say that clear if you are the only person who goes out of business and the rest of the economy is fine you got a tree you got a problem is your problem you failed when everybody else was doing fine now you failed in your business what does the landlord want to do get rid of you and get somebody in that business they can succeed so that they can pay the rent that's not this this is this is massive failure that was nobody's fault if you've got a potential tenant who was just part of a massive failure that was nobody's fault that's your very best person to bring back as your next tenant so I think you're gonna see a lot of businesses reinvest
wrong with the business it was just a situation and as the situation normalizes so too you would expect that at least the better better businesses they should have should have stayed business will revive that's what I think
yeah there are a lot of businesses that have never been busier I tried to go to

[57:35]

have never been busier I tried to go to the bike store my local bike store does bicycle repair and sale stores are open because they're they're actually transportation critical infrastructure but you can't even get in a bike store in my town you have to wait on the sidewalk and I waited so long I just gave up so you can't even get in the bike store so they're doing okay well 2121 be the Golden Age if Trump loses in a different way I mean the entrepreneurs won't be affected by Trump losing so much so probably entrepreneurially yes politically no why are dog parks closed well I think same reason is yeah I keep seeing this always bothers me you know Fox News sometimes take life's to take the the easy the easy sounding political statement so I saw last night that they were questioning why you could do some

[58:37]

were questioning why you could do some things but you couldn't play tennis do you not understand why you can't play tennis during a coronavirus thing is there anybody who is who is confused why tennis where you're standing pretty far apart do you not understand why that's that would be bent because the whole point of tennis is you're continually touching the tennis ball that the other guy just had in his hand that's like the whole game is holding a ball in your hand that the other guy just had in his hand you you might as well make out with your tennis partner because I mean that's about as much exposure as you could possibly give to two people you might as well just like take your clothes off and snuggle if you're gonna play tennis because you're sweating you're breathing on the ball and then you had to get to the other guy it couldn't be a more perfect setting for spreading a virus uh-huh yeah well even if you wore gloves yeah I suppose I might be able to help I suppose but still you know the virus would be flying off the ball and it's

[59:39]

would be flying off the ball and it's airborne right every time you hit the ball in theory every time you served and you hit the ball that the air droplets would come off the ball and into your into your face so I don't think there's a glove solution so when I watch Fox News and they say these crazy rules that don't make any sense why can you take a walk in the park or whatever but you can't play tennis well there's a reason there's a reason here's the other one you can walk on the beach but you can't sit on the beach and Fox News acts like they don't understand why that's why that would be different let me explain it to you if you're walking on the beach you almost certainly are keeping social distance except for the person you're with who probably came from your house right if you sit on the beach imagine a bunch of teenagers sitting on the beach are they get a socially distance no no they're not so it's perfectly reasonable to assume that if you let people sit on

[1:00:40]

to assume that if you let people sit on the beach they're not going to be so good but if you let them walk just the natural way people react they're not gonna walk right next to other people so they get the social distance now is that smart or not smart I don't know I don't know it's not crazy it's act like to act like that's crazy it just bothers me it's like you might think that doesn't help make that much difference and you could argue that freedom should allow you to be on the beach anyway that would be a good argument a good argument would be just let people do whatever they want and we'll work it out you can agree with that or disagree with it that's a good argument but let freedom be free let them let them collect on the beach anyway they won't I well I'm not sure I would even disagree with that argument but I'm only calling out the fact that there's a totally a difference between walking which is probably entirely safe and collecting in groups no matter where you're collecting on a group beach or

[1:01:41]

you're collecting on a group beach or otherwise we don't know that to be true I've got a feeling this sitting on the beach outdoors is about as much risk as you know nothing but it's not crazy to imagine there might be something there all right um they're told they can sit on sand but not chairs I don't know about that yeah I'm definitely of the camp that you need to make your own decisions about which these rules to obey I do think that the wearing masks in businesses that require them I feel like that's that's one you should take seriously if not for yourself for your fellow citizens there are other things I saw today that teenagers who have boyfriends and girlfriends they're not being allowed to see them yeah so they're doing weird you know zoom meetings and they see each other six feet away and stuff and here's a question I want to ask you do any of you

[1:02:42]

question I want to ask you do any of you have teenagers in your house I want to ask this question how many of you have a teenager in the house who is not hanging around with friends and boyfriends and girlfriends are all of your teenagers finding a way to to hang out with other teenagers and I'm just wait a second see your your comments my assumption is that the the amount of cheating on these guidelines is massive and that people are just sort of doing it on the down-low that's my assumption all right
ilan mask instead of Elon Musk what shouldn't Elon Musk make us a mask I'll tell you that here's the mask I want I want the mask that has a built in far UV light so that it's killing whatever's behind my mask all the time it's just odd yeah it's just a little UV light shooting at my lips is just killing

[1:03:42]

shooting at my lips is just killing anything think it's near why can't I have that why can't I have the Tesla of masks all right that's all for now I will talk to you later