Episode 964 Scott Adams: Grab Your Beverage Because it’s Time For…

Date: 2020-05-09 | Duration: 1:02:43

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: Adam Schiff lied for years…but broke no laws We do NOT know if Russia hacked DNC? Law enforcement targeted/framed President Trump to take him out “Cheryl The Server” theory applied to the lockdown

If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.

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## Transcript

[0:06]

everybody it's time yeah and for coffee with Scott Adams studio coming online any moment now Alexa turned on studio
oh there we go bump bump bump bump bump bump hold on if your desk doesn't have a rolling chair you're missing a lot is there are very few things more fun than rolling around in your office standing up and walking that's for suckers get yourself a nice rolling chair uh true story well I'll tell you after the simultaneous it cuz I know you're here for that you're probably ready you don't want your coffee the cold it's probably up you ready and all you needed was a

[1:06]

up you ready and all you needed was a cup of our girl glass detector chelators tie the canteen Joker flask FS a little baby kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee enjoyed me down for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine you know the day the thing that makes everything better including the damn pandemic it's called the simultaneous sip it happens now go I feel my vitamin D levels increasing to acceptable range yeah yeah I think that just happened now probably is a lot of vitamin D in coffee but I feel there's nothing that coffee can't fix really so I reminded myself of a story from my childhood so when I was a kid my grandmother would sometimes babies have been actually fairly often yeah my my grandmother had sort of a little apartment room in a farmhouse at

[2:06]

little apartment room in a farmhouse at a farm and it used to be were where she had been married to the farmer but her son took over so her son was running the farm and she had sort of a little you know a grandma apartment within the farmhouse so I would go as a little kid and and I would have to be with my grandmother all day long now let me describe what it was like to be with my grandmother all day long
so you just have to get this picture so I grabbed what they're like to quilt she would make quilts and because a quilt is a pretty big object you you lay it down on some kind of a table you know device so you can walk around all the edges and put it in the pieces and it's a long project so your your quilt table if you will will be set up and therefore need of days or weeks however long you working on your quilt the primary room that was her area was filled almost

[3:09]

that was her area was filled almost entirely by the quilt in the middle so there was a narrow path around the edges which was the only place I could be except for outside and you know if the weather wasn't good wasn't really an option so by entire world as a kid was this narrow path around a quilt but it gets better my grandmother weighed about 300 pounds and she had a rolling office chair so that she could roll around the quilt without getting up and work on her quilt and then she pushed herself around and you know work on the next part and she would turn on her soap operas which are in this little room so at age I don't know whatever it was eight or something seven or eight my entire day was being chased by my grandmother who was walking around the quilt now walking pushing the chair around and I'd have to move all the time and there wasn't a place to go except further around the quilt while

[4:12]

except further around the quilt while she while she listened to her daytime soap operas now if you're a kid listening to daytime soap operas you just want to kill yourself listening to them for like seven hours in a row while walking around the perimeter of a quilt being chased by a 300-pound woman on an office chair well that's how my childhood looked and I'm not even telling you the bad parts
magician Roy Horn of Siegfried and Roy died from kovat 19 complications at age 75 now I've been telling you that my my personal standard for what I'm going to get worried is if the first famous person under 70 dies of the corona virus virus because I'm looking at my odds and I'm saying okay I'm a famous person I'm under 70 so my category has so far a zero deaths famous people under 70 in

[5:13]

zero deaths famous people under 70 in the United States then I saw this headline and I'm like oh shoot I don't know how old he was he was 75 which is way too young still in this world and I'm sure he had still some complications I think from the tiger attack years ago but sadly he passed and I felt that this would felt like a like I got grazed you know something you can hear the bullet go by you could feel the wind passed you're here to go and I'm thinking famous person only five years over 70 it's getting closer so I'm not going to be worried until my category has its first death because what are the odds that would be me all right there is yet another drug cocktail combination that is getting some promising reviews over a harm car they've tested a I guess it's

[6:14]

harm car they've tested a I guess it's existing HIV drug combination so it's got ritonavir and the lopata vir and beta interferon now as you know the beta interferon drug is that's what Democrat men take the beta interferon because what that does is it makes you more of a beta now I'm just kidding I don't know why they named it beta interferon if they don't want me to make fun of it but here's the thing I it called me skeptical but you know all the drug companies are saying the same thing which has given the compressed timeline we don't really have time to develop a whole new drug that's perfect for this virus it would just take too long so they're using all this off-the-shelf stuff just to see now one of the odds that you would have any kind of a new was a new disease that

[7:15]

kind of a new was a new disease that pops up in the world what are the odds then a new disease a new virus and do anything would be treatable with old drugs I mean it's not impossible but one of the odds that the pharmaceutical company has just happened to have on the shelf REM des aveer which isn't used for anything else but they got a patent they know how to make it wouldn't it be convenient if they could find some way to convince people this works four thousand dollars a shot or whatever it is so what I see that these existing HIV drugs were tested and they got good results I don't think they have any cut a whole scientific study but they anecdotally with their small group they were getting better about twice as fast or maybe 1/3 faster and I don't think they have any information on death yet because they weren't really testing people who are near death anyway so I am really really skeptical really

[8:20]

so I am really really skeptical really really skeptical of any existing drug working for this I'm really skeptical so you know my I'll give you my my estimates of odds now for those of you who are not if you're new to this if I say the odds of something are 80% chance that it will happen and then it doesn't have happened I wasn't wrong right you have to understand that or you can't play saying the odds can be right even if the less likely thing happens so so it's not I'm not telling you what's going to happen just give you odds I'd say hydroxychloroquine I'm still putting a 40% chance that that makes a big difference there's a higher chance that it makes a difference probably a 40% chance that some kind of a game-changer I base that in the fact that we would already know that if it were that big a deal we would know it by now you know easily we would know by now

[9:22]

now you know easily we would know by now there's a hundred ways we would know it by now if it worked that well but there's certainly indications it might work a little bit and that's that's still worth something so 40 percent chance that hydroxychloroquine is a game-changer higher chance that has some effectiveness I'm Jess aveer I'm going to put at 10% I can say there's a 10% chance that REM does of here is going to be the game changer again it might also have some effect in some situations but baby 10% chance then there's HIV cocktail combination you know it's still way too early to know if it really makes difference there's it's not really a controlled study or anything I would say one of the odds that this cocktail that was made for a completely different reason would also work well enough to be a game-changer I'm going to say just I

[10:24]

game-changer I'm going to say just I just can't believe that we coincidentally happily invented the right drug before the virus occurred I mean that would be a big coincidence so I'd say 20% 20% chance that this particular combination is the magic bullet and then there's you know another hundred things out there that are being tested right all sorts of monoclonal things and whatnot and I would say that the odds of let's say at least one of those things that I haven't mentioned yet so the the whole category of things that I haven't mentioned so I have been shin hundred hydroxychloroquine these HIV drugs REM does appear so those are one category but the whole other category that's not those for a game-changer let's say 50% I'd say there's a solid 50% chance that there's something in the pipeline that could really just just

[11:25]

pipeline that could really just just yank this thing back to where it needs to be 50/50 I wouldn't count on it those are my best guesses these are based on nothing by having been alive a long time looking at the dog that isn't barking you know like we're not hearing that it's doing better like the hydroxychloroquine but we could all be surprised so one of the things that Mark Cuban was saying in an interview talking about the economy coming back online is that the economy in 2020 is nothing like any any broken economy of the past and I would like to add to that thought the thing that's really really weird and unpredictable about this coming economic recovery is nothing's broken like physically it's not like a world war where your buildings don't exist and you got to rebuild them everything sort of they're also all the people to do the work are already here and they're

[12:27]

work are already here and they're already trained so you've got the jobs the building's the assets the people it's all perfectly intact the parth is broken is the psychology of it and possibly consumer spending us as Mark Cuban was pointing out what we don't know is will the people who go back and that once they can spend will they because a lot of people don't have money but as I pointed out the other thing that's weird about this one is there for something like 15% of people are unemployed but of those 15% how many of them were making a lot of money to begin with right how many of the people who lost their jobs let's say servers and restaurants you know you can go right down the line retail retail people they were not the big income people for the most part they're the ones barely getting by and probably a lot of them had to live with someone else to pay the rent so they either had

[13:28]

else to pay the rent so they either had someone else who could be earning the family they might be living at home you know so so if you took that 15 percent how much is the total buying power as consumers that was in that 15 percent now it was some of those people are going to be high income people because you'd have to throw me in there - you know I basically have lost my job I'm just waiting for the waiting for the notice basically in fact my syndication company is already already told me the cats on the roof you know that joke I got a letter that says well the cats on the roof newspapers are going out of business they want to renegotiate don't know if we'll get paid so I'm approaching unemployed in you know not in the way of having a salary job but essentially my job just went away or it's on the way it's on the path of Norway it's harder

[14:29]

it's on the path of Norway it's harder know if I might throw it in that average - so my buying power will good at about 75% but mostly the 15% of unemployed were the ones who are not making that much money to begin with so in terms of numbers of people it's a it's a disaster because it's a lot of people who are struggling because they don't have money but if you just talk about math the total buying power of that 15% might be 4% of the consumer purchasing I'm just just guessing because it's a big group 15% of the public but they didn't buy much because they didn't have much to begin with so the people who still had a job spend way less while they're on lockdown they actually have extra money and pent-up demand everybody who wanted to buy a car for the last three months well maybe some of them ten I think car

[15:29]

maybe some of them ten I think car dealers are actually open but probably just a lot of pent up demand so if I had to guess now the real problem is that the businesses that are opening up under capacity there's no way you can open up a rest or a movie theater at 25 percent capacity there's almost no point to it it would be smarter to go out of business at that point because you're just yeah every day that you're open at 25 percent capacity you just lose the money so and I suppose it'd just be easier to declare bankruptcy a big restaurant chain around here sweet tomatoes I think just declared bankruptcy a big Nordstrom the the biggest store in my area my town is Nordstrom yeah it's part of the that one mall in my town and that just it's the anchor tenants and they just decided that they're closing that store I don't know about Nordstrom in general but that that store looks like it'll be closed forever so these are pretty big changes

[16:32]

forever so these are pretty big changes but here's what I'm gonna add to Mark Cuban's comments we've never been in a position where everything was not broken physically the people were all trained and here's the part I'm going to add we've got the best communication we've ever had and I think that it's that ability to instantly communicate both on you know in digital ways but also social media ways which are also digital but we can connect and find each other and find problems and solve problems in a way that was never possible before so you know take take the most trivial example oh you saw that there were some restaurants in tamp I think that closed the streets in front of the restaurant so they can move the tables onto the street and have lots of space and you so that you could still have your restaurant now in theory you can get a lot closer to a hundred percent capacity by spreading your tables into the street that's an idea that would pop up in one

[17:37]

that's an idea that would pop up in one place then there's a news story or some social media and then suddenly every restaurant here's the idea now think about the difference of having no communication or poor communication early on and let's say the 1918 pandemic and then some restaurant has a good idea how would the other restaurant ever hear about that good idea wait for it to be written up in a physical newspaper and hope that you you saw that newspaper that somebody says Seattle did it - right now I don't know to what extent that that idea was just so obvious that everybody would have thought of it maybe it's possible but I have to think that there were probably 80% of the restaurants who wouldn't have thought of it they would just would have said I guess we can't open up but the fact that some of them had that idea allows that idea to just spread across the country immediately likewise every time anybody has a good idea anywhere it immediately spreads because we're so

[18:38]

immediately spreads because we're so well connected so my my take on this is that a economic recovery under these unique conditions should be spectacular the conditions being nothing's broken everybody's trained half the country probably has more money than before the the crisis they're still gonna spend and the people who lost their jobs were in the by and large and lower economic to strata to begin with they weren't a big part of the consumer spending and
communication is great if you add communication to this mix things can recover quite quite quickly so I'm very optimistic about 2021 here's that here's the weirdest thing here's a dark thought you know I keep watching the the evolving flim collusion brush occlusion

[19:39]

evolving flim collusion brush occlusion story and now that we've seen the actual documents and we know that Adam Schiff was lying to the country for what years how long was Adam Schiff lying and and a lot of our leaders are lying but let's just talk about Adam Chef because he seems to be the the primary purveyor of the hoax so my understanding is that he broke no laws because members of Congress have immunity so because he had immunity he was able to lie to the country in in such a way and it's such a consistent in public way that he effectively attempted a coup not even effectively he attempted a coup I don't even have to add effectively he tried to remove the government of the United States by lying consistently and grotesquely in the most in ways which

[20:41]

grotesquely in the most in ways which are now obvious we couldn't really tell before he didn't really know you didn't really know but now you know here's the weird thing when you think to yourself alright so somebody tried to overthrow the legally elected government of the United States well what would be the penalty for that you know what in your mind what feels like the right to penalty to match it wasn't a crime but it was a bad thing let's call it a bad thing that was not technically illegal what what do you imagine would be the appropriate punishment for that well if you like me execution now you could argue I don't believe in the the death penalty I prefer life in prison but I don't know I think it coup attempt a coup attempt at actual treason against the United States given how much this cost all of us I

[21:41]

given how much this cost all of us I mean there is a good argument that it was really expensive even including not being as prepared for the coronavirus maybe I'm not sure I believe that it was made of - any difference given that we had bad information about it during that period but I it's just blowing my head up that somebody did something that a a reasonable citizen who's not who's not crazy who's just looking at the situation I'm a reasonable citizen and if I'm being objective this person we now know we don't have to guess about it anymore we now know we're certainly a to overthrow the president with it was treason and it feels like the right punishment is execution is that is that too much am I going too far I mean because traditionally that's the

[22:42]

because traditionally that's the traditional penalty for treason now I don't think we kill people in the in the United States for treason I think actually we don't have the I think the death penalty is maybe on the table but not always use that sort of thing but it's just blowing my mind that I'm legitimately not even in a political sense just my my natural human citizen instinct of how bad it was what he did feels like if it had been a crime which it isn't the right penalty would be execution is that too much because I actually don't think it is like I don't even think it's a little bit too much now if you said no execution life imprisonment you know I'd say okay that's more of a philosophical difference but in terms of the extent of the crime and the extent of the punishment it's in that range but instead do you know his punishment will be almost certain re-election

[23:44]

be almost certain re-election almost certain re-election that's why he'll get for that you'll actually he's gonna get it rewarded now when we're talking about hoaxes and of course you know I'm usually talking about hoaxes that are presented by you know the Democrats against Trump those are the the famous ones you know rush occlusion the fine people hoaxes the ingesting Clorox hoax the the gold fish feeding hoax I mean you know read that in line it's just honks after hoax but it's not just one direction people it's not just one direction I'm watching the coverage last night and the opinion shows on Fox talking about a chef and there I think Tucker was doing this showing clips of you know shifts saying yes there's plenty of evidence that the Trump campaign colluded with Russia

[24:45]

Trump campaign colluded with Russia so they'd show him saying that and then they'd show you the evidence that there's nobody who testified there was any evidence of that no direct evidence of that whatsoever so the implication is that the experts on oath are saying we didn't see any evidence yet Schiff is taking is going out in public and saying plenty of evidence so therefore shifts a liar except he's being taken out of context I hate that I have to defend the guy I think should have the death penalty I'm gonna defend Adam Schiff is for your benefit so you can sort of have a better appreciation of how you might be being manipulated by the news here's how you're being manipulated when Adam Schiff says there's plenty of evidence of collusion by the campaign his specific examples are the Don jr. meeting which did happen but the way interpreted of course is

[25:45]

but the way interpreted of course is crazy but at least it happened and the fact that the president said it in public that time hey Russia if you can get us those emails you know why don't you do it so when Schiff says there's plenty of evidence he's looking he's looking at the things that we do know about and he's simply interpreting them as evidence he's not talking about the same kind of stuff that the the people who were testifying we're talking about they were talking about real evidence like you've seen Russia do something there's an email as a taped conversation like real evidence but they the people who said there's no evidence would also have acknowledged Don Jr went to a meeting and that the President did once say in public at that debate a Russia you know if you have those emails Hillary's emails so when you see those things juxtaposed as they say there's no evidence and then chefs shift says there's plenty if you leave out that

[26:46]

there's plenty if you leave out that part where the plenty is talking out is the stuff that we do know exist he's just interpreting it differently I don't feel that's exactly honest honestly no I still think that what he did is so dishonest that you know he doesn't just he doesn't really deserve a fair shake at this point but and and and of course what he was doing by defining those trivial things as being plenty of evidence is completely bogus completely bogus but it's it's the complete story you have to say that's what he was talking about before you say it's bogus otherwise you're just confusing the listeners I think so em Schiff is still saying there's plenty of evidence and still using those trivial examples the other thing that was interesting that Tucker was talking about is that and I don't think I'd heard this told was on the show and by the way if you didn't watch talkers show last night it was really really good one of the best

[27:48]

really really good one of the best I think Tucker's show last night was one of the best he's ever done you know overall I didn't like that the Adam Schiff treatment but if you looked at the whole show it was really good because it's the first time I've seen it laid out as bare as that you know just just showing us what happens what the the things we found out in the transcripts that were important I think it was laid out really well and the thing that I hadn't seen reported anywhere until Tucker talked about it was that you know how we the government has been telling us that we're sure Russia hacked hacked I don't know Podesta or the DNC or whatever remember we were all sure that they did and I think you remember that from the beginning maybe you don't remember but from the beginning I've been saying are we sure do you really believe that we can know who hacked something because I've got a real question about whether we can know that

[28:50]

question about whether we can know that I don't know what we can know right we know what we're told but we know that we're being told frequently we're told things that aren't true I mean it's just happening literal everyday we're being told things that aren't true by you know the government intelligence agencies the news pretty much everybody's telling us untrue things so when I first heard that we could tell who hacked us I said to myself if we can tell who hacked us then I don't know what hacking even is because if these top-secret intelligence agencies were the best the best technical hackers in the world are leaving their fingerprints on their hacks I don't understand the world because really the whole point of the hacks is not getting caught and you would know if you could get caught right wouldn't you know if you were leaving a fingerprint so from the beginning I said to myself we could strongly suspect who

[29:53]

to myself we could strongly suspect who did it but I don't know that we could ever know and sure enough the transcript shows that when asked directly if we know we don't know it was just a lie the whole time so you're watching the story I know about I guess there are 11 Secret Service people who have the corona virus and there are several members of the fence and Trump staff people are pretty close to him who have tested positive neither Pence nor Trump have tested positive but here's the obvious thing I often tell you that you can predict the future when you see this situation which is there's a situation with a big potential upside that there's a lot to gain and there's no risk of getting caught well so let's say it's something that isn't legal but you know you're not going to get caught and the gain is just gigantic does it happen

[30:54]

gigantic does it happen yeah every time it'll happen every time and then the third criteria is that there's multiple people involved in this situation meaning that it's not just one person who might potentially say hey I'm a good person I'm the only person who has this opportunity for this huge upside game but I'm not that kind of person because illegal so if you only had one person you might get one that was honest could turn down a billion dollars because it just isn't right but if you've got a lot of people in your situation somebody's gonna take the billion dollars alright so I looked at this situation of the people who have the corona virus infections and I say to myself if you were let's say a sophisticated country that had capabilities and you wanted to bother another country and possibly assassinate their leader who is over 70 how would you do it now I'm not giving anybody ideas because it's just so obvious you have to assume that every

[31:55]

obvious you have to assume that every intelligence agency thought this on day one which is wait a minute if I were to infect their outer circle which is probably easy because you could find people who work at the White House who are not themselves guarded you could easily infect theirs you know their their place where they're gonna be you know the I don't want to give you too many ideas now it's something it's not something that an individual could easily do because how would you get you know a little vial of corona virus for yourself if you wanted to do bad things with it it'd be kind of hard unless you were personally in fact but if you're a government and you're an intelligence agency of course you can get yourself a little vial of corona virus and here's the thing imagine I'll just give you one example Iran they have elderly leaders who are the big problem and then you've got a number of countries in the area I don't need to name names who would have

[32:56]

don't need to name names who would have the capability and the motive did get a little bit of coronavirus to the advisors because that and then the advisors will do the rest inadvertently so when you saw as soon as I saw that Iran was having extra big problems kind of early on I said to myself huh a very unpopular regime surrounded by highly capable enemies who could easily do this without getting caught and then statistically well you got a pretty good chance that it's gonna mess up the other side huge upside potential practically no chance of getting caught lots of people involved do you think anybody intentionally tried to infect the Iranian leadership probably right do you think Iran tried to intentionally affect in fact the advisers of the

[33:57]

affect in fact the advisers of the Israeli government probably probably why wouldn't they or at least try do you think anybody any malign actors would try to do the same thing with the leadership of the United States if they would interfere with our elections if they would be sending us a fentanyl of course they would so you don't have to ask would they because of course they would we have we have such a history where it's just obvious of course they would but only if there was a big big gain potential gain and almost no chance of getting caught and that's what we got because if somebody shows up and they have the corona virus how the hell would you know where it came from you wouldn't it's the most I don't know it's just I'm a risk management perspective I can't imagine that this

[34:58]

perspective I can't imagine that this isn't what being used I know by a dozen different countries trying to take out a rival country I mean I would bet there are 12 countries right now they're trying to mess with some other government this way because why wouldn't they just why wouldn't they really somebody says never heard of tracing well the tracing isn't going to get it done I mean it would be too easy to put it into that trail all right the newest hoax is the pen scurrying empty boxes of PPE you probably saw the videos I think Jimmy Kimmel started it where they they acted like he was carrying empty boxes to put he was helping but in fact he was carrying full boxes to pretend he was helping it's sort of a hoax of a hoax I mean obviously if the Vice President is moving boxes it's obviously for the cameras right

[35:59]

it's obviously for the cameras right we're all adults right nobody thinks that he was just helping out of course it was film cameras but I guess he joked about empty boxes or something and they got that on camera and put it together then tried to act like he was moving empty boxes but does it matter does it matter if the but if the boxes were empty it was just a video thing that's all it was it doesn't matter if it was empty I mean if they were followed they were full of these light paper goods it makes no difference at all it's the story that didn't need to be told at all no importance whatsoever all right I told you I've been digging into this vitamin D correlation with coronavirus and whether it helps you recover from Co vid or not and there's just tons of information but a lot of it is amateurs making their own graphs and not doing it right so I tested again my model of taking somebody's claim in this case it was a

[37:01]

somebody's claim in this case it was a graph that showed it purported to show that the the more vitamin D you had the better you did with the covent but I asked people to take a look at it in my Twitter feed and you know all the doctors and scientists pour it in and said bogus bogus bogus bogus so that was good that so I got debunked fairly quickly it's a good model I think I would be using that a lot where I'll just put it out there and say comments and sure enough it got debunked but that doesn't mean that vitamin D has no role it just means that you should be really really cautious of everything you see about it everything literally every graph you see every set of statistics about vitamin D so far has big problems I think you know so none of it is conclusive that I've that I've seen but

[38:01]

conclusive that I've that I've seen but are still promising so we'll keep looking into that so there's a I guess he's a Democrat who on Twitter he's some kind of data scientist guy and or yeah he's a scientist I guess and he tweets us he goes I feel my brain robbing every time I talk to a Republican like I was so bad to help them understand I'm a damn good teacher and I honestly believe everyone is redeemable but good lord it's like their brains got swapped with the donkey's now he is a youngish guy I judged by his profile picture younger she looks like the 30s maybe can't tell but I love watching somebody right before the red pill because somebody suggested that he talked to me what would happen if he talked to me well

[39:02]

would happen if he talked to me well he's gonna he'll be choking back to the biggest red pill of his life and I love look I love being the observer of this person's journey now he's he's he's at the lowest level of awareness right now the lowest level of awareness is that your site is giving you the truth and the other side is Lyme that is the lowest level of awareness and he's a scientist and in public he's proclaiming himself to be at the lowest level of awareness because his view is that Republicans have broken brains and his side is getting it right now can you imagine how much fun I would have with this guy - you know apparently he's never been introduced to the next level of reality which is none of its true just none of its true you it's just everybody's interpreting what they want but I could get him there that is all

[40:11]

but I could get him there that is all there is that's happening today and he is the same somebody says he been thinking about the Democrats being having the broken braids yes why I don't know why Hannity's thinking so I wouldn't say that I know what he's thinking but it is true that there are Republicans in the same situation I have not watched the Elon Musk interview I think you're talking about Joe Rogan it's hard for me to watch the law or listen to long-form interviews somebody says Don Lemon brought up the fine people hoax again last night you know you do know that people like Don Lemon probably have never even heard the counter-argument and I think people like Don Lemon to actually think it happened and they actually believe it happened because that's widespread all right I'm

[41:15]

because that's widespread all right I'm just looking at you're talking about bar being the worst attorney general yeah we've had some Attorney General's that did not bring glory to the office
planned emic has been banned well I'm still waiting for the the counter-argument unplanned emic he tried to blame the shooting of the of the black kid on Trump who did bus I don't think so I ever challenged lemon why would I challenge him it's not like he's gonna have any kind of a conversation with me
just say Kim still relaxing yeah and nobody's seen Kim jong-un lately yet

[42:17]

nobody's seen Kim jong-un lately yet there will be more about that story thoughts on a mood Aubry well here's here's some thoughts
it's it's sort of a made-for-television crime now I'm going to call it a crime without the benefit of the legal system having yet to fully wade in because it looks more like a really bad judgment in my case so I think what happened was everybody involved the two people who were chasing Aubree down and then our brain for reasons that I don't quite understand decided to wrestle with a guy and trying to wrestle his gun away from them and I can't think that was his best play so I think you had three people who were all under the wrong impression of what was going on I think Aubree

[43:19]

what was going on I think Aubree probably thought his life was in danger in some senses it was of course but probably didn't know exactly what was going on and maybe thought it was a different situation than it was and everybody was just mistaken and so when I look at this thing I hear people putting it in a political frame because that's what we do and you know maybe they're racist and maybe this and it's a symbol of what's happening in the country and it's another example of racism well that I don't know they're to send me of that it just looks like three people who were subject to confirmation bias and actually I don't even know if the if the two two guys with the guns I don't even know if they were having confirmation bias or they were just trying to find out and they did it in the worst possible way in other words what are they just trying to find out if this was the person I think they have some video cameras video

[44:20]

they have some video cameras video images of somebody trying to break into places in the area and of course we haven't seen that half way I'm not suggesting that the deceased was doing anything bad I have no information that would suggest that but since they P the the people who chased him down we're doing it because he matched some description of somebody who had broken into homes but I don't know if the description was based on the video video image was her I assume there was some kind of video that captured him so at some point we're gonna see a video I'm guessing I don't know if there is video but I think we might see a security video of somebody breaking into homes in the area and then we can judge for ourself does it look sufficiently like the the victim who got shot and killed you know is it close enough where you'd say okay I can see how they'd make that mistake you know they were just going to get a better look they were sure maybe they're

[45:23]

better look they were sure maybe they're profiling like young black male so but you know so you could certainly argue that the racism was part of the part of the confirmation bias fair to say I'm not sure if it's racism if it's just based on a physical look though I mean wouldn't they have done the same thing if the description had been he looked like a white hillbilly in overalls overalls wouldn't they have chased anybody who looked like a white hillbilly and overalls if if what they were trying to do is find a burglar so certainly the the victims race was part of the bad decision-making but I think that they would also have been susceptible to bad decision-making if it had been any other color as well including their own because if that was just what they'd heard well he's a you know blond guy 45 wearing overalls so they saw a blond guy 45 wearing overalls would they not have

[46:25]

45 wearing overalls would they not have chased it you know would they have let him go because he was white I don't think so so I think yeah I think he got to be a little more clever about saying what it wasn't the bias them because being biased by the physicality of someone who's been described is different than being a racist that's are pretty different things yeah it was just the description wasn't good enough that's that's not racism but these things of course turn into something else let me let me let me give you a hypothesis I'm just gonna put that out there if you are a black citizen of the United States let me not even pretend I can know how you feel or how you think because we none of us know how anybody feels or thinks so anybody who's not you you don't really know how they're thinking let's let's be a little humble about

[47:25]

let's let's be a little humble about that but I'll put this in the form of a question let's say you're and if there any african-american viewers on this I would love to get your opinion right now so you can confirm or debunk what I'm saying if you're a black let's say you're a black man in the United States we'll just make it a man to keep the example simple you're a black man living in the United States do you think that law enforcement treat you unfairly what do you think typical black man living in the United States is it your opinion that the legal system treats you unfairly probably yes wouldn't you say again everybody's different you know you don't want to make a sweeping generalization but I would think that's a fair generalization now let's say you're a black man you feel that the law enforcement has been unfair to you and you're watching the news and the biggest

[48:26]

you're watching the news and the biggest story is that the FBI and the Department of Justice apparently just tried to frame a general in the general of why general and take down the President of the United States with false accusations there's something happening here that if you don't notice it could be really really big Trump just became a black man let that sink in for a minute Trump just became black think about it youyou said we said that Bill Clinton was the first black president Trump's number three because Trump just shares one of the biggest I know experiences of being a black man in America which is that law enforcement targeted you and

[49:27]

that law enforcement targeted you and tried to take you out with a bogus crime if you're a black guy and you're watching Trump attempted to be taken out with a bogus charge what do you feel about that seriously how do you feel about that because if that doesn't make you a little bit more empathetic about Trump's situation now let's go further what has Trump done in terms of black people in prison he is quite noticeably and publicly worked hard to free black people who or let's say over over penalized that I don't know if any of them more literally innocent of the crime they were committed but they are over penalized you know like you Alice Johnson etc and then the entire prison reform movement which is entirely not

[50:27]

reform movement which is entirely not entirely but it's mostly it's going to get people and prison early huge number of them over-represented are the black community so just by a weird confluence of things I'm not joking I think Trump just became the third black president without even trying because nobody is champion their side and also gotten the same treatment that I imagine they feel they get from law enforcement and that's a pretty big bonding experience now I don't know if Trump will ever be clever enough to to tie the ideas together because you know he supports law enforcement and he's not gonna be anti cop that's not gonna happen but he certainly could say in public you know if you're a if you're a black man living in the United States I'll tell you one thing I understand that imagine imagine President Trump saying this in public let me let me tell you one thing if

[51:29]

let me let me tell you one thing if you're a black man living in the United States and you're worried about law enforcement treating you unfairly I get it I get it that you know I there's nothing I understand better than that law enforcement targeting you for a crime you didn't commit treating you unfairly I get it how much would you love to say that you know it's one of these it sort of sneaks up on you because when you're talking about the rush of collusion thing you're not thinking about you know race relations it's just a sort of a little story but the way the way stories affect us you know they they what we do is we say is the person in the story unlike to me or not like me it's just automatic the reason we like stories is you put yourself in the story and the story of Russia collusion I feel if you were a black man you know could be a woman too but you know men are more likely to be

[52:30]

but you know men are more likely to be in the the penal system but if you're a black man in America and you just watched the revelation that the President of the United States was framed for a crime how do you not feel a little empathy for that while that same person is freeing black people from over being over penalized in prisons there's just no way that doesn't affect you will it be enough who knows all right
that's a mind-blower isn't it I can see in the comments that some of you are are really really thinking about that one the hero's journey somebody says yeah so movies feature a story arc where the hero changes so that that's what makes a good story is the hero starts down as one kind of person and they've you know they've learned their heart is opened or they've become better at something whatever all right so he says Trump is

[53:42]

whatever all right so he says Trump is literally a person of color because he's orange that's funny all right it's an interesting theory theory but as stretch somebody says could be well let me give you an update on one of my predictions which looks like based on preliminary information could be totally wrong but we know that preliminary information is often totally wrong itself so this isn't funny at all so let me let me get out of my good mood so that I don't say this in the wrong way it turns out that these statistics for at least anecdotally the statistics for suicide are pretty pretty alarming now all the smart people said economic destruction and losing your job and being socially isolated should lead

[54:42]

and being socially isolated should lead to higher suicide rates and tragically and early indications are that that might be happening at least you know more reportedly but not I don't think anybody's gonna study out of that I had predicted the opposite which that I was going to predict that suicide would go down and I used the Sheryl the server theory for that which is that everything reduces when people think there's a new situation happening like everything everything that would have happened stops happening whether it was good or bad because your urologist adjusting to the new situation and so that was my theory but the longer the lockdown goes the longer it goes the less the theory can hold right so the Cheryl the server theory is only is only meant to be for a short time so her I'll give you the exact theory again so she would say that the restaurant business

[55:42]

would say that the restaurant business would go down when something changed so if the weather became seasonally good business would go down because people would want to go outside if it rained and started to be rainy that week the business would go down because people didn't want to be in the rain so it didn't matter if it was good weather or bad weather business always went down just because it was a change and people change the behavior when there's some larger change but that the Sherrill effect wears off after a few days which is that you know one day of nice weather your business will go to nothing but after two weeks of good weather business goes back to where it was people are just look out we had a little outdoor time let's go back to the restaurant so we've been in lockdown so long that there it does make sense that when you're looking at second third month of a lockdown and unemployment yeah yeah at that point you'd have to assume that the

[56:43]

that point you'd have to assume that the lockdown becomes normal as soon as being locked down starts to fear normal to feel normal and it's unambiguously worse than what even the worse the previous situation was and maybe people wanted to end their lives anyway so I can see how it would go from so here I will refine my prediction and say this I'll bet for the first few weeks suicide went down but I'll bet by the final weeks oh actually by the final weeks it might go down again if people are saying well it's only one more week but somewhere right around now should be the worst of it so it probably will be higher than average for a while so that's pretty tragic so it looks like my prediction will be wrong but maybe we can learn something from from the the individual weeks because I do think I still feel confident that the first week or two of the shutdown will be lower suicide rates

[57:46]

the shutdown will be lower suicide rates and after that I wouldn't be surprised if they went up again all right um
I'm homeless now because of the China virus well I'm sorry you know I've not seen much news about people going hungry have you we we saw some news for a while it seemed like there was about a week or two where every now and then you see the long food lines and various cities but I thought that the news would just keep showing more and more of them and the lines would get longer and there'd be more cities involved but it feels like the coverage of the Food lines just sort of stopped didn't it now is that because we have enough food and we still have the lines but they're getting their food so it's not a story anymore is that why does anybody know what happened to the Food lines still they're getting worse getting better it feels like that's some

[58:46]

getting better it feels like that's some who says Food lines still in New York City but I guess I guess how much of a new how much of a news it is depends on whether they have enough because you can have a pretty long line if they're you can have a long line and it's not as much of a problem if there's enough food and then the line is moving quickly that's a different level of tragedy than the people at the end of the line aren't going to get any food so it's looking to me like we're meeting the the hunger problem right Lester Holt news had it on last night okay so maybe yeah it could be that just because it's not new anymore about I would think that the news would be all over that still here in Ohio
somebody says Mark Cuban claims 96% non-compliance for Texas business distancing have you noticed let me ask

[59:48]

distancing have you noticed let me ask this question and tell me in the comments have you all noticed that there's way less way less compliance this week is it just my imagination I think the the lack of compliance is starting to come online I guess I think most of the beaches were open in California but I had predicted that if the beaches were still closed in California or at least in sections like Oh see if the beaches were closed on Mother's Day that would be the end of the beach close Thanks because if you take your mom to the beach on Mother's Day and like the beach is just full of mothers on Mother's Day especially if there are kids who are them what are the police gonna do because if you if you're looking at the power you'll say to police policemen come to the beach if there's one mom well the police have an advantage if you have 15 moms on a

[1:00:49]

an advantage if you have 15 moms on a beach and they're to police the police are going home the police are just going to give up if you have 15 moms on Mother's Day they're not going to get arrested they're certainly not gonna get arrested they're not gonna get handcuffed if those moms just say thanks for the help officer but we got this I appreciate the advice officer we'll take care of this that's it
it mothers are mothers on Mother's Day are as powerful as a bride on a wedding day if you've ever been through a wedding and you've observed the power of the bride on the wedding day everybody will give the bride whatever they want on the wedding day it's just like a superpower it's like um III that tree is in the way could somebody get out a pocketknife and try to get rid of that oak tree and then suddenly everybody would be like take it out there pocketknives brides and sobriety buddies you know tried to take down the oak tree with their pocket knives you know chewing on it

[1:01:51]

knives you know chewing on it like beavers so yeah I just thought it would be hilarious if the beaches were closed on Mother's Day because you know the mothers would've made a run for it right I don't know if your state is different but I could tell you California moms they were going to the beach a lot of California moms were going to the beach if they had been closed or if they'd been open and it would have been hilarious because you know how it would have ended it would have been funny all right there's snow in Massachusetts somebody said somebody asks what's Telegraph Avenue and Berkeley like in the pandemic probably exactly the same I don't know all right that's all I got for now I will talk to you tonight you know when