Episode 962 Scott Adams: No One Knows Anything But We Still Have to Decide How to reopen Economy

Date: 2020-05-08 | Duration: 1:07:10

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: The Plague of Corruption video General Flynn San Antonio makes phrase “Chinese virus” hate speech Vitamin D deficiency and coronavirus Testing, flattening the curve, magical thinking

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## Transcript

[0:06]

[Music] sure I'm a little bit late this morning but I think that just built the anticipation how many of you were looking at the clock it was 7 a.m. or 10 a.m. on your coast and you said he's usually right on time well I was here and ready but I got I got caught up in something hold on stay there don't go anywhere come right back with notes yes and well I didn't mean to panic you so we have much fun to talk about today is going to be a good one I guarantee it but to enjoy it fully you must be prepared and to be prepared you don't need much all you need is a cup of

[1:08]

don't need much all you need is a cup of margaret glass a tanker chelators tie the canteen jug or flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee enjoyed me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine did of the day the thing that makes everything better including the day and pandemic it's called the simultaneous if it happens now go yep yep I can feel my corona virus antibodies forming in my body and I haven't even been exposed that's how good the coffee is I hope yours is good too so you know how I've been telling you a number of times that there's just something weird about the simulation and and my my connection to it and I keep telling you that although I'm pretty sure there are seven point six billion people in the world for reasons I don't

[2:09]

people in the world for reasons I don't quite understand I keep finding myself in the middle major stories and you don't know how often this happens because I can't tell you all the times that I get pulled into it like an international nun not so much international sometimes but more more national but sometimes international I tend to get pulled into a lot of stuff because people just say this this guy might be able to help or he was interested or or I just know him I'll just tell him something and so I find myself drawn into these giant stories and I I don't know how to explain it but it happened so often let me give you an example the other day somebody sent me a book and it's quite well it's fairly common for people to send books to other authors usually they're looking for a book blurb or sometimes they think you'll be interested maybe they're trying to UM strike up some kind of a connection but it's very common for

[3:11]

connection but it's very common for authors to go to their mailbox and unsolicited somebody has sent them a book now I guess so many of them that of course I can't read them and I don't I don't always they even know why they sent them to me in some cases so I sort of just put up in a pile and I'd look at them once in a while I think maybe I'll read something in that pile and I hardly ever get around to it so I get this book and it was called the plague of corruption and I looked at it and I thought yeah I wonder why somebody thinks I need to look at this you might recognize that name because there's a viral video that YouTube keeps taking down from a dr. Judy Mick Yvette's and the book anyway is from co-author Kent eken Lively and so I didn't think much of it at the time I never heard of the video at the time I just put the book with my other books and actually I had it set he got a little stand I guess I'd like to cover or something so I did

[4:12]

I'd like to cover or something so I did actually put it on the pile with the other books of a sort of featured but I wasn't really planning on reading it and then and then the YouTube thing blows up and it gets more interesting because you're thinking to yourself well Scott you got something in the mail that's not really like being pulled into the middle of a major story that's not really like that at all but I'm not done yet didn't you know there's another part of the story of course there is so the other day maybe a week after I got the book and I had already talked about the the video a little bit on periscope there's a note in my mailbox without an envelope now if you get a note without an envelope in your mailbox it means that somebody knows where you live and they didn't need to put a stamp on it so somebody walked up to my mailbox and physically put a note in my mailbox now that's also not the first

[5:14]

mailbox now that's also not the first time that's happened again if you're in the public eye it's not that strange I'll open my front door and they'll be you know a package with no postage or a no to novel Oh Farren it's fairly common I've had people knock on my door just to talk to me doesn't that but often but every now and then it's rare but it happens so I get this note without an envelope and the note is from Kent eken lively the co-author of the book who apparently lives close enough to my house that he knows which one is my house and he drove over and stuck the note in my so so you can't see it but that's the note in the book and you know he asked me to call him to talk about it now what are the odds that this would be this gigantic story at least on the internet it's a gigantic story not in the mainstream

[6:14]

gigantic story not in the mainstream press but you know I've talked about it it becomes this big thing and then the author lives in my town and drops a note in my mailbox hey do you want to talk I mean really there's something weird going on isn't there I mean I wish I could tell you the other instances in which I get drawn into big stories maybe has happened I think three times this week most of them I can't tell you about but it's crazy I mean it's just crazy so anyway I've been asked a few times on the locals platform where subscribers get to see extra stuff from me and some people asked me to comment on this without knowing of course presumably knowing that I had already commented on it so I'm gonna I'm gonna comment again because I've had more time to think about it and it goes like this so Christina and I were talking about the video she sought separately and when she listened to her she found a very

[7:15]

she listened to her she found a very persuasive and compelling and I said that's funny because I felt the opposite I do think there's plenty in it that's true and also quite concerning but not really that far from what you already assumed to be true about big pharmaceutical companies but then there's sort of another level of of let's say allegation stuff that I don't know that I can go that far so I won't even repeat the level that I'm not sure has credibility but there's certainly a base of credible and concerning things there I just think maybe it goes too far so my own take on it is that I did not find it credible while Christina listened to the whole thing and it sounded credible now she and I usually think similarly enough that I was I was

[8:16]

think similarly enough that I was I was really surprised and I thought you know we talked about it in the car and I said really you know you found that compelling because I was getting the opposite vibe like really strongly and then that it came out that she listened to it whereas I watched it if any of you had that experience at this of the viral video about the plague of corruption has anybody listened to it without watching it and if so was it more compelling when you listened than when you watched because I have to be honest the the visual of it either how we're visual creatures and you make assumptions about people's credibility by their body language their mannerisms probably some of the wrong stuff too like their gender or their age their ethnicity cuz were you know we're all biased terrible people so even if you try not to let those things influence you you're still

[9:18]

those things influence you you're still human right so you can try really hard not to be that kind of person but we are pattern-recognition the animals and you can't really turn it off and so my experience of watching it was that she wasn't credible the way I say not credible I don't mean she's not right that's completely different question because I can't judge if she's right how would I I mean really do I have some kind of independent information that I can look at her claims as well based on my research no nothing like that it is purely looking at the individual somewhat the same way you would do let's say a job interview if you were hiring somebody you would judge them not just by what their you know their resume said you would judge them not just by the facts of the person you would also judge them by the vibe wouldn't you and you'd say I don't know there was something about that person that wasn't quite comfortable with can't put my finger on it
it but there was somebody with the same

[10:19]

but there was somebody with the same skills that I am comfortable with that I'm gonna go with them all right so it's completely natural that we make these judgments and the visual is very important so it might and I don't know how to say this because I don't want to like just be mindlessly insulting or something but i found dr. judy McNiff it's not not persuasive her vibed if you will there was something that was just triggering me and I don't know what it is I don't want to think that it was gender because I don't have you know any experience in my life of thinking that women are less credible you know if they're talking scientifically or it's the field that they're experts in I've never had that thought before I don't think it's that but you know you always have to be on guard for that right so that's my take now I would I would urge this that if you are going to

[11:20]

would urge this that if you are going to decide whether you buy into this you should google the names of at least dr. judy mick Yvette's usually google her and see if you can find at least the counter-arguments now what I haven't seen yet which is weird and maybe this matters where where are the people who are let's say the accused because you know Tony foul she is a big character in inter accusations so there are there are executives there are companies there named individuals who have been alleged to be in bad behavior here's what's missing those same people who have been accused doing a fact check on it and saying um that facts not right that's out of context now have you seen it now somebody says I'm seeing a URL there but I don't want to say it so that might exist by now but here's what I would

[12:21]

exist by now but here's what I would here's what I would caution the credibility you should apply to this when you haven't heard the other side is none all right the the appropriate amount of credibility is none if you haven't heard the other side and that should that's for everything right there's no there should be no exception to this if you haven't heard the other side no credibility but what if you wait a few months and it's a big viral thing and it's impossible to ignore and still the people who have been accused just don't comment but instead YouTube just keeps taking the accusations off of YouTube and the internet is trying to scrub it what what would that tell you if the other side doesn't fact check it because how hard would it be how hard would it be to put a little statement that says you know dr. judy vic if it's made the following claim here's the document that

[13:23]

following claim here's the document that shows that didn't happen or I was there I probably should that didn't happen where is that kind of missing isn't it now it could be it just takes a while it could be that the legal counsel for all involved said a it's just better just to let it go like you know you don't want to give it attention if you respond you give it attention but is that that's a pretty good strategy actually oh for says an article on it today good I'm gonna go check that out so what here's what I had to would expect so I would expect if an independent credible reporter dug into it that what they would find is that a whole bunch of things she says are true but a top of the truth there's probably a level of interpretation which is where things are going to be interesting so I'd like to see that Forbes article and see what what they say all right let's talk about

[14:23]

what they say all right let's talk about a few other things I found out recently that general Flynn is connected to me on Twitter it's such a small world I've never had any connection with him I've tweeted about his situation a number of times and that probably got his attention
but so I sent him a note today and you know I just sort of a congratulation DM I don't know you know what are the odds that general Flynn check says DMS and reads them all especially on a day like this probably got quite a few but I made him the following offer which is that if he decides to write a book I can hook him up with a top literary agent he probably has one already and if he writes a book I'll tweet it out and give him some give him some attention because here's how I feel about this I don't think justice has yet been served do you yeah I feel like justice was half served

[15:25]

yeah I feel like justice was half served but you can't really make up for the time you took from him there's just no way to fix that that time is just going but it's also the past right yeah we don't dwell in the past but what about the financial hit I mean it's not really justice if he comes out of this at a certain age you know sort of an approaching retirement age and he's been wiped out that's that's not justice justice would be a 10 million dollar book deal which I will help him promote the out of it to sell that thing up to the top of the bestseller list because wouldn't you like to hear his story oh yes you would you would like to hear his story I don't know if he'll ever be free to tell it he maybe just can't tell the story for a variety of reasons but I thought I'd put the offer out there because of this small world somehow I had a direct channel to the guy who was the biggest story in the country and if he reads my

[16:26]

story in the country and if he reads my DM and if he decides he wants to do a book I'll help him out all right the someone also on the the locals platform had this had this idea and it's a really good one so let me run this one by you all right so here's the idea that the sea and then types and the you know the anti-trump errs are trying to make whatever they can out of this Flynn thing they're trying to spin it any way they can so it's so it's not so bad and one of the things that you're hearing them say is he pled guilty so how could it be faked if there was if there was a guilty plea and so it's actually a pretty good point for the the low information Watchers if they're just trying to convince their base that it wasn't as bad as people say even though it was as bad as the worst thing you

[17:27]

it was as bad as the worst thing you could think it was actually a coup that's what it was but here here was the suggestion when somebody says yeah but he pled guilty you know you can't you can't ignore that and here's the response to that already so did the Central Park five it's pretty good isn't it now I'd forgotten this and I think it's true do a fact check I'd be that I want to make sure that's true but did not the Central Park five confess and then you know it must have been a coerced confession or something and of course Flynn's guilty plea was also coerced it was coerced so how was that different so just try this out so the suggestion locals was to try this out because apparently it's fun you can induce

[18:27]

apparently it's fun you can induce cognitive dissonance now I've told you how to spot cognitive dissonance before but let me remind you you can induce cognitive dissonance when you get people you watch them carefully the eyes and the face especially and they'll actually go into her reboot mode or that were they just where there's a vacant expression for a moment and it lasts a little bit too long for the social situation so it'd be like this you know blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blow the law well you know Flynn you know he pled guilty that's so you know you got that and then you say so did the Central Park five they were coerced to then look at the face and what you should see is is the vacant expression that lasts too long like and then the next thing that comes out of their mouth if it's cognitive dissonance will be nonsense then what the words will fit together like a sentence but you'll hear it and you'll

[19:29]

sentence but you'll hear it and you'll say I don't even know what that sentence meant because it sounded like nonsense so the way cognitive dissonance works is that the person is trying to find a way that they're still right and that they understand the world even though clearly they're wrong and they didn't and so they invent a little patch sort of on the fly it's like a little logic patch to connect things they shouldn't connect and that logic patch will just be ridiculous because you can't connect connect and then they their brain reboots so trying to know look look for the blank stare that lasts too long might only be two seconds but in a social situation that's going to look too long all right um Rasmussen has the Rasmussen poll and on Twitter there it's a great account to follow if you don't follow our Rasmussen the polling company on Twitter you missing something because they're there social media game is very

[20:32]

they're there social media game is very non corporate you know it's the Rasmussen knows how to use Twitter the way Twitter should be used you know not your dumb little corporate corporate tweets like well we saw dust and water don't say this but you know they're they're funny and engaging and a little provocative so the Rasmussen account is fun to follow and here's a little observation that will blow your mind do you remember the 2018 midterm election and all the smart people said probably the reason that that the Democrats did well and the Republicans didn't was probably health care because that was such a big issue people prefer the Democrats for health care but as Rasmussen determined when they did some polling to dig down on what happened in that midterm election in 2018 they found out that the biggest issue for people who ended up you know voting let's say against the Republicans was that Trump was credibly accused of working for

[21:34]

was credibly accused of working for Russia so we're all looking at these midterms like that told us something's like wow you know that the Democrats are on a they're on a roll you know that they won those midterms so you know that's that tells us something here's what it tells us it tells us how powerful fake news is because that Russian collusion wasn't true didn't happen there's no evidence of it and now all the people involved are admitting that freely there was no evidence that the president or members of his group were actively doing anything there there's evidence that Russian was playing with our election but that that was on them that's not on Trump so it turns out that we're coming into an election cycle in which the Russia collusion story the biggest thing that the Democrats had going for them in the midterm just blew

[22:35]

going for them in the midterm just blew up in their faces so you know I'm not sure that in a presidential election year that policies even matter I mean I really don't I don't think anybody's policy is gonna make a difference I think people are voting for personalities this time for president all right Seattle did something interesting and smart and I would love to see other places do that they closed 20 miles of streets to traffic so residents can exercise and bike on them so instead of having your you know your narrow little sidewalks where everybody wouldn't be bunch it up they just close the street to traffic I think the locals can you know get out of their garage and get back in and stuff so if you're a local you can you know drive slowly on the street but they close it and just make it a big you know exercise place everybody can get outside somewhat safely and I say to myself I want that I mean I've already suggested that in my

[23:37]

mean I've already suggested that in my town so I I've already you know emailed somebody to get that idea into the into the powers that be locally I would expect by local town to close their Main Street because it's just too obviously a good idea it's just really obviously a good idea if you saw the Main Street where I live you know a number of restaurants but there's plenty of roads and parking around that Street you know it's one block away it's it's the perfect it's the perfect solution so I'm glad to Seattle pull the trigger on that
so you're probably watching the news that the San Antonio City Council voted unanimously I don't know how often they vote unanimously on anything they voted unanimously to approve resolution labeling the term quote Chinese virus as hate speech and they encourage people to report it to authorities yeah I know what you think about that I know what you think about

[24:39]

about that I know what you think about that to which I asked the following question can I still refer to Mexican drug cartels or should I just call them drug cartels I can call the Mexican drug cartels Canada because wouldn't that be just as racist because there are a lot of people in Mexico and as a percentage very few of them are members of a cartel so when you say Mexican drug cartel you're kind of throwing all Mexicans under the bus aren't you no you're not you because everybody knows you're talking about just the cartel likewise when people say Chinese virus I don't think they're blaming the citizens of China I don't think anybody's saying we got this virus because you're Chinese I mean everybody understands they're referring to where it came from but I have a suggestion to make everyone happy somebody says don't be racist Scott

[25:40]

don't be racist Scott oh no I'm not watch this watch my next move now you're in the you said it in the comments it's the China virus China is a place Chinese could be referring to a place or a people a little bit ambiguous a little bit open to interpretation and so you can see why the you know the people who want to make something of it will say oh you're talking about people why are you saying Chinese do it which I say is not a terrible point why couldn't we call it the China virus because China clearly is talking about the government and the place and that's an unambiguous Chinese I hear it too you know and while I'm sure the people saying it not saying it for some weird racist reason why bother if you can just call

[26:42]

reason why bother if you can just call it the China flu there's no ambiguity why not tell us you where I came from alright so that would be my suggestion called the China flu however I bristled at the notion that it was hate speech because I've done so much worse talking about China's government I always I always hasten to say that the people are awesome I love the people the citizens great people the government pure evil pure evil oh I see some people like China virus yeah the beauty of China virus is there's not a that's gonna swear there's not a darn thing you can complain about that it gets you the same thing you wanted which is tagging China with the with the problem because that's sort of what you wanted but how is that racist it's the name of the country I mean we didn't name their country that's not on us all right how about this vitamin D

[27:48]

us all right how about this vitamin D correlation so I tweeted this thread yesterday in which I was sort of a let's say extending an existing conversation about vitamin D now the existing conversation was hey this looks like this could be really helpful maybe as a therapy it looks like people who are low on vitamin D are doing worse with it so this vitamin D seems to have importance so so that was already known and widely tweeted at least and certainly science is very firm on the understanding that vitamin D has a role in Beauty so I think we're beyond wondering if it has a role but here's where I've extended it a little bit and the extension is to look at all of the hotspots and the people who are doing the worst and I just google them and said alright suppose you had diabetes and I google it this says people with diabetes

[28:50]

this says people with diabetes often have vitamin D deficiency and I said okay google black people I don't know what I googled it wasn't black people but I wanted to see if you're black do you have lower vitamin D you do because it takes more Sun if your skin or darker so all right that fits then I just went down the line old people less vitamin D overweight google it over way people have vitamin D deficiency you think the opposite right because if you're overweight you should be getting a lot of food must be some vitamin D in there somewhere but apparently being overweight is also a risk factor so anyway I wouldn't write down the line and you know how about smoggy City sure but the but the two that were standing out that's kind of weird were Spain and Italy and there was some thought that Italy is older could be that could be a

[29:50]

Italy is older could be that could be a factor but what about Spain Spain is pretty sunny right and I don't know if they have a special problem or I don't know if they're especially old but somebody who had been studying this vitamin D connection told me this let me say that I'm just reporting was somebody who looked into a sin so I can't tell you that this is absolutely true but the thought is this that in different parts of the world even if it's sunny you still can't get enough vitamin D because apparently the angle of the Sun toward your country has some big effect on you know the the good stuff getting through if you know what I mean so it's not enough that you just have son you need Sun at a certain angle and for a certain amount of time so apparently noon is the best time to get your Sun if you've got sunscreen on your face and it's the only thing uncovered and you go out in the Sun well it probably helps a little but you're

[30:52]

it probably helps a little but you're you know you're not getting what you need so I would recommend no doctors so if anybody wants to overrule me I'm just gonna make a common sense if I go outside and buy handed my hands are the only things exposed that feels like a bad plan because first of all I'd rather wear sunscreen this is where I'm gonna get mic if I'm gonna get skin cancer it's gonna be up here somewhere first because that's where the Sun is so I would recommend go out and dune with your shorts on put your face under a hat or in the shade put your legs out and I don't know about you but I can't remember the last time I got a sunburn on my legs I mean I I go I wear shorts all summer in California and I never played sunscreen in my legs and I barely even get hand and I'm out there all the time so there's something about legs don't burn very fast so if you're a guy maybe you take off your shirt for a few

[31:54]

maybe you take off your shirt for a few minutes so 15 minutes of the noon Sun anyway circling back to my point apparently both Spain and Italy where the the covet problem is pretty bad they actually have low vitamin D because of the angle of the Sun plenty of Sun but low vitamin D because they're not getting the right angle of Sun or so I'm told I would like you to fact check everything I say on this topic because I'm way out of my comfort zone of knowledge I'm just passing stuff along at whatever credibility you want to put on it all right here's another thing I found you know their prisons we're having this weird discovery of our prisons that something like 90% of some prisons have been exposed to the virus something like 90% yet yet the deaths is fairly low so why would prisons have plenty of you know 90% affected but also

[32:55]

plenty of you know 90% affected but also not much problem with the health-wise why would that be because men are more susceptible prisons the prisons were talking about her mostly male prisons african-americans more susceptible plenty of active african-americans in prison so and they don't get much Sun so wouldn't you expect that the prison situation would be really dire and instead it's the opposite well here's something I found out now first of all you have to you'd have to factor in the fact that people in prison tend to be that they don't have a lot of job stress they probably get plenty of rest and the other they work out and lift weights so they're youngish so there's probably lots of reasons are a little bit extra healthy anyway but here's what I found out
out prison meals are engineered makes sense right because for humanitarian reasons

[33:55]

right because for humanitarian reasons you can't give prisoners unhealthy food it would be cruel and unusual so it turns out and I didn't see this coming that the the class of people in America who have the best diets including supplementation for vitamin D specifically 600 whatever units are prison meals so prisoners actually have the best diet of anybody in the United States and part of the reason this are forced to eat it they don't have a choice and the government is forced to give them healthy food they don't have a choice either because somebody would complain right so they also have free health care yeah but the although free is a weird word for a prison situation

[34:56]

so could it be the vitamin D really is I don't know 80% of the answer apparently we can check for vitamin D sufficiency so there are it looks like there's home tests I don't know if you spin or take a finger prick or what you do but apparently there's some home tests where you can test your vitamin D level and here's the question I would ask you I'll just put this out here as we're deciding how to reopen and who can go to back to work and who has to hide how good a correlation would we find if we were to study all the people with vitamin D you know sufficiency and insufficiency would we discover that no matter who you are if your vitamin D level is good you could go back to work take me for example of a perfect example I have for Co more comorbidities I have four comorbidities a male I'm over 60

[36:02]

four comorbidities a male I'm over 60 I've got asthma and I'm talking about it in public which as you know makes the simulation target you to get coronavirus and kill you so if I hadn't mentioned this publicly I would only have three comorbidities but since I said it in public you know how this works right the the simulation is looking at me and saying did you talk about this in public because that's a comorbidity bastard we're gonna come for you if there's anybody who's gonna get a corona virus now it's gonna be the just talking about it in public too much because you're in the target list now so I think you'd agree for comorbidities but on the plus side I'm otherwise unusually fit and unusually healthy if you know all things considered I also am very dedicated to eating right and I am literally going outside every day and getting my 15 minutes of Sun now it's

[37:04]

getting my 15 minutes of Sun now it's California Sun song I hope it's a good guide but presumably given my light pigmentation and given my dedication to getting Sun every day and eating a healthy meal otherwise and I do eat fish so I probably get a little that way would I be likely to have a bad time with coronavirus for comorbidities including talking about it on the internet but what if my vitamin D is good tell me you're not curious about that find me the people with comorbidities if such a thing is this who also through I know the Sun or or supplementation also has good vitamin D do we have that information show me the high vitamin D people and apparently you can be too high as well there's some thought that that that there's a right amount of vitamin D you

[38:05]

there's a right amount of vitamin D you don't want too little but they're too much could actually cause your problems - not just directly but wouldn't be as good first for dealing with the coronavirus Elon Musk on Rogen I haven't watched that yet but I will they took asthma off the list I thought they did yeah you know I don't know if they did they intentionally take it off the list or did it quietly stop being on the list because I noted before that I was watching the list and it seemed to quietly be taken off the list is that what you saw as well because so I think there's still some question about it alright so there's my there's my challenge to the world instead of testing for coronavirus instead of testing for antibodies although those are all good things to test for it also could we cheaply and quickly test our own vitamin D levels

[39:05]

own vitamin D levels could we is that is that the fastest way to get back to work healthily check your vitamin D levels if you can get them back into a healthy range go back to work if you can't hide you know wait wait for the therapy is wait for the yeah then he convalescent blood therapy would probably be the smart one so that's I haven't seen anybody suggest that right has anybody suggested that we decide who goes back to work based on our vitamin D level I don't think I've heard anybody say that I'll just put it out there because it's very study Abal so it's it's a is vulnerable to data in other words you can get the data and you could probably get the data in a way that would be fairly reliable because there's so many examples and so much energy around it
yes somebody says their doctor warned them about too much vitamin D I am told and again don't take any medical advice from me that would be a bad idea so this

[40:07]

from me that would be a bad idea so this is not medical advice but I am told there is such thing as too much vitamin D so that the way you would most likely run into a problem is try to do it yourself yeah tried to do it without a doctor's advice and just like pumping a bunch of vitamin D into you because you're afraid would be bad medical technique bad medical technique all right in New York City 66% of the people who got the virus got it while socially isolating which would also suggest the staying indoors is not the best thing there's also a theory I just saw it on the Internet and again this is you know it's not like it's past some kind of you know rigorous scientific testing but given the nature of the virus there's a high likelihood that if you are in a shared shared ventilation area they are a greater risk so shared ventilation do you might see at a prison shared ventilation you might

[41:10]

at a prison shared ventilation you might see on a at a nursing home shared ventilation you might see on a cruise ship if so and in office buildings also so that might be one of the biggest risk factors because there is some sense that it's airborne so you know it may be it may actually live through the air conditioning anecdotally I know one person who got it by being in the same building but not having direct contact with in fact never even meeting a person who had confirmed a case of crota virus so somebody in this who shared a who shared a ventilation system with the neighbor downstairs I think got it without ever having any contact or even actually knowing then that neighbor existed now I suppose could have gotten into the elevator or you know the common male area or

[42:10]

you know the common male area or something I suppose that's possible but I put it out there as something that we need to know more about now once again it's another day of this stupidity it goes like this all the smart people say we need more testing why is our government so bad don't you know that everybody gets out of this with more testing look at those little countries doing so well with all their testing we need more testing all the smart people say that but the people who are smarter than the smart people have a little bit different take on it and it goes like this if we could do that much testing we'd already be doing it okay if you see a tweet or like a quote from Melinda Gates recently saying we should do more testing you know we're doing it wrong because we're not testing enough it

[43:13]

because we're not testing enough it makes my head explode because doesn't Melinda think the government didn't have that idea yet did does Melinda Gates think that Tony foul Chi and dr. Burks hadn't thought of that and they're like they're like looking at Twitter dr. Burks is like how they check my Twitter Melinda Gates whoa we need to do more testing whoa why didn't I think of that I've been working on this for so many years and more testing that's brilliant let's do that oh I'm so angry my head wants to explode and here's the problem the task force made the mistake of selling testing sufficiency under the context of having enough to open up in these phases but the enough testing to

[44:14]

these phases but the enough testing to open up in phases which the president and the task force repeats over and over and we have enough tests you can open up in phases according the guidelines you can meet the guidelines we have enough tests so the world interprets that as we have enough tests so wait a minute if we have enough tests and the smart people like Melinda Gates are saying we should test more well there must be just stupidity right we must just be stupid we have all these tests everybody smart says we should test more why don't we use all of our existing extra testing to do what works all the smart people say so and why didn't Tony foul - you ever think of doing more testing what is wrong with him and all the other experts they were waiting for this tweet from Melinda Gates to say we should do more testing and now they know here's what's

[45:15]

testing and now they know here's what's happening we do have I think this seems to be true that we have enough testing to open up in phases but that's a very limited testing it's you know doctor's orders and it's under certain conditions it's a tiny percent of the country it's not the kind of testing you do if you want to get rid of a virus look quickly you need to do massive testing drive-ins you got to do something more like South Korea etc if we could do that quickly do you think that we wouldn't be doing that seriously do you think there's any chance that if we could do a lot more testing then we wouldn't already be doing it it's obvious that the problem is we can't do it isn't it so he says Texas is doing it right Texas is doing one thing very right which is they're they're focusing their resources of the hot spots why other people were doing that uh we're at least

[46:17]

people were doing that uh we're at least not doing it as well I know that's for them to explain maybe they are and just Texas is doing a better job of explaining it but I have a suspicion that Texas is just doing a smarter it could be it's just that you know it's a very capable state they have a very capable governor they're they're very practical you know Texas Texas isn't gonna do anything as a state they're not going to do anything that's just politically correct there they're a little more practical about things so if they're not testing massively is because they can't they don't have enough tests and how long would it take to have enough tests to do that have you have you seen all the news reports about how long it would take based on everybody ramping up and let's say we even used the War Powers Act well whatever it takes the best-case scenario how long would it take the ramped up it would be sometime after the economy had crashed right so testing

[47:20]

economy had crashed right so testing unless somebody invents some new thing that could be scaled up it's just not a thing so all the smart people saying that we should do more testing just stop doing it what you should be saying is how could we make it possible to do more testing now one of the issues I don't know enough about but Balaji Srinivasan was saying this and he's far more informed about this whole area he suggests that one of the things holding back sufficient testing in this country is the FDA needs to approve the at-home kits now there might be a one that's approved maybe they need to approve more there might be more to the story that I don't understand but it could be that that's the breakthrough it could be that the breakthrough is is allowing the home testing and then letting the capitalism do what it does because if you said home testing will be legal beyond what's already approved I think at least one is approved but if you said okay they're

[48:21]

approved but if you said okay they're all approved you just have to you know show your numbers and be some standards or whatever what would you pay to do a home test if you can buy a home test right now and you didn't need doctor's approval and let's say you thought it was 99% reliable what would you pay right now with no symptoms so only the people who don't have any reason to think that they have it what would you pay
so I would say I would pay you know what's different because you know my income is higher but let's say I'd probably pay well in substance instead of saying what I'd pay because I'd be willing to overpay in this situation so that's not fair but let's say I had a normal job and I was a normal person it's hard for me to imagine that but I probably pay two

[49:23]

imagine that but I probably pay two hundred and fifty dollars and I might pay it four times a year just to test everyone so long so I think it's but anyway let's say you might pay you'd be you'd be willing to pay less maybe you would pay $25 or or hundred dollars so everybody's somebody says zero I like your attitude the ones who wouldn't pay would pay zero all right so I'm seeing some numbers come through 50 bucks five dollars 20 dollars 99 300 zero etc all right so here's my point if it were legal for more companies to make these at home testing kits I would imagine that capitalism would ramp up to do that pretty quickly because the the profit potential would be enormous so it could be that just as the president needs to remove some more red tape but I don't know enough about that situation or even if it would be safe to do that here are some good news Israel gets a FDA

[50:28]

some good news Israel gets a FDA approval for study of treatment of pleurisy M so it's a new experimental drug that Israelis gave to six critical patients who are the the ventilator types so is six patients who in the normal world you know maybe four or five of them would die so once you get to that advanced stage where you're on the ventilator your prognosis terms really bad really fast so if they put if they tested six people who are at that stage of really critical if the drug didn't work you'd expect something like three or four of them to die because that's just the at least you you might expect all six of them to die and that wouldn't even be unusual but I would say two to five dying is almost guaranteed if you gave them a drug that didn't do anything wouldn't you say six critically ill people now it's not big enough for a

[51:30]

people now it's not big enough for a proper you know a proper analysis but given that if you took any six people who are on ventilators for this they're not all going home ever right would you agree with that they're not all six going home that unfortunately that just doesn't happen but all six went home actually I'm exaggerating all six got off critical care in other words they improved enough then it looks like they're gonna come off ventilators and be fined six out of six six out of six what you know what are the statistical odds let's say everybody's telling the truth and there's nothing that we don't know statistically one of the odds they would get six out of six thousand to one or something pretty low now of course it's not enough to be comfortable you still have to do the tests who knows if there's some you know it might be

[52:30]

there's some you know it might be unhealthy in different ways it needs to be tested but it's pretty positive pretty positive I told you the other day I was giving in a debate online it was somebody who knows way more than I do about Epidemiology and biology and cetera a professor Bergstrom and he had made a claim that I challenged but I want to I want to now take his side and suggest a better way he could have persuaded me and it's this his claim was that that flattening the curve did not simply delay did not simply delay things but rather reduced the total number of people who would die and I said what's the logic for that because extending it by definition shouldn't change the area under the curve like what would be the mechanism that would change the area

[53:32]

mechanism that would change the area under the curve unless you had a vaccine or something and we don't see that happening maybe it's not anytime soon and so his argument he tried a few approaches and I just said I'm not getting that like I'm open to the argument but I'm not hearing it and it turns out that there there is support for the idea that flattening the curve does reduce the total number of people who get it and now I'm going to improve that argument and it goes like this if you if you let the the virus go unchecked and has that big you know that big infection bump of them then tails off that would be similar to driving a car at 100 miles an hour and then hitting the brakes if you're driving a hundred miles an hour and you hit the brakes you might overshoot where you wanted to stop because you can't stop that quickly in 100 miles an hour and so the the virus unchecked it's going to overshoot

[54:33]

virus unchecked it's going to overshoot the mark of herd immunity because it's just so fast and even though you know your town might reach herd immunity you know people are still traveling and stuff so you know we just want just overshoots whereas if you are traveling 20 miles an hour which would be a flattened curve and you're getting close to herd immunity you can gently apply the brakes and sort of hint herd immunity now analogies are not persuasive in and of themselves but they're really good for explaining a concept that you haven't heard before or thought of in that way so I would say that it is more persuasive because I am convinced that there is science behind the concept that flattening the curve could actually save lives now that assumption is based on different viruses so I would throw this caution into the conversation that if you have a virus

[55:35]

conversation that if you have a virus that has a super high asymptomatic number and also a super long incubation period I don't know if the flattening the curve works the same in that case because it seems to be and this has been my argument that if ninety percent of the people in jail got the corona virus there's nothing you can do to stop it so my argument was you're gonna get to hurt immunity no matter what well you can do everything you want I'm hearing people say that there's some company there are some countries that are successfully driving the infection rate to zero to which I say that's not a thing unless they're also buttoning up the border because it doesn't matter if they drive to zero as long as somebody else didn't it's coming back yeah maybe slowly maybe quickly but there's no such thing as an individual company or country driving it

[56:35]

individual company or country driving it to zero and still having an airport right so I'm seeing magical thinking about people who think we can drive it to zero in this country that's not a thing I'm seeing magical thinking that we could never have enough tests at least in the next several months when things are critical to test our way to do anything useful so those are just magical thinking's but I do think there is something to the flattening of the curve could don't know if it works with this virus because of that long incubation period but could lower the number of people dead but I don't think we have time to wait for it anyway so my favorite Twitter economist Joshua Gans made the statement that a quick way to calculate whether was worth worth it to affect the to damage the economy to save

[57:36]

affect the to damage the economy to save X number of lives that the numbers you would look at was he estimated I think 500 billion a quarter and lost GDP so that that's why you look at okay we'll lose 500 billion a quarter but we can save X tens of thousands of lives potentially a million maybe maybe two million based on the high numbers here was my response and I'm not especially good at this so somebody who is smarter check my numbers okay because I was trying to calculate the part that was missing which is how many people died if you damage the economy now keep in mind if we were to go back to work today I don't think the economy is mortally wounded if we go back today if we go back at the end of may I also don't think the economy is mortally wounded and I would still look for a good 2021 but if we really tried to

[58:39]

good 2021 but if we really tried to drive infections down to something close to zero I think you're talking about August right and in August I'm no longer confident that I can tell you that we can revive the economy the same way we could if we do if we started now I mean there might be a permanent effect we could get behind China our military spending might be impossible we could them you know lower we could be less safe in a million ways it's my way I look for I look for an estimate of how many people extra died in poverty and I got an estimate from some website who knows how credible it is who knows how incredible anything is but there was one estimate over in Great Britain that you'd have 500 at the high end so this is the high end about 500 extra deaths for every hundred thousand people impoverished so if you impoverished an extra hundred thousand people 500 of them are likely to die that wouldn't so let's let's work that

[59:39]

that wouldn't so let's let's work that through let's say that we wait too long to revive the economy and it causes 50 million citizens to be impoverished in a way that they would not have otherwise is that too high 50 million well everything depends on how long will we wait right at some point it would be 50 million I don't know if that happens in June or but at some point 50 million people would be impoverished 50 million people impoverished at 500 extra deaths per 100,000 check my math would be 250,000 extra debt per year just from the poverty but keep in mind poverty is not it doesn't end in the calendar year if you've got that much poverty if if 50 million people are suddenly impoverished that doesn't fix itself in a year so let's say four years so let's say four years of a quarter million people dying

[1:00:40]

years of a quarter million people dying extra from poverty that's a million people so I would say that the risk of say waiting till the end of the summer and again nobody knows everything's got instincts based on who knows what so there's no science and what I'm going to say next it's my judgment based on living on this earth as long as I have then if we were to wait to say the end of the summer we would probably put it you know a quarter of a million to a million people at risk but if we were to go back to work with full full semi mitigation semi mitigation dr. drew you missed all the good doctor stuff just joining you left you have to check out the early stuff and find out if I send everything wrong I'm Way over my skis on this dr. drew I'm Way over my skis so I need I need you to pull me back into the you know into the place where cartoonist should be bond anyway the poverty alone

[1:01:45]

should be bond anyway the poverty alone could kill a million people if we wait too long to redo you know to revive the economy and how many people would you expect to die from the virus if we phase back to work the way the federal government said or some version of that the states are violating the the guidelines but they you know they get to choose right it's up to the states to violate the guidelines how many how many we like to are likely to die extra if we you know just put a like a glass wall around the nursing homes we protect the you know the most vulnerable the elderly we're not going to go back to work anyway you know they don't work really some portion of them and what if we just you know wore our masks did our distancing you know close the streets in front of restaurants baby paws the big events you know the Stadium events for till the end of the year until we know what's what but if we did all of that that snuff

[1:02:45]

but if we did all of that that snuff would we lose 250,000 people because I don't think so I don't think so but again I can't calculate it so anyway I I would just summarize this that I do buy the argument and I did not before because I haven't heard the reason now that I've heard the reason I accept that there's some scientific or at least logical backing for the idea that flattening the curve could actually reduce the total number of people who ever died because when you flatten it you you have less risk of overshooting herd immunity so let's say herd immunity was 60% of the public having it if you let it go free you goes home right past that and you know maybe stops at 70 percent your see you got your herd immunity but that's a lot of people who got into effect that that didn't need to be if you slow it with flattening the

[1:03:46]

be if you slow it with flattening the curve you might be able to inch up unheard immunity maybe hit it more gently don't overshoot it but you've got to calculate the economic hit for weighting that law so that's what I think I will give you a better review of the plague of corruption movie when the actual full-length movie is available or if I dig into the book so my current feeling is that is not credible as presented the other side so nothing is credible until I hear the other side but I'll keep watching it well I'll keep it I'm not gonna dismiss it yet so I'm gonna give it its due of credit because the people involved this dr. Judy Mike Ovitz she has credentials if she did not have credentials I'd probably just blow it off but she does have exactly the right credentials so although I'm not

[1:04:49]

credentials so although I'm not convinced I have not heard the full story and I'll listen to the parts I am less likely to believe are anybody else's interpretation of the inner intentions of strangers that's where it gets dicey so we'll see somebody says can we understood I don't think you could undershoot by flattening the curve because flattening it doesn't stop it so just take as long as it took but you'd hit herd immunity
all right so mary says is pointing out that I think she's not credible but Christina says she is so maybe it's sexism that makes me think she's not credible you may have missed the first part of the periscope where I addressed that Christina listened to it and I

[1:05:50]

that Christina listened to it and I watched it and my my sense of credibility was about her vibe and her physicality just there was something about it that was raising a flag but it couldn't be it could be Saxon because how would I know the whole point of bias is that you're the one who doesn't know right Carol it out I'm just I'm guarding against it and I don't think it is but I'm not the person who can rule it out it doesn't work that way all right that's enough for now
Oh Grinnell had dropped off a few more files to bar somebody says
did I recognize it as a persuasion technique the plague of corruption movies as a persuasion technique well only not a special one not in terms of using the tools of hypnosis or anything exotic but only in the sense that is a credible person telling a story so if

[1:06:50]

credible person telling a story so if you've got a credible person telling the story it's persuasive that's it's obviously persuasive but I didn't see I didn't see anything that I would call technique that goes beyond the obvious all right that's it for now and I will talk to you tonight