Episode 960 Scott Adams: Fake News, Bad Math, Bad Mind-Reading, Bad Behavior in the News

Date: 2020-05-07 | Duration: 56:34

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: Is the record unambiguous…it was a coup attempt? Mind-readers confirm, Schiff is panicked Tim Graham’s visual writing style Ahmaud Arbery shooting The Plandemic video

If you would like to enjoy this same content plus bonus content from Scott Adams, including micro-lessons on lots of useful topics to build your talent stack, please see scottadams.locals.com for full access to that secret treasure.

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## Transcript

[0:11]

hey everybody come on in it's time for coffee with scott adams the best time of the day hey jack good to see you this morning good to see all of you is that marla thanks for the super art i appreciate it and i know many of you are already prepared some of you such as joel is jogging on the beach right now and cannot join us for the simultaneous sip but many of you are prepared and all you need is
a copper margarita glass of tanker jealous or sign a canteen jugger flyscape vessel of any kind filling with your favorite liquid i like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything better including the damn pandemic it's called the simultaneous sip
sip happens right now go

[1:12]

happens right now go i feel the fake news fading away the veil is lifted from my eyes yeah
so let's talk about a few things so as you know the drug around desevere has uh reportedly shown some promise in reducing um virus but there's no report or no evidence that it reduces death rate but we're still pretty darn excited about this drug that doesn't change the death rate but i wonder how much would this drug cost well that estimate i saw i don't know if this is still the case would be a thousand dollars per patient so a thousand dollars for rem deserver you know i wonder if that's enough money that it would just potentially corrupt the system is that is that much a thousand dollars per customer

[2:14]

thousand dollars per customer times all the people who would need a vaccination 7.6 billion people in the world but you don't need to vaccinate them all let's say i don't know let's say you do 4 billion let's say you vaccinate 4 billion how much profit well not profit but how much gross revenue is that if you vaccinate four billion people at a thousand dollars a piece
well let me do the math for you or actually allow me to have someone do the math for me
me alexa what is four billion times a thousand four billion is four trillion dollars 4 trillion dollars has there ever been any product or any

[3:14]

has there ever been any product or any company that ever sold one thing and made four trillion dollars
in the first year now if you were on the brink of making four trillion dollars oh yes thank you it's not a vaccine but one assumes that many people would take it if it works so it's not a vaccine that's correct um so could we worry that maybe our i don't know science could be influenced by
by four trillion dollars and somebody says well bill gates is just an angel right i'm blocking you for being an idiot all right i'm just gonna block all the people who think that bill gates is the devil because i i've reached the end of that stupidity if you're so stupid that you

[4:15]

if you're so stupid that you think bill gates is in it for the money please don't follow me please i don't know what you know i can't read bill gates's mind but he's not in it for the money i'm gonna block anybody who suggests that you just aren't smart enough to follow any of this if you think that's the case all right sorry uh in the news on fox news it says that uh
uh schiff is panicked he's panicked about the transcripts so the interviews the interviews about the uh so-called russia collusion situation that turned out to be nothing the now the interview transcripts are available i guess they've been around for a while but now they're talking about releasing them and adam schiff has decided uh maybe not maybe not release them because apparently what they show very clearly is that the fbi knew there was no basis for going after carter page

[5:16]

after carter page because the steele dossier was the basis and they already knew it was debunked so apparently the uh the record is unambiguous then it was a coup attempt now it doesn't say that but what would you call it when people are trying to use non-legal means to remove a sitting president i don't know what else you call it but that's what happened anyway so um as jake novak pointed out on twitter that i always call out when the left mind reads and they they act like they know it's in trump's mind or they know it's in anybody's mind and so it would be fair to call it out when it happens on the other side and let me do that as jake pointed out we don't know if chef is panicked what kind of reporting is that unless schiff says he's panicked

[6:18]

unless schiff says he's panicked or we hooked him up to an ekg or something so we could find out that he's panicked what basis do we report the shift is panicked ridiculous now a reasonable person could say well he would be concerned about this yeah yeah but i mean they all play a pretty high risk kind of a game i don't think there's evidence they panicked so let's not say that
here's some here's some for you usually you're going to see more and more articles about how the economy is the worst since the 1930s you know the worst since the great depression oh this is all ridiculous it's all ridiculous here's what didn't happen in the great depression 60 of the public making money because i think that's what just happened i think 40 percent of us and i'm in the category of people who got hit bad by the coronavirus my income will probably drop

[7:20]

coronavirus my income will probably drop 90 percent this year but you know i'm not asking for sympathy i'm just telling you a fact probably 40 of us took a hit but there's a good solid 60 percent who made money that didn't happen in the depression all the people who made money still want to spend it and they've got more than they had before when we go back to work so all these comparisons to the depression where basically the entire world went down it's so inappropriate if 60 of the people made money 40 lost that really speaks to a quick recovery now the the real wild card is whether people will go back into stores and restaurants and stuff that's going to be pretty iffy for a while but certainly buying products they got the money and they want to buy them all right um can you believe that in this most basic question the experts still don't agree which is is it safe for kids to go back

[8:22]

which is is it safe for kids to go back to school you can you can add this question to the long list of very basic seemingly basic questions that our best experts don't know got it wrong or they disagree what the hell good are our experts i mean this is a pretty basic question is it safe for kids to go back so some people say well kids don't get it they probably don't spread it much it's a low risk go ahead send them back there's some other study that says that that causes spread of course it would who's right i don't know i guess we can't ask the experts because they disagree
i tweeted out an article on advertising on the internet and i wondered how many people already knew this so in the comments tell me if you knew this did you know that advertising is not real that it doesn't work how many of you knew that because we live in a world that's you

[9:23]

because we live in a world that's you know driven by advertisement all of our media the internet it's all advertising based but did you know it's all i i'm going to modify all so i'm going to say mostly and then i'll go back to some special cases where it's not yeah some of you did here's how i find i found out the way i found out that advertising isn't even a real thing is i advertised you should try it sometime whatever your product is or you can even just try this as an experiment try advertising anything it won't make any difference i've advertised restaurants i've done radio print i've done every kind of advertising that you could do didn't make one dime of difference likewise for startups etc done advertising didn't make any difference now the exception is if there's something that somebody doesn't know exists but they know they have a need for it

[10:24]

but they know they have a need for it then you're telling them about it for the first time if you tell somebody about something for the first time and they want it then it can work of course but they're not necessarily going to find it with a search engine that's harder so the kind of advertisement that doesn't work is brand advertisement especially and the
the the article that i tweeted around this morning gives a perfect example of that it talked about somebody who understood statistics and stuff coming into this world and thinking to himself am i crazy because it looks like none of this was real and yet everybody's pretending it's real and that our giant platforms all depend on selling it to people who think it's real and this guy said well why do you think it's real and they would say well look we ran this ad
ad let's say it was ebay because he used them for an example we ran an ad for ebay and then you look at all the people who clicked on the ad and then you can tell that they bought a

[11:26]

and then you can tell that they bought a bunch of stuff it's obvious we run an ad people click on it then they buy and the economist says how many of those people we're going to buy anyway and they say well you know we don't know but they they click the ad and then they bought so the ads work and so the economist said why don't we try this experiment because the ad that people are clicking on shows up in the search uh directly above the organic search the one nobody paid for
for if you were searching for ebay by name you typed in ebay the thing that comes up at the top is the advertisement that takes you to ebay the one right below it that didn't cost you a dime is the organic search and also takes you to ebay and now what do people click they click the one on the top so the economist said why don't we try this

[12:26]

this why don't we try picking some regions of the country and not advertising on those and just see if it compares so they did that what do you think the answer was the advertising made no difference so so ebay was paying 20 whatever a million dollars a year for these ads and and in one day in a very easy test he showed that they had no value and but the his other examples of people who seem to know that advertising doesn't work but they they still do it and you say to yourself okay i'm confused are you telling me that everybody knows it doesn't work but they still do it what exactly is behind that and he explained it in a way that i already understood as the you know as the creator of dilbert and having spent a lot of time in big companies and done a lot of advertising myself i knew the answer to this but it was funny watching him

[13:27]

funny watching him sort of discover it and it goes like this the marketing department in your big company isn't just marketing externally they're also marketing themselves and what the marketing department in your big company wants is the biggest possible budget because that makes them more important it's good for their careers they want to manage the biggest possible thing so when they go into their senior management do they say advertisement doesn't work no they say you need the biggest advertisement budget you could possibly get
get and then they get that and then the boss is going to ask them did it work and what are they going to do they're going to show them how many people clicked on the advertisement and how much they bought and they're going to say look at all that extra stuff people bought and it's all it's all not real now somebody says i'm seeing a lot of people mention my pillow my pillow is a special case

[14:29]

my pillow my pillow is a special case and i'll tell you why number one did you know there was such a thing as an improved pillow so it's the it's the perfect example of something that can be advertised because you didn't know it existed right i thought a pillow was a pillow but there's a better one oh okay now once you know it exists then your next question should be but scott i know it exists now that i know it exists what good is the extra advertising well here's what good it is mike lindell is not like an average advertiser what he does is so darn persuasive that you can't compare it to a written ad on the internet all right listening to him do his real thing and over and over again and showing you examples and hear the people using it and here's my graph and you know and his funny stories and stuff in a way he's selling himself wouldn't you say mike lindell is sort of selling himself

[15:31]

mike lindell is sort of selling himself and you didn't know you needed him did you so that's the part you weren't looking for were you looking to find mike lindell no you weren't but you did so now you've found him and he's you know he gives his uh made in america stuff uh and people like him so you like mike lindell and you say well i can always use a better pillow and then suddenly that works so in the special cases that's that can tell you why the normal cases don't work all right so if you just put a little print ad on google you know buy my stuff you're not mike lindell they don't know you they don't care about you they didn't fall in love with you
you they weren't interested in your story about how you came from nothing they don't care if it's built in america none of that's there but if you can go full michael and dell yeah i would think in his case advertising works all right but

[16:33]

all right but yeah so the reason is the internal marketing departments are lying to their management because it's good for their careers and then then they give the management these fake numbers to say it works and then what does the ceo ceo do with that suppose the ceo doesn't believe it suppose the ceo says you know they would have bought this much anyway i don't think you did anything would the ceo say that or would the ceo say
say as all ceos do well it looks under under my management we went up this much it's because of all the good things we did
did our marketing's firing on all cylinders our products are good no the ceo is going to take it because it makes the ceo look like you know mix the ceo looked like they did their job as well so it's this weird little fiction that companies run the advertising works and again it does work in the special cases but i'm talking about the general cases

[17:33]

but i'm talking about the general cases all right
keep that in mind when you're looking at stories such as the number of test kits that will be available you know i told you no everybody's lying about that all the companies are lying because why wouldn't they of course they would lie
there was a great line written by tim graham who wrote on the fox news site and i'm only i'm only going to repeat this because i loved the way he put the sentences together all right so just enjoy this for the writing it's not even any bigger point than that he says a press conference for trump has the feel of diving into a tank of hungry sharks a press conference for hillary clinton or joe biden carries the vibe of getting free pizza and game tokens at chuck e cheese

[18:35]

biden's virtual press conference april 2nd only lasted 20 minutes and he jabbered for seven minutes before he took his first question uh blah blah blah so here's what i loved about it the it has the vibe of getting free pizza and game tokens at chuck e cheese you know i've told you before that we're visual people so this is such visual writing you know uh
uh a trump um trump event feels like uh jumping into a tank tank of hungry sharks like you can see it right you can almost see the press conference you can sort of see him jumping into the shark tank it's like so visual and then just the same thing about it's like getting pizza and game tokens at chuck e cheese because you get the pizza you see it you've got the game tokens you see it and then there's the chuck e cheese you see it and then you build the story in your head it's brilliant writing it's really good and then the second part they read uh he uses the word jabbard he jabbered for seven minutes now of

[19:36]

he jabbered for seven minutes now of course this is you know highly uh uh highly biased political writing but you know it's on fox news you expect that in the opinion pieces on both cnn and fox you know if it's an opinion it's an opinion so you can say jabbard but jabbard is a great word jabbard because you don't have to you don't have to defend jabbard you can just say it happened and people go well he sounds like he was jabron you don't have to give any examples of what a jabbering is
is all right um so i had an experience yesterday of talking to someone who shall remain nameless but let's say it's someone who knows a lot about the world so uh somebody who's really well educated about how things work right so i'm not talking to a dumb person so keep in your mind smart smart

[20:38]

so keep in your mind smart smart super accomplished person
supports biden and we got into a little conversation about that about supporting biden he's he's a he's a big anti-trumper and i was curious about why anybody could do that like what's what's the thinking and and i had predicted on twitter maybe a week or so ago that we would hear more and more tortured explanations of why anybody would support joe when it's obvious his mental health is declining i mean it's really obvious right and here was the first cognitive dissonance example or it's true so you get to decide so my judgment of it is or it looks a little cognitive doesn't it see no it's not devel you're not going to guess who it is it's not somebody i've mentioned before so if it's if you're guessing somebody that you i've talked about just forget it you're not going to guess

[21:39]

just forget it you're not going to guess it doesn't matter anyway um and war or is the following thing objectively true so you decide does this sound like crazy talk which would be a tell for cognitive dissonance or is it a perfectly reasonable statement here it is
joe biden is actually smart and capable when you talk to him in person it's just that when he does things in public uh he's sort of lost the step so he can't keep up you know in a public venue he can't really keep up anymore but there's no problem because if you talk to him in person he's perfectly fine brain's all there everything's working trump on the other hand goes the story that he might look like he can function in public you know at least to his supporters i mean it looks like he understands the topics and

[22:40]

understands the topics and has a full control of things you know i mean he's always trump but it looks like he does have a full full control of his faculties and he's operating at a high level in public but the story goes that in private it's completely different so one version of what's going on here is that joe biden is this unique character who's smart privately but only recently he's become uh incompetent in public but you shouldn't worry about that too much because he's fine personally he's fine whereas trump and here's a weird coincidence what are the odds that trump would be the opposite and that trump would be perfectly functional in public if you don't count what the fake media says he's saying you know if you believe he suggested drinking bleach well then you think he's not competent but of course that didn't happen that's just what the media said he said

[23:40]

that's just what the media said he said so if you ignore what the media said he said and just look at what he says perfectly reasonable but behind closed doors not so much now you know as you know i spent a little bit of time talking to the president in a personal conversation i did not detect anything wrong with his brain all right so i have you know only this much experience and we weren't talking about any kind of you know businessy or policy things so there wasn't anything complicated about it
it but i feel like i would have detected a problem you know we talked about enough things a broad enough palette of things that i would have picked up i'm sure i would have picked up a little problem if there was one i didn't see anything i didn't see anything i even questioned as like why do you say that or nothing like that perfectly ordinary functional person like most of us so look for further stories

[24:42]

so look for further stories about the explanation of why people are okay with biden and at least people are saying directly yeah we think maybe he did do that thing with tara reid we don't like it but boy we really don't like trump so in other words they're throwing their principles to the side to get a better result i got into this discussion with a professor of biology
on epidemiology now if you've been following along with my periscopes for a while you you probably already know where this is going to head right so i had a little bit of i won't call it disagreement i was confused at what carl bergstrom was saying on twitter seems like a real uh well-informed smart guy
guy uh and he was doing a real good job of explaining stuff he was explaining specifically that the

[25:43]

he was explaining specifically that the purpose behind flattening the curve and his point was that the purpose is not just to keep people out of the hospitals which is important but then also by flattening the curve you would in the end infect fewer people and you know of course i of course raised my hand on twitter and say okay but doesn't what you said doesn't support that because i was just looking at his thread and his graphs and i said it doesn't support that what you're what you what you so far presented simply says it would be spread out but i don't see the argument for why it would ever be less in the long run we would still reach herd immunity one way or another and he we had a few iterations and i and i still said but i'm not seeing any kind of description of what would cause the the flattened graph ever to drop off because if it doesn't drop off

[26:43]

drop off then it just keeps going flat until you get to the same amount as if it had been a peak right now i'm just asking from the point of ignorance i'm not i'm not yet disagreeing with anything i'm trying to understand so yeah i guess he was doing something else today besides talking to me so he said that he had to had to run so we didn't quite finish this but he did leave me with this provocative thought which which could be true so let's say there's a good chance that what he's saying might be true and here's the argument still missing some some reasons in it but at least here it is that if you do the unmitigated peak and you just let it peak that you will get to herd immunity same as if you know say this these are my worst nights same as if you had a flattened curve that would just take longer but if you let the peak happen you will

[27:44]

but if you let the peak happen you will go
go past herd immunity in other words if you creep up to herd immunity maybe you can sort of hit it wherever that number is 60 percent of people having it but if you don't creep up on it you're going to overshoot the mark because it'll just be so vicious that just too many people get it before herd immunity even gets to be a thing to which i said okay uh i will accept that people say that but i still don't see why and then i and then i ask this question which is still hanging out there i haven't got an answer i said i can see why that might be a thing with a quick killing fast-moving virus if it's moving fast and it's killing people fast i could see how that would make sense that having a spike could get you past herd immunity and then you know too many people died but i said with the coronavirus since you can be asymptomatic for you

[28:46]

since you can be asymptomatic for you know a week or two wouldn't even if you got all the infections in the united states to zero all it would take is one traveler to come in and my town would be infected before anybody even got a test so i said in the in the very specific case of the coronavirus where you can be asymptomatic for a long time
how do you you know how do you ever not get to the same herd immunity but um there could be something to this thought that if you get to it quickly and uh you know just all at once you can shoot past it but i've not i've not yet seen the the argument for it but there's a punch line to all this uh and here's the punch line so after a few of my ignorant non-scientist questions
professor bergstrom left me with this thought he said scott it's entirely possible

[29:49]

he said scott it's entirely possible that thousands of infectious disease epidemiologists are mistaken or lying or maybe your intuitions are wrong so he sets it up as is my ignorant cartoonist intuition
which he says hey could be right and maybe thousands of infectious disease epidemiologists who agree with him maybe they're all wrong which i thought was a pretty good line under normal circumstances right good line right here's what i said i said well it wouldn't be the first time this year i was more right about this virus than nearly every health professional in the world it would be the third time because it would be it would be the third time my intuition was better than uh what'd he say thousands of infectious disease epidemiologists yes yes my intuition was

[30:51]

epidemiologists yes yes my intuition was better in public than thousands of epidemiologists i i told you the masks would help when they said it wouldn't fact-check me if i'm wrong and now they all agree with me i told you that we should shut the airports on january 24th when the experts said not yet who was right my instinct or um thousands of infectious disease epidemiologists and the answer is my instinct so professor bergstrom is uh he seems well informed and smart and i hope he gets back to me because i think he has something there i just think that he had some maybe some assumptions that he may have assumed other people assumed and so i was a little bit in the dark about that but i appreciate him working with me i just think it's funny that even at this point

[31:52]

funny that even at this point people would still doubt my intuition over their thousands of experts what's wrong with them i say all right um uh let's see so remember i taught you how to spot fake news and one of the ways that you do it is you look for a story that's a little too perfect because it fits a political narrative and then secondly fake news is when you uh you think you can read minds okay so it turns out we have this uh story about uh ahmood arbury a young african-american guy 25 uh ex-military i think he was he was uh the story is i'll just say the story is because i wasn't there that he was just jogging in a brunswick georgia neighborhood and that there were two
two uh and this is this is twitter's explanation two white supremacists uh chased him

[32:52]

two white supremacists uh chased him down and shot him now i have many comments about this number one uh he the story from the people did the shooting is that he looked like somebody who had been uh burglarizing some homes that they'd seen on a video from before and they were just trying to talk to him and he was running away and there was sort they wanted to talk to him but they had guns and if you look at the video there's a video of the actual event i don't know if people see the video differently but what i saw was the i saw uh arbory attacking the guy with a gun i did not see the guy with the gun shoot first or attack uh the other guy the the the the person who died i only saw the person who died attack the person with the gun and run right at him and not let go while the guy with the gun had the gun in his chest like the the gun was actually pointed at the

[33:53]

the gun was actually pointed at the guy's torso while the guy was still fighting with the guy now
i'm no hand-to-hand expert i have not you know battled expert i have never been in the military but i don't know if somebody's pointing a gun at me and they just want to ask me a question i'm not going to try to take that gun out of their hands because i would be afraid i would be shocked now i think i have to insert at this point of the story to keep me employed and out of jail and stuff i'll have to insert this this will be the part that people take out when they take me out of context later i doubt there was a good reason to shoot this man meaning a situation was created that probably didn't need to get created so i'm not forgiving anybody i would say however it is not an evidence that these two people who did the the uh alleged crime were white supremacists i don't think that's an evidence

[34:53]

that's an evidence and if they were white supremacists which i haven't seen any evidence of that um that doesn't seem to be the motive for this because there was no part of it where they would have said you know there's a white guy jogging and we saw this white guy in the video and we think this white guy has robbed our neighborhood several times do you think they would not have tried to stop the white guy i mean that's the assumption right that if everything was different now everything was the same except the young man had been a a white guy do we assume that these two people with the guns would not have tried to stop him if they had recognized him on the video or i thought they saw him i don't know that he was actually on the video so there's no evidence of a racial motive and there's plenty of evidence that it wasn't so of course on twitter that's that makes them white supremacist and uh

[35:54]

that makes them white supremacist and uh it was it lebron james says that african americans are quote literally hunted every day every time they go outside would somebody get with lebron james and teach him what the word literally means because i mean i could be wrong fact-check me on this if we have some african-american viewers on periscope would you say it's literally true that you're hunted every day every time you go outside are you hunted feels extreme i mean i get the point and and i certainly think that if i were african-american i might be arguing it's the same way they are you know because a lot of these arguments are about power and safety and you know it's not really about the specific situation you know people are trying to generalize a specific situation to get some political gain if i were african-american and i thought you know

[36:55]

you know you know i think i'd like to improve my situation i might use it this way you know if i thought well it's not exactly in evidence but i can spin it this way and maybe something good comes out of this
the weirdest part of the story that the simulation has served up is that the people who did the shooting suspected this young man of robbery and his last name is arbory
one of the odds that somebody whose last name is arbory would be accused of robbery i don't know i suppose anything's possible okay but i like to think it's the simulation working on code reuse even though that's probably not what's going on um so the st that lindsey graham was saying that the the steele dossier just completely completely lays bare i'm sorry he said

[37:56]

completely lays bare i'm sorry he said that the steele dossier was decred discredited before rose rosenstein um even said to investigate carter page and with that now documented so we don't have to wonder about who said what or you know when when it was said and lindsey graham says basically it's just plain that now that there was a uh a plot to get rid of the president i don't even know how to process this are you having the same are you having the same uh mental problem that i am which is apparently you know law enforcement and you know the fbi did actually try to remove a legally elected president under with uh you know uh inappropriate means how is that not just blowing our mind and the only thing we're talking about now part of it is the coronavirus of

[38:56]

now part of it is the coronavirus of course and part of it is it took so long to get here that we got sort of exhausted by the story so so i think we got exhausted by the story before we found out how bad it was and now we can't generate the outrage that you know you would you would get if it was the second week of the story imagine finding out one month into the story about the russia collusion just fantasize with me imagine in one month you had found out everything it took us two years or whatever to find out
we'd be calling for the execution of comey and some of the others wouldn't we i mean actually the execution would we not
not because what is what is the uh what is the crime for trying to overthrow the country or i i don't even know is is that is that treason it's treason if you're helping your enemies but suppose you're just doing it for your own purposes what exactly is the penalty for that

[40:00]

what exactly is the penalty for that you know there might be penalties for not doing your job right and the details of you know maybe you violated somebody's rights and stuff so there could be some legal recourse of the details but what about the big picture is there no big picture where an actual coup was attempted what but but it's not treason exactly is it
it alexa define treason
as the offensive acting to overthrow his government or to harm or kill itself for more oh okay yeah treason pets i i was thinking that treason was more helping an enemy but according to that definition it just has to do with trying to overthrow your own government so did they try to overthrow their own government i think so if you found out let me ask this um just hypothetically if you found out

[41:04]

that this was treason and that it could be demonstrated i don't know what the actual penalty in this country is for that would you favor the death penalty for the people involved so that would be comey rosenstein i don't know mccabe you so so make the assumption that the legal system does its thing and let's say they found that they did in fact try to overthrow the government let's say that that was demonstrated in a court of law
is that a life sentence 30 years execution capital offense i don't know because i can't think of a bigger problem you know what what would be more of a crime than that um would a terrorist act be more of a crime than that i don't know it's a pretty big crime feels like the biggest crime i've ever seen maybe that's not actually violent

[42:05]

that's not actually violent so i just put that out there hey if there's any companies that are looking for
for kn 95 basks and some other protective equipment and you're you're you're lost in the the wilderness of all these pirate and scam organizations who are trying to sell you things and not delivering um check my twitter feed for tweet by tom
tom sauer s a u r um who has uh located a number of supplies that he can deliver so if you're a corporation and you want to let's say get some kn 95 best for your staff you could buy them in big big bunches from him i'm only mentioning him because there are so many frauds out there and since tom is well known on at least at least a conservative twitter knows tom well a lot of you who are watching this follow him on on twitter so he's a real person doing a real thing military ex-military so i feel you could trust him to be

[43:06]

so i feel you could trust him to be straight on the transaction which is the hardest thing to trust right now all right um
i watched the pandemic video because so many of you asked me to now if you don't know what that is there's a video going around that it looks like a an interview that might be a setup or publicity for something that's a full-length movie that i haven't seen so i watched the interview part not the movie and plandemic i guess is the movie and here's my bottom line on the video it looks it's mostly as far as i can tell this is just my initial opinion it looks like conspiracy theory to me all right but it does look like a number of the facts in it are probably true almost almost certainly true so i'm not saying the facts are all untrue but there's a way that they're tied together and some assumptions and some mind reading

[44:06]

mind reading that turns it into a bigger conspiracy the
the the net of it is it looks like this that fauci is actually some kind of a bad guy and that um he is associated with an organization that um they've funded the wuhan lab and and uh a year or more ago he warned that there would definitely be a coronavirus and how did he know and by the way he's got some patents for some vaccines or something and there's patents on things he might profit from them if he can get you know his vaccine or his company with a therapeutic to do it so there's this whole thing that fauci uh i don't know somehow he might have been behind the the virus and so that's the conspiracy crazy parts the less crazy part about that is that the
the pharmaceutical industry could be corrupting things and lying and trying to make four trillion dollars so there's

[45:07]

there's uh i did not find any credibility in the person who was interviewed the principal character there i would say that she had every let's see based on experience i'm going to say that people who look and act like her in my experience have some issues that go beyond the facts of this situation so i didn't find her credible but in the same breath here's something else i didn't find credible at one point that the fbi tried to overthrow the government of the united states when i first heard that i just thought come on people is there anything you won't believe yeah the fbi tried to overthrow the government you bunch of ignorant what we have documents we have memos

[46:08]

we have documents we have memos we've got handwritten notes it's all true apparently it's all true it's all true now the part i doubted early on primarily was the the level of coordination you know was there was it like a ring leader and everybody was sort of working for the ringleader because that's the way it was sort of portrayed in the beginning i don't see evidence of that yet i do i do so evidence that lots of people have the same motive and thoughts and maybe they acted in a way that any one of them would have acted if they'd been in that situation but it's a little different than an organized plot but not they're not much because it's not like they didn't all know each other have the same goals probably talk to each other you know you know people signed off on the same stuff so you can't rule out the fact that it was kind of organized i'm just saying that that's not an evidence based on the documents so i didn't believe that because that

[47:08]

so i didn't believe that because that seemed just way too wild i mean just way beyond the you know the pale of likelihood but turns out it's true turns out it's true so are the claims made in the planned uh pandemic video and interview are they true doesn't look like it to me you know if i had to put my own money on it i'd say ah there are two facts in there but the way you've woven it together no that's just misleading that's what i'd bet on but i also would have bet the fbi was not trying to remove a legally legally elected president i would have been wrong about that so i like to remind you when i'm right but it's also just as useful to remind you when i'm wrong and i would say that even though i you know i could make an argument that i cheated a little bit about how organized it was i would have to say overall that i was just wrong on that one so

[48:09]

one so count that one on my incorrect predictions all right i think that was everything i wanted to talk about just checking my notes yes it is that's it
it that's all i had did president obama know well that would certainly make things interesting wouldn't it wouldn't that be interesting um here's my
my best guess on that now even though all these people were professionals and you you would think that they would be smart enough not to write stuff down right wouldn't they be smart enough not to write down the things that are going to get them you know in jail or whatever but i have to think that obama was never that dumb you know my my impression of obama you can you know love him or hate him for his policies or whatever i don't care but i don't know that anybody has questioned

[49:10]

i don't know that anybody has questioned his intelligence to me always seemed like a really smart guy so would a really smart guy leave any kind of a trail of this kind of activity i don't think so
so i think that if he was involved it would have been verbal and probably only with you know one person who we knew he could trust that's how i'd play it if i were trying to overthrow the government i would not leave a any kind of a record of it so i know a lot of you are saying you know probably he did i would have to go if i'm going to put a let's say a percentage on it the odds that well here's here's the problem though we know that the fbi knew that they were doing something sketchy what we don't know is if that was ever transmitted to obama we do know

[50:11]

you know that he was the boss but we don't know that if when they gave a status report to obama did they say you know i know you want this guy out of here so what we're doing is we're gonna we're gonna pretend that carter page has something maybe we can find something we'll dig around i don't know that they ever told them that it feels like something you don't tell the president because you don't want him to know right so i would guess that obama will never be
be it as a co-conspiracy so let me put a odds on it i would say the odds that he actually knew that something just blatantly illegal was happening one of the odds he knew something illegal was happening ah then you'd have to define knowing did he know because he just sort of knew or did he know because they told them i think knowing because they told him probably didn't happen knowing because he
he you know he's experienced and he just knew maybe 70 70

[51:13]

maybe 70 70 chance something like that yeah i'll give you a 70 chance that obama knew will you be satisfied with that i know some of you 100 uh elon musk is on rogan really and it's dropping at 9am somebody says well that would be interesting somebody says he knew but he looked the other way yeah we would never be able to prove something like that
uh lisa page was quoted as saying somebody's saying in the comments here quote potus wants to know everything we are doing well him wanting to know everything you're doing and you deciding to tell him that you're doing something illegal are very different things so i don't doubt that the president wanted to know i do doubt that they told him everything

[52:13]

somebody points out that watergate started without direct knowledge by nixon good example so i think in general you would find that your presidents are smart enough to not commit things to writing here's here's something that i have a hypothesis that nobody like trump could ever have uh have ever made it to the presidency if he had ever used email
that's my statement that trump would never be our president if he had a habit of using email all of his life there's just no way because sooner or later those emails would come out and god knows what would be in them my understanding is that trump made a a career-long practice to not write stuff down now how well did that pay off really well i mean not writing stuff down is a pretty solid solid strategy if you don't want somebody coming after you

[53:14]

somebody coming after you uh somebody's asking about kim jong-un's body double all right so you know that i've called i've called on the the video of kim jong-un and on the photo as well now that doesn't mean i'm right all right so i like to always deal in probability um my but i'm going to go with the prediction that kim is either let's say degraded or dead probably not dead more likely degraded because i think we'd know if he was dead uh but we wouldn't necessarily know if you were in a coma here is my evidence in case you didn't hear before just prior to the video being shown the president was acting like he definitely knew what the situation was and he was wishing kim well but then right after that kim is chipper walking around visiting the fertilizer plant did that happen did that happen and then the president president just immediately said oh it's great to see

[54:16]

immediately said oh it's great to see you know happy is doing well i don't know so either the president had bad information or he had correct information and he knows this video is fake but he's trying to help them get away with it because maybe it's just better for everybody for the short term of course videos can be faked to me it looked like a video that was spliced together for maybe a prior trip or something and then the still photograph just looked photoshopped to me now experts have looked at the photo that i say clearly looks photoshopped and people who know way more than i do about that stuff don't see it and a lot of people are convinced the video is true because they see it with your own eyes but we're not in a world where videos can be true so here's my further prediction it's going to be a long time before you see kim in public again now i don't know what his normal pattern is in terms of how long he would normally

[55:18]

in terms of how long he would normally go before he's seen in public again but here's my prediction the length of time that he has not seen in public will reach a new high coming up in other words if you don't see him just pop up again in a month those are fake videos six months from now
now if you've seen no new videos of kim those were fake videos if in one month he pops up and he's looking fine then i'm gonna i'll revise and i'll say oh wow i guess i was fooled those were probably real videos i mean they could have still been faked but more likely they'd be real if a month from now he's up and walking around and it's obvious it's a current video maybe he's shaking hands with somebody we know is over there you know if it's current and it's in a month then i'm definitely wrong
six months from now if we still haven't seen him on video i'm right

[56:19]

on video i'm right so we wait now we wait all right
that's all i got for now and i will talk to you