Episode 943 Scott Adams: Join the Best Coffee With Scott Adams of All Time. There Will Be Anger

Date: 2020-04-29 | Duration: 1:05:26

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: People who think nobody has thought of doing increased testing Airline changes for coronavirus safety Removing inaccurate claims from the internet…who decides? Jay Rosen’s belief that President Trump’s briefing spreads misinfo Whiteboard: Flatten How?

If you would like my channel to have a wider audience and higher production quality, please donate via my startup (Whenhub.com) at this link: https://interface.my/ScottAdamsSays

> [!note] Rough Transcript
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## Transcript

[0:13]

hey everybody come on in come on it's time for another episode of coffee with Scott Adams today will be the best one ever hmm best one of all time some people accused me of hyperbole but I think those people are so wrong about everything all the time yeah there will be whiteboard I'm saving it for the end because it's sort of a big finish well you know if you would like to get in here early like the early birds you get a little extra something that the people who come in late don't get it's called the simultaneous sip and all you need is a cup or Margaret glass a tankard chalice or stein McGinty and rubber flask a vessel if any come fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee then join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine for the day the thing that makes everything including the pandemic better it's called the simultaneous if it happens now go mmm a

[1:30]

little bit later I'll be tweeting about moving some of my content to the locals platform have you heard it locals calm local with an S in the end locals it's Dave Reubens platform in which creators such as myself who do not like to be captives of the algorithm can put their materials and you don't have to worry about the algorithm hiding it and you don't have to worry about getting about me getting cancelled and you don't have to worry about me getting censored you can also send me messages and you can support me so I'm going to ask people who were putting me on patreon do you just stop doing that and if they want to keep keep supporting me to do it on the locals platform I'll Google something about that a little bit later so you know where the links are and everything just because I know you're wondering I know

[2:32]

because I know you're wondering I know you're wondering it won't have any effect on the periscope so sorry I didn't mean to worry you so the periscopes will be just the same you can watch them here just like always but in addition in addition to me putting them later on YouTube and I also put them on rock fan and bid shoot I think at this point I will also be putting them on locals but locals will have also extra stuff so you can get all of my normal periscopes of normal way but if you want extra stuff you'll know where to get it and if you want to support me as a creator that's the place to do it alright I'll tell you more about that later bill de blasio mayor of New York City now I have to admit because I don't live in New York City I have a hard time getting interested in a mayor a mayor of anything yeah any kind of mayor just

[3:33]

anything yeah any kind of mayor just doesn't interest me usually and people on at least TV shows pundits and stuff have been calling de Blasio dumb and I thought to myself well is he I mean really I mean he made it to be mayor of New York City ran for president he's not dumb right and then the news comes out that he decided to tweet to I don't know if he tweeted or announced it he was singling out the Jewish community for for potential you know harsher treatment for not self isolating as well I guess it was some of funeral and too many people got together and de Blasio got mad about that and I thought to myself okay okay it can be it could be true that these people caused a little bit of danger by getting together so it can be true then maybe they shouldn't have done

[4:35]

true then maybe they shouldn't have done what they did at the same time it might not have been the best play from a political standpoint to single out the Jews for special law enforcement treatment how do you think that went over now if you think that the Jewish community said huh looks like we're being singled out for special law enforcement treatment do you think that the Jewish community said that's okay what's the worst thing that could happen no no didn't go that way it went exactly the way you think you were good but the funny part is de Blasio didn't see that coming there was nobody who warned it hey hey hey Bill um I know just give this another thought I know you're mad right now but maybe just rest this until the morning maybe write it down and before

[5:38]

morning maybe write it down and before he hit Send maybe just read it out loud maybe read it out loud to somebody just to get a second opinion I don't think that happened which is hilarious to me now I don't think this story has any real legs because obviously de Blasio is not anti-semitic I don't think there's you know nobody really thinks that it was just sort of inelegant and it's always worth I always think it's worth the brush back you know if you're Jewish you're not gonna let that go right and I think that that's appropriate so but I would say it's just a brush back nothing of real consequence in the long run the Center for Disease Control the CDC indicates that the current average u.s. overall death rate even during the corona virus pandemic is lower than it has been for

[6:38]

pandemic is lower than it has been for the past seven years and well below the long-term average so we're experiencing an unusually low rate of death in the United States who predicted that no I should I shouldn't say who predicted that because it sounds like I'm saying the World Health Organization predicted it but they deduct I did so I'm still predicting I'm gonna stick with my prediction as I like to do even when they're apparently going to be wrong because I like to call out when I got it wrong as well as what I got it right because the whole point is we're tracking our predictions right you so I do it in public if I get it right I'll brag about it so you don't you so you don't forget about it you'll get mad but you won't forget it and if I get wrong I will make a big deal about that too because I think that's equally important certainly I make no claim that my predictions will all be right I hope nobody thinks that right does anybody

[7:40]

nobody thinks that right does anybody think that I think my predictions will all be correct because that would be crazy nobody thinks that I mean no matter no matter what you think yourself you couldn't possibly think your predictions are all gonna be right so we'll keep an eye on that you know my old joke about the cat is on the roof you know that it's from a joke the cat is on the roof is sort of a way to tell you that there's not trouble yet but there's trouble coming I'm just softening you up for the bad news it's coming because from the joke the cat is on the roof is somebody is softening the message that the cat died so they're they're trying to break it to you slowly Alyssa Milano tweets yesterday I think or day before she says I'm aware of the new developments in terror reads accusations against Joe Biden a war terror like every other survivor to have the space to be heard and seen without

[8:41]

the space to be heard and seen without being used as fodder I hear and see you Terra hashtagged me too and of course you know Alyssa Milano got tons of grief for being a strong backer of Joe Biden but also being a strong backer of me to which are hard to be it's hard to be on the same team as both of them because of Joe's credible sounding accusations of me talking and I feel like the cat's on the roof don't you because when by then loses Alyssa Milano and of course he's not saying that she's not saying that but that's what I'm interpreting because I don't think she would even bother making this statement unless the cat was on the roof if you know what I mean yeah maybe in her own mind you know since I can't read your mind let me make sure that I'm not interpreting her thoughts but I'm saying that if you're trying to read the breadcrumbs the this is sort of a tiptoe

[9:43]

breadcrumbs the this is sort of a tiptoe in the direction of yeah we should listen to her should we should definitely listen to her and maybe in a month or so you'll hear you'll see Melissa Alyssa Alyssa you might see her say you know I was just with Joe Biden and I think he said he's got the flu or something I feel like Biden is gonna have to fake a health problem to get out of this way I don't know how else you do it the speaking of that did you watch the the so called town hall which was really a digital interview split-screen at least part of it was between Joe Biden and then he was being endorsed by Hillary Clinton so it's a split screen with Hillary and Joe Biden now the first thing which is obvious is if if you're accused of me doing do you want Hillary Clinton to be in your split-screen endorsing you I don't know it's a it's a bad Association so yeah I don't think

[10:44]

bad Association so yeah I don't think you won by the Association at least in terms of the the me to stuff I'm seeing in the comments that a number of people thought that Joe Biden fell asleep odd wall while Clinton was talking I didn't see that meaning I looked at it it didn't look like you fell asleep to me it's funny it's funny big you could imagine he was falling asleep but didn't look like that to me so so I would call that fake news if he thought he actually fell asleep but it looked it looked enough like it then it was funny but I think that's all it was but what was far funnier is I don't know who did it but somebody you know the meme I think carpi donkey dunk them did most of these where you see Joe Biden he's been photoshopped into other pictures these he's behind somebody's sniffing their hair well the the best version of that yet was a screenshot from the

[11:45]

that yet was a screenshot from the split-screen with Biden on one side and Hillary on the other and that and the side that normally would that Biden was empty it was just the background and he and he was photoshopped into the Hillary the Hillman tree picture yeah sniffing her hair from behind I didn't I didn't think that meme could get funnier because when it first came out and you saw the memes of you know Biden peeking out from behind people every one of them was funny I think I laughed at every single one of them but you think okay you know now we've we've seen them all you can't take that any further there's no place that could go it's really just the same thing you know it's just biden smelling air and then you see the empty frame I'm the digital townhall that was really funny so somebody needs to tell me who did that because I'd like to give him a call out because that little extra of the fact that it was you know magically he magically disappeared on video and appeared in her video that's really good

[12:47]

appeared in her video that's really good that is good me making that is so we've got to call that out so I've said before that the most worthless people and the coronavirus situation are the people who act as though nobody thought of increasing testing have you seen these people they're like the NPC's of the coronavirus they don't have any thoughts that you just say what do you think of the coronavirus well we should increase testing yeah that's something nobody thought of speaking of which Elizabeth Warren says in her tweet once again if we're only testing people with symptoms who make it to the hospital that we are far from understanding this crisis and then she gives us a helpful advice keep in mind this was yesterday yesterday she goes we need to drastically ramp up testing what

[13:49]

need to drastically ramp up testing what we do it's the first time I've heard of this why where has she been this whole time did you know that increasing testing would help who knew my god we should elect this woman president immediately because she's come up with this out-of-the-box idea of increasing testing and I love that she says it in public like nobody freakin thought of it nobody thought of it come on Elizabeth Warren are you trying to be the most useless person in the United States because you're succeeding all right speaking of that Biden town hall with Hillary one of the one of the interesting things about watching all the famous people broadcast from home the way I am right now is that they're having a tough time with their hair and makeup have you noticed that I just watched a clip from Chris Chris Cuomo show it

[14:54]

clip from Chris Chris Cuomo show it looks like Chris Cuomo is giving himself a haircut dude it didn't go well I hate to be unkind about people's and appearance except when it's funny so and I could say this about Cuomo because he's a he's an unusually good-looking guy all right so you can't take that away from he's a good-looking guy but whoever cut his hair I could it's all I can look at I was looking at a clip for some other purpose because I was interested in the topic now I didn't know what the topic was I just looking at his hair it was like how do you even do that like if you had a contest to ruin somebody's hair I guess it would look like that that would be the winner so hope so he looked he just looks at Rochas the other thing is that the people who don't know how to do you know online stuff so so the one thing you'll see is the people who are too close and and they're fish-eyed yeah there's something with the lens that's that makes them look distorted so

[15:56]

that makes them look distorted so they're way up close by the way that's something I learned the hard way from input from you guys whatever what I first was doing that the periscopes I would disturbingly do this because I thought to myself well obviously don't you want me to like fill the screen with my face of course you do and then I looked at my face I said hmm I think we can improve on that better better better better nailed it yeah distances your friends let's take that to the bank if you don't have a professional makeup artist go with distance make sure your background looks looks a little interesting all right anyway I was going to say that Hillary Uther had really bad makeup or the room was too warm or she asked coronavirus or

[16:59]

was too warm or she asked coronavirus or she was having a hot flash I'm not making fun of that I'm just saying that I'm saying that health-wise I mean I I know that I this seems like I'm just regurgitating the same rumor from when she was running for him office but she didn't look well she looked flushed did anybody see that Scott his right camera needs to be even with the face yeah and then and that's the other thing is you need to this needs to be on the same plane but most of the TV people are doing this they're doing this view and they're looking down it's just terrible so anyway a lot there's a lot going on today all right so here's an idea for you just just Mull this a little bit so we've got all these airlines it doesn't look like they have a business model

[18:00]

look like they have a business model because nobody wants to be on an airplane packed in little seats next to people who might be infected so let me throw out this suggestion suppose you removed all the middle rows from coach so let's say coach has no middle middle seats well of course now you've lost a third of your income right so could the airline's find a way to make back a third of their income if they get rid of the home all the middle seats so that people have some separation and the answer is I'm just speaking for myself but I would definitely pay 20% more than the normal tickets cost for a coach to have a seat that isn't next to somebody else to have a little room and I would pay that coronavirus or not and wouldn't you pay 20% extra now keep in mind you're paying 20% extra but so is the person on the other side of the aisle right so you if you've got two people who are willing to

[19:00]

you've got two people who are willing to pay 20% extra then you're you're at least you're getting close to the 30% that you lost now throw on top of that the fuel is really cheap right fuel is historically cheap now throw on top of that that a third if your human cargo has gone include yet including your so your cargo load goes down by a third so if your cargo goat load goes down by a third that won't reduce your fuel by third because you know the plane has weight as well but if you were to add up a little 20% extra ticket cost on each side of the of the missing aisle and then the savings from fuel somebody's saying oh my G with a oMG with a little eyes looking up
and somebody says they're already empty they're already empty in the middle of

[20:01]

they're already empty in the middle of the middle row well you wouldn't necessarily have to remove them I mean you don't have to physically remove them although that would be cool somebody says you're rich well that is correct you are a correct do you know who flies not poor people poor people don't fly if you go to the airport you won't see any and you know I'm not saying it's good or bad I'm just saying poor people don't fly so probably the people who fly I would say represent the top 60% of income maybe in the country I would guess that if you're in the lower 40% of income it's just off the top of my head probably if you're in the lower 40% of income in the United States you'll literally never fly in an airplane I'm guessing you know fact-checked me on that but I'll bet that's close to true now that doesn't mean you wouldn't fly once in a while if you had to you know it's just a death in

[21:02]

you had to you know it's just a death in the family or something well at the bottom 40% of income just don't ever fly so could the top let's say the top half of people who fly could they afford 20% extra on a coach ticket most good most good and who knows if they have to even increase that much it could be that the reduction in fuel costs is so much that you don't have to increase the ticket costs maybe only 10% would even know the difference let me ask you this given that given that flight costs are all over the map you know you can buy a ticket today and then the price tomorrow drops by $200 nobody even knows what a ticket is supposed to cost right does anybody even know if you paid 10% too much for your your ticket would even though because what are you're getting compared to so first of all you wouldn't even know if they raised it all right

[22:04]

they raised it all right there is a something called the epidemiological model sometime at about the time that this crisis is over I'll be able to pronounce that on the first try
try but we're not there yet so it's a different model for predicting the deaths and this this model has been updated and the current best prediction and I think this prediction takes into account that going back to work so the loosening of the social social distancing and their model says the predicting that there will be a total of 150 3,000 deaths in the United States with a predicted range of from 87 thousand to three hundred and two thousand so the current updated model and this is a model that's used in 40 countries so has some credibility with model people doesn't have any credibility with me of course but but it has credibility with model people I

[23:05]

has credibility with model people I guess so what would happen let me ask you this so a few weeks ago I asked people who were saying that the corona virus is no big problem I asked them what would be the number of deaths gross not net what would be the total number of people that were identified as dying from corona virus that would make you change your mind after the fact so at the moment you skeptic think that the corona virus is not that much bigger deal than the regular flu what would it take for you to say I guess I was wrong that is bigger than the regular flu what's that number it's somewhere around 200,000 I think most people would come in at about that range right if it's over 200,000 yeah maybe that was a bigger deal now that doesn't mean that's different from saying that we should have handled it the way we handled it that we shouldn't open up the places that don't have much of a problem I'm

[24:06]

that don't have much of a problem I'm not making any kind of argument about whether you should open up or how I'm just saying that if it comes in at 200,000 people died because we opened up it still might be the right choice but it'll be interesting to watch these models converge now the total number of dead might be negative or zero because of all the fewer people dying from other purposes and even the irregular flu I guess came in that the the lowest death rate in a while all right what happens if this model is correct let's say comes in to 87,000 deaths would you then say that the yeah I think that would be wrong than 87,000 because that would be with without mitigation yeah well that's just a wait and see all right so you've you've heard me talking about these two doctors the Erickson and IC and the

[25:06]

doctors the Erickson and IC and the viral video the YouTube took down because they said it wasn't accurate and there were two medical boards who rebuked these people and the back story which you've already heard I'm gonna give you an update so it's not the same story Verdi heard but the back story is that people asked me before this was debunked by medical people to give my opinion on it and I looked at five minutes of it and says complete horseshit it's it's not credible there's a whole bunch of math mistakes there's comparison mistakes there's lack of knowledge it's just completely worthless so that was my hot take having no medical training whatsoever within the day that was completely backed up by medical professionals who said well these guys are not even doing the math right and basically the same thing I said to just it was reckless so here's the interesting part at the same time that tarkir carlson was showing the video as valid and something that we

[26:10]

video as valid and something that we should listen to at the same time over at MSNBC I'm Chris Hayes show they were debunking so literally you could see the two movies on you know on different screens it's the same screen but you have to change the channel and literally at the same time the same news was reported as true on one and completely debunked at the other somebody says show your work don't have to don't have to show my work because all the medical professionals have debunked it and I would defer to them so you can ask them to show their work but and let me let me take a page from my book loser think now when people said to me Scott you're saying that this is all BS but you're not giving us any examples and I talk about that in my

[27:11]

examples and I talk about that in my book you should never fall for the trap of arguing all the examples all right it's better to pick the best one and you just say can can you send your champion instead of having our armies battle does there a whole bunch of different points and you don't want to get into them arguing every one of them why don't you pick your best champion and I'll have my best champion fight and we'll decide it that way now best champion in this context means what is the strongest argument that you think the doctors made just pick out one point and I'll tell you why it's wrong or I'll agree with it and say yeah but we already knew that so there's a whole bunch of stuff they said that falls into the category of we already knew that which is it's bad for the economy to stay closed we already knew that some people might die because the economy is shut down mMmmm that's not new we kind of knew that so if

[28:13]

not new we kind of knew that so if anybody wants to debate me don't just tell me any specific claim and then I'll tell you what I think of it the main claim of course is that he had done his own samples and then he said based on my samples I predict that this is true about the country and that's just crazy because his sample was not in any way representative and nobody imagines that it could be so it all sort of started with that and if you you know if you take that error and then you worked from there everything else was nonsense which is what it was now I guess Tucker also talked about the fact that this video was taken now which which creates a whole new interesting topic because separate from the question of whether it was accurate do you remove inaccurate claims from the internet and who gets to decide who gets to decide what is inaccurate enough at what point is it a violation of free speech and at

[29:15]

is it a violation of free speech and at what point is it just good common sense that you don't want a bunch of conspiracy theories mucking up things during a crisis well of course the the standard we all compared to is yelling fire in a crowded theater or the you know the most classic comparison and I heard people argue that you know data should always be allowed on the internet because you always have the opportunity for the commenters to say it's not true so you can get the claim and you can get the counterclaim and then the reader can make up their own mind to which I said yelling fire in a crowded theater is also data that's what it is it is somebody who stands up in a crowded theater and has information to give the rest of the people in the theater could be right it might actually be a fire it could be incorrect maybe there is no fire but you see it doesn't matter because if the if the point is that you

[30:19]

because if the if the point is that you should always just present the data and let people decide would it matter if there's no fire it's just information so the point is that there is information that can kill people and we do make very rare very rare exceptions because the yelling fire in a movie theater is less about transmitting data and more about immediately causing a panic that gets a bunch of people killed so that's the most immediate obvious clear danger that's why that example is so good is it the same in a coronavirus emergency that you put information out that people might take is true might act upon it and what would that cause well in this case it could cause oh I don't know the collapse of civilization the death of hundreds and billions of people that's the downside right if you get the coronavirus thing wrong the downside is one hundred one hundred

[31:19]

the downside is one hundred one hundred million people die whatever it is so it's pretty big stakes speaking of that Jay Rosen who I believe is a journalism professor somewhere a group of group oh and he tweets that a group of professors including him have written an open letter to the heads of ABC CBS NBC at Mississippi CC and then put it petitioning for an end to live coverage of the president's briefings and the reason given is because the president's briefings in in his opinion spread misinformation now number one is that true is it true that the president's briefing spreads misinformation totally true right totally true it's totally true that some of the information that comes from the president is is wrong later gets corrected but how unusual is that in a

[32:20]

corrected but how unusual is that in a pandemic given that nearly a hundred percent of our information is wrong in the earliest ages almost all of it and yet we expect our politicians to tell us what they know and keep us up to date even if it's wrong just tell us why you know you know we'll understand if it's wrong but tell us why you think you know keep us informed so under those conditions would it be reasonable to expect that any president would be giving only accurate information and my my answer is no no it's not it's not reasonable to expect it would all be accurate but is there some line beyond which you say okay we know it's normal to have some inaccuracies but is there some line that gets Krauss that's just crazy talk and I would say that light has not been crossed in my opinion because this is just subjective right but I've watched most of the president's briefings and

[33:22]

most of the president's briefings and I'm pretty sure that when Jay Rosen is talking about you know dangerous and reckless information he's really talking about what the press does not what the president does because was it the president who suggested in public that that maybe we should think about or consider injecting Clorox and Lysol into our bodies with a hypodermic needle did the president suggest that no he did not know that fake news came from the news that came from ABC News CBS News NBC News MSNBC CNN and as of today Fox News Fox News has an article we'll talk about that in a minute which also claims without any context given that the President of the United States suggested I don't think the use were suggested but wondered aloud according to even Fox News today there's

[34:24]

according to even Fox News today there's an article today on the Fox News site saying that the that the president talked about injecting disinfectants with no context given what is the reader of that article going to think disinfectants means well they're going to think it means Clorox and Lysol that's the fake news the real news is that the context he was talked about was UV light which is a disinfectant and is inserted into the body in a variety of ways can go through a vein can go down your trachea can go into your lungs but in each case is injected it's a disinfectant it's what the president was talking about it's real it's being tested the cedars-sinai there are commercial products already built around it that disinfect hospitals using the same technology and this guy Jay Rosen thinks that the president should not be allowed to talk because the following entities completely misinterpreted I don't know I

[35:26]

completely misinterpreted I don't know I don't even know who was willful but they completely got the wrong information who got the wrong information ABC News CBS News NBC News MSNBC CNN and Fox News do you know who got that story right Breitbart Breitbart got it right all right so it's obvious that you can get it right you know on Fox Fox channel Fox News Channel if you watch the five they got a right they knew the context they talked about the context so it's not like you can't get it right it's not like this is hard to get right this is easy to get right it's really easy and so you know this Jay Rosen thing this is just a violation of free speech and it's based on a complete misinterpretation of what's happening because the fake news is

[36:27]

happening because the fake news is coming not just from the president yes he's it's in facts that don't match the fact-checking true but there's the worst parts of it the reckless parts the parts that are actually dangerous lately they're coming from the press they're not coming from the president but they both have some stuff to explain all right and if we were to ban organizations who give us fake news that's also reckless would you have to also ban the Surgeon General of the United States because he told us masks don't work how about the World Health Organization who is information is pretty much all all right should the World Health Organization be banned from reporting except the report that they said silly stuff maybe I don't know here's an idea that I was thinking about and it turns out that others are

[37:28]

about and it turns out that others are thinking about it too I was planning on talking about it maybe it's just obvious but the Belgian government is considering allowing people deform what they call social bubbles of you know 10 people or so meaning that rather than having a full end to social isolation if you could identify 10 people that could be friends and family whatever combination and you just agreed to mostly hang around with that 10 people that you would get a little extra freedom to which I say you know in the short run I'm willing to listen to anything in an emergency willing to listen to anything but I don't know if this will work that's the reason I didn't talk about it I like I like the thinking behind it but I don't think it's practical let me explain to you how a normal family would manage this idea hey normal family family let's say two kids two adults two kids and they hear

[38:29]

kids two adults two kids and they hear that they they can form a pod of of 10 there's four people in the family and they can only be in a pod that has a maximum of 10 now those of you who have been parents gained this out it's a disaster isn't it it's a disaster band Scott for being a sociopathic liar some reasons I'm glad that the Chinese have decided to join us I'm not done with China by the way oh oh I'm not done with China there's more coming on that so yeah the way it would go in any normal family is that the kids would say all right great so I'll have my my friend Brittany and my friend Bob and and you know they can bring their two friends and then the parents say um no because that would max out our whole 10 with just one kid because you know we adults won't have a few of our friends and it just becomes this big shootout in the family so I

[39:30]

this big shootout in the family so I think this social bubble idea well it's well intentioned and one could imagine that there would be some situations especially with young people where it works yeah if you're single it's probably a pretty good deal if you could find 10 people who only want to hang out with each other but for families this would be a nightmare trying to negotiate them I would like to I would like to correct a framing of something which snuck up on me so as you know I like to pro about my successful predictions especially when the experts have predicted otherwise and you've heard all the examples but just you mentioned quickly when there was a Cuban sonic weapon story and I said no that's not true and there was the the masks don't work and I said now that's not true and there was the the video of the doctors that I just talked about and I

[40:30]

doctors that I just talked about and I said that's all and quite reasonably and these are just a few examples of which there are many many of them you already know so you've seen quite a few examples in which I have taken the opposite side of experts have you not so let's first establish that on many occasions you've seen me take the opposite side from experts and the the consensus of experts and you've seen that that's worked out extraordinarily well for me the whiteboards coming out to somebody else about that it's worked out really well and I've had weird success going against the experts and then being right it includes in my personal life too because in my personal life I you know found a solution for my my incurable voice problem when my doctors couldn't and I tracked down the one place in the world I could get it fixed so I have a long track record from childhood on in which I have gone

[41:32]

childhood on in which I have gone against experts and it works out way more than half the time way more than half closer to 90% I would guess and I can't even think of any time it didn't work out but I'll say 90% just because there must have been times it didn't but here's the framing that I think everybody gets wrong and that's completely my fault because I've never framed it correctly so let me do that now all right allow me to do that now the framing of this incorrect is a that I allowed to spontaneously pop up because of the poor way I talked about it and that frame was that I'm against the experts and that and that naturally makes you think Scott how much medical training do you have none how much legal training do you have none I know you majored in economics but did you get a Nobel Prize like the person

[42:32]

you get a Nobel Prize like the person that you're criticizing no I did not how about your technical expertise did you get that at MIT no I did not so that's the wrong frame and I let that I let that happen so that's all on me all right so I'm taking full responsibility here's the frame I should have presented from the from the start I'm an experts I'm an expert but I'm a special kind of expert because of my studies of persuasion etc because of my experience which is fairly broad in terms of my talent stack I've been in a lot of places seen a lot of things from finance do you name it and my my claim is this that my pattern recognition for is better than the the layperson in other words I do claim expertise but not on the topics I'm

[43:35]

expertise but not on the topics I'm talking about I don't claim medical expertise I don't even claim financial expertise and I could probably I mean I could buddy I don't even claim that I claim that I have a special skill and other people do too I'm not the one person who can do this but there there are people who have similar skills that I do who can detect from other experts and I should have always framed it that way because when I was looking at the doctors I was not saying to myself Oh doctors you got it wrong this is what you should prescribe because that would be me being an expert I didn't say I could be a better expert than the doctors I was just saying I'm listening to him and my filter is going my filters just going crazy I mean I don't think I've ever had you know more flashing lights for than I did when I was looking at those doctors now here's the interesting part there's a book called blink by Malcolm Gladwell and he talks

[44:38]

blink by Malcolm Gladwell and he talks about the fact I don't know if this has been debunked but it makes a good story anyway he talks about the fact that experts make decisions before they know why and the example given is that an art expert can often identify a fake you know painting by the Masters but it's a fake one they can usually identify it right away but they don't know why in other words the answer comes first and then they have to say um and the reason it's a fake is because and then they think about and like I don't know maybe it's because of the brush broke over here it looks different or or he never you know he was born before the iPhones no that's a bad example so they couldn't be at iPhone so they got the table anyway the experts know is something's wrong before they know why I would argue that I have that same sensation so when I looked at the doctors I knew it was before I knew why and that's part of the reason that when people said give me the

[45:40]

reason that when people said give me the reasons I was doing I can give you a reason but it's sort of an after-the-fact reason is me it's me like the art expert saying okay I already told you is but now I guess I got to give you a reason of why mmm well I guess it's that brushstroke thing right there so you should judge me that way so the way I would like to be judged is not that I'm an expert or pretending to be an expert because I'm not an overruling experts I'm simply my own expert and identifying
that's it likewise when I look at climate change I'm not a scientist but I can tell that the odds that the scientists got the the temperature part right that there's something happening with co2 and temperature I can't guarantee that's right but if I had to look at the pattern of my life and the odds and how many ways they looked at it and measured it and

[46:41]

they looked at it and measured it and how long they've been correcting it I would say they're probably probably right on the temperature part but not the models to say that the prediction models are accurate is just crazy there there's no such thing as that they might tell you that there's something you should think about and they do but they don't tell you what the temperature is going to be in the 80 years that's not a thing so my my filter on climate change says can't be sure about the temperature part more likely true than not but it doesn't mean that we're doomed because that's that's in the models that part's ridiculous could be doomed maybe not doomed but using those models to determine it is ridiculous in my opinion alright because in large part because they can't predict human achievement and human ingenuity and then he changes that happen you know which which climate models predicted that the pandemic would remove pollution in three

[47:43]

pandemic would remove pollution in three months yeah it's not going to make a difference in the long run but there's so many things that the model can consider all right funniest political story of the day is a former Democratic Georgia gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams is embarassingly campaigning to get the vice-president nomination for Biden and she recently said she totally believes Joe Biden's denial totally believes Joe Biden that that me too thing didn't happen and I thought to myself whoever gets the nomination is gonna have to say that aren't they think about that whoever gets the nomination is going to have to say what Stacey Abrams said they're not going to be able to get away with its unproven they're not going to be able to get away with you know she should be heard they're not going to be get able to get away with you know women should be believed let's look into it there's not going to

[48:45]

let's look into it there's not going to be able to get away with it was a long time ago you know let's not dredge up the past there's just nothing they can get away with the vice presidential candidate will have to look in the camera a whole bunch of times and say I believe Joe Biden didn't do that how is anybody gonna do that really that was anybody gonna do that even even Alyssa Milano who it was clearly as in Joe Biden's camp as you could be I mean she said it publicly issues and Torsten she's she's hugged him in public she tweets about him all the time and even she can't go all the way to say I believe Joe Biden is telling the truth even she won't do that all right but the vice presidential candidates gonna have to do it and I think that Stacey Abrams I have to give her a credit because um I've consistently under I guess under

[49:48]

consistently under I guess under appreciated her talent because I haven't seen much of her so I didn't know what kind of talent she has or not I don't think she's necessarily a great persuader but look at how close she is to being president of the United States for somebody you know for somebody who somebody says Stacey Abrams did that already did one already is there an update to this but what's funny well the whole thing is funny but what's funny is that Stacey Abrams is closer to becoming president of the United States than all the people who didn't do this so all the people who are not willing to blatantly lie about this are not really in the running for Vice President they're not and given that Biden himself might not last and given that President Trump you have to assume he's I'm at least a little bit of shaky territory

[50:49]

least a little bit of shaky territory because the coronavirus this stacey abrams by this you know bald-faced lie is it a bold-faced lie or a bald-faced lie I never get that right but this is clearly a lie Stacey Abrams you know I don't think you have to be a mind reader to know that the most you could know is that you don't know what happened that's the most you could say but to say you believe Joe Biden well that's just a lie that's just a lie right I mean do we agree I know I'm not I always warn you against mind-reading but in this case this one sort of simple simple right I guess we can't rule out the possibility that she's the most gullible person in the United States as possible can't rule it out all right remember I always tell you that I've often complimented Mike Pence not for being a force of nature like the

[51:49]

not for being a force of nature like the president but rather for being for not making errors and the president and the vice president has violated that that pattern so he go the vice president goes to the Mayo Clinic and he's the only person who doesn't wear a mask and he'd been told to wear a mask and I thought to myself that is so Mike Pence because really Mike Pence is all about not making unforced errors and that was just an unforced error now I don't think it's important you know it doesn't rank up there and the things that are gonna move the election but it has to be called out because he's so consistent at not making that kind of error just is worth noting Hillary Clinton's getting pushed back from the right because she said during the the Biden thing that you don't want to waste a good crisis and maybe this would be a time to get health care everybody who is complaining about Hillary Clinton saying don't waste a crisis you're all hypocrites you're all

[52:50]

crisis you're all hypocrites you're all hypocrites because every conservative has quoted that and used the same sentence in different contexts don't want to let a good crisis go to waste it's something everybody says is just smart it's not bad and if you're tried to find something bad about Hillary Clinton saying a common political that literally everybody says left and right and exactly in this context it's a real crisis maybe you can find something good out of it I've said it everybody said that most common thing in the world and the dumbasses and the news the pundits are like oh we got one we got one Hilary come she said a common thing so that must be bad it just makes me want to throw up in my mouth when I see people wasting their time on that criticism here's a good story so China's a puppet you could say but China's puppet the World Health Organization they quote accidentally

[53:51]

Organization they quote accidentally publish some negative negative data on the drug Ram disappear so this was a while ago this isn't brand-new news but not too long ago World Health Organization accidentally they say accidentally published negative information on the rim disappear now of course a lot of people saw it and then the World Health Organization said oops oops we didn't mean to do that and they took it down so hold that in your head hold in your head that the World Health Organization who is China's puppet accidentally put negative information about REM des appear on a public website at the same time China was actively trying to steal gilli ads Gilead is the maker of REM dezerter their intellectual property by trying to patent REM des aver in China I'll bet you didn't think that was possible right if you don't follow intellectual property and patents and copyrights you're saying to yourself

[54:51]

and copyrights you're saying to yourself wait a minute when I'm des affaires already patented obviously because it's a drug that Gilead has had for a long time clearly patented which I that can do anything they want because patent law is made by a government and apparently the government of China is going to let China or somebody in China patent guilty ads drug after they told the world that didn't work through that clever little leak on the World Health Organization do you see how bad this is now I can't automatically say this is all part of a large plot and that the leaked data was all part of the same scheme as stealing the intellectual property of the REM des aveer but given our recent experience with China I think you have to assume it's at least likely it's probably more likely than not given the recent

[55:52]

likely than not given the recent experience you can't know for sure but I'd say more likely than not can we do business with the country that would lie to us about a promising drug that could cause a hundred thousand deaths in this country because we didn't have the right information if it works at the same time that they're actively stealing the intellectual property for the drug can you do business with that country no no you cannot you cannot do business with that country so I think we need to kick out every student Chinese student in this country who's in any kind of a stem job especially because mostly there there are the elites children and they really really do care about getting an education in the United States for status etc but also for stealing our stuff the you know the Chinese students over here are stealing stuff so I think we should ship them all back Howard

[56:53]

we should ship them all back Howard Stern doubled down on his statement that the president's followers should all drink disinfectants and and die and and of course it's an outrage but it is Howard Stern don't you have to keep it in context you know if a politician said that I'd say outrage how can you say such a thing but Howard Stern is literally a shock jock if he says something like that why is that news except that he seems to believe the fake news I think Howard Stern who I used to think was smart turns out he's not because he believes the fake news that the president suggested drinking Clorox and Lysol so if you believe that if you believe that you're just you just you're just dumb there's no way around it if you believe that the president suggests that injecting or drinking Clorox and Lysol

[57:54]

injecting or drinking Clorox and Lysol you're just dumb there isn't any way to soften that I'm sorry there's no way around that I wish there were let's see pom-pom poem and Thursday there's an account on Twitter that I follow up called kovat 19 crusher so it's all one word covet 19 crusher I don't know who this is and I'm a little concerned because I don't know who it is because it mostly tweets promising promising therapeutics and and things that could crush the makovan but it seems to concentrate on hydroxychloroquine and it publishes a number of graphs and stuff in which it's starting to compare countries that are using hydroxychloroquine with countries that are comparable in some way but or not

[58:55]

are comparable in some way but or not now here's the part I need a fact check on if you are to believe the charts coming from this Twitter account and they're public so I suppose you could check and check the math they allege that they can show say the curve in Ireland where they're not using hydroxychloroquine versus the curve in Morocco for example in which they are and the Morocco numbers shows a drop exactly where you'd expect the drop in severity at the time they introduced the the drug you know a few weeks after that so I got my questions about whether this account is real or not so if anybody if anybody can look at any of those graphs and tell me if they pass the sniff test because there might be some context left down or something
Elon Musk's giving in trouble because there's an old tweet of his back in April I guess maybe early April or March he eat I'm not sure when

[59:58]

April or March he eat I'm not sure when he said it but early on he said based on current trends probably close to zero new cases in US by end of April and that prediction is not coming true but I would like to reiterate I don't think we can blame people for making bad predictions based on bad data you know I just don't think we should go back and start slaying people for that just wouldn't work all right here's my whiteboard presentation I'll make it quick and this will blow your mind all right this is what we're looking to do this this is not drawn to scale right so the the desks we're going to go up in the United States and they would have kept going up except for the mitigation we say that should flatten it some people say it's not because of the social distancing maybe it just would have done that on its own I don't think that's supportable but that's what

[1:00:58]

that's supportable but that's what people say and then at some point I don't know when maybe 21 and 21 or something it's supposed to drift down towards zero now that's our plan right wouldn't wouldn't you say would you say that this represents our plan except how does that happen now you're saying to yourself oh this Scott that happens because of the the herd immunity to which I say no it doesn't no not really because if you get all the way to 2021 you're going to have hundreds of thousands of deaths before you get to herd immunity so you need somebody to answer this question what exactly would make that go down because I've not heard anything in the plan that even proposes to do that I've not heard somebody say herd immunity would do it and there's even some question of whether it even

[1:01:59]

even some question of whether it even this this one even has hurt immunity I'll put the odds of 70 percent that there is her there is such a thing this is before we get a vaccination and most people will have it anyway therapeutics might be working but which ones so here's my point is that we have a plan in which the most important part of the plan which is something we do here that makes the virus trend toward zero is unstated is it not now people are saying what about vaccines what about therapeutics and what about testing and what about vaccinations those are all the right things to ask is that our plan and the answer is I don't think so so if you can get some expert to answer this question and say okay what exactly is driving it down because that our current rate of testing will

[1:03:00]

that our current rate of testing will never get there it looks like we're never going to be anywhere close to having enough tests yeah I don't think we'll ever get there and if we did get there how often would you have to test each person I don't know so is the idea that we don't know exactly what will happen but we think it's some combination of testing and herd immunity and social distancing etc therapeutics my only point is that there is an assumption in weather patterns yeah weather patterns - but doctor foul Qi is assuming that there's going to be a second bump so that tells you that it doesn't die in the summer and if it doesn't die in the summer it just comes back in the winter no vaccine from your evil buddy Gates says somebody thought you get a block for that

[1:04:09]

would never submit to a test somebody says 40% get a flu vaccine how many will get covert vaccine good question all right so that's I'll leave you with that thought the thought is that we have a plan that things will go down but I don't believe we have a plan that actually that actually shows why it goes down it's just sort of a hope I think all right somebody says mutations weaken it maybe but I'd like to see that in the plan so I'd like our press to ask that question now don't don't assume that it can't happen because I think the odds are happening are very hot I think the odds of us getting on top of it are basically a hundred percent just depends on morning things the only thing I'm adding is that I don't see a scenario where the cost in lives is not in the few hundred thousand I guess that's all I'm adding to this we don't have a plan that would keep the death deaths under a hundred thousand we do have a plan that I think

[1:05:10]

thousand we do have a plan that I think even if the plan goes according to the way we wanted to I think the plan is to lose a few hundred thousand people but that's my question all right that's all for now I will talk to you it's a night you know you know we're