Episode 931 Scott Adams: Let’s Make Bad Comparisons Like Pundits and Drink Delicious Beverages

Date: 2020-04-23 | Duration: 1:03:42

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: Michael Moore killed New Green Deal Why are gyms opening in phase 1? Dr. Rick Bright deserved to be fired President Trump says ok to take out Iranian gun boats Pelosi accuses President Trump of being control of Putin Alex Berenson’s contrarian opinions

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## Transcript

[0:08]

pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom hey good morning come on in what a great day yeah today's a great day I feel as if sometime in the next week maybe two weeks there's gonna be some really good news like really good news I can feel it coming sometime in the next two weeks Oh we'll have plenty of bad news I feel like there's something big coming maybe something medical maybe something better we'll see but while we're waiting for that we could enjoy the simultaneous sipping all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass a tankard cello sir Stein a canteen juggler flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine the other day the thing that makes everything including the coronavirus better it's called the simultaneous it

[1:10]

better it's called the simultaneous it but it happens now go yeah so I have a entertainment recommendation for you now this entertainment recommendation comes with a caveat that if I had not told you it's good you wouldn't be able to tell by looking at the advertisements for it alright there's a TV show on FX it's new I think it's several episodes they've already got the camp and it's called what we do with the shadows what we do in the shadows on FX and the setup there's as three vampires who have been living together for a hundred years and Staten Island and they're sort of lazy vampires and they have a they have a human who's a they call a familiar and

[2:10]

human who's a they call a familiar and it is the funniest freak thing that you've seen in a long time now they used the technique that the the show the office used where they where they act like they're in real life but they'll occasionally turn to the camera sort of like modern family did so it's like a half documentary ish fake documentary of people living their real life so it's like a fake reality show if you will but man isn't clever now I'm just gonna tell you I don't want to ruin it for you but I'm just gonna tell you one concept from the show all right so it's three vampires living in Staten Island and then one familiar which is the or maybe more familiars there are the humans who take care of them and then there's one who's a special kind of vampire he's an energy vampire and he looks like Dilbert and he just works in a cubicle and the only does is he goes

[3:10]

a cubicle and the only does is he goes from cubicle to cubicle he makes conversation and he feeds off your energy while he drains of that Effie and here's I'll just gonna tell you this one thing that is all you need to know about how clever this is the actual vampires who suck blood the only thing that they're afraid of is this guy all right that's it that's all you need to know about how clever this show knows that the vampires are afraid of the of the guy from the cubicle who will suck their energy out of them and in one episode again I don't want to give away too much I just I just need you to know how clever this is the real vampires get to there they're virgins that they're good and drink their blood they've captured some human virgins and they find their human virgins by having their familiar joined live-action role-playing groups where he where he recruits all the Virgin's with for the vampires to to suck their blood because I guess virgin blood is extra good I

[4:13]

I guess virgin blood is extra good I hear I mean that's what I hear but in one episode the real vampires get to the virgins too late because the the energy the energy vampire has already sucked all their life force out and they're like oh no no good no nutritional value it's it is so good you have to watch it anyway if all you saw was the commercial for it the commercial doesn't sell it at all you know usually the the trailer for a movie is sometimes better than the movie itself but but this is very much the reverse you would have no idea how good this is just by watching the commercials for it all right there is still a big mystery for me and why we're not hearing more about this Michael Moore backed documentary planet of the humans because it pretty much debunks the green energy whole field how is that not a gigantic

[5:16]

whole field how is that not a gigantic story that's the only thing we can talk about today I mean besides coronavirus it would be the second biggest story but how is that not getting more attention is there something going on here that I don't understand somebody pointed out that even Fox News is not hammering on this as much as one would expect you would expect that they would be talking about this non-stop but and I know it's been mentioned I'm pretty sure it's been mentioned I think it was mentioned by on the 5 probably at least but whether or not it's been mentioned wouldn't you expect and it's been mentioned the website of course Fox News website but shouldn't this be like the main story I feel like there's just something missing in all of this I don't know what it is one thing missing was of course talk about nuclear power that this of course brings up that question but there's just something going on and I don't quite understand it yet about how we're

[6:17]

understand it yet about how we're dealing with this story it could be that people who just can't wrap their heads around it it could be that it's so mind destabilizing to think that Michael Moore may have killed the green new deal because he did he killed the green new deal it might be the G people just can't wrap their heads around it and so we just talked about the things that are easier to talk about I don't know what something's going on I hear that in phase one of the reopening plan that the government has put together that apparently there were some you know friends and lobbyists and stuff who got included in the first phase that gyms could reopen so gyms would be in the first phase of reopening if certain requirements were met by States now this raises a question because one of only one of two things can be true so you decide which of these things are true I

[7:18]

decide which of these things are true I would like to warn you that if you have children who are already awake probably not but they should not listen to this next part there might be a curse word coming up I think only one today so if you want to get past this one you probably okay after that but there are certain topics that can only be expressed with an obscene word and it's coming up so there are two possibilities with the food to explain why gyms are included in phase one number one everything we've ever been told about how Coronas virus spreads is wrong because that would make sense right because a gym is really a place where people go to breathe hard and expel water droplets in a variety of ways so if you were to design a place that would have the maximum spread of coronavirus

[8:19]

have the maximum spread of coronavirus you'd say well I don't know let's put people in close proximity will make them sweaty you know we'll get them nice and moist on their hands and stuff and then we'll have them exercise hard breathing hard and stand close together use the same circulation system and make sure they touch a lot of the same things you know all the equipment and stuff so that's what we'll do we'll build a system that maximizes the spread
wouldn't it look like a gym so here's my swear word coming up there are only two possibilities for explaining why gyms are in phase one number one everything we've been told about the coronavirus is a lie that's one possibility or number two we have achieved new levels of dumb because if there's anything dumber than open a gym during a pandemic I haven't heard it can you top it can you

[9:20]

haven't heard it can you top it can you top that for dumb or or everything we've been told is just a lie that it doesn't doesn't travel through the air doesn't you can't pick it up by touching things that infected people have have touched I mean maybe why is somebody delivering something right now okay so creepy old guys stay home okay I'm reading a comment I don't know what that was related to now IME a avid gym goer for over 30 years I've been going to the same gym I love the gym and and mine was like a full health club so it wasn't just gym equipment there's snack bars and you know babysitters and classes and stuff so there I don't think there's anybody in the country who wants

[10:21]

there's anybody in the country who wants gyms to open more than I do because it's really the only other place I go you know 50% of all of my outside the home exposure is my gym so nobody wants those gyms open more than I do I mean I really want the gym open but I don't understand what's happening you know my my love of gyms is not independent from my love of understanding what's going on either this is the worst idea in the world to have them in phase 1 or everything we've been told is a lie pick one
that said if you know I also believe in freedom and I also think we've probably reached the point where the country is willing to take the hundreds of thousands of deaths in order to get open and why don't I just say it out loud

[11:24]

and why don't I just say it out loud because I feel like people are just hesitant to say it because we don't want to be bad people so let me say it out loud and and I'll start it by sitting by a special special message for the dumb people so for the dumb people who are listening to this next part I would be sad if somebody I knew died of the corona virus just so you know that because otherwise you're going to ask that question as soon as I say the next thing the next thing is I don't see any possibility that there's any way to get to the other end of this without killing a few hundred thousand Americans just Americans forget about how many people would die in the rest of the world but just Americans I don't see any way to get there everything that I see has pretty big drawbacks won't work etc so

[12:26]

pretty big drawbacks won't work etc so I'm ok with opening the gyms as long as we're honest about it if we're honest about it opening the gyms sort of is the opposite of our strategy of social distancing right yeah and if we're gonna if we're gonna open the gyms just say I'm sorry if we're gonna open the gyms just open everything you with the exception of maybe you know large sporting events or you know maybe you know clubs and bars might be special but if you're going to open the gyms certainly open the restaurants certainly open business certainly open everything else and let's just let's just take the take the price and a couple of the 3,000 people are gonna die I don't see a way around that and if there's no way around it it is not an adult decision to put it off if you can't get around it and and delaying

[13:27]

you can't get around it and and delaying doesn't seem to be kicking up any kind of a solution so far there's a whole bunch of cool things that are on the horizon but they're still on the horizon I don't see them you know running to the rescue so every day there's a new story of a vaccine that's done earlier than we thought and they're testing it and the thing they tried that worked or didn't work but we don't have anything that looks like a solution we have nothing in the correct me if I'm wrong I don't believe we have anything in the pipeline they're reasonably would allow us to open up the economy and also avoid a few hundred thousand deaths right I don't see anything that would do that because even if we're really good at testing it just means we know who got it I mean it's not really gonna stop it from ripping through the population so let's be honest about it it's gonna be a hundred three hundred thousand Americans are gonna die and for the dumb people

[14:27]

are gonna die and for the dumb people watching this yes I would be sad if it were a family member yeah in case you're wondering about that yeah I would be sad if a family member died you hypothetical dumb people all right there's a story about dr. Rick bright and because the the simulation loves us and wants to entertain us this doctors last name is bright his first name is Rick which is of course short for Richard what's the other nickname that people named Richard have sometimes they're called a Rick sometimes they're called rich sometimes Richard sometimes dick so dick bright he he issued a statement saying that talking about how he was removed from this position as director of the biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority and the HHS deputy

[15:29]

Development Authority and the HHS deputy was
was okay it's all too boring what his job title was but he says that he was removed because he kept saying that hydroxychloroquine should not be promoted because it was not had not gone through the proper testing for effectiveness more than safety I would think and he was demoted or basically moved to another part of the government where it would be less trouble and this story was presented as though he was sort of a whistleblower they didn't use that word but there was a presenter that way he's sort of a brave whistleblower who's complaining about how his expert advice was not being taken seriously and he was demoted for it but I read his story I mean I only read his side of the story without even seeing the other side of the story which is even worse just reading his side of the story I

[16:30]

reading his side of the story I concluded I would have fired him I mean I wouldn't have av I don't even know if I would have reassigned him I think I would have just fired him because everything about this guy looked like he was quite a quite a Richard if you know what I mean and he looked like he would be impossible to work with and he seemed to think that it was his decision about risk management where I remind the world that risk management is the boss's job risk management is not the experts job the expert is to inform the boss of the risks if you do this or that their information they are not in the risk management business directly it's the boss the boss in this case being Trump and if Trump decided that everything he had seen made a good risk management decision to let's say promote the hydroxychloroquine presumably in combination with is this a thermos and NSYNC because that's when the least

[17:33]

NSYNC because that's when the least anecdotally that's what it looks Eames like it works if the president made a risk management decision it's his to make it might be right it might be wrong but it's only the president's to make after he has gotten the input and you have to fire people who don't understand that certainly if you were in the military you would be demoted or fired or reassigned right away if if you told the if he told you boss your opinion and you fully expressed it and you know he heard it and then he makes a decision that's not the one way you would have gone so so that's how it works the president is including other considerations which maybe mr. Richard bright dr. Richard Wright did not have as his priorities all right I'm loving the story about the president tweeting

[18:34]

the story about the president tweeting his orders I don't even know if he told the military or he just tweeted it I assume he told the military to but he could have just tweeted it that the military has permission basically to blow up the Iranian gunboats that are hassling them now I'm so interested to know how this plays out number one does that really mean that our US Navy is going to just blow up those ships if they get near probably not right because if you're the captain of the ship you're you're probably going to be pretty flexible and you're not going to blow up an Iranian boat because it's killing people I mean you don't kill people just to make a point you know you need a better reason so will the Iranians just sort of back up a little bit and say we're not touching you we're not touching you we're just in the area and and try to try to game the system and find out where the where the limit is or will

[19:35]

where the where the limit is or will they just say I think we'd better stop doing this because they haven't blasted one yet right somebody says Trump is a con man all right I'm gonna I'm gonna block you for coming into here and saying Trump is a con man it's not because I disagree with you or because I agree with you completely irrelevant it's just that you didn't pass the Turing test so to be a guest and to come in here you have to at least pass the test that it doesn't look like a laundry list of common phrases have been message now in order you should show some kind of human thought possibly connected to the topic but if you just say Warren is making bad you haven't passed the Turing test because I could write a program very easily like yeah I could use a the basic language you know print quotes orange man bad so

[20:40]

you know print quotes orange man bad so a computer can do what you're doing you can say Trump is a con man but why would I do it what would be the point of it so you will be sent into the I lost you damn it this is this interface lost you but anyway if I see you again I will block you for that you have to show some signs of being a human being that's like a minimum if I don't if I can't even tell if you're human by your comment maybe I would like less exposure to you Nancy Pelosi was speculating on a public interview that Putin must have some blackmail material on Trump because it's the only thing that explains it now shouldn't she be removed from office for that I would say that if the Speaker of the House speculates publicly without

[21:42]

the House speculates publicly without any evidence no evidence and she doesn't even claim she has me that the President of the United States is actually being controlled by a foreign government shouldn't he be removed from office immediately for speculating that now she had evidence if she had evidence of course we want to we want to know like if Nancy Pelosi had some evidence that Trump was being blackmailed by yeah we want to know but if she doesn't have evidence she should be immediately removed from office for saying something so insanely dangerous during a crisis immediately she yes sir what is the process for that is there is there some process for removing a Speaker of the House from office but that should be started all right

[22:46]

Fox News is reporting that in 2012 it was first reported in 2012 so this is a story that's sort of been around for a while that Joe Biden was Osama bin Laden's preference for president so apparently the reporting is that we have some intelligence that bin Laden was trying to get somebody else in al-qaeda to assassinate President Obama when he was flying over to the Middle East I guess and also Petraeus and that bin Laden his reasoning was that he really wanted Biden to become the president because Biden is quote totally unprepared for that post which will lead the u.s. into a crisis so I don't know if any of this is real do you somebody says bitcoin is surging really let's see what bitcoin is doing it's so in it's

[23:47]

what bitcoin is doing it's so in it's surging so much oh it's surging 6% okay all right so I have to tell you I made a investment decision several months ago based on an 11-year old so an 11 year old was telling me about snapchat and when I saw the new feature that they'd added snap maps where you can see all your friends and chat with him and stuff and then you listen to an 11 year old and they'll tell you it's the only app that you I mean they used tick-tock and stuff but for communicating it's basically it's basically snapchat so I bought a stock and snapchat and they went up 32 percent yesterday so they're doing something right so I got lucky on that one I don't tell you the ones worth it if I don't if I only tell you a stock that did well don't assume that's my only stock I bought because you know buying

[24:48]

bought because you know buying individual stocks is a fool's game and you should only do it for I don't entertainment or if you have some special knowledge about a company but generally it's a bad idea I just got lucky on that one because I took advice from eleven eleven year olds literally I literally took that advice from an eleven year old so the story about Obama wanting Biden to be President who knows how true that is but it's a funny story so I woke up in the sort of a competitive mode this morning because you know we're all having this Groundhog Day feeling it feels like every day you wake up and it's just more stories about this or that therapeutic works or doesn't work this or that state is doing better at this of that comparing something that shouldn't be compared and so it's making me a little crazy about how bad we are as a society and making decisions and

[25:53]

the decisions that we make most of the time are not going to end civilization if you get them wrong most of them but the decisions we make this year with the coronavirus could actually you know Edmunds civilization on earth I suppose if you did the worst case scenario so we got really really big stakes and if we don't think about them correctly we're in trouble and it's almost to the point where I'm not even sure you can call this a virus crisis anymore it sort of started as a virus that's not the part of the physical world that is the trigger for at all and of course the virus is killing people so that matters a lot what it feels like the problem has morphed into a thinking problem and a decision making problem because if we made the right decisions the problem we would have would be much less than if we make the wrong decisions and so let me make

[26:54]

the wrong decisions and so let me make this case would you say that getting hit by a car is your biggest problem today like as a pedestrian would you say that's your biggest problem and the answer is no no you wouldn't say that's a bigger problem and the reason is because you know not to make the decision to walk in front of a car so if your decision-making is good I think I will not walk in front of a speeding car then you don't have to worry about the physical part because the physical part didn't change it's still a car still speeding down the road but you made the proper decision I think I will not walk in front of that car okay and so it is with the coronavirus except that the right decision is a little less obvious then I'm walking in front of a car there is a right play we just don't know what it is and if we're not good at a thinking we're not going to find it so it feels to be like that the coronavirus

[27:56]

it feels to be like that the coronavirus is a little bit like the speeding car in a terrible analogy way I know there are lots of differences right but the point is if you think about either one of them right you get a much better result than if you think about it wrong and when I wrote my book looser think which was tips on how to think better on the Internet basically I didn't realize how timely it would be because looser think could actually destroys civilization and a lot of has to do with making bad comparisons and let me tell you a few of them that are happening today so there's a writer named Alex Berenson who's getting a lot of attention because he's he's being somewhat of a contrarian about the press about coronavirus and his position seems to be that the that is an overstated problem and that may be the hysteria is the bigger problem than the virus maybe we should go back to work that sort of

[28:58]

we should go back to work that sort of vibe so he's ugly on the maybe it's overstated to get back to work side of things but the real problem is not the virus in his case the real problem is how he thinks about it and then people who don't know the difference think he's thinking about it right and so they agree with him here's what he said today after hai had tweeted tongue-in-cheek that it would be another day of comparing the wrong things and he tweets a New York Times story and he says they'd be more credible if they mentioned that only New York City and maybe New Orleans and Detroit have had serious problems now his point is that the New York Times should carve out and I would agree with this point that whatever's happening in New York City and the other hotspots is entirely different from what's happening in the rest of the country and then I say so so what do you do with that now I

[29:59]

say so so what do you do with that now I think what Alex Berenson is suggesting we would do and I hope that I'm getting this right is that you would suggest that the places that are not like those hotspots are probably ripe to be reopened soonish because there's something different about them well one of the things that's different about them is that their earlier in the cycle so he's making the mistake of comparing what they are now with what they would be if you stopped mitigating as if those would be similar the entire point of it is that if you opened up now you would have an outbreak of massive infections and it would become more like New York City so if he's comparing New York City in the middle of a big you know what might be their peak to Nebraska that hasn't started getting it yet that's just a bad comparison problem right so it's not

[31:00]

comparison problem right so it's not about the virus it's about how you think about it so the thinking is broken let me give some of them examples you will you'll see in the news today as you've seen let yesterday and last week the people will tell you that there's a study about hydroxychloroquine the shows that it doesn't work but of course when you drill down you'll find out that it's the wrong comparison because they gave the hydroxychloroquine without the user thermos and n' and zinc the zinc being the secret ingredient that that you need in there so they would they would test it without that and they would give it to people who were already ready for a ventilator when basically it's too late so all of the studies are going to be comparing the wrong thing to the wrong thing they always have it looks like they always will be it looks like all of our news will be the wrong things being compared how about comparing the United States to Sweden and then making a

[32:00]

States to Sweden and then making a decision based on Sweden doing it differently and they seem like they're not going down the tubes so why don't we do that well how about because the United States and Sweden have too many differences and how about we don't really even know how many people are infected we don't know if the testing is just as good we don't know if Sweden will have a good result in the long run we don't know anything about Sweden except that it's so different of course we expect that they would be having a different experience but what does that tell us about us how did you go to your summer cabin what you didn't go to your summer cabin well if you'd lived in Sweden about half of them have a summer cabin so is it easier to socially isolate when half of your public has a summer cabin and also apparently half of the public I'm not sure if this is true but I read it half the public in Sweden is living alone and they don't have the same kind

[33:01]

alone and they don't have the same kind of density we have so you'll see more of those comparisons
how about how about everybody saying that if we have some temporary tracking of people and some temporary restrictions now going to parks and stuff that we're clearly slipping into Nazi Germany you're gonna hear a lot of that today to which I say you know coughing into your elbow is obviously a slippery slope to the Holocaust right because coughing into your elbow is just giving in to the fascist demands of your overlords because you want a coffin the area you just want to go you don't want to be told you got a coffin here elbow because if you start giving and on the little stuff and it's like okay I'll coffin my elbow that's not a big deal the next thing you know they're gonna be tracking you and

[34:02]

know they're gonna be tracking you and then after that they round you up and they murdered you it's it's obvious boop boop boop ABC so if you're coughing in your elbow that's your only two jumps away from Nazi Germany you can hear a lot of that today and yes I'm kidding if anybody's coming in here late now let's also compare Trump's diplomatic public statements about President Xi to how you and your friends would talk about President Xi in private because if he were in private and it was just you and your friend you'd probably say something like well that Chinese government is a murderous regime and President Xi is a terrible dictator and he's taken the organs from dissidents and he's rounded up wee girls and put them in prison camps and he's killing Americans with fentanyl that's what you'd say to your friend yeah you'd say that quite honestly to your friend privately but if

[35:04]

honestly to your friend privately but if you're the President of the United States and you're trying to avoid economic meltdown you're trying to avoid a nuclear confrontation how might you talk about the person that you need to negotiate with might you be polite yes you might my you be respectful even if you don't feel it on the inside yes you might so let us not compare how the president treats Putin in public or President Xi in public or Kim jong-un in public let us not compare that now you were talking privately to your friend about these same topics bad comparison our
hospitals anywhere overwhelmed okay so that's an example of loser think I won't call you out but whoever said our hospitals overwhelmed you know what's wrong with that right you know you're

[36:06]

wrong with that right you know you're comparing places that are experiencing you know the the peak with places that are predicted that they would have a peak if we had not already done mitigation so when do you say to yourself here's a little Oh God I I don't want to insult my audience but I kind of have to because there's so many of you have the same feeling I'm going to insult you for utility okay I wouldn't do it just to be mean you know I wouldn't do it just because I'm in a bad mood I'm going to insult you some of you not healthy I'm getting in Seoul some of you so it'll hurt a little bit more when you say things that don't make sense I'm going to add a little pain to it if you've ever said in the last week hey hospitals and parts of the country are not busy you're being stupid

[37:08]

are not busy you're being stupid okay because you're comparing a full mitigation scenario where obviously we can't predict exactly the week that something would be overloaded we just know there was a risk and so people over prepared if you don't understand that being over-prepared doesn't mean you did it wrong do you not understand that that being over-prepared probably means you erred in the correct direction because we didn't have the option of hitting the nail on the head from a thousand yards away with a BB if we could hit the nail on the head from a thousand yards away with a BB every one of our hospitals would be have just the right amount of capacity just right they'd be operating 75% capacity 25% left over just in case man those hospitals would be nailing it if if you could shoot a BB a thousand

[38:10]

if if you could shoot a BB a thousand yards and hit the top of a nail if you could do that then it would make sense to wonder why the hospitals are so empty but if you're wondering why the hospital is empty and you think that that means that the flu is not so bad the virus is not so bad that's stupid it's stupid don't ever say that in public if you don't wanna the people here at to think oh my god why is he comparing the hospitals who couldn't possibly know what was going to happen why is he angry that they over prepared now wouldn't it be better if they prepared exactly the right amount yeah it would it would be better how could they know that how could they possibly know that they couldn't so they over prepared should they maybe look to correct a little bit oh I would think so

[39:11]

correct a little bit oh I would think so and I think some are I think some of the hospitals are are saying hey we overcorrect it maybe we should do some more elective surgeries at least until things look worse maybe the mitigation is working better than we thought but man if you're comparing those empty hospitals to as if you're saying that the empty hospitals tell us that's the reason that it's okay to open up the country you're not understanding anything you really are not understanding anything right so sorry I didn't mean to be mean but somebody has to be mean to the people who are looking at the empty hospitals and declaring that their four is no worse than seasonal flu that is such broken brain thinking that that needs to be expunged from from the conversation do you feel it is an unsolicited unsolicited panic I don't

[40:12]

unsolicited unsolicited panic I don't know if that means that could cause a famine due to the supply lines restricted well panic panic couldn't cause problems yes
so let's shut the country down with bad information if I ever talk to you about the so you're this user is saying in the comments so let's shut down the country with bad information I actually wrote a book two of them actually I mentioned this there were when you start the sentence with so at least on the Internet everything that comes after so is just your own imagination it's not something that ever happened so this user saying so let's shut down the country down with bad information did I suggest that did it sound like I suggested let's use bad information to shut the country is that what you heard because he you need to you need to check your thinking if you

[41:15]

you need to check your thinking if you thought that I was suggesting hey let's use bad information and shut down the country that's what you heard how about we don't know what's gonna happen in the future so sometimes it's better to over prepare that's why you should have heard and nobody can be exactly right and knowing how much to over prepare because the models are not that accurate we don't know how well mitigation work and maybe you adjust it's probably time to adjust but it cannot be said that it was a mistake how about comparing the president Trump's performance to that other president that you imagine could have been the president who has the gift of ESP an unlike President Trump who is a normal human being who can't see the future especially in the fog of war and a brand new situation in which even the models and the experts look like they're just

[42:15]

and the experts look like they're just guessing compare that and Trump's terrible performance as a regular human being to what we could have had for example we could have had a Joe Biden we could have had a Hillary Clinton and they have the gift of hindsight meaning that if they know what happened in the past they can also know what will happen in the future it's an amazing power and regular humans don't have it but they could have made all the right decisions and why can't we have one of them why can't we have a magic president or I mean really why did we make such a big mistake and elect a human president with the inability to see the future the inability to make all the right decisions when there's no data that is reliable why can't we get the president whose magic I mean every time I look at our normal human president I'm so disappointed in him not being magic

[43:15]

so disappointed in him not being magic when it's obvious we could have had a magic president who would know what to do even when it's unknowable come on give us a magic president all right well I feel like I'm exhibit a of how this lockdown is not good for our mental health are you having the experience where you'll have bouts of anger and the anger doesn't seem to be necessarily related to what's happening around you you know you can certainly make the case why you should be angry but you can always make that case you can always be angry you know being angry is sort of a choice you know you you can decide how you feel about stuff and that's really up to you and you know there's a morning like this where I I just open up Twitter and I just fly into a rage because I think I might die because people are bad at comparing things and I've always thought that you

[44:18]

things and I've always thought that you know we're all gonna die right well I mean I might be immortal in the sense that I'll become a computer entity someday in the cloud but my physical body you know it's gonna die and one of the things I think about is I don't want to die in a dumb way you know imagine one of the reasons I'm not a rock climber is because what I think about if I think about you know that dangerous job of being a free free rock climber with just your fingertips and you know there's nothing holding you up there what I think about is if I slipped and it took let's say 10 seconds to reach the ground to my death and now as I was falling down I'd be thinking to myself why was I so stupid I shouldn't have been a free climber or I'm not good at this and then I'm dead and the part I worry about is not the dead part the part I worried about is that 10 second fall where I feel so disgusted at myself

[45:19]

fall where I feel so disgusted at myself for being so stupid to think it was a good risk management to climb rocks when I'm sort of not good at that right and when I look at Twitter and I see the quality of the thinking and I realized that my life to some extent will depend on the quality of other people's to the thinking because collectively we have to think right so that our leaders can make the right decisions right because we sort of have to support the decisions or they don't they don't get implemented so watching the United States not be able to compare the simplest things is a it makes me mad and what it makes me what it makes me mad about somebody says that you blocked me on Twitter well you probably had it coming if you got blocked on Twitter in the last few days it's because you said something in public which claimed to show your superior knowledge of my opinion and it

[46:22]

superior knowledge of my opinion and it was different from my own opinion that I've estate if you're stating my opinions for me you're using Twitter wrong you should be using Twitter to state your opinions and then people can interact with you but if you're stating other people's opinions incorrectly and then you're using it to insult them for what you imagined was their opinion but wasn't well then you're not using Twitter right although you're using it in the most common way
somebody says you're in a rage because your amygdala my amygdala is swollen maybe so
update you thinking catch or avoid coronavirus today I'm thinking that I would prefer to catch it and get it over with but that's not a logical choice meaning that you know there's there's a personality element to this so my my personal risk management is that I don't

[47:23]

personal risk management is that I don't want to spend the next year worrying about getting it and I don't think it's been gonna be gone in a year because I just feel like it's gonna be with us so I don't want to spend a few quality years of my life hiding in my house worrying that I might die I am ready to make the risk that I would die or be deeply injured somehow in return for my freedom and for the economy to be working so I will make an attempt you know I'll make all the smart attempts to avoid you know getting too close to people and stuff but I no longer often worry about getting it I want to just do the things that are smart and then clear my mind of worrying about getting it and rather put myself in the mindset of I might get it I might not doesn't matter somebody says you blocked me because of

[48:23]

somebody says you blocked me because of my vaccines opinion yeah I would block somebody from for a vaccine opinion that sounds like something I would have done if I blocked you for a vaccine opinion it means that I thought your opinion was literally dangerous doesn't even know you know I'm no a vaccine expert but if you were making weird claims about Bill Gates using vaccines to conquer the world or something like that that I blocked you yeah if you made any kind of a vaccine conspiracy theory I blocked you now I am I do have some sympathy or empathy I I guess I agree with the anti-vaxxers up to a point so the anti-vaxxers who say hey we haven't really tested all of these vaccinations in combination we've only tested them individually but we give them in combination and we there might

[49:26]

them in combination and we there might be too much for the body to handle blah blah especially if you give them to children now I I don't know if that's true I don't know that that's bad for you but it certainly raises the question if if the entire point of medical testing is that you want to test things because you don't know you don't know you know if you don't know it's dangerous that's why you test it but we're giving massive combinations of vaccines to kids and we've never tested the combinations so we are doing with vaccines the thing which every medical expert would say you shouldn't do that that should be noted right that's that's just an objective statement that there's a standard in science there's a reason for the standard and it is flagrantly being not done now it could be and I think this is probably the argument that there's no way to do it because in order to test the combination

[50:27]

because in order to test the combination of vaccines wouldn't you have to not vaccinate a certain number of children because you'd have to test children they're the ones who get the vaccines if you test the adults you wouldn't really know could be different so we have a situation to where we probably can't ethically test but we also can't know if it's a without it so smart people we hope they're smart have said you know we got these two unknowns we've got these vaccines and combination we think we'd maybe see a problem you know we think it would be obvious if a problem pops up maybe we can dig into it and see if see if we can know more about it but we think that overall it's sort of a you know best professional gas then you're better off doing this even if it does cause some problems you're better off doing it and we can't test it we wish we could but we think this is the best risk management reward okay I can see I can

[51:29]

management reward okay I can see I can see why we got in this situation no vaccine has been double-blind tested no vaccine has been double-blind tested I think I think I've heard that claim before but we can tell that we don't have measles right what we can't tell is if there might be some new kind of health problem that got introduced from vaccines and we thought it was from something else somebody says sorry that's dunning-kruger effect what is you'd have to be more specific vaccines are liability free well shouldn't they be you know there's a reason that governments are liability free because governments have to make decisions that kill people but if they do it right they're making decisions as save more

[52:30]

they're making decisions as save more people than they kill so there's a reason that governments can't be sued for a lot of stuff and is that therefore and the government's are sort of the ones who are behind - vaccinations so it does make sense to be that vaccinations that vaccine companies could not be sued or they have a special court that does make sense because you otherwise it would be any vaccines so if you have one you need the other problem I you know I'm going to throw out a concept that I kept throwing out earlier and I couldn't get anybody to agree with it except on social media I've never seen anybody in the government or on TV arguing this and it goes like this why are we opening by zip code is there a is there any argument and or model or experience that would tell us that opening by by physical location is the way to do it because wouldn't it make

[53:30]

way to do it because wouldn't it make more sense for everybody who has an individual situation that's low risk to open up no matter where they are I mean is there a reason that the safest situation in New York City can't open today if it's the safest situation now let's say the safest situation is a let's say it's a store vendor who already is recovered from coronavirus I'll just give an example has been tested for antibodies wears a mask and it doesn't touch the food or whatever it is is the reason that person can't open up I mean there's no customers but besides that so I just ask the question it seems to me that we should open everything right away to the people who are in the safest situations and that we could probably just discourage people who are in a bad situation from going to work half of them would go to work anyway because they they just want to

[54:33]

anyway because they they just want to take the risk whether they did the money or whatever and the other half would probably say yeah you know because I can stay home a little bit longer I think I will I think I'll ride this out a little bit longer just let everybody make their own choice I think you would be surprised how many people choose correctly especially under the glare of public opinion you know if you look at the number of people who recycle the number of people who wear their seat belt you know even though it's you get a ticket if you don't wear your seat belt I think people mostly wear their seat belt for safety I can't prove it but you know if when you put on your seat belt is the reason you're putting it on to a take it that's not the reason I put my seatbelt on so I think you could get pretty darn good compliance maybe half of the people at risk the other half will take the chance some percentage of them will get the coronavirus you know

[55:33]

them will get the coronavirus you know we could probably flex our hospitals up to handle that they would be overwhelmed maybe but nobody has modeled that and in the if they did the modeling wouldn't be if they did that what the modeling wouldn't be reliable yeah experts are monitoring by country it all doesn't make sense to me now we're hearing more reports as of yesterday that young people are getting strokes and young people are having problems you know what I'm starting to wonder about I'm wondering if the reports about young people dying from coronavirus are either well I'm sure it's true first of all but since it's so rare it makes me wonder if it's foreign influence because if you were if you were China or Russia and you wanted to mess with the United States what messages would you want to reinforce well if I were Russia or China

[56:35]

reinforce well if I were Russia or China and I want to mess with United States I would say it's killing children too it's killing young people too the reason I would say that is it then we won't open up the longer we believe that it also kills young people and frankly we just care more about young people you know children it feels like disinformation it's what it feels like which is not to say that young people are dying but they're probably dying as such a small number that it would only make sense for that to be a national story if you're in the disinformation not it's not disinformation but if you're in the business of trying to ruin the United States that would be the story you'd push so I got my questions what are the sources of that story and New Jersey hasn't hit Plateau yet

[57:35]

most of you know Tony Heller who was a famous for his skepticism about climate change and he came after me yesterday I ended up blocking him because he was comparing things poorly and what was it what was his argument no forgetting his argument yeah he had a terrible comparison and he got blocked for that
Elizabeth Warren's brother has died of kovat did that really happen well that still hasn't satisfied by somebody in the comments and that I don't know that that's true somebody says the Asthma vulnerability was debunked by Washington University School of Medicine I would love to see that link because I have a suspicion you probably I think that's the reason you told me that is that I expressed a suspicion the asthma wasn't the problem

[58:38]

suspicion the asthma wasn't the problem that people said it was and the reason that I'm suspecting that and certainly don't take your medical advice for me that's your warning the reason I suspected that is that the the way the lungs were responding under coronavirus was weird meaning that their oxidant level could be down to like you know 50 or 60 and they could still be walking around when they should be dead so there's something about how it was affecting the lungs there wasn't you know the straightforward way you'd imagine then it was also the rapport that smokers were doing better not worse which also makes me think okay whatever this is has a very unique way it works on the lungs and it could be that that unique way it works just doesn't interfere with asthma doesn't make it worse so I was at least speculating that we would have known for sure if asthma was a was a death sentence if you got coronavirus because we would have enough data by now so the dog that wasn't

[59:39]

data by now so the dog that wasn't barking is after all these cases of corona virus I was seeing the list that always had asthma and it would sometimes not have asthma anymore so remember the the list of things that would kill you would be like you know overweight heart problems high blood pressure diabetes asthma and then suddenly I would notice the list would just asthma wasn't on the list anymore and smoking fell off the list too if he noticed that remember in the early days smoking was you know if your smoker you're pretty much dead and then apparently that's not the case right we don't have confirmation on that but there was the one study that said that smokers actually did better than non-smokers could be because the smoke interferes with the ability of whatever to get into whatever so it could be just an oddity but and then today I was seeing that almost everybody who is

[1:00:40]

seeing that almost everybody who is dying in New York City had some pretty serious health problems and diabetes seems to be a big one so diabetes is sort of moving up the charts along with you know heart heart and blood pressure problems so it's starting to look like diabetes weight and cardiovascular are the biggest risks somebody says you have a blood oxygen saturation of 60 Wow I didn't know you could survive that in normal situations
somebody says ten thousand deaths in the u.s. are from nursing homes yeah so if it turns out that smoking and asthma are not actually the death sentences and we thought I'm really gonna want to open up the economy even more than I do all

[1:01:42]

the economy even more than I do all right maybe the smoke going into the lungs kills the virus I don't know I saw a story the other day about a company and I think I interpreted this correctly but see if maybe somebody can confirm this I thought it was a company that was developing a fara UV light that kills viruses that would actually be like a ventilator that you would stick into the lungs and then turn on the light and the idea was that the UV light literally shining in your lungs might kill enough virus to give your immune system you know a little bit of a boost you know on itself I mean it wouldn't boost your immune system it would just let your immune system do what it was I don't know that vaping is good for you something tells me fake vaping is a whole different situation insulin receptors if somebody says is the issue all right so that's about all I have for today I'm going to talk to you tonight

[1:02:53]

diabetes and high BMI you know I say open up the country to everybody who who is under sixty and doesn't have heart problem or diabetes let's just go for it I'm ready to just go for it now of course you know maybe the hot spots need to do something differently but in my neighborhood my neighborhood doesn't seem to have a problem and if it if it became a problem I think I'd probably still be okay with it because those are the risks is it clear at this point that all of our problems are from huddling people indoors it does seem like that's the big problem all right I'll talk to you tonight you know where to find me