Episode 926 Scott Adams: Join Me to Ease Into a Great Night of Sleep. Yes, I am That Boring.

Date: 2020-04-21 | Duration: 29:53

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: A really great coronavirus task force update today Ken Burns films released for online history courses Today’s communication makes our issues self-healing Peter Attia, MD really good article Coronavirus death toll and the 2020 election

If you would like my channel to have a wider audience and higher production quality, please donate via my startup (Whenhub.com) at this link: https://interface.my/ScottAdamsSays

> [!note] Rough Transcript
> 
> This is an auto-generated transcript and may contain errors.

## Transcript

[0:11]

come on in here it's time for the evening relaxation it's like a slippery delightful slide in which you slide into a good night's sleep yep I have that uninteresting tonight and you'll be drifting off to sleep so good I have to show you this scene over here hold on view let's boo the cat standing behind my circle light hey boo she knows we're watching her all right for those of you who or that was the least of least useful thing that ever happened all right let's talk about some things that happened first of all let me check in can I get a fact check how long has it been since we saw signs of life from Joe Biden can somebody give me a read on

[1:14]

Biden can somebody give me a read on that because I don't think he was around today right and is that three days in a row can somebody give me a fact check on that has anybody seen Biden on video or even I don't know phone call in the last three days because if not I think it's already the end of the road that would that would be my guess if it's true that it's been three days without saying then he's already decided to or he's in the process of deciding to get out of the race
Thursday somebody says the last time we saw huh all right well I I'll keep looking at your comments in case somebody saw something here's something I've been trying to figure out there's all of this business with a corona virus okay most people say

[2:16]

with a corona virus okay most people say three days yeah there's the business with the corona virus make it more likely or less likely that we'll have a green new deal do you think it'll be more likely or less likely I think a or C on a tweet today that was celebrating the collapse of oil prices and it was a let's say it was an inelegant tweet that I believe she got rid of it but I'm trying to figure out what happens to the green new deal if all the demand for oil goes away leave you know there's no commuting is it possible that the corona virus solved climate change that's not impossible right because I don't know if you've you know looked out at the streets if you've left your house or anything but there's not much traffic happening right now and you know what all the traffic that is happening is

[3:17]

all the traffic that is happening is essential and here's a big question I'm wondering I'm wondering if people will just decide that they didn't need all the stuff they had before and here's the theory behind that if you ever heard the theory of baseline happiness it's the idea that you're sort of set and how happy you can be even if conditions in your life get really good you don't get much happier and if things are really bad yeah you do get you get sad if things are really bad but does it last that long you know a year later or whatever after let's say a death in the family or something you tend to drift back to whatever happiness level is your baseline and we all have a different baseline so I'm wondering if people are discovering that they've been in lockdown long enough that even though nobody would choose it probably nobody would choose it except introverts it's pretty good times for introverts I have

[4:18]

pretty good times for introverts I have to I have to admit being an introvert I
I'm getting through this a lot better than most of you but I'm wondering if people will realize that their happiness level didn't change as much as they assumed it would because if I said to you I'm going to take away all your freedoms and you'll have to just stay in a house and you know you'll have to worry about everything you'd say to yourself well there's no way I'm gonna be as happy and if I had and if I asked you you'd probably say you're less happy because you have more stress and uncertainty and those things are real but I'll bet you there's way less of a change than anybody would have predicted I'll bet that a lot of people are just getting through it just fine yeah now the people who are literally worrying about eating or not getting certified but I'll bet you a lot of people are I

[5:21]

but I'll bet you a lot of people are I would like to give a shout out to the task force for satisfying by need for good explanations of where we are on test kits now as you know I have I've just been railing railing about the task force not giving us useful information because it's at a context they were just giving us random numbers and stuff 10,000 ventilators 15,000 masks and we couldn't tell what was that enough is that too much and then we ended up with triple the number of ventilators partly because the projections were were overcooked but partly I think also because we didn't have good visibility of who could do what and how fast and what we need and all that but if I if I had to give a grade to the administration for ventilators let's say let's say we're just separating the report card and we say you know ventilators I think I'd give

[6:23]

you know ventilators I think I'd give them an A+ for ventilators because given that the requirements of the government were pretty much if you know in my opinion the requirements were at all costs don't let anybody die because they didn't have a ventilator and if that means making too many of them I think that was the choice that we made so the fact that we made too many and we have to give it away I think I think you just have to say that's a home run because they started making up in the context of thinking and they might actually need them if we have too many well it's good news so I'll give him an a-plus on the ventilator it's actually very impressive it also looks like we're not going to run out of anything else as far as I can tell so that looks pretty good too looks like we won't run out of anything and but I was always unhappy with not knowing it as it happened now the the testing facilities are the other big

[7:24]

testing facilities are the other big wildcard and I felt that until today we were not getting any information that was useful in the in terms of the public saying oh it looks like we'll get out of this in a month or a week or whatever you seemed like we needed to know where we were on testing because that was the base of it all but the task force did a great job today and they brought out they brought a some young guy Brad somebody who just nailed it like and the whole time he was talking I kept thinking where you been hiding this guy this guy was perfect he seemed to have a complete command of you know where we were with test kits and supplies and stuff and then the the other the other folks I don't remember all their names but the generals and the Admirals and stuff and I thought they did a really good job of breaking it down you know what's where and it took a while to get the distinction that sometimes they were talking about the test facility and sometimes they were

[8:26]

test facility and sometimes they were talking about the physical supplies that you need to put a sample you know and and send it to the lab so it looks like we were in better shape we're in good shape in terms of tests facilities and machines and they seem to be everywhere you would need them all over the states and we were less good shape or at least have been on the supplies this you know swabs and stuff but it looks like you know if you believe the taskforce report it looks like we're very very quickly gonna get a good handle on that but the bottom line which the president and the taskforce said is that the states already have enough to do testing to get to phase one and that seems like the minimum requirement if you have enough to get to phase one and that's why we're all shooting for it's not perfect you know we don't like to have a way more tests but it turns out even if you had I forget who said this but it sounded

[9:28]

forget who said this but it sounded smart they even if you had way way more tests you would still be so far away from having enough tests to just test everybody that you really couldn't get there but if you did test everybody how often do you have to retest you know so so somebody who's somebody who's pointing out that you really can't guess so many tests that you just like nail it down because you've tested the crap out of it that's sort of an impractical gold I don't know if that's true but somebody smarter said that but rather you go for whatever's the the weakest you know biggest leverage the the best leverage and I guess I believe this is testing the people who are the same in the environment with people were infected so first responders and nursing home people then somehow somehow that's going to be the best targeted use of the test I hope that's enough but I would say this was the best I think the best

[10:30]

this was the best I think the best taskforce report and in my opinion showed a great deal of competence now my favorite part about it was when I think it was CNN correspondent asked the question of Mike Pence and said hey if if you say that that the states have all the testing that they need why did the governor of Maryland have to go to South Korea to get to try to buy supplies and now the first thing you need to know is that the supplies they were Buy were the part that was in short short supply it was only the testing facilities that are quite generously everywhere and have lots of capacity so the governor was talking about supplies that they got from South Korea and if so CNN they asked that question and pence says how can you put up the Maryland map and within seconds there's this big visual aid of all the testing centers in

[11:31]

visual aid of all the testing centers in Maryland just and if you weren't following along and you didn't know that the question was more about the supplies than it was the testing facilities it looked like it looked like pens just totally dunked on her and then he sort of changed the subject and she I know she didn't follow up I don't know if she didn't understand that he wasn't really answering her question directly but in any event it looks like even Maryland gossip supplies so I think I think everybody's okay so there's that but I I I guess I was impressed because you don't see somebody using a PowerPoint slide deck that effectively where somebody asks a question you just slap this map up there and you're like next question even though it didn't really answer a question all right what's up with oil prices huh what is up with oil prices I know you have to understand oil

[12:35]

prices I know you have to understand oil prices obviously it's very temporary because almost immediately the you know the supply will will change so I would assume it a little drifts back up but man what what are the odds that you're in the airline business and fuel goes to so cheap that it would be the best time to be in the airline business except oops can't be in the airline business either
so here's a yeah yeah no one asked that question oh so Ken Burns PBS is releasing a whole bunch of Ken Burns films for teachers and students to to use for the online in the history courses which is like the best idea ever because this is really where online education is going it's going to be like a Hollywood production so that when you're watching it at home it's way

[13:36]

you're watching it at home it's way better than being in a class and listening to a boring teacher and listening or watching the Ken Burns History movies are really good I mean that's that's a pretty solid way to teach history if you ask me so I think I think you're gonna see free college you there will be free college but it'll be online college alright so here's a question for you I know just enough about economics to be confused about stuff why is everybody saying Kim Jong and has some issues is there some news about Kim Jong that I'm missing because I just looked at the news before I turn it on I didn't see anything about that alright so here's the question if the 20% of the people who are unemployed in rough terms are probably or for the most

[14:36]

rough terms are probably or for the most part they're the people at the lower end of the economic spectrum and there's still a lot of cubicle dwellers and millionaires oh wow people are reporting that Kim Jong un is actually so that's really a thing unless this is the greatest prank ever because you're already you're all saying the same thing all right let me check it in real-time I literally just oh whoa in grave danger after surgery what do we know about that you all know more than I do about that so there was a speculation because he wasn't in public and it's tightly controls we don't know number of so it's basically rumors which doesn't mean it's not true but how does anybody know all right so he had a key and he had a cyst removed from his ankles and somebody says it's easy to be wrong on this one said yeah

[15:37]

easy to be wrong on this one said yeah so some experts that it's easy to be wrong on this one so I wouldn't bet on Kim jong-un being brain-dead but we'll see we'll see anyway here's the thought experiment if the people who mostly are unemployed were also the ones who unfortunately were the lowest end of the economic system how much how much money do we still have in the system should we get back to work in a month or so how much money would we still have to start stimulating demand so if you assume that the there was 20% unemployment so let's just say the 20% of the public really is just flat broke and they'd be lucky they'd be lucky to get back on their feet and just sort of break even but they're not going to be generating any kind of you know demand

[16:38]

generating any kind of you know demand by you know buying a lot of extra stuff so the people who lost here's where I'm going to this the people who lost their jobs while it's a big scary horrible number at a tragedy by any description it also is not a large part of the total amount of money in the country that drives demand is it this boy so this is sort of a statement slash question because I'm a little uncertain if I'm missing something big but you know we talk endlessly about the the top 1% owning most of the the wealth and let's let's say the top 20% owns 80% of the wealth I don't know what if one of the exact numbers top 30% pick a number the the point will be the same and the the point is this they're at the top the people who had all the wealth even if their wealth is compressed by a third I

[17:39]

their wealth is compressed by a third I think that is what will happen to me so I think my net worth is probably down by 1/3 but probably not enough to radically change my you know my normal consumer level you know I'm gonna get as many haircuts and you know probably go out to dinner the same amount so the point is if the people at the top even though they they had a you know great contraction in their wealth just like everybody else they still have plenty left so as soon as they can buy things do they not have a lot of money to go buy things if it's true that the people at the top always had all the money anyway so here's the question when we assume that the economy might turn into a depression you could break that down to specific problems like credit and being able to you know eat right I mean the thing that will be

[18:40]

eat right I mean the thing that will be broken when we go back to you know when we get back I don't think it will be just demand because I think demand might come back faster than you think because the people with money still have some at least they have enough to drive drive demand I would think yeah but the big problem is so many people are going to be behind in bills and missed payments but I think we can solve that it seems to me that we would be able to fairly cleverly solve the credit problem either by making exceptions or saying hey everybody who went through this just push all of your bills ahead three months you know and we'll if that causes some company to go bankrupt a little backstop them for a while you know there's probably some clever ways we can work through it but I am expecting that will we might come out of it way better way better than the most

[19:40]

way better way better than the most optimistic predictions and I think it could be because of that because because nothing's broken now here's the other thing that I think could not be modeled so when the prediction models figuring out how bad things are going to be here's something that can't be modeled the effectiveness are for communications in 2020 in 2020 anybody who knows anything that's important to help underpin Demick if it's known anywhere it's pretty much immediately known everywhere because good ideas spreads pretty quickly and so we have a because of our good communication we have a society that is super self-healing so you could you could take almost anything and throw it into this you know big ball of civilization and it could break just crazy just break stuff break your whole economy destroy buildings everything but as long as the

[20:42]

buildings everything but as long as the the humans still could communicate our ability to use that communication to quickly adapt and make plans and move resources and stuff it is somewhat breathtaking so I think our recovery doesn't account for how well we communicate and that it creates almost a superbeing with self-healing powers and how much money they're still left and the people who will drive demand like they probably usually do because the people who didn't have money weren't driving a lot of demand all right I tweeted a an article by an MD Peter Atia atti a if you want to look for him he's Peter Atia MD on Twitter and it was a really good article and I'll try to capture the gist of it and he was trying to figure out if there's some way we could tell now or ever

[21:43]

could tell now or ever whether what we experienced was that the models were all wrong or that we were super effective in mitigating like why is it that the models were so wrong because we were so good or the models were so wrong or is it a you know a little bit of both and if so you know which is the dominant part real important to know that right I mean we really really want to know and he suggests that we can actually know that Sunday because when we can we can test enough and we're not there yet but I think we'll reasonably get there maybe you know two months or something we should be able to figure out how many asymptomatic people there are so once you have a good so Wow Kim juggling is brain dead according to NBC all right well well I'll check that out as soon as soon as this is over I don't think anybody knows what that means right but I wouldn't rule out

[22:45]

right but I wouldn't rule out coronavirus wouldn't rule that out wow I wonder who's in charge this could be really interesting all right and not in a good way I don't think it'll be war but it's gonna be interesting times anyway Peter attea says that we will actually be able to test and we will actually have an answer so isn't that interesting somebody says Katy tur deleted her tweet does that mean we're not sure CNN is Republican at your comment CNN is reporting Kim Jong is in critical all right so I guess the thing we can know for sure is we don't know right sister a botched medical procedure you say a
botched I wonder if it was botched how botched was it anyway so will we will someday know the answer whether we overreacted because the bottles or

[23:47]

overreacted because the bottles or because or we were just really super effective well now I just want to go look into that because that looks like this will be the big story so we're up to 41 thousand deaths in the United States from the coronavirus the model that had been lowered to 60 I don't see how we're gonna stop in 60 do you believe that we're so we have 41,000 and the model was lowered down to 60 you think we're gonna go from 41,000 already and that by the end of the year were still gonna be below 60 or even a 16 does that seem reasonable to you now I get that you know you're gonna level off and stuff but we just sort of pushing those deaths into the future I don't really get how we would expect like you know I'm no no expert

[24:50]

like you know I'm no no expert biology modeler but I know no modeler but it seems to be almost impossible that we wouldn't shoot past that sixty thousand number because we'll be going back to work and of course they'll be flare-ups I mean I think we're actually gonna hit a hundred right at our current rate I would think that going back to work would put you over a hundred thousand easily I would think that would still make the models wrong I think but I think that's where it's going all right I said if 5,000 people die Trump loses reelection well you know thinks whenever I make a prediction about the election you should always hear a voice in your head that says unless something changes and then this then the second voice says right after that and something will change cuz it always does so any any

[25:52]

change cuz it always does so any any predictions are sort of absurd because too much is going to change between now and then but I believe that because people would feel so happy if it were under a hundred thousand that that would pretty much guarantee election if it's over a hundred it's kind of it's gonna kind of look like Trump was in the the governors were right to you know treat this as a serious problem so there's lots of ways that Trump can win this because if it turns out to kill more people than and I hate to put that in political but if it turns out to be worse than than the people who were not worried thought they're gonna say oh I guess Trump was right all along it was pretty bad so I think the worst it would the worse it is up to a point actually helps him in other words put numbers on this if I had to say let's say it let's say a

[26:54]

if I had to say let's say it let's say a capped at a a hundred and fifty thousand just for a conversation that's not a prediction but let's say at the end of the year there were by election day there were 150,000 that one of the things that that would tell you is that it was just as bad as you thought because we wouldn't even be done that would tell you that by the end of the year maybe it's not 200 or something so I think Trump would actually look better even if death count is higher up to a point because then people would say okay he's he he was you know being pretty tough on this yeah he seemed a little too optimistic in that first but you know now we know that it wasn't a hoax now what what if he goes the other way what if this 41,000 just like you know we're so good at it it just goes and stops below 60,000 yeah we hope it does

[27:56]

stops below 60,000 yeah we hope it does what if it does will that will people say yay president Trump you really nailed it you did the best that you could possibly do probably not because even if we've got these you know other tests to find out you know did the mitigation work or where the models wrong or was it both even with that if there's a small number or dead people are gonna say it was all a hoax and he closed the economy for nothing even though that doesn't make sense because we don't know what would have happened if we hadn't done it go either way all right I think we can go check on kim jeong-hoon well I would I would you know I'll tell ya I somebody's asking me if I'm stoned no not at the moment as matter of fact I'm tired but I'm not stoned

[29:00]

I've got a feeling Joe Biden might have an announcement this week I would say you know every day that goes by that you don't see him in public makes it more of a certainty that that he's being talked down in the race well we don't know as if there's been any decision about who would replace him or even how they would handle that I mean you know there was a report that Biden was starting to pick his cabinet picks no not his cabinet he was there was a report that Biden was trying to pick his transition team for when he won and I thought to myself I don't think that's happening I don't think I don't think Joe Biden is picking a transition team for when he wins I don't think that's happening maybe but I don't think so all right well I will see you in the morning let's go check the news and see what's what