Episode 920 Scott Adams: Predicting the Next Chapter in the Virus Saga

Date: 2020-04-18 | Duration: 23:33

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: Anti-Trump media starving for something to criticize Huffington Post slimy headline Opening up date estimates Kim Jong Un not seen in a week

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## Transcript

[0:12]

hey everybody come on in it's been 11 hours since the last time I was with you and I think that's too long yeah it's time there's not much happening today so I'm good it takes four questions it's been Groundhog Day every day you wake up and you say do we still have a virus yep looks like it's gonna be another one of those days but this one will start down a little bit better than Benny because you're gonna be taking the simultaneous lip with me and all you need is a cup of mugged or a glass of tanker chelators died in a canteen jug or flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine of the day the thing that makes everything better it's called the cycle CD is that but it happens now mmm delicious so let's talk about the things that are happening so face there's a

[1:14]

that are happening so face there's a little test of Facebook users so Facebook users were offered a hundred and two dollars if they would just give up Facebook for a little while and then they tested to see how they did it turns out with that giving up Facebook is really good for your health so the people were reported improved subjective well-being so apparently we now have at least a little bit of scientific data that says Facebook's bad for your health did you somebody says CPAP but not respirators work if you have a link for that send it to me because I think I know what you're talking about but I don't know if it's true so we need a fact check somebody's saying that the CPAP machines might be better than the ventilators which I don't rule out as possible because these insulators were considered maybe not the be-all end-all they might have been the wrong pressure

[2:16]

they might have been the wrong pressure and all that stuff yeah why why hundred and two dollars I don't know it's a good question so you've heard about the patients who had corona virus and then they recovered but then some number that maybe two percent show that they have the infection still and so the researchers say what you're supposed to have antibodies you're not supposed to be able to get reinfected but here's the good news turns out you shouldn't be as worried about that as baby you were because there's at least one scientist doctor researcher types who thinks there should not be a source of worry and here's his argument because there are several possible explanations of why these people are testing positive and of these several possible explanations most of them are harmless for example there could be remnants of the virus that are still in people and the test is

[3:17]

still in people and the test is sensitive so it picks it up but a remnant of the virus would not be you know something to worry about doesn't mean you have the virus it just means you have something like garbage from the virus a little leftover so that's one possibility the other possibilities were let's say just an error with the test so it could be that the test is too sensitive meaning it's too good so it's picking up more than the virus it's picking up the debris from the virus but the other is that the test is just not perfect so maybe if the test has some false positives you might be thinking you're retesting people that are positive again but not although it seems like that would be the easiest one to test right who would get out here and make a long comment about it being boring just to get blocked what's the point of that all right yeah there may be other issues of the testers

[4:17]

there may be other issues of the testers so here's my current updated opinion I had been thinking that this herd immunity wasn't wasn't really guaranteed it
it still not guaranteed so there's still questions to be answered but at least one one researcher scientist who's close to this thinks we shouldn't even worry about it that we'll have immunity so even if 2% of the people or even if some people didn't have immunity there's probably enough people who do to get her immunity eventually but other people warn hey it's not so easy this isn't like a regular virus you could get it and recover but it might take years for your organs to recover so apparently this is pretty bad stuff you know you could get better but it might take you years to actually be better that's pretty ugly so we'll keep an eye on that

[5:18]

we'll keep an eye on that now the anti-trump and media broadly speaking they they don't have much material to work with lately because it's not a normal time and the president keeps taking the advice of experts which is ruining all the fun every time the new president takes the advice of experts the experts back them up
up it just takes all the fun out of the anti-trump people because like you keep down following X okay you're taking the experts advice but but the next time you're not following the experts okay this time you're also taking the experts advice but we're gonna get you we're gonna get you one of these days and so far the president has definitely stayed on the right side of at least science so he's agreeing with the experts at least to that degree so we're watching the anti-trump press desperately trying to find things to criticize the president for because that's their business model if they don't criticize the press their audience will go somewhere else

[6:18]

audience will go somewhere else so they have to they have to criticize the president so here's what they've come up with today they've decided to bunch up unrelated things and try to make a story on it so they've bunched together dr. drew dr. oz and dr. Phil now I'd love to know what dr. Drew thinks about that or any of them I guess what they think about being lumped together but the the unfairness of that to lump three completely different people with three completely different situations together that's not fair that is so not fair and sir well so this was on that I was asked where was this this was on CNN and this was a headline Fox News keeps inviting TV doctors in here who say crazy things crazy things which one of the crazy things I not sure what crazy

[7:19]

the crazy things I not sure what crazy means so dr. drew as I had apologized for underplaying the seriousness of the virus but keep in mind he was under playing it when the greatest experts in the world were telling us not to be that worried so dr. drew correctly you know upgraded his opinion apologized for getting it wrong in the beginning but he wasn't that far from the experts it's not like it's crazy it's only it only looks crazy if you're looking at it you know in the rear view mirror and you take out the context the context at the time was a lot of people were on the same page who who were experts then there's the dr. oz one is this crazy dr. oz suggested that children would be a safe class of people to go back to school and of course that's a key to getting people you know the adults to go back to work because you need the kids to be taken care of essentially but he

[8:20]

to be taken care of essentially but he worded it wrong so he just worded it wrong and so the people were looking for trouble they heard it the way they wanted to hear it and it sounds like he was being cold about the possibility of children dying now you don't have to have a very high IQ to know that dr. oz did not go on television and say something cold about children dying okay that just didn't even happen but of course they twist his words until till his sounds like maybe he sent something like that if you squint really hard and reduce your IQ by 50% so first of all dr. oz was just talking about tough choices somebody's gotta go first right you can't send the parents to work and leave the kids at home if there are young kids so he's just making an adult observation that you'd want to do it and you know a certain order and this might be a good order and that's it there's nothing crazy about that at all but they turned it into that then dr. Phil was really

[9:21]

it into that then dr. Phil was really just guilty of the most universal bad comparison though in the world of a regular flu or other other problems that are not viral to this one but and that was just bad analysis but it's the same bad analysis that's practically universal so what which parts of these were crazy these were three people who had three opinions but none of is crazy it's not even close to crazy so that's all they got for that apparently Japan is having a new surge in covet 19 cases and I only point that out because people had used them as an example of people who got it under control easily and therefore maybe it wasn't such a big problem because hey look Japan took care of it so easily well it turns out depend did not take care of it so easily because it's surging again we hope they get that under control but we are we're definitely learning stuff by watching

[10:22]

definitely learning stuff by watching other countries and what they're doing
Huffington Post again not having enough fodder to work with so you know they need to criticize Trump and anybody on your side so here's what they came up with listen to how bad this headline is all right so here's the headline for the Huffington Post right-wing economist has been accused of racism before if you hear the if you see this headline that a right-wing economist has been accused of racism before what do you think of that guy well you think he's definitely a racist right you don't even have to read the story you're like well if he's been accused of races before even if this one isn't true maybe the other one is and maybe if the other one wasn't true probably this one isn't you know one of the odds that one person would get accused of racism twice unless there's something there you know a little smoke there's fire sort of thing so that's how the

[11:24]

sort of thing so that's how the Huffington Post you know plays their slander they they give you a headline where it leads you to believe there's got to be something here I mean there's there's some meat here so let's dig into this right and who was it was it Steve Morton The Economist who there's a trump supporter and this is why he's in trouble for so remember the headline he's been accused of racism before so that headline suggests that this story is an accusation of racism right because the headline is he's been accused of racism before how else can you interpret that then this stories about his potentially being racist right so let's take in what was he doing that was so racist this time that would remind you of that last night right here's what he did he was talking about the the social distance protesters who were protesting

[12:26]

distance protesters who were protesting having to stay home in those states were they don't think it's a bigger problem and here's what he said I call these people modern-day Rosa Parks they are protesting against injustice and loss of liberties Oh Stephen Moore sorry I had his name wrong Stephen Moore and uh and I don't know how to interpret that sentence I call these people modern-day Rosa Parks except as a very big compliment there was a Parks yes sir any other way to interpret this other than a gigantic compliment and respect respect and admiration for Rosa Parks now in you could certainly argue that it is silly to compare these these protesters to Rosa Parks but if I told you let's say I said you know so-and-so is the Michael Jordan of

[13:28]

know so-and-so is the Michael Jordan of I know being a senator if I said somebody was the Michael Jordan of being a senator would you say oh my god that's the little racist no you would say the whole reason you're using Michael Jordan is because you know arguably is the greatest of all time it is literally a sign of admiration and respect for the person used as the example the Michael Jordan of you know being a dry cleaner or whatever likewise if you're gonna use somebody as your symbol of like the ultimate respected you know credible person that's really the opposite of racism like that says that's as far as you can get from being racist holding up you know somebody who is like the you know one of the greatest icons of the african-american experience you know

[14:29]

african-american experience you know somebody universally respected for being the you know the the the unknown person who changed the world how in the world is this racist it can't be further from racist it literally can't be further it's just mind-boggling but how many people read the what the Huffington Post and read that and go yeah yep it looks like he's insulting Rosa Parks by comparing her to people who showed up with ar-15s and in this state oh my god what is wrong with people I was looking for changing the topic here I was looking for some deadlines on the states you know I said before early on when the whole topic of closing stuff down came up I said that the president needs to give us a date because even if that day gets later revised we're all more comfortable with

[15:30]

revised we're all more comfortable with a date now he gave that April 15 date then he had to revise it and I think maybe that that felt like an embarrassment or you know a mistake I don't think it was I think it was exactly the right thing to do even though it got revised because remember from the start I said you should have a date even if you know you're gonna revise it because the public needs to needs to focus on something even if it's changed and I'm uncomfortable having the state's all make their decisions because the longer the longer we go I mean they obviously they have to be involved in the decision but I'd like to to come up with an opening time much sooner even if it changes because having having a date in your head makes it way easier to manage your isolation you know imagine being in isolation and not knowing when

[16:32]

being in isolation and not knowing when it's going to end versus being in isolation and knowing that in nine days it's over those are not the same one of them can make you crazy and the other is like I'll just find some way to keep busy for nine days and I'll be good it's a completely different mindset and we're experiencing as much as we're experiencing a health crisis and economic crisis it's a psychological crisis too and the psychological part you know informs the rest of it as well so I think they get to psychology right we need some kind of dates that we can argue about plan for feel bad about you know just interact with we just we just need a little bit of solidness and dr. Chris Murphy Murray who was one of the modelers you know one of the big models he was on he was CNN and he was talking about generally what he thought for reopening dates so he thought that maybe a state like Hawaii that has the least

[17:32]

a state like Hawaii that has the least covet problem so far he was thinking that maybe the first part of May like May first or so they might start opening up but that the worst-hit places the hospital of June and he sees a lot of other stuff little you know mid to late Bay now that's the first time I saw anybody give an estimate who knew what they were talking about and even though you could say well those models are incorrect I don't really care that the models are incorrect I care that I had a estimated time and so I could look at those times it's like okay we're not I'm in California so we're not as good as Hawaii but we're not as bad as New York so that would put us in that middle zone you know mid May maybe but we're California so maybe we'll be a little more aggressive and staying close but it looks to me like that at least bounds that I'm feeling like mid to late May

[18:34]

that I'm feeling like mid to late May would be a California time so that makes me feel better and I wish that I wish that the task force would do something similar which is to say in public each of your states will be different but it's gonna be somewhere between May 1st and we think June 15th you know if your hot spot it's the latter if you're not it's the former and everybody else is gonna be somewhere in that middle ground that would make a big difference to the psychology here's an interesting factoid Kim jong-un has not been seen in a week oh and apparently there have been at least a few events that he typically would always be too because he has some some kind of a traditional value in North Korea something about his relatives etc and so he's conspicuously missing it's obvious it's obvious that there's some kind of choice or inability to be in public so the speculation is

[19:35]

to be in public so the speculation is anything from he's uh he was trying to put some distance between himself and the events because the events were about his family and he wants to be his own person well I doubt that I don't think that explanation the other one was they're just trying to keep him safe because they don't want him around other people because he might get kovat I think that's possible here's the other possibility Kim jong-un is exactly the kind of person who dies from coronavirus am i right now you know I want to say this as delicately as possible but kim janggun does not look like the the symbol of good health he's got some issues I don't know what they are might be diabetes but he's certainly got some weight issues and lots of you know rumors about other issues so at the very least I think he smokes although that may be good we don't know smoking could be good or bad we'll have to wait and see but if Kim Jung got coronavirus

[20:40]

and see but if Kim Jung got coronavirus I feel like he wouldn't make it at least the odds wouldn't be that good well I guess even let's say his age at his age even if he's not super healthy I think actually he would mostly survive right so in you know in theory you would you would survive even if you got it but you do wonder if there's anybody in his circle or anywhere anybody anywhere China let's say but I want to slip a little coronavirus just

[23:31]

because my my assumption was that he probably just never talks about it