Episode 919 Scott Adams: Let’s Talk About All the Things. And I Take Your Questions.

Date: 2020-04-18 | Duration: 1:01:43

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: Stanford study indicates some good coronavirus news, maybe Coronavirus toolbox, a little of this, a little of that PPP out of funds…why? Sanjay Gupta’s expression during Biden interview

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## Transcript

[0:08]

bum-bum-bum bum-bum-bum bum-bum-bum hey everybody come on in here we got coronavirus stuff to talk about I know surprising are we ever gonna have any different news do you notice that all the other news just sort of stopped even the news they shouldn't be stopping you know things you would you would assume would not stop everything stopping well let's talk about what's happened all right DJ doctor funk juice good to see you
are you here some things that's happening the biggest news is there's this study out of Stanford that's not peer-reviewed and it uses a testing kit that is now FDA approved so those are the two caveats and it seemed to show that there was more more people had the antibodies in at least Santa

[1:11]

had the antibodies in at least Santa Clara County in California then previously believed maybe two to five percent which would suggest that the amount of infections is way more than we think which which if there are way more infections than we do about because they were asymptomatic it would indicate that the actual death rate of the people who get it could be in the vicinity of wait for it their regular annual flu oh don't start celebrating because you don't want to be one of those people who says that 10 times 1 is different than 1 times 10 here's what I mean what is worse a virus that kills most of the people they get it uh but doesn't spread very far or a virus that doesn't kill very many people in all just barely a fraction of the people who get it ever

[2:12]

a fraction of the people who get it ever die
die blood is really viral which one's worse
and the answer is it depends it depends how viral the one is and it depends how deadly the other one is and how not viral this but there are two variables so we have determined that the corona virus maybe maybe is less deadly as a percentage but by all reason you would also assume that it's probably more viral than a normal virus so the death count could still be you know six times higher all things being equal even if it's only the same amount deadly as the flu but there's more to the story there's always more to the story did I mention that the study is not peer-reviewed well that's one thing to consider did I mention I think I did

[3:13]

consider did I mention I think I did that the test is not fda-approved which doesn't mean it doesn't work just there's one less reason for you to be comfortable with it there as a belong street of Austin says on Twitter there are a couple things you should at least be aware of number one the way they recruited people as they ran Facebook ads to bring people in now if you saw a Facebook ad to test just to see if you had grown a virus and didn't know it and you had had symptoms at some point let's say the last several months because how many of us think we had the corona virus quite a few of us right most of us didn't but a lot of us thought we did anyway people who might have had the symptoms and thought you know I wonder what that was wouldn't you think they would be a little bit more likely at least statistically more likely to

[4:14]

least statistically more likely to answer the ad because if you were sure you didn't have it well you might you might volunteer for the study because you're just a good person and you want the study to do well and it's good for society but you would be a little bit more likely if you suspected you had had some symptoms so one thing to look at is that it could be it's not a random sample it could be the people's self selected for their own suspicion that they had something and maybe they're more likely to be you know doesn't mean most of them are right because we know that most of them probably don't have corona virus even if they think they did but it could buy us bias adjusted enough to get this small difference of a few percentage but here's the other thing apparently the known the known inaccuracy of the test so these tests tend to be not perfect so that's a

[5:16]

tend to be not perfect so that's a problem that goes across all of these tests and this particular test there's some indication that the the number of false positives is roughly in the range of exactly how many people they found so one possibility it may be the peer review would get to the bottom of this one possibility is that the amount of false positives completely explains the the result that's like the could - all of it and that's the possibility now I'm not saying that's for sure what's going on here I'm just saying that Balaji pointed out that you have to at least consider that if you know the accuracy the test has you know this you're sort of in this low few percentage range and that's also the number that's also the range that you found extra people with growing a virus well you gotta at least ask the question so I would say that I

[6:17]

ask the question so I would say that I would not put I would not put strong weight on that Stanford study that would indicate a lot more people have it and that therefore it's less not any more deadly than seasonal flu which is bad enough of course so that's it maybe that's what wait and see well we keep getting more in a donal and half study and preliminary study information on red desert here and hydroxychloroquine in a perfect world there is non conclusive information that if you're really bad off the REM des of here does a good job and there's also inconclusive information that if you give somebody the hide the hydroxychloroquine really early they never get to the point where they would need anything else so in a perfect world we have both so you could imagine that given the

[7:18]

you could imagine that given the hydroxyl chloroquine early and it reduces the number of people who ever need to be hospitalized but if they are hospitalized then the red desert here comes in and does the rest now of course it's not going to save everybody but you could imagine that with all of our mitigation if you added that to you know testing and you know maybe some people have some antibodies that make a difference we don't know maybe the the convalescent blood serum thing works who knows but now we've got a number of tests that all have the same quality if you noticed that everything all of our tools have something in common they just sort of work a little bit right that none of them are you know a kill shot it's like well you know it'd probably help if you did some of this but you know it would also help if you if you did a little this may be a little this

[8:20]

did a little this may be a little this kind of testing yeah a little bit of taking temperature and you really have to sort of add it all together and we don't really have all the assets in place even to do all this stuff we're only getting to the point where we can do enough testing getting to the point where we could do a real
that's just getting to the point where we can be confident about these drugs being useful and not deadly or we're sorry just a few weeks away from a lot of stuff at least in terms of knowledge
but the timing is going to be beyond interesting and not a good way because as you know several states are beginning to rebel so people are starting to protest and I think at least in the case of Michigan it's because there was a little bit of a ridiculous overreach about what people could and could not do you know I think people are willing to obey obey the direction of their

[9:23]

obey obey the direction of their government if the government has a plausible reason you know if your government says look this is gonna be really hard I know it's gonna be a burden it's gonna be a sacrifice but here's the reason you're doing it it's a good reason then the citizens look in that look at that they say ah I hate I hate that it's you know I'm the one you know not because the sacrifice tends to be not uniformly distributed so you could imagine a citizen saying I hate this I just hate that I'm the one who's gonna you know take it in the butt and other people are now so much but I see the point you know I can see the argument that the government's making that's not what happened that's not what happened I don't think people could see the the argument for why they couldn't walk in the park I don't think people saw the argument for why they couldn't buy I don't garden seeds I'm not even sure that story's real but people

[10:23]

sure that story's real but people thought it was real so I guess that makes it real enough so because the government did not make an argument that the people could say yeah I see what you're going for that makes sense they lost credibility and now we have protests in the streets how bad will the protests get well I think there's a real productive tension happening right now and
and productive tension is this there's no right answer the people have preferences and those preferences often fit their situation so certainly a young person who needs a paycheck I have a different opinion that a rich old person etc so you know you have this power and preference battle that's playing out but I would argue this very it's a healthy competition so I believe that the people who are pushing to open up have good intentions and it probably is good to

[11:26]

intentions and it probably is good to push the government to keep that pressure on so I'm in favor of the protests oh not only because I think they're legitimate but because it helps the process puts a little pressure on the government and I think that's good now what do you make of the fact that the Congress can figure had a vote on the rest of the money that's needed to to finish up the Paycheck protection program so a whole bunch of companies that are just like the companies that did apply early and got money there's a whole bunch of other ones who just couldn't get in it was too clogged up and now the money's gone can we put up with that these businesses are good just be decimated because the government decided it wanted to tweak the bill and add some things make it better and then other people disagree I don't care I don't care what the reason is you know Chuck and Nancy you got reasons I don't care I don't care all I know is that you

[12:29]

care I don't care all I know is that you could have voted for whatever those checks could be going out and people could be getting helped it's not happening that's what I care about I don't want to I don't wanna hear about the excuses the reasons how you're making it perfect and you know this would be the good time to do it I don't care you just not doing your job and here's what I say about that when your government is being credible and transparent and honest you can say to yourself I will sacrifice for that does that make sense when your government is not meeting the the minimum level of competence and I think you could say that about Congress right now the minimum level of competence is for them to vote for the thing that wait wait for it they all agree on it would be one thing to not be able to get something passed when there's actual disagreement but they can't pass a bill that they agree on because they're trying to some of them are trying to put

[13:30]

trying to some of them are trying to put some extra stuff on it but the stuff they agree on they can't get voted in in an emergency in an emergency they can't vote on the things they agree on that's the lowest level of expectation you know beyond showing up you know I suppose you know good attendance would be the basic thing but after attendance or whatever the digital version of that is after that the minimum is that you should be able to vote for the things you all agree on if you can't get that done well anyway the point being there is some point at which a government reduces his credibility to the point where the citizens will not and should not heed its guidelines and I would argue we're getting perilously close to that and I would go further and say that if you were one of the one of the businesses that couldn't get in you know couldn't

[14:30]

that couldn't get in you know couldn't get your money while other people did and the government is just forcing you to stay closed and isn't giving you nothing in return I think that from an ethical perspective you have the right to reopen your business now of course that could give you some legal problems etc but I would I would go but I would buy your product I will go in your store so if anybody opens up in in violation of the government's requirements you can count on having at least one customer so I any story that wants to violate the the government's guidelines specifically because they didn't get the PPP I'm gonna say that is ethically acceptable you know I'm assuming that they would take some you know steps wear masks and do the smart of stuff and I would say that I would buy their product now I don't expect that to happen and here's the problem there are a lot of ways that the public can protest that

[15:32]

ways that the public can protest that might be meaningful but when the when the choke point is businesses and their physical businesses it doesn't take much police to shut down a business it takes a lot of police to shut down let's say a million people protesting but if you're just one store owner it's just one policeman who walks in and says you know this is a violation I'm gonna write down your name and you're gonna get a gigantic fine you know and if you don't pay your fine you'll have bad credit yeah if you have bad credit you're out of business and the store owner is like ah I don't want to deal with this and the cops has a head you better get a lawyer there's a store okay I'm out look can I just close you know can you can you throw away the ticket if I just closed and the cop will say yeah that's all I really want so it takes a very small enforcement arm to make enough of a threat to close down all the

[16:33]

a threat to close down all the businesses and so as a practical matter I don't see anything like a mass protest where people just open their businesses against the government's wishes but if it does happen I will be happy to shop there I just don't know that they can't alright it looks like some kind of big decision may have been made by the Democrats to get rid of Biden because even see and then turned on them so CNN's got a big article about his the allegations of him meeting a alleged victim back in the nineties and apparently a number of top Democrats are being asked to comment on it you know spur nice Anders and Elizabeth Warren and stuff so it turns out that it's not embargoed anymore so the Democrats it looks like the let's say the the protective coating that the Democrats have in their media the little protected

[17:36]

have in their media the little protected media situation it looks like there's some kind of decision that must have happened I don't know if they had a meeting about it but maybe collectively they've just decided that they are going to talk about this and for all practical purposes if Biden wasn't already you know hopelessly impossible in terms of a candidate this is kind of the final nail in the coffin so there might be something afoot it's sort of that it is signaling to us that the people who would need to support a Biden candidacy are indeed not all right
see so I guess Trump went after Nancy Pelosi so you you probably all saw the footage of her showing her big expensive refrigerators and all the ice cream she's anything well well everybody's dying in the streets and of course it was super tone-deaf and she wasn't

[18:37]

was super tone-deaf and she wasn't reading the room and stuff but more importantly where is she is it Nancy Pelosi the sort of person you're supposed to be hearing from in an emergency you know I'm glad we're hearing from the taskforce and I'm so glad we're seeing plenty of Trump and ouchy you know and all those people and I think by the way they're doing terrific in terms of communicating with it with the public in terms of time spent I still think they're terrible at communicating the specifics but uh where's Nancy Pelosi I mean there's it's sort of conspicuous in dismissing now let me bring you back bring you back do you remember how worked up I was when I would be watching these task force's task force meetings and they would spew raw numbers of how many ventilators they made and how many gloves and stuff and I kept screaming that's useless unless you

[19:38]

kept screaming that's useless unless you tell us how many you need it means nothing to us to say have you made how many you bought how many delivered it means nothing how many do you need is that most of it isn't okay so you heard me said that a million times so now we find out that we somehow increased production enough to make three times as many ventilators as we need it and we hear that there were smart people in the administration President Trump certainly was among them who said I don't think you need so many ventilators right this is a story we're hearing that there were people who would be getting you know in the administration the task force they get these requests from the states for you know thousands and thousands of ventilators and they would say no no I don't think you need all those ventilators you know first of all because it's just way too many and secondly maybe we could you know move them around to places indeed um so you don't all need your own I'm out now

[20:38]

don't all need your own I'm out now here's here's the problem we're hearing now that President Trump and others knew it was too many ventilators if the public had known that let's say that the the task force had given us you know more transparent numbers here's how much they say that they're gonna need here's how many we have is it not likely that we would have seen it - would the public not have said wait a minute why are we asking for all those ventilators that doesn't seem to add up I think we made too many ventilators because we did not have a managed situation and when I say managed I like to use my little saying that if you're not measuring things you're not managing it because if you're if you're not measuring what happens when you do this change what happens when you do this change well you're just randomly doing things and you don't know if what you're doing is working and so the next time you have to do something well you don't know what works you just randomly do more things so if you're not

[21:40]

randomly do more things so if you're not measuring everything you're not doing anything and we were not measuring the supply compared to the need of this ventilators and other stuff so now are you surprised in the end are you surprised that when we didn't measure it we came up with what you know the wrong number by triple or something no that's what happens that's an unmanaged process now the the the worst case would have been death had been in the other direction what if we had gotten to the peak that we didn't have even ten percent of the ventilators we needed I mean could have gone that way right and the public wouldn't have known until it was too late so by having us having the public less informed I think I think maybe that was a lost opportunity because I think the public probably would have pushed things closer to the the need if you know what I mean you know that the the number requests would

[22:42]

know that the the number requests would probably would have been a little more realistic if there was more visibility other in general just to I don't know that that's true by the way I'm just gonna say that in general if you don't have transparency and you're not measuring stuff it should look exactly like this that you made way too much stuff that's that would be one of the things you'd predict but in this special case maybe it doesn't matter that they made too much because you can't have too much because you can share it with other countries and we have a moral obligation to do that if we can because we have better manufacturing abilities so it's got as much more optimistic must've had a conjugal visit from Cristina Cristina is probably watching this periscope right now so let me just say how much I love her and she's the most beautiful woman in the entire simulated multi-sphere all

[23:42]

the entire simulated multi-sphere all dimensions space and time well it looks like oh did you all see the video of CNN and I think I mentioned this this morning but you have to watch it because there's another video in the same of the same interview in which Biden is on there in a triple screen so it's split three ways and it was Anderson Koo Sanjay Gupta dr. Sanjay Gupta and Biden and Biden is talking and you could watch Sanjay Gupta and the in the middle it if you haven't if you haven't watched this video it's really really funny I've watched it several times because you're watching Sanjay who you know if you've if you've been watching CNN for a long time as I have you know you having a lot of respect for him as a medical professional the you know strange shooter right so he's he's this smart scientific minded rational guy you know

[24:44]

scientific minded rational guy you know totally at the top of his game professionally and you're probably mentally in every other way he's sitting in the middle of this this three part screen and Biden is talking and you could just see him almost almost trying to send a mental energy to Biden I mean who knows what he's really thinking but the way it looked is that he was almost like wishing Biden to not make a mistake and he's kind of biting his lip because it's is starting to go off the rails and you can see like now of course I can't know what he was thinking but it's just as funny if you don't know because the way it looks is he's terribly uncomfortable being you know watched in public as Biden is talking because it's a train wreck and and both he and Anderson Cooper had to know it was a train wreck and he's trying to he's trying to play a straight but if you ever want to win some money in poker I think he wants Sanjay Gupta on the other

[25:46]

think he wants Sanjay Gupta on the other side of the table because I'll bet he's a great doctor and he's you know terrific on television so he's great at his jobs I'm guessing you know at least of what I see he's great at but I don't think he can play poker so if that was his poker face you're gonna make a lot of money off of Sanjay Gupta which is which is that which is not a criticism whatsoever I like the fact I like the fact that you can you can read his face that's a plus a negative all right debates gonna be gold I don't see debates happening to you do you see debates happening don't see it happening and it's not just because of the coronavirus I think the coronavirus might make it easy to not do it but I feel as though the Biden campaign or what's whatever will be left in it will find some reason that it's just

[26:47]

find some reason that it's just unnecessary and they'll say you know we don't need to debate this monster this orange monster everything that needs to be said has been already been said he'll just get up there and he'll tell some lies why should we debate with somebody who's just gonna lie yeah so I think they're gonna have to find some elegant or even not elegant way to not have a debate now the other alternative is that Biden gets replaced before that becomes necessary yeah you can even see this I know this is a stretch but we're in such weird territory that everything seems possible am i right it doesn't seem like anything's now possible anymore so you could imagine that a debate would get scheduled and then a few hours before the debate there'd be news that Joe Biden came down with you know I don't know a flu doesn't have to be the big

[27:49]

know a flu doesn't have to be the big one but he just gets sick but it's all scheduled and everything set up and so what did they do it's like it's just hours before the debate and Joe Biden is ill or his campaign says he is what do you do maybe maybe you send your vice-president maybe you send khamel Harris because hey show goes on and the argument is that the whole point of picking a vice-presidential running mate is that that presidential running mate is already you know on day one ready to take over the job of president and any time well perfect case let's let's prove this candidate can take over the job by taking over the debates now is that likely no no but we're in territory what we're in a this weird zone of reality where anything that does happen is also

[28:51]

where anything that does happen is also unlikely pretty much everything that happens from now on is just completely unlikely if you were to you know try to predict it in advance so could it happen probably not good all right I'm gonna take some questions because I know you like to ask your questions so let's start with Alex Alex do not disappoint me come to me Alex have a good question Alex what have you done your technology has not kept up we're gonna have to go to George George I'm counting on you to have good technology George you have a question for me yes well use your question Sam Harris talk about our response to Kovac 19 shows how

[29:53]

about our response to Kovac 19 shows how we're really unprepared for climate change how that statement at that point of view what would you do to win or think well you know there's there's a chapter in my book to think in which I I kind of talked about the framework for how to do that and here's the problem if you only had one gigantic problem that would destroy the world then you would of course be as prepared as you could be and you'd put all your money into it and you know really take care of it but he had more than one potential thing that could destroy the whole world and I listed in my book you know published months ago that what happens if a pandemic comes I mean that was actually an explicit example so if you'd spend all your money getting ready for climate change what do you have left for pandemic what happens if an asteroid is coming to the earth what happens anything happens right there's lots of lots of unknowns big war et cetera and so that's the problem is that sometimes

[30:57]

so that's the problem is that sometimes the best way to be prepared is to simply be rich and flexible would you say for example I'd see we lost the collar but I'll keep answering the question would you say that we were not prepared with ventilators I would argue that we were exactly the right amount of prepared because we could build them as fast as we needed them times times three apparently so could you say we were unprepared with ventilators when we ended up with three times more than we needed in plenty of time well I would say that is prepared in other words being rich and capable and flexible is sort of the best way to prepare for a lot of stuff and that's what happened likewise with manufacturing of all the other stuff we were prepared enough that we had a worldwide system of shipping and communication purchasing you know quality control and everything else so we were prepared in that way in a way

[31:58]

we were prepared in that way in a way that you could never be in 1918 you know were people prepared for the Spanish flu well even if they'd done everything that you could do in 1918 would you be prepared no no you wouldn't so in 1918 it didn't matter how prepared you were you know kind of kind of isn't gonna help you because you know how much you can do but these days being prepared might look like being rich and flexible and very capable to make do move talk to communicate organize whatever you need fund you know vote change legislation get rid of get rid of guidelines you know we we fare ly quickly modified our entire form of government almost instantly into a you know task force and a guideline you know regulation cotton you know buck kickin kind of a hybrid that just didn't exist a week before that happened so I

[32:59]

exist a week before that happened so I would say that I would argue that our you that we're not prepared I would say that we're prepared for more things than we've ever been prepared for in the history of humankind because we have more capability for everything but I don't know how you would weigh that method versus you know the the moonshot of saying well I'm gonna guess what we have exactly one big problem I'll just put all my resources there all right let's take another question let's see if Judith has a good question Judith Judith hello Judith do you have a question you're I started reading your blog back in August of 2015 and you totally cured me as the original I was the original never Trumper and you honestly and you got through to me in just a couple of posts and I just wish you would devote your talents to curing

[34:00]

you would devote your talents to curing TDS in the country it's such a big problem well you know it seems that maybe the only people who could be cured of TDS are people who are already leaning conservative to begin with because the President did go from you know ten percent of Republicans like him to ninety whatever percent and I would argue that that's most amazing performance of persuasion of all time I mean he just turned he turned the entire party into his party and you can't be more persuasive than that in today's world you don't really persuade the other team it's not really even about that you might you know pick off a few people just enough to tip the balance in the swing states or something but for the most part you don't cure other people they they will be permanently like that and by the way it's not that different than when Obama was in office and there were people who were just as crazy about his secret Muslim plan to to to destroy the United States I think was

[35:02]

to destroy the United States I think was what I heard the most so it's not unique to Trump and I don't think it's curable people just like their teams but thanks for the question thank you sad all right let's take another question wait first we'll go here yeah we'll do that and let's see I believe that Andrew has a question for me Andrew looks like very happy Andrew do you have a question for me I
oh now animistic last couple but I had a question on what you think of the WHO and the what Trump is thinking about doing in terms of negotiating he had a very open request on terms of he wants many things to change but didn't say specifically what and what you think of

[36:04]

specifically what and what you think of that tactic I like it a lot you know it's every now and then Trump is exactly the perfect person for the job because I don't think another president would have done what he just did which is how about we don't give you any more money until you fix it it was pretty decisive and I think exactly the right thing to do now some people have tried to say oh it's different than what Bill Gates wants and he's smart and so he wants the world health organization to remain attacked and be funded but so does Trump I mean Trump just wants them to be functional and to make whatever changes would be common sense meaning I mean they have to change leadership that's not optional I don't know what else needs to be changed but I think it's exactly exactly the right move they're very very few times when I would say something is a hundred percent correct you know even in the timing mehar to get the timing right because at the very least somebody's gonna say you should have done it sooner

[37:05]

gonna say you should have done it sooner well I don't even think he should have done it sooner to me it looks like exactly the right decision exactly the right time decisive boom he can negotiate he doesn't need to be that specific he can send his name in and say team team goes in and says you know tell us what you're gonna do and then they said that's not enough they negotiate yeah I think I think that's I like where this I don't like where it was but it seems to be heading in a fixable direction do you think having it open like that in terms of I I think I hope that the who can be reformed but I almost you know in a way I wish that we did something different in terms of having less political and to having a system that was almost like a bounty where you say oh if you come up with a malaria drug we'll give you 50 million dollars something that's like less political it's purely capitalist market driven yeah maybe there's room for both I don't

[38:05]

yeah maybe there's room for both I don't know enough about the worlds worth health organization to to have an opinion about how they should do things but yeah it does seem you know it's probably worth a look for the bottom up all right thank you thanks thank you let's take a better call here let's go to about looking at your names like I can tell who's gonna ask a good question and I think that bill will ask a good question bill bill do you have a good question for me everything well thank you I just have a quick question on any of the Trump kids taking on the presidency in the future any of the Trump kids taking on the presidency the future well what would be more fun than that I mean I can't even think of anything that would

[39:05]

can't even think of anything that would be more fun first of all I would not be surprised if after president Trump's term is over he does something in the TV or radio realm or both so I can imagine the president Trump would have some kind of an ongoing media presence or company or association or something so he'd have a leg up you know sort of a friendly media situation and then the question is which one would which one would run you know when it would it be Ivanka would it be Don jr. Eric seems to Eric seems to be less interested in politics that's just from the outside it looks that way my guess is that neither of them are gonna run I don't think they will because I don't think it looks fun and they've seen seen their father get torn apart yeah and maybe they've just had nothing you know you can't read minds I

[40:05]

nothing you know you can't read minds I mean it could be that either Ivanka Don junior or you know who Eric wakes up one day and says you know I think I'd be pretty good at this and then all bets are off because they all have such high capability so the thing that the thing that you could never bet against him right I mean I'm not saying that they would definitely win or definitely wouldn't but you wouldn't bet against them you know against anybody against anybody you know you wouldn't even have to know who's on the other side you say okay it's whoever this is to be named later and they're running against Ivanka well who you get a bet on you don't even know who the other person is and you automatically walk I think Ivanka my witness so who knows but possible good happen thank you and Don jr. of course you know he always brings the he brings the energy he has you know much of the gift that his father does so we see of course would you know make a huge splash so we'll say yeah maybe Baron maybe very

[41:09]

so we'll say yeah maybe Baron maybe very all right thanks for questions thank you
all right let's try Monica I think your Monica Monica do you have a question Nautica I can hear you what's your question that so from your point of view is there anything like the truth how can one question so there's there probably is something like the truth if you're talking about math or physics or at least it's you know true enough for our purposes but here's here's the thought experiment think of all the plants and animals and

[42:10]

think of all the plants and animals and instinct and insects in the world do any of them have a good understanding of reality and I think you'd agree no now they're they're pretty much just going through life and reproducing and that's all they need to do so if you think that evolution is how we got here was there any reason that we would have evolved to understand reality when there's no utility to it because we can see every other plants and species and you know bird and an elephant they don't really understand the reality they don't know they're on a planet that's in space they don't know that they'll die someday they don't know anything and it doesn't make any difference so why would we be the only species that evolved to know something that has no value there's just no value in knowing the real the real base reality so but it makes more sense that we evolved to imagine that we do because we can test it's easy to test that we're irrational creatures who rationalize after the fact

[43:12]

creatures who rationalize after the fact and once you realize that that's our normal mode that we make these irrational decisions and then we fill in the the weird reasons after the fact and they're not even not even rational most of the time or a lot of the time so once you realize that were a completely irrational species there's no other species plants or animal that understands the universe and doesn't need to we don't need to because if you know I use the example of you know I go shopping back when you could do things like go shopping and I'm in the grocery store and there's a Muslim to my left and a Hindu to my right we're all in different realities you know because one one believes that you know God is watching and judging and you know the afterlife is the bigger reality the Hindus you know thinks maybe reincarnation I'm thinking well maybe it's all a simulation we're not in the same reality and that extends to politics you know there the people who think that Trump is a monster really see it like that's that's

[44:13]

monster really see it like that's that's what they see and feel all the information that they're receiving is consistent with that and yet sitting right next to them in the same room somebody watching the same stuff is getting a completely different movie in reality so if there is a base truth it would not be available to us because our brains there's no reason to assume our brains could do that they're just not that tool in the same way that you would assume a cotton ball would not be a good can opener it just isn't for that it was never made for that there's no surprise that it doesn't work for that so there might be a base reality it's unavailable to us and so we have to act we have to act like we know reality but we're just sort of guessing is that what you wanted well there's definitely something to the fact

[45:14]

there's definitely something to the fact that collectively we decide on some truths but even then there's always at least one other camp that did not agree on that truth so yeah I'ma be candid a big proponent of the idea that reality is subjective and that's the good news because if reality is subjective you can sort of craft it the way you want it you can you can create your own reality as long as it's consistent with what you observe you can create any idea any reality you want for example I have created the reality doesn't mean it's true I've created the reality that I always win that's it I just that in my mind I've decided that that's the filter on the world is that in the end I always win oh yeah I don't win every point but I always win the game oh yeah maybe I don't win every game but I'm definitely gonna win the match you know so so that's sort of a fiction if you will that I've invented for myself so I live

[46:14]

that I've invented for myself so I live in that world and then probably confirmation bias and selective memory allows me to live there and I live in a world in which I always seem to win and is that true I don't know all I know is that because I've set that filter every every piece of information that comes in confirms that it's true even if it isn't which is the cool thing so does it hurt me to have this filter that says I always win probably not there's probably no downside to it if it's wrong it's just a harmless maybe it's helpful filter that makes me feel good makes me work harder keeps me optimistic makes me try harder because I figure half it's just one more you know one more minute and I'm gonna win in any moment here and you see how that plays out if if any of you were with me when the election happened in 2016 and I made the most ridiculous prediction in 2015 that Trump would win

[47:15]

prediction in 2015 that Trump would win it at all and then he did and I'm sitting there watching this unfold and you talk about doubting reality that night and you probably all had this the same experience in some form when you're watching the the vote tallies come in and I had created this world and I'm completely aware of the fact it's fiction I've created for myself a fictional world in which I always win and then I did the most ridiculous prediction pull everything into it did it in public you know basically risk my entire reputation forever yeah a third of my income I mean I just gambled everything on the stupidest prediction in the world why because I always win because I always win and that I won and so it seemed to reinforce the thing I have the fiction I've created now did I cause it to happen well that would be you know maybe interpretation that the

[48:16]

you know maybe interpretation that the simulation is something that you could steer and you're a player in it or something like that so certainly we can create our own reality within within certain bounds you know I can't I can't will myself to fly but I can tell myself I always win and then I live in that reality where there's anyway thanks for the question that was probably weirder than you were expecting
all right let's see if David has a good question David do you have a good question for me hi I was thinking about I remember when you you were posting your blog posts this is back in 2016 and I was fascinated like whoa this is weird like Trump could actually win and then following that all the way to now and then learning about persuasion I

[49:17]

and then learning about persuasion I feel like people used to find authors and read books like what we're doing now finding people like Eric Weinstein I think is a good example I think you are a great example and I'm wondering if is there sort of a it seems like maybe it's because I listened to you so much but I look at everything in terms of persuasion now like what are they trying to get me to think you know where's the dog that's not barking it gets kind of addicting I wonder if how do you stay sort of fascinated with what you're doing without becoming bored because I find the more I've learned from you that we're boring my friends have become that's kind of sad because when I speak to like say my family now and and I have started to use the like the sort of reframing technique and I can tell they don't like it but I think but what I noticed is like two weeks later they'll start to say the same things prior and

[50:19]

start to say the same things prior and it's like it's it's like a it's like a framework virus do you know I just wondered how do you stay I guess interested and and do you have plans to develop this maybe like to go into cognitive science like this it's a it's an incredible like technology well what you you kid on so many points so let me let me add a few of these myself number one there's something very big and important happening and I know a number of people would probably confirm this so probably probably people would agree with me would be you know Jordan Peterson and Eric Weinstein probably Joe Rogan you know Mike Stern efetch and and and here's the thing people privately tell me all the time all the time that they treat me as as sort of a mentor like a the person who teaches them how to navigate life and it's all the stuff that the school system and your own parents didn't know yet they couldn't

[51:20]

parents didn't know yet they couldn't teach it to you because they didn't know but you know if you listen to I always like certain pitches by like universal reference because he he fits so many examples but if you listen to him you're gonna get smarter there's no way around it you know and you know you listen to Eric whine so you're just gonna get smarter and I could name a bunch of others right so it feels like and then and then there are people who are teaching through the people that are bringing in the other day of Rubens for example Joe Rogan's in that category so there they are accidental teachers and accidental mentors for a generation that got that I think feels like they were shorted in life strategy and I don't know if it's because the strategy got more complicated than it used to be maybe it was obvious 200 years ago it's like hey you're gonna grow up in there at the farm so you don't need too much strategy but now you really need to navigate a complicated situation it's

[52:22]

navigate a complicated situation it's better to have systems and goals it's better to have a talent stack than one narrow thing so you have to you have to take a sort of a statistical more rational approach to this complicated environment so the first thing is there's something big happening in which me well which I and a number of other people are seeming to recognize as teachers who did not intend to be in this position we just sort of became that way people told us what we were and then we became it I've often said that the you don't tell your customers what you're selling they tell you I mean you might you might try it first and say selling this widget but then the customers say hey no no I really like the service that you have and I like your cafeteria you're more of a restaurant then next thing you know you're a restaurant when when Dilbert first came out it was a generic cartoon but my customer said no it's a workplace cartoon and I'd say no it's not he's

[53:22]

cartoon and I'd say no it's not he's hardly ever in the workplace and all my customers would say no it's a workplace cartoon so I turned it into a workplace cartoon were the customers right yeah yeah they were right I mean it was made the whole difference is just listening to the customer and then responding there's a second part to this which is
what was the other part of the question I was sort of wondering where do you where do you think it's heading like we went from books now we're doing oh yeah yeah we're heading how could this is well I'll be real quick when you were talking about like leaving the house I was like dude you can't die because you're the most fascinating person I'm listening to you right now so if you go I don't know I'm sure people will start popping up because it's been fun that's the thing about it it's just really fun well yeah I'm not gonna die um because I get to create my own reality and that's nothing so well you know part of what I talk about is that if you have different

[54:24]

talk about is that if you have different experience in different domains they they're not just additive they're almost multiplicative is that a word you know if if you know economics and then you you also know psychology it's not twice as good it's more like three times as good and then then you add on top of that oh you're also a public good public speaker it's not you know you know it's not 50% better it's it's four times better so just learning the the math of life is important and I feel like I had a special window into that that I I felt like almost a responsibility to talk about because my window was somewhat accidental because I've just had a such a broad experience that I've seen things that other people haven't seen and I thought well maybe if I tell you what I've seen you can get there faster without having to you know have that job and stuff and I got to tell you that when I was maybe six years old I tried to figure out what

[55:25]

six years old I tried to figure out what was going on with this whole reality stuff and and really has started that early and everything that I aimed my life at was to try to figure out reality just like figure out what are the rules or is there some kind of user interface to reality if I knew where the buttons were could I push them if I figured out the strategy would it be like a superpower is everything just random and and I I've been a real searcher you know I went through all the religions what's there and looked into you es B's or anything there and I spent a serious time on all these things I looked at ghosts and you know every every kind of you know did the aliens build the pyramids now not a not a believer and I don't think any of the ones that I mentioned but you you become insatiable interested in picking up stuff and then you learn stuff like you hear Warren Buffett talk and he tells you oh here the you know three or four rules of

[56:27]

the you know three or four rules of investing and you say to yourself wow that's it I found a little part of the the user-interface diversify buy and hold and don't sell it until the reason you bought it changes you know and make sure you have good management just a few little rules and then that that little part of the user interface of life got filled in and now I know that right right I have a degree also but it helped that Warren Buffett said is so clearly so you start putting together these pieces when I took hypnosis suddenly I understood how people worked and there were people were completely confusing to me because I thought they were rational and they they just kept not being irrational and I kept trying to make them rational and I thought I was rational and they weren't wouldn't and and I could make the rational with my was my great arguments and it never worked until until I realized that it's not even a thing you know first of all I have no reason to believe I'm rational not all the time and I certainly am not

[57:28]

not all the time and I certainly am not going to other people because there's no rationality to work with you know they're just people who rationalize after the fact so now you've got like this little finance piece you're like okay I think I know all the buttons because there actually aren't that many buttons for the whole investing world that are important there are lots of buttons but they're mostly unimportant then you say well what about management what about economics you know do you really follow the money and it is the money really determining everything and in is it because of money and and the the time value of money and knowing about some cost so when I took economics I learned economics to understand reality that's why I took it like explicitly in my head now I thought I could you know give me a number of opportunities and that was good but the main reason was I wanted to understand how the economy works and then I learned enough you know I'm no expert on it but enough of that so that that part of the

[58:29]

enough of that so that that part of the the user interface to reality got filled in so you know I'm at a certain age now where little by little I filled in the real estate on my screen you know just to use that analogy yeah I figured I got the buttons and put them in and you know part of it is building the talent stack part of it is you know seeing seeing the field part of his just being a certain age and when it all started coming together there was some period or so at some point I realized that because it's such a little increment every day you don't realize that you get smarter every day right until you look back at you know 30 years ago yourself you say whoa I picked up a few I picked up a few tricks yeah I saw some things and it's never been more obvious than I would say this week because the amount of you know BS BS and hoaxes that we've seen around coronavirus and in politics lately and I

[59:30]

coronavirus and in politics lately and I think you know you've probably watched me
me just pick out the hoaxes just right out of the pile I mean you've seen me look into the fog and say okay that one Boop let's pick this one that one's probably not real yeah I'm not right every time yeah but my my pattern recognition engine just says a lot of a lot of miles on it so I can just see it I don't I don't have to research it you just see it so that's not real poop like the the Cuban embassy with the secret sonic sonic yeah now I don't have to I don't have to do research I just have to be me and have lived in the world enough that when I hear the story about the secret sonic weapon I don't need to ask any more questions now for those of you who are younger like if you know say you're thirty and you're listening to this you're probably saying to yourself hey old man that's not a thing you can't just look at it and know you know cuz

[1:00:32]

just look at it and know you know cuz yeah I'm pretty smart I'm thirty I got good grades I'm looking at it I didn't know there's no way old man you know you you don't learn that well you do you really do the the extra vision you get with every few years of your life like every five years you just go up a level and it's like it's like x-ray vision you know I've talked about seeing round corners like sort of itch is another one who has x-ray vision he could actually see around the corner like he's not just straight lining the future he's like going down around the corner and dad and all down in an alleyway he goes okay down there take a right down the corner behind the dumpster you're gonna find a surprise it's yellow and you go down there and there's like this yellow thing you're like how the hell did you do that well he just sees more of the field that's all so thank you for your question that was a fun one yeah thanks so much all right take care

[1:01:32]

all right I have come to the end of my time I don't want to take much more of your time and I will see you in the morning