Episode 915 Scott Adams: If You Can’t Bank it, Blanket! Come Feel Better.

Date: 2020-04-16 | Duration: 33:43

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: The zeitgeist power shift We now have a large surplus of ventilators Bill Gates, vaccines, testing in Africa Small business loan requirements Whiteboard: Complex Models

If you would like my channel to have a wider audience and higher production quality, please donate via my startup (Whenhub.com) at this link: https://interface.my/ScottAdamsSays

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## Transcript

[0:16]

oh that's better do you know it's hard to put on a blanket when you're already sitting in a chair well now you do you come here to learn and learn you did well this is the part of the night where all of your worries and cares will be draining out of your body back into the earth where they belong don't push them down into your stomach and try to bury them with food I'm just kidding that works too but stick with me and by the end of this you're gonna feel so much better so much better it's just gonna be crazy so let us begin talking about all the things number one I hope that all of you are learning a new skill or working on your fitness or learning to cook or bonding with your partner is everybody here have you all made it a point to just at least pick one thing

[1:19]

point to just at least pick one thing that's just gonna be better because it's the one thing you can control you can control if you learn something you can control if you try something etc and in times like this it's good to get our mind off of things and it's good to just try some stuff so one of the things I'm trying I'm trying lots of different stuff you're working on my drumming working on my weight training and stuff but I signed up for a cameo do you know what that is it's the it's the app where you can you can add me leave a message for somebody as sort of a gift so it's like a 30-second message from semi-famous b-list celebrities like myself so you do the cameo app and you just find be there that's what you need to know I have I have a feeling that the zeitgeist is changing this is what I feel like the zeitgeist is changing

[2:21]

feel like the zeitgeist is changing meaning that the way that the country feels it's almost you feel like you're connected to the whole country right now in a way of that you haven't quite felt before because I find that what I think about you know the big decision of how to go back to to work and how do you go back to normal the risks and stuff I feel that because I can't make that decision without literally thinking of everyone else in the country like it how do you do it because it's all connected right so you know anything you think of it's like well we could do it this way then do you think oh well that would be really bad for restaurants or whoever so there's there's pretty much no way to guarantee that anything you do is going to be good for everybody so you just feel sort of connected because you're worrying about everybody you're wondering what you can do how you can help it's very connected feeling and because it's connected I feel like maybe

[3:22]

because it's connected I feel like maybe you feel this too it's almost like you can feel the the pulse of the public you know in a way that you don't normally feel and let me tell you what I'm feeling and then maybe you can validate how that feels in your end there's something about one month that makes anything doable meaning if you say we only have to do something for one month people will complain but you can do anything for one month if it gets pushed out to six weeks you'll complain some more but you'll say to yourself it's only two more weeks if it gets pushed out to what would be the second month there's going to be some serious conversation and you know where we are right so so we're right in that point where the where the flexibility of the country has

[4:25]

where the flexibility of the country has reached something like a limit now let me give you the good news if our leaders are doing everything just right it might be that the perfect place to you know start getting back to work is when it seems like it's too late you know to just take it right up to the red line you know you get into the red zone and just push him more into the red zone red zone sort of like Captain Kirk trying to do you know warp 12 the ship wasn't built for work 12 so it could be that we're heading right into the optimal best we could've done you just don't know and that's the big problem is that nobody really knows it could be that we should have going back to work three weeks ago which could be that the only thing that makes sense is to you know stay stay locked out for longer nobody really knows but I'll tell you some things we do know you here are some things we know okay number one I

[5:28]

things we know okay number one I probably have the best situation of almost anybody you know in terms of you know getting through the social isolation because I'm in a really nice environment and it's where I would be anyway you know most of the time so the suffering at all but I gotta tell you today I lost a little bit so just you know those days where you're getting really mad at stuff and you're getting really bad if the people online and you say to yourself I don't know if I would have been this mad about what somebody said online and they make up excuses and I say to myself alright it's not that I'm getting too mad it's because it's so important you know the people need to think right about the the crisis to get it right so I feel like no no I'm not overreacting I'm reacting just right because it really is important and

[6:30]

because it really is important and somebody could get killed if if we get it wrong so but I realize that's a rationalization I've completely aware that I'm just pissed off and I'm starting to take it out on objects and you know nothing right here was my first revelation I'm a pretty chill guy and I'm writing this out better than just about anybody really and if it got to me if it got to me I mean I was ready to stage a revolution today and honestly I don't know what it's like to be anybody else and I don't think anybody else does either right you don't know what it's like to be me I couldn't possibly know what it's like to be you but I do know this it's way worse it's way worse to be most of you because you're not in as

[7:30]

most of you because you're not in as good a situation so if it got to me today I got a real like just a glimmer of how bad this must be for other people and of course you knew it you know it's not like you didn't know it intellectually you know you hear it on the news it's obvious but to feel it is a different there's all different experience and this gets me to Michigan what would you say is the most American state if you had to pick one you know out of all the states what's the most what's the one that just is the most American and I'm not saying that's good or bad you know you can leave your judgments out on them but I think you'd agree that you know Michigan is pretty high on the list right I don't know if it's number one but when you think of you know what makes America the sort of traditional way right so sort of the you know salute

[8:31]

way right so sort of the you know salute the flag and eat the apple pie kind of way and watching Michigan stage of revolution today you most of you saw them do where they they got in their cars so they wouldn't be you know infecting yet each other too badly and they clogged up the streets around the Capitol to make a point and I thought to myself you know if the revolution is starting Michigan why not Michigan's pretty darn American and Americans were flexible we're very flexible but we have a limit and what I'm saying is if I felt I was near the limit I can't even imagine how you feel you know some of you so I think that we all we all buy into the idea that in an emergency it's better to have order and

[9:33]

emergency it's better to have order and if you have at least a little bit of trust about the people at the top it's better in an emergency say okay it's emergency just tell us what to do but as time goes by that authority gets you know pushed down so that the states have more control when they tell the cities and the cities do their things maybe your neighborhood does something so that the control is being pushed out but ultimately as I like to say ultimately the public has all the control yeah we have a government and then you know they have police and they have armies and stuff like that but they're not going to use them all right yeah if the public just said you know what let's just pick our own date we'll just pick our own date and we know the risk we watch TV well wear the mask we'll do the thing if some people don't want to we'll work it out that maybe they'll be shunned and maybe they just work in places where it doesn't matter

[10:34]

work in places where it doesn't matter maybe people take the risk we'll just work it out so ultimately I guess what I was feeling today is that that zeitgeist powershift in which the government is still in control but only barely do you feel that that I mean in a bad way you know I don't think they got room it's gonna be overthrown I'm not talking about that I'm talking about just on this question of when we go back to work I think the public is ready to decide for the government because I don't think the government has a better plan than we do do you do you think the government can give you a more detailed plan that works for you and your family do you think they can you know prescribe that better than you could probably not right now I

[11:36]

than you could probably not right now I also read the the mood of the country that if a few hundred thousand people die because of this that's what it's going to be they could happen fast it could happen slow but probably there's no way to get to the other side without that and I think the country is ready and it took you know if you have to say there's a silver lining it's really dark silver lining in this case but the the fear and the the real pain of this economic upheaval probably was necessary to get the citizens of the United States to say effectively what I was saying over earlier today which is I'm in the higher risk group because of my age and asthma and I'm ready to take the chance so you know if I'm ready I don't think an 82 year old should be ready but you know I'm close enough to the gray area

[12:37]

know I'm close enough to the gray area that I'd take a chance because you know my actual odds of dying are really kind of small so I think people are ready here are some good news can you believe that we have too many ventilators and and way too many that's pretty good and the only stats that I care about out of New York City because I think today the number of deaths went up but the only one that I'm really watching is the number of hospitalizations you know how many people are admitted to the hospital and that keeps dropping so lately day after day the number of people who went in the hospital at all is dropping and in terms of getting back to work that's got to be the most important one so there's that I found out I keep seeing stuff all over Twitter that I didn't understand so I dug into a little bit and Candice Owens was saying

[13:40]

little bit and Candice Owens was saying this and also emerald Robinson from Newsmax they're both making comments about Bill Gates and his involvement in you know health care decisions and vaccinations and stuff and I didn't realize how much hatred there was for Bill Gates I had no idea that's why I decided to you know sample a little of what is it that they did indeed Candace called him a vaccine criminal and I thought that's that's pretty that's pretty direct accusation what does that mean so I looked at it so I asked her and you know we messaged a few times if she said be some links to show me the the sources that word they would show that Bill Gates had done horrible things and I read them and I just didn't see it

[14:40]

and I read them and I just didn't see it so I don't know I mean I read I read two sources that she sent me one was Snopes saying that there was no evidence of the thing and so when I pointed out to Candice that Snopes this the source she sent me says there's no evidence of this charge against Bill Gates and Candice said but they don't have any evidence that it isn't true essentially Bob not sure that's the thing you know if there's a weird accusation it's not Bill Gates's job to prove it didn't happen somebody can ask too you know if Snopes says there's no evidence so that was one of them and the other one was I think it's true but it doesn't mean anything in terms of Bill Gates being a bad guy and it was this that I guess there was some situation I don't know all the details but I'll give you the broad strokes so I guess it's cheaper and easier to test

[15:42]

guess it's cheaper and easier to test test some meds and vaccinations in Africa because in part everything's cheaper there but probably more than that they have relaxed standards for things so you know right away your your alarm is going off it's like wait a minute the pharmaceutical companies go to Africa because they have relaxed the standards I don't know what that means exactly and I don't know if those right the relaxed and ERDs are ones that matter because you can easily imagine that the United States has too many and you know maybe it's just it's just easier and maybe everybody has good intentions but let's talk about their intentions so there was some kind of something got tested I think Bill Gates invested in a company that did some testings of vaccines and it looked like there were some pretty bad outcomes so some of the people in the trial and Africa had bad outcomes like death and just really bad outcomes and so it's

[16:51]

just really bad outcomes and so it's good so here's the question is that Bill Gates fault that a company that he funded did a study and or did a trial and it ended up hurting some people because that's actually why you do the trial right that's the whole point of the trial is that you don't know if it'll hurt anybody and then it does so you stop but then there was also something about a lot of the people were in the trial seem to be young and not really knowing they were in the trial so that was another another issue and but I think that almost certainly has more to do with their parents or guardians or whoever signed the paperwork because I guess some of the girls couldn't read or write you know so you know they didn't read any kind of agreement so that part is super sketchy but I don't know if that was Bill Gates's fault I mean it's kind of a stretch to connect those dots you

[17:53]

of a stretch to connect those dots you could say that the thing is horrible and should never happen if if the facts are accurate there's something horrible there that needs to be fixed never happened again probably but did Bill Gates know that the company he funded would hire somebody on the ground who would talk to a guardian who would not have the proper motivation maybe they should've but anyway in Africa is a tough country a tough continent all right then there's a you know the small business loads so all the small business losses are coming out and I wanted to see what the paperwork look like so I downloaded it and here's the here's the economic argument you have to have in order to apply for a loan which would turn into just free money you wouldn't have to pay it back if you can meet the requirements of using that money to retain your staff so it's meant to

[18:55]

retain your staff so it's meant to retain the staff I'm not sure if that's the SBA part or something else but anyway it's that's what the moneys for and here's the only sentence that you have to satisfy to say that you need the money here's the exact sentence current economic uncertainty makes this loan request necessary to support the ongoing operations of the applicant so you only have to check the box you know and then sign the document this says that you're current economic uncertainty makes it necessary to get this to be sure that you can do retain people now thinking to myself that's pretty open-ended that is pretty open-ended
looking all the anti anti bill gates people I'm I'm fairly certain that that

[19:56]

people I'm I'm fairly certain that that all of the Bill Gates stuff well I don't know I can't say 100% it depend it's almost all so ridiculous that I don't even know if you need to research it it's in the clearly ridiculous category of things because you have to start with who is Bill Gates and yeah the only way you could believe any of this stuff is if you'd never see the you know documentary you never read about him never had his biography never read his predictions so if you didn't know who Bill Gates was those would be pretty you know pretty reasonable conspiracy theories but if you know who he is they're all ridiculous alright are people gonna hate me for liking Bill Gates probably so here's the point where you can check your prediction awesomeness are you ready everyone said well the news will report something with

[20:57]

well the news will report something with enough certainty they you should stop and say okay now that we know what the situation is what did I predict it would be and you should make a note of it because you don't want to lose sight of the fact that you were right if you're right or that you were wrong because that will teach you if you're good at this or in what situations maybe you're good at it so that your how orders get better so what we found out last I'd say two days is that there's a lot of reporting that the the virus came from the lab in Wuhan but was not intentional and was not a bioweapon probably just a natural virus that they study typically in those labs and got it had that China covered it up now who among you said early on before we had I think he feels confirmed at this point the quality of the extent of the reporting the way the

[21:58]

the extent of the reporting the way the United is talking about it the way China acted it looks like it's confirmed so how many of you thought that it was a bio weapon if you did I think you can mark that wrong at least according to the best reporting and according to the United States right now some of you make linked to that and say yeah it's not 100% wrong yet but it's probably wrong now I predicted from early on that it wasn't a bio weapon so I think I got that part right how many of you said it came from the wet market and not the lab because if you said that you were wrong I think I get partial credit because in the very earliest days I said yes yes yes I hear you that there's a lab nearby and yeah I get it that that's pretty suspicious but it's not outside of the kind of coincidence that happens all the time so

[23:01]

coincidence that happens all the time so it wasn't such a big coincidence assuming that there really were bats there which at the time we thought there were bats but turns out maybe there were no bats for sale at the Webb market but what we thought there were bats into what market well it was pretty reasonable to think we have two hypotheses something got out of a lab yeah very possible or something got out of that web market and there were some you know wet bats they're also very possible seem very possible so I was you know I was saying hey keep an open mind until you know we know a little bit more but as of I don't know several days ago so before this latest round of reporting I had commented that when China reopened the the wet markets that that was China basically telling us that it wasn't the

[24:01]

basically telling us that it wasn't the wet markets because they wouldn't have opened them if they thought that the world would be you know looking at them and oh my god those well markets they would I don't think they would have just reopened the very thing that almost destroyed the world so it was kind of almost a public confession that it wasn't the web markets because it's just it's hard to hard to imagine they would have just opened them up because it's not like they contribute that much to each gonna be overall so I had said that that was a signal that definitely wasn't the web markets so that left the obvious which was something accidental from the lab so I would say that I eventually eventually got pretty close to what it looks like is gonna be the answer so check your predictions how many of you predicted that Christine is texting me up the order will be here in ten minutes so we have 10 minutes before by door dashes

[25:03]

have 10 minutes before by door dashes here so I wanted to talk to you about models because I've been explaining this social media until my face is blue and this is the thing that people didn't understand until maybe this month so I used to do a lot of prediction models for a living back to my banking days and my phone company days that's what I did so I would do these complicated many variable models just on usually just on down spreadsheets but adds lots of variables and stuff so I learned firsthand that they're never accurate but sometimes you can find a range of your risk so this is the thing that people learn today if it's a complicated model which is different than something simple a simple model that could work if you have a really simple model that says oh every every year for the last thirty years we went up five percent so we predict next year will go up five percent I mean if it's really simple

[26:05]

percent I mean if it's really simple sure might work but as soon as you get a bunch of variables such as we had with the coronavirus and here's the fun part we didn't know any of the variables accurately and we knew we didn't know them accurately so we were guessing about the lethality with allottee we were guessing about which variables really you know made a difference we thought that smoking made it worse but maybe it makes it better we thought it was something about I don't know humidity intensity and something you know age and then maybe it wasn't the maybe it's in the blood so we had these intense unknowns and then on top of that nobody really knew how well we would do social distancing nobody really knew how well it would work this had never been done in this scale no but nobody really knew how well the master work nobody really knew any of that so here was this complicated model with I don't know how many variables but had to be at least dozens maybe hundreds and

[27:06]

be at least dozens maybe hundreds and here's the thing they didn't know any of them it's not as if they had a few assumptions but the rest of them were you know pretty good estimates would they don't know any of them and they do they didn't know him because they knew that you know the information was evolving isn't even as they watched so in the situation where you just are guessing and most of the variables because you can't really know them what are the odds that it's gonna predict the future zero it can't do that that's another thing if he hit the future it would only be an accident which could happen I mean it could accidentally predict the future but it couldn't do it intentionally it's not for that and you don't even use them for that they're only for these things they can size your risk so you try a bunch of variables and you say well these variables are here well that's not so bad let's try it again these variables are here now that's not too bad let's try a little tweaking of the variables again oh my god if I tweak those variables

[28:08]

oh my god if I tweak those variables this way it's the end of the world I better run that again uh-oh there's a whole bunch of situations that are the end of the world that you could just tweak different variables and get there so that's how you use a complicated model to size the risk it's not telling you what the risk is it's not predicting the risk you can't do that you can't predict a future with that many variables it's simply telling you it's it's this big now here's the key part that every guess wrong if it's sizing it this big and it turns out that it's just beyond it was the model wrong no that's the part everybody gets wrong if it's just outside of that big range that have said it's going to be almost certainly in this range and it's just outside which sixty thousand deaths is really just outside of a hundred thousand if you're looking at a hundred thousand to a million or to that range that's actually a bull's-eye

[29:09]

that's actually a bull's-eye yeah it's about as good as you can do and of course the models are used to persuade because the scientists the experts have a hard time communicating so the because the complexity of what they know can't really be communicated so they need a simplified way to tell the people who are not experts here it is and here's how it usually goes in a the exaggerated form the scientists will say all right here's this model but I have to tell you we have a lot of just estimates there's so many variables I mean it's you know there's just no way to know what the actual answer is but it was somewhere in this general area we think this model sizes the risk so that's what the expert says and the expert tells let's say that you know a low level person in the government person the government takes the takes the graph that came with all of that hedging and takes it to his boss or her boss and says we've got a problem here

[30:10]

boss and says we've got a problem here leave this graph it looks like it looks like you know some terrible it's gonna happen and all the hedging will be gone by then because as soon as the graph gets into the wild all of the well we're guessing on this it could be this we ran a lot of models we had to throw ten models out we think we feel pretty good about this it turns out that a complicated model is usually just the expert opinion consensus hammered into a model so that they can communicate it but what they're communicating is just the the bulk of all their testing and things that are hard to explain it the only way they can explain it and say look at this pretty pink hey hey let us see that graph goes up you see goes up that's all you need to know look graph goes up goes up remember that I don't want to overwhelm you so when people got mad because they said hey we thought those predictions were going to be accurate or at least far more

[31:13]

be accurate or at least far more accurate and now we're disappointed and now all the experts are liars and idiots to which I say well you only had yourself to blame and now that you know that complex models of that type are not even intended to predict the future they don't have that it's not even an option now that you know that you have advanced to the next level so in this simulation game your challenge was to understand this and now that you do you may advance to the next level experts with complicated graphs are trying to persuade you now that doesn't mean they're wrong and it doesn't mean they're dishonest it only means the only way they can communicate their awesome intelligence which could be right could it be wrong but it's still awesome intelligence the only way they can communicate it is by lying with a little

[32:13]

communicate it is by lying with a little graph and if you know what I mean it's the only way you can get from here to there so if you if you're if you feel like you want to blame the experts for lying to you give them a little credit it's the only way they can communicate with people who don't know what they know haven't seen what they've seen haven't haven't you know lived and breathed the full you know scope of the thing so they could be pretty sure that there's a big problem ahead but they might need a little bit of a lie a little bit of a graph that's a little too neat to sell it to the public so once you know that you go to the next level congratulations you've gone to the next level and by the time we get out of this coronavirus situation I expect you will have advanced several levels up and aware in the simulation congratulations and your reward will be an extra good night's sleep tonight

[33:14]

night's sleep tonight when you're drifting off you're gonna remember my voice and you're gonna remember that I told you that it was going to be a really good night's sleep and as soon as you think that you're gonna think wow it's like I'm just sinking into the mattress I'm just seeking into the pillow and you'll feel momentarily heavy and then you'll just boom right to sleep have a great night