Episode 911 Scott Adams: Swaddle and Learn Surprising Things

Date: 2020-04-14 | Duration: 40:46

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: People are really bad at evaluating things Why Dr. Fauci will NOT be fired Biden and Bernie’s video Clever things President Trump is doing right now Steve Bannon booted off Twitter

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## Transcript

[0:13]

oh hey everybody come on in it's time for the evening swaddle you can have a blanket or a towel it doesn't matter well I'm swapping with a towel today because well you'll find out why so we've got news coming at us so fast it's like a fire hose into a Dixie cup and I'm just the Dixie cup to grab that fire hose full of water and tell you what it all means glad you could make it here's what it means in no particular order let's start with the bad news so have you noticed that people are really bad at evaluating things sorry I'm gonna candy people are really bad at evaluating things and this situation has really brought that into stark relief as they like to say as you watch people do a bad job of evaluating things let me give you an example people

[1:14]

things let me give you an example people said heard the hard our order of those models were not accurate because first they said might be a billion or two and then they settle down could be a million at the high side but it might be a hundred thousand at the low side and then it got revised the 60,000 the people said the models the models are wrong because you said you said it was gonna be at least a hundred thousand now you'd have 260 thousand and you made us do all this stuff to which I say there's something missing in the analysis and it goes like this which part of our plan to get back to work makes the virus go away anybody anybody which part of all the plans to go back to work feature the virus just not being there anymore is the insert none I think the answer is none so if the answer is none that means that

[2:17]

so if the answer is none that means that whenever we go back to work and here's the key part however we go back to work and if that 50,000 number will no longer be valid because we won't be mitigating I don't believe the models have any kind of in an end state contemplated yeah am i right I believe the the models don't assume that the virus ever goes away the models assume that they sort of just trails off some low number forever but we don't have a cure and nor do we think that the vaccine will be like a magic thing that makes it go away so here's the thing did the models get it wrong unfortunately that number is not going to be 60,000 because it's pretty clear that we're going to go back to work one way or another whether it's you know May or

[3:19]

another whether it's you know May or June or any time after that we're going back to work and the counter starts again because we can test like crazy and we can take Hydra hydroxyl Corps clean clean if that works or whatever but the fact that it'll still be with us and still be viral and still be killing people so it's gonna take its number are the only player that anybody is contemplated involves what 1% of the United States times 60% getting it what's that number so the actual number if you're asking yourself what's the actual number we're contemplating going back to work now the going back to work number is back in the hundreds of thousands and that 60,000 immediately just gets thrown out the window it's like oh now you're back to hundreds of thousands so I think the people are not quite seeing this right they're imagining that 60,000 is our is the

[4:20]

imagining that 60,000 is our is the worst case or something so we can get back to work as is 50,000 but there is though there's no path like that that doesn't exist it's either never go back to work or it's hundreds of thousands of deaths I would predict at this point that we will accept the hundreds of thousands of deaths but not until we've taken it as far as we can take it to flat B curve so in the in the end well you don't have to ask you don't have to ask what path we'll pick because there's only one there's only one path and the path is we're gonna go back to work sometime in the next few weeks and we're gonna have hundreds of thousands of deaths there's just no way around it that's it now we might be able to avoid crashing to hospitals but I doubt it I think that all this preparation we have now that we didn't need will probably dismantle it and then you know wish we

[5:22]

dismantle it and then you know wish we had it later that's the bad news so if anybody tells you that they're working on the plan you should have a little recording in your head it's like oh okay we are going to accept a few hundred thousand deaths because otherwise there is no plan there's no plan without that can't happen Trump was funny because he played a compilation clip at the press conference mocking the media did you see that it was pretty it was a pretty ballsy play it's a compilation clip of just all of them being wrong about the coronavirus same as he was now here's the thing that nobody has quite figured out yet and when I say it when I say this you're gonna be mad at yourself that you didn't think of it so that's my challenge to you I'm gonna say something that as soon as you hear it you're gonna say oh oh that's really obvious but it wasn't until you said it here it goes I think you saw the talk about Trump

[6:22]

I think you saw the talk about Trump might want to fire a foul Qi there's no way and here's why and this is the part that's going to make you mad as long as foul Chi exists and he's on the team foul Qi is apparently willing to say what he said today and he said for but he said it really clearly today he said every time the I and dr. Burks recommended something to the president he said yes every single time now if you're the president and the top recognized expert in the world is giving you that much cover and the expert is saying look he did everything we asked them to do we're the experts that is a hundred percent of cover do you think that Trump is going to fire the guy that gives him a hundred percent cover because remember is the top viral guy he says often and clearly Trump did

[7:22]

says often and clearly Trump did everything I recommended and fairly quickly - now how she says but it's also not my fault effectively because he was operating on faulty information from China so have you you have this perfect setup so Trump can blame kouchi and and he's right right I don't think that's a an excuse right if you're top expert tells you what to do and then you do it well you that's about as good as you can do if you're not an expert yourself so Trump has a perfect alibi in foul she foul he has a perfect alibi in China because everybody agrees that China was lying so if out she didn't have the right information but who does China blame the United States Trump so it's a perfect like circle of life of blame Trump can

[8:22]

like circle of life of blame Trump can blame foul chief how she can blame China then China just goes back to blame is Trump everybody's got somebody to blame so now she's not getting fired he's the perfect person to have in that position if you want to get reelected and your name is Trump and by the way I don't think in my opinion foul she hasn't made any mistakes he simply had bad information like everybody else fog of war you know you could say somebody should have guessed better but that's not fair you know at the time nobody knew what was going on I had a phone call today I called a local restaurant because I was curious what the most capable operator in my town was doing so it's a restaurant that doesn't appear on door - so I'd looked for it I was gonna order food one time and it was on there so I thought oh if they're not doing takeout so anyway I do that I done the owner so I called them and said you

[9:24]

the owner so I called them and said you know how you how you doing now I'll have to say again the reason that I focused on this one restaurant this one owner is that you know I owned a restaurant locally and I could tell you he's the best restaurant owner you know with the best entrepreneurial just the smartest savviest restaurant owner of the area so I thought whatever he's doing again I'm gonna find out so here here's what he said so they fairly quickly you know retooled their operation to be takeout only he kept a half of his staff that's what he could do but he's also applying for the SBA thing so he'll be able to bring them back with a guarantee pretty soon so that's pretty good kept half of them you know went to take out but apparently he's being quite creative so they've already changed their website to say that they have all these offerings and they'll take it out to the curb for you so you can just call them up put in your order drive up and text to my gas if they pop out and give it to you but

[10:24]

if they pop out and give it to you but here's the great part you made an offer for Easter that he would you know make your meal for you sort of a catering situation you just had to come pick it up and he had he had lines around the lines around the block and here's the fun part he almost made as much as he made last year in the same weekend you know Easter weekend so it was such a smashing success now a lot of it had to do with the fact that the the local population is really it looks like they're stepping up to support their locals so I called them who said what can I do you know how can I help and I told them that we talked a little bit I said all I'll put a mention nextdoor that's the local app that just goes out to your neighbors and I'll tell remind them that you're you know that you're open for business and you know take it out to the curb and and he's not a door - and stuff so I I did a little advertisement for him on the local local media that a lot of people look at dad

[11:25]

media that a lot of people look at dad or that would make any difference but here was the idea that I suggested because one of the things he'll do is he'll actually sell people uncooked cuts of meat so he'll get him from his distributor and then if somebody wants to cook it at home they don't want to go to the grocery store and they want a nice cut he'll prepare the little bill including the the uncooked beet and I asked them hey you know given that restaurants have a different supply chain couldn't you know give it to everybody speaking of flexible could a customer call you and say you know I'd like to get a you know giant sack of vegetables or I want to get some industrial toilet paper the kind that they have in offices but you know you don't get in the grocery store because that's a different supply chain so if you really needed to give food and your grocery store was too busy or you didn't want to deal with the crowds or you're trying to get something like toilet paper try calling try calling a

[12:28]

paper try calling try calling a independent restaurant and just say hey if you can order these items for me from your regular suppliers just give me a call and I'll come pick them up and I'll give you whatever markup so that's one another option that's out there I guess Andrew Yang's was his campaign manager who tweeted today I can't believe Andrew yang endorsed Joe Biden what a sellout
wad so I guess Andrew Yang's I think it's a campaign manager not too happy did you see the Joe Biden video with Bernie oh my god it looks so bad so birdie was poorly lit and he looks like it looks like some troll under the bridge like Biden looked like somebody put makeup on him did you wonder about that who got close enough to Biden to put all that makeup on him that could've his

[13:30]

that makeup on him that could've his wife actually so so he looked the body looked confused and lost of course he was reading off a teleprompter even though he was were talking to his good friend Bernie I'll tell you bite him is completely awkward is exactly that where I was going for they were both awkward and I don't think Biden has mastered the the medium you know Biden is good at a crowd he's good to use a go to retail politician you know shake hands and stuff but man well you put him just in front of a camera and he's got to talk to somebody on video he loses all of his spark it was really hard to watch here's the bad news I hate to say there was a there's a thread that I tweeted from a ER doctor who says that they've given hydroxychloroquine to pretty much everybody in the ICU so if they get to that point he said they all get it and as far as he could tell doesn't make any

[14:31]

as far as he could tell doesn't make any difference now he was specific to say I'm only talking about the ones who are already in the ICU so they're in bad shape but his view the hydroxychloroquine at least just anecdotally that I've seen no difference doesn't work at all so factor that in we would like to think that it still works if you get it early but we might be surprised and that's part of the reason that I was saying at the top there that we don't have a plan that doesn't still cost hundreds of thousands of lives maybe a million I think we're we're probably back to a million are we because if we just go to work and work for three years and the virus keeps pecking at us you should kill a million of us in three years there was something that Trump said today at the taskforce press conference that I'll bet I'm the only person who noticed let's see if anybody any of you noticed

[15:32]

anybody any of you noticed he used a phrase that he's got in trouble for before and he was just doing a monologue about how bad the presses and he used this phrase you people now what he said to you people he was not addressing anybody and he wasn't I don't think he was even answering a specific question form a buddy he was just doing a monologue about how bad the press is and when he was referring to them collectively in the room because and you people bla bla bla bla bla I'll bet you didn't catch it at all right because it was just part of a you know unimportant sentence well in law than you people do this remember how much trouble he got in when he said the same phrase and you people when he was answering uh what is the name of the reporter for NPR who is African American and everybody said oh you people you people we've seen this before the only only time anybody says

[16:32]

before the only only time anybody says you people we know what he means racist dog whistle racist dog whistle nobody uses that phrase you people unless they're racist except he just used the sentence was just talking about a group of people exactly the way he was talking about it before so Oh somebody didn't notice it yeah somebody didn't notice it yeah so you people is depressed obviously so I like that you slipped that in there I don't know if that was I don't think it was intentional but that worked out to his favor here's something that's really clever about what Trump is doing right now
now yeah yeah Beach is you have each yum each Health Center is her name the the report thank you so here's what Trump is doing this clever now I don't think he's doing it as a strategy but bad does it work well as a strategy so what would the what would the Democrats most like

[17:34]

the what would the Democrats most like to attack a trumpet for in the fall well they've tried every kind of attack but I think the one attack that were they'd really like to make is he he doesn't listen to science right is it the one thing they really wanted nail him odd is not listening to the experts and he's going to go into the election after several months of doing nothing but conspicuously and publicly following the advice of the experts even while half the country is thinking the experts are wrong so you've got Trump is in a perfect situation one of his greatest weaknesses he's doing the opposite of it in public every single day listening to experts what are the experts saying listen listen to the experts experts experts experts so the Democrats are not going to have much to lead on oh yeah they'll have this the Democrats are gonna say sure he did listen to the experts at one time but he's not

[18:35]

experts at one time but he's not listening to the climate model experts what about that to which I say with their long-range prediction models are you saying he should listen to them more because their long-range prediction models are so reliable so even climate change has largely been taken off the table number one because the price of carbon if you will just drop to point where I don't know what it what would be compatible with it is there anything compatible price-wise with $20 a gallon gas or whatever oil or whatever it is so I guess they came to a new deal so prices but I go up a little bit but still still prices are gonna be better alright so if they can't if they can't go after Trump for listening to experts and they can't really blame him for not putting too much credibility and a long term prediction model because we just watched one that people were too

[19:36]

just watched one that people were too happy with even though I think it was good other people know but here's the other thing he's doing this clever politically is that you don't know which way he's going to go in terms of his ultimate recommendation have you noticed that Democrats are really really quiet about what they would do listen to this dogma stop barking hello hello dog miss now barking there are a lot of Democrat Pandits there are a lot of Democrat politicians I've never seen them be shy before about what they would recommend if they were president I can think of almost every other topic you could ask any pundit you could ask any politician that's a Democrat and say what would you do in this situation that's different from what President Trump would do and they'll say well let me tell you if I were president Iowa do X and y and z and the president's doing a and B and C and

[20:36]

the president's doing a and B and C and that's all wrong obviously but what the president is doing by waiting and holding his decision and you don't know you really don't know what it's going to be is it go some people go to work on May 1st is it wait till the middle of June you really don't know so all of the Democrats can't describe what they would do you know why because if they accidentally say here's what I would do and the president comes down in the same the same place and says here's what I would do and it turns out to be exactly what the Democrats said one should do they got nothing so they have to stay silent on what they would do until he goes first so they can be on the other side you see that right you just watch for how no Democrat will give you an opinion you will not see one peep from Nancy Pelosi or Chuck Schumer about specifically what they do though they'll complain about process and you know who

[21:39]

complain about process and you know who talked to who and what was the timing of things should another sooner yeah but what you're not going to see is their recommendations you're not going to see that so he says well my mind just got blown because you just realized that it's not there right you didn't notice that it was missing until I pointed it out and you're like yeah why is this the only topic in the world that not a single Democrat has voiced a specific opinion on here's what I would do I do it may 1st I do it this way not gonna see it so I've never seen the I've never seen any president running for re-election who had such a commanding position I mean you could say Reagan you could say Reagan but I mean this looks like even more commanding because at least Reagan was Reagan ran against an opponent who feasibly could have done

[22:39]

opponent who feasibly could have done the job you know maybe he didn't like his policies but he could have done the job you know Mondale but Biden doesn't even look like he could do the job so here's the funniest thing oh you have to do this wait maybe I'll do it if you didn't watch the live stream or even if he did you may not have watched it this way so if you watch the live stream of Biden talking to Bernie there were lots of comments than were happening and if I could find it I'm gonna turn it off the sound and I just want to reach I just couldn't read the comments all right now keep in mind that this is a it's a Biden event and so you expect that most people you know they'll be troll of course of course they're gonna be trolls they hear what the Democrats are saying we are effed only way Biden will ever win wake up Louisville fool fool only way to beat

[23:41]

up Louisville fool fool only way to beat Trump is Bernie for VP answer the question Biden is just as secretly corrupt as Obama all right now keep in mind I'm not skipping any compliments so I'm not selectively picking the most insulting ones there are no supporters of Biden on the Biden livestream look for yourself I know you don't believe it I know you don't believe it look for yourself you have to do this go find the video and so this is what if you hold it in this orientation I feel it this way I think the comments go away but if you turn it this way the the comments will stream by I'll just read some more how do i govern binder trump pick one Oh screw this I'm out but Biden is reading well today didn't bite and say you wouldn't change anything this is bogus

[24:46]

Joe Biden can't form a sentence oh my god
god Bernie VP or Nina Turner out of that surprised Biden is communicating clearly this is a train wreck Trump is guaranteed to win never voting for by DH and ever again I swear I swear folks I'm not skipping any good ones I'm not I know you don't believe me I know you don't believe me but you have to go look yourself and a Biden event one of the most important events of the campaign season he couldn't find anybody who had come to his live stream and say good things about none none did anybody say anything good about Bernie yeah now they're mad at him for for doing this
the closest one that's good is divided we fall together we are stronger so that's obviously a Democrat but notice that that's really about Bernie helping Biden so all she's the only thing she's

[25:48]

Biden so all she's the only thing she's complimenting is that Bernie he's gonna help bind another Biden is good that but they're working together so even though even the best thing they could come up with is not so good it's also good anyway that's just the screamingly hilarious so Steve Maddens podcast is Banias war room pandemic or is it pandemic bandhans war room it's one of those but pandemic I think is the title so I had never I never listened to it but today I guess they got booted off a Twitter and if somebody gets booted off a Twitter well I'm gonna go listen to that you know I I don't listen to a lot of podcasts I heard good things about it but I'd never hadn't been really incentive to go consent device to go get it and then spend time listening to it but as soon as I already got booted off of Twitter I thought well he's got something to say

[26:50]

thought well he's got something to say let's go see what that's all about so I don't think they even know exactly why they got booted off but the the proximate cause the the one that seems obvious is that they had some episodes about China they talked about Oregon Oregon harvesting and we girls and whatever else and so I don't I guess I was good enough to get kicked off of Twitter I don't think that it didn't sound like it's temporary I think they're just kicked off so I did the link to it and I listened today's to today's episode that was really good it's actually like a well made Chow and I didn't know I didn't know what to expect but they held my interest all the way through it was it was a high let's say high entertainment to time ratio so it's quite good so I recommend it you just can't find the links on Twitter but you can see a link to it on my Twitter feed if you're looking for or just

[27:51]

feed if you're looking for or just google it go to the web page so here's something that'll really mess with your mind I don't know if this is true so it's been reported but keep you know keep a little skepticism hold hold back a little skepticism on this one but it's so delicious if it's true that I have to tell you about it even though I don't fully trust it and there's an official French report they did some study and they found out that in several countries there's a very strong correlation between cigarette smoking and your outcomes with coronavirus it turns out that being a lifetime cigarette smoker protects you from coronavirus protects you from coronavirus and here's the fun part not just a little bit not just a little apparently it's a I get

[28:51]

apparently it's a I get difference right now remember have you noticed that when the doctors are talking about comorbidity correct me if I'm wrong but when they were originally talking about comorbidity and and here's another dog that's not barking so you have to fact-check me on this right so just use your memory and see if this is true a month ago when doctors talked about comorbidity the the other health factors that might kill you if he got coronavirus correct me if I'm wrong tobacco was prominently on the list smoking tobacco it was it was in the top four or top five I think now listen to a doctor today or yesterday when they they list their list of comorbidities smoking isn't on the list anymore it just sort of dropped off the list now I don't know if the people who forgot to include it

[29:54]

if the people who forgot to include it on the list just forgot about it and it's a coincidence maybe maybe they think it's covered with hypertension or or something else but but am I wrong listen to the doctors when they talk about the the other health conditions and I think they just stopped saying tobacco it could be just a wait and see now the other thing that was interesting about it is that people who used to smoke and quit still got quite a bit of protection compared to someone who never smoked so the the worst thing that you could do is never smoke cigarettes now I heard somebody in the comments speculating that there was I guess if you know things about ACE to receptors which I don't but if you're smart enough to talk in those terms you say stuff like well it makes perfect sense because the tobacco sort of you know impinges on

[30:56]

the tobacco sort of you know impinges on those receptors you know and degrades them and those receptors are needed to pick up the virus so it actually makes sense smoking will degrade the very receptors that are necessary from the virus so somebody says the the new medication might be a hydroxychloroquine and tobacco plus plus a zipper bison zinc I guess so no word on marijuana smoke but I'm not going to take any chance I'm gonna smoke as much marijuana as I can just in case you know I don't take any medical advice for me no no more true words have ever been spoken I'm just saying that marijuana is approved medical it's approved medication for a variety of conditions and if you wanted to use an off-label and smoke like crazy to protect yourself from the coronavirus

[31:57]

to protect yourself from the coronavirus I would say that you're a very shaky ground because first of all I don't think marijuana smoke effects your lungs the way tobacco smoke does so let me be serious for a moment I would not expect I would not expect that even if it's true that regular tobacco smoke protects your lungs from coronavirus and I'm skeptical of that but even if that's true it does not follow that marijuana smoke would do it because they do really act very differently for example you don't get lung cancer for marijuana smoke so some of you are gonna argue with that but you can go argue with the data all right here's something interesting and I talked the other day about that movie there was claiming that the CIA was you know controlling the Hollywood movie movie stuff and causing them to message things to the public to brainwash us I'm

[32:58]

things to the public to brainwash us I'm gonna make a general statement here's a general statement in the long run in the long run all social media platforms and all news platforms will come to be owned by intelligence services in the long run now that doesn't mean it's already happened but it's it's obvious that there's some influence now but if you wait long enough it's the nature of the intelligence services that they know how to sort of burrow in you know they get a little foothold then they then they get another then they get another so based on everything I know about the world if you wait long enough every social media platform every app that has any impact on anything and every news source should eventually come to be owned by intelligence sources now it could be

[33:58]

intelligence sources now it could be ours it could be another country but I don't know that there's an exception because it's too tempting and the stakes are too high so of course they would of course they were trying so that's just a general statement I don't know if this is true either can't believe anything anymore but apparently Adam Schiff allegedly announced that he wanted to hold the Intelligence Committee meetings by zum-zum is the video conferencing software that has its servers in China now I think they're trying to fix that but at the moment zoom is literally famous for being the least secure platform in the world if you tried to be secure from China specifically it would be the least secure thing you could possibly do and Adam Schiff is going to use this for the Intelligence Committee now if tomorrow I find out that was fake news don't say I didn't suspect it okay

[34:59]

news don't say I didn't suspect it okay because it's you know this story's a little on the nose that I've used that example before when a story seems a little too perfect your way today and it turns out it didn't happen it's fake news I'm gonna say this was a little too on the nose it could be their shift says we will use teleconferencing and then maybe somebody added the Zoom part because they thought it was funny so you could find out that that's not true by tomorrow I would guess so India India has an app for tracking their population and contact tracing I don't know the details but we shall know we shall know if India has any success with that because they have one thinking to use it and I think that was the main stuff I wanted to talk about but there's one other thing I need to do and maybe if you have any questions you could ask

[36:00]

if you have any questions you could ask them in the comments but I got to give myself a haircut now this is normally Christina's job but we're in social isolation so I can't go to the barbershop and Christina can't do it so I have to cut my own hair so if you don't mind to have any questions [Music] ah that feels good slide over to dr. Shiva's scope oh
that's the business that's some good stuff right there what do you think of the governor of Michigan oh I don't know I don't really know too much about the governor's it does seem to be interesting that President Trump is having this love fest with all the

[37:00]

having this love fest with all the governors whoever thought that would happen but but I think he's playing it perfectly do you think there will be a vaccine I do not I don't think there will be a vaccine now or ever there might be a vaccine that they call it a vaccine and it might might work for some people some of the time but at this point I would not bet on it by the way I'm using you as a mere because I'm watching myself here [Music] mhm
mhm I've been blocking people by like crazy [Music] because a lot of people are coming after me the last couple days so it's been quite a block of home when I think of Trump's press conference I thought it was one of his best I like how he

[38:01]

was one of his best I like how he co-opted it to turn it into basically a campaign ad with us showing his campaign commercial that was that was pretty funny yeah you know I think foul she did have a solid by volunteering to get up there and to clarify that trope always did what ouchy asked him to do
[Music] whatever you wanna say is okay [Music] so starting around the end of April or May second or so you're going to see all the characters of the Dilbert comic wearing facemasks or work you from home so the Dilbert comic is going to go the way of it's gonna be good the way the rest of the world and the characters will be wearing masks for a while except I have to predict what the when they'll stop wearing masks and I don't know what

[39:01]

stop wearing masks and I don't know what that's going to be [Applause] [Music] [Applause]
[Music] those what they actually we have Hatch Act oh you should block yourself all right well you don't have to ask them watch the rest of this
somebody says they're stoned and eating a Big Mac well good for you
all right that's all I got for now and I will see you all in the morning and tonight you're gonna have the best night of sleep so just think about here's your

[40:03]

of sleep so just think about here's your assignment if you tried to get to sleep and you have the thoughts I want you to imagine getting your hair cut or if you're a woman imagine you know having your hair done so as a thought to relax you just picture yourself getting your hair cut how it feels the sound of the Clippers the smells the whole experience and just put yourself in that scene because it's sort of a relaxing situation it's sort of a relaxing situation because someone else is doing the work so try that would be good diversion all right that's all for now I will talk to you in the board