Episode 898 Scott Adams: How Many Grandmas Would You End to Get Back to Work? Make Your Case

Date: 2020-04-07 | Duration: 59:11

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: Jake Tapper retweets George Conway President Trump treats “press” like they treat him Graph purporting to show pneumonia reported as coronavirus The acceptable amount of dead Grandmothers?

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## Transcript

[0:08]

pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom hey everybody come on in it's time for a coffee with Scott Adams this is the place this is the time and 15 billion years of evolution in this universe and it brought you all to this moment think about it from the Big Bang all the way to this morning everything had to happen exactly the way it did to get you in here for the simultaneous simple kind of amazing if you think about it and if you'd like to enjoy the simultaneous supey you don't need much all it takes is a couple member glasses tanker chelators died in a canteen drunker 5 sky vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine here the day the thing that makes everything better including the pandemic it's called the simultaneous up go better than the

[1:11]

simultaneous up go better than the hydroxychloroquine azithromycin and zinc all put together doesn't equal one cup of coffee I have spoken that is my medical opinion do not doubt my medical opinions alright so there's something called the medical supply chain act being noodles about in Congress to get our medical supply chain back from China so that we don't find ourselves in this situation again can you believe we're even debating that is there anybody in Congress who if you brought this act up for a vote today is there anybody in Congress who would say you know I thought about it and I really do think we should keep our most critical pharmaceutical products in China yeah III think I'm gonna back keeping it we're we're we're in the most risk why don't they just pass that right now what

[2:12]

don't they just pass that right now what why does that take 30 minutes to wait is there anybody on the other side why do we even have a Congress to debate stuff like that they should just say does anybody any objections no okay we're gonna go do this so Jake Tapper got a little uh well I would like to say trouble but he got he did something provocative today because he retweeted Trump critic George Conway and George Conway had said that the president is 100% insane which was in response to somebody else's tweet so Jake Tapper retweeted George Conway saying that the president is 100% insane and then people said hey Jake Tapper you're taking sides you can't agree with somebody who says the president's insane and then Jake Tapper had to tweet back and explain to people how Twitter works now I'm just

[3:16]

people how Twitter works now I'm just gonna take Jake side completely sorry I know you don't like it but sometimes things are unambiguous this is one of those unambiguous situations a retweet doesn't mean do you agree with it who started that rule that's not a rule there's no rule that says if you retweet someone else's opinion therefore it means you endorse it or agree with it especially if you're a news person if somebody makes news with their opinion you can retweet that stuff so I this happened the reason this bugs me is because it happens to me I will often like a tweet that I don't agree with because I like that it happened all right you know I might want to look at it again or I might want to call your attention to it there's something noteworthy about it you know it's worth looking at so you know I'll just hit it with a you know with a heart maybe so it's easier to find later or so

[4:18]

maybe so it's easier to find later or so other people can see it liking and retweeting things is not an endorsement so you need to get rid of that thought from your head so Jake was completely right about that um pom-pom let's see how much do you love watching Trump treat the press the way the press treats Trump because everybody's complaining that the president is you know sort of inappropriately insulting and pushing back on the press and the press briefings and I'm thinking to myself I don't think so I don't think he's pushing back in a way that's out of scale with what they're doing he I think he's just responding in kind and he's just the first time you've ever seen it you've never seen anybody who is being abused in public just abused the abuser in public usually if somebody's being abused in public they just sort of take it you know the the press will be asking

[5:19]

it you know the the press will be asking all these gotcha questions and the you know the politician might act a little peeved but they basically play along with the the charade that that any of this is good for the public if they answer the question shrub just doesn't play along when they ask a gotcha question he attacks them personally to which I say is that is that unfair if somebody goes into the you know the most important room in the United States you know at the moment wherever the president is I guess would be the most important room and they waste the public's time by asking questions that only serve the business model of the press and don't help the public whatsoever not even potentially there's no argument for it I mean all that conversation about is Trump making doctor advice when he talks about the hydroxyl chloroquine that's nothing but a whole bunch of gotcha stuff there's no content there because

[6:20]

stuff there's no content there because everybody knows the content the content is as clearly as anybody can say at 100 times it's not proven there is some optimism and here are the reasons for being optimistic there's not much downside that's it that's the whole story and the press waste the country's time to try to turn this into the story about how cleverly the question was answered was asked to catch the the president in an imperfect answer do you want to watch that is that why you turned on the TV to get information about the coronavirus crisis and instead of that you're watching you know some some reporter trying to make a star turn and make it about themselves in the clever way they ask the question so they can get some time in the news tonight I want to see the president absolutely eviscerate them in public which is what he does he just

[7:21]

in public which is what he does he just in front of the whole public he just tells the world that you're a piece of crap and you're wasting everybody's time and if the second question is the same thing the president will take the time to tell the second reporter well you know you're also a piece of crap and you're wasting the public's time you know fix yourself I can watch that all day long I wouldn't you know you could light up thirty-five reporters and I'll have them ask the same stupid gotcha questions and I would never get tired of the president saying you're a stupid reporter asking a stupid gotcha question next up well you're a stupid reporter asking a stupid gotcha question too next I mean I would never get tired of it I swear to god I can watch it all day long so good on the president for pushing back in what I think is proportionate way there's a graph going around the internet which everybody feels they need to forward to me it and

[8:25]

feels they need to forward to me it and it looks like a fake one to me so I called it out as looking like a fake and I'm going to see how good my instincts are so what the graph shows is in prior years what the I guess the curve for pneumonia look like the number of people who get diagnosed with pneumonia and every year it looked like it was going down from the year before but this career when it got to about two kovin season according to the graph it just fell off a table as if nobody was getting an ammonia diagnosis they were only getting coronavirus diagnosis diagnosis and the implication of the graph which I believe is not not real I think it's a fake fake data but we'll find out that's that's the fun part is finding out and the point if it is then it seems to indicate that the corona virus is now so bad and all people are doing is interpreting regular Damone

[9:25]

doing is interpreting regular Damone yeah as corona virus because you know they're not doing a a real check to find out why somebody died and so the thinking is that the corona virus is just over over categorised over counted so here's the thing here's what I think is sketchy about it it refers to a source but it doesn't link to a source if you see a graph that's that provocative and on the graph it says you know here's the link but it's just described it's not an actual link you can click and go look at and you can't even really easily type it in because it's like a you know long linker URL you wouldn't really type that in so yeah I'm seeing other people say fake graph so hint number one ish it mentions a source but it doesn't link to it in 2020 if you mention a source and don't link to it it's probably fake right secondly it's

[10:29]

it's probably fake right secondly it's too on-the-nose have you ever heard that phrase it's a sort of a Hollywood script writer phrase that's the first place I heard it where are you writing the script and then you write something into the script that's just a little too perfect it's like oh yeah that's a pretty big coincidence that doesn't look real at all that's called being too on-the-nose it's so perfect it can't be real so when they show this graph and all the other lines are you know conforming really well and then this one goes low and then it just drops straight down that's a little too on-the-nose right that's a little too exactly what the message is trying to be now that doesn't mean as false I mean you know that by itself because sometimes data is surprising but you start putting it together it's like okay it's a little too on the nose and it doesn't have a clickable link I say fake so I'm seeing different opinions here so

[11:32]

so I'm seeing different opinions here so if you think it's fake some of you think it's real maybe somebody can give me an idea the the first person I saw who I know to be credible from other comments said he looked at the graph and then looked at the source it's supposed to be from and it doesn't seem to match but that was just you know the first person to who commented so beware of graphs with no clickable link I would yeah we think 75% of those are fake just in general it doesn't mean that one is but it might be once again I put on my headphones and started periscope without clicking the option for you to ask questions so my plan for filling this hour with questions that you asked me live is once again ruined by the oddity of this user interface which doesn't let me think do things in the order that I think I want to do them the order that I

[12:32]

think I want to do them the order that I want to do them as I wanted to start it up and then to invite people in but apparently after if I invite people in and then started up but it's too late to go back then so how about those apples a lot of stories on Facebook of survivors who took the hydroxychloroquine so yeah I just saw a story on Laura Ingram's show in which a democratic politician said that the hydroxychloroquine probably saved her life here's a problem with every one of those stories there are a thing called anecdotal there's a reason that anecdotal has its own word and it's not the same word as scientifically demonstrated or clinical trials anecdotal is never reliable it can be true but you can't rely on it doesn't there's no information really being

[13:32]

there's no information really being transmitted with anecdotal stuff there's only the possibility of information so anecdotal information can tell you where to look it can tell you might be a good idea to do a study on this but by itself it doesn't tell you stuff so just keep that in mind I suppose everybody's saying the same thing but you can't you can't be reminded of that enough so I put I put very low credibility in the individual reports of people who say I took the drug and an hour later I was already feeling better and by the way I have heard those stories I have very much heard the stories from even personally I've heard at least one story of somebody who took it and it seemed to turn things around so quickly that it was hard not to attribute it to the drug because the timing was just it would have been a coincidence if it things turned around exactly that time so I think there's a good chance this is a good chance it works I think India

[14:33]

good chance it works I think India decided to open up and allow us to buy some from India because that's one of our biggest sources oh and then I'm I'm saying ridiculous stories about how people are trying to make it look like President Trump has some kind of financial gain from pushing the hydroxychloroquine yeah do you really need the need to like suppose it was true I'm not I when I saw those articles suggesting that the President had some financial gain in this I couldn't even open them and look to see what their argument is because on its surface is so ridiculous we you don't even have to need read that article let me explain why that's so ridiculous the idea is that the president is acting in a way that even without our reading the article I'm assuming this is what it's about they're pushing this drug who somehow he has some direct or indirect financial interest in the company and really it's just a big old trick to pump up the

[15:34]

just a big old trick to pump up the value of this Dok the somehow he came from that or his friends would or something here's our ridiculousness have you noticed he's the President of the United States and he's got a big old company the only thing that Trump can do that is good for him personally is to do a really good job for the country where everybody's watching that's the end of the story if you have to throw in oh he's really managing his job as president of the United States for this one little stock deal you're so far from reality and understanding other world works that you should not talk in public anymore because here's the deal if Trump does a good job with this coronavirus you know the public decides oh you know it wasn't perfect but I think yeah he got us through he will get reelected being reelected is the best thing he could do for himself his family his family business just simply doing a good job for the country is where all of his

[16:36]

job for the country is where all of his game lies there is no situation where President Trump could find some way some little angle that's good for him and his family personally and yet was somehow bad for the country it just doesn't exist it can't exist logically you can't have a situation where you're watching this guy so closely and he could possibly find anything find some clever way to enrich himself and his family at the expense of the country that's not a thing it would be a thing if we were watching you know I'm not saying that he would do it if we weren't watching I'm saying that it could be a thing if a president were not being watched you know you could imagine any leader could do nefarious things if nobody's watching but we're all watching you can't you can't possibly come up with any reasonable scenario where the cut where the president directly screws 309 people

[17:38]

the president directly screws 309 people but he makes hey I made a 20 percent gain on this one stock it's so crazy it's like it's beyond crazy it's 100 percent crazy as George the way would say all right here are the things we know it does seem that worldwide there's some kind of an elbow happening there's some kind of a thing happening right now in which it looks like things are getting better or at least the things are getting worse less quickly which looks like the beginning of things getting better and I will remind you what I told you that if it looks like you get a report that that hydroxychloroquine is working you better own some stocks because two days in a row that's a lot of green a lot of green amazon is up everything's up even pour a

[18:40]

amazon is up everything's up even pour a little bit coin is up Wow things are up a lot so yesterday I think was that day you know I warned you that you would not want to not own stocks on the day that somebody says you know this Hydrox chloroquine looks like it's working and sure enough yesterday was that day I mean we've had lots of hints but I feel like that the weight of the hints didn't become significant until yesterday wouldn't you say wouldn't you say that yesterday was sort of the moment that the whole country started to say maybe yeah maybe maybe it does work now I think what we needed to see was more anecdotal stories because they're convincing even though they're not scientifically valid but on top of that we needed to see that the curve was changing because you wouldn't believe that the drug worked unless it was actually showing a change in the curve

[19:40]

actually showing a change in the curve and I think New York City is starting to demonstrate that and I think I think the news in the coming weeks will be mostly about hospitals that are not over capacity so I think that's it I'm seeing many questions about what I think of doctor Shiva's on this and I have not followed it so I don't have an opinion on that so you can stop asking because I don't I I don't know his opinion so here's here's here's the deal I think we've entered the period where things are gonna get better now the big question is going to be how to get back to work and I sometimes I see comments that so disappoint me in the at the I

[20:41]

that so disappoint me in the at the I don't I'm just so disappointed because I considered myself relatively ungawa everybody's gullible a little bit everybody can be fooled everybody can be wrong everybody can you know retweet something that turns out to be fake news so nobody's immune to it but I've but I feel you know if you were to rank human capabilities you know everybody's everybody somewhere on the on the line I feel like I'm relatively immune from believing the craziest stuff and when I see people who still believe the craziest stuff as in the comments it just actually shocks me for a moment and I think wow people will really believe just about anything will fun one thing all right so the big question in the coming week and more is somebody says

[21:45]

coming week and more is somebody says you're gullible to support tapper well you get the block now I remind you that you can disagree with my opinions all you want but whenever your comments are about my internal thought process you'll always get blocked okay
do I do I have to it looks like I'm gonna have to go do homework and listen to dr. Shiva so that I can tell you my opinion because I didn't say I don't like him I said I haven't listened to his opinion on this topic so if will you be happy if I go listen to his opinion is the reason that you want me to listen because you're not confident in it or do you think or is it because you are confident is in this opinion and you think I can extend it because I don't really understand your interest in me getting interested in him I mean his specific opinions on this

[22:47]

I mean his specific opinions on this topic is there some reason that yeah all right I'll look into it let me do it right now let me look up now I'll take too long forget it so anyway I tweeted this question this this survey I said how many net lives would you accept as lost you know how many extra people would you be willing to see die in order to reopen the economy and so my choices were and of course you know these poles are unscientific and everything but they can give you maybe a directional sense of where the where people are leaning and so I gave them the choices of up to 50,000 people extra dead to get back to work up to a hundred thousand or up to two hundred thousand i capped the survey at two hundred thousand because i don't think there's any chance that's gonna go over that wouldn't you say is it fair to say at this point that the number of deaths from coronavirus are unlikely to

[23:48]

deaths from coronavirus are unlikely to be over two hundred thousand for this country so i capped it at that and the answers were interesting because they were they were clustered on the two extremes so there were thirty two percent who said only up to fifty thousand extra deaths but there were forty eight percent who said up to two hundred and that in the middle was the smallest group of 19 percent sent up two hundred so it seems that people and i think i'll bet this would hold up I think this would hold up and what I'm saying is that people either say it's got to be as close to zero as possible or they say it almost doesn't matter those seem to be the views I don't think people are going to be able to fine tune where it is in that range so the people are going to say it's got to be as close to zero as possible so give me the smallest number and then other people are going to say the economy is so important that two hundred thousand sure

[24:49]

important that two hundred thousand sure a million yep yeah I would let a million people die to not destroy the entire economy totally worth it so given that nobody can really calculate the plusses and minuses of these we're just going by our bias whether we think the economy will kill more people or the coronavirus we don't really know we just feel like we know or we've got a hunch or an instinct about it they may or may not be good so the reason this is important is that you need to get a sense of the mood of the country because whatever the government comes up with it we need to buy into it and the reason I'm making a big deal about the public's opinion is that the public needs to give our government cover to make the right decision at the moment I think our system requires that our president continue to say things such as I will accept the zero deaths now as a politician and the leader that's really good right that when when

[25:50]

that's really good right that when when Trump says I will accept you know you know zero deaths are acceptable for once he's acting like a standard politician in the sense that there is no other right answer if you're the leader of the country which by the way I'm going to tie this into something regardless of what you think about abortion so forget your own opinion all right regardless of what you think of abortion whether you like it or hate it would you not agree that the President of the United States should always be against it here's my argument because you want the president the United States to say in every case no
no or what if there's a gray area I'm in favor of maximizing saving American lives that will restrict it to America because it's an American political question would you ever want a president no matter and again regardless of your own views so independent of what you

[26:52]

own views so independent of what you think would you ever be comfortable with the president who said look you know I think there is a case it seems like a little gray area to a lot of people in the country or a big gray area to a lot of people in the country but as your leader yeah I think that this class of people according to this number of the public you know who would consider that the unborn real people that yeah my opinion is that they can die now regardless of whether you think abortion is a good idea or a bad idea my opinion is that the leader of the country the you know the the one who has the most impact in leadership needs to always be on the side of maximum life even if it's not practical now I would still be okay with that leader saying you know as your president I have one view and it will never change I'll you know my view is that we should do everything we can to protect every life every possible life

[27:54]

protect every life every possible life every gray area life every life if you're an American I've got one job keep you safe keep you alive keep you happy it's not up to me to decide if you're worthy or saving you know as president I will never weigh in on the question of whether this person or this person is worth saving their life I will never engage in that because my job is to save you all now it's also a practical world since some decisions are tough so this abortion question is going to be to the states the states you decided maybe even Supreme Court you decided but because of my special job title as the person who protects everybody I'm the only person in the country who won't give you an opinion on abortion I won't give you my opinion be as president I shouldn't have won on life or death it's just always life if you the state want to make a different

[28:54]

you the state want to make a different decision I accept that you know that the country needs to have rules there's you know we have a democratic process and if that's the way it goes I'll support it but as your president never put me in a position where I'm deciding who lives and who dies you don't want that president and so again you know as a practical matter you want your president to agree with you on abortion because it's more likely you know things will go your way so I get that on a practical level but out of it on a moral ethical level I would never ever ever ever want the the number one leader of the country to ever decide who gets the livin who gets to die or even who is a person it just shouldn't be that person's decision ever so that said that to my point that the public needs to tell Trump what we're comfortable with in the life-or-death situation so

[29:55]

with in the life-or-death situation so some things need to come from the leader and sometimes the leader just needs to tell the country where we're going and that's your best process there are there are lots of cases certainly with the commander-in-chief situation where you really you just need the leader to just tell you which way you're marching and then if you're being smart about it you follow the leader because that's just your best system in some situations this is not one of them this is a situation in which the leader is necessarily handicapped and you want him to be you don't want to change that because again you don't want your president to decide who's worthy of life and death I do not want their leader the number one leader of the country to stand in front of the world and say you know I think that I'm going to favor the people who want to get back to work and I'm going to have 50,000 grandmothers die shouldn't be his decision it shouldn't be in his job description even though it has to be right ultimately you has to make the decision

[30:56]

ultimately you has to make the decision you can't change that but I think we need to give him some cover and this is not about Trump it's just about whoever as president the the citizens need to give the leader some cover now what I mean by that is that we need to we need to really wrestle with this question of what we're we're willing to accept collectively as a risk to get back to work so we as non politicians can say this and and watch me say it right out loud and I can only say this because I'm not president if I were president I just shut my mouth but let me say it as a citizen somewhere at around less than 50,000 extra deaths over the course of the year I would be comfortable with the trade-offs to get us back to work so that's my number I feel that if you want to give the president some cover which allows the the country to make rational

[31:59]

allows the the country to make rational decisions and allows the President to do what he needs to do as opposed to being bound by what I consider the most sacred rule of the presidency is he doesn't get to decide who to kill all right so you need to take that away from him because he doesn't want it I mean you know can't read his mind but I don't imagine anybody would want to have that on their conscience want that to be part of their decision but we can take that away we can fix that collectively and it doesn't mean that we all have to agree right so it's not about it's not even about the country getting on the same page and then then the president can do that too it's more about the more about the it's more about the public being adults and we and here's what I mean here's the adult view the adult view is some number of people are going to die either way I think this will be the path with the least death and destruction so I choose this that was that's what an adult would

[32:59]

this that was that's what an adult would would say here's what a child would say a child would say oh sure the 50,000 s is fine as long as it's not your family right I just saw this on Twitter that's a child's view the child's view as well you think differently if it were your family member that's just a child's view I'm not even gonna tell you what's wrong with it except that it's not an adult opinion so to the extent we can let us let us see if we can shame the child child opinions to the sidelines the old well you feel differently if it was your mother yeah of course I went that's that's not new information but we're adults we're gonna make decisions and it might be my family member who gets killed it was in the 50,000 it might be yours nobody wants that we still got to get back to work so uh I'm gonna so I put down my stake under 50,000 because I think we

[34:01]

stake under 50,000 because I think we can do that my guess is if you netted out the lives that have been saved and then you add in maybe there's more domestic abuse unfortunately so you know if you do the full net of how many people died because of the bad you know the economy taking a hit if you netted it it all up 50,000 is where I'm comfortable not happy nobody's happy right about 50,000 people dying but there is a point where you just say all right gotta be adult time to make an adult choice time to grow up time time to get on the team time to do what's good for the country time to take some sacrifice before the country so I I probably will bore you to death on this point I just want it to be more a part of the conversation and not ignored because for the next few days I think what you're gonna see is all the Talking Heads talking like children because it's a little too dangerous to be an adult in

[35:02]

a little too dangerous to be an adult in public right now because critics will jump on you well what I'd like to see is is in the next week I want you to see if the at least the public pundits and the opinion people want you to see if I can get them to shift a little bit from talking about the question of you know orange man bad orange being good and stuff like that too we are gonna have to make a decision about people dying and and let's see if we can even have that conversation and you know are we even capable of talking about it in public so I'd like to this week I would like to see the public pundits be able to give a number and say you know there's no way around this there's gonna be a number on the number of people who die there's going to be a number so if you're not willing to say your number out loud you shouldn't be in the conversation now maybe for this next week people want to still be children and say well let's kill nobody

[36:03]

and say well let's kill nobody well I'm not going to do anything that would kill my grandma let's see if we can reduce that opinion and get people to you know if it means the fifty thousand or a hundred thousand this is where I'm comfortable and it's not until all of us have at least given our number that the president is safe because if we've all given our number then he can say all right given all this input this is where the country is this is you know the mood of the room I can I can now pick from that palette of options that the country has given me but what you don't want is your president out there naked he's got a blank canvas and then he just puts his finger in the middle of the canvas and says that's my number of people I'm gonna kill to get the economy back up so I can get elected that's what it's gonna look like right it's gonna look like the president decided to kill however many people so we could get reelected that's how it's going to be spun so if you want to take that take

[37:05]

spun so if you want to take that take that risk away from your leaders so we can make a decision that make sense for the country give a number commit you don't have to be right but at least make it safe for other people to give a number you got to make it safe here's a little persuasion rule that it's sort of implied in what I'm saying but I'm going to say it explicitly people can get used to almost anything pee can get used to almost anything so the first time you hear hey hey Bob you're gonna have to make a decision or a hundred thousand people gonna die you know it's up to you do you want a hundred thousand people to die well the first time you're presented with this decision where you put yourself in the president's shoes and you say okay am I gonna let 50,000 people die that might not have died out in other situations

[38:06]

and and the first time that you have to go through that thought process is jarring and you're gonna want to just change the subject but you need to kind of get used to it because it's not until we can comfortably say 50 thousand or a hundred thousand out loud in public just to show we can even talk about the topic just to show we're no longer shocked by it we have to we're gonna have to acclimate ourselves to be able to talk about these big numbers just so psychologically we can get to the other side so I'll be priming the pump for that what else is happening that you care about besides dr. Shiva it was called Vietnam that is a good analogy you know analogies don't win arguments but they're they're often entertaining and sometimes they can educate and the Vietnam example was was perfect yeah Vietnam was acceptable because we sort

[39:07]

Vietnam was acceptable because we sort of inched our way into it if we knew from the starts like now we're gonna lose this many people if we knew that on day one the public would have said I'm not down for that but if you say well we lost 100 people today and 110 the next day just sort of sneaks up on you that was a good example but you need to define how to get to that number okay let me define it for the billionth time I always define it as net meaning that you look at what the normal number of deaths are every year and then you look at this period this year and if normally we'd lose 40,000 people a month or whatever it is and this month we lost 45,000 I'd say the net is 5 now I don't care how many of those recruit a virus and I don't care how many is the you know reduced traffic accidents it's just all in the number why would you ever look at any number that wasn't net

[40:09]

ever look at any number that wasn't net and this is the part that if you have any training in you know doing financial analysis it gets really annoying when people ask you if important numbers are included in the figure because of course they are they're important numbers of course are included because they matter so you don't need to ask me about and here's where you don't ever need to do if you can think of something that would be different about the death count either more domestic abuse more suicide more death from economics you know whatever it is it's in the number so everything just everything you don't have to ask about the details if you can calculate it it's in there all right how many business owners had a stroke no one's counting that well again if you count just the total number of deaths this year compared to other years

[41:11]

this year compared to other years probably they would be very similar meaning you're probably always within I don't know 5% any month if you looked at any month in a normal year to the year before it's probably about the same number of accidents you know 5% difference so if you see a bigger difference than that during the coronavirus deaths you could reasonably attribute it to this situation you see just remember the lag yeah the elderly are more susceptible and they tend to vote for Trump true wouldn't you like to see a survey of people over 60 what if you asked if you ask the people you know say under 40 how many deaths would you be willing to except and I think you know what you'd find is a lot I think you would find that the younger people resent the elderly quite a bit because they feel

[42:13]

elderly quite a bit because they feel like the elderly had a good life and used everything up and left them nothing but debt in a smouldering world it's a little bit of an exaggeration but not too bad somebody asks what about the surge do we need to wait until after that well we do we do need to wait you know I'd say another week we'll have a good idea what's happening so we probably can't make a final decision for a at least a week and realistically we wouldn't make it then either it would probably wait two weeks but this is the point where we should start making the plans because whether or not that that surge you know is two weeks away or one week away I'm not sure we can predict that stuff so well but no matter when it comes you need to get to the other side to make the final decision but I feel like we can feel it comin in a way that we probably want to at least make the plan yeah I think people over 60 might

[43:16]

plan yeah I think people over 60 might be more flexible than people assume because you know there when you reach a certain age especially if you're 80 yeah I can imagine a lot of 80 year olds saying hey I had a good around you know if you if you ask me do I want if you ask the average 80 year old here's the deal we could give you an average of three more extra years of life but it's three years and your 80s and you're probably in the nursing home anyway so you get three more of those worst years of your life the last three or you could save the country so you get three years of crappy end of life or you can save the economy of the United States for your children and grandchildren what is the 80 year old say to that yeah I've got a feeling that they would very strongly lean toward I had a good run don't you think I think if you ask the

[44:16]

don't you think I think if you ask the people who are most at risk they would say yeah I'm scared you know and all that but you know if I have to choose I'm gonna choose the grandchildren I had a good run I don't need three extra years of this whatever this is when you're 80 so I would not assume that the that the elderly need the kind of protection as a class obviously individuals will differ but as a class I don't know if they're asking for the protection that we're offering you know given given the trade-off that it would hurt their grandchildren etc somebody says you first yeah now if people in their 70s I would expect to have a different opinion because 70s are actually still pretty good years I'm expecting that my 70s will be pretty good decade actually yeah as long as I stay healthy now the other thing is that

[45:20]

stay healthy now the other thing is that if if you're one of the older people who does not want to sacrifice your life you do have the option of taking extreme steps so you could you know do extreme social isolation and masking and stuff for another another X months until you felt safe so people who did not want to take the personal risk they were willing to take the class risk of like okay old people are gonna have a tough time I'll take that risk but I don't want to personally take the risk they have that option too they can reduce their own risk to practically nothing if they have the wherewithal to get social isolation I guess that's not available to everybody
so let's figure that out a young life is worth more than a lived life says somebody well I would say there's a lot of individual difference there as a good general statement sure somebody says the White House press

[46:21]

somebody says the White House press secretary is going is that news that just happened 70 year olds volunteered to clean up the mess of Fukushima that does not surprise me let's see if there's any news about the press secretary corners cast doubt on official coronavirus death tolls and CNN exclusive interesting interesting I'm going to just see what the headline is corners yeah cuz nobody's really testing them to see if they died from the corona virus so apparently there's just a mess with the reporting it so that's why I come out to the you have to look at just the total average deaths in the country year-to-year because I think that's the only thing that's gonna tell us what's going on somebody says I'm 61

[47:22]

us what's going on somebody says I'm 61 not ready to go still working in essential job well you know for the people who it seems to me then let me let me ask you this so the person who is 61 who works in an essential job and definitely doesn't want to die which I certainly understand would you feel more comfortable if they gave you the the z-pak and I druks hydroxychloroquine if they gave it to you as a preventive for a few months during the worst of the corona virus would you feel comfortable going back to work assuming you did all your social isolating and your masking and stuff with it would that make you comfortable enough if you just knew that you have that drug in you now my understanding is it doesn't prevent you from getting it and maybe it does but I don't think that's been demonstrated even anecdotally what the reason you would have it is that if you got the

[48:23]

would have it is that if you got the infection it would already be in your system so it would be the you know ouchie is 80 is he found she isn't 80 is he he's in great shape if he's 80
corners want to know where are the bodies well I don't think that there's any scandal of hiding bodies is there didn't you just hear that wasn't it one of the parks in New York City was going to be dug up for temporary mass graves do we do that every year with a regular flu do we build mass temporary graves in Central Park there's something going on here you can die with the virus but not from the virus that says somebody all right yeah so people are saying yes that they would feel comfortable going back now keep in

[49:23]

feel comfortable going back now keep in mind that for every person who has an actual medical like physical medical problem from the corona virus there are 25 people who have a mental problem from it so the psychological problem of coronavirus it's pretty big you know the risk of getting into worry and all that so if the hydroxychloroquine did nothing except make you feel more comfortable even if you weren't it still totally be worth it it causes depression in the long run I don't know what you're talking about ouchy is 79 people are saying he must okay he runs every day it looks like he's in good shape that's a good argument for being fit all of your life if you look at a foul gee he certainly presents himself as a much younger man and that would make sense if he runs every day so

[50:28]

would make sense if he runs every day so I have seen people saying that the White House spokesperson quit I don't know about that shouldn't the homeless be getting the virus we'll maybe we all need to bury all the ventilation you know if I had to guess I think that a whole bunch of big American companies are going to be really pissed off that they started making ventilators that we didn't need I feel like it's heading in that direction now of course it makes more sense to be more prepared versus underprepared so we should still be making those ventilators like crazy just in case but so somebody says Stephanie Grisham is reported to be leaving so maybe that's not maybe that's not confirmed alright okay I'm getting

[51:29]

not confirmed alright okay I'm getting confirmations to the comments the Stephanie Grisham stuff down that kind of makes sense doesn't it I don't even know what she looks like the spokesperson for the President of the United States I can't tell you what she looks like I wouldn't recognize her would you and I I think this president doesn't really need one of those it seems like an almost or at least in terms of the the public part where the spokesperson talks to the public don't really need that part so I can see why she might want to move on says she's returning to the the first lady's staff yeah alright she was reassigned to her previous post okay prisoners should get the Trump ills well we should all get the Trump pills obviously there's not a supply of them wouldn't you like to have some visibility on the supply so the

[52:32]

some visibility on the supply so the president said we you know we got X millions of pills from this source of this source is that enough is that a lot what are they doing with them are they allocating of can prisoners get them how about old people what about people who don't show symptoms so it's the most important variable in which we have no information at all and if Stephanie Grisham had been pushing the task force to give good information maybe that's why she get fired so think about this nobody's complained about the communication of the task force more than I have is that true would you agree that nobody has had more sharper deeper complaints about the quality of the communication from the task force than me I've been the harshest about that I think a total failure and communication specifically not telling the public a little bit better idea of at least what they know even if

[53:34]

idea of at least what they know even if they don't know things they should tell us what they don't know and what they do know about the supply situation then you know the hydroxyl chloroquine and the ventilators and everything else so I've been a the harshest critic saying that the whole things are just a just a horrible I don't want to use the word I was going to use but would it be a surprise to me to watch a person who is a professional in charge of this kind of communication have some conflict with the people who are blowing it in public every day now in my opinion the task force is blowing it every day like they're failing it's just an F in in communicating with the public I would say it's just a flat F day after day F F F F it's always the same reason it's not that the president isn't entertaining it's nothing he doesn't get good ratings it's not that the public doesn't enjoy it it's not that we don't learn things

[54:36]

it it's not that we don't learn things because we do and it educates us about you know and as socially isolated all that so there are lots of value to the task force presentations I watch most of them so I would say the value is very high but the skill in terms of the the primary message which is inform the public of the useful information that's just an app so imagine you're the professional who's most identified with the messages coming out of the White House you don't get to change how they do it because obviously they're not listening to her wouldn't you say you know I mean I don't think anybody was listening to her opinion so here she has watching the people who are doing the things she's supposed to be in charge of which is communicating and they're failing every day and they're not listening to her advice because you know they're not right yeah I mean you don't have to be in the room to know that if she just resigned it's

[55:37]

to know that if she just resigned it's because they weren't listening to her right I don't think there was another reason you know it had to be that she was not being taken seriously her her opinion and how to do this just wasn't winning the day apparently so yeah if I were her I think I would have quit if I had to be in charge of communication and wouldn't have any influence on it and then I had to watch the people who were who should be taking my advice go out there and fail just fail day after day after day and fail exactly the same way by not giving us any useful information in context that would drive you crazy how could you keep that job so of course she should leave all right that's about all I got for today I will try to
somebody says it's not in half let me be clear there is lots of value in the

[56:38]

clear there is lots of value in the press conferences so I'd like to see that lots of value but in terms of communicating the specific skill of communicating which is a subset of the value of the press conference just the communicating part is an F because they simply don't answer the important questions nor do they even tell you they can't answer them nor do they tell you they will answer them just completely avoiding all the important questions about supply and about getting back to work all right somebody says you're speaking from fear am i I know I get you blocked so for those of you who haven't figured out the pattern yet you never get blocked for disagreeing with me that's a hard rule you can disagree all you want but when you tell me what I'm thinking you get blocked because I need I want an audience that understands the difference

[57:40]

audience that understands the difference between you know me knowing what I'm thinking and I can be pretty accurate about that versus you know what I'm know knowing what I'm thinking if you say in public your opinion of what I'm thinking I'm just gonna block you because I don't have time for people like that in my world that's that's the lowest level of understanding your world imagining you can read somebody's mind and on that note I hope to see you later tonight 10 and 10 that's East Coast time 7:00 7:00 if you're in California and why wouldn't you be California is actually doing an unusually good job now isn't that weird it's weird that California is being held up as one of the successful states but I got a feeling it might be more to do with the fact that we Californians don't bunch up as much you know we don't get on subways we don't have public transportation I'm talking about Los

[58:40]

transportation I'm talking about Los Angeles in particular don't have public transportation don't have as many elevators I've got a feeling that there's just something about the fact that loss and loss Angeline's tend to drive their cars by themselves they don't have passengers in their cars so it's probably as much about lifestyle as it is about good management but anyway he's working out all right that's all for now I'll talk to you later tonight stay safe