Episode 887 Scott Adams: Grab Your Beverage and Get in Here!

Date: 2020-04-02 | Duration: 55:44

Topics

WARNING! Angry Scott Are the task force members taking Hydroxychloroquine? My grade on the task forces communication China’s body parts on demand program Expelling kids of China’s elite from American colleges Balaji Srinivasan vs. Adam Townsend Coronavirus impact on climate change

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## Transcript

[0:11]

hey everybody come on in dear it's time for coffee with Scott Adams and you have come to the right place this is where all the simultaneous sipping happens yeah it does and all you need is what what do you need a cup or a mug or a glass of tanker Challenger Stein the canteen jug or flask FSL of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine the other day the thing that makes everything including the pandemic better it's called the simultaneous hip go mmm white blood cell count increasing even as we sip it's amazing really well first an update on my presidency I candidacy as you know I'm I announced my run for president but I'm running as a emergency

[1:11]

president but I'm running as a emergency backup spare just in case Joe Biden is the nominee and he's not capable of being president but just in case something happens to President Trump let's say he decides to retire before November don't you want an emergency backup will all be your emergency backup do not vote for me if President Trump is still in the you know still in the election and still looking healthy vote for him instead if you're a trump supporter but if anything happens and your only other choice is Joe Biden I'm your emergency backup all right the unemployment numbers around today six point six million people filed for unemployment now according to my digital devices the number of people who work in the United States is about 139 million or at least you know recently that was the number so 6.6 million are unemployed or maybe

[2:14]

so 6.6 million are unemployed or maybe additionally unemployed but that's out of 139 people who were 139 million who are still working it's about 5% so today it was about 5% out of work I thought it was gonna be a lot more didn't you didn't you think the unemployment would be like 30% or something like that I feel like most people can't go to work but I guess people are getting paid people are telecommuting you know and maybe you will see that double next month I don't know but if it stayed that if 6.6 million then ended up being you know the worst of it I don't think it will seems like you would have to go up in the next couple of weeks but if it were we can get past that pretty easily the problem is that it could get worse but I don't think you should be too afraid of today's number because as a percentage it's manageable if you know

[3:15]

percentage it's manageable if you know unless it doubles and triples in the coming weeks here's my grade for the the task force working on the coronavirus I'm going to give it an F an F grade now they may be doing good things that we can't see I assume they are right yeah I assume that they're doing great work behind the scenes working hard I think it's all the right people working on everything and I think that they're moving heaven and earth and doing what they can I give them a failing grade because now it's been two weeks and I can't answer this question I watch every I watch every one of the press conferences and I can't answer the question when will we have enough masks seriously why I can't answer that question yet how about this one what will we have enough tests test kits but both for testing people that you know may or may not have it and for testing

[4:15]

may or may not have it and for testing the public in general what is that next week is it in four months you don't know I don't know it's the most basic thing you'd have to know in order to judge that your task force was competent and we don't know we don't even have a guess I don't know if it's a month or a year I don't know if we can ever get there how about the results of the Hydrox chloroquine now you feel like you're getting good information about how that's going no no you're not might be the most important thing that's going on and your task forces intentionally not talking about it and when they talked about masks they gave you the wrong information don't wear them so that was misinformation so of the two most important things where are we at tests well three really where are we at tests masks and knowledge about and supply of hydroxychloroquine the three things that I think are the most

[5:16]

three things that I think are the most important you have no visibility on after weeks now do you think that it's impossible to know those numbers or even even sort of directionally you know we think we can have it done in two weeks but it might take a month that would tell you something but I hate to be grading harshly but it's an emergency right I think in normal times I might might be a little more flexible but you have the entire psychology of the country which is the thing upon which your economy depends our the way we think about the economy is going to be the thing that makes it recover or or not and the way we're thinking about it is completely crippled by the fact that the three most important pieces of information in my opinion which is you know the availability of supplies generally but I would say mask was going to be more important hydroxychloroquine

[6:18]

to be more important hydroxychloroquine supply and you know and also I'd like to know how many people are being hospitalized there having the hydroxychloroquine early there was one doctor that was on laura ingraham show last night saying that it was a gay changer that rocks chloroquine was and that when that none of the people he gave it to for five days in other words the people who got it early enough in their symptoms none of them ended up being intubated and on ventilators none so you know it wasn't a it wasn't a controlled test but the doctor was saying that the odds of that happening given given all the other groups and what percentage of them get on ventilators he said that the odds of the the hydroxychloroquine not being the thing that made the difference or just vanishingly small at this point could be wrong but that's what it looks like at this point all right so I give the taskforce a failing grade for

[7:19]

the taskforce a failing grade for communication because their communication as a impact on our morale and our psychology psychology has an impact on the economy and if we break that you can't put it back together again too easily right right now the economy is not broken it's just sort of on a timeout which is very different it's not broken it's just paused and I if if we don't get this information pretty soon I don't know how much longer the country can hold that together because we're literally holding the economy together by will I mean that's not an exaggeration the entire economy of the world is being held together by our minds that's not an exaggeration because what we think of it is what it becomes and what it will be because if you think it's good do you invest if you think it's gonna be bad you fire your

[8:21]

think it's gonna be bad you fire your staff and you don't invest there's a completely different direction so task force please even if you have to lie to us and then you know correct it as you give better information when did we get Aven of desks when are we going to have this hydroxychloroquine that we could take you know early on enough of it you know and when when are we gonna have enough tasks it's you know here's what I don't want to say I'm trying not to swear because I'm getting really mad so I'll try to take it down a little level to maybe maybe I'll go a whole day without swearing who knows it's deeply irresponsible to watch these experts up there and there and our president simply spouting wrong numbers here's what I I'm just gonna swear okay I'm just going to warn you I can't get past this next action without using a

[9:21]

past this next action without using a curse word so send the kids away Tony debt you know turn down the volume whatever you want here's what I don't want to see today so I assume there'll be another coronavirus task force I don't want to see them spouting wrong numbers again oh we got 4,000 ventilators and I said 20,000 over here and 6,000 gloves and I said 4,000 masks you you don't give us wrong numbers tell us how many you need how close are you to that how many are in the pipeline that'd be good don't give us wrong numbers like we're idiots all right you have been wrong you the professionals both the politicians of the experts you've been wrong about everything you've been wrong about the mask you've been wrong about two hydrochloric Wayne you've been wrong about the China numbers probably wrong about the models you've been

[10:22]

about the models you've been wrong about everything and you stand in front of us and you say these wrong numbers like that is supposed to make us happy you're blowing this smoke up our asses in the middle of a goddamn emergency well the economy is melting down and you're giving us this wrong numbers like we're idiots like we're idiots oh it's 4,000 oh I guess that's good well go back to work now about 4000 ventilators is that a lot is that too much give us a piece of information you goddamn incompetent I'm not gonna go one more day being okay with this it's a emergency give us some useful numbers for once how about not lying to us and we know it how about that if you don't know the numbers just say you're incompetent just tell us and maybe we can do

[11:23]

just tell us and maybe we can do something about it but please stop lying to us about the numbers the wrong numbers don't help us at all not even a little bit if you can't put them in context don't even talk just let somebody else talk all right this is for you mr. president I love you mr. president but we can't have another day of these wrong numbers out of context right it's there was way too long you know I was a little bit patience for a while but now I'm mad all right you gotta fix this today you got a few hours mix up make up some numbers if you don't have good numbers just make up some numbers jesus christ

[12:24]

all right here's something interesting or not I got a message on LinkedIn a lot of people are sending me useful information that I can you know send around to somebody and apparently there's a company I will name the company that can make 70 million tests gets for the corona virus in two weeks so they're capable of making 70 million tests in two weeks but they're not doing it because they need a big check so right now they don't know how to sell it like individual hospitals and stuff they don't really they're not set up for that they're more set up for you know selling big big bunches so I've passed that along to you know my my most helpful of contacts in the government and you know maybe this is a real company and maybe they can really do that maybe it makes a difference but I was kind of shocked that at this point in the process there would be a company that makes test kits I think they need

[13:25]

that makes test kits I think they need to be validated and approved or something too but there would be a company that could make this many test kits it's in another country it's another American company and we haven't already climbed down there their pants to figure out what they can do and how quickly they can do it so I'm a little skeptical that as of today there would be a company that can make 70 million test kits and yet hasn't got a productive contact and some government to send them a check I'm a little little skeptical but I pass it along anyway if you're following along on zoom' the application that lets you make a video call with your teammates you probably know that there's a little bit of a problem there that's becoming more of a problem I think as time goes by that the lot of their engineers live and work in China and some of the traffic goes through servers in China so if you're doing a top-secret business meeting

[14:27]

doing a top-secret business meeting about your technology and you're using zoom which is the most popular software for doing this probably I don't even attend businesses or using it routinely especially now your your secrets are actually going through a server in China when you know that China is stealing our secrets it's not like it's not like you worried that they might it's way past its way past worrying that they might steal your secret IP they are because it's the most confirmed documented thing in the world so zoom has a problem now I will just tell you that there is a zoom alternative which is which can be packaged up right now it wouldn't work for everybody because you'd have to scale it up but if there's any me out there who would like to invest in a zoom alternative that does not go

[15:29]

a zoom alternative that does not go through China contact me so I'm looking for somebody was a billionaire who can write a big check I'm not I'm not going to be doing like fundraising or anything but if you're a billionaire or you're in the government and you can write a check for a million and a half to you know just develop it to the point of feasibility it's mostly already written so so the actual code was mostly done and I've actually used it and you can make a call and it looks just like zoom but it would need to be packaged up in a company form and you'd have to have enough servers online to handle the handle the volume etc so it would be a big job to productize it but if anybody if anybody's interested in that just tweet at me you know I'll hook you up and I am connected to that just full disclosure I am connected to that effort so just so you heard that okay let's see

[16:32]

so just so you heard that okay let's see I have a question does China's death tolls which which we know are all bogus but I wonder if it includes the political prisoners that they that they carve up for parts now if you didn't know that it's apparently it's well documented to the point of no data babbit so China is using political prisoners for parts they're actually keeping them alive I assume that they have anesthesia but in order to transfer organs from someone to someone else you need the donor to be alive China can deliver a heart and lung transplant on demand on the hour that you want it now you don't have to be much of a transplant expert to know that if you can deliver a specific organ on a specific date it's because she killed somebody there's there's no mathematically statistically there's just no way that

[17:34]

statistically there's just no way that somebody would coincidentally you be a donor within driving distance and you know within an hour of when you needed the surgery so so the experts know for sure because and they know that the operations are happening because Westerners sometimes go over there and get the operation because they can't get a heart and lung on-demand anywhere else because nobody else is killing people for hearts and lungs so I wondering you know if it's true the high numbers I saw some numbers like over 300,000 people might have died from the corona virus in in China now imagine if 300,000 died you know most of them are probably elderly and would not qualify for any kind of a transplant but how many people who were let's say Chinese party officials who could be saved with let's say a lung transplant because you know lungs go bad with the coronavirus company how many communist party members in China you

[18:37]

communist party members in China you know people who are rich or connected how many of them are alive because they killed a political prisoner and took that person's heart and lungs and put it into the Chinese official probably more than one you know I don't know could be a few just put that out there all right I suggested I put this idea out there I was just seeing what kind of appetite there was for this yeah but I want to tell you how clever this is so on the surface it doesn't sound clever but then I'll tell you what the clever thing is all right so I tweeted let's start expelling the kids of Chinese elites who are going to college in the United States in alphabetical order wonderful every death from fentanyl or rotavirus now of course it wouldn't take long before they were all gone but there are quite a few children of the the rich people the elites the connected people

[19:37]

people the elites the connected people in China who as a status symbol go to college in the United States because if you're the Chinese official you'd like to say that your kid went to Harvard or Stanford or some good American College and of course they they take this training back to China we're trying to you know in most cases and China of course tries to destroy the United States with this newly learned knowledge and so now the the colleges of course the universities they make a lot of money from the foreign students because they can charge them the full price you know that foreign students are not necessarily getting scholarships so it's profitable for the colleges that's why they do it a lot but here's the here's the strength of the idea if you just said to Danny you know just today all kids of Chinese elites go home today now that would make a big

[20:40]

go home today now that would make a big statement but it wouldn't be nearly as good as my idea of doing it in alphabetical order now I don't know if you ever saw a Schindler's List but this is a persuasion technique I learned from a scene and Schindler's List meaning that you know without going into details a bad guy was executing prisoners somewhat randomly and the prisoners had to wait and wonder if they were next now as bad as it is to be executed that happens kind of quickly right yes you had to have you kind of dead quickly as bad as that is but not knowing if in the next five minutes you're gonna be shot in the head because you're watching other people get a shot and had it right in front of you has got to be far more psychologically devastating right I mean Stan's treason so here's the idea instead of just

[21:41]

so here's the idea instead of just saying all Chinese children of elites have to leave the colleges and go home and that would be like pulling the band-aid off all at once it would be bad it would get their attention they wouldn't like it at all but it would also be over really quickly so it's not nearly as good what you want to do is say it's nothing personal we're not even gonna decide who goes first we'll just do it in alphabetical order and then on day one you say that looks like we got a week of fentanyl overdoses and this many Karuna deaths okay that's a that's a hundred and seventy five so we'll just go down the alphabet until you get a hundred seventy-five kids and you just send them home just send them home you got to be going by tomorrow and then the next day the elites in China say what the heck just happened wait a minute what's our last name my last name starts with F oh let's maybe we should do something about this so if it doesn't hurt the elites it

[22:44]

this so if it doesn't hurt the elites it doesn't count those are the only ones who get a vote so I would say let's say let's just send them home in alphabetical order don't have to do it right away you know just start start the process in alphabetical order and make it just mechanical no no human decision involved we'll just get a statistic go down the alphabetical list send them an email say be going by Tuesday you don't even have to negotiate about it you don't even have to ask China for anything in return there's no negotiating here you're just saying it's just the way we want to run things this is our system don't even don't even argue it all right here's a new rule I'm stealing this from Bill Maher he always has new rules which is a good structure for jokes by the way yeah if you're criticizing the president's timing of decisions for this coronavirus stuff you have to produce a witness who

[23:45]

stuff you have to produce a witness who was in the room and watched the president ignore advice from experts at the time because otherwise what exactly are you criticizing now if the president was surrounded by experts who said you must do X and the president ignored all the experts and said yeah I think I'll do Y well that that would be a legitimate story that that's something I'd want to know right but if all we know is it would have been better to do something earlier or different does that tell you anything because again everything good should have been done earlier there's no exception to that so simply saying it should have been done earlier there's no meaning at all except you know TV idiots will talk about it forever but unless you have a witness that actually watched him listen to experts and decide not to follow their advice you don't really have

[24:47]

their advice you don't really have anything because without that there's no context it wouldn't mean anything hey the leaders of other countries didn't seem to do much better now if you know I know some people could say ah but Scott why were we not ready with all the ventilators and the test machine the tests test kits the answer is nobody was nobody was ready with that I mean South Korea is a smaller place maybe they're a little more efficient maybe they got there quicker but nobody was ready of all the nations of the world nobody was ready and and how many ventilators did we think we needed how many did we think we have we still don't know we don't know how many we had that money we needed do you think that the president United States was ever aware that we had a ventilator shortage was even ever aware of that do you think the president and you could say this for every leader of every other country do you think the President of the United States was aware that we didn't have the

[25:49]

States was aware that we didn't have the right kind of test kits no I doubt it you know that's kind of down in the details so anyway that's enough about that I'm watching the most interesting intellectual let's say difference of opinion and what's interesting about it is that the two people who are on opposite sides of this are so smart normally normally you see a smart person arguing with a dumb person you know of course you always agree with the one you think is the smart one but it's unusual to see somebody who are equally smart you know at the highest level smart and also deeply disagreeing while looking at exactly the same facts and to me that's that's just like so fascinating so here's what's happening so you may be familiar with these names from Twitter or otherwise but Balaji Srinivasan has been tweeting about the

[26:51]

Srinivasan has been tweeting about the dangers of the corona virus you know extensively and in detail you know tons of good sources and great thinking about etcetera and he would be on the other side saying this is you know it's as big a problem as the experts say it is maybe even bigger it's gonna be big it's a big big deal and then it's you know it's special now to Balaji's point you could look at China you know they had more deaths than they say probably you can look at Italy and Iran and you just say oh well already we're seeing that there are major problems and then we also look at what the ER doctors are saying and I don't believe you'll see any ER doctors who say you know I'm working ER and it's basically just the flu have you heard anybody saying that have you heard any doctor who was actually working at you know the frontlines who agrees with the notion you know this is it's sort of just like more flu there's sort of like more like that no not even close every

[27:52]

more like that no not even close every doctor who's working on it says as clearly as possible this is not the flu one of the doctors said that you could even tell the people who have it by their eyes get red in a very very specific way and they have a very specific you know quaff and bronchial situation but anyway so so balaji has on this side that the the deaths of going from 100's a day to a thousand and out of a week or something as as you would expect if it's really bad you've got other countries that are already suffering yet the sooner that things were really bad there that sides with him and then the ER doctors so he's got quite a bit of scientific and anecdotal information it's compatible with his view that this is really a big big problem on the other hand we have equally smart and well-informed Adam Townsend one of the

[28:52]

well-informed Adam Townsend one of the people that I look to to make sure my opinion is makes sense you know and balagia as well so when there are people who will instantly modify my opinion just because they're smarter and I just changed my opinion sometimes when smart people say something else but Adam says and I think it would it would be really easy for me to mischaracterize the nuance of his argument so I apologize in advance to Adam if I'm doing that I'll try my best to capture right and I think the feeling is that may be closing the economy was an overreaction based on what we're seeing so some of the sub arguments are that were probably over accounting the number of deaths in New York so does that sound right there were probably over accounting the number of people dying from coronavirus now the argument here is that especially for

[29:53]

argument here is that especially for older patients were the majority the ones who are having the bad problems older patients almost always have an underlying health condition almost always you know if you're seventy plus you've got something wrong with you you know little hypertension got some COPD maybe you've got a heart murmur or maybe you got something so but every time one of those people who has some other condition also has coronavirus you know are they being are they being recorded correctly so in other words is it the corona virus that really killed them or did they have things that were gonna kill them anyway and so the corona virus was you know just coincidentally in their body to I don't know how you'd get to the bottom of that but I'm just pointing out that that that's an argument likewise the New York data shows that almost

[30:54]

the New York data shows that almost nobody is dying unless they had an underlying condition which would suggest well maybe it's not that bad for regular people except that most of us have some kind of underlying condition you know if you can't overweight and you know asthma and everything else a lot of us have an underlying condition including me and then also adam has correctly pointed out that i believe the the models for how many people were already supposed to be dead we're not even close so in other words apparently were way less investin way way under than the models at one time predicted now let's pull apart these two arguments because they're they're not exactly opposites I would say the atom is more skeptical of the data which is different from saying the data is wrong

[31:54]

different from saying the data is wrong or you know I think he's pointing out that you can't really rely on these numbers and therefore you don't quite know what you're dealing with and you don't necessarily know that it's so bad you should close the entire economy here's what's interesting about this besides the fact that they're both smart and they're looking at the same information we are so close to knowing who's right and neither of them are backing down if we're so close because in two weeks you're gonna know with a fair degree of certainty right was this as bad as the experts said or did we just panic and it was more of a hysteria situation it was the way we were coding the deaths one of those two positions is going to be right and we're going to know in two weeks and the fact that they're both they're both pretty firm and they're opposite opinions just fascinates me it's the two movies on one screen all right what will be the what

[32:57]

screen all right what will be the what will be the impact on climate change politics after all this is done because I've never seen experts take a beating like this of you can you think of any time in your life that the experts were so thoroughly discredited I'm not not all the experts and not on all the facts but you know the whole don't where you don't need a you don't need a face mask thing that felt like some kind of a final straw because it was just such a blatant lie and you know maybe they had good intentions but it was such a blatant lie that I think experts are forever damaged at least you know for those of us who live through this I've got a feeling that climate change or school look different now I tweeted a page from my book loser thing in which I was talking about so before the pandemic happened I was saying one

[33:57]

the pandemic happened I was saying one argument against spending all your money on a climate change is it's not the only big threat and I listed pandemics and asteroids and cybers you know cyber cyber attacks and sort of those sort of things as the other the other risks now look what this pandemic did to our economies they're just imagined if this had happened and say two years from now and you had a president Bernie Sanders just hypothetically if if socialism had been in the process of you know revamping our economy you know transitioning to it let's say that the AOC has got their way and one what kind of shape would we be in now if we'd spent that much money on green New Deal could we still do as much as we are even though we're basically broke already could we do as much as we're doing against the pandemic so I don't know the answer the question

[34:57]

so I don't know the answer the question but everybody everybody who thought they were smart
Nassim Taleb would say you have to spend as much as it takes to fix climate change because it's it's something that could be you know Genki katastrophe and i would say that only makes sense if you only have one problem you know one problem that could end you then of course yeah you should overspend to drive that down to zero even if you thought it was a 1% chance it would take out the planet you still want to drive that to zero but if you have multiple risks you just can't take the same strategy because you don't have infinite money to do everything so as somebody on Twitter said and some of you have said I think I think the way out looks like this once we have enough test kits and we're also giving the we have

[35:58]

kits and we're also giving the we have enough of the hydroxychloroquine and we're giving it to people early those two things plus wearing masks plus you know keeping grandma socially isolated for a while probably those things might be enough to get us back to work because if it's true that the people who are working age let's say people under 65 if people under 65 get the hydroxychloroquine early and almost never need a ventilator then all of your health care problems are largely solved because it's really the the ventilator stage where all the problems come and that the rest of us could test like crazy keep grandma locked up wear your face masks for a few months until you feel like you're over it and maybe you can you can make it to the point where we can get the you know the blood antibodies in us and some people have a natural immunity and then you get to the vaccines so we do have a way out but the

[37:01]

vaccines so we do have a way out but the way out depends on knowing when we'll have enough test kits when we'll have enough masks and when we'll have enough hydroxychloroquine and the FDA is still happy with it which i think is a given so we're kind of close to at least knowing what we need but as I mentioned as I mentioned our government the task force is not telling us how long any of those things will when will we have enough tests when will we have enough drugs and maths and stuff total there's no excuse for it anymore there's just no excuse for them not giving us that kind of visibility on this just no excuse I could not be more angry about that is China using the second bodies using them for what mean is China using the blood serum the thing I believe that they did try it I think other others are trying it too

[38:06]

Big Pharma doesn't want a twenty dollar cuher it might be part of the problem might be why hasn't the Trump administration hired you as a consultant well why would they hire me they get her for free about pneumonia vaccines I was wondering about that you know that's a good that's a good question does the pneumonia vaccine protect you from coronavirus and Scaroni virus the risk is that it gives you pneumonia that's a good question and why why if why is nobody asked that question in public I have to see it on a comment here I'd love to see the Internet
China send spreaders you think yeah you know I I don't know about the I don't believe that China did this intentionally but there's a difference

[39:06]

intentionally but there's a difference of opinion about whether you could tell if a if a virus was engineered so I've heard smart people say oh you could certainly tell if it was engineered to which I say well if the only thing you engineered was combining parts from existing viruses you really think you could tell because it wouldn't it look like a virus like every other virus they all have the same kind of parts but they're in a different order basically I feel like you can engineer a virus that nobody would know is engineered it Lowe's you used parts from existing virus to give you what you wanted but I don't think it happened I think is more likely I do think it's more likely it came from some kind of a lab but probably accidental all right was Venezuela a drug move a message to China I believe so yeah let's talk about that so I talked about a little last night anything big this happening in the world

[40:08]

anything big this happening in the world at the moment you almost have to always ask yourself and what's that got to do with China because it feels like you know that's that's the backdrop to everything so when the president announced he was going to be more naval entered interdicting mostly between you know South America and Central America so it wasn't really the Mexican cartels that we're going after well I don't know I'm not sure which cartels were involved but they were going after the routes between South America and Central America that would go over water mostly and I don't know what that means did so here's my question are we so good at recognizing a smuggling boat that we can identify them and stop them I mean it's a big ocean can we do that can we tell every boat and what they're up to and I just don't know if you can interdict anything so that's my first

[41:09]

interdict anything so that's my first question is does it really even make any difference if we send our entire Navy there or we can even know who to stop and search I know but maybe we do or at least it makes some difference but here's what I think I think it has more to do with moving our naval assets into the area if you know what I mean because Maduro is still there and we've now put a price on his head which allows us I think he's been determined to be some kind of a criminal which allows us basically to kill him so we just put a bounty on his head essentially told the world that from our perspective it's okay to kill him and then we just moved all of our military assets into his backyard but it's for allegedly a different reasons maybe maybe the only reason we're moving our military assets there is to take care of this little smuggling problem because apparently that Venezuela is using the drug money to replace money

[42:10]

using the drug money to replace money they're losing on oil and other stuff so it could be they're just starving the Medora regime and that's exactly what the president says yeah we're we're just going to stop the drug trade so that Maduro doesn't get this illegal drug money could be just that or it could be an excuse to move our assets into the area without people thinking it's an invasion just in case we need to do a little invading now I don't know that we would put boots on the ground I don't know I'm not a military strategist but if it all comes down to basically killing one guy and you've just you just socialized it with the world because when the president put a price on his head that was sort of saying to the world hey you know just giving you a warning is anybody gonna have anybody will anybody have a problem cuz you know we're gonna kill this guy anybody because this would be the time to complain I don't know if anybody

[43:10]

to complain I don't know if anybody complained I didn't hear any but you could imagine that China wasn't too happy because China is probably working with Maduro and they don't know if he's replaced by somebody else let's say somebody elected democratically would they work with China because China's wonder has that had been one of their biggest trading partners with Venezuela I don't know what that looks like at the moment because Venezuela's falling apart but I would think that the president's larger strategic objective is to get China and Venezuela to get China ahead of our hemisphere I think maybe that matters more than anything else in the long run wouldn't you think you don't want China to have that much influence over anything in South America so this could be you know this big move to maybe stop some drugs but more likely blocked China so that's what I think that's why I think

[44:14]

it's a cartel okay oil I don't know if anybody wants oil anymore oil is so cheap maybe nobody wants anymore one theory is that drugs are how the flu got here or the virus yeah maybe maybe but it seems more likely people so one of the things we're learning is that the amount of viral load you get matters so that when people are singing in the same room the odds of them all getting it are pretty high so don't do any singing and wear your face mask as in through mason is an antibiotic that is correct so the azithromycin is useful if you actually haven't if you have the corona virus but if you don't have it you don't want an antibiotic and you get shine out of africa too well I've been feeling

[45:18]

of africa too well I've been feeling that Africa is just going to blow up in their faces you know so maybe China can have Africa why does CBS News use footage from an Italian hospital when describing conditions in New York well I don't think that you can bring cameras in to an American emergency room because of privacy so I'm sure it's just some producer said we need a picture of an operating room and they had one that's probably all it was oil is up 35% news of the day well let's see what this stock market looks like stock market looks well smartly up smartly up at least in a lot of categories more up than down not bad alright so that's good news you know if you have to make a bet on the stock market price

[46:21]

market price let me give you a rule that will work 75% of the time there whatever the whatever the market did yesterday it'll do the other thing the next day so today looks like it's gonna be a big up day if it ends a day up you know three to five percent which would it be a big day the odds of tomorrow also being up much smaller so there's like that I'd say there's a 75% chance in our current environment that the next day will be whatever is the opposite of today so if it were bad it's gonna be good if it's good it's going to be bad now but but it's not going to happen every time it's at least 75% of the time and that's what allows you to creep up over time that your your ops don't number your downs over time however do not make any bets based on cartoonist speculating about magical things so don't take any investment advice for me

[47:29]

how is chloroquine supposed to work well it keeps your body from going into that trying too hard to kill the virus mode it's your body that actually kills you not the virus it's your body trying to fight the virus that that makes your lungs stop working do you think Biden is sound of mine no not even close I think that I don't think there are any Democrats at this point at least you know the professionals I don't think that they think that Biden is capable
yeah the virus could come back year after year but we would have some immunity by then so it wouldn't be as bad no price increase it's the Saudis lower production all right I don't know what the situation that there is
it's 35% down dear so somebody's saying that oil is down or is it up I don't it'll be it would be whatever is the

[48:30]

it'll be it would be whatever is the difference tomorrow so tomorrow it'll be whatever is different than that this Cuomo we're going to replace Biden he says no and I don't know how he would run for a president I think he's pretty busy yes I'm sticking with my 5,000 net keyword net so when all of you come back later to tell me I'm wrong you'll forget the net part so let me say in advance you stupid idiot you forgot the net park so you're not criticizing me you're criticizing your own hallucination I like to I like to tell you what I'm going to say the weeks of advance so the 5,000 net makes this assumption because we're shut down there are a whole bunch of lives that are not being lost traffic accidents etc and you have to net that out because the decision to close the economy is the decision about how to treat the virus so it's all part of the same decision you

[49:30]

it's all part of the same decision you can't say this many people died in the hospital and then ignore the fact that twice as many people are alive who would have been dead under other conditions so at the moment we're still negative my understanding is that the number of people have been saved by not having a normal economy it's still quite a bit bigger than the total number who are dead now I do expect that to reverse so it's not going to stay that way you know and and the economy itself will cause some problems with poverty too and that's hard too hard to net that out of there why am i way from Pristina somebody says well here's the situation so she has her own house and she took in a family member you know it's emergency time so people are doing what they have to do and one of her family members works on hospital so in Cristina's house you know

[50:31]

hospital so in Cristina's house you know it's only young people and and one of them has a critical job at hospital so I can't be in a house where there's somebody going to a hospital and coming home so I'm in I'm in my big old house alone with no human contact what about the three candidates catching enviros well it's possible you know I I said that a question that should be asked of the task force is are they already taking hydroxychloroquine and I'm really surprised that didn't get asked yesterday because it's such such an obvious question isn't it isn't it like just a super obvious question mr. president mr. vice president are you taking hydroxychloroquine for preventive you know reasons because what do you be surprised if they're not I would be a

[51:33]

surprised if they're not I would be a little worried if they're not right because the task force people just don't have the same flexibility that we do there I mean even when they're standing on the stage they're closer than six feet away from each other so I feel like that's just a given they should be on it and they should tell us I think there were owed that I think we rode that information yeah somebody said what about obesity so there's some indication at least in Italy that something like or maybe other countries do something like 80 to 90 percent of the people dying are are obese or at least they're overweight quite a bit so does that then tell me that I don't have as much of a risk if I'm a normal you know average weight I don't know feels like it but I also have a little asthma now having a little asthma which is well controlled does that put me at

[52:35]

is well controlled does that put me at the same risk as somebody who has COPD because they they lump them together you know if you have a lung disease it's like a big category but if you have COPD and you're 80 you're pretty close to death anyway so I can see how the virus would finish you off but if you're in good shape normal weight everything's fine but you got a little bit of asthma that's well controlled am I am I in the death group I'm gonna act like I am because I don't want to take the chance but I kind of doubt that my that my risk is just like an 80 year old with COPD anyway see help name the fortune 500 ETF well there ETFs and there are spiders there's a technical difference but they act the same so the one I use is spy s py so if

[53:36]

same so the one I use is spy s py so if you look for that in your online brokerage s py it will pop up and it's a basket of the top 500 stocks in the United States I'm not recommending it I only recommend diversification that that basket of stocks does give you diversification but I don't recommend it you know find your own way to make it work but diversifying is good why I tell you the Chris Cuomo is just getting more interesting all the time unfortunately not
not not for happy reasons but I don't know if you saw he was talking about the his fevers and hallucinations and I don't know how many of you are doing this but I spend part of every day going through my memory of how sick I was in January and trying to convince myself that I

[54:38]

and trying to convince myself that I already had it and that you know I'm not bad because I my January was the sickest I've been as an adult maybe I mean you you witnessed some of it I thought I just had I thought I had nasal problems and fever and you know night sweats and everything and I thought it was the meds because I was on meds for some sinus stuff and maybe it wasn't because it because I felt well sicker than I've ever felt in my life but I thought it was just a bad reaction to some meds but maybe I had it never knew all right asthma is part of the Copt Venn diagram I know but I just don't know this COPD and asthma are gonna respond the same to this virus might who knows anyway that's all for now and I will talk to you later tonight you know what time 10:00 10:00

[55:39]

tonight you know what time 10:00 10:00 p.m. Eastern 7:00 p.m. Pacific and I'll talk to you then