Episode 884 Scott Adams: Taking Questions and Solving Pandemics Like it’s Nothing

Date: 2020-04-01 | Duration: 56:53

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: Experts slowly begin to learn what non-experts knew…masks work Experts slowly accept that TrumpPills work Understanding complex projection models Viewer questions

If you would like my channel to have a wider audience and higher production quality, please donate via my startup (Whenhub.com) at this link: https://interface.my/ScottAdamsSays

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## Transcript

[0:09]

bum-bum-bum hey everybody come on in here it's time for swaddling in a warm blanket with Scott he came to the right place if that's why you wanted to do it's all okay that happened here I've been taking questions on Twitter meaning I tweeted to tell people to ask me questions and I will be answering these questions but first let me give you an idea what's what's new and exciting number one people are starting to wise up to the fad to the fact that masks might be a good idea after all who saw that coming all of us so it's sort of a crazy bizarre thing watching watching our experts slowly start to agree with the public it's supposed to work the other way around right aren't the experts supposed to have a position and then the ignorant public eventually

[1:12]

and then the ignorant public eventually learns what the experts teach them well that would be great except we just did it the opposite way where all the all the non experts when they heard that masks don't help you but they do help professionals but they don't help you you know half of the world who's not an expert said well I'm no expert I'm no expert but I'm pretty sure masks help a little and of course the non experts all right but that doesn't mean you should always listen to non experts just because in this obvious example they are right for example one of the most promising treatments apparently is a Hydrox chloroquine and if you would listen to the experts they would have told you don't get so excited about this but if you'd listened to the non experts

[2:12]

but if you'd listened to the non experts let's say Trump himself or or me or many people in Twitter they they had been saying hydroxychloroquine is great so we might find out again whether or not the experts were right downplaying a little bit or other people who don't know anything about anything we're right but that would just be two things I mean you can't make some kind of a big general statement just because it might be that ignorant people were right about two things and experts were wrong about but that's just two things let's talk about those projections because if there's one thing you can count on its that experts are good at projections they're making models if you've been watching me for a while you know I can't stop talking about how accurate complicated projection models are I mean is there

[3:13]

projection models are I mean is there anything they can do yes people we don't know do things we don't understand and then they produce graphs these graphs are made by experts and we should trust them but when we saw the graphs there was one Wow just a small quibble that I have but again I'm no expert I'm no expert I it's not like I'm some epidemiologist because I'm not but when I listen to the experts talk about their own graphs one of the little tidbits the dr. Burks threw in there was that when they were calculating what the curve could be without any abatement you know that the Steep would wear you know two million people might die and then they compared it to the the lower the lower curve or if you do everything right you know you really work hard and do everything right you might be able to get it down to a

[4:14]

you might be able to get it down to a hundred two hundred thousand people dead and then the good doctor threw in this little tidbit that at first I thought I heard it wrong and she said but of course these numbers read New York in the average so New York which is completely different than anything that's happening anywhere in the country you know there are few other hotspots they have their problems but New York is what half of all the problem and New York is a especially steep curve what kind of an average do you get when you take a whole big country that mostly doesn't have too many problems with a few few little warm spots and then you throw in this one data point that's as big as all of the other data points it's just one city and then you take the average then that's the most worthless number you could ever have and I don't think I'm interpreting this I believe

[5:16]

think I'm interpreting this I believe she said that directly criticizing their own graph she wanted us to know quite reasonably wanted us to know that New York was in the average now if you don't you know if you not let's say conversing with modeling and math and spreadsheets and stuff maybe you didn't even catch that maybe you didn't catch that but what would have been the farm or let's say clear would be one model that's just for New York and then another model that maybe is everything else because everything else is so different from New York and then that everything else I think would look a lot lower than their lowest curve and then New York if we try hard and put you know super resources into it well maybe we can get that down as well
somebody says she seems credible you know I she's very qualified of course I

[6:17]

know I she's very qualified of course I was listening to it today while I was walking instead of watching it and somebody I'd heard somebody say this just a valley girl up talk and I never noticed it before and I think that when you watch her live you don't hear it the same way but if you hear if you just listen to her she has a voice that does not suggest scientific excellence and you know somebody's gonna say how a big sexist has nothing to do with that you know you could put a man into the same situation it'd be exactly the same comment it's just there's a certain style of talking this sounds authoritative male or female has nothing to do with gender and she she has the other kind but I'm sure she's very very capable everybody knows good things better so but her voice her voice maybe could be a little bit a

[7:18]

voice maybe could be a little bit a little bit more professional sounding very small equivalent but anyway that was to whoever said she sounds credible yes she does in terms she sounds credible in terms of expertise of course so here's the thing I'm still going to bet that the number of deaths are lower than their lowest estimate in that if you net out the people who didn't die because we shut everything down which which is gonna be in the tens of thousands probably tens of thousands of people won't die in car accidents won't drowned in pool well I don't know about pools but but a whole a whole range of things they won't be getting killed at so I'm still gonna say 5,000 net gross deaths might be exceed that but net I'll say 5,000 now you should not take my estimate to be likely because what do I know I'm just the guy

[8:20]

because what do I know I'm just the guy who's been right about okay everything so far but that doesn't mean it's gonna continue all right so is it my imagination or are people definitely being nicer President Trump seems to be modeling a little bit of nicer behavior he was he that had extended interactions with Jim Acosta which was not ideal but you could easily imagine that would have been worse so just watching the president calling Jim Acosta Jim you know he just used his first name a few times and and he did allow him to ask his questions he pushed back but it was all way more polite than you're used to likewise when when we found out that unfortunately Chris Chris Cuomo tested positive for the virus I didn't see anybody acting political or like a jerk

[9:21]

anybody acting political or like a jerk I'm sure there I'm sure there were some because it's the Internet but mostly people were just saying you know get well soon and that's exactly what I want to say no time for partisanship all right somebody says only 5,000 were already a 4,000 no listen to me carefully because when you come back and tell me I'm wrong this is the key point we're not at 4,000 net net we're actually negative so at this moment of course this will change but at this moment more people have been saved that have died meaning that people would have died in car accidents if we'd been driving to work etc so we're actually ahead in lives I'm not saying that will last but that's where we are we're actually in negative deaths net 60 hours ago you said 4,000 god I knew this was

[10:23]

ago you said 4,000 god I knew this was going to happen everybody's gonna miss remember what I said and then come back to to tell me I'm wrong isn't it bad enough that I'm probably gonna be wrong by a hundred thousand according to the experts ken can you live with that that in theory I should be wrong but like a hundred thousand at least if you're coming back this just a bother the heck out of me if somebody comes back is that you said and it wasn't what I said I know that's gonna happen why am i cranky I just took a nap I just woke up from a nap all right I got some questions here which I will answer
Jen Tech sir says do you think drunk now needs a behavioral psychologist on his panel to get us through the anxiety and stress well that's my job that's what I'm here for I'm to get you through your stress is it working I I have to admit I'm losing a

[11:29]

working I I have to admit I'm losing a little bit of confidence in the experts but you know I think we're in the right path actually Erica says I just need calm I cannot take the press and the hatred and snark anymore will it ever stop well honestly it looks like there's less than ever compared to our normal and B normally they're trying to impeach the president and today they're just you know wondering if he did the right thing as soon as he could have let me think about it
it it wasn't long ago they were saying he should be kicked out of office and impeached and he was a tool of Russia that's bad what they're criticizing him today for is well you know he maybe eats up a little too much camera time communicating with the public okay that's it you know if you look at the nature of the complaints this week they're very small they're kind of

[12:30]

they're very small they're kind of numerous because they need to fill up you know fill up the page and stuff but they're so small he did the right thing and nobody did the right thing faster than any other country by hypothetically had he known what he didn't know he could have done it sooner those are the kinds of the kinds of complaints that people are making there they're not very deep david angel says what makes the virus models any better than the climate change models well I'll tell you David the further out you go in time and the more variables you have the worse your model as a general rule the virus models are really short term they're actually like weeks compared to the climate bottles that are you know decades in 80 years hundred years and I would think that the virus model has far fewer variables I think right I mean I haven't looked at it in

[13:33]

right I mean I haven't looked at it in that level but you think virus model they're just gonna say I don't know six variables how many could there be whereas the climate seems more like infinite variables so I'm not saying the virus models are correct but I do think you know the the experts and Trump and foul Qi they had the worst time tried to explain to the public this simple concept and it was making me crazy because they kept repeating it over and over and you're probably already sick of it which is that the models don't tell you what's going to happen they tried to explain this a million times now because I've done lots of financial modeling you know I'm awesome at eclis on that page the the model the prediction doesn't tell you what's going to happen it's going to it's going to tell you sort of directionally where things will go is it real bad is it a little bad in you know if you make this kind of change you'll sort of generally go that way they're very very approximate so the models are doing doing their job as

[14:34]

models are doing doing their job as scaring people to you know to comply but I wouldn't look for accuracy even even the short term they are have her useful so who is it who said no prediction somebody said something like there's a famous quote like no predictions are accurate but all predictions are useful all right there's something like that I mean no law Jody says I'm in New Orleans too drove around to different hospitals they all appear dead ghost towns why I don't know I I would think that all the activity is going to be concentrated in a few hospitals so maybe it was a different Hospital I know what ratio of doctors to beds are needed that's good question what would you think with knowing anything you know if we just had the gas how many beds let's let's say

[15:35]

the gas how many beds let's let's say that means patients how many patients can one doctor handle that's a good question isn't it I have no idea because he obviously depends but if let's say you were taking the average of these Cove in 19 patients you know and you averaged an accident number need ventilation and X number don't nobody could one doctor handle let's say you know in any given day during an emergency 50 because remember they're working long hours and they're really hitting it you know they're not dawdling so maybe one doctor could do 50 is that way too high or way too low I have no idea
pancakes or waffles neither my opinion on today's briefing I thought I thought the beginning of the briefing was very strong and you Trump's

[16:37]

briefing was very strong and you Trump's part in particular he did very well I thought it went too long and maybe he took too many questions and that it seemed to look at all the estimates for how many patients the doctor can handle 30 to 110 you know all kinds investments all right so I think the president probably should have kept that a shorter but it was generally good let me tell you what they are still failing at completely so the the members of the press they're so weak compared to the government now I don't know if that's just because of the era of Trump or whatever but they're asking all these questions of the administration and the administration is just not answering them and it goes like this this form of the question how many ventilators do you think we'll need and how many do we have you know including the ones that are

[17:38]

you know including the ones that are coming that's like the whole question right you could ask that same question again forum asks how many do we need how many do we have coming you know I mean you could add a little detail but that's basically I write and for each of the different components the hydroxychloroquine and the reporters keep trying to ask that question in all kinds of forums and even one of them was smart enough to say shouldn't there be somebody whose job it is just to be measuring that stuff so that everybody knows what we have and what we need and report it out which is of course exactly what I've been saying for a while that Mike Pence's answer is that we have that person and he named the person works for FEMA yes you know we have exactly that person you do you do because it doesn't look like you have that person if you have that person when they ask that question you would have an answer and even if the answer was approximate for

[18:41]

even if the answer was approximate for example you might say some people think we'll need as many as 60,000 ventilators others think it might only be 40,000 that's fine that's fine that's telling you something and then you go on to say we've you know we know that we have let's say 20,000 ventilators if you added up all the the people who are trying to make them and promising we don't know if they'll meet their commitments but if you just added what they were promising we should be up to 45,000 within three weeks how hard would it be again you could be way off but it's more than we know now I mean it would at least let's say the numbers were something like that we need 60,000 but it might be only 40,000 we've got 20,000 into warehouses and commitments for another 25,000 wouldn't that do you don't think anybody could have pulled those numbers together and just told us there could be that they're lying to us the way they lied to us about the masks

[19:42]

the way they lied to us about the masks the way they lied to us about the hydroxychloroquine it could be a shortage situation I don't know so maybe they're still just intentionally not telling us but I would say this is just a gigantic glaring flaw that the press is totally letting them get away with and I don't know if the press just doesn't know that it should be reasonably easy to do I don't know it's a big mystery where they're not pushing on that but you know I've been giving it a little time because pence did say that they are querying the hospitals to get exactly this kind of information it could be it just takes a few days if it's like everything else in the world you can't do it overnight but it's been a few days and I'd like to see at least I don't know one number like well we got the masks number we're still working on the other I don't have confidence if I'm not seeing those numbers produced pretty quickly well everything Ian says well

[20:45]

quickly well everything Ian says well anything ever be done about the obvious corruption of the World Health Organization well I don't know but I'd certainly be amazed if we continued to fund them wouldn't you I mean I maybe they do some things that are so important that we have to anyway but after this situation where the world's North health organization seems to have been completely a bad actor they weren't even just worthless they were actually a bad actor and may have caused a lot of deaths so I don't know how we would continue to fund them but we'll see what percent are you so this is what percent certainty I guess Mastiff auxins rest that will see some sort of attacked by a foreign country while we deal with the cove in 19 here at home I would say none the odds that a foreign country would attack us under these circumstances or none because first of all who attacks

[21:48]

none because first of all who attacks the United States right you know who would intentionally ever attack the United States nobody what was the last time somebody somebody who had a standing army let's say don't let's not terrorists but somebody you could find like with a real government attack the United States I mean really when was the last time so no that's not gonna happen
best investments for a 1 2 3 . well I don't give investment advice but I will tell you this generic thing which is diversification is good and I personally have my money in you know the bulk of it in fortune 500 fund you know just an unmanaged fund of American companies so that way I don't have to pick winners and losers I'm basically betting on America and I would think that in our current situation as whatever you think will happen to America we're probably

[22:51]

will happen to America we're probably going to get through this better than anybody else I think so if you had to put your money in a country it's still kind of America we're still America even as big as the budget deficit is and everything else it's still better than the alternatives what the hell is up with the CDC good question say Jenny Smith says will you comply as Bill Gates suggests with an electronic certificate identifying antibodies in order to travel I would yeah I would there's lots of things that I would do in an emergency situation that I wouldn't do in an ordinary situation but yeah if I had to basically be tagged as somebody who had recovered so I could travel yeah why not I mean it would just be for my own benefit that I would have this extra power that I could travel Dave says tell us about the pranks you alluded to in

[23:52]

us about the pranks you alluded to in your book can't tell ya I can't tell ya I'll tell you one prank though was it's not one of the ones I alluded to but in my first long-term relationship many years ago I was living with a woman and every every night she would I think she used them to I know take off makeup or something these little cotton balls so she'd have a a bag that she would buy with a big ol bunch of cotton balls now the thing about cotton balls is that when you take one end of the bag it still looks like the bag is full you can actually take quite a few balls out before you could convince yourself that any have even left the bag I don't know they're expanding or whatever it is so one day Pam was her name she mentioned so yeah oh geez it seems like you know this it's like an infinite bag of cotton balls every time I take one now it seems like you can't even tell the difference and

[24:54]

you can't even tell the difference and from that day on I went to the store and I bought my own bag of cotton balls and every day I was very dedicated every day I was walking and I would take I think she would use two a day or something it would take two cotton balls and in my bag and put it in her bag so for months and months and months she's taking two bags at two cotton balls out of her bag and it never goes down I think I think I read this praying for like a year I got like a full year and she never knew that her cotton balls were always replenished anyway I'm very dedicated to my pranks
how to fight through frustration with learning new stuff I've been stuck in the same project for two days well I I don't know I'm not maybe not the best one to ask because I very much dislike that period where you're confused and

[25:55]

that period where you're confused and you can't figure out how to do something I'll tell you the tricks I use I mean one trick is to make sure you get get a lot of sleep there are simply things you can solve after you a good night's sleep that you just can't when you're tired so that's one thing another thing is ask some other people what they do you know check the YouTube videos and then just keep keep chipping away at it yeah there are a lot of things that it seems like it's impossible to learn until you do so just keep chipping away film Ladd says if you were governor of New York
I'm not gonna read the rest of this you know David David says should Twitter personalities who are you talking about David should Twitter personalities without mathematics the science or engineering degrees be allowed to criticize probabilistic ependymal and ependymal law epidemiological models

[26:56]

ependymal law epidemiological models they obviously don't understand I think that's directed at me David well let me put it this way when the epidemiologist says we through New York in the numbers I don't really have to be an epidemiologist to know that they should have been separated all right so the answer is apparently yes I should as a Twitter personality I should criticize that for what it's worth I did that kind of work for a living all right um what portion of the people dying are from assisted living facilities that got infected before the shutdown you know the general question is we don't know who's dying and why and I've asked this question which is how many doctors who took the hydroxychloroquine before getting anything how many of them have been hospitalized and ventilated I'll bet

[27:56]

hospitalized and ventilated I'll bet it's zero that's the dog that doesn't bark in there that I believe the doctors taking that drug to protect themselves may or may not be getting the the virus because I think you could still get it but that it would be trivial if you did so I'm predicting that nobody who's been taking it for a while and then then got exposed will be ventilated we'll see what talents tack do you recommend learning to prepare for a post corona world well I wouldn't be a restaurant server so restaurants are going to be tough for a while
I would say podcasting would be good and anything that you can do at home might make a difference so I think the real answer that was you should add to your talent stack whatever makes sense with

[28:57]

talent stack whatever makes sense with what you're good at and you're what you already have so you should build it based on your specific situation
okay then the number the number Canadia the numbers we see for confirmed cases be taken seriously I don't know what seriously means but you've got to take all of the numbers you're saying every estimate every ratio every raw number you just really have to be skeptical of it all and I don't see that changing there's been a steady drumbeat of outrage of the rest of the minister in Florida I don't know that story was that somebody who refused to do social distancing was that the the guy who was driving round and driving people to his church or something I don't remember the story all right do you think this pandemic spirits will sway any was view on the role of the government in health care yes I do I do I think that the odds of some kind of major healthcare

[30:00]

of some kind of major healthcare restructuring that somehow is informed by this or influenced by it is very high because this is such a big health care event that it should it should start you know influencing all of the ways we think about health care in general now predicting exactly how that comes out what would be the hard part but what it influenced it probably asks not guaranteed but probably yes does the kovat virus attack testicles as Alex Jones suggests well when it comes to testicle related science I do go to Alex Jones for my my testicle news and I believe that in this case Alex Jones is compatible with the science now again everything you read about anything in this situation is such his suspect but I can tell you I did read an article that looked credible that said some number of people had

[31:03]

that said some number of people had testicle damage from it apparently it's been harder than women in general and then it could affect your testosterone production which does make you it does make you think that would be like the perfect weapon imagine a virus that just made the other side not as aggressive what about that that'd be quite a weapon do you think Trump was pacing the American public at the outset Nemec it looked to me like he knew a lot of people would reject the ideas in other words the idea of closing everything down and I think in socially isolated so he paced us meaning he he acted the way we acted until he needed to tell us to act differently and then we followed him I don't think he did that intentionally but that's what happened I do thank you I do think that the president's credibility went up because we saw the

[32:03]

credibility went up because we saw the journey yeah we the journey was public you know in public he was like well let's get back to work you know let's push it maybe go back a little earlier than the experts say but let's do that and then we watched the we heard the story of the experts coming into the Oval Office showing him the numbers and then he changed his mind and so because we saw the whole journey it makes you actually feel confident it's like oh that's kind of maybe what I would have done in that situation so I think he handled at least the decision-making and yeah I think you could make this distinction I would say the decision-making is very good Trump's decision-making but you know there's always something to quibble about the communications and little stuff well the next two weeks be as bad as Trump suggests well again doesn't it really depend if this hydroxychloroquine

[33:04]

really depend if this hydroxychloroquine works because if they if they start giving to people I guess three days ago and I don't know what percentage of people are getting it and then what at what phase of their symptoms but if we started going a little bit more aggressively on that the next two weeks could be worse than we're seeing but maybe not a catastrophe maybe not so there's I would say there's a solid 50% chance that there's well there's no chance that the next two weeks will be good you can rule that out so there's no chance that you know just nobody dies but the odds of it being a you know the nightmare scenario I think no more than 50/50 and you know I told you I'm betting on the low side
why did you block Larry des liberal he loves you in this good fun in the worst

[34:04]

loves you in this good fun in the worst of times larry was DMing me multiple times per day his tweets you know so that I would see them and retweet them and I don't mind retweeting stuff but I don't like people sending me multiple teams a day asking me to retweet stuff so it was only because I'm it was causing me work so it was nothing personal he's very funny all right do you see home values following due to job loss yes of course yeah home values will fall that's there's no doubt about that
how should have virus prediction modeling been presented well I think I talked about that should we send billions to Israel every year when we have thousands of homeless here you know the whole Israel question that's not a it's not a fair question you know the the money you spend on one thing isn't

[35:05]

the money you spend on one thing isn't the money that you would have spent on another thing it just sort of doesn't work that way so the first part is the question is not fair you should say should we should we spend any money on Israel yes or no just by itself you don't say and we could have used that money too keep somebody live that it doesn't work that way because you could have borrowed money to keep that other person alive if that was a priority but to ask you a question my understanding is we give them foreign aid which we force them to use to buy our military stuff so really it's like we're giving it to our own military-industrial complex it only seems like we're giving it to Israel pros Emma says do you love trans women yes I do I love I love all people Dave said should we boycott 18t for supporting their fake news companies CNN I'm not the boy cat guy I just you know

[36:07]

I'm not the boy cat guy I just you know I get why people get mad they want to buy a boycott but I just don't think that's there just yeah it's not not the way I'd go for anything flower child 99 says what do you think of dr. Shiva's taken the virus he thinks ouchies in bed with big pharma so to speak pushing vaccines over boosting our national immune health and testing of vitamin A which should be done regularly but isn't well I don't know how I could weigh in on a medical question but I will say that if if it's a question of things which have passed scientific muster we should look at them and if it's something that hasn't then doctor foul she's on strong ground and I don't know if I don't know that's vitamin A been looked at so I can't ask I can't give you a good answer on it talk about the infrastructure bill you think it will really happen you know

[37:11]

you think it will really happen you know if we were a rational species and a rational time it would happen because I don't think there's anybody on the left or the right who doesn't recognize that it's just sort of a good idea if ever you were gonna do an infrastructure bill do it now couldn't couldn't be a better time because of the economic stimulus and the fact that we need it and the fact that the moment people are willing to work together basically every single condition you would want we have so if you can't get it done now you know when can you get it done so but I I am skeptical that you know we could create a lot of jobs that way but it might feel people feel like things are going to the right direction yeah that whole shovel shovel-ready thing that never seems real to me simulation question do other people exist in your simulation or are they just a simulated person to entertain you well of course there's no way to know

[38:12]

well of course there's no way to know the answer but let me speculate if we are a simulation we either just live independently as you know you you're a simulation and I'm a software simulation too but we could also be avatars that some other creatures are using to experience our game-like world now if it's that one where there are avatars who are inhabiting us it could be this some of us have an avatar or some of us have a creature inhabiting us and some of us don't so that's one possibility the other possibility is that only one of us is real even in the simulation there's only one sort of main character and then everything else is scenery so that's possible or that some of us are real and others are backgrounds and NPCs as they say so I think any of those are possible at least at least you can't

[39:13]

possible at least at least you can't prove they're not true mike says can you give us an update on interface by one hub and well here's the thing it's sort of a perfect tool to be using in this situation one my startup has an app called interface where any expert can sign up to take a phone call and charge for it or not charge for it so it's the not charge for it if you want to part that's important you so it's a video call with somebody that you can easily find the app who has expertise and is available for a certain thing now it's exactly what you need for tella telehealth experts of all kinds in this situation but I've just not felt commercial these last several weeks the thought of selling something even if it's something that people want and just

[40:15]

it's something that people want and just my I don't know I don't have the fire for anything that's just commercial at the moment my my focus is more on the on the emergency but that said it is also a perfect tool so if there are any individual doctors they can just sign up and just you know if they could tweet it out and say I'm on this app and they could charge zero if they want or if they're if they're already socially isolating and you know maybe they tested positive themselves they could just keep being a doctor from whom and you wouldn't need any approvals or anything just sign up for the app is called interface by win hub all right um why haven't you talked about career millionaire politicians who have sold this out to China I guess the implication being that they're on the payroll or something you know I don't know too much about that situation except that it's obvious that China is buying influence everywhere so

[41:18]

China is buying influence everywhere so I don't know what you do about that because whoever has the most money is going to be buying influence and don't you think the United States buys a lot of influence maybe not as aggressively as China let's see the bureau says I bought a special blanket for a swaddle time but wife is making me repaint the whole house and I'm dead tired at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time already questioned should I listen to my my body my wife or you well you should listen to me tell your wife be raised missus be raised this is this is message for you you should let your husband swaddle and his new newly purchased swaddle blanket because this is important that house will still need painting later all right

[42:23]

should we answer that will you do a live street with me so I can ask you about your childhood well will you ask me about my childhood and why would that matter happy to answer those questions but I don't know I don't know why you'd care where is hunter there's a good question - where's Joe Biden where is Joe Biden Oh calming lessons would you like some lessons on relaxing well I've told you how to relax and I took my long walk today and feeling good do you predict a spike in divorces well it's going to work both ways because some number of people probably we're going to get divorced and this changed the mind and some will think well it's the last straw it's probably a little both good and a doubt - nothing can now find interface by it's

[43:23]

- nothing can now find interface by it's it's when hub whe n HUP so it's interface by when hub it's in all the app stores what do you think of the Canadian diagnosis kits I don't know that story well will happen to the travel industry it will be dead for a while but I think that you know people like to travel I don't think that's going to change as soon as they get money again I think I think it'll come back it'll just it's going to be a while will the NFL play I'll bet not if I had to predict I'd say no NFL season that's my guess
do you think the new normal looks like I think May first will just be extending whatever we were doing before that I don't think Bay first will be a real change your life day will we fight for

[44:25]

change your life day will we fight for gasoline like Mad Max well the good news is I think we got plenty of gasoline it could be super cheap the bad news is that the you know the oil industry might be going into business as simulations very useful to self self hypnotized via narrative fallacy I don't really know what that means
when is the John McAfee interview you know I I was gonna interview John McAfee and he agreed which would be an amazing interview but he needs to use secure communications so he can't just call in here and he can't call in on FaceTime him he's got to use Skype and I didn't know how they used I didn't know how to do a split screen with Skype and I just couldn't get the technology to work
podcasts do you follow you know I don't listen to a lot of podcasts I end up listening to whatever people recommend

[45:25]

listening to whatever people recommend people said be podcast all the time to say yeah I gotta listen to this one so sometimes I do why aren't we hearing of Trump properties going to possible bankruptcy it's a good question it's a private company and who knows what they are doing or need to do now a lot of their business is licensing so they don't own the building they've just license their name for it so there's still a problem which is they won't get paid for the licenses if the if the company and the license it goes on to business but it's not like they have a loan so in those cases it's just a stream of income that stops versus having something they owe a lot of money on so but they have some of those too I'm sure
do I like Victor David Davis Hanson yeah he's always a good interview and a good great writer do I play chess I play

[46:27]

great writer do I play chess I play chess with Christina before any of this business started for the first time I hadn't played chess in a million years and it I'm not sure I have the patience for it get Gordon Chang yeah I should what is the secret to the universe well what if the secrets of the universe is that you can program it and that if you learn that then you get everything you want because sometimes it feels like that that that some people have learned how to program the simulation and there are people I know I won't name any examples but there are people I know who can so consistently make things happen that you don't think they should be able to do that that you just wonder about the nature of reality let me tell you a story about the first time I realized how influential I was or persuasive so

[47:29]

how influential I was or persuasive so this is a real story so back in college there was a organization in college called the coffee house and the coffee house was a group that was run by students so the students volunteered to run it and there was a bar on campus so we'd have live music and served I think only beer at the time and some snacks and I volunteered to work there to get some experience managing a thing and that was the Minister of Finance so I was an economic major so I redid the you know the the accounting system and you know became one of these several managers working in this bar environment and it was the coolest job because it was a bar and you know you're 18 and you're in those days you could drink it at 18 in New York so here is the situation we would hire bartenders and then we as a group the the so-called

[48:30]

and then we as a group the the so-called managers would have to fire them if they didn't perform and one of the people that we hired was a close friend of mine so I had talked the managers into hiring a friend and he was the worst employee he would show up an hour late he would he'd be stoned he'd you know do things wrong just the worst employee so so the the other managers put up with him for several weeks and they decided that they were gonna have a meeting and we're gonna fire him so I'm in the meeting in which the managers are talking about firing my friend who I had recommended for the job of being a bartender I decided that I was going to see if I could get them to wait for it instead of firing him that they would agree to make him their boss to make him actually the

[49:31]

him their boss to make him actually the head of the managers I forget what the title was though but that was open and I didn't want to be the head I wanted to be the one who sort of controlled the head so to speak I didn't want I didn't want that name the title by the one I wanted to have the influence and so I actually said you know what you're saying about him being fired it's all true he really was late and he's really not much of a bartender at all and I don't think he has any of the natural talents that would make a good bartender but you know what he does have and I argued with them they he had a unique talent stack and in use those terms back then but he had a unique set of skills that would make him the perfect head of the organization that was talking about firing him right then so we were literally talking about firing him as a bartender and within 45 minutes I had convinced everybody in the room that we should not fire him and instead promote

[50:32]

should not fire him and instead promote him to be our own boss and and yeah they said well you know you're still gonna have to I don't know go through a vote or something and I sort of argued in my case and the next thing you know you as fired as a bartender and promoted to all of our bosses that actually happened you know and I tell that story I think has anybody ever been almost fired but instead got promoted to be the boss of the person who was almost gonna fire him I don't think that's ever happened in the history of in the history of the business so you should not be surprised that when I later studied hypnosis and the tools of persuasion that I had a reason to think maybe I had some national talent in that area so it's it's just getting better was it any good at a new job yeah actually I guess that's the punch line the punch line he

[51:34]

that's the punch line the punch line he was actually pretty good as a chairman I think was a chairman it was the title he was actually pretty good we with my help we completely turned the place around and lost money the business had lost money every year every year I had been on campus for you know decades and you know I turned it all around and changed the pricing and fired some vendors and basically it was just a turnaround there and it was making money for the first time so so that happened anyway here's another true story also from college the same friend that I was telling this story about and another one the three of us we would sit in our dorm room and enjoy the things that college students enjoy when they're sitting in dorm rooms okay know what I mean and we would have wild ideas and plans for the future and I came up with this plan I said why

[52:35]

I came up with this plan I said why don't the three of us be in charge of the whole dormitory yes bombs were were involved that is true and I said we should be in charge of the dormitory instead of having these professional managers so there was like a professional adult who lived there and was sort of in charge and there were these Resident Assistants students who were sort of like that his little army of things they said you know we should just take over we should like be in charge of the dorm the three of us and we hatched this scheme to try to sell to the administration the plan where they would fire the adult and they would pay us actually give us money the three of us to be in charge of the dormitory instead now how high do you have to be to come up with that idea well a year later as I was in my private private room which was available only to student managers the name of the title which we gave it and then we took it and

[53:36]

which we gave it and then we took it and we sold it to the administration and sold it to these students who are coming into the dormitory the next year and we completely redid the the the form of management in the dormitory and I squared it I swear to God I got a private room and I got paid and I also you know we had the students doing the jobs of security and cleaning the longer room and and other stuff and and I took some of those jobs too because yeah anybody could volunteer for him so there were days when I would be working working security at night letting people in and out of the building getting paid for that I'd be doing my homework in between and then when there was nobody there and I was tired of homework I walked across the hall and cleaned the laundry room which I also paid for so I got paid to be a student manager paid to work security and paid to clean the laundry room and I did them all at the same time so I was working three jobs and doing my homework while I was just

[54:38]

and doing my homework while I was just sort of staying up late so the the three of us we took over years later there were that dormitory still had that that same structure I think they ended up losing it but I was kind of persuasive back in college and those are just the stories I can tell you it was pretty it was it was pretty fun times all right so that's enough of my college stories the only person who who had a better scam in college was one of the other students who worked security for the whole campus so it was a student who a part-time job working security and mostly that meant he had a big walkie-talkie and he would just go around and let people in if it was after the hurricane at the time that the buildings were locked so he would get a call go to a dormitory and let somebody in and he'd walk over and do it but he didn't like doing that so instead he

[55:40]

didn't like doing that so instead he would come to our dormitory and and just party so instead of working and letting people in he would just put his walkie-talkie down and get really high and have a good time with us and then a call would come in it's like Rare you got that got something needs to be let in if they're XY dormitory and you'd be like okay I'm on my way and then you just keep partying there you get another call it's like oh they're still waiting yeah are you on your way it's like oh yeah I'm almost there I'm on my way and they just put it down and you keep partying and then you get a third call it's like I cancel that somebody was leaving the building and let him and he's like oh I was almost there it puts a town and he would just stay there partying with us and everybody was trying to get in a building if they waited long enough somebody was leaving and they would just just go in when somebody left so he would just get paid for lying in his lying to his walkie-talkie it was pretty funny at the time I have to admit all right with that

[56:41]

time I have to admit all right with that in mind that did I beat Christina in chess I did I believe I did yes and I will talk to you
you you had the morning