Episode 879 Scott Adams: Sip and Relax With me While I Tell You What the Future Holds

Date: 2020-03-29 | Duration: 1:12:35

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: Our Surgeon General lied to us about masks helping, multiple times Drug cartels struggling: Shortage of Chinese precursor chemicals US government MIGHT expel Chinese spies working in our media What about all the spies working in social media? Ambassador Richard Grenell targeted for voice reduction

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## Transcript

[0:11]

um hey everybody come on in here it's time for another edition of coffee with Scott Adams aren't you happy that you get to drink a simultaneous sip every day every morning I never miss unless something bad is happening but all you need is a cover of Margaret glass a tanker Challenger stand in the canteen Jagger flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me down for the unparalleled pleasure that dopamine today the thing that makes everything better including the coronavirus it's called the simultaneous hip go every time I use that little Trump phrase I always smile to myself because it's so effective you know when Trump brand something or puts a nickname on it he uses this phrase he goes it's called the simultaneous imp yeah as if he's not the one who named it

[1:14]

yeah as if he's not the one who named it he'll say Jeb Bush he's called low-energy Jeb yeah without reference to the fact that he's the one who started it I always laugh what he does that all right well it looks like in a new poll the voters who are quote enthusiastic enthusiastic not just supporting but enthusiastic supporters of Joe Biden 24% 24% of Joe Biden supporters are enthusiastic about it to which I said to myself really really if I were to dig into these numbers a little bit maybe get the name of one of these enthusiastic voters drove over to that enthusiastic voters house and said you recently answered a poll question and you're in the 24 percent of people

[2:16]

and you're in the 24 percent of people who say you're enthusiastic you're the thews II ask about Joe Biden did you really say that now do you think that if you were in person with one of the people who said that they were enthusiastic about supporting Joe Biden do you believe that you would detect said enthusiasm now I do believe the polling was accurate in the sense that you know a question was asked that answer was given it was recorded correctly and tabulated so I'm sure the polling goes yeah I think it was rasp it was it I don't forget who it was but whoever it was I'm sure they did the polling correctly but do you really think you would find that person really like is it a coincidence that I have never met anybody who supports him who's excited about it ever have you ever seen one of his biggest supporters Elissa what's-her-name Elissa the actress whose

[3:20]

what's-her-name Elissa the actress whose name of forgetting at the moment you know she tweets about him and supports him and stuff and even her tweets and her support for him looks like she's working at it it looks like she had to swallow hard and say well vote for Joe Biden I mean it just everything about his supporters screams I wish I didn't have to be doing this it's this or burning or chomp and what am I going to do so that's the most ridiculous poll number I've ever seen that 24 percent of people are enthusiastic about Biden there are none oh yeah Alyssa Milano I'm sorry forgot her name how could I forget a lesson Milano's name I must be really tired it's not like we don't hear her name enough I'll say again by the way yeah I say this because it makes you mad I think I enjoy it that but I think I enjoy bothering you with this I have a

[4:22]

enjoy bothering you with this I have a lot of respect for Alyssa Milano while I would not agree with many of her positions politically or otherwise she is the real deal she's not just celebrity drive-by she's she's invested she's got skin in the game she is trying to make the country better in the way that the way that she thinks would work so while I don't think she should get all of the things she wants I'm very happy about her being a high level player with you know good intentions and she's part of the process and she's effective I have a lot of respect for that same as I do for you know anybody on the other side who just does a good job you know whether it's AOC or Van Jones or you know David Axelrod I mean you can find a lot of people who you may not agree with their opinions all the time but you say well okay that's a reasonable person who's actually trying to do what's good good

[5:23]

actually trying to do what's good good for the country in their own way all right there was a poll I guess this one was Rasmussen I believe and it showed that only Democratic voters believed by majority anyway only Democratic voters believe by majority that quote it's so funny it's hard even to read the sentence you know I've told you before that the news and humor have completely merged there's no real difference between comedy and the news but what you see is funny will be different than what what I see is funny be based on you know what team you're on what direction you're looking at your things but there's no snow such thing as just comedies anymore you know nobody almost nobody makes a comedy movie you know because people will be offended and nobody's gonna go anyway but politics is still funny and it's funny without even trying and and you tell me if this isn't funny

[6:24]

funny alright I'm just gonna read I'm gonna read the sentence the way it was tweeted I believe in Rasmussen Twitter feed about the study their own study I'll just read it straight and you tell me that this Strait fact is now funny all right here it is only democratic voters believe most reporters are simply trying to report the news in an unbiased fashioned
funny that there's somebody in this country and they can be easily identified with one side of the political divide believe that the news is actually the news well actually more than a half of Democrats think the news is both legitimate and that the news people are trying to do it legitimately how could you possibly see that no matter what news you're watching I don't

[7:25]

matter what news you're watching I don't care which outlay you're looking at how can you possibly think that aren't we way beyond that aren't we now I still think there are you know individual news people who are you know just trying to report the news straight that's true but in general I think it's fair to say that in general the news is no longer the old fashioned news it's really just different interests they are moving their interests alright question for you because I don't know you're seeing everybody on seems like everybody on social media is blowing up over their world health organization and their statement that mess don't work when obviously by the way my nose isn't running it's itching and I'm trying not to touch my face in front of you it's just psychosomatic let's say so was

[8:27]

it's just psychosomatic let's say so was I saying oh who told you this first where where is the first place you ever heard this so when all of our professionals were telling us that wearing masks Oh God the edge wouldn't help who's the first person you heard say in public well that's just a lie like it's just an obvious lie they're wearing masks won't help you in any way and the reason s key is because I think I'm the first person who sent it publicly because you know there are a lot of people saying it now but it's harder to say it when you're the first person because I said it just looking at the news from the most qualified professional authoritative medical sources right I mean I looked at complete agreement across all the spectrum of medical

[9:28]

across all the spectrum of medical sources and a hundred percent of them said no joke these maslow help don't wear them and alone among I felt I felt like a low and among observers and I doubt I was alone you one has to assume that in other places people were saying the same thing but I didn't see it when I said it and I said well let's just clearly a lie here's why I thought it was a lie it's a little book called loser think it's my book I'm sure you've all read it if you haven't what's what's wrong you've got all this time and on page 153 of my future forward book there's a chapter called friction allow me to read a small sample from my book it says in political discussions you often see partisans talking in binary terms for example that a particular plan will completely stop some bad thing or

[10:28]

will completely stop some bad thing or otherwise they will do nothing but in the real world often the best you can do is to create some friction to slow down the things you wish would stop completely now I go on and talk about the wall and border security and saying that ya know a wall is not meant to stop every person it's meant to be friction so slow this thing down down to a manageable level likewise when somebody the first time the expert said that the virus is spread through the air coming in into your mouth and then the very next sentence is wearing a bear / that error won't make anything better that was sort of the end of the credibility right at that point there was no point in even listening to the professionals anymore ever at least or at least believed in them because if they would tell you something that's so obviously not true I mean something that your own eyes and ears and and brain can

[11:30]

your own eyes and ears and and brain can say no no a barrier stops air at least a little bit you know is the air coming out of your mouth gonna go as far as it has to go through a mask of course not of course not so it's a clear case where the mask created friction in this case friction for the the air and the virus so of course it made a difference not a hundred percent but whoever said it would so here's my problem with that we watched our I'll just pick you know one person from the experts our Surgeon General so our Surgeon General has said this right to our faces in public multiple times do you think he knows it's a lie because there are one or two possibilities either the Surgeon General lied to the public in public you know multiple times about the effectiveness

[12:31]

multiple times about the effectiveness of facemask during a health crisis remember this is a world pandemic what is more important than the most important credible health professionals telling you the truth there's nothing more important than that's the most important thing is that your most credible health professionals need to tell you the truth now the weird exception might be if they're trying to prevent a run on critical supplies which would not be in the interest of the greater good but here's what I I'm gonna put this I'm gonna put a stake down right here okay you ready here's my stake our Surgeon General got in front of our country and lied to our faces in an obvious lie not even a little bit slightly not a lie and he did it multiple in a crisis should he keep his job should the Surgeon General keep his job lying so grotesquely in a crisis to the

[13:34]

lying so grotesquely in a crisis to the American people repeated times now here's my answer to that it's complicated if after the crisis is over or at least after let's say the shortages are over let's say we get to the point where you know the press and the public and the politicians and the hospitals generally agree that finally we caught up and we have enough supplies once the shortage is over and everybody agrees it's over if the Surgeon General says to the American people I would like to apologize to you I lied to you but I did it intentionally here was my purpose my purpose was to stop a run on these supplies the mass and so that they could be used in the most you know the place where we can leverage them the best which is with health care professionals and people really needed them if he tells us that after the fact I might be okay with him keeping his job especially if he was ordered to do it right if he

[14:37]

if he was ordered to do it right if he said look I work for the administration the administration said I need you to go out there and shade the truth a little bit it's for the greater good and so I went out like a good soldier and I did it I would say okay I would say okay I would say you can keep your job you know as my opinion as a citizen because you've explained it you've apologized and you had a reason I'll take that but don't ask us to believe you again you know the the next time you tell us something can we believe you I mean that's a big problem right so I would say if he does not later say you know okay here's the deal I intentionally was shading the truth because it was good for the country if he doesn't say that well I think he needs to be fired right wouldn't you agree that's definitely firing offense I mean I can't even think of anything that would be more testily obviously a firing offense then

[15:39]

testily obviously a firing offense then lying about the value of face mass to a country where people are dying because of bad advice you know don't you think there were some people who had face masks could have warned them they weren't gonna you know donate their one mask to the hospital or anything don't you think you killed some people I think you did I mean statistically speaking probably somebody died who didn't need to because they didn't wear a mask if they had one in the closet because they had bad advice so that's a pretty big deal but let's let's hold off and I'm gonna say this a few more times let's hold off on you know shooting the people on our own team let's wait because if he has a good explanation I'm open to it but otherwise he has to be fired of course there's some tweets going around today I guess on February 7th secretary Pompeo was tweeting photo of American planes being loaded up or unloaded I

[16:41]

planes being loaded up or unloaded I guess apparently in February 7th the United States sent many pallets of PPE the protective stuff that we need in this country and we have a shortage of we sent a plane load to Wuhan to help them with their shortage now people are saying my god you incompetent monsters you president Trump and Secretary of Pompeo how could you possibly be sending our limited supplies which we're basically you know right at the ragged edge of running out of in our crisis how could you send our critical national resources to a strategic frenemy enemy whatever you want to call China how does that make sense well let me tell you everybody's ingenious in hindsight how many people in the United States be they political or scientific knew on February

[17:44]

political or scientific knew on February 7th that the United States would run Anna's protective equipment or raise your hand raise your hand if on February 7th you knew that the United States didn't have enough of this stuff and couldn't make it fast enough and or couldn't get a supply right your raise your hand if you knew that On February 7th you fricking liars if you got your hands up you didn't know Pompeyo didn't know Trump didn't know of course there were scientists and of course there were probably individuals who were saying no no maybe you shouldn't do that but nobody knew in February 7th here's why I know we didn't know because we still don't know do you know if we have enough let's say and 95 masks not only available but do we have enough in the pipeline so we'll be ok do you know no you don't know you don't know I don't know is there anybody in the world who

[18:45]

know is there anybody in the world who knows no the reason I know we don't know this because pence said yesterday we don't know that was yesterday how did he know how could he have known in February 7th we wouldn't have enough do you think on February 7th Mike Pence knew we didn't have enough mass he doesn't know today he doesn't know nobody knows nobody's even collected the fricking information do you did you know on February 7th that we had no mechanism for all of their hospitals in the country to report what critical supplies they might run out of in a crisis that system didn't exist so flying completely blind the president presumably in the Secretary of State probably in others made a decision to give some supplies that they had access to to Wuhan I don't know if those supplies made any difference at all you know I don't even know if it's enough because even when

[19:46]

know if it's enough because even when they talk about millions and millions of anything yeah when it comes to medical supplies you actually go through millions of stuff really really quickly so you can see really big numbers of what we shipped and you know it might have been one one Hospital rips through them and you know five days or something so it's not as much as you think that's the first thing and as a percentage of the United States total supply of that equipment what do you think it was if you had to guess of our totally United States supply of whatever that medical equipment was how much of it do you think we gave to China on that one airplane well less than one percent don't you think less than one percent and at the time I don't think that our officials knew who made this stuff knew we had a shortage I don't think anybody knew so if they made a decision back then to do something that would have obviously great you know

[20:46]

that would have obviously great you know diplomatic potential and you know in establishing this as a you know credible world player and being helpful even to people who are maybe not as helpful to us while we're still negotiating you know part two of the trade deal I think this probably made sense on February 7th in retrospect you could say it was wrong but we're still in the battle and if you're bayonetting people while the battle is still raging you're not on our side that would like you to be be on our side for a while
here's here's the reason you will get blocked by me on Twitter or periscope so I just sort of put that out there so in the in a comment on Twitter today you know I responded to somebody they responded back and then some third person comes in and says of me he won't respond to any more your block so I'll block people for telling me what I will

[21:47]

block people for telling me what I will do and what I am thinking those are the two things you can't comment on without getting blocked because you don't know what I'm gonna do and you don't know what I'm thinking and if you're out in public telling people what I'm gonna do or what I'm thinking I don't want to have anything to do with you because you're not a you're not a useful person but you're just being in trouble so that's in the media block just so you know
apparently here's a weird outcome of this coronavirus is that the illegal drug business is struggling because they're not getting the necessary chemical components from China to which I said wait what now I knew their fentanyl was come you know the precursors were coming in from China and then the cartels were mixing him up and sending them north so I knew that China

[22:48]

sending them north so I knew that China was the source of things through Mexico and in terms of fentanyl but I didn't know that that was also true for heroin and meth so whatever chemicals I don't know if it's the poppies or something else but apparently China is also the source for other major drugs going through Mexico into the United States I didn't fully understand that I did not fully understand that I thought it might be limited to maybe you know one bad laboratory or to doing the fentanyl stuff I didn't know that apparently the majority if you don't count marijuana which is grown in this country now it looks like the majority of the hard drug stuff not counting cocaine I guess is coming from China or at least the ability to make it so this has completely revised my opinion of what's going on because before I would have said to myself yeah yeah China you need to try harder to clamp down on those one

[23:49]

to try harder to clamp down on those one or two laboratories that are sending fentanyl products but it felt like an individual problem didn't it you get blocked from that to this person who got blocked those what they did alright so now that I know that there is a more robust robust highway of you know illegal drug stuff coming from China through Mexico into the United States now I think you could just say that's just war I would say that's war so before I thought d'arnot China you should try harder to stop your individuals who were sending bad things into Mexico and then into our country but now it doesn't look like that at all to me it doesn't look like that at all now it just looks like a war we didn't know we were fighting or I didn't know I guess our government knew but maybe wanted to interpret it in a different way but to me this is just war we're at

[24:52]

way but to me this is just war we're at war with China they're sending weapons of mass destruction through Mexico into the United States and killing Americans by tens of thousands try not to swear those of you who have been with me for a while you know that I lost my stepson in 2018 to a fentanyl overdose and you know that my opinion about China is largely influenced by that so I'm not a biased I'm not an unbiased observer when it comes to China but I don't think people quite understand that we're in a hot war just doesn't happen to involve bullets and bombs but if China is willingly and obviously the crisis caused them to have a production stopped that was enough to to rattle the cartels on the other side of the world it's pretty obvious not not pretty often it's completely obvious that the that the Chinese government is

[25:53]

that the that the Chinese government is supporting the drug trade through China and killing tens of thousands of Americans a year and that's war you know I thought you know I felt like it was a little bit war when it was just fentanyl and it maybe was individuals but now that I know it's really a whole you know a system well that's just a war so at this point I would say to myself oh man I didn't try so hard not to curse I'm gonna try to get through Sunday without cursing in public see if I could do that I can't tell you how much I hate China if if that hasn't come through to you and again I want to be clear not to Chinese people I don't think I've ever been a Chinese people I didn't like you know but the government is pure evil and we can't do business with them anymore so we have to decouple and we're gonna have to take them down in the process so

[26:55]

have to take them down in the process so I don't think there's any way that the future looks anything but this China has some bad years ahead of it I'm gonna do everything I can to make sure that's true I can make sure that the country of China as long as they keep their current form of government which is a cancer as long as they keep their current form of government their future is worse I'm gonna work every day of my life at least a little bit at least persuasion wise to take China off of the top shelf and make sure that they fall and get worse every year from that point on economically militarily influence wise and reputation wise and I'm sure a lot of people will be joining me in that fight but I think at this point if the United States does just does business as usual which I know when this is all done and we just start trading with them like normal then I would say the government of the United States is that my enemy and at least in

[27:57]

States is that my enemy and at least in terms of whatever the administration is that's doing that and if an administration came along that was promising to stop doing that I would support them over-over the Trump administration so it's war and I don't I don't play a war to lose do you if you're in a war do you do you play to lose do you play for a draw this is war now we're at war with China it's obvious we have been we just didn't want to call it that but now it's kind of obvious and I'm not even talking about the you know the Chinese virus I don't know what the origin of that is that feels more like a mistake than intentional but they certainly didn't help us they didn't help us the way we would have expected a reasonable country to help us so at this point I would say that closing the border of Mexico is how you win the war with China and that anybody

[28:58]

win the war with China and that anybody who at this point now that we understand that we're at a war with China they're sending drugs through the cartels into the United States if you still don't want to close the border with China you're a lost cause now maybe you just don't understand the situation but I would say for anybody who now understands this situation and that it really is China at war with the United States sending their weapons of mass destruction through the border with Mexico if you're not if you're not ready to close the border now and whatever that takes drones and military and walls in some places whatever it takes if you're not willing to do that now whose side are you on I mean at this point you just got to take sides it's not even an opinion piece anymore you just have to take sides I'm on Team America I would like to see China's fate turn very very bad in the next few years and I'm gonna work to

[29:59]

next few years and I'm gonna work to make sure that happens unless they reform the government which would be fine that's first choice all right um there's a article speaking of this in The New York Times about maybe sending home the Chinese spies at media companies what wait what am i understanding the story right and the New York Times that the US government is considering maybe sending home the Chinese spies that work for media companies in the United States what what are you telling me that we know they're spies and they're working in the United States writing stories that you and I are reading what of course you should send them all home dude should we care that China is expelling our journalists probably not because I can't imagine journalists can actually operate in China anyway

[30:59]

actually operate in China anyway do you think it matters if we had journalists in China probably not because it probably just spies or at least some of them don't but do we care if we have spies or if we do we care if we have journalists US journalists in China why would we care they're not getting any stories right because if they ever reported anything negative about China they'd be kicked out anyway so what is the point of having a u.s. journalist any of them even one why would even need one they're not getting a getting a stories they're not breaking any news that's not going to happen what's the point so they're kicking out our journalists big deal and then it's reported almost nonchalantly that we somehow know about all these Chinese spies in our media structure to which I say why aren't they gone now like why are we waiting for the end of today is it because we don't know exactly which ones are spies and which ones are just you know people born in China who are

[32:00]

you know people born in China who are working over here is it because we can't tell maybe that's why now let me say something else which I cannot source but I'll tell you it's a hobby yes all right you want to know something that's true and obvious at this point that some amount of the let's say the unexplained behavior of your social media platforms is foreign spies and so can I prove this now but I'm gonna make a statement of fact and I'm gonna do it with high confidence but I don't have a source I'm just I'm just saying that common sense and everything you know about the world will tell you this is true and this is one of the benefits of studying economics by the way you know there's some things that you can predict to be true every time just because you know economics you know economics will have

[33:01]

economics you know economics will have an influence on people that's fairly predictable on average over time so for example in economics if somebody if if the same product we're being sold for you know hundred dollars here and dollars here you don't have to be psychic to know that as long as people know that it's the same product that people will buy more of the cheap one right so there's just some things in economics that guarantee you're seeing the future as close as that can be guaranteed right nothing's 100% and in the world is just very clear once you understand economics and psychology here's one of those cases if you were Russia or you were China or you were even one of our allies named an ally I won't pick favorites and you could and let's say it was possible and you could put people who were loyal to your country but not the United States if you could place them into jobs at the major

[34:01]

could place them into jobs at the major social media platforms you know let's say you're Google's and you're youtubes and you're Facebook's and your Twitter and your Instagram if you could do it would you do it right there any question about that if they could do it wouldn't you all agree that they would you know if we could put a spy in a major social media platform company in China what do we do it well obviously of course we would if we could put an American spy into some important social entity your company or business in Russia would we do it obviously we would that's what we do if China could influence somebody who's already working at one of the platforms or or longer-term like promote somebody you

[35:01]

longer-term like promote somebody you know help somebody's career until they get a job there if China could put their own agents into the social media platform companies would they do it do you have any question that they would do it well no no no you don't have any question yeah I see people mentioning different comfort countries yeah so some countries are you're more active and more successful spying so you know nobody would be surprised you know if Great Britain or Israel or you know even France or Germany or any of the big countries so nobody should be surprised if any of the major countries are putting spies into any of the other major countries so none of that should be a surprise so here's the thing you know I've been saying from the beginning that I I doubted that whatever was happening on Twitter that was hard to explain that was either you know the the most coincidental series of computer

[36:03]

most coincidental series of computer bugs or somebody's messing with us right those were the two possibilities because it was obvious something was happening you could look at it and track it and write it down and you could see that things were happening to some follower accounts and likes were being unliked and stuff like that and I had told you that in my opinion unless I'm the worst judge of character in the world and I don't think I am that Twitter management doesn't know what's going on and my hypothesis is as foreign foreign spies have embedded themselves or have access to the API or have access through apps they have you've given control to your Twitter accounts there might be 50 different ways they could do it but I think some of the irregularities you're having and I'll give you the here's sort of the canary in the coal mine you know the problem I had with being unfollowed from Richard Grinnell so ambassador of Grinnell of Germany it was probably the

[37:05]

Grinnell of Germany it was probably the most high-profile ambassador wouldn't you say I think he's probably the most high-profile ambassador we all know him is there anybody who doesn't know the name of Richard Grinnell probably not there's probably not one of you watching this who hasn't heard his name now name another diplomat go name one other diplomat for any country an American diplomat working anywhere can he name one probably not right so Richard Grinnell I think you'd agree the most famous diplomat who also has a good reputation people like him and I looked at his Twitter followers and it's like two hundred and fifteen thousand or something I have twice as many Twitter followers as our most famous diplomat who is very active he was far more famous than I am far more active and he has half as many Twitter followers now a lot of people reported when I pointed out that I had

[38:07]

reported when I pointed out that I had been unfollowed from him in other words I had followed him and then I wasn't anymore on two separate occasions that I know of I checked it this morning and I'm still following him and a bunch of other people said hey I asked people to check it and said hey it happened to me too
too happened to me too so all kinds of people said they're positive they followed him it's not really something you'd forget you know cuz it's a conscious decision now so let me ask you this do you think that there was a is it more likely that there was somebody who works for Twitter who was you know like some rogue employee just some American who didn't like Trump who decided to reduce the voice of Richard Grinnell well maybe but doesn't it seem more likely that he would be targeted by another country because most of what Grinnell talks about is our relationship with other countries he doesn't really

[39:08]

with other countries he doesn't really say grossly just you know President Trump is the best president I mean it does some of that because he's part of the administration but he's mostly talking about other countries and our relationship to them that's sort of his deal and his voice probably I would guess that his his natural Twitter following would be over a million by now I'm guessing just you know given his visibility and you know his importance in the world I think he'd have a million Twitter followers by now being an active tweeter so who is more likely to have reduced his voice now if you were saying to me hey somebody reduced you know Jack pasaba case I would immediately say oh that might be internal politics you know because there are some people who are talking more about domestic politics all the time and if you saw their their voice being reduced somehow by some unseen entity your first

[40:09]

somehow by some unseen entity your first thought would be hey is there somebody who works at Twitter who's doing this it was this management or a rogue employee and that would be a reasonable thing but when you see Richard Grinnell being I think obviously targeted in some way for a reduced voice and he's mostly talking about our relationship with other countries who do you think did it isn't it more likely another country did it so that's my hypothesis with no no proof for any of that so the the official story is that we don't know we don't know why it seems that all say seems officially nobody there really knows why this stuff's happened all right so I saw a complaint that I think wasn't CNN they were saying that the the emergency relief bill had a gift in it for rich

[41:10]

relief bill had a gift in it for rich people and I thought to myself well that probably didn't happen yeah that was my first my first impression when I saw the headline is like really really somebody's gonna stick in a gift for the top 1% a tax break for the top 1% somebody somebody put that into this relief bill seriously and so I thought okay fake news I'll read this and it won't just the headline won't even match the content which is what we're getting used to and I read the content and I thought oh my god this is true you know you can't believe anything's true but here's here's the the claim that there was a substantial change in the tax code so that real estate moguls can write off some capital gains losses in a way more favorable way than before to which I say to myself what does that have to do with the recovery what what

[42:13]

have to do with the recovery what what did that have to do with the recovery what what what a pathetic performance by our Congress I mean I I think I'm beyond hate you know it starts with well I'm not I don't have a lot of confidence in Congress then there's some point where you just hate them and I think I pass through hate I'm at this is pathetic they should just be embarrassed every day
day I mean first like I guess we have to fact check whether this this real estate depreciation slash write-off tax break for the rich I guess we have to see if it's true because just because it's reported doesn't mean it's true unfortunately but if it's true that's just pathetic just pathetic and I would say that nobody in Congress should be reelected be they Republican be they independent be they're democratic so you

[43:14]

independent be they're democratic so you know in case you're wondering if I'm being partisan I don't care if every Republican in the Congress and the Senate loses their job in the next election that'd be fine with me and moreover I don't even care what the mix is when it's done I don't care if there are more Democrats or more Republicans or more anything I don't care I think at this point they all need to lose their job because if they if that's true is that true I mean first of all I got it I need to know if it's true but if it is they all need to be fired
I've seen two completely different medical opinions on how this corona virus gets transmitted I will tell you the two opinions I've heard and then I will tell you that I don't know how to know which one's right but I'll just pass along so both of these are not scientific studies these are based on doctors who are working on the front lines and they're reporting so some of this is

[44:15]

and they're reporting so some of this is anecdotal but it's the people were in the fight so it's not people watching the fight these are doctors who were actually intubating people and putting them on ventilators you know they're they're right in it in New York City one of them said here's the good news that if you're really good about washing your hands and social distancing you and not touching your face so if you do those three things this one doctor said you know wash your hands like crazy wear a mask mostly to prevent you from touching your own face it's just good and do your social distancing this doctor says the odds of getting it if you do though just those three things are basically vanishingly small now that's based on his experience not based on studies okay because and the idea is I guess he wasn't seeing people who had it unless they also had a story of close contact meaning and he defined it as you know baby it could be a handshake but also it could be you know spouses hugging there's nothing so then

[45:19]

spouses hugging there's nothing so then another doctor had a very different story he said that he's hearing from people who had no known contact with someone who had it but they had been to the grocery store and that was their only exposure so the idea is that people who went shopping were also turning up in in emergency rooms and that was the only known exposure they had to the public they just had to go buy food and come home now that's still anecdotal it doesn't mean that they got it from buying groceries it still allows and by the way the the first doctor who said your odds of getting it are very low did not say go shopping so I think they're both on the same page that if you can avoid physically going to a store especially if you're you know if you're in a danger zone or you're older or something you should do it so I think they're both consistent of that but one is saying that you know the grocery

[46:20]

is saying that you know the grocery store is a source if you go in person and then the other doctor was saying that food that is delivered to your house us so long as you you know wear gloves when you're opening it up or at least you're you're washing hands after you've just exposed after you've disposed of the outer bag this one doctor said probably by the time you get to the food your odds of getting something are very low so he's suggest getting delivery if he can all right here's a apparently president Trump has a forty nine percent approval rating which approaches a career high and sixty percent of Americans now approve of this handling including more than a quarter of Democrats handling of the crisis now you might say to yourself you may say to yourself but what about all the things he should have done differently how

[47:22]

he should have done differently how could even Democrats be happy with the president when it's reported on CNN every day that he's getting his facts are on the public and that he should have done whatever Souter but why is the public not responding to that the way they normally do why is the public saying now he's doing a good job even when the enemy press is telling him is telling the public that he's not he should have done things sooner should have things done things differently should have talked about it differently you should have you know not add those facts wrong so what why is the public seeing past the reporting this time when normally they don't it's not everybody but a lot of them are seeing past the reporting and I hope it's this I hope it's this one of them is we've learned that nobody knew how much inventory we needed or why we needed it or who had it

[48:22]

needed or why we needed it or who had it so I think we've learned that nobody had the basic knowledge that we weren't prepared and therefore didn't know we needed to prepare because nobody even knew we were not prepared probably in the government anyway I mean I'm
I'm I feel confident in saying that before this started probably nobody ever told President Trump directly or pence hey if we have a pandemic we're gonna run out of all these supplies I doubt anybody told them that right so is it the president's fault that we got caught unprepared well look at every other country every other country got unprepared was China ready in the hell was South Korea ready now was was Japan ready now a hundred percent of countries weren't ready so is the public saying okay I get what you're saying CNN and MSNBC but you realize there are a lot of countries and none of them already maybe that context sort of changes that you filled out secondly a lot of the a

[49:25]

you filled out secondly a lot of the a lot of people are making hay and of something that should have been done sooner and this is one of those topics so so somebody who writing said they they think that you know Trump should have acted sooner to either close the airports or close travel he should have acted sooner to do social distancing you should have acted sooner to get supplies that are in shortages now is it true just objectively speaking that we would be better off if he had acted sooner yes yes we can all agree with that right no matter what political side you're on we would all agree that things would be better if we had acted sooner but I would like to make this standard so here's a standard I would like to suggest there was one smart person in the world and all of the rest of us are okay that's the frame you should put on that because we don't know who it was like we can't put a name to

[50:26]

who it was like we can't put a name to the one person who's not an but we can know the rest of us are and here's why whoever was the first person in the world be they American be they Chinese be they whatever but let's say American let's just limit to America whoever was the first American who said we should stockpile our supplies in case whoever was the first American who said we should close you know travel from China before even I did I said it on January 24th Jack Poe Sabich said it a few days before that maybe somebody said it before us I would guess that was probably somebody in the world who said it first so I want to be very clear we don't know who that was but of all the seven billion people in the world and of all the 370 million Americans however many there are there was one of us who was right and also first the rest of us are stupid

[51:28]

also first the rest of us are stupid aren't we because we were too late we were all too late I mean I was so proud it's like hey January 24th I was already yelling at the top of my lungs close that Airport look at me haha I beat some other people I got there before other people did know I'm an why am I an because I didn't get it first Wyatt why wasn't I saying it when the first person was saying it what's wrong with me yeah so let me make this standard if you don't know who the first person was who got to the right answer before you did because you know now it's retrospect we're all we all have great hindsight right now we know it didn't make sense now we know we should go in sooner but there was somebody don't know it was who was way before me way before anybody and it was probably already saying hey we better get some supplies in hey we better better close our borders so if you're

[52:31]

better close our borders so if you're not that person well then you're an because you weren't smart enough wise enough to know we should have done it sooner it doesn't help that you know it now what good is that what good is it that you know it now that we should have done this sooner that's useless oh we're all geniuses now about the past but if you weren't the first person then you're like all the rest of us you're just Nestle who wishes you had been smarter in the past
all right I guess I didn't make it through Sunday without using a bad word I'm gonna double down on my estimate for the total death toll in America from the coronavirus so since the time I've been making an estimate I think I've been consistent so maybe not we'll see but lately I've been saying this I think I think it will be 5,000 now you might say

[53:31]

think it will be 5,000 now you might say to yourself Scott Scott Scott that's way off because we're already at 2000 right in this country I think we have is that right mm we cross 2000 already for this country and we're closer to the start than the end at least some people think so that's my estimate 5,000 total which would be way less than even the common flu I think the common flu it takes out like 30 to 80 thousand a year or something like that in the United States so that would be a tiny tiny death rate now does that mean that we have overestimated the crisis no what I'm my my prediction is entirely based on people getting more clever and more serious and working harder so yes I'm seeing a confirmation that it's over 2,000 deaths so I think you're gonna see when we hit around 4,000 deaths which

[54:33]

when we hit around 4,000 deaths which isn't going to take long by the way that could be by the end of the week so we're around 4,000 deaths we're gonna have this figured out by figured out I mean we'll have enough masks and we'll know to wear them or we'll start to have enough we'll have beds that we know work and we'll start to use them we'll have ventilators that we didn't have that now we have and I think that you'll see here's my prediction I think that you're gonna see one of the most amazing human feats of all time and it's going to happen right in front of you you know we all get we're all we're all in the audience for this one right everybody gets to watch out of the Krone iris turns out nobody nobody's not paying attention and we're gonna watch the human species pull together into one you know mega creature you know like a like a transformer you know we're a bunch of individuals with something like

[55:33]

bunch of individuals with something like the government but when this Kuroda virus hit the the body human just suddenly formed and connected over the internet and started acting like you know it took a while we're still evolving into this greater creature but we formed a like a whole different species which is whatever is the sum of us all working together normally we're not working together so it's not a species it's like individual cells just doing what they do but boy when we were threatened we just formed up into a big old you know global brain with lots of arms and legs and just started flailing at this virus from every possible direction learning what we could taking casualties you know putting field field hospitals in there and we went to war and we're in it right now so as my estimate I don't believe anybody who is responsible will have an

[56:33]

anybody who is responsible will have an estimate that low because if your job is to be a scientist and to keep everybody scared so they do the right thing you're gonna use big numbers and I think I'm okay with that from a precision perspective what you can't do if you're a legitimate scientist or even a politician is you can't say what I just did you know I can say that because I'm just observing I don't have an official job and so I can say yeah I think you're gonna see something akin to a miracle not not a God miracle but a human miracle where the level of ingenuity will just be I think historic it'll be crazy you see it already alright let's see what else we got going on those are the main things
somebody says Styx was one of the first to call out the virus response well if he was the first then all of the rest of

[57:36]

he was the first then all of the rest of us have something to answer to if somebody was before him well then he's just an just like you are just like I am we're all if we were too late and I don't think there's anything I'm gonna have less patience for then people on our own team meaning human beings fighting this virus if people are the human being team are bayonetting people on their own team during the battle while the battle is raging I'm gonna go after the the Bayon enters and I'm gonna go pretty hard at the critics who imagined that they knew what the right thing was and they knew it on time if you can't find that first person you're an so am i all right
we continue to watch with great curiosity the stories and or lack of stories about the high hydroxychloroquine it feels like the

[58:38]

hydroxychloroquine it feels like the only news we're getting about that drug that's being trialed along with is that through my son the news were getting seems to be from sketchy sources and foreign studies and you know a doctor who just says I tried it once a a patient who tried it and it seems to have worked but it's not a scientific study so it's beginning to be obvious to me that there's I won't call it a cover-up oh okay I'll call it a cover-up all right let me give you an example the New York Times just did a big article about why Germany's death rate is so low compared to others so it's a whole article about what they did differently you know how their response is what their demographic is you know the timing of things that the political decisions the medical decisions so it's a New York Times article so it's it's researched there's a lot of there's a lot of detail in there about all the things the

[59:38]

in there about all the things the Germans did that's different from what everybody else did do you know what wasn't mentioned hydroxychloroquine there was a whole article in The New York Times about what they were doing right and not doing right and it didn't even mention the drug that one must presume they're using over there didn't even mention it you know it would be one thing to say well they're also using this drug but nobody has a good idea whether that's working or not right wouldn't that be at what you would expect to see in that story and that ladies and gentlemen is the dog that was not barking it's the one that I've been telling you about for a while and you know I've been hinting about it but I'm just gonna tell you directly now the dog that's not barking is if you see a story about another country that was or was not successful and it doesn't even mention hydroxychloroquine doesn't

[1:00:41]

mention hydroxychloroquine doesn't mention that they used it doesn't mention they didn't use it doesn't mention they considered it it just doesn't mention it you're seeing manipulation on a level that should make you want to overthrow your government meaning that the the media and presumably the government are they must be working together at least in a limited way to prevent you from having this information right because clearly the New York Times knows that the hydroxychloroquine is one of the biggest variables we don't know if it works I'll say this every time my work might not but it's certainly the most you know besides ventilators it's probably the most important thing that people talk about it's not even mentioned in a major feature story about Germany are you kidding me you know this is as bad as the the government telling you that

[1:01:41]

the the government telling you that masks don't work even a little bit and you just look at it you say well that's not just a lie that's a lie like you think I'm really stupid that's a sort of what do you think of me that you would tell me the fabric doesn't slow down air and you would expect me to believe it well like how dumb do you think I am and then you see a feature story about Germany without mentioning this drug positively or negatively and I look at that and I go like how dumb do you think I am how dumb it do you think I am that I would believe that's anything like news that is just propaganda or something I don't know it looks like the government have probably ordered them not to report on that is my guess or or they voluntarily decided to because the you know they may they may be part of reducing the hoarding of it maybe that's good all right here's some

[1:02:45]

maybe that's good all right here's some bad thinking I've been seeing people have been saying to me why is it the that you don't see any celebrities and/or athletes dying and of course the conspiracy thinking is well they must be getting the good drugs you know because they're not dying well maybe but how about there's a more likely explanation the more likely explanation is that your celebrities and athletes are all in a really good shape and the one thing we know is that if your youngish and or you're in good shape you do better now Tom Hanks is I think right around my age yes but he's clearly in better shape than other 60 year olds wouldn't you agree I mean you just look at Tom Hanks you say okay he works out you know you watches what he eats is pretty obvious so he's not the kind you'd expect to have a bad outcome now on top of that

[1:03:45]

have a bad outcome now on top of that they also probably got the hydroxychloroquine and the best the best possible treatment but you know especially if you see like an NBA player and he doesn't die well there's a reason for that he's an NBA player he's an elite athlete his body as a his body as a sports car of course he can beat a virus so it doesn't mean that there's kind of some kind of special treatment although that probably is it just could be that they're healthier and younger and they take better care of themselves and their haven't been that many an 80% of people get over it anyway and so far none of the celebrities have been you know obese and elderly so maybe there's very low death rate somebody in the comments says that Japanese girls have cute feet thank you for noting that I think that fit the topic perfectly Trump's body

[1:04:46]

fit the topic perfectly Trump's body motto is money over morals like you know those are those are like the lowest level of political comment yeah a person who with no profile picture comes in Trump has an inner thought that he likes money more than humanity it's like you did you animate a fish I mean what kind of brain does it take to think well this is I think this can add to the public discourse I'll just pretend I can hallucinate what a stranger is thinking that should be good people are noting that Tom Hanks has diabetes yeah you know you've heard the diabetes is a risk factor but I'm just gonna put this out there as a hypothesis the people who have diabetes tend not to look like Tom Hanks I'm all right now I don't know percentage-wise how many are you know still can maintain their weight and be

[1:05:47]

still can maintain their weight and be healthy and also have diabetes but I've known a lot of people with diabetes they don't look like Tom Hanks if you know what I'm talking about right people with diabetes have a tough time generally keeping their way down they tend to have other issues that compound you know you get the diabetes and it's one thing after another so you know if you're if you're on top of it as successfully as I'm guessing somebody like Tom Hanks would be meaning keeping yourself healthy in general etc it's probably not the same risk as somebody who's 400 pounds and has diabetes alright let's see what else people are saying Harvey Weinstein is in trouble though yeah you know you can't believe anything about any Harvard Harvey Weinstein stories who knows what's happening in there but certainly he's you would be the target

[1:06:48]

certainly he's you would be the target for that that virus are you working out more often now that you stopped going to the gym the answer is yes well you know I always I always worked out every day that I could and I'm still doing that but I think I'm working out better so what I changed was it wouldn't be unusual if I went to the gym and tried to exhaust myself you know try to get the most benefit I could and you know I don't have to do much later so I just like wear myself out but I don't do that because I would lower my immunity temporarily so instead I changed my exercise habits so it's long walks instead of say using the Stairmaster running or anything like that because the long walk is just nothing but good it's like it's just good for you and you feel it so I told you before that I'd skip today in the middle of this to see how differently I felt and there was a big difference you know my whole how much I well I slapped my attitude my

[1:07:50]

much I well I slapped my attitude my stress everything was different just because I did or did not take a walk and so I yesterday I just got overwhelmed with stuff to do and I didn't have time and it was raining and I didn't get out and man I felt it I 1 a.m. this morning I woke up and I was just up yeah I was just up for the day because I didn't exercise so my body wasn't just couldn't sleep that long you know if I don't exercise I'm good for three or four hours of sleep and then my body just it's like it has to go do something I can't I can't sleep after that but if I've exercised I can all right
here's here's one way you know your government is failing on this crisis I think we'll get to the end of it and we'll do what we have to do but there's going to be a lot of you know mistake correction mistake correction and we should look at that generously when it's done because nobody knows what to do and

[1:08:52]

done because nobody knows what to do and that's just the fact nobody knows what to do we got to try stuff and then quickly correct if it didn't work but one of the things that you would have to say is clearly a mistake if it goes on much longer and much longer would be I'd say end of today if you don't see good reporting on which hospitals need which supplies and you know what their peak need would be what they have and what's in the pipeline for them if you don't see that reporting by say the end of today doesn't have to be perfectly accurate but at least the beginning of that you know that system for reporting I would say we're not competently handling this because you don't manage something you don't measure if you don't think that's the most profound statement in all of human psychology and management then you have not studied those fields this is the most profound and important thing you'll ever hear about getting groups of people to do

[1:09:54]

about getting groups of people to do something and it's this if you don't measure it you're not managing it you're just flailing around so you have to be able to measure what the situation is and then on an ongoing basis what am i doing to fix it and how much differences in making if you don't have that mechanism in place and we don't it's obvious we don't because you watch the task force and they're just guessing they're like well we got a shipment here and there's a plant working over here but there's no kind of idea of the total of that and what it looks like for the hospital's so at this point the task force is not it can be set as just a fact because that reporting is not in place it's simply the fact that it's not being managed would you agree you can't say the task force is managing the critical supply because they're not measuring it that's just a fact all right everybody everybody's got a background in

[1:10:54]

everybody's got a background in management and maybe even psychology in some cases you'll see in the comments there's a hundred percent agreement for the people of that that skill set and that talents that nobody will disagree with this by the way nobody will disagree with the statement that if you can't measure it you're not managing it right just that that is as hard a fact as there could ever be in the behavioral sciences and economics and management so but the good news is that vice-president pence clearly acknowledges that need and he said yesterday that that they're working hard to talk to the hospitals and gather that now once gathered I would say they're managing but I would also say that up until today nobody's been managing it people have been doing things but they're just flailing you know and many of those things are productive of course it makes

[1:11:55]

things are productive of course it makes sense to make more of the stuff so there's some things you can do where they actually managing it you just know you need more of it so everybody makes more of it if they can but it's not being managed management happens the moment you see the reports even if inaccurate because they'll get better over time that's when management begins so so don't think that we started managing that hasn't even started yet and so you look in the comments everybody's agreed all right that's enough on that I will talk to you tonight at 10 p.m. Eastern Time 7:00 p.m. Pacific don't miss it bring your blanket