Episode 876 Scott Adams: It’s Time For Your Nightly Simultaneous Swaddle. Get in Here!

Date: 2020-03-28 | Duration: 1:05:54

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: Abbott Labs device approved for 5 minute testing of COVID-19 99% of hospitals are NOT overwhelmed 80% of coronavirus deaths were obese CNN is being HORRIBLE in their coverage Mike Cernovich MVP for information on coronavirus crisis WHO lies to public that masks don’t help

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## Transcript

[0:04]

from pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom hey mary-rose come on in here everybody get in here Andrew it's about time we are about to experience the simultaneous swaddle this is the time of night when you find a nice soft blanket you wrap yourself in it feel the warm embrace Phil you're oxytocin start to spike because sometimes a baby monkey with a warm water bottle will think it's it's mom and it'll be happy and well-adjusted as long as it has its water bottle well we don't have water bottles but we have warm blankets yeah this is exactly the kind of world that needs a warm blanket you know what I mean now I'm gonna take some calls a little bit but I thought I'd catch you up with what's happened in the latest a few hours so here's some good news Abbott Labs just got approval for a

[1:05]

Abbott Labs just got approval for a quick test that you can do in five minutes as little as five minutes and and you can get negative results in 13 minutes this was a portable testing platform in other words a device that weighs six and a half pounds is about the size of a toaster now those have you been watching me for a while what did I tell you at the very beginning of the pandemic I told you that back in when 9/11 happened the government had asked the government labs with building some technology to rapidly test blood for this situation you know they were thinking terrorist attacks but it was it's the same it's the same requirement you need to test in the field as opposed to sending samples back to some lab so the the 911 task which the government laboratories were given was to make it fast and portable so add the labs as one

[2:08]

fast and portable so add the labs as one that's fast and portable which you'd not heard of before right now I told you that I had just by weird coincidence I had visibility into that world because I watched a lot of startups pitch hey we got this license from the government lab because once a government lab invents something that's useful for the public unless it's military the university is an unsure Brewers can dis license it so it's actually a real easy process to take some technology developed by the government non military and just license it and build it into your into your devices so I see the number of devices that done that and that was like three years ago so I speculated that although it was not any kind of amateur or a business they can build them so if I had to guess what happened I think the startups probably had trouble penetrating a very established business that you know made a lot of

[3:09]

business that you know made a lot of money for a lot of people probably was connected and all the political ways and it would sort of like uber coming in and dismantling the taxi business yeah the taxi business is pretty strong so they're gonna put up a fight right as they did so I'm guessing that the established you know laboratories and the way things were always done in the healthcare world probably was hard to change until you had an emergency and then all the all the friction went away so this is going to be actually one of the you know we've talked about how it's bad to have a war of any kind will be a human orbit virus you fighting but you can pretty much guarantee that unless the entire war is over in a week and that doesn't seem to be the case the humanity ends up solving a whole bunch of problems that weren't quite solvable in normal times you know you can you can just get stuff done in an emergency so

[4:10]

just get stuff done in an emergency so it might be that the entire business of blood testing just one from this ponderous impractical thing to something you can have in 15 minutes and you know what's wrong with you think think about just this one small thing just this the this 13-minute blood test presumably it wouldn't be hard to you know make it a blood test for other things not just coronavirus I'm just assuming that's the case what does it do to healthcare costs if your doctor says well I yeah I need a blood test and you walk over to your your medicine cabinet and you take out and I don't know $25 a kit and you just test your own blood with who knows how pinprick or whatever so I'm just speculating but there could be some immense immense systemic improvements that just come out of this yeah we talked about what's one of the kids gonna do when they you know when

[5:12]

kids gonna do when they you know when they've tasted working from home do they like it they hate it kids probably actually want to go back to school but I think for a lot of people online education will be more of a thing all right so that's good news how fast can they scale it up probably not fast enough but it does mean that there's a timer on the virus the fact that we can build a test the abbot's you know a big respected company obviously if abbas says we can make these things well they can make those things i don't know how hard it will be to make them in volume but it does tell you that if we're still having this problem in three months it's pretty much salt i can't imagine it would take more than three months under an emergency situation to get enough to really know what the situation is let's see what else we got going here still seeing lots of people say that the current impact on hospitals tells you

[6:15]

current impact on hospitals tells you something it doesn't the current impact on hospitals would tell you something if they were all full so you'd say okay you got me the the hospitals were all overloaded we're all in trouble so if that were the case that would definitely tell you something you know supposing it was overflowed more than any other past flume and overflown things and I think I mentioned this morning that in 2018 there was also a hospital capacity problem in some places just from normal flu but hypothetically if we had already blown past that number into new territory you could kind of say okay it looks like it was a big problem but it doesn't work the other way if we're not experiencing any capacity problem in 99% of the hospitals which i think is the case actually they're sort of just getting ready in case something is needed and you've got a few hospitals are impacted but even they are running

[7:15]

are impacted but even they are running on a ventilator z' doesn't doesn't look like it's really even that close at the moment what does that tell you about what the next two or three weeks or the next month looks like the answer is nothing nothing if it were already disaster you can conclude you got a big problem that's a disaster but if it's in the beginning of one and it's a predicted disaster and experts have their reasons I can't I can't judge the reasons but they seem pretty uniformly worried what could you tell today about hospital capacity nothing now one of the things you can tell is that the the news and social media to some extent are lying to you so there are a few things that you can tell for sure so you know every time you see these anecdotal reports with no hospital name and no name of the doctor I just am not buying them anymore I'm done with every anecdotal report

[8:16]

I'm done with every anecdotal report with no source no hospital and no no doctor named and then I did see one that looked like there was a doctor named or maybe a nurse I think was a nurse she did a video saying how bad things were but here's the thing as the as a creator of Dilbert there are some things that I can tell you with great authority you know I'm an expert in this little realm of employees complaining and the truth is that you could have found a nurse to give a very similar rant for any Hospital anywhere at any time you could find a nurse who will go on video and tell you everything's falling apart management's bad in there Anna supplies and it's a dangerous work environment so the fact that a nurse went on and said in my workplace it's a nightmare you know everything's wrong we're out of supplies and everything it could mean

[9:16]

supplies and everything it could mean that it you know it totally could mean that but it also could be nothing so just be aware of that all right I will take some questions as I promised I just want to talk about a couple things that are hanging out there so you know Thomas Massie I guess he had his he had his moment but I don't think it held anything up too much maybe fact check me on that you know if if all Thomas Massie did was make a point but it didn't have really any substantial difference in the timing of when the money got out then I would say alright you know maybe even a good play because you know I always compliment people for getting attention if they're politicians because getting attention is as I say half of persuasion so if all he did was raise his profile and make a point and you know now you know him as the guy who doesn't want you know

[10:18]

the guy who doesn't want you know unreasonable expenses for boondoggle and not boondoggles but for pork or whatever that's okay but if he held it up half a day I don't know if he did but if he did I'd have a problem with that that would be way too much to make that point but I don't have an opinion on it I don't know if they hold it up
Paul Graham tweeted out a couple of studies that showed then apparently we know this in other words this experience at other countries and maybe in ours already I'm not sure but one study said that 80% of the deaths from Corona by virus were very overweight and the speculative reason for that is that any weight in your chest area especially you know if your breathing is degraded you might have a little extra pressure just because the construction of your chest

[11:19]

because the construction of your chest and the extra extra fat cells I guess now I don't know that anybody knows that to be true but even more generally you know if you've got a weight problem you may be you know less healthy than you could be if you were you know thinner and fit but here so here's the question that I asked and somebody needs to do the math for me let's see if somebody did so I asked this if it's true and this is just hypothetical if it's true that 80% of the people dying from the corona virus are overweight and apparently that includes the young people so some of the young people were dying were not coincidentally maybe also overweight so that might be the the big variable that people are just not talking about so I asked this question if it's true that 80% of the people who die are overweight does that put the risk for a fit person closer to seasonal flu now that doesn't mean you change your policy I'm not saying that if I

[12:20]

your policy I'm not saying that if I knew the answer to that or not I would I would say oh let's do things differently not necessarily but it's a fair question isn't it and somebody needs to help me with the math because I think it's straightforward but I also think like I'm missing something dumb and I just I don't want to do math in public but look straight forward if 80% of them are one kind of person and you're not that so you know you're in the 20% there is am I doing this right a four to one chance you know that that you're not going to get it or you're not gonna die from it you might get it and if our current estimates are hovering in that one one-and-a-half percent rate which you know let's say comes down to one that would still be ten times what what the regular flu would be because the regular flu is 0.1 I can't believe we all know that these stats which is amazing so regular would be 0.1 if this

[13:20]

amazing so regular would be 0.1 if this gets down to let's say we test more and it comes down to one still ten times worse all right ten times worse but it's not ten times worse if you're now overweight you know and and that you know four to one doesn't doesn't take care of the ten to one but you start getting down into that neighborhood right so at some point that does affect policy so that's a question we don't know if that's true yet I wouldn't be surprised
CNN is oh my god they're being just horrible in their coverage I watched I watched one of their pundits you know they have two people who do nothing but write a nasty article about Trump for their website basically every day and then also also talk about it on the air and one of them I can't remember which there are there two of them that just do it every day and they seem to take take turns and one of them said you know

[14:23]

turns and one of them said you know Trump said this the other day and then he said this and I thought oh I guess I better listen to this so they they played the first thing he said and I go okay hold that in my mind and now he's gonna play why he said later that totally contradicts that and then they play it and I say that didn't contradict it I mean you would have to you would have to like think it was something else to contradict it now are you watching this no it wasn't Daniel Dale he was on the show today but it's whoever does their writing I'll actually Dale I think maybe has for CNN but he's nothing when I was thinking about or at least CNN runs his stuff I don't know if he writes for them or the New York Times but anyway here's the point it is so it's just mind-boggling because you watch it and they say watch what he says now now watch what he says and see how it's different and I listen to them and I go nope no I don't see how those are

[15:24]

nope no I don't see how those are different in the terms of conflicting there are different sentences maybe one adds something that another one doesn't but they're not even conflicting and then they just act like they are and then just keep talking about it and I and I think well you you seems you've skipped the step where you find out that they're actually different statements it's weird
here's they're just the typical of what's happening Maggie Haberman who you know allegedly is an employee at the New York Times but I don't know what she actually is a political operative Russian agent I'm not saying she's any of those things I'm just saying she's definitely not just a writer I don't know what else she is but I can't I feel like he can say with some confidence without any confirmation in this that she's more than a writer another there's somebody you know somebody behind the

[16:25]

somebody you know somebody behind the curtain if you know what I mean but her criticisms of the president tend to be the most humorous because there's just they're basically not even trying to hide what she's doing so here's the quote she gives today and she tweets about it quote from the president I want them to be appreciative the president says if governors who are criticizing the federal response and then of course some Greg price tweets that add some context here's why don't use the full quote you hack here's the full quote I want them to be appreciative we've done a great job and I'm not talking about me I'm talking about Mike Pence the task force I'm talking about FEMA the Army Corps of Engineers completely different context he's asking people who admit he's done a good job to be appreciative of the people doing the work and Maggie Haberman writes it like he was talking about what he wants credit for it I'm just completely different meaning but of course how many

[17:27]

different meaning but of course how many people are gonna read her tweet and then also see Gregg prices tweet where he he corrects her not many so it's a good strategy
Mike sort of it's continuing to show why he's the most valuable player in this certainly on the in the social media you know outside of the task force and say most valuable player in the public comes up with this bit of information as a number of sources did you know this and boy are you gonna be mad if you didn't know it because I was here's the fact northern Italy this is from Mike Tsarevich North northern Italy for over a decade has had unusually high death rates from flu what whoa what
send the kids away send the kids away turn down your sound yeah I'm giving you

[18:30]

turn down your sound yeah I'm giving you fair warning there will be cursing I don't like to overuse the cursing but every now and then there's an opportunity where there's just only one word that fits so you've been warned turn down your sound let me do this again with the proper reaction northern Italy for over a decade has had unusually high death rates from flu what the are you kidding me seriously I found this out today today and I had to get it from Mike CERN if it's on the internet and not the New York Times not the Washington Post are you kidding me now I assume it's true because he points to several studies and I don't see anybody you disagreeing you know maybe if I check later you'll see there's always somebody who disagrees with everything but for 10 years from 2004 to 2014 they

[19:34]

but for 10 years from 2004 to 2014 they looked at the influenza and Italy and it was way high compared to other people don't you think that would have mattered don't you think that mattered right to to how much you know fear and panic and hoarding and everything else that happened so I tell you if certain doesn't get some kind of like what's the Medal of Freedom or something yeah what is the highest honor you can give a civilian I'll say it right now based based on what he's done during the crisis to keep us informed and etc I'd say is the Medal of Freedom what is it whatever that top honor is I don't see it happening but that's my opinion Elon Musk was saying it would be great to combine blood donations because a lot of people are being asked for blood donations with a covent antibody test so somebody is just going into to give blood

[20:37]

just going into to give blood while they're there and we got their blood why not check it for anybody's because first of all that might tell you a little bit more about you know the the amount of infection we haven't found yet but also they could become the sources for the the serum antibody stuff that apparently the government's starting to get pretty serious about I saw that Eric Weinstein was making the same observation I was making on Twitter that the World Health Organization I told you about this there they're saying that masks are no good for you know there's no point in having a mask unless you have symptoms and the problem is literally every person who has a lick of common sense in the brain but no medical training but anybody who actually has a functioning brain sits here and here's sees the experts of the World Health Organization and every one of us hears

[21:37]

Organization and every one of us hears that that the masks probably won't were you in all cases and we all just say well that's not right it was sort of obviously not right if the whole point is stuff that's coming out of your mouth is infecting people and you don't know who has and who doesn't and therefore an uninfected looking person could be just as dangerous if that more than one who obviously has symptoms doesn't it kind of follow that the thing that stops things from projecting out of your mouth would make a little bit of difference so watching these large scientific healthcare respected organizations lie to us in a way that is so obvious I feel like they don't even respect us doesn't it feel like that doesn't it feel like the world that health organization just said and they're never gonna figure this out well it will just tell them that that a heavy

[22:37]

it will just tell them that that a heavy piece of cloth over your mouth doesn't make any difference to what's coming out of your mouth will tell them that oh my god they must think we're so stupid all right I knew that I knew this was gonna happen so Joe but somebody took a Joe Biden film and you know and they they changed it so it looks like he's putting on a make America great again hat and the funny thing is it really is good it's not quite deep fake quality but it's good speaking of Dee fake now there's a company that can make real moving deep fakes that look like they're talking and blinking and all that from one photograph and they showed it there just is mind-blowing they can take a photograph of even a painting and turn

[23:39]

photograph of even a painting and turn it into something that looks like a real person talking based on the photograph just one you don't even need a photograph of this side in the back it just figures it out it just figures out the rest and unless you turn to the side even if there's never been a picture like that pretty amazing so you know when I would I joke but not really that Joe Biden already could be a deep fake that's actually real no I don't think he's actually a deep fake it's just fun to say that maybe I can convince somebody that I mean it because it would be funny but he could be where we've reached that that point in civilization where I don't think I don't think he's a deep fake but you have to admit he could be I would look just as good so this is funny I was a I tweeted the other day about the toilet paper supply chain and I was I was estimating that probably from the first major shortage point

[24:40]

from the first major shortage point where shelves became empty probably we'd have to wait about a month to get it back if I got I had tweeted out with some puns today from georgia-pacific who apparently is a big American producer of toilet paper and they made some funny bathroom humor or puns but they were just you know tweeting back at me to tell me that they're on it and they're working 24 hours a day and it's quote what they say at this point we're on a roll it's a toilet paper company and they're on a roll with TP production and our operations haven't experienced material shortages that was a specific question I asked on Twitter didn't you want to know admit it didn't you want to know is there more toilet paper coming or are we getting it all processed in another country and maybe we can't get it I mean seriously didn't didn't you wonder well now we have the answer so this is the actual toilet paper company American

[25:41]

actual toilet paper company American company and no material shortages doesn't that make you feel better yeah this is just one of the things that Twitter can do for you like the government didn't tell me this right yeah where where was my task force saying oh and by the way I know this isn't the biggest medical problem but I know you're concerned you know there are lots of domestic toilet paper makers or they're running overnight they don't have any material shortages those shelves will be restocked and you know we don't know exactly but we think a couple weeks wouldn't you have liked to hear that from your government but you didn't you know I I had to tell you because I tweeted it and then they made bad puns back at me but they answered the question so Ian he'll Gert Jesus who has been doing some data visualization for the coronavirus stuff and also has been promoting something that he knows a lot about which is the use of

[26:42]

lot about which is the use of convalescent plasma to treat critically ill people and it looks like the the task force and the government have now committed - - pushing for that now the question asked is did Ian's work because I know it was you know I personally transmitted it up the line so I know it got to the right years did it make a difference we'll never know we'll never know because there's a there's a good likelihood that you know people have the same ideas in different places but I do think in terms of the public managing its government oh so convalescent Plaza plasma what that is somebody who's recovered they take their blood they process it and just take the good stuff now which includes the the antibodies that they got for fighting the virus then you can put them in people and then those people will have some antibodies to fight the virus so the government's actually pursuing that and I was just going to

[27:43]

pursuing that and I was just going to say that you never know if it made a difference you know that Ian gave this great visualization showing how many bodies you'd need in each state I think he's updating it so you can see the practicality of it because there's one thing to say hey you know we could take blood from these people and put it in these people but you kind of need to know how much blood there is and where it is so so Ian did that calculation of course you know everything in this world is a little bit approximate but he put on on a state basis how many people you need recovered to handle all the people who would need it I think we're already infected and and known so you got that
suited to all right we saw some revision of the British model and people said hey

[28:45]

of the British model and people said hey that British guy the Imperial model I guess it was called hey that British guy said millions of people were gonna die and now he's revised his estimates and I guess so I guess he was all wrong before right no no because before he said we could lose millions of people if we don't you know act aggressively to mitigate it and then he observed country is acting aggressively to mitigate and then he went back to his model said okay I'll put the mitigation in there because now that's not guessing you know we can actually see they're doing it and that of course you know way lower the numbers so people are criticizing this guy for being wrong when at least if you listen to the way he described it he was not proved wrong yet you know I mean I suppose he could be but at this point all he said is it would be this bad if we don't do anything but we did do something so we lowered his numbers is that is that a mistake I mean if that's

[29:47]

that is that a mistake I mean if that's the mistake who knows now let me make a general comment about the way we've been treating each other human beings that is on one hand I'm seeing a tremendous bipartisan working together like at the at the working level you know when somebody needs to get a hold of somebody you need something done I feel as I would knock out of Congress Congress is a is a train wreck but with just humans that people really use just sort of dropped the politics to get stuff done because it's emergency it's been very it's been very uplifting for you know those of us who are in the battle which is everybody basically it makes you feel good but here's the thing there's one thing that we're seeing more and more of that I I can't abide and it's we're in the middle of a battle bu Democrat bu independent or Republican

[30:51]

bu Democrat bu independent or Republican or not alight no matter who you are aren't you on the same team against the virus right now right you are right at the moment we're all fighting a common enemy so all we humans should be on the same side but I'm watching pundit after pundit decide that this would be the time the middle of the battle we're in the middle of the battle and pundits have decided that their contribution to the battle is to start bay and adding people who are on their team and I'm watching article after article where somebody's saying well what about person X who wrote this article and they didn't seem according to today's perspective and all we know today don't they look dumb in the past that's bayoneting your own team let me say it again we're not at the end of the battle at the end of the battle everybody gets to do an autopsy and an

[31:52]

everybody gets to do an autopsy and an audit and who did what right what can you learn and that's all good in the middle of the battle you don't bayonet your own wounded soldiers and that's what I'm watching happening I'm watching people who completely good faith had an opinion in the past that by the way a lot of other people held some people had other opinions somebody was going to be right but here's the thing if you think that we can look at it from today's perspective and first of all know even who was right and who was wrong because you can't we only know what we do we don't know how it worked out for the other plan that we didn't do so the first thing I'm going to say is if you already think that you can look in the past and know who was right and wrong you're idiot sorry you're you're an idiot you're unproductive you're borderline

[32:54]

you're unproductive you're borderline traitorous because you're your BAE and heading your own team in the middle of the battle you could wait and worse you don't know what the you're talking about because if you think you can tell who made a right decision about this and the fog of battle when advisors were advising different things and countries were lying to us and we had no information that was actionable we had suspicions we had fears we had experts but we had other experts we had people saying the economy and it's important to do you think is fair to say given all that fog that there was that based on today we're a little bit smarter but we still don't know what was the right decision you know the exact right day to do anything it's just completely illegitimate now normally I would just say well that's politics it's just politics you know the this side criticizes the side of this guy's but this isn't politics again we're in the middle of a battle you should reject

[33:58]

the middle of a battle you should reject and give no oxygen to everybody who's looking backwards in the middle of a battle later it's fine so you know I've been struggling with this myself because as you know as I've remind you often I believe I was the first person who said the words close the airport you know close the flights from China that was January 24th or something and and so I'm trying to resist the temptation to Pat myself on the back say well yeah look at all you people I I was there early but it's just not you it's just not legitimate because here's the thing there were people saying it was a big deal and people saying it wasn't nobody knew right somebody was going to be right because it was a binary thing who's either terrible or it wasn't and

[35:00]

who's either terrible or it wasn't and there were people on both sides the fact that some of those people turned out to be right based on our current understanding of things which could still change but that tells you nothing nothing somebody was gonna be right no matter what what were all the smart people on the same side no we're all the well-informed people on the same side from the start no we're all the experts on the same side I don't think so I mean except that you know I think everybody's alarm started smallish and grew so in that sense the experts were aligned because they got more more alarmed no matter where they started as they went but here's the thing if you wanted to criticize me all you'd have to do is say you know could've been sooner would that be true yeah yeah could have been sooner so if anybody says to me yeah yeah stop bragging Scott youyou

[36:01]

yeah yeah stop bragging Scott youyou said the words before anybody said those words except maybe Jack the Sabich who was talking about closing closing borders before I did but I can't take credit for that because it is objectively true I could have said it sooner and it's also objectively true that everything we do right and everything we have done right should have been done sooner so if that's the quality of criticism you're getting these are idiots these are people who don't understand how the real world works there are people who have probably never made any kind of executive decision in which there are lots of unknowns let me tell you what is right and wrong and the only the only thing you can know the only thing you can be sure of is that we had to act that's the only thing you should be sure of we had to act because not acting would be certainly the mistake but acting in any way there was a good gas

[37:03]

acting in any way there was a good gas and then subject to you know modification because remember we can always at any moment if keeping everything closed is the wrong decision
so when you're in a situation in which there is no good reliable information they're experts on both size and even the experts can't talk because the economists know the economy but they don't know medicine or viruses the doctors and experts know viruses but they don't know the economy so if those two people have different opinions what does your leaders supposed to do well thank goodness we might have the world's best person to be in this position a person who operates successfully and over decades on some kind of instinct which I believe is pattern recognition so here let me give you my theory on what instinct and gut gut you know gut instincts are I don't believe in magic

[38:05]

instincts are I don't believe in magic and I don't believe there's something called instinct or you know gut you know what did we call it you know somehow you just magically know without facts I don't think that's the thing here's what I think is thing pattern recognition and I don't know that we always know what patterns were seeing so if you take somebody like a Trump who has probably been involved in untold decisions in which he had to make the decision and he just couldn't tell he just couldn't tell who was lying to you people were disagreeing it was all unknowns how many times has Donald frickin Trump been in that exact situation not even counting being president you know think of all the things all the practice he's had at this at being president where you don't have enough you know all the Afghanistan stuff and basically everything you know North Korea it's all sort of instinct which I don't think is instinct I think it's people have been around enough that there's just some pattern recognition

[39:06]

there's just some pattern recognition that even maybe they can't put words to but you know how you know you can smell things before you see them I don't think that's magic or ESP I think you're seeing a pattern but you can't put words to it yet anyway if you had to pick one person in the United States that you would trust most to not let's say to properly put the experts opinions where they belong in the decision-making and to make a decision that is not based on fear of anything and really I think it's entirely fair to say that and I say this about any president by time somebody becomes president no matter how selfish they were before they got the job I think the office just changes you immediately now part of it is we're watching so carefully but there's no scenario in which the president does a bad job for the country and somehow it's

[40:07]

bad job for the country and somehow it's good for the president I mean that's not a thing the president has to serve the people to serve himself our system is designed that way so I I want a president who's not afraid of anything and I you know have you ever met a president well you haven't met him but trust me have you ever met a president who was more comfortable in scary situations to the point where other people are scared that he should be more scared it's because because the thing I would worry most about is that he would make a decision about which way to go with you know going back to work or whatever that the decision would be based on politics or that it would be based on any kind of a fear he had for himself or for the country that would be the worst influence to put on a decision now don't you trust the in this situation he's a strong personality he's not going to be judged by fear he will

[41:08]

not going to be judged by fear he will discount the experts but but not without not listening to him you will discount them because they might disagree so what are you gonna do and I think he's gonna make an executive decision but here's what I want to say at a time it won't be wrong no matter what it is and if that doesn't make sense that I haven't yet made my point that whatever Trump decides about the phase to go back to work it won't be wrong no matter what it is and here's here's just this is my philosophical take on it because there's nobody who knows in advance what the right answer is and if you don't know what the right answer is that means that by default the right answer is to do something that you can adjust if it's not right so what you should expect is that the president will do something we don't know the exact details but if he does something that

[42:08]

details but if he does something that has the quality that we can measure it and pull it back and adjust it and tweak it that's always the right decision now if if he lets people go back to work early and some viruses break out and the experts say I told you I told you this would happen he's still right because we couldn't know until we try it and we could still pull back now you know if we let it run too far and the viruses took over everywhere then that would clearly be a mistake but on day one it can't be a mistake because it's action where action is required in a field of unknowns and it's the action that will tell you if it's a good idea if you don't do it you're not really gonna know so he's gonna make I've said I said on Twitter this might be the hardest decision any executive or you know any president has made in this country since the Civil War never some people say well what about

[43:10]

never some people say well what about the atomic bomb no no I don't think so I think if I wrote to rank them because you know historians say World War two probably would have ended without the the bomb and cetera and you know just the bomb was less of a unknown meaning that the scientists at a Harry Truman if he dropped this bomb that city's gonna kind of disappear you know you didn't know that details but you knew that much so that's way more information than Trump has Trump doesn't have any kind of information that's like that drop a bomb city disappears don't drop a bomb you know war war drags on but we probably know where it goes so those are knowns or as close as you can get to a known in a war situation which is imperfect at best but Trump doesn't have any of that he is flying absolutely blind as the bat somebody eight to cause this whole thing all right I told you I take some questions so I better do that let's see

[44:12]

questions so I better do that let's see who's got some questions for me I think hey soos looks like he has a question hey soos disappeared okay I don't know if that's because people get shy when I actually picked them or there's a technical difficulty we do not know Hey community laughs let's see if you're their community laughs can you hear me do you have a question okay that would be a no I think the people would probably sign down awhile ago it takes somebody who just signed on because that's a better a better bet oh that one disappeared too what's going on here maybe it's the technology maybe it's not me let's try amber amber amber do you do you have a question for me amber well I

[45:17]

you have a question for me amber well I have friends that have been texting each other and saying you know who I think I already had the corona and I was just wondering if you had done any kind of like a little informal poll on your
Thanks yeah you know I I was planning to do that and I can't remember if I mentioned it that I didn't bother to look at the responses but let me give you the story that makes me laugh when I think about this when Elizabeth Warren did her DNA test and found out that she didn't have much of any Native American yeah everybody said oh how could you not know that you know surely your family must be so dumb that they didn't know that but I I had always been told and my family had that we also had a substantial part of Native American in us and I believe that my entire life until I took my 23andme test and found out none none and and when I

[46:19]

and found out none none and and when I said that in public a lot of people a lot of people messaged me and said exact same thing happened to me we'd been told all our lives that we were you know we were Native American and we got a zero it was just made up yeah so so to that to that analogy which is not trying to win an argument just as a fun story I like just about every single person I've talked to believe that I had some weird inexplicable illness in January it wasn't there wasn't like anything else and you know that's my story too I two weeks so weakened in pain I could barely walk up to my stairs and I thought I was you know I thought I was I didn't know what the hell was wrong I mean I thought maybe I need hospitalization or something but I didn't have a cough and but I did have lots of nasal congestion way like way more than the normal yeah and so I just wrote it off too you know some seasonal whatever and I thought

[47:20]

some seasonal whatever and I thought maybe some meds I'd taken had some some some effect but I'm so we've stalled enough cleverly to look at the comments look at them coming in my daughter did 2 and B 2 O and then also people agreeing that they thought they were Native American and they're not yes yeah let me just read it as a goodbye okay go ahead say you're coming with the Native American I think that there's there they kind of have rules about keeping their DNA separate you know they don't they don't let the DNA go out to these companies they keep it they keep it private and then if you think you have it
it they compare it to some other some other gene took like the term in that you know yeah but even if you are like part Native American then you have to be approved by the tribes to Elizabeth Warren taught us that I didn't know that

[48:21]

Warren taught us that I didn't know that that was actually interesting to learn that the tribes can set their own rules about whether you're in or not I don't know I feel about that but that's just the way it is alright thanks so much but looking keep watching the comments all the people just like we had I I'm not one to get sick but it took like three weeks and I had friends I had like five real close friends that all got sick for about three weeks all right come down so I don't know I think we're all yeah we have it but there isn't there is a test that is coming out they can tell if you have those antibodies in your and I think that's their next babies to try yes yes I mean that when we have that test and its widespread and its availability that's that's the end of it so all right I thinks like that question that was a good one I'm glad we did that

[49:22]

that was a good one I'm glad we did that if you saw the comments just basically everybody everybody believes there were a Native American where they were or if they had the coronavirus already if I had to put a guess on how many of us are all right it would be a pretty small pretty small number hello caller can you hear me do you have a question Renee Renee can you hear me hey what's your question I was actually agreeing that I thought that I had it about a month and a half ago I can hear you can you hear me yes I can hear you so yeah it looks like in the comments that's the most common thing in the world so so did you have chest tightness and a dry cough I had I had night nests and did you have a coughing wheezing yeah I mean I'm not a

[50:24]

coughing wheezing yeah I mean I'm not a doctor but you know the the list the list of things which could potentially be a sign of it seemed to keep growing you know I was watching it and I kept thinking wait if they keep adding things to this list sooner or later they're gonna give something that's me and I'm like okay don't have a dry cough all right good don't have aches don't have a fever I'm good I'm good and then they you know they get to a diarrhea and I'm like ah too much information but I was on some antibiotics they have that side effect but you so I think it was just the antibiotics but the the trouble is that we're all hypochondriacs yeah and if if you've gone if you can go through the next three weeks without having a single one of those telltale signs of coronavirus good luck because you know we're all gonna have an ache a fever a chill you know a call for you know wheezing something I think every one of us is gonna have that all right thanks for the call thank you alright let's see

[51:27]

for the call thank you alright let's see who else is on here Jason looks like he's full of questions Jason can you hear me Jason do you have a question for me Jason could he hear me Jason doesn't wash hello there you are do you have a question for me uh yeah so I am in the process of opening a restaurant and I was just wondering what's your take on hmm well so I first of all I'm sorry you know I own two restaurants and it owned as a past tense so you can figure out how well that one so I know the life and I know the risk and I know how much work it is and I genuinely you have my empathy that your your bad luck and the timing it's it's frickin tragic for for millions of people but but let me give you my best chance at a positive on this

[52:28]

you my best chance at a positive on this people seem to be really ready to change their life I mean a lot of people just really alter you know change their life a lot because the the new way of living I there so here's the positives I heard somebody say that a lot of restaurants will go out of business but then a lot of restaurants will start up basically taking over the assets of the failed business now I know that that's the thing because when my restaurant failed it was easier just to keep stuff in there and say alright you can you can take over the rent and so basically you know the half million that I put into it didn't need to be spent spend by the person who took it over after it didn't work for me anymore so you should have a whole bunch of people if they're smart they formed you know incorporated things or maybe the government will give them some protection against some of this stuff we'll see but probably a lot of people are gonna have temporary woes that will create opportunities for people to get cheap restaurants that

[53:29]

people to get cheap restaurants that they didn't deserve because they're not the ones who invested the money in it and built it out but so the first thing is you'll see people coming in and filling out the spaces second thing is I think people like me who did not lose you know my base income I mean it'll probably go down by a third and stay there forever because newspapers are just gonna go out of business after this but we're gonna spend a lot of money at restaurants and I think people are gonna do it for patriotic reasons for local reasons and I don't want to say there's you know pent-up spending but I think people will make conscious decision to help their fellow travelers especially in their local community because it feels right and what's wrong with going out to dinner now it might take a while before we say feel safe to do it I think you'll see a massive restructuring of you know more takeout and doordash stuff of course you might see well let me make it let me make a

[54:31]

see well let me make it let me make a specific suggestion given that cities and towns are now more flexible all the governments are being flexible because it's an emergency suppose you're a new restaurant owner and you say this look I know I can't pack my people in my little area but it's summer if I if I put some heaters out and I put a certain distance and I put them outdoors will you let me open up so I'll do takeout I'll do door - and I'll have you know a server with a face mask you know delivering food to tables and it'll be just you know drop off and leave no conversation and you know just a good nice space around you now the problem with that is that your local town will say oh no you know you can't put tables like outdoors just in front of your sidewalk because that's the sidewalk you you know you can't put them like you know moving it to the street but I'll bet you can I'll bet if you said to my town in Main Street there are

[55:32]

said to my town in Main Street there are a number of restaurants and businesses on Main Street all bat and actually I should I should suggest this I'll bet if you said to the chamber I don't know the Town Board of the city the Chamber of Commerce whoever you need to appeal to I'll bet if you said that here's the deal every one of these restaurants is dead unless you do this you let them use the entire street and you close it to traffic because in my town you could easily go around you know it wouldn't it wouldn't be any big deal to close the main restaurant straight and say now it's just a walking street everybody will have plenty of room cuz we're not it's not real crowded city or anything and in every restaurant can just use the street just put out your tables and keep it safe now would it work would people go to those restaurants I mean not now but when we get a little bit looser would they go the only point I'm trying to make is that you can't ever factor in the degree of ingenuity and you can't factor in the degree of flexibility that you have in an emergency and you can't factor in the

[56:34]

an emergency and you can't factor in the goodwill of the people who didn't lose a fortune during this who just want to support you so that's the best argument I could make there things will be alright in the long run but but man you you've got a it's just gonna be tough and I you have all my sympathy I'm sorry that happened to you well and thank you for for that and I was actually gonna ask if you had a recommendation for getting out in front of this and you already answered that so thanks very much yeah if if your local restaurant is somewhere where it's even possible to close the block just put it out there see what somebody says I mean they could always say yes they could always say no I mean nothing lost right all right thanks for the question thank you
yeah you know the the restaurant and the travel business I try not to think about it because it's just I mean that's where you know 90% of the economic pain is gonna be right there all right looks

[57:36]

gonna be right there all right looks like community laughs is trying again let's see if we can get you on here community laughs can you hear me do you have a question hello oops looks like it's percolating we lost our connection looks like it's a weak connection on the other side oh maybe nope let's try somebody else who has a better phone connection let's try
see pend second can you hear me do you have a question feels like forever in hell but it was about the older generation you know kind of like taking one for the team and stepping out and like saying like you know younger generation you guys go we'll take the pain and I me under than myself and I think we have a very different perspective on the older generation so like let's take for example prop 13 right older generation has their houses

[58:37]

right older generation has their houses younger generation is the one suffering paying all these things that the burden is being shifted to the younger generation they're just buying houses now you see the things like the boomer remover means right or the young kids like out party it's like we love grandma we love dad we love our odds but like I think there's some sense of we don't really care if this affects the Boomers because we feel like they're the ones that destroyed the planet they're the one so I'm wondering it's a kind of a like I have a very different perspective from you do you really think that like the boomers would be the ones to say like hey we've screwed over the younger generation all these ways but we're gonna take one for the team in this case I don't see it personally well first of all let me clarify in my opinion because I think you slightly misstated it so so so my opinion is that the older generation might in fact be willing to you know go out and take a risk but it's stupid because it's bad for all of us in other words if they start going out and

[59:37]

other words if they start going out and dying at high numbers I can't give my operation right you know so we're all screwed so I said the opposite of that you know that they should take the risk I said they should stay home because like we're all kind of you know well for a while yeah for a while the boomers need to are going to stay stay in when the younger get to go out I think that's guaranteed now to your point I actually appreciate the the honesty in that comment you know even when ideas are unpleasant the honesty of it somehow helps it I think you're absolutely and I'm seeing it everywhere that the the younger generation is saying explicitly well you know maybe if he hadn't you know toasted the planet with your climate change and stole all the money and had a nice life and left us basically no way to even rent an apartment and have a decent life maybe if you hadn't done all those things and started wars that I don't care about and

[1:00:38]

started wars that I don't care about and ruin the ruined the environment you know maybe if you had not massively effed up the entire planet I would have a little bit of sympathy for you now as a human being totally get it I totally get it and I would be actually amazed if that isn't a widespread thought but I'm not sure we you know it's not a productive one it's not a good one it's not a mature one it's it's one that you know you know every 25 year-old who had this thought and said well I got my reasons someday they'll be 55 and they're gonna look back and say you know based on my current perspective I might not have said or thought what I thought back then there was sort of a younger person's privileged dumb ideas if I can say it that way you know like guys for my generation yeah you know I think you're

[1:01:40]

generation yeah you know I think you're completely right but what how do you think your generation will feel when the experts who are mostly you know my generation and older say you know we're gonna let you guys go back you're lower risk but you know you might die but we're gonna let you go back how do you feel about that I think they're you know they're feeling guys we're gonna do this one way or the other oh I that's true yeah the the one thing that you can guarantee is that there's there's some kind of a natural timer on how long people will put up with us and III speculated it's somewhere around the 6-week point you know then that's that's where patients will just start to fall apart because this sort of thing where some people will always be cheaters and you know and want to beat the system but maybe that's in the five or ten percent of the country but as soon as that the five or ten becomes I'll just say twenty the whole system falls apart because if twenty percent are cheating the other eighty

[1:02:41]

percent are cheating the other eighty percent say well you know might as well so yeah I'd say six weeks is the longest we can go but if we go six weeks and then let's say the experts say you know based on what we know today we didn't know this before but what we know today two more weeks is just going to be a huge huge difference in the in the ultimate outcome I think people would listen to it I mean you'd have a chance so alright I appreciate your honesty and thanks for the call it's always so it's actually surprising when you hear somebody who will go in public and say something that's just completely honest like that I really enjoyed that call even though like the whole time it was it was triggering me like crazy because we you know what I wanted to say was some version of you

[1:03:43]

wanted to say was some version of you know I was born poor worked for everything I had can I keep it can I keep it none of those decisions were mine I didn't pollute anything and I heard Paul McCartney say this I know 20 years ago so somebody was interviewing him and saying you know Paul McCartney you know you've made whenever it was a billion dollars and there are poor people all over the world and you know they don't think that's very fair you've got a billion dollars what do you say to that and Paul McCartney looked at the interview and I'm paraphrasing it was a long time ago and said some version of this well I worked for it I didn't hurt anybody can I keep it I don't know that one that one answer to a that one question made me want to me to Paul McCartney more than any living human being like I just wanted to stand in the same room with the guy who said that the do you feel that was that just me

[1:04:46]

the do you feel that was that just me there's just something so perfect about that answer that made you understand why the Beatles were so good because you know it wasn't just when he was writing songs that he was brilliant in that sort of special way like even in an interview with just a very simple answer it was kind of magical it was kind of brilliant this somebody says it's just me yeah well you know there's no musical act that everybody likes either but I always liked that all right be good to your people who you think made a mistake in the past you can't tell if somebody acted that was right and bigger tear each other things are gonna get better pretty soon oh by the way did you see that the death rate in New York City went down a little bit who predicted that would happen this week I did that only went down like two people so basically flattened but didn't go up while the infection rate was up just as

[1:05:46]

while the infection rate was up just as I predicted things are headed in the right direction you'll all be fine eventually I'll talk to you in the morning