Episode 875 Scott Adams: Get in Here for the Sip. It’s a Good One Today!

Date: 2020-03-27 | Duration: 1:03:16

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Content: Who’s side is the WHO on, are they pro-virus? Boris Johnson has coronavirus #TrumpPills raw materials and Venezuela’s Maduro Robert Barnes asks, where are the hospitals that are over-capacity? Rep Thomas Massie, sole holdout against actual vote

If you would like my channel to have a wider audience and higher production quality, please donate via my startup (Whenhub.com) at this link: https://interface.my/ScottAdamsSays

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## Transcript

[0:09]

[Music] hey everybody come on him grab a chair get a beverage some of you are exercising right now good for you everybody who is exercising right now when you listen to my voice you're doing exactly the right thing we need you healthy they don't think get your immune system up do your part all right many of you are here already and so hey you think so bar and so it's time for this Idol taenia sip and all you need is a cover of margaret glass of tanker challenger stein the canteen jug reflect a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee enjoy be down for the unparalleled pleasure that don't be mean the end of the day the thing the thing that makes everything including the pandemic better it's called the simultaneous separate it happens now so let's talk about all the

[1:14]

happens now so let's talk about all the things we'll talk about all the things starting with so I don't want to get ahead of myself because you know I I tend toward the optimistic scale of things so I'm going to put a little bit of a caveat on this which is kind of wait and see what happens today but as you know I had been predicting that this week would be the week that we saw the death rate not the infection rate but the death rate in New York City flattened out so and the prediction was based on the fact that they got a big supply of the the Trump pills so the Trump pills are the hydroxychloroquine combined with the as a through Meissen and maybe sync depending and they got that big shipment apparently they were starting to give it to people on Monday and I said that in the next 48 hours or so you should see the death curve start to

[2:16]

you should see the death curve start to flatten at the same time and this was the key to the prediction that you would see the number of infections sore now part of that is because of better testing right but the other part the bigger part probably is that it's just an infection so of course there's more yeah we saw that so yesterday the death weight was around a hundred ish but the day before the death rate was also about a hundred ish now keep in mind that you know the day that you start administering the drug you still have a whole bunch of people who should have had it earlier so a theory the first thing you should see is a flattening because you have you know I don't know any I don't know any kind way to finish this sentence so just you know just assume then I don't have bad intentions here but you have to kind of work through the backlog there's just no nice way to say it the backlog of people who aren't gonna make it and for some of them the the medicines even if they work

[3:18]

them the the medicines even if they work could be too late especially for the elderly and the underlying conditions so what hours it would expect is a few days of flattening of the death rate not the infection rate that's still going way up but if the meds work to keep you alive and we have enough to give it to you early maybe upon your first visit with symptoms instead of you know waiting until it's too late I think just to stay with the prediction again everything depends on you know either the Hydra hydroxychloroquine or some combination it could be another med but everything depends on some medicine and working and they're doing a few probably doing enough testing there that they're getting a sense for that so don't want to get ahead of myself but I did call this days in advance right and remember I always tell you look for the people who make public predictions and then tell you later if they got it right or wrong I will also tell you what I get stuff wrong and I know you'll remind me

[4:18]

stuff wrong and I know you'll remind me if I if I forget but this one was right on this this prediction was spot I said this would be the week your flattened and it did now that doesn't mean it's because of that so you still have to weigh that's why I don't want to get ahead of myself with any optimism but it is what I would accept in the best-case scenario which is that we have some therapeutics which really make a difference that's the best case scenario it would look exactly like this but it doesn't mean it is that the World Health Organization I'm trying to figure out whose side they're on for a while because they were they're human beings I said to myself well it's humans against virus obviously the humans are on my side doesn't matter what country you on what party what what what gender or the ethnicity at the moment we're kind of all on the same team against the virus

[5:19]

all on the same team against the virus but then I see you know the but who is also saying that face masks were not that important at one point and and there's a new tweet that says this this is from w-h-o who PR oh I don't know what the PRM stands for and it's a little public service announcement looking thing and it says if you do not have any respiratory symptoms such as a fever cough or runny nose you do not need to wear a medical mask when used alone masks can give you a false sense of protection and can even be a source of infection when not used correctly to which I say have we not been hearing that asymptomatic shedding might be a big problem how do people who are not showing symptoms yet how do they transition from not showing any symptoms

[6:19]

transition from not showing any symptoms to showing symptoms does it ever pass through a moment or two of coughing before you put your mask on in other words how do a symptomatic people even theoretically transmit the virus unless it's coming out of their mouth is a coming out of their eyeball sockets is that how a symptomatic people spread it is it on their hands but somehow it got to their hands without coming from their mouth or their nose is that what the World Health Organization is talking does does the asymptomatic spreading command of your elbows I'm not a doctor but if I had to guess asymptomatic spreading might come out of your ass a little bit but probably it's coming out of your mouth and your nose at the very least the people there some people will

[7:20]

least the people there some people will just always be asymptomatic but if they're spreading where's it coming from you don't want to put a mask on those people now some people pointed out that countries who went mask crazy in other words they they just all wore masks such as Japan and South Korea also experienced a flattening of the curve far faster than anyone else now that's anecdotal because there's lots of other things that are different in any comparing any to two countries but you'd at least have to raise the question since we know these mess stop people with symptoms why wouldn't it stop people who are asymptomatic but somehow they're shedding or they're transitioning from asymptomatic to symptomatic don't you want them to be wearing a mask during the transition so I don't think the World Health Organization is actually on our side I think the I think the virus bought them off somehow the virus managed to use cryptocurrency and and and bribe this

[8:21]

cryptocurrency and and and bribe this organization that's all I can that's all I can think of all right so people are not good at thinking are are having a real tough time with this crisis oh I say people we're not good at thinking I'm talking about specifically to loser think errors one is the thought that friction doesn't matter then it doesn't matter if you put some friction on something if it doesn't stop it completely well why do it and so I used this thought experiment which some people reading it in you know incorrectly believed was an analogy but it's a thought experiment you can see it as an analogy but it's better as a thought experiment it goes like this if if all Americans were forced to go into a hot shooting war where they're actually bullets and let's say there's no such thing as the military we're just all the citizens are going to be in a shooting war and the government said all

[9:23]

shooting war and the government said all right since every single one of you are going to be in a war zone with actual bullets flying around we're gonna issue you bulletproof vests and helmets I think what we learned from the crisis is that 25 percent of the public would say no thank you I know I'm going into a war zone with bullets flying everywhere but I don't need your bulletproof vest and I don't need your helmet because duh somebody could just she'll be in the neck so what's the point you know why would I need a bulletproof vest and the helmet in a war zone if somebody could just shoot me in the vest da da so now if you're if you're saying Scott Scott that's an analogy to wearing masks and and and doing the smart things during a pandemic to which I say you could think of it as an analogy but it doesn't have to be I just say it's a thought experiment for you to understand human

[10:27]

experiment for you to understand human beings 25% of human beings don't understand that friction matters that reducing your risk even makes a difference so that's the point it's a point about people it's not a point about mass or no masks but obviously if masks can reduce your risk even a little bit in a pandemic even just a little bit of course you should be wearing them it's the only thing it did as as Brian Machiavelli on Twitter pointed out this morning if the only thing it did was keep you from touching your mouth during the day a few times it's still worth it if you have the masks now I think the real question might be availability of masks seems like it seems like the one thing we could fix you know maybe not n95 masks but don't you think you could get you know the 75%

[11:27]

you think you could get you know the 75% effectiveness you know just fairly good job masks for the public fairly quickly in a few weeks a lot of people are making them so I think we'll see a big difference where we'll get masks in addition to the virus crisis itself we're having a major learning crisis I don't know if you're aware of it because it kind of flies under the radar but some my nose itches like crazy when I'm on camera now and it's it's literally just an itch it's it's psychosomatic and I know it is like I know it's psychosomatic because it the moment that camera turns off this stops but right now it's just like crazy it's crazy so the irony waves are coming hard now some examples Mexico is paying for the wall you know in the virtual sense that there they just move their military up to guard the border so Americans can't get in the I don't even have to say anything about that you know this is

[12:27]

say anything about that you know this is just on my list of the irony crisis it was announced day that Boris Johnson tested positive for a corona virus after quite publicly bragging that you went in shook hands with corona virus victims in the hospital and he wasn't afraid about it at all and now he has a corona virus there's some Instagram influencer type I don't know how big she was but it made a story and in which she was bragging that she was not going to do social distancing and she pet tested positive for the corona virus in the irony crisis further we have some news that the southern part of the United States is unseasonable warm sort of our record heat for this time of year that's right the only thing that might save us from the coronavirus and

[13:27]

might save us from the coronavirus and I'm not even joking this is this is a straight statement global warming might save us because remember with the corona virus it's not about finding the switch where you turn it off it's about a whole bunch of different things that take a little bit of the edge off it and shrink it and shrink and shrink it until the the replication rate you know the the R factor is below one so if one person gives it to two people you've got a pandemic but if one person only on average gives it to you no point eight of a person well then that's the beginning of the end of the the pandemics remember we're just doing a whole bunch of little things to try to shrink that under one that's the game it's not to get it to zero and I probably had some point I was gonna make but I forgot what it was all right so I think it was yesterday time is really

[14:28]

think it was yesterday time is really compressed are you having this experience that your experience of time passing is just all all weird now good I don't even know what day of the week it is half the time but I think it was yesterday when I tweeted that the press needs to tell us today that was when I tweeted it who makes this hydroxychloroquine drug the Trump pills and where did the raw materials come from and what's the situation you know do we have enough of it if somebody making it is it an American source there's anything stopping it so those are the questions I asked I'd have to say I don't have the answers but I have some information that we'll start filling in some context there number one the source the base source for these chloroquine and quinine drugs and malaria drugs and I I don't know about hydroxychloroquine but I think it might be derived also from a certain tree bark it's the Cinch o cinchona tree and it

[15:31]

it's the Cinch o cinchona tree and it is grown primarily in the Andes mountain range the stretches from on the west coast of South America all the way from let's say start from the bottom and the mountain range goes all it's a tropical forest basically it mountains in tropical forests all the way up to Oh Venezuela yeah according to my map Venezuela unconfirmed but I'm just looking at the map and overlaying the country of Venezuela with the the length of the tropical forest that has the base source for this drug it's not the only base source I'll talk about that but is that a coincidence is it a coincidence so we just put a price on medoras had you know the United States just had twenty five million dollars to basically bring him in that's usually what we do

[16:31]

bring him in that's usually what we do before we kill a leader of another country if we're being honest by the time we put a 25 million dollar bounty on him and I think he's being accused of drug trafficking by time we do that we've decided to kill him now we don't know when we don't know how we don't know what that looks like but the decision to kill him has been made now I pray as the president and his advisors for making this decision exactly when they did it's a free punch it's a free punch because we you know under normal conditions it would be pretty risky proposition to take out the leader of another country even you no matter the conditions it's it's a super risky play but today is it if you heard today that Medora got taken out and let's say America was behind it or even suspected to be behind it if you heard that news today how much would you care you

[17:34]

today how much would you care you wouldn't write it actually wouldn't even make it to your your bottom level of stuff here caring about this week under any normal week if everything was going fine it would of course be the biggest story it would you might rip apart the fabric of America really questioning our values you know is this a strategy what's this going to do what are the unintended consequences of taking on a leader of another country you know that opens a can of worms it would be the biggest story in the world except this week this week we could just go and kill him and it would be a B story somewhere down within the column and by the time we got through the crisis literally nobody would care so whoever in the administration decided that this was the week to basically tell the world we're going to kill the leader of another country because that's what we did it's really good timing it's like it approaches genius-level strategy timing I mean it couldn't be

[18:36]

strategy timing I mean it couldn't be better than this if that's the outcome we wanted oh my god it's just it's just breathtakingly perfect that doesn't mean it'll happen that doesn't mean it'll happen soon etc but good strategy but here's the thing what does it mean that Venezuela is in part of the zone that might be at least part of the source that the entire world probably wants more of these tree bark and I need a fact check on that because I'm I'm definitely into speculative territory here so don't take anything I'm taking too seriously until you get some fact checks but if and as Wella is also a source for this tree bark and we know that the price of oil collapsed which is Venezuela's you know lifeblood what would the what would the let's say bad actor head of Venezuela do if suddenly by this accident of the crisis they happen to be sitting on a

[19:37]

crisis they happen to be sitting on a whole bunch of this tree bark that everyone in the world would pay any amount of money to get now I don't know if that's true again depends if there are other ways to make it which I'll talk about the minute depends if there's really a shortage I don't know if there is maybe it's not a raw material shortage but if Medora is even accused of hoarding that tree bark or you know jacking up the price or selling it to people we don't like you know whatever if he's even slightly implicated and of course he has been implicated in drug dealing but we don't know if the drug is it's just a free punch I'm sorry if you hear that Medora was doing something that might make the the crisis worse it's just a free punch you know he go this weekend you wouldn't care a bit all right I'm not recommending it I'm just saying the timing is perfect smarter people have to decide what's what's right here's the other way that

[20:40]

what's right here's the other way that you can apparently synthesize this hydrochloride roxie chloroquine the Trump pills apparently coal tar coal tar and somebody else said carbon you know oil I don't know if that's true but somebody said coal tar could be the base for synthesizing it now my limited understanding is that you can yeah somebody's saying synthetic so the other thing you can do is make you synthetically my understanding is that the only reason you wouldn't make it synthetically is that it's more expensive to do it that way than to just strip some bark and you know do it the fast way but at the moment and during a crisis of course economics get turned upside down all the matters is that we get it it doesn't matter that it's expensive because remember it's really inexpensive it's like $20 for a dose if you tripled it most people are still going to pay it and be happy about it so

[21:41]

going to pay it and be happy about it so we can get the expensive stuff so well I don't have visibility on is how quickly our whoever is making this american companies or coordinating with offshore companies that are working you know for the american companies i don't know but we have complete complete lack of knowledge the public does about what that pipeline looks like just think about that think about the fact that we're in a worldwide pandemic and the news business can't tell you if one of the most promising things that we have in our arsenal this drug if we have enough of it is there a risk we won't have enough of it how fast are they cranking up is there any shortage does it you know do we have a raw supply problem are we are we get up to synthesize that much these are pretty basic questions now we don't know that need to know every detail but wouldn't you like to know is there

[22:42]

wouldn't you like to know is there enough and the entire worldwide reporting structure every country every every political leaning every one of them has given you no information none no information on the most what could be the most important question of all this which is is there a med that works do we have enough of it and if we don't what are we doing about it really if we don't have visibility on that or or I would settle for knowing that the news organizations are trying as hard as I can to get that information but it's hard alright if that's the case that I'd say all right well they're working on it's just hard I'll wait a little longer but at this point can't you determine that the there is no such thing as a news business in in the in the sense that they'll go out and find stuff that you couldn't find out your own at the moment the news business is just pointing at camera and our politicians and listen listening to them mostly lie

[23:42]

and listen listening to them mostly lie to us right somebody said panicking old man I don't know if that was about me but I'm gonna block you anyway
somebody says Breitbart has it I'll go look for that so Breitbart has been the I think shining star of the entire episode you know the crisis so far that I think they've had the best reporting you know your mileage might differ but I feel like Breitbart has had the best reporting so far
so Jack Dorsey and of Twitter tweeted at the government that maybe we should be looking at direct cash payments using the cash app this is a you know one of Jack Dorsey's products it's a it's an app that lets you sell you know move cryptocurrency around now that might be

[24:42]

cryptocurrency around now that might be a good idea well I'll go further than that we should definitely be looking into it because there has to be some limitations to how easy it is to get cheques to everybody and then you've got tons of people who don't have checking accounts what do you do with the people you send a check to and they don't have checking accounts well I guess I can take you to a bank and try to get a cashed maybe that'll work but it would certainly be cleaner and faster just to load up you know load up people's accounts now the hard part would be to know you didn't double count because you're still gonna have to mail out some checks you know did you give somebody some cash that should have been a check so there might be some difficulties in that but that's solidly in the category of things they should have been they should be looked at I don't think our government has the capability to analyze that it's certainly not in the context of a crisis so I think the government's could act conservatively and that's probably not going to be on their short

[25:43]

probably not going to be on their short list of things they can deal with deal with in an emergency it takes probably takes a little more considered thought but I also haven't heard Jack's explanation of it so if I hear more about that I will pass it along I would like to speak you on the same topic can you imagine being in this situation without Twitter I mean think about that think about how much information you got from Twitter think about how many lies from the world health organization from your own government were you were first notified on on Twitter how many things were just ridiculously bad advice that you wouldn't have known it was bad advice until you saw it on Twitter if you ask me having this crisis with them Twitter would be a disaster I mean it's not it's already a disaster but it would be you know magnified much worse Twitter probably in social media and the

[26:44]

Twitter probably in social media and the news business is probably getting people pretty panicky and you'd have to say that's a you know that's a cost that you wish you didn't have but I'll say it as many times as I have to say it because everybody has a different panic level you know we're all very different about that what is it that makes you panic is different than what makes me panic you have to panic 10% of the people to near death to get the other 90% to do what they need to do to save the people who are panicked to death from actually dying so if anybody has a better way to get the entire country to move in a productive way then scaring the out of 10% of us I've never heard of it never heard of it so if you're complaining the social media in the news is making people panic it's a factual statement they are doing exactly that and they're probably ahead of the problem meaning that the problems are

[27:44]

problem meaning that the problems are talking about our future of future assumed problems they're not even talking about what's happening at the moment as much and then when they do is anecdotal and it makes you thinks things are worse than they are but you know Twitter as a tool to protect the world against some types of risks I think is proven I think Twitter has proven itself to be essentially the the emergency brain of the universe well maybe not the universe but at least our galaxy and what I mean by that is during good times we we aggregate not great during good times we separate into individual needs you know I'm just fighting for what I want in my capitalist world you're fighting for what you want and your your capitalist world and you know we got winners and losers but overall it works but in an emergency we immediately sort of
of group together and spontaneously formed

[28:47]

group together and spontaneously formed a a global brain now I think that much of that will dissipate as things improve because when the things are good you can just you know retreat from the global brain into your individual brain trying to maximize your life and your family and that system works well if we're all just pursuing our individual needs during good times but without Twitter we could not have formed a global brain one that is far more powerful than all of the the sum of the parts it's keeping a saying that's telling us what to think about it it's identifying the leaders is showing us where resources are it's connecting people it's you know if there's some kind of award for the greatest asset you know maybe maybe it goes to ventilators and 95 maths and doctors and stuff but Twitter's in the top five the Henry Ford Health Center

[29:48]

top five the Henry Ford Health Center put out some guidelines about how to handle if you have too many people who are in who are in a near-death situation how do you handle that now most of the advice was just straight up you know we got to make some choices and unfortunately some will die so they it's just basic triage medical ethical medical triage but then they stuck this sentence in there with all the good medical advice that was pretty standard even though it's scary it says this removing ventilator will not be based on race gender health insurance status sexual orientation employment or immigration status ok did that need to be said because I hope that didn't need to be said well we did did Henry Ford Health Center imagine that they have a doctor or a nurse who would be standing in the room and

[30:49]

who would be standing in the room and say you know I don't think this elbonian is worth much I think I'll take this take this off and give it to a Nigerian or a or a Norwegian is that happening is somebody gonna say you know this person of the ventilator I've checked their their citizenship and gotta let you go it looks like you're a Mexican citizen was that gonna happen really did they need to tell anybody this I I certainly agree with it but the the most shocking scene thing I've seen so far is the idea that somebody thought their employees needed to be told that did they I don't know next topic we're all alarmed that 3.2 eight million people filed for unemployment is that an alarming number you've been told by God my god three point two eight million people filed for

[31:49]

point two eight million people filed for unemployment my god is that a lot let's do some math let's say each of the three point two eight million people who filed for unemployment now this is on top of regular unemployment let's say you gave them all $2,000 per week you know tax free they don't have to pay any taxes not just two thousand week that's a thousand month which would be way above the average income especially tax free way above the average income in this country so this is just a thought experiment not a suggestion so if you gave all three point two eight million two thousand dollars per week you know for eight thousand a month what would it cost well it would cost about I'm gonna round grossly around these numbers but it about seven billion dollars per week or $28 $28 per month and let's say we ran this for three months eighty four

[32:49]

ran this for three months eighty four billion dollars so four eighty four billion dollars out of a two trillion dollar package just eighty four billion a big number but it seems like a small number today right 484 billion you could pay every one of those unemployed people more money than most of them have ever made in that three months and you wouldn't even notice it you know if the only thing we had going on today was uh we suddenly need eighty four billion dollars that we didn't know we needed well we wouldn't like it but we barely notice it right but it's more than that is it even 84 billion so let me delve into economics territory a little bit more deeply than I feel comfortable so let's put this in the form of a question if there's any if there are any economists out there who have superior

[33:49]

economists out there who have superior economic understanding than me that would be most most economists probably fact check me on this so here are the things I think are right about this proposed to trillion-dollar legislation I believe that they plan to pay for it by printing money as opposed to borrowing so that's the first fact check can you make sure that that's true that they're not going to borrow which would raise everybody's debt but rather they're going to print money which would raise inflation now the way that works is if we have the same amount of goods you know everybody who's selling stuff in the United States still has the same number of them but you add a bunch of dollars into the system then there will be more people with money compared to the same number of goods and that could lead to inflation because people will say hey you know I'll pay more for that because there's more money and it just feels like it's free money because of

[34:50]

feels like it's free money because of inflation so here's my point inflation is a gigantic you know civilization ending problem if it gets too high if it's low it's just an annoyance if it's zero it's free money now I'm exaggerating for effect but follow me on this if you're in a situation of a guaranteed recession which we are for the next three months is guaranteed there's no question there's are gonna be a recession just you know mathematically it's guaranteed who can raise their prices for normal goods I'm not talking about you know masks and medical equipment but who's gonna be able to raise their price for you know headphones for the next three months you know who is selling these little stands that you put your phone in can they raise their price and the next straight months of course not if anything they're gonna lower the prices to try to get rid of inventory so in a world which I don't

[35:51]

of inventory so in a world which I don't think we've ever seen this before this is just the weirdest situation in which inflation is zero or negative if the only problem of printing money is that it might hurt inflation inflation is zero or negative it's free money am I wrong or and here's the part that I can't I don't quite have that the background to be able to think through it and maybe you have to do you know complicated computer models maybe nobody knows so it could be that after you passed those three months you'll wish you hadn't done it you know once things get back to normal maybe there's still too much cash floating around is that is that what it becomes the problem but check me on this because I don't know if I may be talking crazy talk usually I could be talking crazy talk but just check me on that they're printing money during a time of really no risk of inflation shouldn't be that big of a problem right just check me on that all right so I'll just put that out

[36:53]

that all right so I'll just put that out there I would like to give some credit to one of my disagreeing critics on Twitter now I've often said to you that you know this is sort of the loser think idea here and the idea is that if people disagree with me usually it's because there's some identifiable piece of loser think involved that that there's just some gap in their understanding of the universe and I can identify it so oh the reason you're saying that is because have a background in economics or oh okay I get I get where you're coming from the reason you think that is because you don't have a background in psychology or how the human mind works that sort of thing but when I see somebody who does actually understand how things work and does not engage in looser think and they disagree with me I stop and say okay what am I doing wrong this time so there's one of these situations and

[37:54]

so there's one of these situations and I'm just gonna put it out there not as a right or wrong but just note it because it disagrees with me but it's rational this is the part that's bugging me right it goes like this and I don't know if you're watching but this is Robert Barnes attorney and I would say I know him
him but from Twitter you know there are people that you interact with so much on Twitter that you feel like you know them personally and you forget you you haven't been in the same room but Robert Barnes I know to be have watched him for years talking about Trump related stuff and he was almost always ahead of the curve he's on the right side and stuff he's rational he knows how to you know pull an argument apart when he disagrees with me I usually stop and saying what did I do this time so here's the disagreement I'm on the side that says that if we did nothing to aggressively address the pandemic that the death rate would be way higher than normal flu and

[38:56]

would be way higher than normal flu and you know crippling that if you just if you sort of didn't treat it seriously it wouldn't be like a seasonal flu it would be like a really big problem but I also think that we're doing a heroic job in the United States especially a heroic job of assembling our human ingenuity and resources and changing everything from the way we think to the way we act and doing it fairly quickly so my prediction is that we will also have a low death rate and I'm the I'm going to go uber optimist so I haven't seen other people's predictions but I'm going to make a prediction that the total us death count will standard 5000 which would be less than the common flu but only because we're working on this one so hard so I'm optimistic that the death rate even though the infection rate and the sickness rate will zoom that that will find a way to keep the death rate

[39:57]

will find a way to keep the death rate from climbing so that's where I'm at it could be right could be wrong because it's a prediction right yeah we don't know if I'm right we don't know if I'm wrong we just know it's a prediction and we know that I've agreed with the worst case you know doom predictors under the assumption that you don't do anything about it so I've agreed with the doom people if you don't do anything Robert Barnes and I I hope I am I can characterize his argument accurately because the parts that I understand I think I understand it are logical and it goes like this where are the hospitals that are over capacity because we should be seeing it already and and I thought and I responded to to him oh my god you know are you watching a different news that I am how could you not see just multiple reports of hospitals that are being slammed and you know bodies are being put in you know refrigerated trucks and

[41:00]

put in you know refrigerated trucks and you know and nurses are panicked and then and supplies and their they're piling people in hallways and stuff so I'm hearing all these things and then damn Robert Barnes sort of I forget the exact exchange but he kind of challenged me to show my sources and at first I was just mad I was just mad because I thought to myself my god am I your Google you you can't see sources everywhere so I asked people you know I tweet it I said I'll just settle this I'll just tweet it put your put your you know reports in the comments of all the places that are already just already becoming you know like morgues and and you know deathly hell escapes and I thought well Robert Barnes is going to see all of these comments all the report the story is tweeted tweeted Adam showing that there are hospitals that are just being absolutely devastated

[42:02]

are just being absolutely devastated except that didn't happen what I thought would happen is all of these rock-solid reports of credible things that are bad instead there were a lot of reports that all had the same quality they're not even slightly credible or there's a special case or you can explain it by coincidence so for example our what does it mean that the 13 people died in one day in a major hospital in New York City well if it's part of a tapestry of other bad things and they're all confirmed then you'd say well it's meaningful it's part of the tapestry of all the other things that are similar in other hospitals and yeah clearly this is part of the picture but you got to ask yourself have 13 elderly people ever died in a major hospital and one day before maybe have have you ever had 13

[43:04]

before maybe have have you ever had 13 deaths or let me ask it another way do we know that this hospital was not a magnet hospital in other words and this is just speculative I'm just saying all the things we don't know I'm not saying what happened because I don't know I'm just saying all the things we don't know are a lot for example if you were in New York City and somebody was suspected of having this flu the covent would they go to whatever is the nearest hospital or would they rationally say let's take them to the best Hospital that still has capacity because they're they're the best ones for dealing with a specific problem could you imagine and this is a question not a statement could you imagine that the reason 13 people died in the same hospital on the same day is that the bad cases were specifically taken to the same place could you imagine that if this were seasonal flu everybody would just go to the closest hospital 13 of them might have died anyway but you wouldn't notice because they were distributed now I

[44:05]

because they were distributed now I don't know if anything like that happened I'm just saying that if I'm gonna take your here I'm being devil's advocate to my own argument I'm gonna take robber Barb's point of view and say does it hold up all right did it hold up against that piece of evidence and the answer is yes it held up not in the sense that I know what's going on there it held up in the sense that I don't know what's going on there so that's not confirmed to be evidence of anything it's just a thing that's not explained so point four Robert Barnes all right let's go on Robert barn I also said you know we've never seen hospitals being pushed as hard as they are that we're already I said we're already over capacity at hospitals so the question so the you know the debate is over right you don't have to wonder just look to a trabber Barnes responds with an article with source showing that in 2018 hospitals

[45:06]

source showing that in 2018 hospitals were building tents and emergency expanding just for the regular flu did you know that and now I say to myself okay so that does look a lot like this doesn't mean Robert Barnes is right doesn't mean my view of the world is wrong but it's a good point right if I'm gonna be honest that's a fair point so we can't tell by looking at it today because they're a little bit too much of the special cases going on and we also know that I don't know 99% of hospitals based on lots of anecdotal reports I got yesterday most hospitals don't yet have a crisis and they've cleared their schedules and got rid of their the unnecessary or the elective surgeries so most hospitals are just twiddling their thumbs and trying to make sure that they're ready in case something happens so but it's early right

[46:09]

so but it's early right and then also pointed out that China South Korea and Japan seemed to have bent their curves meaning that the curve is bendable all right so we know that we can bend the curve I don't know if we have good enough visibility about why some people say it's facemasks I think that's a good hypothesis might be the culture yeah maybe there's not as much kissing on the cheek in Japan because there isn't it could be that there's simply more compliance you know maybe Americans are just you could be that Americans are just gonna say screw the government I'm going outside anyway I'm gonna I'm gonna go to the concert anyway that would be a very American thing to do and not a good way whereas in Japan you know if we learned anything from the end of World War two it looks like the population in Japan is very you know leader friendly meaning when the leader tells them to do anything they seem to comply how much

[47:11]

anything they seem to comply how much difference does that make in South Korea China maybe the same thing and in China maybe we have questions about the actual data all right so here's the bottom line robber Barnes your your movie exists intact meaning that your your view of the world your filter on the world cannot at this point you know today with what we know that movie is still fine there's no debunking data and I will let me just say as clearly as possible I agree with you that your hypothesis that this is all overblown and wouldn't have been much more than the regular flu is still alive I still disagree with it completely and the reason I disagree with it completely is that the people who have been most right still say okay if we didn't do a lot to stop this we're still gonna be in trouble so I'm still I'm still biased toward the experts and

[48:12]

I'm still biased toward the experts and biased toward the people who predicted right so far but that doesn't mean Robert Barnes is wrong I think we should act as though he's wrong to get a better result he would disagree with that I think but so at the moment two movies still alive I think mine will be the winner but here's the fun part when it's all over if what happens in the end is not many people died we will argue forever if it were if it was because we did such a good job or it was because it was a mass hysteria and it was never that big a problem in the first place we will never know and that's where we're having for all right there's big news about representative Thomas Massie the Kentucky apparently he is the one holdout against a voice vote now I don't know too much about the rules of the house but this is what I think is right that the house can call

[49:12]

think is right that the house can call for an in a unanimous consent meaning to get to yes without an actual vote where he account everybody's vote now you would do that in the situation where you don't expect disagreement and you don't need to take the time to do the vote and you don't need to get on record about who is for it and against it so even the people who would want to vote against something if they know they're gonna lose sometimes for unity and also to hide their vote they might say well let's just agree as unanimous it looks like it only takes one person to to ruin that plan and that one person has emerged so a representative nací from Kentucky is concerned about the legislation having you know pork and unnecessary things and also also calculated on Twitter that would cost seventeen thousand dollars per person in debt now here's one of those small world

[50:13]

debt now here's one of those small world stories you know I keep telling you that my experience is just absolutely bizarre because that the entire size of the planet for just my personal experience it has just shrunk it feels like if somebody's in the news I can just talk to him you know somebody will be headline news today and I'll just say huh I think I'll send them a message and they'll get a message back from the person who is the most important person in the world and I think that that just happened did I just send a message to the most important person in the world got a I got a reply and you know 39 minutes that's happening massively all over the place it's not just me your your ability to connect to your government representatives is amazing right now I mean we'll never be able to we'll never be able to completely you know know what difference that made and how helps but or in maybe it won't last but at the moment you can really get a hold

[51:13]

at the moment you can really get a hold of people in a crazy way so to find out my story Twitter suggests people to follow and I happen to notice that representative Massey was suggested as somebody to follow probably because I was reading the hashtags about him and I looked over and I noticed that he follows me on Twitter so I thought well what happens if I follow him back I'll just send up a DM and give him my opinion see what happens so this morning I followed him on Twitter you know on wall I'm reading the headlines about him I send him a message they got back to me and I don't fifteen minutes in 15 minutes the most important person for this story in the country right now for the biggest the biggest factor in the world right now is this bill the person who's the most important person on it got back to me on Twitter in 20 minutes now you should be happy about that right

[52:15]

now you should be happy about that right that doesn't mean you agree with them disagree with them don't mean the government does everything right but man when your citizens can get to somebody in 20 minutes in the middle of a crisis and get a legitimate personal response we're doing something very very right and again credit to Jack Dorsey and the founders of Twitter for making this even possible so let me just tell you what I told them so I sent him a DM and I said this I said representative Massey the entire country agrees with you that the relief legislation is flawed I think that's fair right don't you think Republicans and Democrats all agree that this thing is flawed and I said but given the psychology of the country we need fast action on a odd plan far more than we need a principled stand so I don't disagree one bit with his disagreements I only weigh the priorities different that we need fast action for the psychology of the country as well as the the pocketbook of

[53:16]

country as well as the the pocketbook of the country even if it's not perfect and then I said the following my limited understanding is that we were printing money for this not borrowing so remember he did the calculation of seventeen thousand dollars per person we would owe so I said we're printing money not borrowing and when inflation is this low and the current downturn makes it impossible to raise prices on most goods that printed money is closer to free because it won't cause inflation it's the only time in the world that would ever be true I can't think of any other time you could print that much money and still be sure it wouldn't necessarily cause inflation in the short run Amy and so he responded back to me said he's been following me for a while and and apparently he watches these periscopes so representative masse if you are watching this a lot of respect for you for your opinion and a lot of respect for you for getting back to you know a

[54:16]

for you for getting back to you know a member of the Citizens Wetty who had a genuine concern so thank you for the thank you for that and he got back to me and he said he appreciated my perspective and thanked me for reaching out and that's all I would ask right you know nobody nobody's asking they're government officials to change the mind on the spot make a new decision you know nobody's gonna ask him to change his mind just because he got a DM but I know he heard me I I know he heard me and his response acknowledges that and I I can't say enough about how encouraging this is about human beings in who we are and how we're going to act in a crisis right so we got lots of bad examples but everyone's well you get a good example so credit to representative Massie I would like I would like to see you get past this in whatever way maintains your principles all right let's save the so

[55:18]

principles all right let's save the so it looks like the government is preparing some kind of a geographic based plan for taking people back to work I've got a big question about this it does and I would I'll say that this is short of an opinion because I still have a little gap in my thinking maybe you can fill it in it goes like this compare these two plans one plan is to say okay this county hasn't had much problems and yeah I know that people can drive in and out of the kind of County so they might have some problems if they open up but we're going to open it by geography and then you know play it by ear I suppose you could close them back up if you got a problem so that's the plan and it has the advantage of simplicity so it's got that but let's compare it to an alternative plan that I'm going to describe right now instead of making it a geographic decision could you not make it individual and could you

[56:18]

you not make it individual and could you not make a simple checklist which you ask people to adhere to knowing that not everybody will you know that's the nature of people not everybody is going to adhere to even a law much less a guideline but suppose the government said this we're gonna we're gonna test you for a genetic risk we can do it fairly quickly and if we find that you are a low genetic risk and I think we can determine that that's that's an unknown but highly highly likely that we could start testing people who had a bad outcome test people who had a good outcome and I think we'd find a reason in their genes we could do that fairly quickly we've got lots of resources to do that let's say that we find out what the correlation is but you've also let's say you've got a 23andme and you can just download your data bounce it against it and find out why your risk is I don't know if that'll work but there's

[57:19]

I don't know if that'll work but there's a good indication it might so that's just one idea so suppose you could say all right all right no matter what geography you're in if you've gone through this process of actually chest testing your DNA against you know the known risky DNA and you look low-risk maybe you could go back to work even if you're in New York City now again I'm speaking hypothetically somebody who knows these risks better we'd have to talk to it but I'm giving you a framework for a decision based on individuals the other thing is you could just say you you know the moment you have enough of this hydroxychloroquine so that the doctor can hand them out like M&Ms to anybody who has a who has a sniffle could we not sensei then if you have a subscription if you have if you have if you're in a place that has a good supply so let's say we know New York City has a good supply of this drug I don't but let's say we did know that we probably can know that you could say well if you're young and you have you

[58:22]

well if you're young and you have you have access to it you're in a place that isn't in shortage you could go back to work because the worst case is you get it you've got to you've got to keep yourself away from other people for a while suppose we say it also depends on your job there are some jobs that are physical separation all over the place by their nature if you're a truck driver and the only contact you have is on both ends of the you know the pickup and the drop-off how hard would it be to modify the pick off and drop off so that it's not a risk you know just people stay away or it's just one guy on a truck lift and when he's doing his work you you back off and stay away wouldn't there be lots of jobs where you would be willing to certify that you're not going to be within six feet of anybody no way and you'll just make sure you do it could that not be at least on a voluntary basis a criteria so here's the thing men maybe it could also be based on availability of gloves and masks

[59:23]

on availability of gloves and masks suppose you say I'm 25 years old I have an n95 mask it's two weeks from now you know we don't have them enough of them now but those sides two weeks from now I've got a mask I'm a certain age I'm healthy no underlying conditions that I know of and I've got a job where I'm not going to be within six feet of people can't I go back to work can't I so somebody's asking me to block them can do I don't know why but I'm sure you had a reason so these are just a sample of ways that we could decide if an individual is now would people who do not meet these criteria say well I need a paycheck so even though I don't quite meet these criteria I'm gonna go out there because lots of people are going to work and maybe nobody'll notice and what that happened yeah that would happen but remember you're not trying to

[1:00:25]

happen but remember you're not trying to get the infection down to zero that's not the goal I mean we'd love that but the immediate goal is to get the infection rate of spread below one you know one person gives it to fewer than one people fewer than one people is that even a sentence fewer than one person so I think that some amount of social pressure whistleblowing and maybe the police tapping you on the shoulder if it's obvious you're congregating and violating there may be enough social pressure and you know government tapping you on the back that could reduce the number of people who are just being stupid and violating the guidelines probably to a lower number I mean look look at what happened when they said close everything when the government's had just closed everything that's non-essential it worked right it didn't happen on day one but didn't it work there's I don't think there's a

[1:01:26]

work there's I don't think there's a restaurant that's open in an area where they're supposed to not be open so you can get compliance so I think that's a mistake if the only thing they do is by geography you should be geography but also individual risk I don't know that we have enough mass genetic tests you know home tests for easy tests so I don't know enough hydrochloric weaned so we may not have enough assets to judge on an individual basis yes that might be phased too but wouldn't you like to hear that a phase two is coming like you I'd like to hear dr. Burks say the best we can do in our current situation is there are some counties that can open your state will decide that would be cool for the first thing they tell us but I'd like to hear very very soon after that we don't know yet but what we're working on is some kind of a deal where if you if you meet this checklist you to

[1:02:26]

if you meet this checklist you to individually can go to work in some cases no matter where you are because New York City has to run also right so that's what I want to see for my government let's see let's see if it happens oh that's about as much as I want to do down ah and I will let's say just make sure I talked about everything I want to do hold on hold on hold on yeah I think I did that's it for now I'll try to come back at the same time in the p.m. for a simultaneous swaddle and a nice warm blanket everything's going in the right direction even if it doesn't look like it Americans are winning humans are winning and we will win so let's keep it up