Episode 863 Scott Adams: Let Me Tell You How We Beat the Virus and Get Back to Work Soon

Date: 2020-03-21 | Duration: 1:15:19

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Prediction: What to expect in next couple weeks Rachel Maddow’s despicable lie Expect the Boomers to step up Vitally important info for mental health of the country Joe Biden’s shadow-briefing plan

If you would like my channel to have a wider audience and higher production quality, please donate via my startup (Whenhub.com) at this link: https://interface.my/ScottAdamsSays

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## Transcript

[0:18]

boom that's a little dark in here I think I have maybe should turn off my light a little bit hold on don't go anywhere let's let you watch
Hey much better we're talking yeah this is a cheap operation but the quality is in the sipping sure it's low production quality bad sound terrible lighting sketchy video quality but we have something that the other live streams do not have you can watch MSNBC all night long and you won't get this you can

[1:20]

long and you won't get this you can watch CNN for decades and not get this it's called the simultaneous have but all you need is a cup of margaret glass a tanker challenger stein that came to you jagrafess a live any Chi and fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the dopamine end of the day the thing that makes everything including the frickin pandemic better go
mm-hmm yeah so one of the scariest things in the world there's something called the unknown the unknown can be really scary especially if your enemy is invisible you literally can't even see it so if you don't know where it's going and you can't see it well that's the scariest possibility in the world so I'm gonna fix that I'm going to call on my decades

[2:23]

fix that I'm going to call on my decades of business and life experience to tell you where this is all going are you ready so I'm gonna describe what the next several weeks look like and you get to see how close I am it looks like this so we've got this big fight if you will between the people who say it's it's way too extreme to close the economy you know we make this as short as possible send us back to work people are gonna die but it's better than crash the economy I would say that's an adult decision or an adult opinion whether you agree with it whether you disagree with it I do respect it because it's it demonstrates an understanding of the costs and understanding the benefits they're hard to measure so it could be wrong or it could be right because we don't know how big either of those sides are but it's an adult decision because it understands both the costs and the

[3:24]

it understands both the costs and the potential benefits so I always appreciate anybody who can see the whole field but that doesn't mean that tells us what to do and then there are the others who say close it down until this virus is really under control and we don't know how long that could take and you're hearing scary kind of numbers like you know weeks months and we say to ourselves quite reasonably oh how could we survive that long with a crashed economy so let me tell you what's actually going to happen and it won't be one of those two things Greg Gutfeld always says and I'm always nodding my head at home when he says it about trapped in the the prison of two ideas and we've we've sort of accidentally done that aren't you thinking to yourself that there are two conditions probably right you've been sort of pushed into two camps and for getting all the middle ground so the two camps

[4:25]

all the middle ground so the two camps are open the economy or closed the economy and you're thinking well those are our two options they are not nor are either them what's going to happen so let me tell you what's going to happen this is based entirely on just experience I ain't to say common sense because I don't like the term because yes good good judgment is not very common but I'm going to describe it and then the challenge is to you to tell me why I'm wrong because I think you're gonna watch it materialize right in front of you this way all right so here are the variables and then I'll tell you why it's why you can fairly easily predict where this is going and and fairly quickly number one I'm gonna I'm gonna get out in front of the medical professionals if you want to if you want to know what's true listen to the medical professionals I'm not one of them so if I give you you know more

[5:26]

of them so if I give you you know more optimism about a medical situation listen to the professionals for actual accurate information but also be aware that the medical professionals are managing not just your health but availability of supply and they're managing your mental state your anxiousness they're managing crowd psychology they're managing a lot of variables so if they give you a straight fact hmm in normal times I'd say to myself well comes from the experts I'm gonna I'm gonna take that straight fact as just being a straight fact but I don't think you can do that today now I want to be very careful in what I'm saying I believe our medical professionals the people in charge do have the right intentions they have the most information they're the most qualified everything they're doing is for the greater good but we on this periscope can if we choose to have a deeper insight into

[6:28]

choose to have a deeper insight into what's happening because I think we're smart enough and then frankly there are enough of us to make a difference anyway but I think we're smart enough to be able to see what's really going on so let me tell you what I think is really going on there are now my understanding this you know subject to fact-checking is that there are now three studies showing that the chloroquine in particular and in the stronger version hydroxyl or chlorine or whatever it is and in combination with what erythromycin whatever and you know names of jugs that I can't pronounce by the way are you impressed the president drunk Trump can pronounce those drugs perfectly I was watching for that what it when he talks and he kind of perfectly pronounces them and then you watch the news reporters try to pronounce them and it gets funny because some can and some can't but I

[7:29]

because some can and some can't but I know I want to see Joe Biden try to pronounce the names of these drugs it's a serious completely seriously because it is one of those tells for mental acuity and I'm wondering if I've lost it myself because I have trouble with those words but the president doesn't seem to I know I mean it's the smallest little data point in the world and it made me wonder how much he practiced didn't you when you saw him effortlessly saying those big medical words did you say to yourself how long did he practice or is he just sort of good at it I don't know the answer that he might just be good at it but I would I would imagine he practiced a little bit I certainly did it did help me a bit so here's where things are going and so my first statement of fact is that I'm more optimistic than than let's say foutch II and the CDC on the usefulness of these

[8:29]

and the CDC on the usefulness of these drugs such as chloroquine and I'll just use that as my placeholder for those other drugs that are also useful and I guess they're taken in combination mostly I think that the reason that the doctors are downplaying it is to keep you home because that's good right at the moment keeping you home is a big deal and because they don't have a supply yet now I'm sure that they somebody says stop rambling old man well we can we can save you you're gone I think that the professionals are trying to strike a balance between panicking and people you know murdering people to get a supply of the drug and being optimistic here is my belief right it's my belief this is not what the medical professionals are saying my belief is that they're striking a balance and that they know this stuff is better than better than they're letting on because

[9:32]

better than they're letting on because all of the evidence so far is it's it's a pretty good kill shot if you get it early enough and you're not at death's door and even if you're a death's door some of these are looking pretty strong alright so here's what's going to happen we are going to learn that we can take the death rate for normal healthy let's say people under 60 people with no underlying conditions I believe that when is in a week we will be able to say with a fair degree of confidence that if you can get them the chloroquine and drugs when symptoms present and you're under sixty and there's nothing else special going on with you health-wise I believe we're going to drive that very close to zero and we'll probably know that in a week you know based on the other places in the world doing similar things etc so in a week let's say we know that if you're healthy and under sixty you could get sick you'll probably get sick half of people will get sick maybe more but your

[10:34]

people will get sick maybe more but your odds of dying approach zero then you can start letting people go back to work but not everybody so here's my prediction we will we will be turning the economy back on but not like a light switch it's going to be like a dimmer the first people will get to go back to work are the young who lives somewhere where the health care system is not overloaded that's important to young health care system is not overloaded and not predicted to be overloaded right away and they have a sufficient amount of the chloroquine and related drugs and here's the next thing I think is going to happen I asked this question and I'll look for the the answers on Twitter but I asked the medical experts this question how practical is it to administer the chloroquine and and the other beds for people who have a non-critical infection or even if they're just presenting symptoms but you

[11:35]

they're just presenting symptoms but you don't know if it's the regular flu or old flu or regular cold head but just let's say you didn't do any testing this is just hypothetical let's say you've got lots of lots of meds because I think you could make them quicker then you could make test kits and and you know it's easier to give them ed than to give a test so I think you're going to see pop-up tents in the vicinity of hospitals or maybe other places you probably want to be close to a hospital you know sort of within walking distance of a hospital with your pop-up tent because somebody's gonna walk in there with a with the worst case and they should have gone to the emergency room so you need to get them there quickly so I think what you can see is as especially in California and in other places as the weather warms it's going to be tent tent worthy of weather and we're gonna see pop-up tents with people who are just dispensing the meds to people who are now so sick that

[12:36]

meds to people who are now so sick that they really need to be in the in the intensive care so the first thing I think is that our ability to deliver it to people who are not critically ill will be very high so there's there's your back to work program I think in a week maybe two we're going to have really solid risk/reward information about these meds at that point the government is going to start turning back turning the knob but it's not going to be a switch it's going to be okay in these places these kinds of people in these jobs go back to work take the restaurants for example the restaurant business you could easily imagine that restaurants would be approved for work under the following conditions nobody under 60 in the restaurant right now if you take the people over 60 and of the restaurant consumer business you lose a lot of money because people over 60 are a big

[13:36]

money because people over 60 are a big big big part of the restaurant business everywhere but could you get them up to getting close to meeting the rent just by saying if your servers are 20-somethings and you limit your customers Donder 60 and and you spread out the tables let's give it a try maybe not in New York City but maybe in Toledo so in other words if you're thinking it's a light switch economy on an economy off you're dead wrong it's not going to be that it's going to be a phased test test test it's going to happen fairly rapidly and we'll have to we might test them things and pull back you know say oh we tried it in Toledo but Toledo got out of control pull back and that's how we're gonna beat this thing now let's talk about Rachel Maddow and all the bad reporting this is what Rachel Maddow said yesterday this is quote but the president loves saying things like you know quote there's a drug we've got it it's very effective

[14:37]

drug we've got it it's very effective it's approved already everybody's going to get it unquote he loves saying things like that because that would be a lovely thing to be able to tell people unless of course that's not true in which case telling people a fairy tale like that is cruel and harmful and needlessly diverting and wildly irresponsible from anyone in the leadership role meadow said now so Mather was saying that it's a lie that we have a drug that's very effective and that it's approved already so what would what would the press say about that would the press say yes Rachel Maddow you're you you got him now you know good point Rachel it's that we don't have any effective approved drugs all right well Rachel Maddow please explain the following observation so

[15:40]

explain the following observation so since our press has largely failed us and I think I think you could say that you know I'm seeing some good reports Joel Pollock is doing you know great stuff you know actual sort of sourcing stuff from real people in the real world instead of just talking to politicians and seeing what their dumb quotes are so most most of the news is just resorted to listening to people and then telling you what they said and it's only the people who volunteer to talk politicians but any real investigative stuff is is woefully lacking and I did something for you okay I'm gonna tell you something that the news won't tell you because I know it I have a direct you know a direct knowledge of this fact that I'm going to tell you as of yesterday actually just hours ago last night a a patient who had all the

[16:41]

last night a a patient who had all the symptoms and I think by now has been confirmed to have corona virus and it's somebody who knows exactly how they got it in other words it's now somebody who just suddenly had symptoms and then I think I have it it was somebody who had close contact with somebody who had it they had all the symptoms you know just classic that tight chest you know the dry cough the whole thing went to the emergency room and I got to follow the whole path so I was sort of in close contact because it's a friend and there was like an immense wait at the emergency room I think it was an hour's long wait but when he got in he was almost immediately put on chloroquine now I know that I know that personally because I heard it from the person like actually just hours ago a real a real patient went into a real hospital and got chloroquine Rachel Maddow says this is

[17:44]

chloroquine Rachel Maddow says this is not true she says that the president loves saying that there there's a drug we've got it's very effective and it's approved already I can confirm that medical professionals are giving people this drug and do you think they're giving it to people because they don't think it works do you think it's just well we don't know you know just guessing just guessing no now the medical professionals are pretty damn sure this works and as a very at the very least it's not harmful I mean it's a well tolerated well understood drug especially in short-term doses which this would be it's the long term stuff that even has any side effects at all so rachel maddow what does it mean when you say it's not approved well let me explain this approval isn't that approval again trapped in the prison of two ideas the the Gutfeld frame on things she's believing that a drug can

[18:47]

things she's believing that a drug can be either approved or not approved and that's just wrong it's just wrong you can have a drug that's approved for something else they used off-label you can have it you I get there's a compassionate use clause I don't know how liberal that is imagine you go into a hospital and you say there are three known studies that show that this drug is super effective and has basically nothing to worry about in terms of side effects you go into the hospital you say that can I get that drug because I'm coffin I've got I got the coronavirus I got the cove in nineteen I could be dead in you know a few days without this drug do you think the hospital is gonna say in in this current situation do you think the hospital is gonna say you know I don't know it doesn't look dire enough no now if they have the drug they're gonna give it to you right away there's no question about it the the doctors is not going to

[19:48]

about it the the doctors is not going to say huh now let's let's learn a bit more about this I I don't know if this will quite fit into that off-label use I'm not sure I'm not sure if you know it's a compassionate use no nothing like that's happening in the real world in the real world this drug is approved oh is it technically approved in the sense that the FDA has said you can use it for this and here's the exact dosage regimen no no my understanding is that unless it happened recently my understanding is it's not approved in that very technical specific way but do the doctors know what regimen to use yes because the other country has tried things and they just told them and then they tried it and it worked so yeah there may be some more ideal a regimen but we do know what it is I just saw it twice on Twitter if I know what the regimen is well doctors know I mean I'm

[20:51]

regimen is well doctors know I mean I'm not sure I'm right but you know the information seems to be widely available based on the experience of other countries so rachel maddow you are just lying to the country you are you are just lying and this is a despicable lie it's not like what you accused the president of doing what you're accusing the president of doing is maybe something that's technically in some you know word and legal way you could define it as untrue but in the real world if you've got the coronavirus Rachel Maddow and you drive into your local emergency room Rachel Maddow they're gonna give you the drug that you just told the world isn't approved and isn't effective now again I'm not guessing I just followed somebody with the freaking coronavirus all you know digitally anyway all the way into the emergency room and then got a picture of the actual IV in the arm and asked what's in there and at least some of the stuff

[21:53]

there and at least some of the stuff that's in there was the chloroquine but I think there was a cocktail in there there's no doubt that the thing is approved in the real world sense you go into your emergency room you're gonna get the frickin drug that's it don't even think that that's not gonna happen that's happening that's that's the fact right now rachel maddow this is one of the most destructive it almost seems intentional because you know I've said this before whatever you think of Rachel now at meadows you know her performance or act or politics anything else the one thing you can't question is she's super smart right nobody says she's dumb I mean even to do this job if you watch her for five minutes you could hate everything she says and still coming away would come away thinking well you're really smart that's the impression I always get this it's like she's really good at her job she's really smart does she not know this distinction because I know it and

[22:54]

distinction because I know it and I would have to guess that if rachel maddow took you know some kind of standardized tests like if i competed with her for the SATs i think she'd beat me if we took a test of just knowledge just how much do you know about you know the world I think she'd beat me and and I know this are you telling me she doesn't know that anybody can get this drug because doctors gonna be kind of flexible in the emergency situation she really not know that I don't know I don't want to be the guy who reads the mind and says oh no you're lying intentionally because you know we could easily be in this cognitive dissonance situation where she she wants it to be true that he lied other people said he lied it just feels right so she went with it but I don't know I don't know how you could be that smart and that dumb at the same time but yes that's the question I saw yet another report from somebody who turned one ventilator into many with

[23:55]

who turned one ventilator into many with a with a combination of creative hosing and attachments so I guess the ventilator engine if you will is powerful enough to to operate multiple hoses if you just if you rig up the attachments and there that's happening now so we've seen two different mechanisms for doing that they're probably both good and I thought I saw that somebody turned in one into nine or something or two into nine whatever it is it's a multiple so that's good news
let's talk about the economic harm of versus the medical harm there is a raging debate and it fascinates me most of the time when there's a debate and there's there are people on the either side I find myself either strongly siding with one side and then I'll look at okay who are the people on my side and I'll look at the ones on my side I'll go oh okay smart person smart person smart person I'm on the right side alright who's on

[24:57]

I'm on the right side alright who's on the other side okay dumb person dumpers have been wrong about everything okay I feel safe so whenever I've been the company of being in the same opinion of people I consider this murder wisest most of the foreign people I feel comfortable I am not comfortable at the moment because there are smart people people I respect and who you know when I if I hear they disagree with me I don't reflexively say well why are they wrong I reflexively say oh god I might be wrong this time and and there people are saying smart people that we've gone too far closing the economy and we should open it back up and we should do it pretty soon and just you know take what's coming you know it's it's going to be there's gonna be death there's gonna be problems but it's better to have an operating economy so I'd like to talk to that question open the economy or not now you heard my opinion that we will be opening the economy I'm guessing on the outside two

[25:59]

economy I'm guessing on the outside two weeks from now you should see a phased reopening and phased would be the key word because as soon as as soon as you see motion in the right direction it's gonna change entirely how you feel about it I think we'll be hiding the people who are older and have underlying conditions will get much better at at hiding them oh and by the way there is some early indication you far short of being confirmed that it's actually pretty hard to get in from casual contact so there's not a lot of evidence that people are getting it from just say you know going to the store and shopping with somebody who has it so I've not tell you that safe so let me be very careful the the germ or the I'm sorry the virus apparently lives on surfaces for a long time so in the laboratory and scientifically and logically you can get it going just being in a place where somebody else has it but there does seem to be two factors that player one is that we can't confirm a lot of that has

[27:01]

that we can't confirm a lot of that has happened so every time we can find it every time we know where it came from it seems to be close contact you know you're part of a ventilation system you know it's your spouse you can usually determine there's some kind of pretty close you know intensive contact but we don't actually have a much of any evidence that somebody went to the hardware store and got it when they bought a hammer and I'm just gonna use a crazy example right so there are no evidence that somebody just was away from everybody who had it went to the store bought a hammer or somebody else had touched the hammer and now they got the coronavirus could happen theoretically but the evidence is sort of not so could you protect under those conditions do we know enough to protect the the people of vulnerable and that's a yes it seems like it's entirely about getting them away from other people and only about getting them away from intensive interactions so if somebody

[28:02]

intensive interactions so if somebody needs to deliver some food you know relative needs to you know stand in the doorway and say hi seems perfectly safe your relative to the rest of the world which is unsafe place so here's here's another thing that you should consider the the total closed down or whatever you want to call it at the current situation whatever this is we probably want to take this as close as we can to the edge of destruction before we change right so if we're doing this right it should look worse and worse and worse until it looks so bad we think we're gonna lose the entire economy and right there right at that point where all the smart people say okay if you go one more inch if you let this go on one more day I don't know if we can get back that's the day that

[29:02]

if we can get back that's the day that we'll start getting back because that's the day that the cost-benefit analysis just becomes obvious at the moment smart people are disagreeing where where is just the right balance is it is it too soon too late smart people you know we're gonna be sort of disagreeing but there will be a point when things become so dire that it looks like okay we can't do one more day we got to take the risk let's get back to work I believe that it makes sense to take it right up to that line it makes sense to get pretty close to the line so you are gonna get a lot more scared before you start feeling comfortable so that's just what to expect but that that means we're doing it right okay the proper strategy should bring bring it as close to the edge but not over the edge to the to the extent that we can determine what that edge is and I think we can actually because we have a situation where nothing's broken you know it's more like can people get food

[30:03]

know it's more like can people get food and you know well know what the edge looks like but I think we're gonna go right up to the darkest darkest point in civilization and then we're going to say stop and then we're gonna start moving the other way but all of that is going to buy us time to get the to get the distribution of these drugs which in my opinion are super effective and would be enough to get at least the under sixties back to work once the under sixties are back to work you're gonna be about at about maybe sixty percent efficiency in your economy fairly fairly quickly all of the over sixties and spend a lot of money they got restaurants you know then you know drive around and buy gas and stuff so you're not going to be fully back but it is worth noting that the people who are not going to work first are the same group or at least likely to have a job you know the the elderly all right there there will be a time when

[31:11]

right there there will be a time when the baby boomers are called upon so I'm in that category of baby boomer and my generation I think it's nineteen forty six sixty four if you were born in that you're a boomer we are most except for the few people lingering who are in that the greatest generation and they're in their 90's aren't too many of them but mostly the people at risk of the Boomers and the boomers will be called upon for sacrifice if you ask me what's best for me well I might want that I might want the economy closed down a little extra long compared to you because that will keep me a little extra safe because I'm over 60 I have an underlying condition asthma and so what's best for me personally would be a longer closed down just just a really really get a handle on this thing what's best for the rest of you people

[32:14]

what's best for the rest of you people who are younger and have less you know death risk what's best for you is to get back to work fairly quickly so you and I you any of anybody who's young and and of work right now your interests and mine are not aligned your best interest and my best interests just don't match so something's got to get right so either you have to not work you being a 30 year old who's out of work right now or I have to take a greater risk of dying and the people in my category have to take a greater risk of dying so how do i how do we get how do we get back to the how do we get the economy working when some big group is gonna have to take a big risk and here's what I'm here to tell you I can't speak on behalf of all boomers of course or on behalf of anybody but I can tell you all take the risk when my government tells me okay

[33:16]

risk when my government tells me okay young people it's safe enough for you because we have good drugs and we've ramped up our tents where you can get quick treatment and everything it's safe enough for you but you burn you Berbers are gonna be a lot less safe now because you know everybody else is out in the world and spreading it around I'm here to tell you I'm signing up for that risk all right I'm in a riskier category you're probably not the riskiest or close to it but you know I'm raised in my aunt I don't know if you'll find too many people in my generation the Boomers who will not raise their hand for this there will be a time that you're your leader is going to call on you to take a risk and Alma sighs risked one you don't one that isn't absolutely necessary but pretty necessary so if you're wondering what the boomers will do or how we will respond to this I got good news for you

[34:17]

respond to this I got good news for you we're a pretty strong bunch we boomers you know maybe the young folks can't quite understand what it's like to be my age let me tell you young people you know I have maybe a third of the people watching this are pretty young based on my stats let me tell you something when you're my age you've seen some stuff and my age has seen some stuff that maybe you can't even imagine you know I've had every childhood disease I've had measles twice the moms chickenpox I beat those I beat those and if I need to get something else that takes me you know takes me out for a few weeks I'll probably be fine because of the meds but if I have to take that risk I'm signing up for it right now so you're boomers are way tougher than you think mentally not physically but mentally and in terms of their

[35:19]

mentally and in terms of their patriotism and their their willingness to take a risk the boomers are gonna step up and you should expect that so expect your boomers to take that risk so the rest of you can go back to work and I'd like to go first when the time it's not yet right I think we have to wait at least a week two weeks at the outside is my best guess before we start phasing young people back with the support of the medical system that can that can keep them healthy and a rapid you know rapid response 15 it almost there two weeks at max 93% of the people who say they have symptoms turn out to be negative I don't know how to process that but let me ask you this how many of you have convinced yourselves there's some time in the last three months you actually had the corona virus because you had that weird illness that that weird coughed that cold that fever

[36:19]

that weird coughed that cold that fever those aches that didn't seem like anything else because I I'm in that category right because if I look at my last three months I think myself you know it was like two weeks there where my whole body ached and I seemed feverish and like it just didn't feel like anything else I've ever experienced and do I believe that I actually have been infected with the corona virus well 93% of the people with symptoms are negative so I'm gonna play the odds probably not probably not somebody says age 66 me to age 63 watch watch the comments watch the comments from the boomers the boomers are ready to save your life I'll just put it put it right there the boomers are ready to to enter the breach we just need the word nobody I don't think the boomers are gonna go first you know we're gonna wait for our leaders to say you know now's the time

[37:21]

leaders to say you know now's the time for you to take it outside risk you're gonna do it for the young that's exactly we do it for we'd be doing it for the young or ourselves as well but the moment our leader asks for that the boomers will will give it to you all right I'm complaining on Twitter today and I'll complain here about our press again why don't we know more about the availability of the chloroquine and the other meds here's what I'd like to know and I'd like to know by the end of the day because this is this is vitally important to the mental health of the country it's one thing to say well we might have a solution it might be coming you but it's completely different feeling if you say we need this many pills we have this much already that'll help us with the most important cases by the end of two weeks we'll have so many pills you're you're drowning them and then and then that's when we do the pop-up tents and that's when we really

[38:23]

pop-up tents and that's when we really we just go nuts on this thing I need to kind of know what the pipeline looks like not just for the chloroquine but the the related drugs that are in the cocktails are using why can't my press tell me that why isn't that I mean for me it comes down to one question two questions there are two questions one is what is the survival rate of people who got the these drugs on time in the United States I think it's going to be close to zero for people who don't have something some other health condition I need to know that and then I need to know what is the availability pipeline if you can tell me those two things and I think the answers are going to be good or at least heading good which is almost as good I'm gonna feel a lot better now is boomer Normandy yeah you know I've thought of that

[39:24]

yeah you know I've thought of that analogy myself you know it's like every generation gets to storm the beaches at Normandy it just looks different you know the the greatest generation literally stormed the beaches of Normandy in a in a hail of bullets ripping them apart did it anyway save the world we boomers are going to be asked to take a little risk it's not nearly the risk of Normandy of course or anywhere in New York but it's could be risk and we will we will take that Beach all right Joe Biden is well apparently Jake Joe Biden's campaign they had a meeting and they were thinking well you know what can we do during this time of crisis when we can't campaign is effectively so they came up with a plan and I assume that it wasn't in the room but I assume the conversation went something like this what is the dumbest least productive most destructive thing

[40:24]

least productive most destructive thing we could do I assume that's what they were trying to decide because they came up with a winner and the idea is that Joe Biden is going to have shadow briefings on coronavirus to show how well he would have handled the crisis compared to all that lying and failure from and Trump now it almost sounds like I'm joking doesn't it because isn't that the worst idea you've ever heard I mean of all the ideas that anybody's had since the beginning of the coronavirus you know some are right some are wrong but this might be the worst idea of all the ideas medically politically strategically philosophically empathetically on every level this might be the worst idea I've ever heard because do you know what the country needs less than having a shadow president lower our confidence in our actual leader it's the last thing we

[41:26]

actual leader it's the last thing we need you're the only thing that's worse than that is actually getting coronavirus I can't even think of a dumber thing to do so I've rebranded this as the shadow of his former self briefings so Joe Biden is a shadow of his former self so if he's giving a shadow briefing let's just fill in the blanks it's a shadow as a former self briefing and I think this shows in this example because let me ask you this do you think he young Joe Biden in better control of his faculties would have made this decision do you think you would have this feels like a staff decision from somebody who isn't good at decisions it might be the very worst idea I've ever seen in the history of all politics nothing about this is good and they're good I don't know will they do it anyway I think maybe they'll get talked out of it my guess is that it's that by the time they get the technology up so he could do it I guess we're waiting to turn his house

[42:27]

I guess we're waiting to turn his house into a studio or something but by the time they can do it I think smart people will talk them out of it you know I I think the the adults in the room the you know the David Axelrod's if you're David Axelrod and you just you just read this and I think Axelrod you know is one of the the smart people in the room right if you're talking politics and strategy and campaigns you want David Axelrod on your and one of the best do you think when he heard this that Joe Biden was going to do shadow briefings to confuse the country on coronavirus do you think Axelrod said whoa good move Joe Biden no no I'm not a mind-reader so maybe he did you know I who knows right I can't determine it but do you think I mean if what you've watched him right you know even if you disagree with all of the politics of David Axelrod is there

[43:27]

politics of David Axelrod is there anybody here who thinks he's dumb no no there's not one person here who thinks David Axelrod doesn't know exactly what he's talking about he's at the top of his game as you know as as informed and you know smart as you could ever be and this this category let's ask him what he thinks I assume you'll be you'll probably be on one of the news shows in the next few days wait for David Axelrod to tell you what he thinks about Joe Biden doing shadow briefings in the middle of an emergency honestly it's the worst idea I've ever seen I'm not even joking it's the worst idea I've ever seen there are bad ideas but you can't find one worse than this and on top of that the things that Joe Biden thinks are lies or because he doesn't understand it I just explained that Rachel Maddow who is about a thousand times smarter than then Biden I mean anybody would anybody would agree with that but Rachel Maddow didn't know that

[44:30]

but Rachel Maddow didn't know that there's this distinction you know between approved specifically and okay to use approve that way she didn't know the distinction do you think Joe Biden knows that distinction I know maybe who knows all right CNN is reporting that they're stunned stunned I tell you by Trump's totally ordinary behavior at press conferences and by totally ordinary I mean he insulted a reporter of CNN for just sort of try to stir up crap now is that a new story we got this coronavirus thing the economy's in trouble I'm pretty sure we have some real news but is it news that Trump acted exactly like Trump for the billionth time in a row do you know what would be news Trump not acting like Trump that would be news there are some news what's not news is drop acting like

[45:32]

news what's not news is drop acting like Trump all right so that that's meaningless meaningless news just it's sort of almost news porn for people just want to hear bad stuff about Trump that's fine but it doesn't have any meaning you're gonna hear lots of stories from people who work at hospitals and those individual stories will sound like this ah it's all chaos nobody knows what's going on nobody knows what they're doing we're just running around like chickens and there's so much and our capacity is crashed let me let me put a big caution on those stories in every organization that's that's doing anything big you could throw a dart into a group of employees look which would be very cruel and dangerous don't throw a dart into a group of employees but if you did that dart would have somebody who when you

[46:33]

dart would have somebody who when you said re pull the dart out stop complaining tell me what you think about management what would they say there's just random organization company doing any big organizational thing what would random employees say about what's going on let me tell you management doesn't know what it's doing it's not communicating we're running around like chickens with our heads cut off it's chaos nobody can agree we don't know where we're going where's our strategy our strategy said every employee of every organization who's going through any kind of a big reorganization or change or transformation so you're gonna hear all those stories listen the people who are a little closer to the top of the chain to find out what's going on because it would be very normal that the people at the bottom don't know what's going on it would be more concerning if the people in management didn't have a pretty good handle on it

[47:34]

didn't have a pretty good handle on it or at least they're trying something and quickly adjusting which gets you to the same place you know a little bit slower than magic bullet but it's the right process so don't put too much credibility in low level low level staffs you know tweeting and getting out messages about how bad things are don't ignore them because they are red flags right so if you hear these reports I think the press should should try to contact them and maybe dig in and compare it to what the management is saying and you know get an independent view so there you should definitely pay attention to them as red flags but until the press is you know to the extent that the press is doing his job until you get a little more from management you don't have the picture just that's just a caution that you might hear some alarming stories that might not tell you what's going on all right I put out this provocative thought and I was quite

[48:36]

provocative thought and I was quite surprised the smart people who did not totally reject it and it's a category I'd have to say I don't understand well enough to have a firm opinion so I put it in the form of a question and one like this if the government created and issued a government-backed cryptocurrency so in other words if the government made its own version of a Bitcoin or some other crypto and just gave it to everybody who who had low income and at least had the capability of having a smartphone and could figure out how to get it and spend it now of course there are practical issues about who can use a crypto wallet it's a little complicated etc but I just put it out there for the the conceptual feedback and it was interesting there were people on both sides so I'm I'm gonna stop well short of saying it's a good idea but I will say that the objections I heard didn't make sense so there were people

[49:36]

didn't make sense so there were people who said no you can't you can't create a government cryptocurrency because that would cause inflation to which I said Bitcoin got created did that cause inflation I don't think so did it maybe I mean didn't notice didn't seem to be much of an impact now it could be that you know even Bitcoin is because it is is not big enough to cause inflation but a government crypto especially used NASA's life like this maybe it would but there are a lot of there are a lot of unknowns on this but I just put it out there because the the one thing that cryptocurrency does is it creates money and if nothing so instead of you know running up our debt or printing money that could cause inflation the two ways that you sort of produce money in the normal way it's just a third way to produce money out of nothing but it's a little disconnected from the rest of the economy so I don't know if it would have the same effect I

[50:38]

know if it would have the same effect I just put it out there so that's a question not a suggestion but I think at some point there will be a I mean it's obvious that at some point the government will have a crypto right so if you're gonna have one anyway maybe this is the time to do it I know you're going to see the death rate for coronavirus falling quickly especially because the meds and also because we'll be doing more testings we'll find more people who didn't know they had it we're getting good news about serum therapy convalescent serum therapy now those are fancy words for taking the blood from people who have already recovered taking out the good parts you know that that what's left is in the serum I guess so they reduce the blood down to the the useful parts then inject it into somebody who doesn't have it yet or maybe somebody who does have it I think

[51:38]

maybe somebody who does have it I think either way but it would give them antibodies without them having to develop themselves and a 91 and of 157 patients treated this way showed clinical improvement within 48 hours not bad now that's only 91 out of 157 I believe that the chloroquine is getting and the other drugs in combination etc are getting far higher improvement rates than that but here's another one somebody says Reid Trump tweets and before I do that I'm going to do that right now
okay let me just look at Trump's tweets there must be something going on that's interesting or you wouldn't have alerted me to that Trump Trump one moment please please hold all right oh there we go

[52:40]

please hold all right oh there we go 41 minutes ago hydroxychloroquine and as if through Meissen taken together remember this is coming from the president so this is not a medical person so i hydroxychloroquine and as a thermos and taken together i have a real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine the fda has moved mountains thank you hopefully they will both a h works better with a International Journal in other words combining those two drugs works better than taking water to put in use immediately people are dying move fast and God bless everyone let me let me tell you some behind the scenes information now yeah this this is word-of-mouth it's hearsay to you I know the person and I know the source etc but so put it with a grain of salt but this is something I've heard

[53:42]

salt but this is something I've heard which is was a yesterday maybe yesterday morning or the day before I was asking about the FDA and approval and what I heard and again grayness all right any any anonymous information you want to take with a grain of salt but what I heard was that Trump was telling the FDA get it done and as then we're not going to wait for you you're just gonna do it yeah just just freakin do it you just make this happen so I think the president was putting all kinds of pressure on the FDA now says safe that has the FDA maybe cut some corners because the president's putting pressure on him imagine how much pressure the President of the United States this one this one in particular could put on you if he wants something done and it's a national emergency well that's the kind of pressure that nobody's ever seen I mean

[54:43]

pressure that nobody's ever seen I mean you've never been in that situation will you ever be like that the choke point for a national emergency and the most important leader in the entire world in my opinion this is putting pressure on you to make a decision that's not Mason maybe medically what you wanted to do
you know there's a little bit of risk there I'm not gonna lie there's a little bit of risk there but it's a risk I would have taken based on what I've seen you know I'm assuming the president's seeing stuff functionally similar to what we're saying at this point meaning that these are so low risk because their existing drugs we have some experience with them and there's such a high gain that the risk reward is just blatantly obvious and I think the president especially because you take them for a short term the side effects are more long-term use but we don't need it long-term it's sort of a two weeks and done situation or less and I think the

[55:44]

done situation or less and I think the president is just completely right you know the bureaucracy had to do with the bureaucracy does but I think he he pushed them to act faster than they've ever acted before and I think the president's optimism will be greatly criticized today but you know he said something interesting at the press conference that I hated I hated and loved it at the same time I had a hate love relationship with this statement and the president said that you know you never know he was talking about chloroquine not that hydroxychloroquine which is even better he said you never know you know good indications but personally you know he said he was optimistic and and I thought well you know you better be getting a little bit ahead of the the medical people but I don't think so so I think he's gonna be proven right and the part that I didn't like but I liked a little bit is he said that he's been right a lot he looks at him he goes yeah you

[56:47]

lot he looks at him he goes yeah you know I think this is going to be really good and I've been right a lot now what he said I thought you don't need to say that you know you don't need to say you're right this isn't sort of the time to keep score you know it's national emergency but on the other hand I thought that's kind of true it's kind of true all right when he closed the airport what did everybody say too soon don't do it and now they all say he's right right and you know you can go down the line he's he's you know there would be plenty of stuff for people to complain about and they will but he's been right a lot and in the in the context of an emergency what the public wants to know is that the leaders been right a lot so I got it I liked it because it showed confidence and the public needs to know he's right a lot and I think he's actually right about that that he's right a lot you know I would be the first one to criticize him if I didn't think that was

[57:48]

criticize him if I didn't think that was objectively true but I think it is so let's let's talk more about the economy so I think like I said I think that we're going to be sending the young back to work as soon as we have a really really good handle on the meds but I wanted to go through a long twee thread that I sent out yesterday that I tried to capture for people who don't understand economics and evidence or lived in the world I wanted to give you a little framework so you understand what seeing and what to worry about what not to worry about so I'll just run through this the first thing you should do is not compare this epidemic to any other epidemic because it really isn't something it's not the Spanish flu it's not SARS it's not it's not the regular flu it's not the comical this is not anything so the moment that you try to predict the future by comparing it to something you're already off the rails because that just doesn't work so don't

[58:49]

because that just doesn't work so don't compare it to anything just just know what we know about this and use that all right second thing you need to know is that the economy is a psychology engine so all of the physical assets all the business models are completely intact and they'll be intact if it's one month or two months or three months or one week that stuff is sort of going to be there waiting so that's good
but if we keep our psychology right the economy won't crash because these the economy is all about what do you expect tomorrow well I'll invest today because I expect tomorrow people will buy stuff so expectations in psychology really are the the engine and there are a number of us who are working very hard to keep that as psychology intact you might even say if you were to describe my job at the moment and I would say in the in the

[59:50]

the moment and I would say in the in the crisis everybody has a job it's not the one you're paid for but y'all have a job you know what your job is right sometimes your job is just to stay out of public sometimes your job is help somebody else sometimes your job is your medical professional my job which I assigned to myself based on ability is to keep the psychology engine intact and you'll see plenty of smart people who understand economics who are doing the same if you see somebody who understands economics and is scaring you about what's going to happen then you should say about them they don't understand economics somehow they went to college got a degree got on television to talk about economics but if they're scaring you
you they don't understand economics because economics is fundamentally psychology in the practical world so I'm going to do what some of them maybe are not doing right yet Bill Ackman he's an investor

[1:00:53]

right yet Bill Ackman he's an investor so you have to be careful of anybody who's made bets on this so there are people making bets on the downside butts on the upside and then there are just some people who were just frightened to death so I would ignore individuals no matter how talented I would sort of look for that look for the consensus because individuals are just being scared and or have a bet in the other direction that sort of thing so I wouldn't worry about Bill Ackman or any specific person who seems a little frightened there will be very smart and knowledgeable people who're just frightened everybody has a different a different button right the thing that the thing that frightens you won't be the thing that frightens me and vice versa so you just know that there's a huge individual difference in how frightened people are that is independent from what the world is so I and people who understand economics as a psychology engine or going to hold this together we're going to because we have

[1:01:56]

together we're going to because we have the ability we have the time not going anywhere we have the motivation and we have you know if you have ability time motivation and the technology to get it out you can guarantee that the people who understand this stuff will hold it together now those W plenty of people were flipping out but on the whole people like me and people who who have the comm or voices and understand how economics work we will hold this together you just have to listen to us and you can do that right now now keep in mind that we don't know if a trillion dollar aid or two trillion is right amount experts to disagree and effects person is we what are you and I have to say about it really except this if you have a choice between approving two trillion or one trillion which is the right decision mathematically hard to tell because you

[1:02:57]

mathematically hard to tell because you know there's a there's a cost for doing too much and there's a cost for doing too little and we can't predict either one and yet there is a right answer and it looks like this you have to go with the big number if the big number is out there you got to take it in the same way that when President Trump said well we might need two point five billion and the Democrats said how about something like nine billion because we've been here before it's going to be more expensive than you think whoever says the biggest number wins in an emergency all right so for confidence and for the engine of the economy which is psychology there is one right answer and it's the big number but because there's a risk with the big number there's a way to gain this you announce approval of the big number and then at the same time you announce that you're gonna use half of it and then read then reevaluate you win because we'll probably be smarter you know in a

[1:03:59]

we'll probably be smarter you know in a few weeks and we'll know if that second half that second trillion is critical or not but if you announce the whole two trillion people say okay thank god they're not being stingy thank goodness they're going for the big number thank goodness they took it seriously and then you still just approved approved for immediate release the smaller number and the big ones just waiting it's already approved so that can that can get out in a few days so the smart way to play this is to approve the big number the psychology engine of economics stays intact as best I can and then you you still monitor it as you go so you can pull back when you need to next the human ingenuity that's being concentrated on this thing I feel like we're not only gonna get past this I feel like we're gonna cure the common cold now that might be a little hyperbole but the amount we're gonna learn about dealing with you know all of the pandemic situation is tremendous and

[1:05:01]

the pandemic situation is tremendous and I think the human ingenuity we're seeing it already I mean in every possible way that from the medical community to economics you are seeing ingenuity like I've never witnessed not even close I have to think that in World War two there was a similar you know explosion of ingenuity because you just had to you just had to figure out how to live when everything was getting blown up but in my life since I didn't live through World War two I've never seen this degree of human ingenuity it's it's breathtaking and we'll be talking about that for decades and I like I like I like to say it this way esque warren buffett how smart it is to bet against the US economy because people are looking at the economy and say uh-huh some some people think it'll come back some people think it'll go lower some people just you know it'll all disappear all be an agrarian society but Warren Buffett has a pretty good track record and I haven't seen him talk about this

[1:06:03]

and I haven't seen him talk about this recently but do you think Warren Buffett is betting against the US economy nope nope but he's not because he never has and I'll bet he never will so if Orin Buffett and here I'm just speculating because he hasn't said anything but he's never bet against the US economy and I think you could take some comfort from that even now there's no way he's gonna bet against it
next you can count on the people who have money the people who got through the the virus crisis intact financially you can count on them to go back hard and spend I'm gonna commit right now at the moment I could leave the house I'm just gonna be a reigning cash on my local economy I'm gonna eat out as much as Christina wants to go out to dinner I'm gonna buy stuff locally I'm just gonna spray money into the local economy I'm pretty sure that anybody who has the ability to do the same is going to be

[1:07:03]

ability to do the same is going to be thinking in those terms if only because they have a lot of pent-up demand they've been home too long so that's good the the biggest economic variable after the virus itself is what's going to happen because of it you know what things do change because we went through this experience and the biggest thing obviously is the supply chain there's no doubt anymore that we'll be decoupling from China how many of you a year ago when I was saying decouple from China how many of you thought to yourself good luck Scott but that's not gonna happen because that's just crazy yeah the the china-us trade is just so big and so important we're not gonna decouple you know slowly quickly we're just not going to do it it's too important a year ago that just sounded crazy didn't decouple from China what do you think now what do you think now well now you think is guaranteed so when

[1:08:06]

well now you think is guaranteed so when I says guaranteed I don't mean will stop doing business with China I don't mean that I mean that you're not going to see much new going there you're definitely going to see the critical businesses come back pharmaceuticals etc and I would recommend that that become a cabinet-level job I think we need a cabinet-level doesn't have to be a cabinet but a cabinet level position to do nothing but repatriate our supply chain for because it's a now a critical you know defensive situation so I think that's gonna happen that's guaranteed and that'll be tremendous for the economy I think businesses that were profitable before of the virus will have no problems getting bank credit to go back to work if you're a bank the very best loan you want to give somebody is for a good business that you know is good it's been in business 20 years and they've got a temporary shortfall of cash for an identifiable problem that's already been fixed oh my god

[1:09:08]

already been fixed oh my god if you're a banker and by the way I used to be a bank lender I used to make loans businesses in my early days if you're a bank lender you never get to see that well sometimes you do but it's your favorite kind of lovin your favorite loan is the business that's already proved that can make money had one problem needed a little cash to just get through and they've already solved the problem you can't get better than that that's your best loan right there so banks are gonna be having a heyday people the good the big good businesses will come back reliably the weak businesses may get may close but maybe they were going to anyway if you know what I mean if you're if you're new to following me I should mention that I have a degree in economics and an MBA if anybody is just popping on here to watch the cartoonist talk and I'm talking about economics you're saying to yourself although that doesn't make sense why do I listen to an artist about economics but I do have some background in this stuff and here's something else

[1:10:09]

in this stuff and here's something else you should have confidence in
me we're gonna get through this and I will guarantee you that the psychology of our economic engine will stay strong strong enough you know it's going to take a hit but strong enough and I am dedicated full time to that I mean I'm gonna be talking about all the topics related around it I'm not gonna be focusing on the economy but there are smart people who have your back and they're gonna keep these psychology right we're gonna keep the focus in the right places we're gonna make sure the press is doing its job and we're gonna have a continuous pipeline of advice and feedback to our government you know I said this before but I just I just need to say this every time it happens because you because you don't see it happening and I do i I have experienced

[1:11:09]

happening and I do i I have experienced I don't know eight times in the last few days probably eight different times I've seen something that I thought would be useful for the government to now in some cases it's people putting together factories and they need they need the government to know they're building something that would help in some cases it's information etc but in eight different occasions I sent an idea up the line and heard confirmation that it reached the White House meaning the actual staff that would make the decisions on it in hours and sometimes less than an hour sometimes less than one hour a good idea or an input would go all the way up to the very committee in the government that cares about it and I would give feedback right away and sometimes it meant introducing some people and doing some things now I'm just one person I don't know how many people are interacting with their government but I gotta tell you you know our our form of government tends toward

[1:12:12]

our our form of government tends toward bureaucracy in normal times and in normal times you it's just hard to get stuff done let's submit it you know your government just builds you know layers and layers of complexity until it's just hard to get anything done but in the emergency that's all gone it is all gone there is no friction between somebody wants to help and has a good idea and and your government they have just become one entity the public and the government we're not even different people anymore it used to be there's the government and there's people we just did this ooop government in people same team same objective you know I had the ball everything so we're gonna get this done so here's what you look for look for your government to say that they're considering a phased phased approach to coming back and it will be based on having pop-up tents and and extra capacity for the mildly sick people who

[1:13:15]

capacity for the mildly sick people who went back to work maybe got it took some pills rested at home until they were good to go so everything is trending in exactly the way you want it will look worse if there's anything that you need to know in the next week maybe two weeks the economy is gonna look really bad it's supposed to that means that we're strategy of moving up to the line is getting close to the line and when we get close will be about the same time that we have enough of the meds and enough pop up tends to to give them out and then it's back to work people in a phased way and if you don't own stocks if you don't own stocks then honestly I'd feel bad for you and I'm I have to be very carefully or I do not do not take financial advice from cartoonists but honestly I'd feel sorry for you if

[1:14:15]

but honestly I'd feel sorry for you if you didn't own stocks and the president said we're looking at a phased approach to putting people back to work you know based on health and availability of this medicine that's coming next two weeks the President of the United States is going to stand in front of the country and say some of you are going back to work and here's why you're gonna feel a lot better so my job is to keep the psychology of the economy strong until that day the president stands in front of you and says some people are going back to work we're going to be careful but we're starting now so there's your good news for the day I will try to get back with you later today but you should trust that good well-meaning capable people are all over this and we'll pull you through you're gonna be great talk to you later