Episode 837 Scott Adams: Talking Turkey, Democrat’s “B” Team, Coronavirus Predictions

Date: 2020-03-02 | Duration: 49:04

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Paul Singer trying to oust Jack Dorsey One term Presidential candidates Chasten Buttigieg’s speech, moved me Confusing Turkey conflict news What stops ANY flu from becoming pandemic?

If you would like my channel to have a wider audience and higher production quality, please donate via my startup (Whenhub.com) at this link: https://interface.my/ScottAdamsSays

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## Transcript

[0:09]

hey everybody come on in here you're all still alive Corona some coronavirus hasn't gotten you yet stay strong stay with me we will get through this all right before we begin shall we begin on a good note a positive note the best note there ever was yes it's called the simultaneous hip and all you need all you need is a copper mercury glass Integra chelators taina can't injector flasks a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee enjoyed me now for the unparalleled pleasure that don't be inhibited today the thing that makes absolutely everything better it's called the simultaneous sip go
prospects a rising stock market is getting stronger coronaviruses is getting handled yes that was a good set mm-hmm turkey seems to be getting rid of

[1:11]

mm-hmm turkey seems to be getting rid of bad people hmm yeah pretty good set let's talk about the news all the news so yesterday I tried buy new equipment that you see behind me it's called Wirecast a gear and it's meant to allow me to do split-screen livestream broadcasting but it has so many options for doing that that it's taken me literally months to figure out which ways to do it there's several ways to do it and they all have one thing in common they don't work every time so I spent nine thousand dollars on this gear to solve one problem which is that I could not reliably have two people up and hear them and see them and do it interview so nine thousand dollars and three months later I have determined through trial and error and document station and working with tech support that none of the at least three

[2:14]

that none of the at least three different methods for doing that work every time so you can't really set up an interview and schedule it with anybody who's notable if you have a technology that doesn't work every time and we can't really say why maybe it's because the version change or Skype upgraded used to be compatible but now it's not so that was nine thousand dollars of wasted money so we work we probably won't be doing any interviews with that technology anyway but let's talk about some other things there's a little update on the Eddie Gallagher story he's the seal who was convicted for taking a picture with a dead soldier and posing with it which is a big no-no in terms of military professionalism but independent of the events in the story which are less interesting to me I would like to

[3:15]

less interesting to me I would like to make the following let's say philosophical lied in the sand and it goes like this Eddie Gallagher took part in the photograph that the public should never have seen but Eddie Gallagher did not show the photograph to the public he showed it to I don't know a friend or something like that he did not I don't believe he posted it on social media I believe his intention was that somebody personal to him would see it now would the person who he sent it to be offended by the picture probably not because he would have picked somebody who he knew would not be offended presumably now that was his total crime in my opinion yeah at least in terms of the photograph part of the story the total crime was that he sent it to one person I think one person in order a few

[4:16]

person I think one person in order a few privately I think that's what he should be I think that's all the only thing he should be accused of and would it have any impact on the world if one friend saw an inappropriate photograph of the answer's no so what Eddie Gallagher intended to do he did it poorly because the photograph got out but what he intended to do was harmless relatively you know so you don't want anybody taking that kind of picture obviously it could have had an impact on the people who are local when it happened the other the other military etc so it's not it's not trouble-free but it's a small problem once that photo became public the small problem turned into a really quite a serious one and one that somebody should go to jail for and I think the person should be the person who released the photograph so I think the person who should go to jail

[5:16]

think the person who should go to jail is the person who put that in the public and I'm going to say this as a general statement about photographs and quotes and jokes we should develop this standard it doesn't exist right now we allow something really really stupid to happen and destroy lives every day and it's just stupidity and it goes like this two people are having a private conversation one of them says something that doesn't offend the person they're talking to because they understand the concept and maybe they're just not easy to offend but then they tell somebody they reprint the text or they post the meme they tell you what somebody said and suddenly the context has changed and now that innocent statement made by the original person innocent in the sense that it was never intended to hurt it was intended to be private but once somebody makes that public I feel it was

[6:17]

somebody makes that public I feel it was super strong about this point they have to take responsibility from what happens from that point on the person who broadcasts it should go to jail not the person who sent it to one person privately that's just bad that's bad you don't want it discourage it you know depending on the message but it's nowhere near it's not anywhere near the amount of evil and badness of the person who produced the picture for the public that's that's a level of evil that I can't I can't tolerate alright so with that said I'm a hundred percent in favor of president Trump's let's say generous generous treatment of Eddie Gallagher alright let's talk about Oprah I swear the simulation just keeps giving us little gifts you probably have all seen the viral video of Oprah falling down onstage I guess or she had some heels on that were poorly designed did she

[7:19]

that were poorly designed did she actually trapped just over her own feet or slept on him some down and fell got a little bit injured she has to ice her leg doesn't look bad now there's nothing funny about somebody falling on stage does you've seen a lot of people who've had serious injuries falling on stage there's nothing funny about it unless the moment you fall the topic you're talking about is balance because that's what happened Oprah was literally walking on stage alone just her on stage talking about how important it is to have balance and then she lost her balance and fell on her face on stage now again she was a little bit hurt and that's not funny unless unless she was talking about balance at the time she fell I'm sorry Oprah I love Oprah no offense intended I'm sorry Oprah really I am what it's a

[8:21]

I'm sorry Oprah really I am what it's a little bit funny right I mean let's let's reverse it let's do the let's do the thing where you say okay if that had happened to me if I had been talking about balance and fell on my ass on stage and hurt myself you know but not badly you know just need a little ice what I think that was funny as people were laughing at me and the answer is yeah I would I would totally think that was funny I would I would retweet that myself because that would be pretty hilarious actually even if I were hurt as long as it wasn't that bad you know just a just a bruise I would like to introduce a new law I call the Adams law of Amazon book reviews and it goes like this that if there's a book now this might not apply to other goods but this applies to the books if there's a book that has over a hundred reviews which means there are enough reviews to assume it's not just trolls right so over a hundred means

[9:22]

trolls right so over a hundred means it's probably real people most of them anyway and over half of the reviews are five stars meaning that a lot of those hundred people think it's a terrific book and I'm not talking about my box I'm just talking books in general if over half of them think it's a five-star terrific book every one-star review comes from a troll an idiot or somebody with an agenda which could be the same they could overlap but I've never seen what I consider a legitimate one-star review for a book could be for other things because you know tools are different for different people etc but legitimate one-star review I've never seen it on something that also had more than half of them five-star reviews so just keep that in mind now is it true every single time probably not but it's close if you look at one-star reviews of books a lot of times it's obvious they haven't read the book and sometimes they

[10:22]

haven't read the book and sometimes they even say that there are one-star reviews that I get all the time all the time from people who say in the review they haven't read the book and they say there's something about me that they hate so they give me a one-star review happens all the time now they don't last because people complain and get rid of them but a lot of the reviews are just fake you should know that in other news big rich guy hedge fund guy Paul singer is trying to oust Jack Dorsey from his CEO role at Twitter the stock market seems to like that because Twitter stock is up 8% now I always wondered how long it would last the jack could have to CEO jobs you know simultaneously CEO of square and Twitter and I guess as long as things are going well that's fine but people are complaining the Twitter's not making as much money as they think you should so at this point that becomes a target

[11:24]

so at this point that becomes a target and I guess Jack Dorsey is sent these planning to spend six months a year in Africa while running two companies in the United States I had to see a little trouble coming right I don't have any opinion about whether Jack could pull that off in other words could he successfully run two American companies while spending six months a year in Africa and the answer is maybe I know he started up two of the most important countries companies in the country successfully would you bet against it you know if Jack had been part of one gigantic billion-dollar company you'd say well maybe he got lucky maybe worked with good partners you know which is getting lucky but if you're part of two that you were part of the startup and they're both billion-dollar companies and doing pretty well well maybe there

[12:24]

and doing pretty well well maybe there is something about you right I mean I wouldn't rule out that Jack has some talents that maybe Paul singer is is blind to but I'm not sure that Paul singer is entirely about the money in this case because if you don't know Paul singer is and correct me if I'm wrong I believe he's one of the wealthiest most active anti choppers so I believe he's Republican anti-trump ur type would you want somebody who's anti Trump but conservative in this case to have more control over Twitter I don't know is that better or worse than whatever the situation is now it doesn't sound good but I don't know necessarily it's worse so that little fights going on we'll keep an eye on that you know Twitter is not like any other product in

[13:25]

Twitter is not like any other product in my opinion and I don't use Facebook so maybe I mean I use it just to look at other people's photos but I don't really look at any political stuff there it seems to me that Twitter is like the brain of the planet meaning that if Twitter doesn't like something it's probably not going to happen meaning the majority of Twitter users and if the majority of Twitter users do like something probably will happen I think Twitter is the the dog that's wagging the tail at this point it's not I don't think Twitter is any longer just people talking about things that are happening that's how it started but at this point I think Twitter is what's making things happen that's a big difference so Twitter isn't like any other American company and at some point we may have to recognize that in terms of you know what the public is comfortable with in terms of their board of directors and everything else it

[14:28]

of directors and everything else it wouldn't be bad to have some diversity on the board of the of the political type and I don't know if that's I don't know if that's the case but it would be good damn it all right Jack Welsh died today at age 84 here's why that's more important than you would think of course it's important when a business icon dies it's always big news but he died at 84 here are the ages that these candidates for president would be if they finished a second term and and a second term is really the only reason you should elect a president in my opinion why would you ever vote for a president that you believed would be limited to one term wouldn't that be just a terrible choice because if you want your party to really make a difference you can see with this president that you can do a lot in four years

[15:28]

years but eight years is a big difference almost double some would say you know you have that lame-duck thing so it's not quite double but it's more why would anybody nominate a candidate for president who couldn't reasonably be expected to finish two terms if that person did well so here are the ages of Biden he would be 85 if he finished a second term Bloomberg 86 Bernie 86 Jack Welsh died at 84 now do you think that Jack Welsh was a hundred percent mentally capable of you know let's say being a president at age I don't 82 I don't know probably not probably not so this is the sort of thing that adds context to what you are already thinking and this Jack Welsh death might mean more than you think because of his he has a very coincidental age and he's let's say by

[16:33]

coincidental age and he's let's say by not by association but let's say by importance and Gravatt gravitas and wait there's something about Jack Welsh which is similar to a president right he was a CEO of you know one of the biggest companies most famous business person so in our minds we sort of put him in that same category as like a President of the United States you know different job but same like high-level kind of dude in this case a dude and I think it does matter to our sense of context and contrast because those are very influential then you see somebody that reminds you of these other people they're they're sort of you know old white guys who run stuff and that he died at 80 former I think it matters I think the ages of the candidates are going to be a real big issue all right there is a little bit of disagreement about whether Jack Walsh was the

[17:34]

about whether Jack Walsh was the greatest business person in the world or
I have a little mixed feelings about it usually don't talk poorly of people on the same day that they die but I'm going to make an exception for Jack Welsh and I'm going to make an exception for him because part of his management genius was cruelty cruelty the the the G method was too fired the year 10% worse workers no matter what every year he was probably the cruelest leader that we've seen he also shipped a lot of his jobs to China with no apology and I believe that a lot of his success this part I'm going to say I don't know this to be true so fact check this because I don't want to libel him on the day that he dies can you libel somebody if they're dead I don't even know if that's the thing but

[18:41]

there's there's at least some suggestion that he destroyed the company in other words that he built up profits through the the financial part of the company then they weren't as real as they needed to be so somebody needs to fact check me on that but be very very skeptical of anything you see today that says he was he was great for this country just be skeptical about that maybe he was maybe wasn't and again I wouldn't say this about somebody on the day that they died except that the reason he's famous is for being the bastard so you know I just don't have any sympathy for him frankly I saw video Don jr. tweeted around in which Joe Biden promised some people that I know some gathering he was speaking to that he would raise their taxes and here's the funny part I couldn't tell if it was a gaffe he looked at the crowd and he said he promised somebody was good or you would raise their taxes was that a gaffe

[19:44]

raise their taxes was that a gaffe because I can't tell because I'm pretty sure he wants to raise taxes but I thought he was talking about the and here's the interesting part if I had to guess I would guess it's a gaffe unless he's saying I'm being honest with you I'm gonna raise your taxes a little bit so we can have universal healthcare but here's the funny thing I can't tell Oh somebody says watch the whole clip and then it would be obvious to me so but here's the point the point is that you can't tell that's the funny part all right the funny part is you don't even know if it's a gaffe or it's real if you can't tell if somebody is gaffing or telling you what they really intend to tell you that's not a strong candidate it's not
so as Kyle Caffrey noted on Twitter probably other people have had this idea but I like it that Bernie Biden in Bloomberg who seemed like you know the

[20:46]

Bloomberg who seemed like you know the three most likely candidates they're literally the B team Bernie Biden and Bloomberg though all with ABI now of course Sanders starts with an S but we call him Bernie so they're literally the B team again Oprah falls down when she's talking about balance and the last three candidates for the Democrats who don't look that strong are literally the B team I love the simulation how many times have I told you in different contexts that in hypnosis class we learned that people tell you exactly what they're really thinking by their choice of words so they can be telling you a is true a is true of a is true but sometimes the choice of words in which they're telling you a is true is really to tell you they mean B is true and you can see this a lot so you look for the words they choose not just the message that they're communicating and you see this with

[21:48]

communicating and you see this with Buddha judge when he dropped out of the race you all know that Buddha judge dropped down and his argument is that he says it fairly directly that it's to consolidate support with a candidate who is not Bernie basically so that they could make be Trump so Buddha jej talks about beating Trump Biden says beat Trump Bloomberg says beat Trump if you ask them why they're running for president they say be we want to beat Trump what if that's what they mean what what if you actually took their words and said okay what if I were you know if there were no context here and now we're just looking at these words what if I just looked at the words and said okay they mean exactly what they're saying this is the hypnotist trick and what they're saying is that that's their top priority is beating Trump what's missing from that anything that's good for you where's the part where they're gonna

[22:49]

where's the part where they're gonna help you where is the part they're gonna make you richer where's the part where they're gonna make you safer where's the part where they can make you happier where's the part where they're gonna I don't know improve the military reduce crime give you more health care now at least Bernie and Elizabeth Warren are are actually famous for their specific policies and I give them that that's as a lot to do with weather why at least Bernie is doing well is that he's got very bold policies even even people who absolutely don't want him to be president the people like talker Carlson I just saw him somewhat complementary say Bernie Sanders is bold whatever else you want to say about him his vision is bold as hell all right can't take that away from and we like that we'd like bold but it's clear that the that the more conservative side the

[23:50]

the that the more conservative side the the Biden Bloomberg Budaj edge Bernie part without the Bernie part that they really do only have one goal which is to beat Trump do you want to vote for somebody whose philosophy is we know that Trump is a monster who will destroy the world but here's the weird part it doesn't happen in the first four years for some reason there's a timer on it for years well those are free the way the league is reelected oh we told you aborted orange man bad and we meant it but what we meant was not the force for years because if if the if the Democrats were running against Trump's record they would run against his record wouldn't they if that's the purpose of trying to get elected is to help you and run against his record and run against the

[24:51]

against his record and run against the things he's broken and fix them I believe they would say those things if they thought the public was ready to accept them but instead and this is the hypnotists trick they say over and over again as clearly as possible their top priority is to beat Trump do you want a president whose top priority was simply to beat the other guy I can't think of a worse president that would be among the worst reasons for anybody to ever be a president complete waste of time Bloomberg is going to spend a billion dollars or whatever just a beat to beat Trump that just feels personal doesn't doesn't it just feel personal it no longer in there no longer even looks like you know they're they're even trying to be you know political even it just looks personal Budaj edge quit gave

[25:53]

just looks personal Budaj edge quit gave his little speech I really enjoyed his husband cheston's little introductory speech I thought that Chaston was very likable and I would give him well maybe this is too bold I'll say it anyway chastened Buddha judge for Nobel Peace Prize now think about it think about it now if you didn't see the speech that doesn't mean that's pretty confusing but according to chasten I believe I believe it that part of the reason he encouraged Pete to run for president was because of what it would say you know what it would show the world and so the two of them and I think Cheston was a pretty big part of this was showing the world that you know Pete could be an out

[26:55]

world that you know Pete could be an out proud mary gay man could run for president and that the public would support him and that it would change the world did it I think it did I think it did I watched chest and go up on stage and kiss beyond the lips in front of the public on national TV and I actually clapped I was home you know I was alone and I actually clapped like literally clapped because in losing I think Budaj edge still won now he might come back he might you know be a good president someday I think you know his his closing speech piece anyway I think showed why he's not president or won't be at least this time because it was lacking passion but it sure had lots of smarts in it it was lots of jargon sounded more like a consultant Pete never really spoke to be on any

[27:56]

never really spoke to be on any emotional level but I would say that the end result of his campaign was exactly what Chaston hoped it would be which is changing the way the world looks at the LGBT community I think that was accomplished and if you were to ask me what would you know what would be one of the greatest ways to make the world more peaceful well just look at all the countries that are literally murdering gays Nobel Peace Prize it's not crazy it's not crazy all right so let's just put that out there I was reminded when bootie judge quit that the President had that one of the best kill shots I've ever seen Alfred E Newman cannot become president of the United States now that's a kill shot in a sentence instead of a nickname although the Alfred E Newman part is the strong part but just the the

[28:57]

strong part but just the the construction of this sentence is so wonderful it's such a good construction just Alfred E Newman cannot become President of the United States it's hard to understand how beautiful that sentences until you try to imagine how you would have sent it now I would have said something like he looks like Alfred E Newman which would have been kind of powerful because it make you think of him for a while he could have he could have started calling him Alfred which he didn't interestingly he never really gave a nickname to mayor Pete he sometimes played with his last name as it's hard to pronounce but never really gave him a nickname beyond that one sentence but try to think of a better sentence structure than this one Alfred E Newman cannot become president of the United States it's just kind of perfect right and I don't think the president

[29:57]

right and I don't think the president ever gets credit for his simple perfect statements because you know all the concentration does is on whatever he says wrong in Selma at a black church Bloomberg appeared and I guess there were some protesters who were standing up front were nine of them who turned their backs to him because they're not happy about his probably about stop and frisk I think is what they're that they're concerned about and I thought well that's probably the end of Bloomberg because that's so visual and if you were let's say you're a black citizen of this country and you're thinking about voting and you're just starting to get serious about the figuring out who was left to vote for you don't know much about Bloomberg because you didn't grow up in New York City so you're finding out about him for the first time through the news and you find the news that black churchgoers turned their back on them that's sort of the end right I

[31:01]

them that's sort of the end right I would say that the odds of a Bloomberg president she just just went to zero now I've said that before and it's never been more obvious than now there's a slow realization that the only thing that matters is the black vote now of course everything else has to happen roughly the way we expect it to happen and it usually does most Democrats vote Democrat most Republicans vote Republican you know turnout will be something in that range that we can kind of predict but the black vote congratulations guys you're in charge this year so if the next president doesn't do what you want them to do I let me say this to my fellow black citizens and teammates it's on you this time it's kind of on you because the black the black vote will determine who's the next president there's no doubt about it they there they interestingly it's the most

[32:02]

they interestingly it's the most flexible part of the voting public on this topic for some reason the topic of the presidency so you're in charge I hope you choose well here's some fun you know I jumped on this coronavirus hoax thing early so the hoax part was that the hoax was claiming the president Trump had called the virus itself a hoax which never happened he had talked about how the DEM the Democrats were politicizing it and you know the press at cetera so he said that part was a hoax not that not the virus itself but Politico and others tweeted round and wrote stories saying claiming that the president called it the corona virus a hoax here's the fun part Facebook with its new policy of labeling fake news labeled in fake news so on Facebook Politico story that the

[33:03]

Facebook Politico story that the president called the virus a hoax is actual just labeled figments congratulations everybody I believe that Twitter did this and I believe that because we are all so primed and alerted for these hoaxes now because we've seen so many and how that we see exactly how they're done it's always a misinterpretation we hope they don't check the original they're gonna see the story but they're not gonna see the transcript that sort of thing and we all jumped on it quickly and we just we just hammered that thing when it was still in this crib and I think we killed it maybe I mean it might pop up again but I think that one got killed by a fairly aggressive counteraction and now Facebook is labeled a fake good so good work all right we'll get to the coronavirus of course let's talk about

[34:06]

coronavirus of course let's talk about Turkey first I don't know what's going on in Turkey I'm trying to figure it out I feel like the reporting is failing me so what I can make out is that there's this ad lib is this city near the border of Turkey it's in Syria turkeys pounding this Syrian forces but here's the part we don't understand Russia has decided to just get out of the way which allowed the Turks to just pound the piss on Assyrians now I guess the Turkish military is far more capable because they really it looks like they really slapped around the Syrians but what's happening with Russia is Russia gonna leave are they just sort of staying out of the way where's NATO it's it's a hot war with a NATO with a NATO ally why aren't we in it and if we're not in it why don't we kick turkey out of NATO or

[35:07]

why don't we kick turkey out of NATO or something shouldn't something be happening now it could be that the Russians know that if they attacked Turkey that mate is involved so it could be that the Russians are saying you know risk/reward we're just getting out of the way all we want is a warm port we don't really care about anything else let's just get out of the way so I feel like that story we are not being served well by the press we need a little little extra talking about that all right North Korea launched some short-range rockets which feels like sort of a look at me you look at me now a lot of time has gone by since Kim jong-un said you know he's unhappy about where the conversations are going where the negotiations are going where they're not going I guess don't you think he would have done more if we did not have a president Trump who would at least made some inroads in conversation and opening

[36:08]

some inroads in conversation and opening up the dialogue I think so it feels like North Korea has turned into a weirdly stable situation meaning that we've got sanctions on up obviously North Korea's figured out how to get around them and as long as they believe we're not prepping to attack them and I think President Trump has convinced them that we have zero interest in ever invading North Korea or regime changes it's not what we're worried do i think kim jungeun is just gonna mind his own business for a while and I think these short-range rockets in this case it might not even better a message might have been just a test because short-range Rockets weren't that scary anyway alright let's talk about the corona virus here's my prediction for where things are going to go and that I'll give some context first I asked the question online because it's scary that

[37:08]

question online because it's scary that we don't all know the answer whatever stops the flu from getting everybody might be a few more of those sneezes coming but what stops any flu just a seasonal flu what stops it from eventually affecting everyone now many of you are going to say well I know the answer to that it's it's the weather when the weather gets warm then it doesn't go around as much but how does that make sense let me ask you this where do you spend most of your time in the summer indoors right I live in California in the summer you really can't spend that much time outdoors most of us most human beings spend almost all of our time indoors there's a very few of us are even outdoors except to go to the car you

[38:09]

outdoors except to go to the car you know maybe you go for a run one hour a day maybe outdoors tops that would be typical so if you say the only difference is that people are going outdoors I don't believe I don't buy that at all that doesn't seem like a reason I can because the if you say it's because the temperature I would ask you what is the temperature indoors because that's where we all are it's the same year-round now I'm seeing in the comments and I'm getting to that so some people are saying is humidity so I've heard the theory I don't know how true this is somebody fact-check be in this the whole point of what I'm saying is that I don't understand what's going on let's say it's humidity if it were humidity that makes a difference wouldn't we be pumping humidity into our indoor spaces it's not that hard humidity is easy water little heat humidity so if this coronavirus is this

[39:10]

humidity so if this coronavirus is this gigantic you know deadly thing and it is and if it's true that the summer is when when things are less of a problem and if it's true that it's because of a difference in humidity and it's also true then it's not like we're getting coronavirus from a tree I don't think people get it just because they went outdoors I would guess that nearly all of it is transmitted indoors wouldn't you and if if indoors is the problem and it's the difference of humidity indoors the main factor between rampant spread in the winter versus not rip and spread in the summer wouldn't we be adding humidity dr. Zhu it's about time you got here to answer this question if you know the answer so I'll just I'll ask this to dr. Tripp I'm hoping you're listening right now why don't all viruses eventually affect just about everybody couldn't we add humidity

[40:10]

about everybody couldn't we add humidity to an indoor environment if it's the humidity that makes a difference why wouldn't we be doing that anyway so that's the point most of our time is spent indoors and exactly the same temperature no matter where you are in the world no matter what season it is so it can't be the temperature and I don't think it's just because the kids are not in school because we're still all socializing massively all the time there's nothing about summer that makes you socialize less or even make you be indoors less I mean honestly the difference between being indoors 24 hours a day except going to your car versus being indoors 23 hours day but maybe you go for a run for an hour it's just not that much difference and as somebody's saying in the comments and I said on Twitter it's always winter someplace so here's what I would expect based on based on what the media has informed us which means that there's something missing it's something

[41:12]

something missing it's something important I don't know what it is but it's something important because all those other flus do not seem to infect 100 percent of the world and I don't know why now I can get why maybe 10 percent would be have some weird immunity or 10 percent coincidentally they'll interact with somebody but how does it not get 90% of the public eventually right given all the travel and connections we have so that's an open question dr. drew if you know the answer to that I would love to see it tweet on that now I've heard one speculation is that the virus mutates and the idea would be this you know if I get it from patient zero I've got a version that's pretty close to the one I got I give it to you and yours is one little bit different from the other one patient zero and if enough people give it to enough people one theory is that it mutates enough so it's not quite the same thing anymore and maybe not as viral is that true if it is then this

[42:16]

viral is that true if it is then this virus would be just like every other so here's where I'm getting out from my prediction unless this virus is let's say man-made and I don't think it is or even if it is human-made but it's made to mimic the natural ones it's gonna have the same quality which is for whatever reason it goes away just like every other flu well I don't know the reason and I'm not entirely sure this science knows it I think there's just something in the math yeah there's something I'm not understanding that doesn't smell right but the point being here's my prediction coronavirus will come under control and that's based in the theory that it's not so different from other flus that always come under control a hundred percent of every past bad flu has come under control and that was before we had good good medical treatment etc so first part

[43:19]

good medical treatment etc so first part of the prediction is there will be an end to this the most likely scenario is that it happens within the year that's the first good news but the the bigger issue is and then the second part I would say is if nobody had ever told you there was anything called a corona virus and you just thought that everybody getting the flu we're just getting regular flus would you ever notice that the corona virus had swept through the planet now if it's like Iran where people are seemed to be dropping dropping in the streets well yeah you'd notice the hospitals would be full etcetera if it's like the United States and I don't know what the difference is but so far it seems that it's it's not dropping people in the street if it becomes like that you're going to see that it just runs its course and you wouldn't have even noticed if let me put it this way if the

[44:20]

noticed if let me put it this way if the number of eighty-year-old plus people that you know dying in a year when from seven to nine could you tell the difference well it's a big difference to the people who died obviously but would you know the difference I don't think you would because you don't know if seven people you know over eighty were supposed to die that year because that's when people die or if it was a little extra you actually wouldn't know so there's a good chance that the corona virus will just run this course I do think people will die so far they all seem to be in that age where people are dying in any way not that that makes it better and here's my prediction at the moment the best thing that the world can do for health is take a step back and close some factories which closes all these supply lines if supply lines have

[45:21]

these supply lines if supply lines have stayed closed there would be a massive depression in the world and it would kill far more people than the virus so here's the balance and here's the basis of my prediction at the moment in the short term the highest risk is the virus in the medium term which is I'm just talking about a few months in the medium term the biggest risk of death will be the economy going bad there's a crossover coming and it's just a few weeks away the moment the biggest risk to the world is that the economy is crumbled because the supply lines fell apart at that point people will consciously make the decision to risk the virus to save the economy because that's how you saved the most lives when the economy goes bad people die and then they die a lot you know people will starve it would be massive dislocation and risk so I think there's an inevitable crossover a point where China

[46:22]

inevitable crossover a point where China is going to say yep if we open these factories to two percent plus of the people who go to work are gonna die but if we don't open the factories 10% of our population will die there's no contest there's no contest and China will open the factories because it's the way to save the most people even if 2 percent of them are guaranteed to die now there's nothing to be happy about right but given that we've seen that mostly non compromised people are recovering what I expect is that the factories will open but not until not until the people who have been checked out to be older or to may have some underlying illness they might be relocated in other words there might be some special consideration for people who are a certain age or have any kind of underlying condition that they probably wouldn't go back to work you

[47:23]

probably wouldn't go back to work you have to keep them safe but if you're 30 and you're in good shape and you're Chinese and the worst case for getting the flu is probably a few days off work a couple weeks off of work I think the factory is going to open when that happens your stock market will zoom of course all right does anybody disagree with that I think we're I think we're in the 8 weeks away from the supply lines being reopened and we can probably we can probably get by for 8 weeks we probably have a month of supply for everything there's probably a month where things will be rough but we'll still figure it out and then I think we'll be back in action that's what I think so yeah there's there's a report that they're sending the Uighur to work in the factories and then unfortunately that might be part of the part of the

[48:25]

that might be part of the part of the recovery which is just the worst thing in the world
somebody says if I can't work even at home I can't pay my mortgage that is correct and that's why you will see people going to work and risking the virus because it will be a smaller risk than risking the economy so does that feel like good news because there's really no chance that the economy will go to depression because the risk is gonna flip it's it's just that obvious all right that's why we got going and we'll talk to you tomorrow