Episode 797 Scott Adams: Extra Cursing Today, Mopey Dick Trying to Harpoon Trump, FISA Abuse

Date: 2020-01-24 | Duration: 1:12:18

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Wuhan Coronavirus, entire cities quarantined 3rd party apps controlling Twitter DOJ: 2 FISA renewals NOT valid Joe Rogan will probably vote for Bernie Kamala Harris the likely VP candidate Simple Impeachment defense…there WAS a national interest Adam Schiff winning (so far) with loserthink Democrats beginning to embrace SAFE Gen IV nuclear Netanyahu and his rivals invited to White House

If you would like my channel to have a wider audience and higher production quality, please donate via my startup (Whenhub.com) at this link: https://interface.my/ScottAdamsSays

> [!note] Rough Transcript
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## Transcript

[0:13]

hey everybody come on in here well yes this is where a coffee with Scott Adams happens every day at this same time DJ doctor funk juice thank you for your continued support on Twitter I know what you want now yeah it's obvious it's written all over your faces you're looking for the simultaneous up well he came to the right place you did and all you need is a cup or more glass of tanker chelators ty the canteen jug of flask a vessel of any kind filled with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine hit of the day the thing that makes everything better these simultaneous go
so as you're aware the biggest news of the day is this corona of virus there seems to have started in China from

[1:14]

seems to have started in China from eating bath or something I'm not sure I believe the story of where it's starting but as you know it's a major outbreak it's killed 26 people hundreds of people have been infected China is closing entire cities entire cities are being closed you can't give in can't get out unless your medical professional so obviously this is the biggest story in the world and equally obvious if there's this gigantic virus problem we don't have any kind of cure for it we don't have shots for it so I think it's obvious that the United States government would shut down all travel between China and the United States now I haven't seen any stories on that but it's obvious right I mean there can't be this gigantic you know deadly virus in China that's breaking out they can't contain it it's fairly

[2:16]

they can't contain it it's fairly obvious that the the US government has closed all travel between China and the United States but I wanted to read you the official the official statement that's so if you'll bear with me let me find this on CNN looking for the official statement from our government about how they're closing all travel with China to shut down that virus okay I don't see it on CNN cnn.com but I know maybe they're just focusing on the the impeachment or something so let's go to Fox News because obviously it's the biggest story of the country and obviously our government is shutting down all travel I mean that would be the only way to keep us safe let's see Fox News no no it doesn't seem to be on Fox News either which which would suggest that it's not happening I may have warned you in the title to this

[3:18]

may have warned you in the title to this periscope that there would be some extra cursing this would be the point of the extra cursing so if you don't want to hear any extra cursing this would be the time to turn down your sound because there's a gigantic virus outbreak in China that's deadly and as far as I can tell from my major news sources the government of the United States has not yet shut down all travel with China here it comes are you kidding me are you kidding me we have not shut down all travel with China are you kidding me give me a reason any reason this is impeachable right here now maybe there's a reason maybe there's a reason but tell us the reason if you're not going to cut down if you're not

[4:19]

not going to cut down if you're not going to shut down all all traffic with China right now until you figure out what's going on you owe us a reason alright government give us a reason or shut it down otherwise what the hell are you doing so China so far if you connect with our technology to China's technology what do you get you get a spy virus and and they steal your intellectual property so we can't connect to them technologically because they'll just steal our and send us spyware we can't have travel with them because they'll send us their bat virus we can't have any kind of economic agree with your agreement with them because apparently they cheat so is there anything that we can do with China that isn't toxic oh

[5:20]

we can do with China that isn't toxic oh okay sure we can at least accept mail from China that's safe no it's not their mail is full of fentanyl we can't take their mail we can't connect to them with a goddamn technology we can't let their people travel here because they're filled with their bad virus and we can't even do business with them the country is completely toxic we need to decouple let's just decoupled
all right that's enough of that topic but seriously we need to shut down the travel like right now let me give you a little update on Twitter and Google + and the questions about some alleged

[6:21]

and the questions about some alleged shadow Bannock I have a new hypothesis for why Twitter seems to sometimes for some accounts in some situations you can follow people and then be unfollowed if your fault if you're following this story you know that ambassador Grinnell his account many people lots and lots of people including me reported following him multiple times only to find later that they had somehow been unfollowed so I did contact Jack Dorsey I was asking about it and he's looking into it and I don't have an official answer yet he asks some follow-up questions that I answered so Twitter's looking into it but while they were looking into it and as I mentioned before this tick tock app that is owned by a Chinese company can under some situations ask for permission to control your Twitter account I guess if you're going to post your tick-tock

[7:22]

if you're going to post your tick-tock videos to Twitter it needs some permissions so one of the possibilities is that there's a third-party app that's controlling your Twitter and so I looked into my Twitter permissions I'm sorry I looked into my permissions for any apps to see if it to see if I had any apps that had permission to change my Twitter account and here's the thing I would never give an app a third party app permission to control my Twitter feed I would never do that now there are a few exceptions one one is periscope itself because you know it's a twitter product so I don't have a problem with periscope being able to change my Twitter account it's all the same company and I did have HootSuite connected because HootSuite is a an app that lets you post to different social platforms but here's the surprise I had several

[8:24]

but here's the surprise I had several apps you know minor apps ones that you haven't even heard of that had Twitter permissions that I was unaware of until I checked my phone that's right a person me who would never intentionally give a third-party app access to my Twitter account had given 8 different I think there were eight of them eight different apps actually had permission to change my Twitter account if you had asked me I would have said zero because I would never consciously make that decision except in those few cases that are obviously safe but there were several on there that were just apps I tried out at one point and another now at what part in the process and what part in the process did I not see that those apps were asking for that permission because I never would have given that permission not in a million years not intentionally

[9:24]

not in a million years not intentionally so here's my new hypothesis it's third party apps so I would like to ask those of you who have had any experience of following and unfollowing anybody or or maybe even if you've been followed and unfollowed so anybody who's had the experience of having an automatic unfollow that you that was not yours check your phone and have you check I I don't remember enough to tell you but just google it had it how do you check your phone's app permissions it'll pop right up just google it you'll see the directions so if I had to if I had to rank the possibilities the the names of the apps actually don't matter because as I said it was a variety of RAD like eight different apps so you need to just check all of your permissions don't don't start with do I have those the gaps just check all the permissions

[10:25]

the gaps just check all the permissions because it's the ones that are sneaking in there that are the problem maybe so if we were to look at all the possible explanations for why Twitter seems to be performing in a way that we would not expect and had not authorized you know the one is that it's senior management of Twitter trying to influence the election personally I give that essentially zero credibility because human nature is not such that people who are already winners in other words if you're a senior management or you know you've got a ton of stock in Twitter you're a winner in the game of life I mean you've done well right it would be insane for them to collectively decide that they would risk their reputations their stock their company risk at all for for a scheme that would be so obvious to detect because we're all looking at it we can detect it we can see that you followed it and followed so

[11:25]

see that you followed it and followed so I would say the odds that Twitter management is behind it is basically zero you know I'll always allow that there's always you know anything can happen you could never put really zero and anything but it's close to zero the other possibility is that it's some kind of a bug I think that's also close to zero because it's so obvious it's just so obvious that I would Twitter not know about it how would they develop a product that's this ubiquitous but it couldn't do the simplest thing technology can do a little handshake between the app and the central servers that says did you get my did you get my signal yes I did okay now I'm done simplest thing you could do in technology so it's that it's not a bug and almost certainly is not a senior management but having seen now how many third-party apps could have done this I would say the odds are something like 80 percent that there are bad actors from

[12:27]

percent that there are bad actors from the outside or messing with your Twitter feed so that's my current my current speculation current hypothesis I'll keep you updated I'm trying to schedule a discussion with Google about my D monetization on YouTube maybe I'll talk to them Monday I'll update you on that as it happens all right you've heard of course about the FISA warrant story apparently the Department of Justice looked at all the FISA warrants regarding this Russia collusion stuff and found that at least the last two because there were several renewals the last two renewals they found were not based were not legitimate basically they did not have a basis in law now it was the last - what does that tell you well unfortunately we have at least two hypotheses that are reasonable one

[13:30]

hypotheses that are reasonable one hypothesis is that it was always biased and and it it was rigged so one possibility is that bad actors were using this process and abusing it and they were using it to spy on the president and his team and it was all bad actors that's possible the other possibility that cannot be eliminated based on what we know is that once you get a little bit invested in your plan it's hard to change so it could be that people people were just a little bit stuck in confirmation bias there was a little bit of inertia going on that's you know a sprinkle of incompetence it would be easy to imagine that because the other ones have been renewed that people just let their guard down they just let their guard down well the last ones got renewed here's another one black assign it do the judges read every word of everything they sign you hope so

[14:34]

word of everything they sign you hope so but probably not if it's renewal if it's a renewal you probably asked in it don't you if you say well I've approved this thing three times in the past it looks like it's just more of them the same people I trusted last time say the sign it maybe give it a cursory review get on to other business so I don't think you can eliminate the possibility of incompetence but certainly if you if you believe that there are bad actors it's good it's going to lead you in that direction the president very cheekily retweeted a meme that I think came out a few years ago that showed him standing as a painting they showed him standing next to a window inside Trump Tower one assumes with a Barack Obama on the outside of the window looking in so in other words there was a meme about Obama or his administration wiretapping or spying on the president so rather than

[15:34]

spying on the president so rather than that at any commentary he just he just tweets the humorous meme which I thought was kind of brilliant because it makes everybody talk about what it means anytime you can get people to talk themselves into the thing you wanted to say as opposed to saying it to them it's good it's more persuasive to get somebody to you know to work on the idea and come up with it on their own based on a few clues if you can get them to do that because that that really makes them focus and that's what he wants people to do focus on his point of view that he was right all along that the government members of the government were spying on him and his campaign at this point at this point you can just say it's true right I mean it's two movies on one screen so some people are gonna say it's not true but I think we can say yeah that's true a funny story coming out well it's funny even though the topic is not funny so there's nothing funny about discrimination

[16:36]

nothing funny about discrimination except maybe this story so let me say that again there's nothing funny about discrimination except maybe this there was a man at African American man who is suing a Michigan Bank for racial discrimination after he says the staff refused to deposit a settlement check from his other racial discrimination case so the story as it's reported is that an african-american man successfully sued somebody doesn't matter who for racial discrimination at one and he got a big check so he takes his big check into a bank and they they look at him and they look at the check and they think no this doesn't fit they called the police on him now when I say there's nothing funny about discrimination except this story which is kind of funny because first of all you want a bunch of money so in the end he's kind of a winner he's getting

[17:36]

end he's kind of a winner he's getting some attention his you know I'm sure he cares that his topic is getting attention too so he's kind of a winner and he's also a fighter I like the fact that he's a fighter and he fought the first case anyone happened to get fighting it again I kind of like this guy I don't know the details of the case you know so I'm not going to presume who's guilty or innocent but I like a fighter but here's the thing the story as it's told is that it's a story of discrimination being so bad that this one guy runs into two major examples of it one after another and that's entirely possible so it might be that the way this was reported this is exactly accurate there's so much discrimination in the country there's sometimes maybe not often but there's enough that sometimes it'll you'll have two really bad cases right in a row maybe that's what happened but there are at least two

[18:37]

what happened but there are at least two other possibilities two possibilities the other possibility is it's fake news because if it's in that category of news where by its nature you should doubt it's true right because it's a little too clean it's a little too perfect it's a little too the edges are wrapped up or just a little too nicely on this story so I'm not saying it's a fake news I'm saying that the nature of the story fits into the category of stories that are probably fake news at least 80 of the time that doesn't mean hisses I'm just saying it's in that category where you should just automatically put a filter on and say maybe maybe but it's in that category it's a little too perfect here's the other possibility a third possibility and again I'm not saying that there was not two cases of grotesque discrimination it's entirely

[19:38]

grotesque discrimination it's entirely possible if not likely that that's what happened but here's the other possibility maybe it's him maybe it's him now I'm not saying it is but I think it's funny that that possibility is not considered there's that one of my favorite comics for a long ago was a guy sitting in jail and he was saying to his bunkmate he goes 17 arrests 17 convictions maybe it's me I've been laughing about that for years because it's it's a joke about how the last thing we consider is that it's awesome because it's always something else it's other people and what I say it's maybe it's him I'm not saying it is I'm just saying that if you're looking at all the possibilities of the story one you can't rule out is that he looks suspicious not because he's black but because some people just look suspicious am i right you know who else looks

[20:40]

am i right you know who else looks suspicious me it I have a lifelong problem that I looked suspicious I can't tell you how many times I've been accused of things I haven't done all the time and I think I think the reason that people regard me as suspicious is because they think I'm clever enough to get away with stuff and if you're clever enough to get away with stuff well maybe you're doing it now so in my own way I'm one of those people who has gone through life continually being questioned about my my honesty or my credibility when I'm actually being honest and totally credible I am one of those personalities that people don't trust for whatever reason you know I hope you do and I hope I've created enough of a track record that I have credibility on here but I'm just saying that in my interpersonal life it's common for people to imagine I've

[21:41]

it's common for people to imagine I've done all manner of bad things what I haven't so one possibility is that there's something about this individual that has nothing to do with his color that made that the teller at the bank say there's something wrong with this situation it has nothing to do with his ethnicity so that's possible anyway but good luck to the individual involved I do not I do not mean to suggest anything beyond the what the story is all sad that he got discriminated against twice he's a fighter good for him yeah I hope he fights and wins this if the story is is accurately reported let's talk about Joe Rogan Joe Rogan has lit the lit the Twittersphere on fire by the saying recently I guess on his podcast that he'll he says quote I think I'll probably vote for Bernie and here's the reasoning he offered he's been insanely consistent his entire life he's basically been saying the same thing Ben

[22:43]

basically been saying the same thing Ben Ben for the same thing his whole life and that in and of itself is a very powerful structure to operate from what's that mean what does it mean to say the consistency is a powerful structure to operate from well I would put a different word on it I would call it authenticity because I think that's what both Trump and Bernie have in common in a weirdly different way but there's something about the fact that Bernie is always Bernie that makes you trust that least he has good intentions and at least he believes what he says which is a lot right so when Joe Rogan says that you know that alone that consistency and and I do believe that all of the people running for president actually have the the best interest of the country in mind I really do believe that I don't think you put that much work and risk into running for president until you've really bought off on the idea that you're trying to help the country I just don't

[23:44]

trying to help the country I just don't in our system I don't think you get that far unless you really believe that so I believe birdie believes that as well as all the other candidates so how did that work out for Joe Rogan well not so well you would think you would think that backing Bernie would be the safest thing he could ever do right because if you want the social justice warriors to be happy well I'll pick a Democrat right safest thing you could do in this country if you're a public figure and you're in the entertainment field by far the safest thing you could do for your career your own personal safety probably pick a Democrat that did not work out as well as he may have hoped because it turns out week is now being accused of being a white nationalist trans folk now you can't even win there's just no way to win it is a now obviously if anybody

[24:46]

to win it is a now obviously if anybody has spent any time watching Joe Rogan he's definitely not a white nationalist or even close right he's not even in the zip code of a white nationalist so this this accusation to guess so this is one you know idiots on Twitter saying with this stuff the this is the most grotesquely defamatory it's just it's just horrible just horrible that he would be slimed by that kind of accusation now the trans folk thing at least there's a little meat on that and essentially he's talked about athletes now that there's a risk to female athletes if there's a larger somebody was born with male body parts and testosterone could be its you know blah blah blah that the smaller person can get hurt so that has targeted him for you know for abuse from the left so he kind of kind of created a position where he can't win but let me pile on a

[25:48]

where he can't win but let me pile on a little bit may I pull up sure why not so I love Joe Rogan personally and as a mentor to him and professional one of the best people in the world one of the best entertainers in the world nothing negative to say about him but but I don't think he's an economist was that fair to say you know if I said that to Joe Rogan in front of them I said Joe you know I understand why you're backing Bernie but would you agree that you do not have a deep understanding of economics I think you say yes would that be a unfair statement that's not an insult it's not an ad hominem this is same thing I said about Greta and I'm not insulting Greta you know tunberg on climate change it's not an insult it is simply a statement that some people have experience in different

[26:49]

people have experience in different domains and I think that well I completely appreciate it in fact I've said the same thing that Bernie's or thoth entik personality is much to be my admired on many levels I admire it I have mad respect for Bernie for that reason but it's still an economic decision isn't it I mean no matter what you think of Bernie's character the ultimate decision of Bernie versus not Bernie is really an economic decision and I don't know how you could make a decision about voting for Bernie without a background or at least enough background on the you know the the the basic concepts of economics so I feel sorry for Joe Rogan I'm sure he doesn't feel sorry for himself that I doubt that's in his in his mental vocabulary to feel sorry for himself I get the sense that that's just an unproductive

[27:51]

sense that that's just an unproductive feeling that he would be unlikely to experience because he's mentally very tough or so it appears we can't read his mind but if he ever thought that backing Bernie was going to be the the safe harbor I don't know if you thought that but if he did think that I guess he found out otherwise here's another story I'll be talking about it'd be if he's been in a minute in a minute did you hear about the pill okay pillowcase rapist so there was somebody named the pillowcase rapist because he would put a pillowcase over his head that many times and he was a serial rapist there were lots of unsolved rapes and he was just caught they're pretty sure they caught him because his son got in some legal trouble and they got the son's DNA and as soon as they ran the son's DNA through the database Boop they found that it matched all it matched close enough to be a close

[28:52]

matched close enough to be a close relative of whoever was the actual rapist and then it was it was a simple matter to find out that that guy's father also had some I think some prior criminal record in that domain and then it was a matter of easy matter to pick him up test this DNA and they got it here's my point to all this the we are at a point right now we don't have to wait for anything we already have everything we need and this is going to happen guarantee it a hundred percent of serial murderers and serial rapists will now be caught probably in the next 12 months think about that we now have the technology that if we have some DNA and I would say that in the case of a serial anything you're always going to have DNA right serial rapist you're gonna get some DNA somewhere serial murderer you're gonna get some DNA and I guaranteed you're gonna get some if they keep doing that

[29:52]

gonna get some if they keep doing that kind of crime you're always gonna get some so in the next 12 months thanks to companies like auth room that can do this kind of thing they can look at a database and find out if you're related to anybody and then track you down 2020 is the year think about this this is enormous 2020 is the year that a hundred percent of serial violent crimes get solved all of them every one of them I think I don't think we'll have a single one left on the books by the end of this year let me just think about that that's mind blowing you know I predicted years ago in my book the Dilbert future that all crime would be solved in our lifetime and here's the first concrete example all serial crimes violence will be solved all of them if you're tracking my predictions and you should here's one

[30:55]

predictions and you should here's one that's starting to shape up how many of you have laughed at me ha ha ha cartoon boy stick to Garfield as they like to say what I said that Carla Harris would be the Democratic nominee ha ha ha you're so wrong Scott because of all the reasons and then she suspended her campaign double ha ha ha Scott ha ha ha you're so wrong she's not even in the race anymore and then I said hold hold hold because she has another path to the White House and that path is now being talked about by more people than me including the New York Times including the Sacramento Bee that are now talking up senator Harris has been weighing an endorsement of Joe Biden oh that's interesting Carla Harris is now it's being reported

[31:58]

Carla Harris is now it's being reported in the New York Times the qumola is considering endorsing Joe Biden huh interesting isn't it and Sacramento Bee reports that they interviewed Joe Biden and they asked him about picking Camille Harris as a VP and he said would he consider it he said he'd consider for anything she wants including vice president he would consider her for anything she wants including vice president now if you were to looking at cobble Harrison on her own you'd say now so strong in fact that's why she had to suspend her campaign this compared to the other Democratic candidates she didn't quite have the the necessary parts but she's a really good compliment for Joe Biden meaning that she's tiptoed into the progressive field a little bit but not so much that she can't pull back and

[32:58]

so much that she can't pull back and become a little bit more mainstream and still have a little bit of credentials in that progressive field because we like people who used to be something and then changed their mind even though we say we didn't because we at least know that they've lived in both heads they lived in you know they used to be a Democrat now the Republican that's an advantage I would say is somebody who's lived in both worlds they've got a little appreciation we treated it as if it's flip-flopping and as if it's a fault but probably not now the reason that she's a good complement to Biden is that Biden's opinions will be the focus and she would just be a supporter and as a justice supporter she's not going to say too much that it isn't just well Biden is saying and so there won't be much ammunition to go after her for her own opinions nor does she need to be especially charismatic remember I told you that it's going to be very hard for Biden to pick a running mate if he gets nominated because he's got to pick a running mate that's a worse version of

[33:58]

running mate that's a worse version of himself because that's what the that's the best look because you want to think oh the top person is definitely the top person but you've got an emergency spares a little smaller it can get you 50 miles that's all you need just a good small tire emergency spare that won't take you all around the world but it'll get you to the to the service station Carla is the exact antidote to Biden she's young and she's experienced she's a senator she knows where all the parts are so she knows how the the town works her weaknesses will be somewhat hidden by being a vice presidential candidate but her strengths will be magnified because every time you see them or talking you say okay you did pick a woman he did pick a person of color check-check we have less to worry about now you say to yourself but Scott Scott Scott Carmel Harris is not popular in the in the black community

[35:00]

the in the black community does it matter it doesn't matter because Biden is Biden we'll give her what she needs at the same time that she's giving him what he needs which is the emergency spare tire in case he fails and he's unlikely to even if he were to win which is deeply unlikely he is very unlikely to go for a second term because of age who's the obvious next candidate if he doesn't go for a second term his vice president pick if he picks the right vice president she would be established now the the best part of this is the Carmel and Biden have the most endorsements from establishment Democrats which means the establishment likes them and I believe that word has the most connections to the Hillary Clinton machine if you will so it looks like Hillary Clinton will be the shadow president under the scenario that Biden wins and has word as a vice president that would bets basically put Hillary

[36:01]

that would bets basically put Hillary Clinton back in the White House without having to run because of the chain of influence all right let's talk about so I put that out there if you're tracking my predictions that would be the one of the most wild predictions I've made yeah that's shaping up to be more likely than you think that's that's more likely than you think here's another one do you remember that's from the start of this whole impeachment business I kept saying that there was one defense that I'm not hearing from even the supporters of the president that needs to be the defense and what I said was that you need to establish that there was a national interest in looking into the Biden verismo situation and did you did you know how frustrated I was getting because for weeks you know I don't know how long seemed like weeks I kept saying you just

[37:04]

seemed like weeks I kept saying you just have to say there was a national interest and you're done that's it that's the whole story was there national interest yes if it's yes it doesn't matter there it's also good for the president so here's what's developing so as I started out being I think just about the only person who was saying that and now we see that it's Lindsey Graham's primary argument so Lindsey Graham is saying you know we don't want to call witnesses because we don't think we need them but if we did the central question is going to be did the president have a legitimate reason to look into burr yzma and Biden and and the there's a suggestion yes on top of that the Democrats own defense or not defense but the Democrats own lawyers have made the case that President Trump believed what they call conspiracy theories about Ukraine they say he believed that Ukraine was you know mad

[38:06]

believed that Ukraine was you know mad interferes in the elections that my friends should be the end of the impeachment because all you need to know is the evidence that the Democrats themselves have introduced all you have to do is accept it accept their case don't accept you even the Republicans case if you accept the Democrats own framing for this it's over because the Democrats have suggested strongly and and based on actual evidence of the president's conversations with real people who report them there is real reporting from direct evidence people that the president seemed as far as they could tell to believe that you that Ukraine was legitimately something to be looked into now as long as the president believed that to be the case does it matter if it's true it doesn't because the entire case revolves around the president's

[39:06]

case revolves around the president's intentions and if it was true that he legitimately believed as though as the Democrats themselves are reporting this is not even the Republicans case this is the Democrats case against him they say he believes the conspiracy theories about Ukraine were done if he believed it their own case that's what he said that's what they say that's all you need because he could be wrong and not get impeached it is not impeachable to make an assumption which is wrong it is not impeachable to to believe something that it turns out to not be true but beyond that if we have witnesses you can guarantee the hunter biden's right on the top of the list so Lindsey Graham has focused on this by far he has the best framing for how this whole thing should be run the best framing outside of Alvin Dershowitz who says you don't even need to talk about the details

[40:07]

even need to talk about the details because it's just you know doesn't meet the constitutional test on the surface so the details are irrelevant you don't even need to get that far but you saw I did a big tweet thread at the same point saying that the the main question is whether brie Simone was worth looking into from the national interest you saw that Rush Limbaugh or I told you rush limbaugh did a extended segment talking about my tweets and talking about the the same point that there was national interest to look into this stuff and now we see in the New York Times they've printed in an opinion piece by Josh Blackman a constitutional law professor at South Texas College of Law in Houston and he basically explains that that it's completely acceptable in our system to have a president do something that's in his own mind primarily for re-election that that's not impeachable as long as

[41:10]

that that's not impeachable as long as there's also an argument that has something to do with the National good it doesn't matter if it's ninety ten you know ninety percent of it is for my own good or 99 percent of it's for my own good doesn't matter doesn't even matter if the candidate thinks a hundred percent of it is only for their self-interest so long as there's also a national argument and there is there is a genuine national concern so the new york times of course is an opinion piece that doesn't mean that the new york times editorial board or anybody else agrees with it but they printed it so now you're seeing that the the weight of argument is is shifting in that direction so if you're trying to determine if I'm causing the simulation to change or simply predicting it well hard to tell is that I just leave that out there and even Jay Sekulow of Sekulow has has said that that question is now relevant because he said that the

[42:12]

is now relevant because he said that the the Biden's were now fair game in the trial because the Democrats have quote opened the door so in legal terms if one side brings up a topic that makes it fair game for the other side to discuss it now you could argue that they shouldn't have brought it up but they did so now the Democrats have opened that question of whether the Briz and the Biden thing was appropriate which means if they want more witnesses they're gonna have witnesses on that topic and and also senator Josh Hawley Republican in Missouri is also echoing the same point he says it's now clear we absolutely must call hunter Biden and we probably need to call Joe Biden so you see that the president's defense is sort of move toward that now the other day yesterday you think some people push back a little bit because I said that the president's lawyers were very good they're excellent lawyers I said that

[43:13]

they're excellent lawyers I said that they have so far botched the defense well let me clarify that they're not done with the defense so one cannot say that they have botched the defense like as a statement of the end because we're closer to the beginning than the end when the president's defense seriously kicks into gear I think they're just going to demolish the Democrats what I said in terms of it botched so far I'm gonna stick to that because now that you've seen the the Lindsey Graham framing and now you know the cyclos framing and Josh Holly's framing my framing rush limbaugh you see you see a lot of people thinking about this and watching saying you know maybe the focus should have been that you that one question and if I said to you tell me the president's defense all right if you've watched if you watch the opening statements from the president's lawyers what's their defense I actually don't

[44:14]

what's their defense I actually don't know I actually don't know do you if I said what is what do you remember from what the Democrats are saying about the president you probably remembered because they've repeated as so many times they're focusing on it they're they're withholding the information because he he tried the president tried to force a foreign country country to interfere with our elections you know what the Democrats are saying right you know they're saying he used it to dig up dirt and that they're withholding documents that's all you know all the details the public doesn't know it's just too confusing but you know that now do it the other way what's the what's the president's defense not for me but what's the president's defense as so far expressed by his by his defenders in in the impeachment I don't know I watched it and I actually don't know I think it was something like

[45:16]

don't know I think it was something like your accusations don't don't have merit I don't know but here's what it should have been it should have been there's only one relevant question did the president have a legitimate interest in looking to Biden in Brisbane the Democrats say he did have a good reason that's really the end of the case so we yield our time to the Democrats our entire defense will be five minutes that he had a good reason to look into it and the Democrats have acknowledged that because they say you know he believed that the something there that's what they say we believe it too so we're all on the same page we all believe that the president thought there was something legitimate in terms of the national justice should be looked at that's it I wouldn't say anything else I wouldn't defend my presidents you know confidentiality with their with their advisors and all that stuff it's all

[46:17]

advisors and all that stuff it's all important but if you're trying to convince the public you need to keep it simple and I don't think that's happened so I expect them to focus in on that point all right let's talk about Schiff and his presentation I'm going to start with a positive and I said this before Schiff is like the Energizer Bunny I have never seen shift look tired have you have you ever seen him look tired now I think he's pure evil but man the guy's got energy you know he's like he's like a pitbull and I said before I'd recently learned that he also was a he runs marathons and triathletes and stuff it turns out this ship is like a really good athlete I'm actually very impressed and that's a good role model and I don't want to lose that good part just because the other part is pure evil so was it I think CNN had this headline shift gets

[47:18]

think CNN had this headline shift gets choked up during emotional speech what what what theater were you watching I didn't see shift get choked up I saw him pretending to be choked up do you think Schiff has really choked up about any of this stuff do you think he even believes this case I don't think there's a slight case that even believes his own case so it's hilarious that he fooled anybody into thinking he had genuine emotion in this that was not genuine emotion I was just acting so I've been a mocking shift for his many cases of loser think as as I described in my best-selling book loser think all the bad ways of thinking and arguing and he uses all Ingram pointed out the mind-reading so he makes lots of assumptions about what the strangers were thinking in her secretive thoughts yeah he also uses laundry lists persuasion which is bad

[48:20]

laundry lists persuasion which is bad persuasion because if you don't have one good reason you have to you have to give ten and it makes you think well there's no one good reason but if you put all ten together so he's doing laundry list persuasion mind reading he's doing half pinions the half pinion is where you show one side now because this is a a domain in which people are just being advocates of course they're only doing their side but in terms of loser think showing one side of a decision is irrational it's not irrational in terms of persuasion but I'll talk about that he shows the failure of imagination how many times have you seen shifts say what other explanation is there except this well if you can't think of another explanation for the same the fact you're saying it could be because there's only one explanation it could also be because you're not good at thinking up alternate explanations it could be just a failure of your own imagination if you can't

[49:22]

of your own imagination if you can't think of more than one reason to explain the facts you see the problem might be on your end you can't tell the difference they look exactly the same then of course confirmation bias you know he acts like every every piece of evidence fits together in this big mosaic but in fact that's not how life works lots of times is just confirmation bias now people ask me why are you saying that Schiff was winning yesterday at the same time you're saying he's using all this loser thinking it's all just irrational babble those two things are not incompatible when I talk about persuasion the things that matter the most is what messages are getting through how much time are you spending on it and what was that message he's spending a lot of time making at least the people watching the news focus on what he wants you to focus on that is a gigantic persuasion win the fact that in the process of doing that he's using

[50:23]

in the process of doing that he's using exclusively almost loser think there's lies there stuff taking into context the the the videos he Sheldon are just lies they've just taken out of context to reverse their meaning is he's irrational he's reading minds does any of that matter not really because my book before loser think was when Bingley persuasion in a world where facts don't matter what he's trying to do is not be illogical he's not trying to he's not trying to convince a judge or a real jury who might try really hard to concentrate on facts he's trying to persuade the public and you don't need good thinking to persuade the public you just need your message to be repeated a lot focused on have an emotional content that's about it so his his completely irrational loser think arguments are very effective because of how much time he's getting

[51:23]

because of how much time he's getting and the fact that we haven't heard yet the rebuttal I would expect the situation to reverse when the defense is doing it's full push he's going to get annihilated Don Lemon has a little legal problem you may know this it's an older story but it's bubbling up again I'm not sure why but there's a man who's suing Don Lemon CNN host for allegedly a sexual assault yeah I don't want to give you the details of it but let's let's just say something creepy happened at a bar drinking was involved you know but nobody took their clothes off I don't want to get into the details but it's a it's it's a creepy accusation if it happened now of course CNN is quite famous for me two stories as really the entire press is famous for that there's a lot of them

[52:25]

is famous for that there's a lot of them but the question for CNN is when do you believe the accuser because the accusers got a story that on the surface sounds pretty credible I think there were witnesses I think there were multiple witnesses actually now if those multiple witnesses are saying the same thing and that's the early reporting that they are why does C and then keep him on the payroll it's a good question right now I'm very much in favor of innocent until proven guilty so if he worked for me if I were his boss I would definitely keep him on the payroll and I would also have kept everyone else on the payroll who was accused of things while the trial where the process is working its way through but here's all I want to say about that if if C and n ever did decide to cancel Don Lemon let's say that lawsuit went someplace would we ever see this headline CN n

[53:29]

would we ever see this headline CN n sours on lemon that's all that's that's all reason I'm telling you this story because I don't care too much about it other other than will we ever see Fox News with this headline CN n sours on lemon well I hope so well no I don't I don't hope that anything bad happens to him I just hope if something does that we get a funny headline in in it but I don't wish anything bad on anybody all right so there was an interesting poll from national Emerson College poll and they asked supporters of the various Democratic candidates if they'd be willing to support any Democratic nominee if their preferred one doesn't get picked so at the top of list was Elizabeth Warren so 90% of the people who want Warren to be the nominee also say that they would support well whoever gets nominated that's good Biden said 87 percent Buddha judge 86 so they're clustered toward the top and around that 90 percent so what does that

[54:32]

around that 90 percent so what does that tell you well let's keep going so Bloomberg 7080 sort of in the middle of the pack and then at the bottom it gets interesting Sanders only 54% of the people who say they want Sanders as their first choice are willing to pick just any old Democrat if it's not him only had only a half and Yang's that exactly half yang supporters say that only half of them would would support the Democrat if it's not yang half only half of them so what's that tell you what does that tell you about who would be the stronger candidate well I think this is sort of upside down from what you think if you think that the best candidate well let me put it this way I'll go right to the punch line the reason that yang has only 50% of the people who say they want him to be president would be willing to support any democrat is clearly because they're

[55:34]

any democrat is clearly because they're not Democrats in other words yang and Sanders are picking up a whole bunch of support from people who don't maybe consider themselves quite totally Democrat they might be independents in some cases they might actually be Republicans who just happened to like this one guy yang because he's you know more science-based or whatever it is so I'll tell you what this tells me that the two candidates with the biggest chance of beating Trump would be Sanders and Yang and here's why I believe that the Democrats who are just solid Democrats I just couldn't vote Democrat oh all the ones even the ones who say ninety percent of them say that they would support Warren but you know that's the first choice but 10 percent of them apparently would not support the other candidate if it's somebody else I don't believe that I believe that something like a hundred percent of the people who support Warren probably 100 percent of

[56:35]

support Warren probably 100 percent of them will still no matter what vote Democratic because the the alternative is Trump right but what about those Sanders and yang people were about half of the people said they wouldn't support the other Democrat well if you did pick Sanders or yang doesn't that suggest you would pick up a lot of independents and Republicans that you couldn't get with any other candidate am I wrong so I feel like I need to be checked on the logic of that but my logic is Sanders and yang are clearly signaling that they can pick up people who are not Democrats because if they were solid Democrats half of them would not abandon their candidate just because another Democrat got elected I feel like this poll is telling us as clearly as possible I might be wrong about this I feel like I'm not quite confident in my opinion on this I feel like it's saying yangon Sanders are the ones that could be Trump right um

[57:37]

ones that could be Trump right um there's a study that says one-third of household food is wasted this is important because I've been saying forever that the way to balance the budget is to figure out and lower the cost of living a high-quality life now do you know why a third of the food in American households is wasted well variety reasons right but one of the big reasons given is that you have to drive to get the food in our system you have to get in the car you got a planet and you go and drive and get some food and what does that caused you to do what causes you to buy more food than you need today because you don't want to drive every day so you buy a bunch of food some of it goes bad before you eat the stuff that you like the most so there's something about your food being far away from where you want to eat it that causes a third of it to be wasted there are other factors so that probably doesn't explain the whole third but that's that's the hypothesis for why

[58:37]

but that's that's the hypothesis for why it's so easy and it was said look I saw this in the context of how to design a proper future city where your food is close to you so you just walk outside so so let's say it's 4:30 in the afternoon and you want to eat dinner at a six you just walk outside 10 minutes away there's a market you grab a bag full of fresh food and you go eat what you bought today so if you designed the way people live to be more efficient you could cut their food costs by third by third and they'd be not only just as happy they would be happier because the the food that they did he would be fresher so I I think there's a gigantic opportunity to lower the national debt because if you can lower the cost of living in general that all of the people who need a little extra help won't need as much help and that's where most of our money is going here's an interesting little signal of

[59:39]

here's an interesting little signal of things to come I talked about this before but I'm going to add a point to it so I talked about how the president agreeing to plant to be part of the trillion tree planting to combat climate change and the fact that he recently said it wasn't a hoax strongly suggests that the president is sort of migrating toward the center the center being you know that climate change is enough to worry about we don't know everything about everything maybe we can't predict the future to accurately maybe the maybe the alarm is too high what is something worried about so you can see the president shifting toward the middle now I said that before but we also see Democrats starting to embrace nuclear power especially the newer types that are they're safer generation four it's coming down the pike if we can develop it quickly enough doesn't melt down because it's built so it can't and they eats existing nuclear waste as its

[1:00:42]

they eats existing nuclear waste as its fuel in some cases so you're watching you're watching two things happening you saw two highly polarized camps you know AOC is saying it's the end of the world we're all gonna die Trump originally saying that's all hoax completely opposites but every time there's a new story that says the temperatures of the highest they've been or whatever it gets a little more convincing that something's happening whether it's man-made or partly man-made or not but there is some general agreement that the temperatures look like they're going up and it looks like Trump is sort of drifting toward the middle which is absolutely the smartest thing you should do politically forget about the science politically no brainer politically drifting toward the middle is exactly what you want to do because that's such a big issue and it's going to be a big issue for the election so but you're so you've seen both sides drifting toward the middle I think it's because we're now recognizing

[1:01:44]

think it's because we're now recognizing a common enemy it's the difference between the two sides of thinking that the other is the enemy which is where we've been right the green New Deal people are saying you republicans are the enemy because you're gonna get us all killed and the Republicans are saying you green New Deal people are the enemy because you get a ruin our economy and get us all killed but it feels like this this gradual move to the center is because both sides are finally realizing there's a common enemy the temperature now I'm not going to get into the debate and what's real and what's not I'm just talking about the politics of it then it's drifting toward the middle and here's another sign of it there was one of the articles on Fox News which famously is pro Trump and that's the important point so Fox News is a very Pro Trump entity has this headline did Trump have a change of heart over climate change policy it talks about on

[1:02:45]

climate change policy it talks about on the 5 Greg Gutfeld was talking about this the same topic and noting that the president seems because of the trillions replanting it seems he's softened on his position moving toward the middle a little bit here's the interesting part there was nothing in this article there was negative about climate change it was just straight up reporting that you know the this is what the five said and this is what the president did now I feel as if a year ago that would not have looked the same I feel as if Fox News would have said something a little more skeptical sounding because it's readership there's certainly many of them written that in that camp so it's looking to me like there's something happening there now as you know Minority Leader McCarthy is working on a plan for energy and clean climate those two things are

[1:03:48]

and clean climate those two things are really the same topic and we might see some good stuff coming out of there and so we're definitely seeing a movement on the Republican side toward accepting at least the risk of climate change so that's a big deal here's another little thing that's bubbling up apparently the White House has invited Israel's prime minister and his main political rivals to Washington this is weird isn't it so the White House has invited you know Netanyahu but also his main political rivals the people who disagree with them to meet with them in Washington to talk about a potential Palestinian peace plan makes sense to me because if you can't get Israel to agree on the plan you know internally well you're done right so step one get the Israelis on roughly the same page so that there there's at least one less thing to worry about before you even talk to anybody else why are they

[1:04:51]

even talk to anybody else why are they doing that now I think maybe it's because conditions are changing and there are apparently massive hundreds and thousands of people protesting in Iraq to get the u.s. out and we've said at least preliminarily we've said no they're not leaving so and also you know you're up to date on everything with Iran and we'd like to have some kind of a a nuke deal with Iran that actually did prevent them from getting nuclear weapons which we don't have now here's what I think and they're also talking about the White House has delayed a few times they're their big peace plan ideas for the palestinian-israeli situation but that maybe they're starting to ramp up again because they wouldn't they wouldn't call Israel in to a meeting if they weren't serious about trying to ramp it up again here's what's interesting look what we have to offer now now if you believe

[1:05:53]

have to offer now now if you believe that Iran is the the biggest influence I'm the Palestinians and let's say Hezbollah and the anti-israel forces in general the proxies what's different well Solomon a is no longer on the playing field so the the main military guy who is causing the main military problems is now off the chessboard and because Iran did that you know semi fake attack they've said well we're done retaliating and as far as I know and maybe the reporting is not good on this yet but as far as I know they have stuck to calling you know winding not winding down but at the moment the proxies that you would expect to be active don't seem extra active I mean I'm sure that there always be some missiles lobbed and toward our allies or us but it looks like something in Iran is different there at their economy is on the brink so they're probably more flexible than

[1:06:53]

so they're probably more flexible than ever at the same time Iraq's citizens at least a lot of them seem to want us to leave what this creates is for the first time all of the variables have fell into place for a big deal and it goes like this and you know of course the u.s. is not going to offer this unless it's the last thing in order to get a peace deal we would need a ran to stand down from its proxies stop supporting you know terror you would you would need a ran to agree to negotiate in some kind of a deal that more teeth in return for you know sanctions coming off their economy but here's the big one and this asset just got created out of nothing it might be that what we have to negotiate is leaving Iraq which we want to do anyway the president has created a situation in which he can say I got something to

[1:07:54]

which he can say I got something to trade here's something to trade how about we get out of the Middle East would Iran consider themselves victorious if they got the United States military out of the middle or at least reduced his footprint to something something manageable Iran would actually call that a victory wouldn't it and I think it would be I think they could legitimately say it was a major victory if they got to the u.s. out of the Middle East at least in substantial ways in Iraq anyway I think that that's a deal under the right circumstances we might be willing to make because we want to leave anyway but we don't want to leave until it's a good idea to leave so I'm thinking that we've never had this situation before where Iran is presumably desperate for a deal because their economy is on the brink we have something to give which is us leaving Iraq which doesn't cost us much

[1:08:56]

leaving Iraq which doesn't cost us much which is the ultimate deal situation you want a situation where somebody can give up something that's the key to the deal but the thing they're giving up didn't cost them much so they so it's possible to give it up it's possible for us to give up Iraq under the right conditions so and then the other thing that's the right conditions is that you've got a dealmaker as a president and everybody recognizes that even though everybody in the Middle East understands that this president will make a deal it's not dogma he's a deal maker and that gets in their heads and that I think that that actually makes it more likely to do a deal simply because when they think of the president they think of deal-making and we're such simple creatures that if you just say this guy's a deal maker a deal maker or a deal maker if you hear that enough what do you start thinking just uncritically you say to yourself maybe we can make a deal so just the

[1:09:57]

maybe we can make a deal so just the fact that his reputation is a deal maker greatly increases the chance that people's minds will be in deal-making mode that's a huge deal and it's invisible right it's just part of the benefit of this president is he brings that with them to every situation and it takes everybody's mind to deal-making because I think well that's that's the variable we're dealing with you
you but the other thing that's we've never had before is the strongest I think the strongest leaders we've ever had in all areas there we have some really capable leaders and I'm even talking about you know Iran I'm talking about Saudi Arabia sure sure sure we got our problems right yeah sure sure sure MBS you know yeah needs to explain why he's killing journalists but Saudi Arabia is a solid you know ally at this point and they've got a strong leader who's also a deal maker

[1:10:59]

strong leader who's also a deal maker he's willing to do with other people we're not willing to do Netanyahu obviously a deal maker Iran always dealmakers Iran surrender their deal makers so we have the most deal making solid same people we've ever had dealing probably Solomon a was the big problem there and we may be finding out that his absence makes everything better so I think I hit all of my main points here they get in ah
[Applause] all right somebody says he wasn't a journalist he was really just a spy for somebody yeah I saw the thing about the so Elizabeth Warren was to cancel student debt and a citizen confronted her and said what about all the money I paid why am I being penalized for being good at saving

[1:12:00]

being penalized for being good at saving and I would say that's a good question and it's probably why this whole student debt thing will never work all right thank you Oh people are complimenting me on my periscope today thank you I appreciate that and I will talk to you all later