Episode 787 Scott Adams: Pinnochiohontas, Iran’s Collapse, Booker Booking

Date: 2020-01-14 | Duration: 49:42

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a What’s the best nickname for Elizabeth Warren (my Twitter poll) Elizabeth Warren versus Bernie Sanders…who lied? “Imminent” doesn’t matter Peter Goodman’s NYT article on Iran’s economy The greatest, most effective persuasion reframing of all time Middle East stability has never been closer

If you would like my channel to have a wider audience and higher production quality, please donate via my startup (Whenhub.com) at this link: https://interface.my/ScottAdamsSays

> [!note] Rough Transcript
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## Transcript

[0:11]

boom boom hey everybody yeah it's time for coffee with Scott Adams luckily that's me luckily that's you now you may feel a little bit of happier today might not kick in right away but I've decided to tweak the simulation a little bit to make you happier so you'll be noticing approximately seven to eight percent greater happiness throughout the day and it'll probably be permanent but I just thought I'm gonna give you a little extra I just just cranked it up a little bit and all you need to enjoy this day to its full extent well you don't need much not really all you need is a cup or a mug or a glass a tanker challenger stein the canteen jug or flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like my coffee and join me now for the unparallel bit bit unparalleled pleasure sorry my robot lips got a little stuck there but the unparalleled pleasure in

[1:13]

there but the unparalleled pleasure in the dopamine here today the end of the day the thing that makes everything better the simultaneous it go mm-hmm simultaneity Wow some of you have been watching me experimenting with a different studio setup I've been experimenting with different technology for doing what we're doing now for now three years approximately I've built I built down four different Studios meaning four different completely different equipment setups to do this at a higher quality so far 100% failure every single thing I've done has been worse than just putting it an iPad on my desk and clipping this stupid thing to my shirt nothing's even close

[2:13]

my shirt nothing's even close now in some ways I thought the sound was maybe a little bit better or richer with the other microphones but as other people noted and I waited to see if somebody else said the same thing and by the way this is this is one of those lessons about the power of one opinion exactly one person put a note I think it was on the YouTube comments just one person said something that happened to hit me just right and changed my mind completely and that was that this this microphone I had been using it just has more character it has there's something more alive about it or more personal I don't know exactly what it is but the professional microphones seem to take some of the character away I don't know exactly how to put that but the better the quality was the worse the worse it was I don't know I can't explain it let's talk about the news I'm running a

[3:18]

let's talk about the news I'm running a poll right now on Twitter to find out what's the best nickname for Elizabeth Warren given the latest dust-up with Bernie Sanders and let me check the poll because I want to see how we're doing how we doing were doing why can't I find my poll I'm shadow banned for myself no yeah here we go so three choices I gave we're polka artists of course the president's favorite lion'll is a new entry lion Liz with a with apostrophe instead of a G on lion and then I added a new entry Pinocchio Honda's just cuz it makes you think about Pinocchio and Pocahontas and it's a funny word and you have to say it when I say Pinocchio haunt us then you need to try to repeat that at home

[4:18]

to repeat that at home were you at home saying Pinocchio haunt us
us Pinocchio haunt us it's hard to say it's fun to say that's technique if you can make somebody repeat your brand or your name your nickname in their head just because it's interesting to say I that's a winner it looks like Pocahontas is gonna win I doubt I can beat the president's naming but it was fun because there's this story in the news that Warren has accused well I'm not I'm not sure if she's done it or her campaign or supporters have done it because I don't believe she has made a public comment confirming this but Warren's people accused Bernie Sanders of telling Warren during a private meeting in December a year ago that he didn't think a woman could win against Trump now what was your first reaction when

[5:18]

now what was your first reaction when you heard of course Sanders denied that that happened so what was your first response when you saw that Bernie Sanders says here's one version of what happened in the room and Elizabeth Warren's people said here's the other version of what happened in the room what was your immediate reaction I'm gonna give one of the biggest compliments I've ever given to a politician hey ready Bernie Sanders love him or hate him for his policies has enough of a credibility and a track record that when it came to a decision of which one of those two people was just flat-out lying Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren it wasn't even close was it didn't you have the same the same reaction have you ever seen a situation where there are two national figures they've got a difference of agreement

[6:19]

they've got a difference of agreement about what is true wouldn't you normally think that either one of them could be lying isn't that isn't that it was natural thing you think well they're both national politicians they could both be lying so you don't really know but when you see Bernie Sanders you know face to face with Warren one of them is lying because they have opposite stories you know which one it is it was there any doubt in anybody's mind who was lying about this now you could maybe try to make you sound better by saying well they thought they heard it this way but there's no first of all without even without even addressing the credibility of Sanders which is high right love him or hate him I don't think there's any chance that he was lying to you I mean I seriously don't think there's any chance that birdie was telling a falsehood about that meeting I just don't zero possibility but you don't even need

[7:22]

zero possibility but you don't even need to hear birdie side of the conversation if somebody came up to you and said Bernie Sanders allegedly told Elizabeth Warren that a woman can't win the presidency what a woman just kicked Bernie's ass in the presidency Hillary Clinton beat Bernie and then got more votes than Trump do you think Bernie didn't notice that he lost to Hillary Clinton and that she got more votes no because what he was asked about it's the first thing he said the first thing he said was it's ridiculous why would I say that of course I think a woman can win he already got more votes they just happen to be you know slightly in the wrong places so if Elizabeth Warren tries to run against Trump on character how is that going to go because she just stabbed her friend in the back she just she just took out a big old knife and said hey Bernie

[8:23]

Bernie hey Bernie good old friend come over here for a second come over here okay could you turn around don't ask why just turn around for those of you listening on podcast audio only that was my impression of stabbing sounds like that how can she run against Trump on character with this in her portfolio and of course it led to articles I just tweeted one where they list them all the times that she has lied why is the garbage there's a garbage truck outside this extra loud today for some reason so this could be actually sort of a defining moment in the campaign I feel as though this should take Warren out because it feels disqualifying to run

[9:23]

because it feels disqualifying to run against this president who even his critics would have to admit he's getting a lot of stuff done right economy good blah blah so if they're running against Trump based on on his you know personality you can't run Warren against that she just took herself out of it Bernie could Bernie Sanders could still run on character now I mean he would lose for other reasons but he could run on character she can't that's that's done now let's talk about something else let's talk about imminent those of you who have been watching my periscopes who is the first person you heard say that the president should stop saying imminent because it doesn't matter it's completely irrelevant how imminent it is because if somebody has a track record of doing something every day you don't really have to ask if they're gonna do it tomorrow in fact you don't even need

[10:25]

it tomorrow in fact you don't even need to know they're gonna do it tomorrow you just had to know that they did it every day until today and there's a good chance they'll do it tomorrow that's it that's so that's the whole thing so now you've heard Bill Barr say that explicitly he said literally that the imminent part is just not important doesn't matter because his past was enough of a track record Anderson Cooper and I think the president is now saying the same thing that it doesn't matter how imminent it was
because of his track record and resume cooper pushed back on that with a little monologue I just watched a clip of it and he pushed back you said that bar and Trump saying it doesn't matter how imminent it was is wrong because it does matter it does matter and then I was listening for the reasons of why it matters I don't think I saw any I don't think I saw any reasons for why it matters has anybody heard a reason of

[11:27]

matters has anybody heard a reason of why it matters that the president said it was imminent but maybe it wasn't
doesn't matter to me all right Trump of course loves to get people talking I love how he can find the exact edge of danger but it usually usually doesn't take that extra step into now you've gone too far he goes right to the edge of what you think might be sort of too far but you're not sure and he did that again with retweeting a meme of Pelosi and Schumer wearing it was a doctorate image of them wearing Iranian garb you know with the headgear and everything and an Iranian flag behind him you know indicating that they're more with Iran than they are with the United States and of course everybody went nuts about that but it's just a Photoshop to meme every time Trump uses

[12:27]

Photoshop to meme every time Trump uses Twitter the way Twitter works best which is this it's exactly the sort of thing there's a there's a Twitter personality and then there's a real person personality and then there's a meeting the meeting the heads of state personality the Trump gets into when he plays it seriously and there's this rally personality which is more you know it'll drop some s bombs and you know some light cursing and you'll be more provocative say beat up people and stuff stuff that's not real but he plays it for laughs when he's on Twitter he just plays the best Twitter troll ever so he gets into Twitter personality forward you know retweets a meme which is the most common thing you could ever do on Twitter and the world goes nuts and we all get a laugh out of it so good time was had by home let's talk about so I ran I can't

[13:28]

home let's talk about so I ran I can't figure out how not to make things worse lately so as you know the Iranians have finally taken responsibility for shooting down that Ukraine airline and today they announced or maybe it was yesterday that they would they would take action then they would arrest let's say the announced authorities have arrested those responsible and and anyone involved ba-ba-ba-ba should be punished what exactly does that mean in Iran when when they say that the person responsible for shooting down the plane has been arrested and they'll be punished I'm a little confused because wasn't it an accident do you arrest and punish people for an accident no matter who was guilty was it the person who designed the system the person in charge or was it the person who was pushing the buttons

[14:29]

the person who was pushing the buttons you know the the the worker if you will do you kill people for making a mistake at their job correct me if I'm wrong but that's not an improvement are the people in the streets let me ask you this is there anybody protesting in the street who's saying let's kill let's punish or kill the person who made the mistake I believe that I believe there are zero people asking from that so the Iranian government has decided a harsh punishment for some poor person who probably was just trying to do with the best they could at their job and maybe it was just hard right I mean if you were in that job do you think you could have done it right I don't know I have a feeling that there were some really conflicting signals and that you could have been you could have been punished either way let's say you the person who made the choice to fire the rocket don't you

[15:31]

choice to fire the rocket don't you think that that person believed that not firing the rocket was a big risk - there was somebody in a position where they couldn't win because they didn't know the future they couldn't tell if this plane was a risk or not a risk but if they let it throw without addressing it and they were wrong and it was a risk well I think you get punished more for not taking the shot than taking the shot right because if you don't take the shot what's that you're just not doing your job if you do take the shot the worst thing that can happen is you're wrong and you blew up a friendly airplane but in terms of how you would be treated in your job you lose either way if you guess wrong so I ran looking to God knows wanted hang some people who made a mistake that's not better the the citizens of Iran should be protesting that - I'm not going to tell the citizens of Iran what they should do let me retract that let

[16:33]

they should do let me retract that let me just say if I were there if it's up to me I'm not gonna be happy because my my leadership that I wanted removed decided to execute a citizen who was just doing their job to stay out of trouble does that make it better no way no way if I see my leadership executing citizens who are just doing their job the best they could I don't think there was anybody who who came in and said well I'll just bang it out today I'm not even gonna try no whoever made that mistake was not trying to make a mistake whoever fired that that missile I you know I could be wrong we could find out there's more to this story but I doubt it I doubt it at this point I would imagine that it was just a mistake by somebody who was in a very difficult situation and was not trying to make a mistake all right Cory Booker has dropped out which of course creates an embarrassing situation

[17:35]

course creates an embarrassing situation for the Democrats but maybe maybe an even worse situation for Joe Biden because you know if Elizabeth Warren or a Klobuchar get the nomination well then at least the Democrats have stayed let's say compatible with their brand because running a woman or a an african-american or Hispanic candidate those would all be pluses but running a old white man against Trump I just don't think that's gonna get people to the polls so I feel as though Booker dropping out changes the the bias in the party toward finding somebody who's not an old white guy so I think Booker dropping out is actually ironically wrong word but you don't talk about I think that it works against Biden and Sanders because it isolates them and puts a spotlight on them as being the wrong demographic group now

[18:37]

being the wrong demographic group now should Biden's lead be so much that he still gets the nomination what does this do to his decision about who to pick as his vice president Cory Booker Cory Booker might be a good vice presidential choice don't see any reason why not he's young enough that he could be a presidential candidate if he sticks it out and of course Harris don't forget Harris is still out there she's got the person of color thing going for her she's a senator and she's a woman that's good Stacey Abrams I would say no chance I just don't think the public is ready for Stacey Abrams mostly because she hasn't been part of the process I think there's gonna be a big bias toward people who went through the war you know went through the process of trying to become president I would hope I mean I

[19:39]

become president I would hope I mean I would think that that that's where you'd want to be picking your vice president not necessary all right so here's a good here's a good example of how important it is to understand comics I talk about this and my best-selling book loser think about how a little bit of exposure to different fields such as a little bit of understanding of how economists think about the world gives you a great advantage and I say often you don't need to be an economist you just have to you know get that top 10 percent of of the way they view the world the way they compare things the way they consider the time value of money probably you know fewer than ten concepts would give you enough to have a little bit of attraction on what an economist is thinking and I bring that up because New York Times has an interesting article about the economy of Iran and being me I

[20:43]

about the economy of Iran and being me I had to google the author to find out what is the author's credentials because if somebody is writing about economics you really should check their credentials so this is a Peter Goodman in The New York Times and he's an economics correspondent now I don't believe that was his major but for years he's been writing about economics and he's a smart guy all right because he's writing for the New York Times so you don't have to wonder if he's smart you don't get to write for the New York Times unless you're smart so he's been writing on the topic and I would guess that he understands it and I would that is confirmed by the way he writes about it all right so here that here are some of the facts he points out about the Iranian economy because I was kind of wondering how close are they to some kind of a collapse because we tend to think everything's close to a collapse when it isn't so here are some facts that he pulls out one of them is that

[21:43]

that he pulls out one of them is that Iran is contracting their economy is contracting at an alarming 9.5 percent annually if you didn't know anything else the only thing you knew is that a country's economy was contracting by close to 10% a year that's kind of all you need to know you say to yourself well that's only 10% but in economic terms a the direction of things means a lot if the if the direction goes down 10% again let's say another year of down 10% you're done probably Iran cannot survive one more year of being down 10% or at least the regime can survive the people will survive so kudos to Peter Goodman for starting off his article with the most important statistic now I don't know if

[22:44]

important statistic now I don't know if a if someone who did not live and work in the field of economics would if so succinctly picked out and focused on the top
top he had decimation and somebody is correctly using the word decimation when you say an economy what is decimated the the Dec and decimated refers to 10 as in 10% so if you knock something down by 10 percent whereas let's say you defeat an army by 10 percent they are decimated people in common usage people use the word to mean completely destroyed but decimated means down 10% which is a big big hit so what else do we know about our end here's something else that Peter Goodman points out that the oil exports for the past year have been effectively zero now I guess smugglers have been doing some stuff and some oil is moving around but it looks like maybe the oil moves but it doesn't sell meaning that

[23:47]

moves but it doesn't sell meaning that your smuggler can take it somewhere but you can't find somebody to buy it now I don't know if we have a if we have good visibility and the whole smuggling thing because it's not smuggling unless I can get away with it it made me it's not good smuggling so there's probably some oil experts good exports going on but if officially it looks like zero zero you're kind of done if you're if you're then all right here's some more things that show more doom [Music] on Tuesday Britain France and Germany told Iran that they're on notice for violating the 2015 nuclear deal hey wait a minute I'm confused Britain France and Germany are pressuring Iran in exactly the kind of way that the United States would want them to well this can't be right can it because I've been told our good authority that they laugh at

[24:48]

good authority that they laugh at president Trump behind his back and and they don't respect us and we can't get anything done in the international deals and stuff because of the way they feel about president Trump I'm so confused why is it that our allies are doing exactly what we want them to do and what is good for them and good for us I I'm all confused it's almost as if other countries pursue their own national interests and that it happens to be aligned with ours like every other time do you know what else our allies pursue their own national interests every time every single time so the whole conversation about whether we're going to get things done because of how they feel about President Trump has always been the dumbest take I mean really there's some smart takes there's some dumb takes but the dumbest take is that other countries will suddenly start forgoing their own national interests

[25:48]

forgoing their own national interests because they're mad at President Trump that will never happen the reason that our allies are our allies is because we have common interests as long as we have common interests we can kind of depend on them doing the things that we expect them to do because it's in their interest it'll stop doing what's in their national interest because of mad at orange man it just doesn't happen this dumb so internationally everything's going great all right so imagine if you will that Britain France and Germany force Iran into a situation where their non-compliance triggers you United Nations saying I don't know how much you can sanction a country I don't you run out of things to sanction after a while so but apparently there there's something else that gets sanctioned whatever we see these stories our sanctions I feel like we don't get enough detail alright here's another one

[26:49]

enough detail alright here's another one another bit pointed out by Peter Peter Goodman is that inflation in Iran is running nearly forty percent forty percent you know we're talking you know Venezuela like numbers here and how is Venezuela's economy doing so their basic necessities are running out I saw separately an article that said that the average Iranian salary is just exactly enough to live and that you know another 10% below that and people literally won't be able to rent a place and live and stuff so they're right on the edge but there's more one in four young Iranians is jobless with college graduates especially short of work would you want to live in a country that is highly weighted toward the young so the the demographic situation in Iran is they're very young and among that huge

[27:51]

they're very young and among that huge bubble of young people there are a lot of college graduates who don't have work and they've got a lot of time on their hands that is your worst situation because college graduates are smart and they've got time on their hands and they're not happy that's a bad situation for social cohesion because it is one thing to have dumb people mad at you I shouldn't say dumb that's I don't mean to be insulting it's one thing to have people who don't have much let's say resources don't have much ingenuity if they're mad at you you can survive but if you get the smartest people in your country mad at you and they have time on their hands that's a bad situation it's a bad situation for the regime
I saw a journalist used the word contempt to say that the reigning public because of the Ukrainian airline denial

[28:53]

because of the Ukrainian airline denial that they change the minds and said yes we did it that the public feels contempt contempt now that's that's a writers word but I think it's a key word I think I've told you before that one of the most predictive words for a marriage is contempt if you see a married couple reacting to each other with contempt it almost always signals the end of the marriage two people could be really mad at each other just mad and it doesn't mean that the marriage is over it just means two people get mad but when one of them is showing contempt then the experts say there it is one of the two people has contempt that's it that's the end because you don't you don't uncontested web if it's true that the Iranian public or some big part of it as now feeling a and an emotion that could

[29:53]

now feeling a and an emotion that could be described accurately as contempt it's all over now I don't know that this is true I don't know if you if you talk to the average Iranian would they use that word or some word like it in Farsi don't know but if you hear that word coming from the people involved not somebody labeling them on their behalf but if they use that word or anything like it it's game over contempt is a one-way street because well let me let me put it another way I often talk about the difference between wanting and deciding when you want something you complain differently when you've decided you call it contempt contempt signals decision as opposed to just wanting you could want your regime to change and maybe you try a little bit and you don't get what you want and you say well I don't always get what I want but I tried that's what wanting gets you

[30:55]

but I tried that's what wanting gets you you try doesn't work out you quit contempt sounds like a decision a decision is not wanting a decision is your gonna go get it and you don't care what the cost is because the cost of a revolution is extreme a lot of people die so the Iranian public might be on the cusp of wanting a different government versus feeling contempt and simply deciding the government's going to go we're probably not there but I think we're right on the edge of that and probably the economy failing will push them over the other problem that Iran has is credit apparently 70% of the banking industry is under direct control of the government and that's sort of good because they're I guess they're honoring whatever they're doing they're pumping money into the system or they're they're allowing too much credit but anyway they're they're violating the basic the basic principles of banking in

[31:58]

basic the basic principles of banking in order to keep things together temporarily so they've got too much of a credit bubble I think something like half of all loans are passed do half think about that imagine the United States where half of all of our loans are past due half half of all your loans are past due I don't know if you can come back from that so it looks like the Iranian banking system is on the edge of collapse but here is probably the most important thing you know how dictators and really any country they can create cohesion by demonstrating an external threat sometimes it's a real external threat and sometimes it's an imaginary one but in both cases if you have this external threat you could make a case for your public coming together even if they hate their own government it's like well how we hate our government but

[33:00]

well how we hate our government but we're all Arabians you know we're gonna be on the same side because we've got this external threat that didn't happen you would expect that the external threat would look like this whoever's putting on the sanctions whoever's threatening the country militarily and that's the United States but when well there were two things that happened in the last week that completely changed the frame so the frame changed when Trump took care of Solomon a instead of taking out normal you know anything else that would hurt an Iranian citizen when Trump took out Solomon II Saleh many he made it very clear this is not a war against citizens of Iran this is a war against the same people you don't like citizens of Iran we both don't like the same guy he is our problem but he's also your problem we're gonna kill him for you whose side is the United States on right see where

[34:01]

is the United States on right see where I'm going honest the president picked the only solution that allowed him to attack Iran in a vital vital asset this general who was so important without changing the frame to the United States against Iran he actually created he found the only way to attack them in a substantial way there would be on the same side as the citizens that's pretty pretty fine-tuning right there talk about threading a needle but there's more when the when the Iranian government lied to its people about the downing of the the aircraft and when it became came clear that the Iranians had killed not only thousands maybe hundreds or thousands of protesters recently but the Iranian government had also shot down a plane one side is the public on the Iranian public recent events have

[35:03]

the Iranian public recent events have made it crystal clear and and in fact the president has said it explicitly in his tweet he said now a tweet in Farsi supporting the citizens of Iran but not their government you just saw I'm not seeing real I'm not seeing reporting on this but you're watching one of the greatest persuasion games maybe you've ever seen you know I hate to say if something's the greatest ever because it usually just means you can't think of the other ones right away but this looks like one of the most impressive persuasion reframes I've ever seen if I had told you a year ago that the president would reframe events in Iran effectively like actually getting it done where the citizens of Iran feel more loyalty loyalties are awkward but they feel like they're more on the same side as President Trump against a common enemy

[36:07]

President Trump against a common enemy which is their own government if I told you a year ago that that could happen would you have believed it that's actually what's happening it's the most ridiculously insane effective persuasion I've ever seen what's the hardest problem in the world peace in the Middle East how close are we to peace in the entire Middle East okay you never get complete peace because there's always be warlords and factions and proxies and stuff but in terms of the big stuff you know the big picture we are closer than we've ever been we're actually down to one guy the Ayatollah there's just one person who needs to make one decision that would be in his own interest that's it there's one person left the Ayatollah he just has to say okay we're not gonna be against you anymore we're just gonna try to live in peace that's it

[37:07]

to live in peace that's it and what is in his best interest he has two choices one the complete destruction of his country and it will be his fault and he is probably a few years away from the end of his life does the Ayatollah what the last few years of his life to be the complete destruction of Iran because that's his other choice or can he go with the public of his own public and say you know maybe we won't be so adventurous let's just take care things at home that's his other choice and maybe we'll be productive in terms of helping the rest of the Middle East calm down maybe we'll turn off our proxies maybe we'll spend our money at home instead of with the proxies he could do that one guy one guy who has a terrible choice and one that's not so bad Trump did that there's nobody there's nobody else who would have brought us to this situation I don't think there's nobody who would have made the same choices that Trump has made up

[38:10]

the same choices that Trump has made up to this point they got us to the point of one old man who's got a terrible choice and one that's not so terrible it's it that's it now we might have he might need more pressure but it looks like the people of Iran are going to apply it and it looks like the economy is going to apply it it looks like it looks like we're gonna get pressure from the Europeans and the only thing that's going to stop it is all the efforts from China and Russia to stop the pressure on oh that's not happening that's right the dog that isn't barking Putin is not telling us to back down on Iran President Xi is not telling Trump to back down on Iran they're sitting it out they're sending it out what's that tell you whose side they're on whose side are President Xi and Putin on right they're

[39:11]

President Xi and Putin on right they're on Trump side because if they were not on his side they'd tell you their - I wouldn't China say this is a terrible idea president Trump you should back down they'd say that of course they would would Putin say that well maybe he's being a little more political at the moment but I think he'd say something that would suggest he's thinking it you know he might not be as direct because he's got his own interests but I think we'd know if they didn't think this was a good idea we'd know about it so it appears the president Trump just just bear with me for a moment
seems to have on his side all Republicans right pretty much all Republicans think he did a good job you know there are exceptions but not let's say 95 percent it looks like he's got Europe on his side it looks like he's got Putin and President Xi on his side

[40:11]

got Putin and President Xi on his side it looks like he has the Iranian public on his side the only people the only people who are not on his side or maybe Rand Paul and some Democrats this is the most amazing thing you've ever seen somebody says Trudeau isn't on his side TAS Trudeau's on his side I believe Trudeau is on the side there may be things that Trudeau now well I'm mind-reading now so let me let me pull that back you might see Trudeau you know saying negative things because countries do that leaders do that well I can't imagine that Canada isn't happy about where things are at the moment I think even Canada would say you know it looks like we have an opportunity here this is the best situation we've ever seen in terms of getting to a better place all right so I'm absolutely amazed you know if if the only thing the president did

[41:12]

if if the only thing the president did President Trump was solved the Middle East and you'd have to say best president ever but it's early we don't know that anything's going in the right direction we just know that we've never been this close this might be a once ever situation you know because the Middle East has been bad forever in terms of danger in war and and in conflict we've never been this close to solving at all you know the big stuff anyway there's a story there's a six trillion dollar ask that manager at Blackrock now if you don't know Blackrock I told you everything you need to just know there's one guy there who manages six trillion dollars in assets six trillion so it's a I don't know what Blackrock would be called hedge fund or some kind of investment hedge fund sort

[42:12]

some kind of investment hedge fund sort of a I don't know their exact nature but they're an enormous financial entity enormous and he's worried about the fundamental reshaping of finance that's coming and specifically he's talking about the danger of climate change risk to credit so this six trillion dollar asset manager is putting on a big letter that all the finance people will be reading today all the fortune 500 companies will be looking at it today and one of the questions that many of you one of you asked somebody says project Veritas just dropped a birdie video well that'll be interesting we'll check that out later so anyway this Black Rock manager guy is saying that from now on we really need to consider the effects of climate change loans basically and credit and bonds and all

[43:15]

basically and credit and bonds and all kinds of loan vehicles you know lending vehicles and the idea is that the entire cities might not be credit worthy anymore because if you're if you're city you might be underwater or destroyed by hurricanes from climate change or whatever that they might not be able to get loans to rebuild anything because who wants to rebuild where the climates just going to destroy it again so he's putting that out there now what's important about this is where it came from if you and I complain about climate change and the risk of climate change nobody cares but what's one of the things that most of the climate let's say deniers the people who believe there's not a problem with climate change in the future or now what have most of them been saying as one of their primary arguments well one of the primary arguments is that all the people who were smart with money are acting as though climate change doesn't exist and now a guy who made

[44:17]

now a guy who made six trillion dollars trillion he manages that money says that he's going to change his behavior because of climate change risk now I'm not here to argue climate change I'm just telling you what the news is right the news is that your argument about hey all the smart people who do insurance and loans are acting like climate change is not a risk that just changed from today on you can't use that argument anymore because a guy who manages six trillion dollars just raised the flag and just said those days are over from this day on we have to treat it like it's a risk now it might not be right that's a separate argument is it a risk or is it not but you are old argument that the money the money people are treating it like it's not a risk just went away from this day on you can't use that argument anymore because he's that big of a player that you have

[45:18]

he's that big of a player that you have to say yes some of the most important money people in the world just decided they're going to calculate that in their risk management calculations it's a big deal a big big deal all right which again doesn't mean the climate change is going one way or the other it just means that the way we think about it has changed today it probably won't go back all right see what else we got here well I think I've touched on all of my major topics maybe he's predicting human behavior you say baby yeah there's lots of the story but the whole point of it is two-thirds of the US population lives within a hundred miles of ocean here's a little climate change factoid for you it's one of those you should always keep in your your quiver so if you get into a conversation about climate change and

[46:18]

conversation about climate change and somebody says the sea level is going up blah blah here's a factoid for you very and this is very No commonsensical meaning your common sense would not tell you this to be true but it is true which is the sea level will not rise the same way all over the world according to climate change the thing that will make sea level rise as much as the fact that there's maybe some melting glaciers is the actual warming of the ocean itself so as the water gets warmer it expands which makes the sea level rise but the warming will not be in equal places around the world so you'll actually see places but if if climate change plays out the way the scientists say you would see see light and sea level rising maybe a lot in some places and actually go down in other places and the reason it could go down hypothetically is that there are two

[47:18]

hypothetically is that there are two conditions one is that didn't get much warmer so the warming didn't affect one part of the country or one part of the world but to the the the land and the sea are continually moving so there are places where the land is actually rising so if you happen to be a place where the land is coincidentally rising and you didn't get that much hotter you can actually have sea level dropping even while it's rising to dangerous levels in other part of the world so when somebody said that some high percentage of our population is near the sea that's true but it does not automatically say that the sea level will rise in those places and I believe that we have not seen sea level rise in any scary way on our borders can somebody fact-checking on that I believe that sea level has not risen in the United States in a way that would look scary yet which is not to say it won't happened but I believe that yet we don't really have a national problem

[48:21]

we don't really have a national problem on our borders I think other places are more at risk fact check me on that
West Coast is rising East Coast is sinking somebody says I don't know if that's right but that but that's the sort of thing you could expect now I've been to the beach I live in California I haven't noticed I've been to Hawaii a number of times haven't noticed sea level looks exactly the same in Hawaii at least in Maui looks the same to me I mean if it's up to inches I can't tell
all right can you see my progress on the drums yes not right away but I am working on I'm working on something for that please do the Veritas podcast oh there's a podcast on that so let's see let's look up

[49:22]

on that so let's see let's look up project Veritas and see what he's got going here project if you don't mind stay with me for a moment project Veritas I wonder if I wonder how hard this will be to find the research don't want to miss