Episode 784 Scott Adams: Loserthink From Artists, Iranian Attitudes, North Korea, Lots More

Date: 2020-01-11 | Duration: 1:06:19

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Iran takes full responsibility for downing the civilian aircraft The way the tragedy happened is interesting Would you accept a doubling of your income… IF it quadruples the income of billionaires? The Theory of Infinite Variety framework Reject the concept of pride in your group NK Denuclearization is only one small policy change away Fareed Zakaria’s TDS and belief President Trump is “impulsive” Virginia Heffernan, LA Times…Trump followers are a cult? White House working on list of additional banned countries Why shouldn’t other countries pay for safety we provide? Monetizing the safety and security we provide for countries

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> [!note] Rough Transcript
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## Transcript

[0:04]

bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum hey everybody come on in it's good to see you yeah it's time for coffee with Scott Adams you can hear my printer busily printing out my notes it'll be done in any moment now but until then let us enjoy the real reason you came here which is the simultaneous M yeah that's why and you don't need much to enjoy the simultaneous sip all you need is a cup or a mug or glass a tanker chelators time a canteen juggler flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid have you heard I like coffee and join me down for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine head of the day the thing that makes everything better there's simultaneous up go oh yeah excuse me it's gotta grab my notes hold

[1:06]

excuse me it's gotta grab my notes hold on don't go anywhere coming back yeah alright did you miss me it's okay I was just over by the printer don't panic alright we got a lot of stuff to talk about today today is a star star of the day is representative Doug Collins who yesterday I am Preet Bharara and lots of people mocked for saying that Democrats are in love with terrorists and today actually yesterday representative Collins tweeted let me be clear I do not believe Democrats were in love with terrorists and I apologize for what I said earlier 48-hour rule for apologies has been accepted and as I've told you before you will come to love the following standard for joy for judging your fellow humans the old way you used

[2:07]

your fellow humans the old way you used to do it is judging them by their mistakes bad way to judge people because we all make mistake good way to judge people is by how they respond to their mistakes representative Collins made a mistake responded to it quickly clearly apologized BAM that's how you do it star of the week Doug Collins not because of the mistake because of the way he handled it perfectly done nice play all right there's something maybe interesting happening that people can smell before they see it involving the Iranian situation and that has to do with the way they're dealing with the news which no doubt they did not want to admit which is apparently they are not apparently they are responsible for firing the missile that took down the Ukraine Airlines killing many of their own citizens and some and some others as

[3:08]

own citizens and some and some others as well so Iran has now taken full responsibility and people are wondering if that suggests that they're more flexible meaning that it seems like the sort of response you might give if you're thinking you know we need to rejoin the international community anybody else in this situation would admit you know admit responsibility and just handle it and Iran did that now I think they also had no real choice because the evidence was I mean it was just obvious to people even before the investigation right is there anyone who really thought that anything else was going on other than Iran shot it down accidentally I think we all knew that so in bidding something that everybody knows this maybe not the biggest step in joining the international community but

[4:09]

joining the international community but it's not nothing all right at least at least it's a step in the right direction but there's something very interesting about the way it happened so a turn that it turns out that the head of the I guess is the Iranian guard who was it the Iranian whether they call themselves the commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps so he said that he had requested all commercial flights in Iran be grounded until tensions with the u.s. cooled off now who who used to be the boss of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard well my understanding is that it was Saleh money right he was the boss he was the boss of all the military and and intelligence

[5:09]

all the military and and intelligence forces so this commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard talked to another branch of the Armed Forces who were authorized to ground planes so I guess the the Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard did not have the authority to ground the planes but they asked for the planes to be grounded by another force of the military and the other force of the military didn't do it we don't know why but they didn't do it let me ask you this if Solomon a he had been alive who was the boss of both groups he was the boss of the military he was the boss of range national you know Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard if Solomon ëwhat had been still alive do you think those flights would have been in the air I don't think so I am and by

[6:10]

in the air I don't think so I am and by the way I think I'll be the first person to tell you this but by later today you might hear it on the news but if you know that two members of the military who used to both report to the same guy can't get their messages straight and one of them is asking for something completely reasonable and the other one's not doing it that suggests that missing solamente might be a bigger problem that we thought and my be a bigger problem internally you know we always we always imagine that unintended consequences only happen to our own side well there's a pretty big unintended consequence that might be happening internally which is jockeying for power and finger-pointing and probably a lot of scrambling to figure out who was in charge and who's really in charge you know there's who's who's in charge on paper and then there's who's really in charge so I got a feeling there's some internal confusion within Iran that

[7:15]

some internal confusion within Iran that may not be getting better any time soon
so we've got that it has been a few days now and we've not seen so far correct me if I'm wrong any of Iran's proxies attacking any of our assets now the reporting is that Iran actually told its proxies to step down you know to stand down and I think maybe that's true we'll have to you know time will tell but I would like to offer this new thought there's something about tragedy that focuses you like other things don't we saw it in our country we saw it with 9/11 right 9/11 for good or for bad focused this country like a few things can focus you know Pearl Harbor focused this country like few things can focus so there's something about tragedy that does cause

[8:17]

something about tragedy that does cause the country to come together and focus and I would argue that Iran's frame just changed and what I what I mean by frame is the way we the way we look in a situation that the framing we put on this situation changed here's the change I think two trait that the change went from Iran versus the United States that was the old frame and we're fighting you you're fighting us you know we're were we're at each other but this tragedy accidentally changed the frame and I would I would describe it this way Iran is only hurting itself if you're in Iran doesn't it feel like whatever your government has been doing in terms of what's happening with the United States etc doesn't feel like you're only hurting yourself now because the u.s. lost exactly zero people Iran shot down

[9:18]

lost exactly zero people Iran shot down you know a flight full of that a lot of its own people on it and a lot of people from Canada and other countries and it feels like what happened was the Iranian let's say psychology changed from we're having a competition with you you being the United States to I think everything we do just hurts us everything we do hurts our economy everything we do hurts our reputation everything we do costs us lives but their Iranian lives why is it that everything we do is just bad for us
so that's one of those subtle changes that you don't see in the news but it might make a big difference over time apparently the news is coming out that the u.s. unsuccessfully targeted another Iranian military official who had something to do with funding which is probably a strong person to target

[10:19]

probably a strong person to target because if you take out the person who's in charge of all the financing from the bad activities that could be quite a blow but apparently the that operation did not work we did not take him out but what message does that send it's a really a different message if you took if you tried to go after two or maybe there were more maybe we'll find out later than one more than two but your decapitation strike looks a little different if it's two people than if it does one even if one of them didn't work sorry my cat is ruining my video here cat you are not allowed to be on camera all right I'll try to control her so it does have this different different message if there were two in two targets because that makes it feel like nobody's safe if you try to get one person you could imagine in your mind oh okay there was something very special about that one

[11:20]

something very special about that one person so they're done and once they've got that one person but as soon as you hear it was two people you say to yourself apparently it's not limited and that's a really different psychological message which is now it's not really about that one person and by the way he's still alive so you know don't go to the airport
here's alright what else we got here sorry my cat just really needs some attention right now I've got I've got to pull up on Twitter they got a very interesting outcome she sorry you're seeing her tail if you're wondering what that furry thing is that keeps surrounding my neck that's my cat's tail so I put a survey up and I asked this

[12:21]

so I put a survey up and I asked this question a hypothetical question on Twitter in a poll and I said if a wizard offered to double your income all right you can all play along if a wizard offered to double your income and the only catch is that it would quadruple the income of the super rich would you accept I'll put that question to you and you can answer it in the comments before I tell you before I tell you the actual answer this cat this cat is just going crazy on me I have to tell you that last night she got out of the house she's an indoor cat but she got out last night so she was missing in action on a cold night and when I when she finally returned hours later she was very glad to be in a warm house umm so alright so what do you say I'm seeing a little watching your answers yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes of course

[13:23]

yes yes yes no yes yes yes yes of course yes alright let me jump it out to the answer the answer is yes yes if somebody offers to double your income even if they've quadrupled the income of strangers who are the super rich remember I call them the I refer to them as the super rich now super rich let's call that billionaires now there are people who thought wait a minute this is a trick yeah here we see it in the comment somebody says what about inflation what about inflation now what is it I've told you when I talk about my book that's over here losers think I told you that it really helps understand the world if you know at least a little bit about economics so I'm going to teach you a little bit about economics to help you understand your world if all of the billionaires in the world quadrupled their income what would happen it's only

[14:24]

their income what would happen it's only the billionaires all right what would happen to the rest of us if the billionaires all quadrupled their income well you don't have to wonder because it happens all the time almost all of the billionaires have quadrupled their income during your lifetime what's different let me bring this down to down to the weeds for a moment if you're worried about inflation consider this how many potatoes does a billionaire eat for dinner how many well on average a billionaire might eat one potato for dinner because that's all he needs yeah he's now so hungry he needs two potatoes so once you've quadrupled the income of the billionaire how many additional potatoes does he buy no additional potatoes he was already eating one potato a night and that's all he needed he didn't need any extra potatoes so when you go to the store did your

[15:26]

store did your potato cost to go up it did not potato costs are the same because the demand is exactly the same one billionaire is one potato let's see let's say you go to the car dealership and you buy your toyota toyota prius did the cost of your prius go up because the billionaire's quadrupled their income no because zero billionaires bought a Prius you know maybe maybe some billionaire by is enacted well actually a billionaire is going to buy the same amount of Priuses if that's the right plural for prius might be a pre i they buy many pre i but they're they would buy exactly the same number of of low-end cars as they bought before which is zero so when you go to shop for your low-end Carles I say low-end as opposed to let's say a luxury automobile low-end being you know cars

[16:27]

automobile low-end being you know cars that you and I drive what about my x5 that's that's more of a high-end car how many extra high-end x5 s are purchased because the billionaire's quadrupled their income none not not one extra car even at the you know expensive level were purchased because they already had a car every billionaire have exactly the cars they wanted no more no less that all the cars they needed so those of you worrying about inflation you had not thought this through if the only people who have more money are the super-rich they might not buy anything extra because they already had all the money they needed for everything there's no point being super rich if he can't buy yourself a yacht so yes the cost of luxury yachts might go up in fact there's a good chance that the cost of

[17:27]

there's a good chance that the cost of homes that cost more than twenty five million dollars might go up will that affect you well will you feel that in your inflation does your milk cost because a billionaire bought a 50 million dollar house instead of a 25 million dollar house nope so that's a little example and by the way 10% of the people who were asked the question would they accept a doubling of their income in return for their super-rich getting a quadrupling 10% said no now if 10% of the world will say no to doubling their income it's got to be because either you suspected a trick or maybe you're not not good at you know the economic analysis is possible do you have a minute I'd like to end racism and sexism if you have a minute I was thinking the

[18:28]

if you have a minute I was thinking the other day Scott how can I end racism in this country as well as sexism and any kind of LGBTQ discrimination Scott how can I do this and I would like to offer you the following solution I call it the theory of infinite variety of humans I just named it I didn't really call it anything until just this moment so here's the theory it's a different frame for understanding our reality our current frame says you got your men you got your women you got your gays you got your your transgenders you got your you got your black she got your white you got your Asian she got your Hispanics all right that's the current model is that there are categories and you're in one or more of the categories what happens when you imagine a world in which there are

[19:29]

imagine a world in which there are categories and you also imagine that you can sort people into the categories up your you're a woman you're also Hispanic okay you go into the Hispanic woman category that's who you are what happens when you see the world that way well what happens is you revert to teams because as soon as you know what team you're on you've got all weight I'm on the
the the older white guy team in America okay there must be my team what is the automatic biological reaction to being on a team you can't turn this off it makes you think that the other team needs to be defeated needs to be controlled but you want your team to win because it's your team there's no thinking involved it's just like well I'm on a team I want it to win so here's the new framework the infinite variety of humans framework this by the way has been my my own mental model forever

[20:30]

been my my own mental model forever which is one of the reasons that sort of classic discrimination racism prejudice etc confuses me here's what confuses me have you ever seen let's say white supremacists or racist say that white people are awesome because white people invented a lot and built a lot this is a common thing right hey white white people did a bunch of good stuff we invented a lot of inventions and and accomplished some stuff do you know what's wrong with that the racist didn't do the racists are different people you can't take credit for strangers just because they have something in common with your DNA that's not a thing but yet we all do it at one of the I would say one of the most positive sounding but

[21:32]

one of the most positive sounding but actually negative things is to say you have pride in your group are you proud to be whatever fill in black you're proud to be an elbonian you're proud to be black you're proud to be a woman you're proud to be asian-american whatever you are that is the worst thing you could ever say if you want to make the world a better place do not take pride in the accomplishment of strangers Rangers don't know you when when Edison invented the light bulb I don't get credit because I'm white it doesn't work that way we are all infinitely different people with different capabilities the fact that some people did some some impressive things who are not me if they're not me how do I take credit for that just because I sort of look like some of them

[22:32]

because I sort of look like some of them some how does it work that way here's the better frame everybody is infinitely different what do I care about your sex life you're just like me and you're just like everybody here yours is a completely different than everybody else's the amount you want it the things you think about the things that turn you on the things you care about it's probably changed over time you we are all infinitely different I am so different from people who are also male and also let's say white male because in my case that's my category I've been forced to be and I'm now like you you you know let's be honest would you be listening to this periscope if the things I said were the same things you were already thinking no the the entire the entire reason that any white male is watching me talk is because the things that I say will not be the things you're already thinking that's the whole

[23:34]

you're already thinking that's the whole point once you leave the frame of people being you know in their little categories a society a society for us and you say what about we're all infinitely different you have to reject how similar you are to your own category to get to the next level if you imagine this is like a video game you tried to get to the next level you have to reject pride in your group pride in your group is just stupid pride in your group is counterproductive because it forces you to be in your group and then you're taking credit for strangers right do do all black people get credit because Obama was president now do all white people get credit because you know George Washington was a great general no I don't get any credit for that I'm not George Washington he's a stranger stop taking credit for strangers and stop thinking that anybody has to be in

[24:35]

stop thinking that anybody has to be in your box so one of the reasons that my regular listeners know that I've been quite defensive of everything LGBTQ it's not because I think that gay people should have equal rights but of course I do
do it's not because I think anybody who's transgender etc should have equal opportunities rights but I do the reason that I'm supportive is because I like the frame that we're just all different you know if you took the any of the letters in LGBTQ just say all right I'll take the AL let's see yeah let's look at all the people who are you know lesbians they're all different I mean they had sort of them coincidentally who have things in common but they're not the important things right they're just infinitely different so that frame is more powerful than you think it is it'll sink in a little bit all right let's say read between the lines what chairman Kim

[25:38]

read between the lines what chairman Kim North Korea how he responded or at least how the country responded North Korea responded to I guess president Trump sent chairman Kang Kim a nice birthday card and apparently chairman Kim has has acknowledged that he feels he has a good feeling about President Trump but he's he's quite angry about the lack of progress so he thinks that he's wasted 18 months but I want to look you know there's always a translation problem but look at the the wording that Kim used and see if we can read between the lines okay Kim said his country will quote never denuclearize if they'll never do something yeah read between the lines they are willing to do that thing Saudi nuclear eyes you never say I'll

[26:39]

Saudi nuclear eyes you never say I'll never do it unless you do this unless you're you're open to the possibility so Kim is actually signaled by his choice of language that he's open to the possibility did you know that because I don't know if anybody's ever said that before that he's open to the possibility I think all the smart people have said well there's no way he's gonna get rid of his nukes though but why would he word it this way he said his country will never denuclearize if the u.s. does not retreat okay so is what's coming something impossible what what follows the if if what follows the if is something impossible then okay that's not real he's just putting in if they're followed by something impossible because he's really just wants to keep his nukes so let's see what's the second part of the sentence he'll never denuclearize if the US does what quote retreat from its quote hostile policy toward Pyongyang retreat

[27:43]

hostile policy toward Pyongyang retreat from its hostile policy that's almost that feels like the easiest thing we could ever do so instead of so instead of saying there's an impossible thing we have to accomplish in order for anything to get done Kim said exactly the opposite of that it was the smallest problem that we have to solve do you know what the smallest problem to solve for the United States is to not have a warlike position against somebody we don't have a one-half a war with and they don't want to have a war with us there's not much easier than not attacking somebody you don't want to attack and doesn't want to attack you and doesn't want to be attacked Kim has reduced this to the simplest possible formula that we have to show that our intentions are def and here's what he didn't say we will

[28:45]

and here's what he didn't say we will not talk to you until you remove your military forces from South Korea I mean could have said that I think he said something in that range before about the military assets in South Korea but he didn't say that he didn't say you didn't even say remove your military assets he said change your policy what happens if President Trump said you know were stalled on this North Korea were stalled so I think the first step will be to have a congressional act in which we the Congress gets involved to say that the war is over I think that's got to be the next step now it could be that we're waiting for something in return but we have to we probably need to do the magic trick remember the magic trick the magic trick is when there's an impossible situation North Korea is a good example you know they won't do nuclear eyes

[29:45]

you know they won't do nuclear eyes until we do something but we won't do that until they do right so we've got this nobody wants to go first problem so if we gave them nothing which would be a declaration that it's the end of the Korean War from our perspective and we have no intentions of hostile intent that would basically be nothing because we could just change our mind tomorrow right so it wouldn't have any real-world practical effect but it would look like something it might it might look like something pretty big in return we would want them to give us something that might sound good but maybe isn't that much and I'm sure that they could come up with something in that category so I think we have to get off the dime by offering something that looks like we could argue it has value in return for them saying they got something of value but just start to change the psychology of it because when Kim says he wants us

[30:45]

of it because when Kim says he wants us to change our hostile policy I feel like that's exactly what he wants and remember I told you that I learned in hypnosis class that people say exactly what they want if you if you analyze the actual choice of words and what he wants is as a policy change he's asking for a policy change that feels doable right if you said you know get rid of all of your nuclear weapons and we'll get rid of ours well we're not going to do that but we certainly talk differently it sounds like that's what he's asking for for the next step all right here's a fun thing for you to do let me give this a little set up there are two people that I would described as artists meaning that there are professional writers one is for Reid

[31:47]

professional writers one is for Reid Zakaria and one is Virginia Heffernan who's writing in the LA Times at least the article I saw now I'm a huge fan of Fareed Zakaria I've been watching him for years you show on CNN and I always tune it in like if I'm going through the channels yeah I stop immediately when I see him because my experience has been over a years and years of watching him he has the most reasoned complete smartest take a lot of stuff especially international stuff but he seems to be and I'll just say seems to be because I'm not a doctor suffering from one of the worst cases of Trump derangement syndrome you'll ever see and one of the things he says is the Trump does not have a policy he has a series of impulses and yes what is our strategy in Iran and other things but what's our strategy he's got to stop using these impulses and even said that Trump

[32:52]

impulses and even said that Trump supporters have a North Korean style of enthusiasm in other words it's looking kind of culty and that Trump has broken our relationships with our allies in Europe now here's what I want to add to the conversation
find me someone who's a business expert let's say a CEO of a major company who also says that Trump has no strategy and he operates on impulse because I Google this to see how many people are saying Trump is impulsive if you just google that Trump impulsive you get a you know tons of hits because it's the Democrat talking point but I look what I was looking for this is he how many people with business experience say that now I'm gonna subtract the people all right I'm going to subtract the people who are sort of professional critics of the president so I think Mark Cuban's more

[33:54]

president so I think Mark Cuban's more he sort of crosses the line into I think he's on a team so the team players are not going to be quite as useful for this but something let's just say somebody who's on CNBC and they're just a see you know we're a business expert my my take on this is that people who have experience in business do not say things such as somebody is operating on impulse and they don't have a strategy because it's not a thing business people know it's not a thing this is an artist take the artist take is that you can read minds of strangers you can see that there's no thinking and there's just a bunch of impulses how in the world does fareed zakaria in my opinion one of the smartest people in the entire game and I mean that like he's seriously smart guy and also knowledgeable so he's he's smart and knowledgeable that's pretty

[34:56]

smart and knowledgeable that's pretty good and he's still saying stuff like he can read a stranger's mind he doesn't see any thinking in there it's just jumping from one thing to another let me ask you this if I read what would you say is the strategy of Apple Computer anybody anybody if strategies are good things you'd expect our biggest corporations to have one what is the strategy of Apple Computer now I know you can all answer the question right you say stuff like well Apple Computer is a company that makes computers they make a desktop and laptop computers and oh wait a minute wait a minute that was the old strategy remember they used to do their strategy to be good at making computers and then Steve Jobs said let's make a music device what was the strategy what's the strategy from going to be going from a computer company to a portable music

[35:58]

computer company to a portable music company what's that strategy explain that to me all right and if I ask you what's Apple's strategy right now now that they've they've become more of a multi product company you'd say oh well their strategy is to build high-end expensive high margin equipment that falls into these categories but don't you think that if Apple found a new category such as self-driving cars or whatever it is wouldn't they also do that so of course they would Apple does what they can do better than other people which is apparently they can attract the best engineers they have a good such good engineering that they are capable of building the best high-end product and you know they've got kind of a monopoly because if you start using any of their products it's just easier to have all of them because they work together seamlessly so what is their strategy

[37:00]

seamlessly so what is their strategy well there's strategy obviously is that when some new opportunity comes up or that were events change they change they introduce a product they try it out it doesn't work they get rid of it sounds impulsive doesn't it because they introduced a product they try it for a while the public doesn't like it and then they get rid of it whereas their strategy shouldn't their strategy be that they keep selling the product nobody wants well that would be a good strategy right no there's no company that has this magical thing called this every every CEO wakes up every day and says based on my variables today what do I do today did anything change now in the world of Trump things are changing all the time he's finding out new information you know allies are are unpredictable they might respond one way he's looking at social media you don't know how

[38:00]

at social media you don't know how social medias gonna respond until you see it you don't know how the pundits are gonna frame things until they frame it Trump is in a world where everything's changing all the time we wouldn't even make sense to have a strategy because he would have to change it every 10 minutes because the variables change you don't have one strategy no matter what the variables are that's not even the thing it wouldn't make sense to have one strategy no matter what happens in the world as soon as something happens you got to reassess your strategy maybe it works maybe it doesn't if it doesn't you change it so here's my larger point only the people who do not have experience running you know as let's say managers in a traditional setting some of those I think Fareed has been a he's been an editor before but that's sort of still in the writing world journalism world I think people who have run big businesses don't say things like where's the strategy because it doesn't make sense

[39:01]

strategy because it doesn't make sense it's a it's a nonsense statement doesn't mean anything in a world where everything's changing all the time Trump's approach of waking up today and saying what do I do today based on today's variables including any changes in the ways thinking about things and then he yeah then he makes the he makes the decision based on today's variables would you want that to change would you want that to be different beyond that there's certainly some things about and the the examples that Fareed gives is that Trump will say I want to get out of the Middle East but then he'll be sending troops in so how does that make sense he wants to get out but he's he's increasing engagement to which I say Farid it makes sense because the variables changed it might make sense you want to get out and then something happens you say oh damn it I still want to get out but I gotta get

[40:01]

still want to get out but I gotta get back in to do this thing to make sure that we don't have a specific danger because the variables changed it's just nonsense talk from one of the smartest guys in the game and that is what caused me to write looser think when you see somebody as smart as fareed zakaria say something that doesn't track at all with what anybody with business experience would be saying it's because of a lack of exposure to the field you know it kind of it kind of shows that there's just sort of a gap in his experience because he thinks saying things like you don't have a strategy actually makes any sense doesn't make any sense for experienced people all right Virginia Heffernan writing in the LA Times she was talking about the question of whether Trump supporters are in a cult and here are some some parts from

[41:01]

cult and here are some some parts from what Virginia writes she said as 2019 drew to a close my doubts about trumpism as a cult dissolved and I'm not alone oh other people are thinking this so now she's going to list some other people who may be who give her some confidence that her opinion that the Trump people are in a cult so here are the credible people which he names as being on the same side and therefore supporting her opinion that Trump followers are in a cult she goes on to say Republican lawyer George Conway what is she really going to use George Conway as for example of somebody with clear thinking let me continue Republican lawyer George Conway reportedly described his wife
okay Trump's presidential counselor Kellyanne Conway as a member of a cult Jennifer

[42:05]

Conway as a member of a cult Jennifer I'm sorry Virginia Heffernan have you been watching George Conway and all and do you have you seen him tweet for example because he tweets you might want to check out some of his tweets because if you're finding intellectual cover because you're on the same side as George Conway maybe you need to get a little stronger people on your team but she goes on former GOP strategist John Weaver has used the term I don't know who he is but I guess there's at least one guy in the GOP who is an effort chopper then there is so it's George Conway the least credible person in the world followed by a guy never heard of oh but also Anthony Ciara Moochie now there is an objective person Anthony's Kara Moochie he has no ax to grind with the guy who fired him and

[43:07]

grind with the guy who fired him and then there's somebody named Trump's one-time political scientist Norman Ornstein never heard of him there's a science journalist called Steve Silberman never heard of him there's a Pastor John pebble it's never heard of them and academic journalists never heard him or whatever what and then she goes on she says what the cult diagnosis may lack in scholarly rigor so she confesses that the cult designation elack's some scholarly rigor how much scholarly rigor does it lack Oh 100% yeah what the scholarly rigor is sadly a little inadequate but anyway she says it makes up for in explanatory power now that's good unless it doesn't predict the future do you know what

[44:08]

do you know what when somebody says that their theory has explanatory power what does that mean the music explains the past and and the current do you know what other hypotheses can explain the past almost all of them and what do I teach you more often than you want to hear you can come up with lots of theories that explain the past have you seen climate science climate science has a hundred different or lots of them at least 100 different climate models which start at the point of already explaining the past a hundred completely different models they all explain the past and they're all different variables how hard is it to explain the past to easy it's real easy just ask Hillary Clinton to explain why she lost it's easy it's Russia it's sexism it's she didn't go to the

[45:08]

it's sexism it's she didn't go to the everybody's got a theory for explain in the past you want to impress me predict the future predict the future if you want to impress me with your worldview tell me what's gonna happen next because if it can't do that you don't have a worldview you have cognitive dissonance and you have confirmation bias that's what it means when you can explain the past everybody can do that alright and I love the the this is also talking about drum supporters so saying that they've basically changed their personalities from a commitment to Liberty nary liber libertarianism family values or simple logic in favor of Trump worship so they've given up their personal opinions in favor of Trump worship that explains exactly zero people you probably spend time with

[46:11]

people you probably spend time with Republicans have you ever met a Republican who gave up their Family Values because of whatever the President did have you ever met a Republican I'll bet there isn't one Republican on the planet earth who ever gave up their family values because the President had sex with a porn star what did did some of you leave your families because because Trump his personal life was different than yours how many of you renounced you religion so that you could be more like a Trump and sleep with porn stars and stuff nobody nobody there are simply people who said well we don't like that part but it's not affecting me we do like this other part we like the judges we like the economy we like to national defense we just don't like this other part exactly zero Republicans in the whole world have changed their personal feelings

[47:14]

have changed their personal feelings about anything they've just said well I'm looking at the costs and the benefits he's got some costs no doubt about it you know he's a pricey president but we think the benefits are greater it's a it's a bigger investment it's a riskier investment but we do it for these great benefits for the people who can't see that they believes that Trump is an occult to which I say I challenge you to name anything that the Democrats are doing that it's less cult-like then whatever Republicans are doing and the answer is you could make a story that both that either party is a cult I have personally made the case in my excellent book called loser think available everywhere there both parties are drifting into something like a cult but when I say it I'm talking about something specific when I say both Democrats and Republicans are drifting into something like a cult what I'm talking about is the silos of

[48:14]

talking about is the silos of information so if you if you start preventing yourself from contact with the other side that's sign of a cult if I said to you we're talking about Democrats and Republicans and you have to guess which group I'm talking about one of those oops is actively and aggressively decreasing contact with the other and making sure that other members of its group also avoid contact with the other group who am I talking about is that Republicans our Republicans asking other Republicans to spend less time with Democrats never heard of it never heard of that not even once our Democrats telling other Democrats to interact less and shun Republicans and therefore cut themselves off from whatever those words are yeah this is mostly what they're doing it's one of

[49:14]

mostly what they're doing it's one of the main things that's happening in the country so if you were to say all right what's the you know what are the requirements of being in a cult well it starts with you know believing crazy things but that applies to both sides right there's no one side that has the monopoly I'm not believing crazy stuff but there is one side that definitely has a big difference in restricting its own members from having contact with the outside world I think that's fair to say and I think even Democrats would agree with that generalization obviously these generalizations don't you know apply to every person by definition all right let's talk about if let's talk about predictions how many of you predicted probably most of you that the the Iranian military shot down the Ukraine air line probably most of you right and

[50:15]

air line probably most of you right and here's I like to say you should make predictions and then see how you did my prediction was based on incompetence so if you make a prediction based on incompetence watch your track record if if other people are saying well I think it was a clever plan to do X but there's another explanation that also fits the facts which is that it's incompetence you should always go with incompetence now you've seen me do it with the ups thing and I said okay you can have that much incompetence and it's actually not even unusual so the incompetence theory so far so far is barring out
I predicted that the the airline would that we would find out that the Iranian shut it down because the incompetence hypothesis is just always this likely wrong it's just always the likely one so I just keep I just stay with it no

[51:17]

I just keep I just stay with it no matter how tempting it is to go with the confirmation bias to stick with incompetence you'll be surprised I'll offer you right Iran started out calling it a big lie and now they've completely admitted that they did it and they feel terrible etc here's the question I have to ask you how much research did the Iranians need to do to learn that they had fired a missile now if you're another country you might have to look at the wreckage and see if see if the blast looks like it was coming you know from inside out you know you you can you know about what's on the black box if you're somebody else if you're not Iran you've got to do the forensics on the plane to find out what happened put a randon have to do that all Iran had to do is say anybody missing a missile how in the world did the military not know they had fired a

[52:18]

military not know they had fired a missile was there somebody and they had it was the head of the the military that was in charge of that area that fired the missile are you telling me the general didn't know he fired a missile seriously the general in charge of that area didn't know in the first 60 seconds of course he knew of course he knew somebody says it's automated there might be some automation but I imagine there's a human element of the final decision but the point is Iran knew from the first moment and they decided to try to lie about it until their forensics were just obvious and there was there was there's actual video of the missile hitting the plane so then they admitted it but seriously did Iran have to wait for the forensics I mean that's a good question

[53:20]

Trump is trying to make things even more interesting in a provocative way so the White House is apparently putting together a plan to increase the list of banned countries the countries that can't come to the United States you no matter what and the of course this has a bad history because it started out being called a Muslim ban because most of the countries originally were Muslim majority countries people are worried that the the upcoming additions to the list which no doubt will be challenged in court again but the additions people are assuming are mostly or all probably mostly Muslim majority countries so representative rashida atoll Abe has said that that's straight-up racism to which I say representative to Labe do

[54:20]

which I say representative to Labe do you know anything about Islam because Islam isn't a race the whole wasn't one of the strongest points about Islamic belief is that it doesn't matter what what race you are that's actually one of the strongest points of the religion is that they don't care what race you are and that's that's like really important so if the United States bans Muslims isn't that a variety of races by definition and that's that's the strongest part of it in my opinion is one of the strongest parts is that they do have that that ethic that it doesn't matter what race you are you just have to have this this type of thought you know um belief
and I asked you can they ever be racist to ban people based on their common belief system for example and I don't want to make this is not a comparison

[55:24]

want to make this is not a comparison all right so the next thing I'm going to say is I'm not comparing it to Islam I'm just taking you down a mental experiment all right so nothing I say now has anything to do with Islam suppose there was an elbonian country and elbow knee as you know is over there and boom era that's where it lives but suppose the people there had a belief that they were superior people and that they should kill all people in the United States and let's say that was a common belief in elbonia it has nothing to do with the race has nothing to do with the religion it's not even a religion it's just a a common preference that they should kill all people who are Americans should we have a policy that lets the men because doing otherwise would be discriminatory right now somebody's saying same as in the Islam that's not true it's not the

[56:26]

the Islam that's not true it's not the same as Islam because Islam is a big tent with some people who have extreme thoughts just like Christianity more in the past for Christianity but you know the vast majority don't have any thoughts like that but imagine if they did could you so here's the basic question is it ever appropriate to ban people by their common way of thinking in their common preferences for the future is that ever is that ever allowable and I would argue that if there were if you had a thriving Nazi Party in Europe and somebody applied to come to the well let me ask you this oh here's a perfect example I need a little fact-checking on this okay fact check me please if a German citizen who had let's say an affiliation let's say a German assistant who belonged to no you couldn't be a German

[57:26]

belonged to no you couldn't be a German citizen and belong to a Nazi Party probably have to be some other country so let's say there's some other European country where they have an actual Nazi Party a modern Nazi Party and there's a member of the modern Nazi Party who says I'd like to emigrate to the United States what do we let him in under our current rules would we allow an active member of a Nazi Party to immigrate to the US I don't know the answer that and again let me let me say it as clearly as I can I'm not saying that there's any comparison to that example to Islam all I'm saying is that they both are about a way of thinking and a belief system so forget about the ethnicities of anybody there are two belief systems if you believe that the belief system likely had people in it that were dangerous would our current constitution allow us to ban them based on belief independent of any race let me ask you this if

[58:29]

of any race let me ask you this if someone who is a devout Muslim who was also born in Great Britain was a citizen of a Great Britain and they wanted to to immigrate to the United States would the United States treat them will say unfairly because of their religion no right and it doesn't matter what ethnicity they are if there are if they're a British citizen especially born in in Britain would would any of our immigration rules disadvantage them and the answer is no so that's pretty clear that has to do with the the system that they're coming out of and whether or not they can vet their own citizens so this is one of those fake arguments in which the critics will try to make it about racism I don't think there's you know it's a it's a tough argument to make but we'll be more of that

[59:38]

hmm it's also been called xenophobic so representative jeyapaul said that the idea of banning some countries was xenophobic I had to look it up so I thought I sorta do what it meant you know like xenophobic not you know not liking people from other places or whatever but the actual definition is fear of strangers fear of people from other countries and cultures and stuff and I thought to myself well that's actually just what it is that's exactly what it is that way you wouldn't you wouldn't be contemplating banning some some group unless you had a fear of them so that's exactly what it is I don't know I don't know why that's why why would she consider that an attack because if we weren't afraid we wouldn't do it that's the whole point so that seems like just a description of what it is President Chavez is saying a different topic that

[1:00:38]

Chavez is saying a different topic that we don't want to pull out of Iraq unless Iraq pays us back for all the investments we put there now the first time I heard this I said to myself well that doesn't even sound like it's slightly possible to happen and then I looked at it in context which is he's saying the same thing with South Korea you should pay us he's saying the same thing to the Saudis you should pass and I'm kind of liking the larger picture the larger picture is that the enormous military that the US has does keep all of our allies safe there's there's no two ways about it the United States the United States spends an enormous amount which keeps us safe but has the dual effect of making other countries not have to have a big military wouldn't it be great to be an ally of the United States you're welcome Canada is Canada safe

[1:01:40]

you're welcome Canada is Canada safe from attack Canada is about as safe as you can get from attack United States now of course they have their own military very capable I'm sure but nothing in comparison to what the United States says so the president is I think wisely and cleverly trying to monetize the protection services that we offer to other countries and I think he's right about that it's a change of frame so the old frame was it's just about no goodness or defeating evil or whatever the old frame was but now the frame is that it's it's a good and a service that military protection is a product he's basically productized the stuff we were doing anyway now if we weren't doing it in the first place I might have some complaints about trying to commoditize or turn into a product our military because that sounds like

[1:02:40]

our military because that sounds like the worst idea in the world but what he's doing is saying we're doing this anyway we're not going to stop doing it and and we're doing something that is monumentally beneficial to other people I think that's exactly the right place to go and I also don't think any other president would have done this it's the sort of radical departure from the way we used to think he's the only one who could have done this and I think by the end of his second term the idea that other militaries or other countries should be directly paying for the service that we provide in terms of protection I think that's going to become standard because there's nothing wrong with it in other words there's it's hard to argue against it
it it's just that nobody brought it up before so yeah you certainly don't want to become a mercenary army but but if we're doing it anyway let's see if we can get paid I like his instinct on that I like it a lot I like a lot

[1:03:42]

I like it a lot I like a lot all right let's see what else we got going on here oh so here's I think I didn't summarize this as well the next time you see somebody calling the president impulsive google them or check their profile and what you'll find is that they tend to be journalists and artists you find me someone who's not already a pundit you know Mark Cuban's a special case because he's a successful business person but he's also he's in the game so somebody who's not in the game somebody who's just a business person and they're not about who's gonna win or lose there they're just running their business trying to stay out of trouble find me somebody like that who says that the president's decision-making is impulsive and that he has no strategy I don't think you'll find it and if you do it will be a special case all right oh my cat is just

[1:04:45]

special case all right oh my cat is just no I'm crazy on me today somebody says Elon Musk I'd have to google that but I doubt well let me let me let me google it right now I doubt the Elon Musk calls the president impulsive he may have all kinds of other problems Elon Musk Trump
impulsive so my belief is that Elon Musk is way too smart and way too experienced he definitely didn't say the president doesn't have a strategy nobody's saying that right I'm sure he didn't say that let's say to to to to to impulsive tweets by musk musk is being accused of being impulsive so it's it's

[1:05:46]

accused of being impulsive so it's it's that musk himself is being accused of being impulsive maybe the way he tweets that's about it I'll bet I'll bet you could not find a less impulsive person than you on musk if you're talking about the business end of it I'll bet you could not you can you could probably search forever you never find anybody less impulsive than an engineering engineers are yeah they're not that impulsive all right that's all for now I'll talk