Episode 781 Scott Adams: Iran’s Military Magic Trick, The Golden Age, What Comes Next

Date: 2020-01-08 | Duration: 55:47

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a 22 missiles and they ALL missed people? We’re on the brink of PEACE, because Iran was rational The missiles called a “proportionate” response to Soleimani death? Iran wants America out of Iraq…America wants to get out of Iraq Ukrainian plane went down in Iran last night, what happened? 29% decline in cancer deaths Alzheimers risk can be cut in half by physical and mental activity

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## Transcript

[0:08]

bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum hey everybody come on in here we got stuff to talk about don't we yeah lots of stuff turns out there was news all over the place last night there was news in the sky news in the ground news everywhere and you can't really enjoy the news until you've enjoyed coffee with Scott Adams but luckily you're here I'm here you have almost everything you need and when I say almost everything you need if you want to enjoy the simultaneous up you're also gonna need a cop or a mugger glass the tanker chalices tie in the canteen Joker flask a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like my coffee and somebody says I interrupted them listening to my book a loser you think that's a that's a lot of me that's too much of me you gotta choose alright get ready it's time for the dope immediate of the day the thing that makes everything better the simultaneous sip here it comes oh

[1:20]

well by now you're all caught up on the events of last night so there was there were a few dozen I know or maybe 15 missiles or 22 or something that doesn't matter but there were bunch of missiles that Iran shot from their territory into a rocky territory and specifically a shared Iraqi US and might have been some other countries there but it they shot at a base and despite all of those missiles were there 22 they think they shot at a few different places 22 missiles and all of them missed people 22 missiles and they all missed people now remember if you will that Iran recently attacked oil facilities in Saudi Arabia how good was their attack on Saudi Arabia pretty darn accurate wasn't it

[2:20]

Arabia pretty darn accurate wasn't it so one thing we know for sure is that Iran has the capability of an accurate attack but last night their attack was not accurate it was whatever is the opposite of accurate there is speculation that it was intentional what do you think was it intentional that they missed well let's say let's back up a little bit and start at the beginning the beginning is check your filters this is one of those check your filters moments now if you've been following me for a while you know what I meet for those of you who are new what I mean is that we all have different filters on life we're all in our own little bubbles we see world see we see the world subjectively some from the filter of the laugh some from the right and I always suggest what I call the persuasion

[3:22]

suggest what I call the persuasion filter now sometimes I depart that filter but the point is whatever your filter is that you're using to predict make a prediction and write it down or tell somebody I talked about that in my book loser think because if you want to see how well you understand the world or let's say how well your shelter interprets the world prediction is the only way you're going to get there right everybody has a filter that can explain the past or so they think but predicting the future that's that's where the you know that's where the winners and losers get separated so compare your predictions - let's say mine let me tell you what things I said and then we'll compare it to what happened I said Iran is a rational player a lot of people say Iran is just crazy they all want to die they make irrational decisions nothing they do make sense I said no we have decades of experience

[4:24]

I said no we have decades of experience with Iran and every time their ration now they're rational within their belief system of what it is that you know they want to accomplish so there's an Islamic you know kind of umbrella over all this stuff but within that it all it makes perfect sense now it might be some strategies that work some strategies that don't work maybe their preferences are different than ours but it all made sense everything they were doing had a reason had a path was a good try at least so I predicted that they would act rationally so far so good I also said and I don't know correct me if I'm wrong but I don't know if I don't know if anybody has said this directly except me well probably lots of people in the public hip sickness but can somebody fact check me on this has anyone else

[5:24]

fact check me on this has anyone else said what I said but let's say someone who's in the public eye somebody who's an expert a pundit somebody who's seen in the news has anybody else said what I said from the beginning which is that the Ayatollah got a promotion to the top spot when sulemani died so what I said was that if you've got one guy who's got a Koran that that being the Ayatollah and another guy who's got control of the entire military plus the intelligence services who's the boss it's always the guy with the weapons it's always the guy with the intelligence services there's no exceptions to that Iran wasn't the exception we apparently have been living under some kind of fiction that Khomeini was the top guy in Iran but it's pretty clear he wasn't so whatever Iran had been doing a week ago was because the

[6:24]

been doing a week ago was because the guy who was dead wanted it to happen right in a real world the guy with the weapons is in charge so so that so now we don't have confirmation of that but the basic idea is that how many was happy the Sullivan he got killed now let's look at the evidence to see if it tracks with what we've seen we saw a company crying in public over the death of Solomon II but the close-up shows no tears and we know that there's something about the Iranian culture where there's a where there's almost a theatrical crying that you do a mourner and mourning situations so apparently it was that no tears now I'm willing to be fact-check on that if somebody has if there's another photo of him actually shedding a tear that I would actually modify my opinion that might be

[7:25]

modify my opinion that might be different let's say I said I predicted that Iran would not attack in any direct way that could be attributed to them in other words the proxies might do things that were sort of a gray area but we wouldn't be entirely sure if Iran ordered it you know it would be some kind of weird gray area well that's not exactly what happened although I think we'll still see some proxies get involved because they're at least semi autonomous autonomous but talk about a gray area we got the best gray area ever and well let me give you one more thing I said another thing that I've been saying I've said this with the North Korea situation I said it this time and I remind you always that being on the brink of war looks exactly like being on the brink apiece because when you're on the brink of war that's when everybody gets focused that's when everybody's

[8:26]

gets focused that's when everybody's serious that's when everybody realizes you're out of time that's when everybody realizes you can't mess around anymore so being on the brink of war looks exactly like being on the brink of peace there's no difference and so I don't know who else was saying that we were on the brink of peace but I think I'm the only one and again will somebody fact check me on that was there anybody in the public eye who said this is shaping up like best thing for peace we've ever seen before the missile attack yeah is there anybody else who said that in the entire world at least in the public I don't think so I think I'm the only person who said that that we were really close to peace we'll talk a little bit more about that there's something that I have a private label for called the I call it the magic trick now a magic trick by its nature is that you believe

[9:27]

by its nature is that you believe something that's impossible happen such as a rabbit appears in a hat well that's impossible but it looks like it happened that's what a magic trick is right in international politics you sometimes need to do a magic trick and the magic trick in this case what was to do the impossible so Iran was tasked with doing the impossible that's the situation they were in here's the impossible situation Iran had to had to strike back the United States they had to it's built into their culture they the government needed it for domestic purposes they had to they had no no choice they had to strike back but at the same time they had to not strike back they had to strike back but they also had to not strike back because the whole country would be destroyed it was pretty clear that Trump was going to take out their major facilities if they say went too far so what is the solution to you have

[10:29]

far so what is the solution to you have to do something but you also have to not do something and they're both absolutes there's no wiggle room you have to do it and you have to not do it exactly the same time it's impossible so what do you do you do a magic trick and the magic trick is you attack without attacking you want to attack in the way that you can tell your domestic audience man we slap them around we slept at American in public around we not the public but we slept the military red man we slapped him in the face which is what the Ayatollah said he said we a slap in the face to the United States and the United States said that's it because it feels like you deliberately missed us because we know you can aim we just watched your aim as Saudi Arabia's facilities and there's not much left of them so all of those missiles all of the

[11:33]

them so all of those missiles all of the Mist that feels a little deliberate now there's also some reporting I'm not up-to-date on so maybe you can fill me in but there's some reporting that we got some warning the warning might have been a general warning so that would have been good enough probably but it might have also I'm just gonna say might it might have been a specific warning sort of a back-channel warning that says you know if you're at this base maybe get in a bomb shelter maybe you don't go out and in the tarmac so much maybe what stay away from that road and of the base you know just stay away from that area I wouldn't be surprised if the Americans had direct warning that there was going to be a magic trick so the magic trick has been pulled off how how rational do you need to be to pull off a magic trick this good I mean it's it's not this good and the senseless fooling us but it's

[12:35]

and the senseless fooling us but it's this good in the sense that it looks like it worked now is Iran rational would you at least agree with me that this was rational it's probably the most rational thing you've ever seen in your life good luck finding a solution to this situation that would be more rational than what Trump and the Ayatollah just did you know collectively they're their people this is the most clever rational thing you've got received right in front of you it's actually kind of impressive so here's the if you've watched me for a while you know that I like to take risks on my predictions especially I especially like the ones that are contrarian because they mean the most meaning that if you take a strong contrarian view and it turns out to be right such as predicting that Trump will

[13:36]

right such as predicting that Trump will be President that sort of thing that means more than something that was a 50-50 anyway you know if something is a ninety nine one and you take the one that probably means more than if it was a 50-50 and you got lucky you were on the right side so as soon as the missiles flew and we had the news that the missiles were starting to land but before we knew anything about the damage I tweeted this operations symbolic revenge has started now I just noted the time of that because I want to see if anybody else and again comparing predictions is what we're doing here so some will be wrong someone will be right I'm not I'm not saying all of mine are right I'm saying that the process is seeing which are right in which it wrong is very important for you as well as me and so I did that at 7:19 Easter time I don't remember when the when we first heard that there was no deaths but

[14:37]

heard that there was no deaths but that's how early I predicted that it was a symbolic act how symbolic means not intending to kill people right I mean obviously that's what it means so how are my predictions I got wrong that so far I think I'll still be right but I got wrong that there would be ambiguous proxy attacks I don't know that we've heard of any I think we're going to see more of those I mean I think going forward if only because Iran doesn't control everything all the time I mean there there must be independent groups who just want to you know send a rocket into Israel for their own purposes no matter what so probably we'll see that but from the beginning I said that we're closer to peace and that Solomon a is probably the problem think about this will you the officials in Iran have called their attack proportionate can just wrap your head

[15:38]

proportionate can just wrap your head around that Iran you know are let's say I'm gonna call them a rival not an enemy I don't like calling Iran the country an enemy because they're not there's basically one person in the country who's making some decisions we don't like the top guy and then there's you know seventy million Iranians that we think are pretty cool so Iran is not the enemy I like to always like to clarify that no matter how clear you think it was before you know you can't clarify that enough I think I over clarified and forgot my point but yeah I didn't forget my point but I'll circle back to it here's here's some other things that are fascinating about this somehow this week Iran and the United States solved each other's biggest problems were some of their biggest problems did you notice that now it seems to be somewhat

[16:42]

that now it seems to be somewhat accidental somewhat coincidental but it's kind of weird that all of our problems got solved simultaneously and here's what I mean what was Iran's biggest problem but or biggest problems number one the internal protests this is a sort of thing that makes the internal protests slow down doesn't it because the Iranians are saying oh you know maybe at least for now we're all Arabians because there's some danger it wouldn't be a normal response right if your country is potentially under attack that's a very focusing thing for nationalism so we've accidentally probably just temporarily but accidentally taking the steam and if any Iranian protests so that's that's good for Iran secondly we got rid of Solomon a who I believe was Iran's biggest problem and and this is just my speculation based on

[17:44]

and this is just my speculation based on evidence I've seen probably also the ayatollahs biggest problem and certainly the biggest problem for the citizens of Iran because he was causing all the trouble at the same time Iran seems to have solved our biggest problem which is that we didn't have a good path out of Iraq now we do suddenly we have a path to leave Iraq now I don't know if we will maybe we'll leave some bases maybe we'll I think we've reached what I call the Sundance Kid phase do you know if the Sundance Kid phase is if you ever ever watched the classic movie Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid there's an opening scene that is very famous among script writers because in terms of the script it's considered one of the strongest scenes ever written so it's famous for writers as well as just movie goers and the scene involves Robert Redford who

[18:44]

the scene involves Robert Redford who plays a character called the Sundance Kid who is a renowned gunfighter but not everybody knows him by face because it's the Old West so you don't have photographs and he's in a card game and he gets accused of cheating he didn't cheat but he gets accused of cheating by some Rando on the other side of the table and unbeknownst to the person who accused him of cheating he just accused the best gunfighter in the West of cheating which means this guy's gonna be dead in a minute unless he read nigs reneged on his accusation unless he recalls it and Butch Cassidy seeing this situation evolved and not wanting anybody to die tries to intervene he's not playing I don't know if he was at the table or he just walked in or something I care another scene exactly but butch Cassidy's like no you don't understand you know you don't want to do this and he tells the random guy that he's dealing with the Sundance Kid so suddenly the guy who has accused him of cheating just realized that he's seconds

[19:47]

cheating just realized that he's seconds away from being shot to death if he keeps up his accusation and the Sundance Kid looks at him and he says and he says essentially I'm butchering this but he says that he won't leave until the guy asks him to stay and the guys kind of confused and Sunday as kid just says asked me to stay you have to ask me to stay basically he's giving the guy way out and the guy finally understands what's going on knowing he could be shot to death in a moment and he says will you stay and the Sundance Kid and just the greatest movie scene every ghost now I've got to go Thanks takes his chips and he leaves so the point of that story being that the Sundance Kid couldn't leave until he was asked to stay because his honor depended on that that it was his decision likewise the American presence in Iraq is a little like that we'd love to leave

[20:48]

is a little like that we'd love to leave but not until they ask us to stay now who knows how this will go but if the Iraqi government could find its way to ask us to stay we might be a little more willing to leave I don't know if that's the case because we have lots of strategic purposes to be over there I suppose I just don't know what they are given the number of bases that we have it in the general area how much do we need bases in Iraq I don't know so I suppose we're there to protect them from the from Iran I don't know that didn't work so we may have solved accidentally solved each other's biggest problems and I think we know it because we've got a we've got a legitimate path out of Iraq and we've educated the public about what the situation is and the Ayatollah and he came out ahead oh here's what here's the part I forgot

[21:51]

oh here's what here's the part I forgot the circling back to it so Rand said that their attack on our base was proportionate response to us killing the head of their military what what the hell does a proportionate response even mean if that was a proportionate response I don't even know what proportion it means anymore we killed we killed the number one guy in their country he was the leader of the country effectively because he was you know he had the power of the Ayatollah because he had all the weapons we killed the top guy in their country they sent some missiles into the desert and then they said we're good proportionate what does that tell you about iran's opinion of salomon a it tells you they don't care he got killed that's how I read it I can't read this any other way when they say that that

[22:51]

any other way when they say that that was a proportionate response it could be just because they're trying to avoid war that would be a good reason actually but I can't see them calling it proportionate I feel as if they might say something more like well it's not proportionate but at least we're happy for now but calling a proportionate sort of makes Solomon a it looks like he wasn't that important in the first place if the if the equal response was sending some missiles into the desert come see it here's another good prediction Jack pasaba Kuenn it was very early in what looked like an attack he tweeted this initial reports always overstated military activity take a deep breath and wait for confirm to damage assessments now there's a tweet that really aged well I mean there was only a few hours until we knew that there was no human

[23:53]

until we knew that there was no human damage but that's that's an experienced tweet initial reports always overstate military activity keep that just keep that in mind you're just always that's always overstated I believe the Iranian press at one point reported the 30 Americans were killed and there was maybe NBC reported that somebody reported that and of course pulled it back later
here's an update on what I criticize President Trump for quite aggressively criticized him for saying that we might bomb Iranian quote cultural sites and I said that was a gigantic mistake because that's personal you know you don't want any of this stuff to be personal that's the last thing you want and saying will bomb the things that you know have meaning to your heart and your soul and your culture that was just I said just a mistake just a flat-out mistake now

[24:55]

mistake just a flat-out mistake now other people have suggested that the real reason for that was to tell Iran that they can't hide their good stuff in their cultural sites because we're gonna bomb it anyway that might be true in fact I would say that's likely true I would say it's likely true that the purpose of what Trump said was to warn her and that there's no safe place to hide any stuff don't put your good good missiles in the mosque because the mosque will disappear if you want to keep the mosque you know put the missiles somewhere else because the the missiles are gonna disappear either way it's up to you whether it's in a mosque I think that's productive but I think maybe the cost of it was too high in terms of how the Iranian public would would take that so I'm gonna still put that in a mistake category but it wasn't mistake that didn't have a let's say a purpose there may have been a military purpose that was accomplished by that at

[25:55]

purpose that was accomplished by that at the expense of some public impression we'll see if that was a good trade-off I don't know if there's any way to measure that Khomeini said the US should leave the region because military action like this is not sufficient what is important is ending the corrupting presence of America in the region so they still want America out of the region but you know just because it's corrupting I mean that's a pretty weak statement so there's that
one of the reasons I predict did that we would avoid all-out war with Iran will sound funny in retrospect now I suppose we could still have all-out war with Iran but it certainly doesn't look like it's heading that way and the weird thing is that we were on the brink of war or so many people thought over our agreement I've never seen that before of you normally when

[26:56]

seen that before of you normally when you have a war it's because you disagree on something who opens something you know or somebody wants to capture some these resources or it's revenge so there are reasons for war but have you ever seen people fight a war because they completely agreed on something and what I mean by that is that Iran mostly once the United States to leave Iraq at the same time the United States wants to leave Iraq I mean at least the public's do how often do you get a war when you both violently agree on the main point the United States wants to get the hell out of Iraq in retrospect now you look at it and you say okay now that the the fear and the emotions are down when you're looking about looking at it from the perspective in history you're gonna say to yourself was it really likely we would have an all-out war over an agreement over a

[27:57]

war over an agreement over a disagreement yes but over an agreement that's weird now the details of how we would leave and when we're certainly up in the air but basically we're on the same page we want to get the hell out of there
so here's a here's what I'd like to see somebody turn into a meme for me maybe you could tweet it at me I'd like to see the death count from solamente so here here's the here's the number of people that Saleh mani is responsible for their deaths directly or indirectly is responsible apparently since he was the head of the military he is responsible for something like 15 Iranian citizens who were protesters being killed by the regime so that would be 1,500 Iranians the Salomon he killed in his own country there were of course

[28:57]

in his own country there were of course the passengers in his car some Iraqi some some not but he's certainly responsible for the deaths of the people in the car indirectly because he was a target 40 Iranians died mourning the death of Solomon II so that's 40 Iranians who didn't need to die except that Solomon he lived if you hear some noise my cats going crazy in the background then you have this tragic story of the Ukraine airline that coincidentally crashed after takeoff from Tehran at about the same time the Rockets were being fired okay is that a coincidence I don't think that's a coincidence eventually we're going to find out that Iran shot down their own airline and on it where I think 76 Iranian passengers and some bunch of Canadians who were victims as well so that's 76 Iranians that probably would not have died except for Solomon a

[29:58]

not have died except for Solomon a having once lived and then how many Iraqis have died because of something that's all a man agent that's a big number right we don't know I don't know if that number is so I'd like to see the death count of non Americans you know just sort of the list of people who mostly Iranians especially but Iraqis and Iranian who died because Solomon II was who he was you know either directly or indirectly how many died it's a big number we should be looking at that Ian Bremmer who you might know from Twitter and from various news programs he's often in the news as an expert he's a political scientist author columnist at time and president of Eurasia group all of that means that he knows what he's talking about in international events and he tweets this this doesn't he said

[31:02]

and he tweets this this doesn't he said this doesn't mean it's the end of us Aram conflict there's no mission accomplished but for everyone who thought killing Salomon a was going to lead to war now it established red lines and deterrence if US now wants to engage in diplomacy there's a real window there it is there's a real window we're closer to peace than we are to war and at least there's one expert in international stuff who is recognized that recognize that that and trying to call it out Joe Biden called Trump quite quote dangerously incompetent for killing Salomon a does it still look like that this morning do you think the Democrats can call Trump dangerously incompetent if what we got was this this looked a

[32:04]

if what we got was this this looked a little more like amazingly right on target it looks like history is going to absolve Trump for taking out the Soliman a too early to say but if I had to predict I would say that this will be taking Oh Solomon a I think is going to be Trump's greatest international success if it leads to something good for the ramp now there are two paths that Iran could take we don't know which path they will take one path is that they the scariest path is that they say oh let's listen out fight anymore we'll just go back to the way things were but the things the way things were is that they've they will develop nuclear weapons and they would keep funding proxies to attack Israel and anybody else we like the smartest thing they could do is if they intended to be that

[33:06]

could do is if they intended to be that bad actor going forward is to say no no war now and the United States would probably agree and then they would just go back to business as usual which would be as dangerous as it was before so that's a good chance that they'll just go back to you know what they were doing before but there's another possibility and that possibility has to do with the fact this Solomon II was the mean obstacle to a better world so the Ayatollah well let me put it this way war is a young man's game conquest is a young man's game now if you're a historian I'd like I'd like to hear some exceptions but mostly my understanding is they younger guys you know their 50s 40s etc tend to be the ones who are creating war and by the time you get to 80 you're starting to think well yeah it's not the last thing I wanted to do before I die do you think the Ayatollah

[34:09]

before I die do you think the Ayatollah wants to be on his deathbed which can't be that far away I mean he's a pretty old guy do you think he wants to be on his deathbed having brought Iran into a major war probably not do you think Solomon a would have been happy bringing Iran into a major conflict if there was some chance that he could you know gain territory and power and all that maybe so so I think that the difference is somebody says it's a testosterone difference I think you're right the younger males have more testosterone and probably more aggressive tendencies in general so my guess is that however a war like Solomon a was and remember I think he was the top guy until he got taken out I doubt that Khamenei at his current age and the Kurdish situation is ition for violence probably not he might be I'm not gonna can't rule it out right so I'm gonna say this is that

[35:11]

out right so I'm gonna say this is that this is sort of a toss-up there's a 50% chance that nothing will change and Iran will just keep doing bad stuff and develop a nuclear weapon but there's at least a 50% chance that the Ayatollah wasn't quite on board with whatever Solomon a was trying to get accomplished now given that Iran has has a let's say responded with an almost purely symbolic attack could they be convinced to take their jihad their war there there let's say the revolution Islamic Revolution could they be convinced to take it to the Internet and the war of ideas could Iran be convinced now now that their most warlike general is off the field could they now be convinced that they can have the war they want the revolution they want but take it to the field of ideas if they can't convince

[36:12]

field of ideas if they can't convince people that their ideas are better through the internet through conversation through debate through through persuasion if that doesn't work they're gonna have to question the power of their own God because if God can't win let you win a debate on the Internet well he's not helping you as much as you want let's talk about that plane so the plane killed so tragically the and what are the odds that it would it be a ukrainian flight it's ukraine international airlines i don't know what to say about this all last night people were tweeting at me and messaging me about the simulation the i always talk about code reuse because the same the same events and stories repeat in ways that you think well that can't be repeating there's no reason that could repeat and and and obviously the fact that it's a ukraine airplane that went down with iranians on

[37:15]

airplane that went down with iranians on board makes everybody say what are the odds that it would be an ukrainian airline of all things what are the odds of that now i'm not going to say that's proof of the simulation i'm just going to say wow that's weird
there was an Iranian official who tweeted just the Iranian flag as you know when President Trump did his actions against Albany he the only thing he tweeted that evening was an American flag and some top official in Iran sort of paste him meaning matched him by an Iranian flag when they when they attacked back when they symbolically attack attacked back and I thought to myself that's actually a pretty good sign because that is a conversation when people are in a conversation they tend

[38:16]

people are in a conversation they tend not to kill each other it's when the conversation stops you have to get worried and when the when Iran sort of mocks the president I don't know if it's mocking or meeting him halfway know what would it be called to be I guess matching his messaging by tweeting their own flag I feel as though that's a conversation meaning that they're they're being interactive with us as long as they're being interactive the meaning that what they do is because of what we do and they're they're following our communication and they're matching it and stuff those are all good signs that those are the signs of somebody who wants to get a deal done now I may be reading too much into that because it might have been just one Iranian official who thought it would be a funny tweet or a provocative tweet or something so it might have been just that but the things you look for are where they're they're matching your conversation you want you want to look for signs of engagement you know like

[39:18]

for signs of engagement you know like like if if we pull they they push yeah if you're attached by a string let's call it a string theory if you feel attached by a string that's a good sign
how would you like to be a Democratic candidate for president this week because you almost have to hope for the failure of American foreign policy for any chance to win let me tell you if if the next several months what comes out of this is the Trump makes progress with maybe even the nuclear stuff I don't know that that will happen that's that that would be the hardest ask what as possible and they took and they may have we may be in the best place we've ever been with Iran in at least in recent decades so if that happens what do you do if you're a Democrat running against them like do

[40:19]

Democrat running against them like do you actually end up at home saying I wish those missiles had killed somebody like what what the heck are you doing and that must be the most the most annoying thing that things are going so well and I think they are going well here's a question I have about that jet that went down now it's being reported at least in one publication I think Daily Mail I saw at the UK publication that there were quote holes holes in the fuselage meaning looking like it had been hit by some kind of explosion or something which would indicate that it was taken down by a military action accidentally presumably I don't know that I can look at holes in a wreck because you know it's basically there's some holes you know in the fuselage on the ground and I look at

[41:20]

fuselage on the ground and I look at that and I go I don't know does that mean does it mean what it might mean or does it mean nothing I don't know seems like if if your whole plane gets destroyed there could be holes in the fuselage that would look like something else but here's my question why was the airport opened why was turan's Airport sending planes into the air at the same time they were sending missiles into the air wouldn't it have been just sort of good military I don't know good hygiene to say immediately call the control tower at moment you something you don't want to tell them in advance right but the moment that missiles are launched shouldn't the first phone call be to your own airports and say close down close down close down military action you know get will get back to you but stop all planes so that's just a question I don't know enough about the

[42:21]

question I don't know enough about the situation but why was the airport open the main airport in Tehran like I don't understand whether that was open now I assume that we're gonna find out that Iran shot it down don't you wouldn't you assume that that's what we're gonna you know even if we don't have a confirmed baby they'll never give us the black box that seems possible but why was the airport open so I think we're on a weirdly good path I don't know when the president is going to talk maybe he's already talking but when the president talks we're going to know a lot more about that let me talk about some other stuff every time every time YouTube D monetizes my videos because these periscopes get downloaded and then uploaded to YouTube in an hour - but every time that YouTube D monetizes me

[43:22]

every time that YouTube D monetizes me I'm going to tweet two commercials for what other competitors so I'll just do this forever so you can ignore the tweets after a while but there are several competitors one of them is rock FEM ROK FIM and my content is already on rock fin but you have to be a subscribe paid subscriber to see it bit suit bi t CH ut bit suit as a competitor and something called lb are y dot TV library lb or y dot TV so there's a competitors to YouTube I like to give them some attention whenever YouTube D monetizes me which they do every day for no reason by the way YouTube doesn't give any reason and I know there's no reason because every day we ask them to review it manually and every day they reverse it
it so if there were had been reasons they wouldn't reverse it but they do reverse it every time so I know there are no reasons except let's say corporate

[44:23]

reasons except let's say corporate reasons let me give you some good news reported today that the cancer death rate declined to 29% from 1991 to 2017 including a 2.2 percent drop from 2016 to 2017 the steady 26 year decline is driven by long term drops and death rates for the the big cancers 29 percent that's pretty good and I think that we're not even close to where this could go so we've got a really big foothold on cancer here's another one apparently the we know now from studies that the risk of Al's Eimer at least the symptoms of Alzheimer can be cut in half by mental and physical activity in other words if you keep your mind active and your body active your risk of Alzheimer is half or at least a half as much impact think

[45:25]

at least a half as much impact think about that half just by being active now of course that's my mantra if you've read my book had a feel and almost everything and still win big you know that I'm big on staying active every day and keeping mentally active I believe that's why I am mentally like a teenager always active and then the most fun story of the day there's a British man who attempted to burn down a synagogue that's not the funny part there's nothing funny about burning down the synagogue but in this particular case there's a security video of him putting the the gas through a window he broke and then he throws in the match and the match lights it up and the whole thing blows back in his face it catches his hair on fire and so look in my Twitter feed if you want a guilty pleasure it's harder to get a more guilty pleasure than watching a synagogue arson catch his own hair on fire there are very few

[46:26]

his own hair on fire there are very few things that you'll enjoy more than that
unless you're a good person apparently I'm not a good person because I enjoyed that too much
somebody's mocking me not me but somebody's putting British man in quotes yes there may be more information on who that British man is but we don't know that now so oh yes and then apparently there's some there's some kind of success with the nick-san man and the the Covington kids he was one of the Covington kids and he sued CNN and apparently he's making some success there but I don't know that details yes CNN settled that's the best report but remember settling does not mean guilty settling does not mean you've admitted you're guilty anyway yeah we

[47:28]

admitted you're guilty anyway yeah we don't know how much the settlement is probably we never will I imagine that'll be that'll be confidential 25 million mmm-maybe reported settlement was 27 million somebody's saying in the comments I don't know if we'll ever find that out yeah I would be I would be skeptical about the reporting because I'm pretty sure they're not allowed to talk about it so anything you hear it would be somebody who's not allowed to talk about it and maybe they're not so incredible so somebody says they settled to prevent having internal documents released in Discovery well that would be a good reason the other reason to settle is you think you're gonna lose you don't need to worry about the document thing it could be just sufficient that if you took it to court you would lose more so they decided to make it go away yeah all

[48:29]

they decided to make it go away yeah all right but that's death story you know those stories don't interest me as much because they're really about one person you know one person's situation and those are less interesting than things that affect all of us all right there's an Amazon Alexa loop a ring to wear and control is that a thing somebody because I was talking about using it's funny I had it in my hand a ring to control things and somebody's acting as if that already exists I'm just see a loop oh my god it looks like it might exist wait did this just get introduced this is brand new uh-huh this would be weird oh my god there it is introducing now you can't

[49:31]

there it is introducing now you can't see it let me let me bring down the temperature on this there it is there's a picture of the Amazon ring for controlling things I'm having kind of a freakout moment yeah did this go out today like the day after I talked about it someone made it yesterday Oh somebody says I heard about it last week yes it's tech week in Vegas it's been out for a while somebody says okay well I hadn't heard of this but so I don't so I think it doesn't count as a prediction because I predicted the past apparently but if you look at Dilbert comics from decades ago you'll see that I predicted the ring as the controlling device now let me say something else about Amazon's digital assistant whose name I will not mention because I have one behind me I don't

[50:31]

because I have one behind me I don't want to trigger it I've been living with the Amazon digital assistants in different rooms and sort of living that life where you've got basically a robot that you can talk to it any time and I got to tell you I am completely addicted to it meaning that when I travel also sometimes being Hotel and it won't have a digital assistant actually the high-end hotels actually do have an Amazon digital system sometimes Google so I am two hotels are putting them in the hotels but when I go to a hotel and I'll be standing in the hotel room and I'll start to talk to the computer and there isn't one and and I'll really feel the lack of it in other words several times a day let me tell you my one of my greatest uses for the for the device is asking at what time it is because there are lots of times when you have your hands full your phone is on the other side of the thing you're doing something you know you're

[51:32]

you're doing something you know you're in the bathtub there's just some reason that you can't get to something that will tell you the time ask you at the time asking at the weather asking at the hours of stores I'm talking to the thing all day long so I go through my life talking to the computer in my house like I'm on the on the spaceship enterprise and I'm talking to the computer I gotta tell you I gotta tell you it's the future it is clearly the future I will also tell you that if your only experience with a digital assistant is apples you know and I want to say its name either but si RI if your only experience is the Apple product you don't know what you don't know what a digital assistant can be the Apple product is kind of terrible compared to the Amazon digital assistant at least if you talk about the the phone version of their digital system it's a whole

[52:33]

their digital system it's a whole different deal Amazon really is good at really really good the the Amazon digital system this is the future you know you live with it in a while now I imagine that Google's product is probably pretty good maybe as good maybe better but if you live with it for a while it's just obvious everybody's gonna have one it's obvious all right how are we doing here I think we I think we've done it right stay on live during the presidential announcement in five minutes well I like to keep these periscopes to an hour or less when I can do it so I'm gonna I'm gonna take my leave and then we can all watch the president's address look for here's what to look for in the president's address if the president is on his game and I think you will be you you know who who is better at rising to an occasion who

[53:33]

is better at rising to an occasion who is better rising to an occasion well this president is the best ever and knowing and knowing what a moment is you get what I'm talking about right the president understands the show he knows when the third act happens he knows when there's a moment nope nobody's ever been like this before he has the best combination of talents you know the political plus the showmanship reality TV people historians will someday say that was exactly the right experience for being president on top of other experience but this is going to be a moment this this and I think one of the reasons that the president waited a little bit he really needs to get this right this address is likely one of the most important public statements that will ever be made by any president now

[54:34]

will ever be made by any president now it could be you know sort of a big nothing that's possible but in all likelihood the way he handles this the very next thing he says will be determinative a great deal to the entire Middle East and to this country and to politics in general this is a big big moment let me tell you what Trump probably knows that not everybody knows yet what he probably knows is that this is an opening and let's see if he takes it so what I would look for is for him to go a little bit tough on Iran to make sure that they know we can still be tough but look for him to to open a door so there's going to be a there's going to be a tough statement of you know you better not do that again we have a big military you're in trouble so see so you can see a little bit of a threat but expect him to open a door and say hey no better time to talk let's get it done

[55:35]

better time to talk let's get it done that's what I expect he might go a different way but it's gonna be a moment and I would not miss it for anything so I'm gonna go and watch get ready to watch that and we will talk later