Episode 777 Scott Adams: What Happens Next With Iran Because Nothing else is Happening
Date: 2020-01-04 | Duration: 41:57
Topics
My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a Lindsey Graham has done something massively important Is Iran rational or irrational? Will there be major retaliation from Iran? Iranian public outrage…where is it? Was Soleimani preventing Middle East peace? Gallop poll: Trust in news by political party CNN desperate attempts to keep impeachment alive Past potential crimes and future potential crimes
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## Transcript
[0:05]
pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom hey come on in here everybody I see you gathering around reaching for your vessels of which beverages will soon be contained in which beverages will be contained well you're probably here for the simultaneous tip and for my analysis of Iran because who better channelize the Middle East and a cartoonist but first uh you're here for the simultaneous hip and all you need is a cup or mug or glass a tank or cello sir Stein a canteen Joker flask good vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the dopamine did of the day the thing makes everything better the simultaneous ed go
[Music] shivers total shivers so yesterday there
[1:10]
shivers total shivers so yesterday there was news in the afternoon I guess about some major attack in in Iraq and today the news is nobody's aware of any major attacks in Iraq what the hell was that what the hell was all that news about some major air attack on some some some group it looks like maybe it just didn't even happen that's the world we live in crazy let me say more about what Lindsey Graham has done for the country and for the world sometimes the smallest things are the most important things because they it's just the exactly the right thing I think Lindsey Graham has done something really important they'll look at it doesn't look important but it's something really important like so important
[2:11]
important it's civilization all that important and you may maybe you didn't even notice it and this is what he did and I'll control contrast this to what is normally done right what is normally done when two countries are at each other is that you make vague threats about wiping the other one off the map you saw with President Trump when he said to North Korea there will be fire and fury well what the hell does that mean well it just means some kind of war we kill a lot of your people kind of you know kind of generic now in the case of fire and fury it was really good generic because there's fire there's fury yeah really really making him sort of visualized the carnage that's coming but Lindsey Graham did something so much smarter because Iran is a different situation they don't have nukes yet so
[3:11]
situation they don't have nukes yet so you can handle it differently he said now a couple times or probably several times in public that Iran's next the next targeted in Iran will be the refineries no he didn't say it as directly as I said it next target but he said it clearly and he said a few different times and a few different new shows if Iran causes you know more trouble or retaliates the refineries could be blown up and here's the beauty of it do you think that Iran believes they could protect there are three refineries I think there are three I doubt they think that there's no way that the Iran thinks that if the United States wanted to destroy their three refineries it would take more than a few hours to do it so the threat is specific and here's the good part because we took out Saleh money is credible if we had
[4:14]
out Saleh money is credible if we had said last week hey we might somebody saying there's 11 refineries so we'll have to fact-check that but whatever the number is we can we can certainly take care of 11 or 3 so so here's the thing he's got this very specific threat there would not have been credible even one week ago am i right one week ago if we'd said hey Iran if you if you do anything else against us we'll take out your refineries which will end your economy one week ago that was not a credible threat today hundred percent credible president Trump created a situation where the next threat is a hundred percent credible Lindsey Graham has I think is probably the architect of the idea that we should be in this specific you've never seen this before have you historians in fact check me
[5:18]
have you historians in fact check me when was the last time you saw that something this specific as a here's your price you know here's the menu here's the menu and look in the menu right here says you retaliate that's your menu choice and then over here is the price of it it's all of your refineries no no human deaths so Lindsey Graham is not promising will kill even one person and Iran why because we like irradiance the the pure of fact of it is that if you put in an American and a typical you know westernized Iranian in the same place they're gonna have a good time we love ratings we we we want to kill zero irradiance alright we're talking about the public and so Lindsey Graham even tells them where the bombs are gonna be you know if Iran attacks you know something let's say there's some damage from an Iranian
[6:19]
say there's some damage from an Iranian attack some kind of revenge attack and let's say the even comes from a proxy but we know it's Iran behind it wouldn't you think that the people working at the refineries would say ah break time and get out of the refinery now we can't guarantee that every person will get away from the fizzle or refinery so you might have casualties but we certainly told them as specifically as we possibly could those refineries will disappear under these very specific conditions there's some retaliation that's it it's very clear so here that here are the things which are special about this clarity you've never seen this kind of clarity before clarity is very persuasive compared to something vague will happen you better watch out because vague things will happen to you that doesn't necessarily stop anybody but if you're
[7:20]
necessarily stop anybody but if you're that specific and again I've never seen this so I need a historian to tell me as as somebody says wikipedia says or 14 refineries will figure out how many refineries but it's also is probably true that there are three big ones if it's like everything else in the world there there are some of them that are the important ones so probably if you took out the big three you you know that would be the end of the economy just guessing but that would be a typical situation so so Lindsay's got the specificity it's a non human target assuming that the humans who work there are smart enough to get out of the way I think we'd probably even give them warning its non-human its economic it's an economic attack so we've just told them that we'll attack them economically in a nonhuman place we have we ever seen
[8:20]
in a nonhuman place we have we ever seen that never before now here's the other beauty of it a refinery is a visual I've told you too many times the persuasion works best when you can put a picture in somebody's head when the picture you put in somebody's head is there will be consequences well that's not a picture or what are the consequences but if you tell me your refinery will blow up I can picture that now I don't know exactly what a refinery looks like but you've got a picture in your mind right you see the buildings and the pipes and the you know the the big pipes going everywhere and you know you've got big tanks and stuff so your brain automatically sees a refinery and sees it blown up that's really good all right amazingly good persuasion and here's the best part Lindsey Graham is the only one of the
[9:21]
Lindsey Graham is the only one of the few people maybe Marco Rubio also but Lindsey Graham was golfing and advising the President on this solemn Annie attack and so I ran when they hear Lindsey Graham say your refineries are next do they think that that's pretty reliable yeah yeah Lindsey Graham was just sitting in the golf cart with the president United States we just killed Salah many yeah if Lindsey Graham says your refineries are next that's pretty reliable so you have everything going right and this threat you've never seen a threat this good I would say am I wrong about that that we've never seen a threat this well constructed it's a well constructed threat specificity it's visual there's no Iranian people who have to get killed
[10:22]
no Iranian people who have to get killed I mean there might it could happen but you don't want that you want them to you know get out of the area and it is credible for the first time I've never seen anything this good now let's get into the heads of the Iranian leadership okay now I've introduced the idea which is starting to catch on and not necessarily because of me but the idea is starting to grow in popularity and the idea is this Salamone might not have been so popular within Iran certainly not within Iraq he might not have been so caught and there may have been elements who were happy if he left so that's sort of a growing thought have we seen massive demonstrations of the Iranian public now we saw mourners who were chanting death
[11:22]
we saw mourners who were chanting death to America who are actually part of the funeral procession so of course you can get you know a few thousand people who are part of the mourners procession to chant death to America but what is the what is the let's say the average public saying right now what what is the average Iranian to think about this do you think the average Iranian who does not want war thought that solemn any who is doing nothing but creating war do you think that they were happy about him I have a feeling that Iran behind closed doors is saying well maybe we wouldn't have chosen this path but now we're here now we're here it might be an opportunity so I was looking at again the the threats from Iran here's another one so here's the newest threat now keep in mind that since this is the biggest
[12:24]
in mind that since this is the biggest news all of our news organizations are actively looking for Iranian officials to say threatening things so if there were any high-level Iranian officials saying threatening things we'd probably know it because we're looking for it right so here's the latest one so Abu Hamza Abu Hamza this is CNN's reporting commander of the Revolutionary Guards I think it's seeing them in the southern province of ker man foreshadowed a possible attack on core to vital American targets located in the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation so here's what this commander of the Revolutionary Guards and the southern province did he get that he's a command of one part of the Revolutionary Guard he is not an Ayatollah he's just a commander of one part just one area of
[13:26]
commander of one part just one area of the Revolutionary Guard and that was the best we could get for an authoritative Iranian revenge opinion right it's kind of weak isn't it he's just he's just a local commander of the rep of the Revolutionary Guard and here's his threat he says quote the Strait of Hormuz is a vital point for the west and a large number of American destroyers and warships crossed there Abu Hamza said according to a Reuters report vital American targets in the region he goes on have been identified by Iran since long time ago some 35 US targets in the region as well as tel-aviv are within our reach that's it the closest they confined to an Iranian threat was a local commander who says that we know what assets the United
[14:28]
that we know what assets the United States has in the area with that said he just says that we know what assets you have any meaning what ships are in there that's it that's the best threat this is sounding a lot like no threat am i right it am I am I misjudging this that the Iranians are really really holding back on the rhetoric why would they hold back on the rhetoric I think they're reassessing the situation possibly as an opportunity now an opportunity for peace says now I hate to be the now now let's say that you go inside the Iranian decision-making you know behind closed doors all right let's say you're in the meeting presumably there are meetings right so I think
[15:29]
there are meetings right so I think we're getting together and they're trying to decide what to do how does that conversation go imagine the conversation the private security conversations at the top of the Iranian leadership and they say you know Lindsey Graham just credibly said that if we retaliate we're going to lose our refineries which means we'll lose our economy which means that the public in Iran is likely to overthrow the government do we want to take that chance now people people this is a perfect test of your worldview I've been saying very unpopular ly very unpopular ly I've been saying for years that the Iranian leadership is not insane I've been saying that they're actually pretty smart about pursuing their self-interest
[16:29]
smart about pursuing their self-interest and indeed even all the stuff that you've seen lately if you're being if you're being objective Iran is killing it lately meaning that Iran has spread its influence to completely dominate Iraq a country that was a war with them you know just a few decades ago Iran has completely expanded their influence they've got all these proxies they're the biggest problem in the Middle East to us which means the the most powerful thing so the Iranians have not only acted rationally in my opinion from the start but successfully to successfully and rationally so my worldview is that the Iranians are rational decision makers and everything they do they've done so far back set up now we have a situation in which they either can act in revenge or not act in revenge which
[17:32]
in revenge or not act in revenge which of those two is the rational path well I would argue that the rational path is no response or maybe maybe they have some proxy do something just a just a test and then to you try to deny that they had anything to do with it oh they were rogue maybe they could find some gray area where it's not obviously an Iranian attack maybe but my here's my prediction the Iranians do believe at this point and they should Lindsey Graham's threat is credible would you agree that would you agree with that that behind closed doors the Iranian leadership is looking at what Lindsey Graham is saying and looking at what Trump just did killing so many and they believe it's credible that the refineries are next and that
[18:33]
that the refineries are next and that anything they do is going to trigger the end of their economy don't you believe they think that's true so I think they're rational decision makers we're going to say oh crap this is definitely not gonna work our next move is just not going to work so if they're crazy this is what will happen next a rocket attack on Israel all right so if you want to test your worldview see if there's a rocket attack on Israel now I'm not going to count a few stray Rockets because you can't discount the fact that there's just a local you know local Hezbollah person who shot some rockets and maybe didn't have you know the blessing from Iran so you might see a few but if Iran is crazy which many of you have said many of you said it's a death cult they're irrational they're crazy if that's your view you
[19:36]
they're crazy if that's your view you should expect their next move to be a military move against the United States am i right that would be the most irrational thing you could do if I'm right and the Iranians are rational people who have always been rational never left that path they will act rationally again because that's who they are and they will not attack because they believe they will lose their refineries and that's too much all right so so put down your bet all of those who have you been on the side of Iran is irrational I would think you'd be willing to bet again that they'll act irrationally once again and and you could be right right this will be this will be the test of the theory of whether they have an irrational death cult and and everything and that everything is all about dying as long as they get is real - and so if you put
[20:39]
they get is real - and so if you put yourself in the Iranians position the only way I can see something like a major retaliation again I'm going to say major because I do expect it seems likely there's some individual Hezbollah commander who's gonna fire a rocket and that just feels like that's going to happen but from the top like a big attack like on a warship an attack on the homeland an attack on a major US base an attack on Israel proper I don't think so I do not think so
alright let's talk about something else let's talk about oh and then the other thing to look for is the missing outrage from Iran and Iraqi citizens now you may some of you I'll bet you had the same experience I had yesterday so
[21:40]
the same experience I had yesterday so yesterday I was getting private messages from people people were privately telling me that they know people in Iran or Iraq and that the people that they know personally were behind closed doors celebrating the death of Solomon a did any of you get messages like that I got zero messages from people who said they'd heard people they know are unhappy about it but I did get several messages from people who said yeah I know I know somebody over there I see one yes oh actually a bunch of yeses look at all the yeses going by yes I did yes all that yes yes saw on Twitter some people saw it on Twitter oh I think most of you probably just saw some tweets on Twitter but I don't know how many of you heard it privately but privately I heard they were celebrating I heard zero stories of anybody who was unhappy except for like mourners but you expect the mourners to be unhappy of course look at all the yeses I don't
[22:41]
course look at all the yeses I don't know if that's really meaningful because you may just see them on Twitter all right one of the things that the administration is saying is that killing so many was really about stopping future attacks can you explain to me why killing the top guy would prevent future attacks like now threatening the oil refineries might prevent future attacks but if you if the only thing you're doing is killing the leader and he's replaced five minutes later do we think that the replacement didn't know what the plan was is the replacement not on board with the plan and how does that work so I think this is one of those cases where I'm gonna be honest I don't trust the official story so the official story is that we knew there was some
[23:42]
story is that we knew there was some specific credible large-scale attack in the Middle East against US assets and they're killing this guy stopped it I'm gonna go on record and say I don't believe that I just don't believe that's true now I'm not saying it's false I'm saying that it falls into the category of things you should not automatically think is true so just because people you like and respect and most of you probably you know most of you were probably Trump supporters and you think that Mike Pompeo is doing a good job I do I to me it looks like Pompey was doing a great job actually
and but just because you think he's doing a good job and you trust him this might not be one of those situations where your government feels a necessity to tell you exactly what's going on in a perfectly accurate way now I've said this before we'll say it again your government doesn't owe you the
[24:44]
your government doesn't owe you the truth when it comes to national defense you might not like to hear that but I'll say it again your government does not owe you the truth on the topic of national defense they do owe you a good national defense they do owe you that but if they have a choice between lying to you which gives you the best national defense or telling you the truth which puts you in trouble which do you want them to do if Mike Pompeo is your guy you trust them to do what's good for the United States do you always want him to tell you the truth I do not I do not ask of Mike Pompeo or President Trump or the next president or the one after that I do not ask them to tell me the truth all the time I want them to tell me what keeps me safe as long as they they have
[25:47]
keeps me safe as long as they they have a good idea that that's the case all right a little bit of a little bit of shading the truth might have a National Defense purpose and I'm okay with that it doesn't matter what party is doing it all right Gallup had a poll about trust in the media we assume that means trust in the news and here's the results of the Gallup poll by party affiliation of who trusts the news all right 69% of Democrats trust the media 69% to more than two-thirds of Republicans is only 15% and 36% of Independence now 15% of Republicans say they trust the news now what's funny about that is I always laugh that any poll 15% of people don't know what day it is you know it doesn't
[26:47]
know what day it is you know it doesn't matter what the question is or who he asked 15% of people just don't even know their own name so the fact that 15% of Republicans trust the media it's like zero it's a lot like zero because remember 15% will say it anything I'm sorry slipped out fifteen percent of any group will say anything just anything you know fifteen percent will believe they are ghosts fifteen percent will believe they died yesterday I mean anything so Republicans basically have close to zero trust in the news whereas Democrats have been as high as like 76 percent I think at one point and they're still pretty high as 69 percent now what what explains that difference can you explain the difference well part of the difference is they're Republicans see the news on both sides isn't that is
[27:48]
the news on both sides isn't that is that the big difference I would say the big difference is that the Democrats see the news only from their own silo of news so if they turn on CNN and then they switch to channel two MSNBC it's the same news so why wouldn't they think it's pretty reliable every time they turn on the news they turn on NPR same news as CNN same news as MSNBC you think that one of them would be saying something different if it were wrong so all the news they see their entire silo New York Times you know Washington Post it all agrees why wouldn't they if if all the news you saw agreed with all the other news you saw wouldn't you think it was probably credible I think I would but most of you watching this periscope and most Republicans also watch Fox News also read breitbart also you know see the Drudge Report also
[28:49]
also you know see the Drudge Report also see other stuff and they also see social media which is also somewhat but not as much siloed by political preference yeah in that case itself siloed I guess in both cases itself siloed but Republicans see both sides of the news Republicans know that the fine people hoax is a hoax Democrats don't even know that and Matt imagine if you lived in the world in which you didn't know that the most important story of the entire of the presidency was actually fake suppose you didn't know from the start that the rush occlusion thing was was BS it would be so easy to imagine that the things that are being reported and then left are actually true if you never saw the counterpoint because they look true in isolation anything looks true if there's no counterpoint so I don't know how
[29:49]
no counterpoint so I don't know how Democrats can possibly defend trust in the media other than they're not paying attention to both sides now what's also interesting about the Gallup poll is that they show the the graph lines over time and the graph lines the Democrats have apparently for years and years the Democrats have had more trust in the media makes sense because Fox News has existed for years and years and not everybody is watching it so but but if they are they're gonna have a different opinion than the people who are not and what happened in 2016 is that the lives that were the lives were sort of always this far apart it's like every year it's about this far apart Democrats have more more trust and then his 2016 and it goes opposite directions I mean just grossly opposite directions as soon as 2016 hit why of course president Trump's election and specifically the fact that the that the
[30:53]
specifically the fact that the that the news on the Left became complete fake news I mean it just turned into nothing but
but as soon as the president was was elected and I've invested exaggeration but it'd be got it got a lot worse once the president was elected all right so let's talk about some of that BS news have you heard that there's an impeachment going on have you heard about that the yeah there's an impeachment and there's some more news on it I know a lot of you didn't didn't even know it because the Iranian thing just wiped it off the news but CNN is desperately trying to keep this thing alive and I'm watching their opinion columnist online it was actually kind of funny I mean it's actually funny like literally I bluffing because I'm thinking about their situation I'm not just laughing at what they're writing I'm thinking about their situation
[31:53]
I'm thinking about their situation imagine if you're the official CNN opinion person like this this Collinson guy whose job it is to write an anti-trump opinion piece every day and yeah they're focusing on the impeachment because that's what's big in that category so imagine the poor guy having to write in another impeachment article when absolutely nobody cares this week because because we've forgotten about it it's old news we've got this Iran situation and poor guy has to write an article all right so here's who's the best he can come up with here's what from one of the opinion pieces on CNN the praise or condemnation president Donald Trump is drawing for the latest us actions in the Middle East and no way diminishes the power of the legal bombshell that just exploded the United States with new evidence of his behavior regarding Ukraine so some emails have been discovered of
[32:53]
so some emails have been discovered of the staff talking about stuff that makes it look like Trump knew or ordered that withholding for personal gain that's the CNN version of it not the real version that's a CNN version and but the this poor guy who has to write an article to keep people's attention he has to say he starts off with saying that you know the stuff in the Middle East with Arab in no way diminishes the power of the legal bombshell that just exploded to the United States to which I say yeah did yeah it totally diminished that bombshell your bombshell was like a dust bunny that's under the bed and stays there that's your bombshell bombshell is a dust bunny onto the bed that just stays ER because nobody cares am i right if it feels like literally nobody cares I'm not even sure if the Democrats care
[33:54]
I'm not even sure if the Democrats care anymore it just feels like they don't care but there's a new category that they've invented all right so in another opinion piece by another CNN opinion person they're talking about the emails and and the decision to withhold funding from Ukraine and this would rights as the clock tick toward a disbursement deadline aids increasingly raised the legality of the issue legality my god there's gonna be something in here about somebody breaking a law that's where it looks like it's heading right bombshell time are you ready here comes the bombshell and rightly so the decision didn't just run against the national security oh here comes it violated the law and like shoot wait what violated the law and then you dig into it a little bit and when the article says it
[34:55]
little bit and when the article says it violated the law they don't mean something that actually happened the it violated the law was the possibility that they would have withheld it passed the Congressional deadline so once the money is once money is just distributed or once it's proved I guess there's some deadline in the future months in the future in which if you haven't done it by then you violated the law now here's the key part it didn't happen in other words they did not go past the deadline going past the deadline is the only thing that would have turned the legal actions into illegal actions and they didn't do it so the CNN has created a new category a criticism wait for it here it is past potential crimes I'm not even making
[35:56]
potential crimes I'm not even making this up so the president is being criticized today on CNN for something that happened in the past that potentially could have been a crime if they had done something else instead it's a past potential crime it didn't happen but if it had happened it would have been in the past a past potential crime that's all they have they have a past potential hypothetical past potential crime my god can you get lower than a past potential crime because up until now they've been focusing on we think the president might do something in the future that's bad that's a future potential crime a future future potential crime could happen that's that's the big difference between a
[36:57]
that's the big difference between a future potential crime and a past potential crime a past potential crime can't actually happen cuz it's not the past and the deadline for that crime to even happened is gone because the situation's gone right the money was already just distributed so someday I want to have critics whose only complaint about me today is a past potential crime that didn't happen all right what else we got going on here I think that's about it I believe I believe we've covered it all so put down your bets on Iran I'm going I'm going to double down on my bet that Iran is rational so I see no major military
[37:58]
rational so I see no major military action by Iran based on the theory that they're rational and we'll see what happens now let me give you the ultimate optimistic thought are you ready here's the most optimistic thing you'll ever hear in your life probably optimistic to the point of being crazy
peace in the Middle East is impossible right we'd all agree there's nothing it's just impossible to have peace in the Middle East because you've got thousands and thousands of years of fighting you know the the people are on teams and you just can't imagine that changing here's something that's also true there's only one person who needs to change their mind to make peace just one person it's actually down to the Ayatollah I would have said last week if I'd known it I wasn't as smart last week
[39:00]
I'd known it I wasn't as smart last week but if I had been smarter last week I could have said well they're probably two people one of them is Solomon a if he if he wasn't on board because it looks like he had a lot more power than any of us thought as we're learning more about him in my opinion he was actually running Iran because the guy with the gun you know the one who has the military yeah that's the guy who's in charge even if not officially on paper my guess is this Alemany was really the last person preventing peace in the Middle East because Iran is the big problem and their support of the proxies is the other problem but if you if Iran suddenly today said you know what how about just peace in the Middle East it would only take one person think about that thousands of years of fighting in the Middle East and it's
[40:00]
fighting in the Middle East and it's come down to this is real thousands of years of fighting and it's down to one person the Ayatollah he just has to say you know maybe not that's it that's the end of it we have never been this close to complete peace in the Middle East as somebody says naive now I'm not naive in the sense that you know there wouldn't be smaller disputes and stuff forever but in terms of countries at war we're kind of down to just Iran if Iran decided to be good now that wouldn't obviously that's not going to cause everybody the Palestinians to be happy with the Israel etc but it would be down to local terrorist acts and you know murderers here and there rocky gets fired that sort of thing but you're down to just one country one guy one person and that one person just got the path
[41:02]
and that one person just got the path cleared right because Solomon he was probably the biggest obstacle to array on doing something peaceful because there's no way he was going to be okay with that maybe they you you may have a situation where Iran can do something so historically meaningful it would be just crazy just crazy I don't think Turkey's gonna cause a war there's some questions about Turkey I think heard Awad is be happy just running Turkey all right yes adopt about the one man theory yeah so he did get he did get whacked that's the truth but we're close all right that's it for now that's my optimistic thought for the day and I'll talk to you later