Episode 730 Scott Adams: Iran, Buttigieg, Shampeachment predictions
Date: 2019-11-18 | Duration: 28:52
Topics
My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a My Shampeachment prediction My Iran prediction on survival of the Iranian regime Young people who don’t know major historical names and details Jennifer Williams testimony…call was ”unusual and inappropriate” The thing missing from her opinion Pete Buttigieg is looking like he has a chance Bloomberg’s campaign kicks off with an apology Bill Maher’s monologue about finding a way to all live together
If you would like my channel to have a wider audience and higher production quality, please donate via my startup (Whenhub.com) at this link: https://interface.my/ScottAdamsSays
> [!note] Rough Transcript
>
> This is an auto-generated transcript and may contain errors.
## Transcript
[0:05]
buh-buh-buh-buh-buh I'll buy it up about bump-bump-bump oh look at my wrinkly shirt hey everybody come on in here Peter good to see you dude wild man Simon what a pleasure do you have what I have I hope you do because you know you came here for the simultaneous that's the best part of the day doesn't take much did you bring perhaps a cup or a mug a snifter stein jealous tanker thermos flask canteen Grail goblet vessel of any kind did you fill it with your favorite liquid like I did I like coffee and will you join me now for the simultaneous sip the thing that connects all people the dopamine to the day the thing that makes everything better here it comes the simultaneous scent oh yeah yeah yep that's the good stuff right there keep it on the coffee warmer it's gonna be
[1:06]
it on the coffee warmer it's gonna be just perfect alright so the news is gonna start slowing down quite a bit as we enter the holiday season so you might have to come up with new things to talk about but first have you sampled my new book loser think people are saying it's the best book I've ever written changing people's lives changing their brains reprogramming them making them better people sometimes that makes them sexier and better-looking but that's anecdotal I think you're gonna like it so make sure you get one of those as a gift for your loser thinking relatives it'd be a good way to make Thanksgiving a little bit more interesting if you know what I mean so I'm gonna make a prediction about the impeachment I suppose the fact that I call it as she impeachment my to give away my
[2:07]
impeachment my to give away my prediction but it goes like this
in a legal context and I'm gonna extend this to the impeachment process which is not a legal process but the the point will stand in a legal process if reasonable people look at the same information and some of those reasonable people say well there's a horrible crime right there and other reasonable people just as qualified let's say lawyers look at the same information completely the same information and say I don't see it I'm looking at why you're looking I don't see a crime you can pretty much guarantee nobody's going to jail over whatever that thing is if lawyers can't even agree even after they've agreed on the facts they still can't agree if there's a crime because it looks ambiguous nobody goes to jail for that we don't have a system that puts you in
[3:08]
we don't have a system that puts you in jail for things that well it might be a crime but some smart people can tell that you just never go to jail for that likewise with impeachment the fact that you don't see any any Republicans defecting sure they'll say it was inappropriate they'll say we shouldn't have done it bla bla bla bla but you don't see any Republican say you know I'm looking at the information and there's there's an impeachable offense right there you just don't see it that's all you need to know I don't believe there's gonna be surprises coming now if we get surprised with new information of course I could change things but based on what we know now which seems unlikely to to be in the process of changing I would say it's over I I would say that the smart money says there's just nothing there and that's the end of it and the Senate will
[4:09]
that's the end of it and the Senate will vote and it will be dismissed and there's nothing but a political process which I think mostly you know
so Jennifer Williams oh by the way the the generic way to express what I just said is I like to use the elephant in the living room example if a bunch of people are in the living room and half of them say hey there's an elephant right there in the living room right in front of you you could just reach over and touch it right there and the other half say I don't see it and they're in the same living room there's no elephant there you can pretty much rely on the fact that a hallucination adds things to the scenery rarely I won't say never but rarely do you hallucinate that something's missing the rarely could you stand in the living room and simply not see the elephant that's standing in front of you anything could happen but that would be very rare so the fact that there are a lot of people who clearly clearly see
[5:10]
lot of people who clearly clearly see impeachable offenses while other people looking at the same information saying yeah obviously I think it just tells you all you need to know that it will not be impeachable so let's say that that's already done here's another here's another prediction it spits on Iran now predicting that Iran will have a revolution or they'll change their government there's always a dicey proposition because anybody who's predicted that for the last 20 or 30 years has been wrong but here's a little predictive piece of information so there's some apparently pretty bad economic protests going on in ran banks have been burned businesses have been burned people are in the streets and it's mostly about the price of gasoline and oil I guess went way up the government raised those prices so but
[6:11]
government raised those prices so but here's the predictive part Iran turned off the exterior the external internet so you can still use the Internet to get the stuff within Iran but they can no longer get from or the Iranian internet and the rest of the world
how did you see where this is going there there are two conditions which guarantee that the Iranian regime will fall two conditions one is if they leave internet access for their people if you give the people in Iran internet access they will eventually organize they'll figure out what's going on and they will change their own government so the one way you can guarantee that in the long run it might not happen tomorrow but in the long run you can guarantee that Iran will change is if they have access to the Internet and a fully unfettered internet the second way that Iran is
[7:12]
internet the second way that Iran is guaranteed to change its leadership whether they like it or not is if they close down the internet there's only two conditions they leave it open in which case they don't have a chance or they close it in which case they don't have a chance because the Iranian population skews very young yeah so excuse very young what happens when people who were very young have a taste of the internet and then the government takes it away from them how does that go over it doesn't go over a well at all so I think there are two conditions the guarantee of the Iranian regime will change and those are the only two conditions either have the internet or you don't either way they're doomed there's just question of how long it takes so I think the ayatollahs age and health will be the big factor here
[8:14]
health will be the big factor here he'll probably hang on as long as he's healthy but that might not be that long it could be a few years I give him five years I give him five years before the Iranian regime turns into something different all right there's a shocking poll a shocking poll that's saying that a poll of 16 to 24 year-olds found that 28% had never heard of Stalin laughs had never heard of Lenin and 70% had never heard of no see top is that surprising no not even a little here's the question you should ask young people and when I say young I'll say anybody under 30 anybody under 30 ask this question how many people died in World War two for all countries in the world both civilian and military how many people died in World War two I've been
[9:15]
people died in World War two I've been asking this question for 20 years 30 years I've been asking this question what do you think young people say when he asked them how many people died in World War two sometimes they say thousands right sometimes they say thousands sometimes and this is rare they'll say maybe a million maybe a million people the correct answer is about 60 million 60 million if they say a million you should remind them now the Holocaust alone was six million now if somebody says six million they're mistaken because they're confusing the Holocaust with all of World War two it was a subset six million is just your starting point if you count China Russia
[10:16]
starting point if you count China Russia and all those deaths us etc Europe it's about 60 million now if you don't know that should you be allowed to vote this seems like that should be the the minimum requirement you know if somebody is somebody at Gaston I don't know 20 or 30 million and the real the real number is 60 million I wouldn't hold that against them because the difference between you know twenty and thirty billion dying and 60 million is of course double but it's the same point that in other or two would be the worst thing we could ever have whereas if you think only a few thousand people died do you mind another war obviously a few thousand people and a seven billion you wouldn't even notice it so the fact that young people don't know that communism and some form of socialism have killed
[11:19]
and some form of socialism have killed tens of millions of people certainly a problem somebody says you looked it up in at 73 million you know I know that number keeps getting raised I haven't heard this I've never heard 73 million but it could be right again it doesn't matter if it's 60 million or 73 million it's sort of the same point all right
and the interesting thing is happening now let's talk more about the impeachment so special adviser to Mike Pence Jennifer Williams apparently told the house impeachment dudes and dudettes quote Trump's the Trump request that Ukraine open a Biden probe was unusual and inappropriate right so somebody out Pence's team said at the time that the Trump requests to look into Biden in Ukraine was unusual and inappropriate
[12:19]
Ukraine was unusual and inappropriate now what is the job of an advisor advisers don't really advise you to do crazy things advisers usually just try to keep you out of trouble right so for an adviser to say hey that's unusual and inappropriate that's just sort of doing their job now what would be the personality of an entrepreneur an entrepreneur is always doing things that are unusual and sometimes inappropriate if you look at some of the major corporations in the world when they were startups their founders were doing things that were unusual and inappropriate pretty much all the time I'm not going to name names but if you look into your history of your big tech companies you're gonna find some interesting unusual and
[13:22]
find some interesting unusual and inappropriate behavior so the entrepreneurial mind doesn't have the same same number of limitations the political advisors mind is all about the limitations it's all about what you can't do so are we worried that Jennifer Williams had the feeling that this was unusual and inappropriate I don't mind saying it was unusual do you inappropriate just an opinion as somebody is saying in the comments inappropriate is an opinion now shouldn't you need to backup inappropriate with why isn't the why missing here's the difference between an entrepreneur and a political animal are you ready hey Scott you can't do that that's inappropriate and unusual as an entrepreneur I say I know that but
[14:23]
entrepreneur I say I know that but what's the downside well it's unusual I know it's unusual that's why I'm doing it because if everybody else was doing the same thing I wouldn't make any sense so I know it's unusual why is it inappropriate well it's just not done no you already said that you said it was unusual tell me what the problem is you know it's inappropriate in what way in what way that affects something or costs me money or hurts me my reputation or something well it's just not done okay you're just replacing words with other words you're still not hearing a reason so so here I'm role playing an entrepreneur if you tell an entrepreneur that the entrepreneurs plan which looks like a good plan except that it's unusual
[15:24]
unusual other people think it's inappropriate but they can't tell you why maybe you go ahead and do it anyway in the political context you don't like to do things that are inappropriate but in the real world those are the people who are getting stuff done the people were the people we're seeing there let's say they're the people who see their prison walls as illusions those people will do unusual things things that look inappropriate to people in other bubbles that isn't appropriate I can't think of a reason why but I'm sure it's inappropriate all right so I wouldn't worry too much about the Sham Pietschmann having any real effect here's something to worry about if you're a trump supporter Pete Buddha judge now Pete because he got a good hot good high poll numbers in Iowa suddenly
[16:25]
good high poll numbers in Iowa suddenly looks more practical doesn't he suddenly looks more practical but a judge only needed one thing the only thing he needed was for the public to think he had a chance because they want to win more than anything so the fact that he pulled well in Iowa tells tells Democrats that he could he could actually win it's the first time they've really felt that I would say it's the first time I felt it you know I always thought he had the capability but he didn't have any kind of a momentum he just he hadn't set the table right through no fault of his own the polls just weren't there for him but now they are so you only need that one poll to make it look like you're credible now some have said he might he might do well in Iowa New Hampshire but when he gets to South Carolina with a large black vote he's gonna run into a wall maybe
[17:27]
vote he's gonna run into a wall maybe maybe we'll see I don't know that the average person you know and certainly not the average black in the United States I don't think they know much about it and the complaints about him are a kind of smallish I think he fired a black police chief when he took over as mayor but that was just one personnel decision I don't think that really was race so he's got minor complaints but he's a Democrat he's always on the right side with all the race stuff so well I got a feeling he's gonna make a he's gonna make quite a play for the nomination that's what I think compared to Bloomberg Bloomberg is starting out his may be running maybe not campaign maybe not a campaign by apologizing for his past decisions on stop and frisk there there's a good way
[18:28]
stop and frisk there there's a good way to run for president well I'd like to start running for president by apologizing for all the stuff I did before it's like what he's most famous for in some ways so I don't see the 77 year-old who's starting his campaign by apologizing as being a credible candidate Bill Maher had an interesting monologue at the end of his show before they before they go into hiatus I guess they take some time off over the holidays yeah they made a play for people to figure out how to live with each other because we sort of have to hear a means the left of the right the Democrats and the Republicans and he said that he would try to try to tone down his insults of the other team I don't know that I believe that because it's just so much fun to insult the
[19:29]
it's just so much fun to insult the other team and that's most of his show so I don't know if he'll be able to stick with that but I like the fact that Maher seems to be softening a little bit softening in terms of you know we must eradicate the other side and he's specifically come down on the side of okay we're not going to eradicate them we have to figure out how to live together I call that progress I've been saying for a while that I think and you know this would be a risky prediction but it looks like Marv is on this long slow journey to being closer to a trump supporter than a detractor he's not there but you you see these little these little movements away from the craziness of the left because surely he's watching the impeachment and saying to himself okay you know maybe I would played it
[20:31]
okay you know maybe I would played it that way if I were president maybe I didn't want the president to play it that way but it doesn't look like an impeachable offense and I got a feeling that bar is looking at this and I don't want to read his mind I'm just saying that any reasonable observer watching this could start having some doubts about about well either side if they wanted to all right so those are the things that are happening right now Oh Prince a the Prince Andrew story gets funnier so Prince Andrew of course was associated with epstein and apparently the reason that Prince Andrew stayed at Epstein's house even after epstein was convicted of pedophile behavior is that he said he was just too honorable he was Prince Andrew was just too honorable person what that didn't make any sense
[21:32]
person what that didn't make any sense but okay so he did such a bad job Prince Andrew did that is his PR person who quit you have to do a really bad job to make your your PR person would quit the peeve of the PR person was like I'm out wow I can't even associate with this guy anymore and then today there's a further report that Prince Andrew used the N word in private some years ago the let me say this about that probably not probably not well I don't believe that Prince Andrew used the N word in private years ago that's exactly the kind of story you just you should just discount no I wasn't there if anything's possible but it's the sort of story you should just flush as soon as you hear it just like okay if you don't have a recording you know you get a need for a claim like that I need a little evidence I don't
[22:35]
that I need a little evidence I don't want to live in a world where people could just say blah blah blah use the n-word I'm the only one who heard it yeah I'm not buying you whether he 7 it we're not I don't want to live in the world where people can make that claim without printing good evidence so I just discount it alright and we hope he did not
not we hope he did not use that word but I kind of think he didn't it would be my guess but if I had to bet more likely he did that he did thank you somebody telling me my book is great yeah there's this weird connection between Andrew and pizza yeah that's that's a funny coincidence that the simulation is served up but yes so like Serta
[23:36]
served up but yes so like Serta has been talking about how he wrote articles essentially identifying the whistleblower as a leaker back in 2017 I looked at the I reread what he wrote that and he was totally on it I can tell you the back end at the very beginning of the administration I was hearing from my sources that McMasters was sort of the problem and then time seems to have bored that I know so I won't use the name of the whistleblower just because you all know it anyway I don't need to cause trouble for myself you although the date and it doesn't look like the whistleblower is credible even a little bit somebody says Tulsi reached 90% of the you guys pole and that would be interesting and who would that come out of I'll have to go take a look at that pole so I would expect Tulsi and Buddha
[24:40]
pole so I would expect Tulsi and Buddha jej to both be making the move maybe even Club a char because Biden was gonna disappear and his support has to go somewhere all right I don't have much else to say today so we won't say it either all right I still haven't made a time to talk to Tulsi Gabbard on periscope but her campaign did follow up a few times so I know it's on their list of things I wanted to sort of a scheduling thing all right what about the stone garden well as I tweeted I think the Roger stone pardon would be the easiest part of all time because the president would be able to completely control the narrative at that point because you're going to talk about that you can't you can't not talk about that and I think
[25:43]
can't not talk about that and I think his case for stone is really good because because stone was lying in a process that was a witch hunt so if you get caught lying to stop a witch hunt well no lying to stop a witch hunt it's not the worst crime that I would certainly see a a part being in order why not Flynn I would think Flint would get pardoned at the same time if the President does the pardons you should do it at the same time because because it makes it a bigger story and it's a better story if they if you do it at the same time
I probably will come after the IG report I'm starting to think the stupid IG report is just never gonna come is there any reason we're waiting this long I don't know maybe the IG report will be interesting maybe not I'm not going to
[26:46]
interesting maybe not I'm not going to assume that it will be it'll break the world and a half let's talk about George Conway so Kelly encountered a husband George it was a big anti chopper there there is something to be said about choosing your critics and I gotta say the president is really lucky and that his critics are such well say they're not TV friendly if your worst critics are George Conway Adam Schiff and dad ler that's a good place to be I would want those three people to be my critics because they're they're so non sympathetic I mean it's hard to say yeah I'm with those guys because they look like people you wouldn't want to hang out with that
[27:53]
wouldn't want to hang out with that I would do just reading your comments here how can George Conway still be married well here's the thing you never know what the real dynamics of a marriage are so I don't I don't judge any of that who knows there's something there's something about that marriage that we don't understand and that's all you need to know you don't need to understand it I saw a little bit of bars speech just a clip did seem too important
okay just reading your comments all right that's all I got now and I will talk to you later