Episode 669 Scott Adams: Have Coffee With Me While I Solve Healthcare, Immigration, Climate Change
Date: 2019-09-20 | Duration: 40:39
Topics
My new book LOSERTHINK goes on sale 11/5. Pre-order: https://bit.ly/2NRammu Why Iran attacked Aramco, my current understanding Climate change SOLVED! HuffPo just went pro-nuclear, so did CNN, AOC open to it Anti-science Democrats…just look silly now Corey Booker & Andrew Yang are pro-nuclear Immigration & Healthcare SOLVED! Linking immigration and healthcare is the answer Credit to Joel Pollack Controlling immigration versus restricting immigration
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## Transcript
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bum-bum-bum-bum-bum [Music]
hey everybody come on in here you know what time it is I think you do because you all have smartphones and clocks and watches and stuff yeah it's time to have coffee with Scott Adams and not just enjoy coffee but enjoy the simultaneous if it's the best thing ever and all you need to enjoy it is a cover of our glasses tight in the chalice of tankard a thermos flask I can't even a Grail a goblet a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the dopamine head of the day the unparalleled pleasure the simultaneous sip here comes here comes
well the funniest tweet of the day courtesy of President Trump it turns out
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courtesy of President Trump it turns out that Bill de Blasio has announced that he is leaving the race for president this did not go unnoticed by the President of the United States who tweets and I quote oh no well first of all will there ever be another president whoever starts a tweet with oh no probably not it's probably the only one you'll ever see so he says oh no really big political news perhaps the biggest story of years part-time mayor of New York City he's calling de Blasio a part-time mayor part-time mayor of New York City bill de blasio who was polling at a solid zero but had tremendous room for growth
as shockingly misspelled dropped down to the presidential race new york city is devastated he's coming home come on
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devastated he's coming home come on how how are we ever going to pay attention to politics after this president I honestly I didn't really follow politics too much before the age of Trump and I'm fairly certain I'm not gonna follow politics afterwards so his election actually would have a fairly large impact on my my life arc because because that'll be four years that I would have been talking about politics that I probably won't if he's now president yeah baby we'll see so there's a report that the so called sonic weapon that was used on the Cuban embassy the US Embassy in Cuba might not have been a sonic weapon after all but by coincidence that China just announced it actually has a sonic weapon that they're using against crowds probably in the Hong Kong crowds so they have a handheld sonic weapon but there's a study that says that the embassy
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a study that says that the embassy problem was probably not a sonic weapon who predicted that me by the way in the entire world when that story came out that there was a sonic weapon there was injuring people in the embassy did you hear anybody else like in the whole world who said oh no that's fake I think it was only me and now there's a report that it was likely pesticides because apparently they can study the brains of the people were affected and it seems to have affected a part of the brain that's sensitive to neurotoxins and there was some reason to believe that there was a different kind of fumigating and pesticides because of something that was going on at that time so I would say that's not confirmed not confirmed yet but kind of weird we haven't found any sonic weapons right we would have found that by now all right there was a question I asked which I
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there was a question I asked which I believe I haven't answered to you I was asking what Iran was trying to accomplish exactly by attacking the Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabian oil facility and I couldn't figure it out because I thought well did they want to start a war do they really think nobody's gonna know who did it it didn't as a strategy I couldn't quite place it but that was because I had some gaps in my understanding and here's the main gap I didn't realize that Saudi Arabia really really doesn't want a war with Iran partly because Iran would probably kick their butts so that's the part I didn't know I I assumed the Saudi Arabia was bristling with modern weaponry and US support and if Iran were to try to mess with them it would be just a terrible mistake for Iran turns out it's more like the opposite of that and I'm open to fact Jackie here by
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that and I'm open to fact Jackie here by the way so I'm just I'm saying my current understanding subject to change my current understanding is that the last thing in the world Saudi Arabia wants is war because Iran is pretty capable pretty pretty capable and there's not much let's say practice that the the Saudis have had so they don't even know if their defences work and after you watch your entire oil facility just being devastated in you know 10 minutes you're probably thinking to yourself maybe we should try to keep the rest of our oil facilities so it seems to me that date 1 or 2 of any war with Iran Saudi Arabia would no longer be an oil exporting country literally on day 2 you know day one or two Saudi Arabia would no longer be in business they just wouldn't be an oil exporting country anymore and you can see how easily Iran
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anymore and you can see how easily Iran just took out a major facility now here's my my current better up to understanding I I've said this a million times but if you think Iran is not rational you're just not paying attention they want different things than we want but they're terribly rational very including this so it turns out that they seem to have known that the United States was not going to go to war for Saudi Arabia because Saudi Arabia it just isn't popular enough that the United States is going to say yeah let's go let's go kill some Americans to defend them because you know 9/11 is still sort of fresh in a lot of people's minds and always will be I suppose as long as we're alive the the generation that watched it live on TV and I don't know and I think Iran is probably right that it would be next to impossible for
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that it would be next to impossible for the US public to back a war to defend Saudi Arabia even though they're an ally so I think Iran realized that they had a free punch and that there would be no repercussions or at least nothing important and I think Iran said wait a minute we just figured out that if we want to get back at the United States we can just keep punching Saudi Arabia forever because it doesn't seem like there's any amount that they could punch the Saudi Arabia that's gonna make us respond militarily because we really really don't want to and Saudi Arabia really really doesn't want to get in a war - so I have to give it up for Iran it was a pretty good strategy I mean it wasn't obvious to me but I would say we're not going to we're not going to respond militarily they successfully took the stakes way up I think they're calling
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stakes way up I think they're calling Saudi Arabia's bluff and ours - at least militarily and I think they're right I think they can blow up as much stuff in Saudi Arabia as they want and we're probably not going to do anything about it
so and then I heard the account today apparently if the attack was I have the numbers approximate I was like you know nineteen drones and seven cruise missiles or something so there was something like 25 different flying assets that either came out of Iran or Iran's proxy in Yemen to destroy that thing and basically just took it out and so the headlines today are all about the age of drone warfare is here and nobody can protect themselves and I think that's pretty clear that our normal defenses for you know our radar and our normal military defenses not going to
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normal military defenses not going to make much difference against this kind of attack so suddenly everybody can attack everybody again so it looks like things are changing now it makes you wonder if somebody will attack Iran with a bunch of drones and missiles and then claim it wasn't us yeah it's kind of ballsy for Iran to say no wasn't us what do you mean I I don't think it was us could we do the same thing could we just you know take out a major Iranian oil facility with you know with with a hundred flying objects and then when when the ran says hey United States you you bombed our oil facility and could we just look go on TV and say wasn't us huh no I don't really talk about we're just as citizens issue where would you when when that oil refinery blew up we don't
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when that oil refinery blew up we don't know what you're talking about so that would be a funny thing to do but not that I would recommend it so I promised you that I was going to solve and in the title of this periscope I said I was going to solve health care immigration and climate change I'm going to deliver on all of that are you ready climate change solved already done already done now not from my own doing of course but rather a number of influential people I like to point out mark Schneider and Michael Shellenberger in particular I've done such a good job of let's say influencing people to understand that nuclear has to be part of the part of the way we go forward whether you think climate change is a problem or not so whether or not climate change is a problem nuclear is still the way to go but here's the
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still the way to go but here's the here's what's new The Huffington Post just did a major piece essentially praising Cory Booker for being the only person who's compatible with science in taganga stew and Biden is actually compatible with science because he's saying that we need nuclear power to deal with climate change and Cory Booker says directly you can't blame the other side meaning the Republicans you can't blame them for being anti science on climate change if you're going to be anti science about nuclear power because science says we need it it's a big deal Huffington Post just turned on all the anti-nuclear people and just went full throated pro-nuclear let me say that again the Huffington Post just went full pro-nuclear CNN I said the was it
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pro-nuclear CNN I said the was it yesterday just the other day this wake CNN went pro nuclear on unabashedly it's their print both of them are printing artal articles that are absolutely unambiguously pro-nuclear with no no real push back articles in other words they're not showing both sides they're just showing the pro-nuclear who else is showing pro-nuclear The Daily wire so we're seeing it on the right and you're seeing it on the left so the Daily wire was mocking them area Williams is it Williams or Williams so I forget before saying that we should forget about the data on nuclear energy and just use our hearts and they were mocking her so in any given week when you have the media that's on the right and the media that's on the left and I'm talking way right and way left you know the full right and the full left both unambiguously clearly backing nuclear
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unambiguously clearly backing nuclear power what's that mean it means ladies and gentlemen that climate change is solved now when I say is solved we still have to do all the work of the political work and the persuasion and the economics and the technology I mean it's a ton of work but we now have a clear path because both the left and the right just agreed now there are people who were still not on board but they just looked silly at this point you can't take seriously Elizabeth Warren when she's full anti-nuclear at the same time CNN and Huffington Post and everybody on the right is all pro-nuclear Warren can't win so the the path to the path to no nuclear is pretty much closed because both sides just close the door now where's AOC and all this because I think I think you can't talk about climate change and you can't talk about where
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change and you can't talk about where we're going unless you throw her and she's so influential and her what is her take on nuclear do you know do you know a o'seas take on nuclear power open to it yeah open to it so I believe that's where latest statement is that she's open to the argument now how do you interpret open to it it's not like she hasn't already looked into it do you think a or C hasn't paid attention yeah I know some of you have a low opinion of everybody who's on the other side but seriously AOC she's most associated with the green New Deal she's looked into it she knows nuclear has be part of the solution there's no there's no doubt that she understands that and she's sort of doing that the cat's on the roof with well I'm open to it have you ever heard that joke cats on the roof it goes like this guy was going on vacation the esses
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guy was going on vacation the esses brother to look after his cat so a guy goes on vacation and he's you know wants to check in so a few days after vacation starts he calls his brother to go say he hasn't our things how's my cat and his brother says your cat's dead he's like oh my god oh my god you're ruining my vacation that's so terrible how can you just say like that you're so cruel and the brother says well what am I supposed to do I mean I'm just telling you the truth and the guy says you could have broken it to me more softly he goes what do you mean yeah as well for example the first time I called and asked about my cat he buddy said oh the cats on the roof and you know where we're trying to get her down and then maybe the next day I calls us well she's still in the roof we're still trying to get her down and maybe the third day you say well we tried to get her down but she fell and she looks injured and then maybe the fourth day you say well looks like she's not going to make it so by the time I find out my cat died I've had lots of time to sort of you know adjust to the
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time to sort of you know adjust to the idea so try to try to break it to me slowly next time and and the brother says rere I get it so then the brother on vacation says all right that's just terrible he goes anything else happened and the brother says mom's on the roof alright so I will pause because I'm sure you're laughing at home so aoc is telling us that the nuclear power is on the roof in other words she's trying to break it to her side slowly that that's the answer she can't write she can't go out and say green new do green new deal let's do solar let's do windmills let's do solar let's do windmills whoops let's do nuclear you can't really do that you need a little bit of transition so she's in the open-minded phase of the transition to full nuclear
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phase of the transition to full nuclear cuz she you know she's going there right now I of course have more more confidence in her abilities than most of you yeah and I have from the start and I think she's smart and I think she's gonna do her homework and I think she's already Pro no nuclear and then we just have to get there alright so climate change is salt meaning that we know how to solve it and all the people who need to agree or on board there are a few candidates who are not on board but I don't think they're gonna win so it doesn't matter all those smart people are on board Cory Booker or Andrew yang even Biden's advisors are saying yes nuclear so let's talk about immigration and health care would you like me to solve both of them now oh I can do that but first let me give you some context let's go to the whiteboard whiteboard coming at you ah all right here's what I want to tell you this is a
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here's what I want to tell you this is a framework for understanding where I'm going next imagine if you will that before and I'm just roughly picking years to make a point let's say before today throughout entire human history mostly we were dealing with shortages meaning that we were trying to find enough food to eat we were trying to get enough materials and money and capital and we were trying to get stuff we didn't have enough stuff all right so imagine let's call that the era of scarcity but I believe that now our modern systems from amazon.com to capitalism - you know FedEx - all the systems we built have created a situation where we can get all the stuff we need if you have a good enough reason to get it you can find anything you need you can find a way to get it to you all you really need is money and and we know how to make money we know what how to make business models we know how to get jobs we know how to make
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jobs we know how to make so I would argue that we are about to enter or have entered what I'll call the era of design the era of design is notable because it imagines that you can get all the stuff you need you just have to organize it right now in terms of design I'm talking about systems not just products so I'm not talking about designing a new phone that's just product design it's not very interesting I'm talking about designing systems such as the Constitution in the United States that's a system it's a good one the system of capitalism it's good our legal system it's a system all right and here's my insight like every skill design is something that some people some few people are really really good at other people are ok at it and other people are bad at it it's just like every other skill the top 1% of 1% of
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every other skill the top 1% of 1% of people who are good at this designing can change the world so people like that would be for example the founders of this country who designed a constitution and the system that has been just brilliantly effective for a few hundred years now maybe it won't be always as effective as environment changes but they're great you know Jefferson and and that crowd Madison etc were great designers so think of them not as founders think of them as designers designers of systems now who did we see part of the reason I picked 2019 is because of Kanye so Kanye West you know the story on his own his own initiative he hired some architectural folks and they designed some example or tests as a test homes that he was trying to develop for low-income housing when he was done the
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low-income housing when he was done the I guess the neighbors and the city said hey you don't have permits and it's kind of loud so he tore them down and I've said that you're seeing the beginning of his design Faye's probably not the end of it that whatever he learned what he built the first first ones now he knows he'll probably do some more in a different place in a different way and then it'll keep experimenting and designing his way forward when you've got people like Kanye designing housing suddenly you've got something like Thomas Jefferson designing the Constitution all right you're you're you're elevating the this skill level that's going into design now I'm not going to say that Kanye will necessarily design the low income house of the future and that will change the world but there are people like him who are that level of creative designers and you need that level you need the top 1% of 1% who are getting ready to change the world everything's gonna be
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the world everything's gonna be redesigned let me give you an example of redesign and by the way once we get our systems designed then we'll enter sort of a golden age where where things are going pretty well for us so let me give you an example of how powerful design is and I'm gonna use an example of a hypothetical deal in which the left and the right make an agreement in which the left gets some stuff they want on health care while the right get some stuff they want on immigration this idea the seed of this idea comes from a Joel Pollak at Breitbart so credit to Joel for this insight this insight is that there's something about health care and immigration that makes them a natural pair for a deal and that is that they influence each other so if you had free health care it would be a problem to also have unlimited
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be a problem to also have unlimited immigration because the immigrants would come in eventually they would come in at numbers so great that you and I can't afford our healthcare anymore because we're trying to share all right there just wouldn't be enough money for you to have health care you if you're let's say a American citizen if you have unlimited immigration so the two topics are tied necessarily you couldn't you couldn't untie them if you wanted so how could you design how could you design a system that takes advantage of the fact that they're connected and gives people what they want and I'm just gonna throw out the bones of an idea I'm not gonna sell this ideas like the best way to go because I don't know but it'll give you a sense of what I'm talking about in terms of how powerful design is all right so imagine if you said the healthcare going forward would be a combination of private insurance so you can always pay your same private insurance you have keep it through the employer and you could have
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through the employer and you could have that and it would be unchanged but it would also be Medicare for the rest of us we're some kind of it needs tests so you can't get it if you're rich but if you have a certain income you can just get it now I understand there's something like 15 to 18 percent of the country doesn't have health care insurance so you'd be adding to the cost of you know I guess you'd be added to the cost of society 15 or 20 percent on top of health care so that would be too expensive people would complain but let's say that you simultaneously said we're gonna have private insurance we're gonna have Medicare from the rest of you that's gonna cost more and the way that we're going to pay for that as at least as an attempt we'll see how close we get to this is to try to reduce costs through competition the competition specifically would be that the private insurance and the government insurance would be bidding for services and trying to be down the the providers
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and trying to be down the the providers and lower the cost so you'd have as a goal lowering overall cost of 20% that would make this sort of revenue neutral country wise it doesn't mean every person is revenue neutral but country wise it would break even and then you would trade this and again this is just throwing out the bones of an idea I'm not saying this is the best idea you trade it for effective border security and you would be personalize it by saying whatever the engineers say we should do and we're that's what we'll do so stop talking about walls stop talking about fences stop talking about electronic sensors stop talking about humans just say here's the deal we just want the experts to tell us what to do we're not for the purpose of here's the beauty not for the purpose of restricting but for the purpose of controlling like a lever creating a system for immigration that when we need more of it we can easily pull the lever
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more of it we can easily pull the lever and when we need less of it we put the lever in other words just creating a system for immigration that we don't have right now right now we don't have a system because it's up to the people crushing the border whether they come in or not it's not up to us there are too many of them we can't control them so imagine if you could that we we agreed that the number of immigrants who would come in on any given year would be based on the unemployment rate so you'd completely D personalize it and you say to yourself look at this unemployment rate will let this many immigrants in and by the way Congress you could make that go up or down you know it doesn't have to stay there you we could decide oh let's let's boost that up because it's good for us and then I'm throwing this in because I think this is coming one way or the other eventually some day there will be an app for immigrants who are nurses and who want to work they connect with employers through the app so that the government can watch everybody do it legally effectively that
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everybody do it legally effectively that would mean that having an app would be like a workers visa without the paperwork so so let me say that again instead of going through a legal workers visa program if you've got the app and you've signed up for it and it's really you that's it you've got a workers visa but you also have to have an employer say I'll give you a job so the app would be pairing employers and employees it would be handling the payments so that the government could tax it how about that the government could keep track of the workers and everybody would be legal
somebody says you never account for Lyon corrupt politicians and officials totally unrealistic yeah I'm not saying that any particular plan is realistic I'm trying to give you an idea of how if we could design better systems everything would be better you know we don't have a shortage of goods and products we have a design problem so I believe that there will be an app at some point that does the job of keeping
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some point that does the job of keeping everybody accounted for paying their taxes paired with jobs maybe even keeping them out of trouble and making it easier for the immigrants to get work and maybe even make it easier for them to get on some path to citizenship should the country decide that they want to do that all right so here's what it would look like as a designed plan now you could call this a deal if you're talking in president Trump language you'd call it making a deal but it's a special deal because it would have to be designed so that these two parts of the deal work together so that if unemployment starts to go up you don't have to build a wall then what would be the worst system here's the worst system would be unemployment starts to go up in this country and then we can't stop people from coming in that would be the worst system right the best system would be if we cantilever and our unemployment goes up and then we just pull back a little bit on immigration not completely
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little bit on immigration not completely just just pull back enough to to get our employee back where we want it and again those things could be negotiated by Congress it doesn't have to be what the president is forcing on the country
somebody says are you saying automation will have no effect no I'm not saying anything like that somebody says how about a better system instead to train and educate people born and raised here first well those don't have to be instead those can be in addition to x' so why wouldn't we do both
so the other thing I wanted to point out is that I think Carmel Harris has some kind of a plan where at least for ten years you get to keep your private insurance but I'm waiting to see the good argument against having dual healthcare systems because I don't know any good argument against that do you
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any good argument against that do you does anybody have a good argument for a a good argument for why we wouldn't just have dual health care system cover everybody but with a with a you know an income test well do all health care with everybody cover that's the part that's different all right somebody says Germany has dual health care system and it works well yeah I think there are a few countries in Great Britain does the other one right where they can do that now the real question is whether any of this allows you to lower costs and it seems to me that the administration could make a deal with the Democrats to say if you will help us do these market-based things to lower costs that will you know drive down costs help us with the votes we needed to drive down costs we'll help you get a system that runs parallel with private insurance so that everybody can get
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insurance so that everybody can get health insurance i I feel like that would be a decent deal but it has to be tied to immigration you absolutely can't have you can't have a free health care system and open immigration I think everybody understands that they just need to hear it it's one of those things that just needs to be said and then you hear it's the first time you go oh yeah that's true how many people do you think in the in the voting public know to make the connection between immigration rates and what they can do in a practical sense with health care for all do you think most of the public just sort of immediately connects those two and says oh I want health care for all oh wait I can't have that if it's also open borders I don't know that everybody makes that connection and once you make that connection this design just falls out from that doesn't it just sort of blood it's the obvious thing where you where you end up
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obvious thing where you where you end up now I keep saying that I think health care is going to end up with some kind of a dual system and but I'm really kind of testing that idea because I keep expecting that someone in the comments or somewhere else will say Scott Scott Scott read this article or look at these statistics and you can see why you can't ever have a dual health care system it won't work and here's the reason I haven't seen a reason I mean I I'm not saying I've seen bad reasons or any reasons have you all right explain the difference between outcomes why would I keep private oh so you would the only people who could get the public option under the dual system I'm talking about would be people who were below a certain income or over a certain age or I think below a certain age so so children and seniors
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certain age so so children and seniors and then adults under a certain income would be the only ones who could get the government to pay for it everybody else has to pay for their own because they have money or they have a job and their employers paying for it then the second thing is the quality of the care a lot of people have a preference you might not be able to get the same doctor of the same quality of care the same timeliness the same confidence as if you are in a private private option if somebody says in Germany anyone can get the public system but above a certain income yeah so it's the so the other way to do it which is effectively the same thing is that your income determines what if anything you would pay for the the public or private options all right will it be mandatory to have one of the other I don't see why it would be what
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other I don't see why it would be what why would you force somebody to have mandatory free insurance i you can't force somebody to go to the doctor so you know for the for the free option the one that's below a certain income people can just ignore it but I suppose all you'd have to do is show up to the right kind of doctor or emergency room and you'd be covered I think that's all that's what it is now somebody say what if you have money but you don't want to buy private insurance well I guess I know we'll deal with that somehow okay how many people think I just solved climate change not by myself obviously health care and immigration again not by myself I'm using Joel Pollux seed of an idea and expanding on it so don't blame him for anything I expanded on just the just the the insight that those two
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just the the insight that those two things could be a deal because they they both so here's the other reason the health care and immigration make a natural deal because they're equivalent emotionally right there they're sort of both large national interests that have our emotions and our attention and if I said to you what's bigger immigration or health care well you'd have to think about it for a moment you know you probably say health care some people would say immigration so the fact that you would you'd have to think about it tells you they're both big and that makes it a fair trade it's like okay I'll give you your big thing you give me your big thing and we'll both make the thing we're giving up at least a little bit moderate so this is the quietest I've ever seen my audience I don't know what's going on here is there anybody who thinks this is a bad idea
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anybody who thinks this is a bad idea did did I just describe solutions for the three biggest problems in the world now that's not true the the three biggest let's say political topics in the country did I just describe three solutions for the three biggest political issues and everybody here is going though okay is that what happened I don't know so some of you were saying no we're not solved but I'm not saying any reasons is there something obvious I'm missing
okay so that's about all I have today I would love to see a debate on the question of whether or not a dual system works now my take on Elizabeth Warren is she is a hundred percent unelectable and the reasons are that her to stand on nuclear energy it's just the end of the story if you've got Huffington Post and
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story if you've got Huffington Post and CNN the hole the hole right and and all the important left and every scientist saying we need nuclear power Warren just doesn't have anything she's just empty there she's she has an empty empty weapon there and then secondly wanting to take your health care away for every person who loves that idea they're gonna be I think two people who don't want to lose their existing health care so I feel that she's got a place she has a plan that can get her maybe the nomination but it's not even slightly competitive am I am I wrong does it seem to you that Warren would not be even slightly competitive because of nuclear you so the whole climate change she can't get right and health care if you get though and you know immigration will be people would just take sides so she's fine on immigration from the standpoint that her own team likes where she is I'm sure but I it
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likes where she is I'm sure but I it looks like the Democrats are driving as fast as they can toward guaranteed losing it's the weirdest thing now I will continue to say because it's not fair to change my predictions and midstream that Harris is still their only chance of winning because Harris as something like a dual health care system idea and I'm sure that she could also pivot to well I'll take a look at nuclear because she's we don't really even know what Harris is up I don't even know what she thinks about nuclear do you even if she said she doesn't like it you could easily imagine you're saying well I looked into it and maybe we need a little nuclear so I think she has a chance because she could at least you know pivot a little to the center and create some policies she's got the age right she's got the you know she's she's got person of color right she's got gender right she's got the experience
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gender right she's got the experience she's not just mayor mayor's don't seem exciting she sort of still has the whole package the only thing she has and says she's terrible at campaigning apparently and that might be fixable you know no you don't know she got this far so she knows how to learn that's all yeah for now I will talk to you later