Episode 666 Scott Adams: Coffee…NOW!

Date: 2019-09-18 | Duration: 55:21

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK goes on sale 11/5. Pre-order: https://bit.ly/2NRammu Was Corey Lewandowski’s testimony, Trump inspired technique? Making a mockery of the process was hilarious A suggested plan for gun control policy Saudi Arabia isn’t positive Aramco attack was from Iran? If NOT Iran…then who? Response options and outcomes President Trump understands human nature like nobody else

If you would like my channel to have a wider audience and higher production quality, please donate via my startup (Whenhub.com) at this link: https://interface.my/ScottAdamsSays

> [!note] Rough Transcript
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## Transcript

[0:13]

hey everybody where are you come on in it's time for coffee with Scott Adams I'm Scott Adams I have my coffee and if you're anywhere near prepared you can enjoy the simultaneous up all you need ask uh promoter guys to sign this yellow stack you can read my thermos of last hint in the Grail a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the simultaneous sip the unparalleled pleasure the part of the day that's the best it makes everything better go
first of all let me start off with my apologies I literally just woke up literally sort of literally semi figuratively literally just woke up meaning ten minutes ago so I do not have coffee in my veins except the SIP you just saw my preparation is poor and I'm live to thousands of people this is one

[1:14]

live to thousands of people this is one of those lessons on the value of humility I've told you before that through practice and trial and error I've learned to damp down my shame reflux so my ability to embarrass myself in front of lots of people is is very high you'll be seeing a little bit today all right normally I'm at least at least a little bit prepared but I've got a few things to talk about they're fun first of all congratulations to Mike Suraj like sort of itch being the I believe the most active aggressive voice on the topic of a Democrat donor named ed Bach who had some kind of a history of people dying in his his home of drug overdoses that were part of some recreational know he was having gay sex with homeless people than shooting him up with drugs allegedly or something like that that's roughly the details and and he

[2:16]

that's roughly the details and and he just got arrested for that stuff it looks like he's he's gonna be he's gonna be in trouble so Mike's individual was on this from the beginning and was saying he's gonna do it again he's gonna do it again he's gonna do it again I don't know how many times I saw a tweet from Mike certain of it telling the world ed buck gonna do it again could've do it again do something and he does it again so Mike you're right again and I say again because Mike has quite the track record of being way ahead of people on a lot of stuff including the presidency
did you see the the clip of Joe Biden misspeaking and saying that his plan would help 720 million American women there are 300 some million people in the country but Joe Biden's plan is gonna

[3:17]

country but Joe Biden's plan is gonna help sound another 20 million women he's lost it so combined that the Biden what would you call it disintegration that strangely enough hasn't been affecting his poll numbers and you have to ask yourself why why our poll numbers not going down cuz everybody should be watching what we're watching right but here's the thing they're not they're not because most people don't watch the news I think correct me if I'm wrong but what percentage of the voting public do you think actually watches the news and I say watches because I say watches because videos because if you didn't watch it just reading about it would you would say oh he just misspoke he meant 72 million or something maybe it was 72

[4:19]

72 million or something maybe it was 72 million he meant now if you read it and you said to yourself hey just misspoke it wouldn't be much or if you didn't see it it wouldn't mean much and if somebody if you've been following the news not at all and you went up to somebody said hey you haven't followed the news at all who do you like for president they might say Biden because they've heard of him still so you and I we follow the news right and we figure that everybody must be following the news at least a little bit right it's hard to imagine if you're one who has following the news it's hard to imagine wait are you telling me there's a citizen who if I went out to them a voting citizen in the United States and said what do you think of PEEP go to judge that there's a very high likelihood they would say who think about it they're just they're probably at least a third of the voting public who has never heard the name PP boo to judge wouldn't know who Cory

[5:19]

boo to judge wouldn't know who Cory Booker was vaguely might have an idea who Elizabeth Warren is from the last some last election or Pocahontas it could be that by President Trump giving Elizabeth Warren so much attention with Pocahontas it put her in second place in the polling because that's where she is she just knocked burning out so it could be that the president accidentally boosted her because at this phase with so many candidates people have heard of her and they just know that she doesn't like the president they're like well I've heard that name she isn't Joe Biden I know she doesn't like the president because he's always calling her Pocahontas that's all I need to know she's in second place so the latest poll looks like Warren's new support all K man of birdie whereas is where we expected it to happen right so we all expected that either warm nor Bernie one of them would have to fall and support

[6:20]

of them would have to fall and support we go to the others and it makes sense that it would go to the younger person it makes sense it would go to the younger woman so you know a female Bernie isn't much better Bernie if you're Democrat wouldn't you agree because they get it two for one they get these policies but then they get a you know a chance for a woman president so it stood to reason that Warren would eventually cannibalize Bernie and that's happened so let's say that that keeps happening what will happen when there's a little bit more attention on the race and we get a little closer to the primaries and people start thinking I'll I guess I should start paying attention and then they start paying attention for the first time and they see these compilation clips because you know they're coming of Biden having these missteps it's the compilation clips that it's going to push it off right if they see him
him but also if they just pay attention because he has so many gaffes at this point that just watching him in public is all you need

[7:21]

is all you need he doesn't have to have a gaffe per se because he's so confused and bumbling in public now it's just obvious he's he's not qualified anymore so when that happens where will his support go well surprisingly Budaj edge popped up into fourth place just above Paris actually solidly above Harris so Harris had a chance to hold the position that's going to get the nomination probably the whoever whoever Biden's votes go to probably gonna win so if all of those votes went to Harris she would be the nominee I'm not saying they will it is my prediction by the way and I'm only keeping the prediction because it was my original prediction it's based on an on a theory that she hits all the she hits all the checks all the boxes without being too offensive so that theory is still true she still checks a lot of

[8:21]

still true she still checks a lot of boxes if she could just stay out of her own way and stop being terrible which he could do so I'm gonna keep my prediction just to be fair I don't think it'd be fair for me to change my prediction you know every every ten minutes as the process goes along but do you think blue judge legitimately just moved into fourth place I say no here's why I say no because um I think that Biden's votes would more naturally a little bit more naturally go to Harrisons so I think that his position is as kind of close yang I think only got up to 4% so he's sort of the strongest of the weak so he's the strongest of the weak now let me give you some more advice to table Harris
it excuse me for sipping in your ear I'm just so tired but almost awake now so I

[9:25]

just so tired but almost awake now so I was listening to Harris talk about the the AR assault rifle so-called assault rifle buyback by the way do you know if they AR stands for I feel like there are at least three different theories for what a R stands for it doesn't stand for assault rifle I heard at least one person who knows more than I do somebody says Armalite and then somebody else that was it Jack pasaba k-- or i don't want to blame him if this is wrong so don't believe me i saw somewhere that the AR stood for arkansas where it was first made yeah somebody saying Armalite but beat that doesn't made I'll call them I'll call the family of weapons assault rifles so calmly Harris is joining the the Beto side that says we'll take your rifles will will do a buyback now the implication of the buyback is if you

[10:26]

implication of the buyback is if you don't give your gun in the buyback that the government will come and take your gun away here's how to fix that nobody's gonna get elected president saying we're gonna get it we're gonna go take your gun
gun what do you agree would you agree that nobody's gonna get president become president period there's just no chance zero chance of becoming president if you say we're gonna go take your guns out of your house period other somebody says Jack Poe Sabich was being sarcastic that which sounds right because everybody always argues about what a are means so it looks like in the comments so many of you were so I swear if I were gonna form an army I would just take all of you watching periscope because I know you're armed to the teeth I probably have the most I probably have the best armed audience that isn't watching Rush Limbaugh or something so so here's the deal people if the

[11:28]

so so here's the deal people if the country falls apart I am gonna form a militia you're in okay so if here's how it works if there's an EMP attack we lose all communication I guarantee that somebody in the town of Pleasanton can find me I'm easy to find so you will know where to report to me you'll have to use Pony Express to communicate but you'll know where to report I will be in charge and it'll be temporary so I'll just be in charge until we vote all right so I'll be your emergency militia leader seriously this is actually a serious offer I'm not even kidding a bit I will be your emergency militia officer you will know that if we all lose communication that you should find me and that that'll be your starting point everybody find me and find a way to

[12:28]

everybody find me and find a way to connect to me I will simply coordinator as best I can with as smart as I can to stay alive and stay safe and then once we can communicate better we'll have something like an election to see if you still want me to be in charge of your militia until the United States sets itself right okay now you don't have to join of course it's voluntary I'm just saying what's your other thing you know what would be your other plan if you lose all communication in the country this is serious I'm dead serious if the country loses all communication there you know that the trouble goes down I will be your central point of contact because everybody can find me you'll know where I am I mean you can find California you can find Pleasanton on an old-timey map if you get to Pleasanton just ask somebody where I am they'll be able to find me all right so here's Camelot calmly

[13:30]

all right so here's Camelot calmly Harris said that she wanted to a gun buyback her problem is that she is she is ambiguous about what will happen if you don't sell your gun back I'm gonna fix it for her okay I'm gonna I'm gonna present a plan that you don't like but that's not the point I'm fixing her politics I'm not saying she's gonna do it I'm not saying she's gonna be the nominee I'm not saying you like it I'm just saying that she's doing something incredibly stupid and with her policy here's how to fix it I will pretend I'm Camilla Harris and I'm trying to sell you on a gun buyback or I'm bad oh and I'm gonna sell you on a gun buyback here it is this is me selling it to you people those are your guns you bought them you own them you bought them legally I'm not going to come to your house and take them away and by the way wouldn't that be the dumbest thing anybody ever did there's no way under any conditions in my administration anybody's ever going to knock on your home and say give me

[14:31]

to knock on your home and say give me your gun unless it's a red flag situation in which case 90% of the public is sort of on the same page with that but if you're a legal gun owner and I've seen no problem no way any way anybody's going to knock on your door period what we'll have is a gun buyback window it will last I'll just say two years and for two years we'll pay you full value for your AR and here's the catch they will be illegal to use after that point I'm not recommending this if you're coming in late this is not my idea I'm not not my proposal I'm just describing a proposal that wouldn't be stupid okay that's all I'm doing and by here's the deal if you don't sell it back to us you won't be able able to use it in public again you'll never be able to go to the gun the shooting range you'll never be able to you would never be comfortable taking it out in front of you no friends you won't be you won't be

[15:34]

you no friends you won't be you won't be comfortable having it in your car you just won't be comfortable having it it won't be the same thing you thought it was
was but what happens if somebody breaks into your house you still have an AR you didn't give it up it's totally illegal you use the AR to defend your home successfully what happens when the police show up and there's a dead body in your living room and your your AR is leaning against the wall and you say yeah I didn't give up my AR I kept it I used it I shot this guy came into my house the law has to be no charges still thank you gun unfortunately still take you gun but the law has to be no charges if you kept your gun and he killed somebody anyway you know it insults offense likewise if there's a mass shooting in the church across the street and you take your AR out and you go across the street you kill the mass shooter even though it wasn't self-defense on your part again no no churches

[16:34]

churches so if Calvin Harris had that plan and said we're never going to go to a house and take it away it will just be a sort of a worthless thing unless you want to keep it hidden and somebody attacks your house and you use it you know or or let's say there's a let's say there's an EMP attack and you need to take care you've gotten to go get I don't go take care of business in that case it would also be legal in fact how about this this would be the most extreme Democrat plan you'll never see she could say if we're ever if the country is ever attacked or there's any kind of a you know revolution situation you're AR is automatically legal again how about this you can put a gun lock on your AR and keep it if you demonstrate that it's a certain kind of lock you know you can keep it at home but you can never take it out of your home even

[17:35]

can never take it out of your home even with the gun lock now that wouldn't work does you have to move sometimes you know sometimes you have to relocate your home so anyway I'm just moving through the possibilities in my opinion a gun buyback could be marginally successful in reducing the number of guns that a bad person could get their hands on so you you know you don't want somebody living in your home who does not own a gun who can get a hold of yours that's a pretty big deal so you know a gun buyback would reduce the number of opportunities for that bit of a mistake to happen how much would that matter probably not a lot I mean you're probably talking you're probably talking dozens of life per year that would make a difference in the best-case scenario if all your gun back if your entire gun buyback program worked how many people would you expect to live who would have otherwise died what's your guess let me ask you this somebody says I'm barking

[18:36]

ask you this somebody says I'm barking up at a red herring I'm pro-gun very pro-gun and I understand what you're saying you know I understand that you've got a slippery slope argument and all that I'm just working through the thinking of it I believe I have the only credible opinion on gun on gun rights in the country big statement right I'm gonna say it again I believe I have the only credible opinion on gun rights because I have the only complete opinion everyone else has an incomplete opinion that probably includes you to see if you can join me in completing it when I say a completed you know I don't mean that it's not complete in your mind it might be complete in your mind but in terms of why you're willing to share I've never seen a complete opinion I'm gonna give you the first one here's a complete opinion on guns I am I favor gun ownership the Second

[19:39]

I am I favor gun ownership the Second Amendment and here's the second part here's the price I'm willing to pay tens of thousands of innocent American lives per year if you can't say that you're not favourite guns say it out loud say it with me if you're in favor of guns say you're willing to pay the price that some low tens of thousands I don't know what the number is because you have to you might want to subtract out the suicides or whatever so maybe what is it net 15,000 what's the net after suicide of gun deaths net fifteen because remember his net you have to look at that as as most of you will as most of you will quickly jump on and say what about all the people who are saved what about all the lives that are saved by gun ownership Ryan right that counts you can't ignore

[20:40]

Ryan right that counts you can't ignore all the other people who are protected by it you can't ignore them I'm saying there's a net you know we maybe we've protected fifty thousand people and it costs us fifteen thousand not counting the suicides because that that's double that number alright so those are those of you who were pro-gun say it out loud I am willing to risk including my own you know circle of friends and family they're all a risk because we're a country it's a risky country with a lot of guns i explicitly accept the risk of fifteen thousand people who didn't need to die for the for the right of gun ownership if you can't say that you don't have an opinion so I just put that out there now that said I'm also a reasonable person doesn't sound like it maybe but I am a reasonable person and if somebody could come up with a plan

[21:41]

if somebody could come up with a plan that when and I'll just speak in general terms if somebody came up with the plan that infringed on my gun rights five percent book had reduced by half the number of gun deaths I would listen to that I would listen to that I would not say oh no no gun rights are absolutes I would say yeah gun rights you know the way it's written in the Constitution is meant to be something closer to absolute and that's why I would prefer it perhaps but I'm also a human I'm also a citizen I have empathy I care about people dying I just said it was the price I was willing to pay that it didn't say I didn't care I totally care so if somebody can come up with her idea that has some marginal little bit of impact on my total ability to do everything I'd ever want to do with a gun but it saved 10,000 people a year I would certainly listen to that

[22:42]

I would certainly listen to that argument and if you wouldn't I would question your um your credibility on this topic doesn't mean I like it but listen to it alright um corey lewandowski how many people saw that how many people saw the show corey lewandowski being interviewed by Congress I I started watching it and I suddenly came up and I couldn't finish watching it but I gotta say it was one of the most entertaining things I've seen in a long time I said this before how well president Trump entertains combines entertainment literally with politics he does it in a way that makes both of them better in other words his his jokes are funnier because they're they're about real things and we we could relate to him and they're in the news and they matter to us and stuff so his real things and real personalities that makes it funnier but the part that his critics don't get is how well he makes the

[23:43]

don't get is how well he makes the politics better by adding the humor it makes us pay attention it frames things the way he wants to frame them as all kinds of benefits it brings the energy you know we've talked about all this but the thing that is fun about this is how many people he's influencing to adopt his his method I would say the Andrew yang is absolutely influenced by Trump wouldn't you agree Andrew yang I think it was Mike sir that you said that Andrew Yang's his game is persuasion came anyway is Trump like but without the anger and I thought yeah it's Trump like without the anger what was the part that got Trump elected well the anger it was the anger because he was angry about the same things that his supporters were angry about which was part of his persuasion which is part of part of his of his magic so a drew yang is he does have all of trumps game except for the

[24:44]

have all of trumps game except for the anger and that's why is that 4% if he added a cure to that he'd be probably writing about he probably if Andrew yang added anger he and he won't and he probably shouldn't but if he did it's too late now he'd probably be running a second because he has enough of a game that if he added because remember you know fear and anger those things are and pacing leading those are so powerful and yang Yang's doing his own version where he's getting lots of attention and he's doing sort of everything positive quite quite well so if you do everything positive what's your upside 4% apparently but oddly enough I'll bet if you polled Republicans I'll bet if you polled Republicans and Reagan would also be a 4% what do you think because he's actually kind of popular with Republicans just for not being a jerk

[25:47]

Republicans just for not being a jerk most of the time yeah and for being that see the thing that makes you trust Andrew yang in this big pack of Democrats correct me if I'm wrong but the thing that makes you trust him is that he seems like he cares about the facts and so even if he disagreed with you he'd probably show you his facts and you say I disagreed with that but yeah those are facts so he's a little disarming that way every time he does something rational you say huh okay that was rational you're a thousand dollars you can't give thousand dollars well there will be robots there will be a lot of robots so every time you wanna you want to attack him for his his policy you don't like you always go a little bit of a point there it's one of the things I appreciate about it all right we were talking about Lewandowski now what was funny about it was he was clearly there to stall and make a mockery of this of the process okay we all agree that

[26:47]

the process okay we all agree that currently with lewandowski's strategy was simply to make a mockery of the process and give up nothing we all agree that's what was happening right now given that we knew that was what was happening watching him do it with a straight face for however many hours he did it was frickin hilarious all right wasn't it watching watching Nadler being watching Nadler being chewed alive by his own side and the other side and Corey Lewandowski too was one of the most entertaining things you'll ever see and I'll tell you what a question had answered here's the question that you know I think I knew the answer this already but if you ever really really wanted to know the answer of the following question so what is it the Trump season Corey Lewandowski I guess that was answered what what Trump season Corey Lewandowski other than loyalty obviously they're very close what he

[27:49]

obviously they're very close what he sees is that Corey Lewandowski understands he understands theater he understands the show and therefore he understands Trump in a way that I don't know other people do so Lewandowski knows how to surf the energy he knows how to create energy he knows how to be the show he knows how to use the show in a productive way man did he nail it you know because of the nature of it where he was just you know resisting questions it's not like you get in it nobody gives an award for that there's no Academy Award for not answering questions and there's no you know you can the Pulitzer for not answering questions but if there were any kind of a prize for a guy sitting there with a straight face and making a total mockery of the system and walking in if it looking better than he walked in if you if there was a competition for that Corey Lewandowski won it yesterday

[28:49]

that Corey Lewandowski won it yesterday it was one of the I didn't I didn't somebody said part two what he wasn't as good so I didn't see it all so in the comments those of you who did am i right there for what he was trying to do I don't think he could have done that better that was that was just a plus the whole way for what he was trying to accomplish yeah somebody said I thought Nadler would cry Natalie looked really bad at that Nadler just okay everybody say he did he did well apparently he's gonna run for office at some point and I think that will make a difference let's talk about Iran so I'm a little behind on this story but I believe this Saudi Arabia is saying we're not positive that came from Iran did you hear that so the United States would say oh yeah

[29:49]

so the United States would say oh yeah certainly we've narrowed it down to Iran you know we're very specific about where in Iran it came from so the United States is all specific yeah it's Iran and it came from this place and then Saudi Arabia who was the one actually attacked says we're not so sure we haven't seen that evidence what well are you saying that we haven't we haven't shown the evidence to Saudi Arabia now there could be a reason for that and I guess Pompey I was going over there or maybe he's there or something and he was gonna talk to him in person it could be that there are some things you simply can't or shouldn't communicate in any kind of electronic way this might be one of those because it could be that we've got secret monitoring devices somewhere or secret human assets somewhere and that if we told Saudi Arabia we knew they're gonna ask how do you know in order to believe

[30:51]

ask how do you know in order to believe it now I gotta kind of have to suggest that we have some assets that we don't want them to know about so if that's the case and that wouldn't be outlandish you can imagine that somebody would have to go in person look look the leader of Saudi Arabia in the eyes and say we know where it came from and then the leader says can you tell me how you know where it came from and you look em in the eyes and say look I'm not gonna tell you how we know it but I'm looking you in the eyes and I'm telling you there's no there's no question about it we know it with a hundred percent certainty that's all I can tell you I'm looking at in your eyes I promise you on my word we know this for certain and if you act as I was true nothing will bite you in the ass and you have my word on that now something like that might be able to communicate effectively that we do know and that Saudi Arabia might trust it if they trust the people because it's a it's a

[31:51]

trust the people because it's a it's a human business after all so that could be the purpose of the trip and P and maybe after the trip Saudi Arabia will save some version of o the United States shared with us what they know maybe they didn't but no so now we're convinced so that might be the outcome here's another theory the United States is not really good at knowing why things happened if you had to weigh the odds of these two theories one is we don't really know because it's kind of hard to know you probably don't know maybe we won't be able to find out think about it but it isn't in confidence always the first explanation for everything when you have a thing that's sort of a little bit of a mystery about it you're trying to get to the bottom of it whether it's Epstein's death or anything else isn't your first impression maybe a little bit of incompetence you remember what happened when we first heard Epstein killed

[32:53]

when we first heard Epstein killed himself and most of you probably were saying they he and somebody got to him he was murdered it was really a murder to shut him up and I said I'm day one well you know could be murder but the most likely explanation for anything you don't understand his incompetence and then we hear that the cameras weren't working in this guards were asleep and all that he didn't have a roommate now you still might say Scott's got shots you fell for the you fell for it that's all to get you off the track it really wasn't murder baby remember I'm not saying it wasn't I'm saying that the odds always tilt toward mistakes if there's a mystery always weapons of mass destruction in in Iraq what was more likely that we didn't know what Iraq had or that we did know well we didn't know

[33:55]

or that we did know well we didn't know so is it likely that we know where some cruise missiles or Jones or whatever they were is that likely that we don't know because I always think we're that the bad guys are pretty good at launching those things and keeping them below radar wouldn't you how hard would it be let's say we tried to do it let's say Russia tried to do it well I'll pick another superpower so let's say Russia will try to launch cruise missiles or I think the line between cruise missiles and a drone this a rocket-powered drone is is not much or anything I don't know so whatever they launched do you think Russia could launch several drone / those just say drones and get it to a place in the Middle East without being detected on radar in a way that tells where it came from because remember one of the things you can do with the with

[34:55]

of the things you can do with the with these devices is you can shoot them in one direction and have them circle around an attack from the other direction so it could it be that the only thing you know is the attack vector that's the only thing you picked up on radar so you don't know you don't know where they came from so do you think we have the capability to know where they came from how many of you think we have the capability to actually know where they came from satellite imagery not a night a lot of people say yes here's my opinion I believe that we have the ability to know where some things come from sometimes because that would be a better description of any war zone and you know generally speaking I'm gonna call the Middle East a war zone right now all right so if you believe that we have the capability to know where drones are coming from do we have the capability to know where they're all coming from because that I doubt I

[36:00]

coming from because that I doubt I really really doubt we can tell where all things come from we probably can pick up a lot of stuff but I'll bet the people who were were sending that stuff may have done a test run so they may have they may have already tested and found out that they had a an attack vector that would not be spotted you know they may have maybe they said an actual plane not playing they probably just sent another drone first and said well we'll send one so you see if they see it just bring it home okay they didn't see it with seven ten so and then just before I got on breaking news was the Trump was going to increase sanctions on Iran what does that tell you what it tells me is that Trump doesn't have confidence that it doesn't necessarily I'll say it necessarily it tells me Trump doesn't necessarily have confidence that we know that Iran sent those missiles from

[37:01]

that Iran sent those missiles from Iranian soil somehow it matters if it came some came from the Houthis I haven't figured out why that matters do you know why would it matter if the Iranians train and equip the Houthis and they fire the drones versus Iranians fire from their own territory should we treat those as different things Saudi Arabia wouldn't so then here's the other thing if it's not Iran who the hell is it so it's either Iran Iranian proxies or who who is the other country that could potentially in your wildest imagination have been behind it anybody I haven't heard anybody else even message right you know people talk about false flags and stuff but really do you think do you think Saudi Arabia blew up their own oil refinery maybe yeah let me put it this way if you're gonna do a false flag attack you

[38:03]

you're gonna do a false flag attack you could pull it back a little bit right you could blow up just a few things and you know maybe kill somebody that you care about if you're doing a false flag that would be enough you don't need to take out half of your industrial you're not gonna take out half of your oil output in an oil-producing country that's a false flag are you would you do that somebody is saying Israel right before the election probably not right before the elections
unless that was the play but I don't think so
were they drones or missiles yeah I don't even think we know for sure if they're drones or missiles if we don't know that we don't know where they came from can we agree on that can we agree if we don't know what they were whether they were proper missiles or just drone to some sort if we don't

[39:05]

or just drone to some sort if we don't know that we don't really know where they came from do we so my my expectation I don't think I said this out loud but what is it what I was expecting is that we would take these sanctions to draconian levels on the assumption that Iran was behind the attack and that we would not get kinetic with them meaning firing bullets and bombs and stuff because it's just not it just doesn't make sense yet if they did this and if they wanted us to find out they did it they were trying to provoke war if somebody is trying to provoke war the last thing you want to do is give it to them now somebody smart said that what they're really testing is how far this this non-death or can go so we can we can have a material impact on Iran by through trade by constricting their trade they can't have a material impact on us

[40:05]

they can't have a material impact on us doing anything except they've noticed they could mess with an oil tanker and we didn't shoot anybody in Iran maybe they're testing that because nobody died on the oil tanker and then they attack a Hoyle facility and didn't kill anybody so maybe they're testing the theory of how much stuff they can blow up in trade negotiations I would feel a little crazy to me but they're getting a little desperate when you think now I'm gonna say again that I'm positive there's some conversation going on in Iran at the inner circle level in which they're discussing and when to take the Ayatollah out that's got to be happening because you know that anytime you have a situation like this at the very least people are disagreeing on the best path there is no way in the world that his inner circle is all agreeing any more than then Bolton and Trump and Pompeyo would agree

[41:06]

Bolton and Trump and Pompeyo would agree you can't put people together at that level give them this high importance of a question and expect they're all in the same page because they're not it's not human it would wouldn't be normal if they're all in the same page so you know that some conversations going on in Iran about the competence of their leader and his age is going to be part of that question have you ever met an 80 year old who's just as good as a 70 year old probably not so you know they're having a Joe Biden question over there and it's probably a serious one and if you're the United States you probably have some insight that a little that is happening and so maybe you let that play out a little bit let let their process do what it should which is remove an 80 year old guy when it's time now I guess he's Ayatollah for life right so you know it wouldn't be easy it wouldn't be easy but they might know what they need to do and this attack on Saudi Arabia if we go

[42:10]

this attack on Saudi Arabia if we go easy on Iran even let's say we let lets say this let's say we find out that Iran was absolutely behind the attack I think and process of elimination tells us we probably will reach that point because wells would have been and so let's say we reach that point what's our best play if we attack the ayatollahs support increases so the day we attack everybody says darn it look what he got us into but we got a we got to protect the homeland so we're all on board now I don't want to tell us what you want us to do that might be our worst play the best play might be to say look what your leader just did you've got an old man who just attacked a country that hadn't attacked him I mean at least not militarily he just for you at the risk of complete destruction but guess what he did destroy you

[43:11]

but guess what he did destroy you completely because we're gonna shut down all of your trade now who knows what Trump's doing he says he's strengthening the sanctions and I honestly I don't know how much we have left that's real that you can that you can tighten this would give this attack would give Trump a full free pass to tighten sanctions to the point where the public is in serious trouble you know they're already in big trouble but there's probably another level of trouble after that that's literally starvation and I think that if this attack is pinned on Iran for good the smartest play is to squeeze their economy in a way that we would not have otherwise and make sure that the Iranians know that the newest squeeze the one that hurts even the inner circle the one the one that makes people die in the streets that that last squeeze was because of this attack and if they do another attack then you take their

[44:11]

another attack then you take their economy to the next level and and if you had to do something kinetic I like using that cuz it makes me sound like I'm a TV pundit who knows who knows his military stuff which I don't but if we did an attack don't you think we take care a [Music] power grid right we probably take out a power grid and we'd make sure we didn't kill anybody so I have a feeling that the Iranian leadership is being squeezed to make an internal change and that the way you do that is you don't go and hard and kill Iranian people you say Iranian people we're on your side people in Iran we are squarely on your side because you're cool because guess what the the the population of Iran I say this whole time they are cool they're cool people love to be allies with with Iran if we could be if we could someday be close allies with Iran let's say a non Ayatollah

[45:12]

Ayatollah that'll be the ultimate outcome that would be the ultimate and we should and we can I think you can say there are countries maybe we could never be friends with maybe but Iran isn't one of them you know that it's I think it's in our DNA that we can get along if we just get there Ayatollah and of the way and I think the Iranian people at least the pro-western segment which is huge would agree with that statement
so I think Trump is the smartest person in the room when it comes to this stuff and what I mean by this stuff is human nature nobody understands human nature like President Trump it's what made him president is what made him successful as a president it's why he's talking to Kim jong-un and their buddies it's why he can go hard on China and still be respectful very respectful to President Xi it's actually why you know he was saying recently respected all the

[46:13]

saying recently respected all the Democrat candidates because it takes it takes the Zipp animal if he went harder at them they'd have more to push it back against but he's leaving them with nothing to push he gets yeah I respect them all they all do a good job so president Trump understands human nature like nobody else maybe this is turned from a a political military situation which of course it always is to a human being situation once you reduce the military problem to a human being problem the way he did with North Korea the president simply redefined it as a human being problem hey Kim come on over we'll work this out the moment he did that everything good happened everything good happened when he redefined it as a human being problem not a military problem and now the president will never be able to be with the Ayatollah I think we agree right the president no this president no presidents ever going to be with the Ayatollah because he I told him

[47:13]

with the Ayatollah because he I told him won't do it and if he did it would be way stunt but the next leader of Iran is probably going to be selected in part because remember it's a selection process if you don't know how the the process works in Iran my understanding is and I'll give you the the idiots you know the idiots description this is the dummy's version so assume all the details are wrong for the basic idea is that there's some kind of you know High Council of clerics core sort of the let's call them there's like the Supreme Court plus by analogy pad analogy but they're they're sort of the leading group they got there through whatever combination of political machinations or religious mass Nations but anyway they're the group that selects from among their group the Ayatollah and they have to be supportive of the Ayatollah for that I told Tuesday now I presume that once

[48:13]

I told Tuesday now I presume that once you become Ayatollah you you take care of controlling everything to the point where even your Supreme Council whatever they're called can't really remove you very easily you know once you get the job you're probably pretty bulletproof but you know they're talking about it and you know they've got number two already picked out because wouldn't you I mean if your leader is 80 you start looking around saying who's our back-up plan back-up plan so you know they've got a back-up plan if the back-up plan guy is willing to meet with Trump just conceptionally you know if he became the Ayatollah and if it were acid if the situation were right what do you meet with Trump well then you've got something then you've got something I've been saying for a while and it's actually in my book I hope it doesn't the reality doesn't change before my book drops November 5th it's called loser think it's getting rave reviews already from early reviewers you will

[49:14]

already from early reviewers you will love it probably be my biggest book but
well as I say I just went to sell book selling Road and completely lost my train of thought oh so what I'm saying is in the book and I'm saying now is that the Middle East might be one Ayatollah away from peace because think about it all the other countries are either you know not militaristic directly you know they might be funding somebody who's doing some terrorist stuff but Iran is sort of the big problem you know Saudi Arabia and Israel seem to be willing to get along Egypt you know so most of the Arab countries are willing to at least live in peace with Israel which is you know most of the game right so if you if if Iran were to come into the VAT let's say the the nation of people of nation of awesome

[50:15]

nation of people of nation of awesome people how close are we to that happening on its own we're this close because what what is the somebody who has a second device open Google for me the life expectancy of an 80 year old please so just put it in the comments what is the once you turn 80 what is your life expectancy from that point forward five years is that stretching it five years maybe I would say the the next five years the odds of him dying or yeah I mean it could be six months right it could be six months on average so if you've got a guy who seems to be the problem and he's within
I'm seeing lots of numbers here but they all look like guesses seeing lots of people saying so this looks low somebody says 9 for women 7 for men so you might

[51:16]

says 9 for women 7 for men so you might have 7 years really I'm 91 in the 9.1 in the US yeah okay so it might be longer than I thought I think I think the trick here is that once you reach 80 that tells the that tells us that there's something healthy about you in general so if you reach 80 and you're still in good health your odds of going a few more years are probably pretty good so let's say it's let's say it's seven years max if it's seven years max it's probably something closer to no it can't be an X they can't expect you to live that long that can't be right there's no way that an 80 year old is expected to live seven more years that can't be right I wouldn't expect it all right well whatever it is my point stands if you're 80 there's a good chance you're gonna be taking the dirt nap pretty soon the Iranian leadership

[52:17]

nap pretty soon the Iranian leadership has to be talking about that and maybe they can speed it up because you know maybe there's a way to retire but probably if you're the Ayatollah you can't retire because somebody will kill you so maybe you don't have that options all right
so Trump's instinct to push on the economics instead of to get military and I'm assuming you won't get military if if so if nothing else comes to light if we don't learn a new shocking fact about this I would not expect him to get military I would expect him to go draconian on their economy because you want them to see that that's the response yeah you can blow up another refinery yep you can you can blow up another refinery and we're not going to start a war your economy will be completely done then like completely will blockade you maybe but we're not

[53:17]

will blockade you maybe but we're not gonna start a war blow up as much stuff as you want you'll just be destroying yourself I'm not hitting you you're hitting yourself I'm not hitting you you're hitting yourself stop hitting yourself alright is there anything else going on anything else interesting I don't think so I think we I think we got it done for today alright so that's all the good news and I will talk to you Oh somebody says what's the slaughter meter the slaughter meter is that 100% that are the odds of President Trump winning re-election if everything and the definition of the slaughter meter is that if everything stayed the way it is today and we just extend it to Election Day
Day would the president win and if everything stayed the way it is today yeah he'd win hundred percent so something big would have to change between now and then I talked about Ed buck and

[54:22]

Saudi Arabia just confirmed Iran attack oh don't go until I check that out is that because Pompeo is there
look at the headlines here new security adviser who's the new security adviser robert o'brien he's a hostage negotiator okay I don't see it on the headlines maybe it's on Fox do too yeah I don't see it I guess it takes well it's probably on the live news probably on the live news before it gets to there all right so we'll check on that and that's all we have and I'll talk to you later have a great day