Episode 665 Scott Adams: The Guy Who Saved the Planet, TwitterPhilanthropy, Pancakes, Iran

Date: 2019-09-17 | Duration: 1:00:21

Topics

My new book LOSERTHINK goes on sale 11/5 Pre-order: https://bit.ly/2NRammu Special Guest: Mr. Gomez, the selected winner of $1,000 a teacher who uses “Talent Stack” concepts CNN article frames nuclear as USED TO BE dangerous Mark Schneider, Mike Shellenberger deserve a LOT of credit NYT Kavanaugh smear story, it was the NYT editor’s error? A NYT top-tier editor accidentally did that? Is Mollie Hemingway the most effective communicator on the right?
Pancakegate, funniest ridiculous anti-Trump story circulating Shane Gillis, fired for being a comedian Tim Xeriland’s well done video with audio overlay of me (ref. Nike) Iran’s attack on Aramco was reportedly cruise missiles What was the motivation for a seemingly really bad move?

Rough Transcript

This is an auto-generated transcript and may contain errors.

Transcript

[0:04]

pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom hey everybody come on here here it’s the it’s the best part of your day it’s a special part of the day it’s the day when you get to have a Seibel - simultaneous if not just with me but with all the people around the world watching this at the same time feel connected to humanity fuel that you dopamine surging through your body feel your day getting better just sitting there with your cup of beverage and you know it doesn’t take much to join in it’s easy everybody can do it you don’t need much you know what you need oh he needs a couple of mugger glasses time to tell us thank you thermos Alaska can t McGrail a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I’m partial to coffee join me now for the unparalleled pleasure the simultaneous it well today I have a special guest a special guest it’s a

[1:06]

special guest a special guest it’s a little update to something you know about I was working with Bill pulled a to give away a little bit of his money thousand dollars and I was experimenting so if you don’t know bill pulled bill Polti and he’s at at Polti pul T is doing sort of a long-term moving experiment in which he’s attempting to redefine philanthropy or create a new model for philanthropy on the Internet hashtag internet philanthropy and he asked me to try an experiment so the experiment was up to me but he just said how would you like to give away some of my money do it the way you want to see what happens all right so the the the nature of this is experimentation we’re going to see what’s happening here’s what I did this different I tried to create a system as opposed to a goal and the system is that I wanted to see

[2:07]

and the system is that I wanted to see if if we could do more than just give money to something where somebody who needs it that would be great that would be a goal what’s your goal give some money to somebody who needs it but what’s a system the system would be something where everybody involved gets something out of it and so you’d want to do more of it so give me money once it’s great but creating a system where more people might give more money in the future well that’s better so I wanted to experiment with that and what I did was explicitly selfish and unselfish and visible at the same time so that’s my system I wanted to do something that was selfish meaning that I personally as the giver in this case I’m giving away bill pull tazed money but it is a experiment as the giver I would give something out of it so that I would be incented and others would who were in my situation to do the same thing later the person who gets the money or entity gets something out of it so they like it so so far you

[3:08]

out of it so they like it so so far you have two winners and then the third part I was experimenting with is the audience so breaking the the fourth wall and getting the audience involved so you’re the audience so now you’re watching the experiment you’re gonna help me evaluate it maybe somebody will someday decide to do something similar but here’s what I did did I wanted to promote the idea that’s in one of my books about talent stacks and systems / goals would be great - two ideas I think are powerful they’re associated with me so that’s the selfish part if somebody like that idea they might be more likely to buy my book I’m putting that right out there right then there’s nothing hidden it’d be great if people bought that book that’s good for me what would I do if people bought my book well I’d have more money I’d probably give more money way you know sort of a virtuous circle so I have selected from among people who say that they had some involvement in the talents stack in a school setting on Twitter I said is there anybody using the idea of a talent stack out there and I will I

[4:12]

a talent stack out there and I will I will give them the money and that will be an excuse for me to show that the talent stack is yawn maybe other people will hear about it maybe other teachers will hear about it through this so I’m gonna I’m trying to get secondary benefits third level benefits fourth level benefits so it’s a gift it’s philanthropy but I’m looking for a big play right by making a system that gives visibility spreads an idea that’s very powerful and so I would like to introduce you to the winner mr. Gomez jr. Gomez say I and mr. Gomez should I call you jr. okay well I’m gonna call you mr. Gomez just out of respect and to reinforce that you are a teacher where are you teaching and tell us about where you first heard of the talents stack in in how you teach and how do people

[5:46]

in how you teach and how do people respond to it so the first time a kid hears that they don’t have a cap on where they can go if they use a simple model of just stacking skills together which is very approachable there whoa does it blow kids minds do you think they get it are they too young what what’s what’s he feedback you get for the kids you know I might be biased but you sound like the smartest teacher I’ve ever been in my life and I’m not even joking about that by the way because you know obviously I’m biased because you’ve been influenced by some of the things I’m saying but the fact that you’ve picked up on exactly all the right stuff and applied it in exactly the right place in exactly the right way it’s pretty impressive it’s pretty impressive I got

[6:48]

impressive it’s pretty impressive I got to say you impressed me so so you’ve received your money now right that is terrific and I thank you a lot for being part of you know understanding that getting the message out about what you’re doing could be the most powerful thing that we do today because if more people get this idea it’s just so motivating to know that there’s a real easily approachable way out I also love the fact that you said that you combine the concept with stories because as a teacher you know it’s the story that works you know yeah so you are my

[7:56]

works you know yeah so you are my favorite teacher of all time you’re it’s official I think you’re brilliant and I love what you’re doing and I’m glad that you could join us and thanks so much for thanks so much for even contacting me and telling me that you’re using this stuff I think it’s just a great way to start the day just hearing this story all right I’m gonna I’m gonna sign off with you and get on with stuff but thanks so much and we will talk to you later bye for now all right doesn’t that make you feel good all right so you don’t have to answer me right now but just evaluate evaluate how I’ve tried to systemize this process all right I’m being overtly obvious as much as I can so there’s nothing hidden this is partly for me that’s what makes it a system because I would want to do this again if it works if I get good feedback from her I’m gonna say huh I gave away a thousand dollars and it turned out good for me well wouldn’t that be great that I’ll do it again

[8:56]

that be great that I’ll do it again somebody else gets a thousand dollars so and then the fourth wall as I said that’s really the important part if I can if I can use philanthropy just spread an idea the idea is more far more powerful than a thousand dollars and look how much look how much attention that idea is gonna get for a thousand dollars all right and that’s all pulled a because yeah I wasn’t gonna do this you know yeah bill came up with the concept he’s the one who’s testing it for the record by the way we paid him with PayPal because I know there’s gonna be somebody here some critic who says all right you’re collecting names I think you saw the data data mining scheme and it’s you know it’s some kind of scheme with Jack Dorsey and the cash app so just just to take that off the table we just said I’ll just pay with PayPal yeah just take take that conversation off the table all right

[9:57]

conversation off the table all right let’s talk about something else let’s talk about the the guy who saved the planet have you ever had a fantasy that you could save the planet I have that one all the time you know you’re when I was young you know when you were thinking of you were Superman or some things like I’ll save the planet now I wasn’t Trump wasn’t Trump here’s my here’s my thinking now of course there’s a little bit of hyperbole in this but let me let me tell you where I’m going let’s say climate change is a big problem world is going to be destroyed if somebody could fix climate change well at least half of the world would say you fixed climate change well you just saved the world so a little bit of hyperbole but you know what I’m talking about now let’s say you didn’t believe in climate change being a problem obviously the climate changes but what could be a problem well even then you still need nuclear if you want to be a successful country that

[10:57]

you want to be a successful country that can feed all of its people and meet all of its obligations and do what our world needs to do still need nuclear because we don’t have a another path that can get us all the way there and so yesterday was a yesterday day before recently CNN just did a big piece that was unabashedly pro-nuclear and it was pro-nuclear in a very specific way which is what caught my attention it would be one thing to see an article that says that somebody who’s always said nuclear is good is still saying it hey get some nuclear that would have been one thing and it would not have been impressive but instead the way the article was framed it talked about how nuclear used to be scarier but the public is not up to date so so check this framing the framing is that it used to be dangerous but the public doesn’t know how well the the industry has

[12:00]

know how well the the industry has evolved and gotten to a point where those same dangers not so dangerous it also explained that the only people who have ever died from a nuclear energy accident were in Chernobyl and everything about that is different they didn’t they didn’t even build it with a containment a containment dome or whatever it is so if you compare anything to Chernobyl that’s an invalid comparison but if you look at the other so-called disasters from Fukushima to Three Mile Island whatever nobody died nobody ever zero you have zero zero deaths so but what caught what caught my attention about the article is that it was CNN it’s the type of article you would fully expect to see on Fox News conservatives and Republicans are are pretty much pro-nuclear and happened forever but getting CNN’s kraut getting the left the

[13:02]

getting CNN’s kraut getting the left the Democrats to be on board is the big deal I think it made a difference they Andrew Yang and Cory Booker were both pro-nuclear and I’ve it’s that’s hard to you can’t ignore that right because once your side is saying it and here here’s the catch who are the two smartest people among the Democrats if you’re just going to measure pure brain power the two smartest people running for president well might be yang and Booker right if you I don’t know if you know Booker’s credentials but he’s a lot smarter than you and I are that’s for sure academically so somebody’s saying Warren I think you could throw her in the mix she’s obviously very very smart but yeah I think it a smart that’s somebody’s saying Buddha changers really smart okay you got me you got me Buddha jej is very smart too they have some really smart people there you gotta

[14:03]

some really smart people there you gotta you can’t take that away from her right but the the way to save the earth was that the people on the left the CNN crowd had to move their minds to where the right already was in both cases they both needed to be you know more educated but it looks like that’s happening right now meaning that it looks like CNN by the fact that they do even run this article and the nature of it and the specific way it was framed as things used to be bad but you don’t realize that we’re gonna educate you things are actually much safer with modern technology and I’m going to credit mark Schneider as being probably the most influential voice on social media now of course Michael Shellenberger gets yes get gigantic credit i’m not going to rank them in terms of who’s more effective so they’re doing their

[15:04]

more effective so they’re doing their different types of persuasion I would say Shellenberger is a little more emphasis on current generation three stuff things we can do right now and well mark Schneider is a little more emphasis on generation four and what’s right around the corner and you know we’re not quite there with a design everybody loves but that’s where we need to push to so they’re very productive as a a pair you know one grounding you with what we can do right now one taking your mind to you know thinking past the sale if you will from do you do nuclear to which type so I feel I feel as if they’ve moved the move the dial those of you have been watching this unfold over maybe two years would you agree would you agree that first of all mark Snyder and Sheldon Berger are the two most effective advocates for sure and that

[16:07]

effective advocates for sure and that the two of them are sort of a perfect pair even if they may they may have some differences in preferences on the on the margins but basically ones telling you what you can do now once telling you where your mind is going to go very very good double punch and I of course have been trying to be as helpful as possible boosting the signal wherever I can I try to help frame things so that the the message has the most power it possibly can can well I feel like I feel like some kind of corner recently turned have you noticed that when I’ve been pushing on nuclear I get very little pushback you know and I’m not the expert or anything but even when I’m promoting nuclear if you look in the comments it’s very unusual for any topic to get as little pushback as as as any of us are getting on nuclear think about it think about

[17:08]

on nuclear think about it think about how lack of pushed there is when anybody who’s pro-nuclear just lays out their case you don’t really see people even with much of a problem somebody says it’s because I block people yes that one person I block every every two days is totally changing the situation all right let’s talk about something else there are some stories that are horrible and entertaining at the same time and I feel like I will be a terrible person if I were to reveal how entertained I am at a story that about death so you know you’ve been warned but there’s a story today about apparently three teenagers with masks were approaching some rural home in Georgia I think it was Georgia yeah and as the three I think they were armed as well as the three masked

[18:10]

armed as well as the three masked teenagers approached the home the the neighbor the neighbor opened up fire which is totally legal I guess because he was protecting his home so the neighbor opens up with fire and then I don’t know if we have all the facts but it sounds like this is what happened it looks like there was a handgun involved with the first first series of shots and then some witness was saying that soon after that they heard an AR go off so I apparently the neighbor heard some gunshots and came out and and he just they just blew away the three kids so the three I’m calling them kids because there were teens I don’t know all they were but they were teenagers and they were coming to rob this guy’s house and the guy laid down fire with his handgun until his neighbor could come over with the AR and should have shot that say there’s a job and and here’s the part they killed all three of them and and the homeowner in the neighbor were uninjured their property was protected and they just murdered all not murdered it was self-defense but he they killed

[19:13]

it was self-defense but he they killed all three of them no charges filed that’s the punchline these two neighbors just riddled these three idiots with bullets literally just just shot him to pieces in their front yard no charges filed now that’s the sort of story that can reduce burglary burglary rates so those those of you who are people remind me every day it’s like Scott Scott when you talk about guns you forget I believe the burglars had some kind of firearm it was a little unclear in the story but I there was something about return fire so I think they did so people say Scott Scott you’re always forgetting the the murders that didn’t happen because somebody had a gun and I don’t forget that but you can still talk about the net you know if the net death is high you’d still like the net number of

[20:13]

you’d still like the net number of people getting killed by guns to be lower it doesn’t matter that you know it doesn’t matter that both the numbers are very high you’re talking about you’d rather save more people than kill them so it’s still a goal to reduce gun deaths even though I acknowledge that certainly the existence of defensives weapons of course reduces the number of some kinds of crimes in some cases all right the new york times story is getting it’s just getting sadder you know the story the new york times ran a story i guess it was based on a book which talked about some somebody accusing Supreme Court justice Cavanaugh of exposing himself in some high school situation and what the New York Times left out of the story is that the alleged victim refuses to comment so they don’t have any comment from the victim and the other witnesses say it didn’t happen no not witnesses because it didn’t

[21:15]

no not witnesses because it didn’t happen but the the Friends of the alleged victim say that the alleged victim say it didn’t happen or they don’t remember or she doesn’t remember it that’s it not that it didn’t happen but she doesn’t remember it now that of course is completely exculpatory information had they been in the original story that there’s no known victim that would be pretty important right and the victim has no idea what you’re talking about that’s important now the new the update well first of all a hat tip to Molly Hemingway who was the one who caught that discrepancy I believe she saw the book and noticed that the article was not compatible with it left out a key point and I thought to myself if Molly Hemingway had not noticed that would anybody else have noticed it what if nobody noticed think about thinking about how close we were

[22:16]

about thinking about how close we were how close we were to something truly awful if that if that rumor had been allowed to just sit out there that was truly awful and the only thing like seven billion of us in the world right we’re going about our business all seven billion of us we were gonna do anything about it but thank God I’m all you have anyway did something about it right because it changes the whole nature of the thing it put it puts in New York Times and that I would say almost a death spiral of lack of credibility that’s too much they’re not going to grant a business because of this but that’s a really big deal yeah I I’ve been saying for a while that if you were to bake a cake let’s say if you were to pull together an all-star team let’s say an all-star team of I let’s say Trump supporters if we can say that she’d probably be the captain of the team I would say Molly

[23:17]

captain of the team I would say Molly Hemingway is the most effective communicator on the right would you agree you’re not not counting president Trump himself but for those who are say on the supportive side with the president I would say she would be the most effective communicator if you could if you combine both her ability to speak in public and communicate so she has all the the top level skills but on top of that she seems to have the best knowledge and ideas - I mean yeah you’re mentioning a number of other names and they’re all strong in their own way taking nothing away from them but I think she would have to be the captain of the team if you were forming a team I think all the people they just mention yeah Byron reorg is great Kim’s Drossel amazing yeah there’s a lot of other people but yeah Candice etc but I think if they were to sit in a room and had to pick their own captain I think they’d pick her I think

[24:18]

captain I think they’d pick her I think they would pick her so anyway compliments are my point is that the latest update on this story is that the writers are blaming the editors so the writers are saying that information was in there but the editors took out a sentence that had the name of the alleged victim because as a policy the New York Times would not show the name of the victim and so when they took the sentence out that the victims name the speculation from the writers is that they they cut too much and it got a little bit too much context and had that story going in the way they originally wrote it it would have been you know had all the right context now let me give you some listen let me give you some context from my experience to get a sense of the odds of that explanation being correct all right so the first thing you need to know is that the the the explanation that somebody did

[25:20]

the explanation that somebody did something dumb it’s always the best explanation all right if you have multiple competing explanations one of them is it’s a clever scheme to take over the country you’re it’s a conspiracy theory and the other explanation that fits the facts is well somebody made a mistake usually it’s the simple one somebody made a mistake usually that’s all this but let me give you let me give you some context so I’ve worked with the New York Times editors before I don’t know I’ve worked with Wall Street Journal literature’s I’m working with him right now actually doing something that might be Wall Street Journal if I’m lucky so I’ve worked with the top editors in publishing and newspapers for most of my career here’s what I know that you don’t know there’s a really big difference between an editor who’s working for a

[26:22]

between an editor who’s working for a top publication New York Times Wall Street Journal etc then there is from someone who just knows how to be an editor right there’s a big difference between my my publishing editors at penguin and you know the top level of people I’m saying they are top level people to be clear so the top publishers you know my publisher New York Times Wall Street Journal those editors are the ones fixing the mistakes for the writers and the writers are very qualified right so just so we understand this the writers for any of those publications those top levels are the best writers in the world that’s how they get to be in the best publications in the world in terms of you know all the ways we measure best publication now carrying the fake news question right but otherwise best publication and the editors are way better than them because the editors are the ones are fixing

[27:22]

the editors are the ones are fixing people who are already really really good at what they do in my experience that would be very unusual for an editor operating at that level to make that mistake not impossible so I’m not going to tell you oh that didn’t happen but if you tried to weigh the odds you know was it an honest mistake versus did somebody say you know I just kind of liked it better without that information I both of those seem unlikely which is interesting the the odds that they intentionally looked at that and said I think we’ll put this in without the context that changes it completely feels actually hard to believe in other words I don’t believe it it but how likely is it that it was just stake possible it’s possible but pretty darn unlikely in my experience and when

[28:25]

darn unlikely in my experience and when I say it’s unlikely it would be like you know you it’d be like you handed in Michael Jordan and Alice a let’s say you handed Shaquille O’Neal a basketball while he’s standing directly below the hoop and he can reach up him and he can just put it through the hoop and you say to yourself all right Shaquille it’s your job there’s nobody playing defense you just have to take the ball and just reach it up and just go like that and drop this is the hoop what are the odds that you can do that successfully now it’s not impossible that Shaquille’s drunk or crazy or playing around and he goes up there and the like hits the rim and it bounces out like it could happen I’m not saying that that could never happen in any world no matter what but in terms of the difficulty level that’s very analogies work to make a point analogies don’t work to make an argument okay so the point is how simple it is so

[29:27]

okay so the point is how simple it is so that editing that editing event of taking out their sentence and still making sure that the all the context was there was so simple to do right it was like Shaquille just tried to drop a ball into a basket with no defense might have been a mistake you never know all right are you watching pancake gate the funniest story of the day there’s some relative of trumps who’s claiming that when he visited his I guess ancestral home where his mother lived in Scotland however long ago it was that he forgot somebody whose husband had died and then stole some pancakes by putting the stole they used the word stole he stole pancakes and put them in his pocket that’s right there’s a story in Newsweek that President Trump when he visited relatives grabbed a pile of pancakes and put them in his pocket

[30:32]

put them in his pocket now I don’t know his somebody says whiz syrup why not why not it doesn’t make the story any less ridiculous so let’s say I had syrup on it let’s say add syrup and you know there were there were strawberries on it let’s say it was a big stack and let’s say the only way he could fit in his pocket is if it’s like squashed it all up it just fit in his pocket like that why not because the story itself is so ridiculous there isn’t a there isn’t the slightest chance is true there’s not the slightest chance now if he quote stole some pancakes let’s define steal did he see that there was a big spread of food and more than anybody could eat and did he MA for example that I know baron or somebody was hungry and might like a pancake did

[31:33]

was hungry and might like a pancake did he put them in a plastic bag and take a little to go pancake for I know his kid or whatever for someone else I don’t know baby but I’ve got a feeling that the way is expressed as he’s a pancake stealer who puts pancakes in his pocket that’s probably not the most accurate story you’ve ever read today all right if any of you are losing connection just sign off and sign back on it’ll be fine promise you Shayne Gillis comedian who made the the offensive remarks about asian-americans so he lost his job over that because the tape surfaced you remember the Andrew yang had said and he reinforced I guess he did another interview he said that comedians should be treated differently I like that answer I like that answer I

[32:34]

I like that answer I like that answer I do agree the comedians should be treated differently and that if a comedian crosses a line you shouldn’t treat it the same if they’re doing it in the in the service of thinking they’re funny and they just miss because missing a joke is not like being racist they’re very different right so I was thinking about this Shane Gillis guy because I saw a little recording of the offensive thing he did and I was mentally comparing it to Dave Chappelle’s stand-up comedy and I thought what’s the difference between the types of things that Chappelle said and not only did he not lose his job Chappelle but he was critically acclaimed and you know a lot of people including me are calling it one of the greatest performances of comedy of all time I mean it’s actually one for the ages it was that good so why does she pal get away with it and this poor guy Gilles gets fired

[33:35]

and this poor guy Gilles gets fired before his first day of work on Saturday live here’s the difference Chappelle is funny Chappelle is funnier that’s it you could get away with all kinds of stuff if you’re funny because if people laugh they say oh I get it you’re being offensive to make me laugh it did make me laugh I get it you know I’m laughing at myself for you know treating seriously the topic when you were just trying to make me laugh so it’s the laugh when you look when you looked at the old tape of Gilles saying the comments he said you couldn’t even tell he was trying to be funny really I mean I don’t know if he was but if he were if he was if he was he failed so that’s that’s a comedy rule and it’s one that I follow with my comics I often draw a comic in draft form and I look at it and say oh that’s gonna that’s gonna make somebody mad that’s gonna offend

[34:36]

make somebody mad that’s gonna offend somebody and then I ask the second question how funny is it if it’s funny enough all offend people because only the truly humorless people are going to be bothered and you can’t help them there’s nothing you can do to help them but if it’s funny I will defend it because it’s humor and if people are laughing I’ll say see that’s what I was trying to do is see there’s people laughing that’s funny that’s why I did it so it’s not about the offense but the offense is part of the juice it’s part of the energy of it so it’s it’s using something people would recognize as offensive but repurposing it into a joke which is the art of it Chapelle does that like maybe nobody’s ever done and Gilles just doesn’t do it so he got fired maybe he will learn let’s talk about Iran now let’s talk about so a Twitter user Tim zaral and I may be

[35:39]

a Twitter user Tim zaral and I may be pronouncing it wrong because it starts with an X his last name he’s at X er ila and D but I I tweeted this today so you can see it any tweeted a Nike ad that Kapernick use and it’s a in which it’s one of the just do it ads and one of the main themes is the skateboarder who’s trying to scape or down a long set of railing and he keeps falling off onto the concrete and getting back up and until he till he makes it work and the essence of the commercial is how amazing this guy is because he doesn’t quit you know he falls off the rails and he just gets back on and does again and somebody took my this Tim zero and took my audio from when I was talking about it on periscope and dubbed my audio over the commercial so you can see the visual of the commercial but you can hear me talking about how dumb it is and it’s actually pretty well done so take a look

[36:40]

actually pretty well done so take a look at that you won’t know that it’s my voiceover when you see the tweet you actually have to play the tweets no it’s me me and then somebody mocked me by saying in response to that tweet somebody on Twitter said to me sounds like he had a fun childhood as opposed to the famous skateboarder so he was saying the skateboarders you know living his life just doing it having a good good life the people like me probably did not have a good childhood to which I responded which one of us had more concussions just letting that lay there for a minute I could say more about that but I think I said it all I would be willing to bet a very large amount of money that said skateboarder has brain damage maybe not the kind that keeps him from going to work but certainly the kind that will

[37:40]

work but certainly the kind that will affect his life in a way that he will not like the entire ad showed him skateboarding on top of a rail falling repeatedly on concrete without wearing a helmet without wearing a helmet without wearing a helmet he had no helmet this was Nike they support sports she said they showed somebody playing an extreme sport with obvious risk of head injury with no helmet totally despicable all right and I have no concussions so how about that stock meta ran so the Iranian situation with the attacks on Aramco oil facilities is of course we’re just now pulling out of the fog of war so in the fog of war it looked like the Houthis in Yemen launched some kind of sophisticated drone attack that flew many miles into a neighboring country and did with pinpoint accuracy take out

[38:43]

and did with pinpoint accuracy take out much of an oil facility now when I heard that I said to myself that sounds like something I didn’t think could happen and the current situation the updates are it probably did not happen that in fact the Houthis are probably taking credit for something they did not do because they would not have that capability number one it looks like it was not drones had it been drones I would have said yeah maybe they could do that you know I mean they would have had to get the drones from somebody else meaning Iran but maybe they could do that but apparently they were cruise missiles now I don’t think the Houthis have cruise missiles and it looks like preliminary they were launched from Iran and that they were launched on a path that was intended to

[39:43]

launched on a path that was intended to disguise where they came from in other words it handed him the wrong they handed in the wrong aggression before the right direction reportedly some of them did not succeed and blow up at their destination but rather have been captured in tact which some people are saying would give whoever found them enough information to know where they came from is that a thing if you find an unexploded cruise missile does it still have in its memory I guess information about where it came from does it store that because it seems to me if I were going to send a cruise missile the first thing I do is a race or at least have a program in there that it would erase any mention of where it came from is that that’s not a thing you know really we they’re making cruise missiles these sophisticated devices and when it lands if it’s unexploded you can tell exactly where it came from

[40:45]

tell exactly where it came from maybe I’m not going to rule that out but I’m surprised to hear that so here’s what’s developing so there’s still some uncertainty about whether Iran was involved but maybe we’ll nail that down maybe we won’t and so the question I asked myself is what exactly would Iran be trying to accomplish by doing this and I’m a little bit confused on the motivation aren’t you if you were if you were the Iranian supreme leader and you wanted to guarantee that your country got destroyed and bad things happen to you you while making not much impact whatsoever on your enemies this is the sort of thing you do because what exactly did Iran think would happen let’s say hypothetically we determine it was that how do we explain the motivation because

[41:46]

how do we explain the motivation because I don’t get it do you so I certainly understand if they thought they could not be detected if they thought they could not be detected then I suppose anything you do to a mortal enemy is fair game but if they were not detected were they trying to make it look like the Houthis had more power than they do well in exactly what way were they trying to influence Saudi Arabia see that parts missing right because what would you reasonably expect to happen there were two possibilities if the Houthis ended up let’s say incorrectly being blamed because they took credit for it I think taking credit for it is probably something that the Iranian asked them to do don’t you think just speculating but with the Houthis take credit for it just for no reason not for no reason but would they do it for their own reasons do they have an internal reason to take credit for it because it feels like they don’t because it would just make Saudi Arabia angrier

[42:47]

it would just make Saudi Arabia angrier or would it make them want to they’re certainly not well let me put it this way if the point was for the Houthis to convince Saudi Arabia to stop supporting the government in Yemen I always think that would work the opposite right because how could Saudi Arabia abide by allowing the Houthis to let’s say prevail in Yemen if they’re the ones who just took out their oil refinery and they’re right on their border I don’t see any situation in which the Houthis said ah you know it’d be good is to attack a major infrastructure within the country that were right next to here’s some here’s some terrorist advice don’t attack a major installation of the country you’re right next to if it’s a much bigger country this just feels like bad strategy right so certainly anything they do with in Yemen feels like it’s

[43:47]

they do with in Yemen feels like it’s contained but I don’t get the strategy now it could be I’m just not seeing it so there may be in an hour somebody will go on CNN and say or Fox News and say here’s why they did it makes perfect sense and I’ll say okay I didn’t think that what I haven’t heard yet so I can’t see the Houthis thinking it would be in their self-interest and yet they took credit for it which suggests that the Iranians might have asked them to take credit to you know to conceal what they did so then here’s the thing why would I ran want to cause this much damage with the high risk of being detected you have to think if it’s if they were a cruise missiles do they really think we’re not gonna detect cruise missiles I mean I feel like we could do that I know it looks like we will so why would they do something that has such a high risk of being caught and really isn’t gonna change the balance except make it worse

[44:48]

change the balance except make it worse for them I don’t see any situation in which Iran could have plausibly considered that this action would have helped them can you okay in the comments am I missing something huge somebody says putting bombs on tankers is nuts to know because the bombs and the tankers were so minor that they could they could and were you know almost ignored we did a cyber attack but you know there was nothing kinetic there so it seemed to me that when they did the threatening the shipping that felt like more negotiating didn’t it because they didn’t try to kill anybody they were just trying to they’re just trying to remind us that shipping is at risk right so it’s sort of like they reminded us somebody say has to do with Bolton and if Bolton’s gone they feel like they can do anything they want really do you think the Iranians are so unsophisticated that they think that that Bolton was the difference between

[45:51]

that Bolton was the difference between what’s gonna happen in Iran I don’t think so I doubt it and by the way if Bolton left and they thought there was less chance of war wouldn’t they be trying to negotiate instead because it feels like negotiating without Bolton would be a better play than doing anything with Bolton so here’s where I stand the official story is that Iran is behind it and probably behind it I don’t understand it do you because sure of having some motivation that can make any kind of sense and remember whatever you think of the Iranian leadership so far they’ve done things which can quite directly be tied to their self-interest yeah you can see what do they want what do they do okay doing that makes sense if this is what you want but this latest thing somebody says an oil price increase so it would make their own oil could that

[46:51]

it would make their own oil could that be the play but that would be a terrible play because again the odds of being detected are so high so how do we explain this even if I were to speculate like trying to get in the heads of their Iranian leadership are they thinking that they will simply cause enough trouble that everybody will back down and just let them have their way in the Middle East that’s not a thing right they couldn’t possibly think that could they they they would have to think that escalation is met with other escalation especially since you know there’s so many people calling for that at specific escalation were they trying to do it to get a result in Yemen and again the fact that the Iranians obviously would be the technical backing for even if the Houthis did something how does that help them because it would still be obvious that came from Iran so I don’t get that and how does and how does a partial

[47:52]

and how does and how does a partial attack on a sovereign country Saudi Arabia how does a partial attack ever make sense because I know when we do it we’re usually you know bombing some country that doesn’t have the the facility to fight back the Saudi Arabia is a lot of facility to fight back it just doesn’t make sense on any strategic military political negotiating level that I can understand so yet but you know that price increase in oil that’s such a temporary thing I don’t see that they would do something they would risk being eradicated you know risk total war on Iran I don’t think they would risk it for six months of higher oil price does that make sense somebody says they’re doing it to bring on Armageddon if you wanted to bring on Armageddon you would try harder right I mean blowing up half a oil refinery how hard is that even

[48:55]

a oil refinery how hard is that even trying they would try harder than that they have a lot more weapons if they were gonna empty the you know empty the magazines I’ll try to use the right gun terminology I know the pedantic here get all over me so they they would have emptied the magazine if they wanted to just get killed in the process because the oil refinery does not guarantee that they get destroyed in a an end war Armageddon situation but if they’ve done more they certainly could have made it happen and they could have done more somebody says it’s personal like a feud well here’s the thing that would suggest that Iran has for the first time just suddenly started being irrational in their international relations that would be a change and it would not be explained by anything could it be explained by the Ayatollah actually losing his faculties let me let me introduce let me introduce a new idea

[49:55]

me introduce let me introduce a new idea okay here here’s an idea that I believe is the only idea in terms of explaining the situation that can fit all the available facts are you ready the Ayatollah has been trying to skateboard on a railing ACEF got brain damage ordered some crazy stuff he’s the supreme leader they couldn’t stop him now of course that’s a semi joke but the real point is he is of a certain age can somebody tell us in the comments remind me how old he is open up another device and check that out out how old is how many and notice how well I pronounce that how many that’s because I just did my audiobook and I had I had how many his name in there and it took me 20 minutes working with my with my audio editor to figure out how to

[50:56]

audio editor to figure out how to pronounce that correctly alright so he’s around 80 so how many people at age 80 still have all of their faculties now if you’re in the United States you’ve got the 25th amendment and we have a process for a comfortable and elegant way to replace somebody who’s who’s lost their mental faculties how does that work in Iran if you’re the Iranian leader and you’ve started to lose it you know there’s some point at which anybody will be replaced you know there’s some amount of craziness where even your friends and relatives will say okay you’re going in the closet now you know we’re you know there’s nothing left of you we’re just gonna put you in the closet now but what happens in the first 25% of that journey let’s say you’re 80 years old and you’re starting to lose it you know you’re not all the way we’re even even your friends and allies are gonna say okay that’s too far we have to do something now what if he’s still in

[51:58]

do something now what if he’s still in complete power and he’s lost 25% of his brain processing power how unusual would that be if you’re 80 years old unfortunately not unusual so if I had to pick one explanation it goes like this Supreme Leader Khamenei is reaching a point of declining mental capability and this is the most visible signal of it it could be telling us that internally the Iranian leadership is having some tough decisions they need to make because imagine this even if you thought that how many was not let’s say obviously mentally defective you know let’s say you’d you’d had a meeting with him and you didn’t detect anything there was that different but then you walk out of the meeting and you find out by reading the international news that the guy you just had a meeting with probably just ordered a massive drone attack on a neighboring country which would almost

[53:00]

neighboring country which would almost guarantee that you personally are going to get killed you personally the person who just left the meeting because you’re also a high-level Iranian official or you wouldn’t be having meetings with the supreme leader and you’re kind of dead now if it if it turns out that this sparks a war of course the leadership would be in the most peril you know the soldiers would be bombed first but that would be just to get to the leadership and they would be kind of dead so if you were one of the leaders around the Ayatollah what would you think of presumably the leaders decision to launch this attack if that’s what happened what would you think of that would you think that was mentally capable some might but not all of them so here’s my guess my guess is that internal to the Iranian leadership to the degree that they also believe that Iran launched the attack maybe they

[54:01]

Iran launched the attack maybe they don’t believe it but I would imagine that they’re starting to believe it they should be having conversations about getting rid of the top guy and what that looks like so I would almost guarantee that there are serious conversations and RAM going on right now about a change in leadership and that’s and that’s my so that’s my best speculation is that this attack if it were if it’s proven Lance Iranian and we don’t see any other clear motive that it’s actually just a mental problem and that the Iranian people might actually need just need some help right because remember I say this often Iranian people are pretty awesome I mean everybody says that right as a country they produce great people highly educated you know well meaning many of them live in this

[55:04]

well meaning many of them live in this country I know tons of you know Iranian Iranian immigrants and you know second generation and they’re just awesome people so I would love a future in which the United States and Iran could freely travel and you know we’re getting along great and everything so I feel like we’re solidly on the side of the Iranian population and it turns out they’re pretty Pro pro-western themselves and they’re not big fans of their own leadership but as long as their leadership was at least mentally capable you know they could apparently they could put up with it or at least you know they’re willing to put up with it versus whatever the alternative is which could get ugly a revolution but now would they still be willing to put up with this because if you’re an Iranian citizen and you believe that your leadership just attacked a major oil facility in a neighboring country that is bristling

[56:05]

neighboring country that is bristling with American military technology and is and you’re surrounded by enemies who would just love to take you out and are just looking for a good excuse and you just gave it to them and you’re the Iranian people and you say who’s gonna pay for this by who who’s gonna pay for this mistake mostly the Iranian citizens this is a mistake by the Iranian leadership that puts at risk what half a million would you say if there were a full-out war with Iran would it kill half a million Iranian citizens who are trying to mind their own business probably I mean it would be in that that range right I mean somewhere between fifty thousand and half a million when you guess would be the the cost of war with Iran depending on how quickly we could get to their leadership so it feels like the war is on on so let me say that again it feels like

[57:06]

so let me say that again it feels like the war is on but here’s the twist the United States is on Iran side not Iran’s leadership side but on a ran side the United States is actually siding with the population of Iran because I think again it’s speculation that the citizens are just saying we did what how many times do you think the Iranian citizens once we’re paying attention to international affairs how many times do you think they were you know silently in their coffee shops or hookah bars or whatever they do their cafes and how many of them just read that news and they looked at each other and they said we just did what because they realize what just happened they realize that their leadership just took it too far and how would they explain it you’re sitting in the cafe are you saying ha ha I’m so glad we you know gave a black eye

[58:08]

I’m so glad we you know gave a black eye to our enemy Saudi Arabia do you think maybe I know could be but I think a lot of them are sitting there saying oh we cow there was yeah Ayatollah you had one job you had one job don’t start a war with the United States let me explain this more carefully to you supreme leader Khamenei this this is every Iranian citizen talking we we like that you’re working on you know keeping the country running and stuff like that those are all important jobs but those are mostly delegated right the supreme leader is not picking up the garbage that’s mostly delegated you know their local elections and stuff on that stuff he basically had one job Supreme Leader you had one job don’t start a war with the United States and you’re sitting in your cafe or wherever you you turn on your phone and you see the news that

[59:10]

your phone and you see the news that your supreme leader did the one and only thing he’s not supposed to do he had one job don’t start a war with the United States it looks like you might have just done it we don’t know how this will shake out all right that’s all I have to talk about today I hope that you have all pre-ordered my book loser think early early opinions are stellar people are liking it everybody is telling me it’s going to be a gigantic bestseller and I’m sure they’re right you can pre-order it just go to my Twitter feed or just just Google lose or think and go to your favorite bookseller and you can see if they’re available for immediate pre-order delivery in November 5th those asking it will there be an audiobook the answer is yes I have already recorded the audiobook and it will be available for pre-order as well thank you to those who have already pre-ordered I know you want to want me to talk about corn pop

[1:00:11]

want to want me to talk about corn pop but I just can’t get it just in that story maybe tomorrow I’ll take a look at it it and and I will talk to you later