Episode 650 Scott Adams: China, Hurricanes and More
Date: 2019-09-03 | Duration: 34:51
Topics
We keep discovering MASSIVE illegal Fentanyl shipments from China …and that represents a “precipitous decline” in shipments? Zhang, biggest Fentanyl dealer in China, is known? Hong Kong: 2 outcome predictions Outrage Theatre: Representative Swalwell’s tweet Michael Shellenberger Forbes article California embracing SAFE nuclear power options Scott Adams Gun control proposal
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## Transcript
[0:12]
hey everybody hey Jake come on in here Kevin good to see you Donna have a seat confetti 20/20 always a pleasure Todd Brian Duke Andy I see you all and you know why you're here and I know why you're here it's because you like the simultaneous it but it doesn't take much to do it all it takes us a couple more glasses type the chalice of tacular a thermos of plastic canteen the vessel run-run grab something put a liquid in it like coffee and if you're ready you can join me for the simultaneous up it gets your dopamine govern it's the part that makes your whole day better everything's better after the simultaneous sip go let me say this about the hurricane Dorian if if I say if you're a person who was hoping a hurricane Dorian would wipe out mar-a-lago because you think it would be
[1:14]
mar-a-lago because you think it would be awesome you're a bad person that's all that's all I'm going to say if you're disappointed that mar-a-lago did is not going to get destroyed by Dorian you're a bad person let me give you an update on the little China as you know China is the number one by far number one exporter of fentanyl to this country generally through Mexico now we have some competing information on this story you will decide what is true and what is not so a border patrol official testified that the flow of deadly fentanyl from China has dropped precipitously that's that was good right so the flow of deadly fentanyl in China has dropped a lot do you believe that
[2:16]
whoa what does that mean when we just got we just captured enough fentanyl from China in Virginia I think it was that would would be enough to kill 14 million people and what about the what was it 25 tons of fentanyl that we just caught off the coast of Mexico that was from China are we counting those two gigantic shipments that we caught as part of this precipitous decline in shipments I have some questions I don't believe it so here's something else so President Xi said he would do something to stop the fentanyl trade he said he would make it illegal make it a capital offense and apparently there's some activity along those lines so Lu Yujin a narcotics commissioner vice vice commissioner and
[3:16]
commissioner vice vice commissioner and narcotics Commission's vice commissioner so this is an official from China told reporters that in May China began regulating all fentanyl related drugs as class of controlled substances so I don't know if that's enough does it count that they change the law to take care of all the the analogues the things that are like fentanyl but just slightly different so they before they used to be legal because they were slightly different and now they're illegal is that enough and Lu Chinese officials noted the fentanyl deaths continue to rise despite increasingly strict controls on the Chinese side well is that true are there are there increasingly strict controls and and Lu said that no fentanyl smuggling cases have been discovered between the US and China since the new measures were implemented
[4:20]
since the new measures were implemented what
and as the article notes this was uncia nominally that like I said we're officials of Virginia just found a whole bunch of it that they they captured from China so it sounds as though it sounds as though China is pretending to do something but not doing something they're probably just shipping it through their third countries so in other words if they say oh yeah the shipments from from China to the United States or we're going to come they might be it might be way down but they're a way up if you count the stuff they shipped to Mexico that Mexico ships here but here's the canary in the coal mine you should ignore everything that's said on this topic until this one person I think his name is Jang is dead yeah Geum
[5:20]
think his name is Jang is dead yeah Geum Jang I don't know if I'm pronouncing right Zha ng is the biggest fentanyl dealer in China we know his name the United States has has named him as the guy and as far as I know he's still alive if he's still alive the biggest the biggest fentanyl dealer in China they're not doing anything I want to see a story a reliable story that says that that guy by name is dead you say he's been executed because if it's true that they've changed the laws to make it a capital offense and that's not clear it's not clear that they've changed it that much then that guy should be dead by now China works fast so I'm on record as saying that we are pushing on China meaning the United States the Trump administration and they should they are tying it to trade negotiations and they
[6:22]
tying it to trade negotiations and they should China is embarrassed enough that they're doing something about it or pretending to and they should but it's all meaningless it's all meaningless until that one guy is dead because until he's dead it's obvious they're not really doing anything it's obvious that it's just more China making promises they're not keeping speaking of promises they're not keeping let's talk about Hong Kong I have two predictions about Hong Kong number one China can't lose in the long run they might have to pull back they might pretend they're pulling back but remember it's a long game and China has all the power of the influence eventually they'll do whatever they need to do to get full control of Hong Kong I don't think there's any any chance that what would happen but here's the second part of the prediction they're gonna be
[7:22]
part of the prediction they're gonna be sorry they won if China had simply said okay Hong Kong you could do your thing over there we'll do our thing as long as it doesn't cause us any trouble we're all good if they had done that they could probably just keep ticking along like they always had and things would be fine but once they absorb Hong Kong and the Chinese people see this story and they see what it's done they will have weaponized however many what millions of people against their own country so Hong Kong is could we eat them from the inside I think that their system is in a lot of peril now because once they do get control of Hong Kong and they will might be in a year it might be in a day might be in 25 years but they will eventually they will they just have too much power to influence for that not to happen eventually but it's gonna take them out it's gonna change their system
[8:24]
them out it's gonna change their system they're gonna they're gonna choke down Hong Kong and it's gonna kill them over time because it's going to change the psychology and within the country in a way that you can't can't put that you can't put that back on the bottle all right
outrage theater of the day you know I'd like to show one outrage a day here's the outrage of the day from Eric's Wawa representatives wall well my representative he says in a tweet if Trump golfing stops hurricanes and mass shooting we'd never see either again but we've been racked by both this weekend so put the club's away and do your damn job you can't be golfing during a hurricane don't golf during a hurricane you're golfing and there's a hurricane I'm outraged but you're not of course you're not because what does wall well think President
[9:25]
what does wall well think President Trump was supposed to be doing instead of golfing because I'm pretty sure that he told FEMA to do it is going to do I'm pretty sure that the government has is all lined up to do whatever it needs to do what was what exactly was the president's supposed to be doing on the weekend waiting for the hurricane because I don't think he could have flapped his arms and made it go away so this fake outrage that somebody taking the weekend off no matter how often he doesn't I'm pretty sure taking the weekend off this is a good thing not a bad thing so there's that there's a report that is weirdly not on CNN or Fox News but I saw it in a lesser site they said after 18 years of war the US and the Taliban have agreed on some kind of a peace deal where we would remove I know some percentage of forces there do
[10:26]
know some percentage of forces there do you believe that do you believe that the Taliban and the United States have a peace deal and it might work well I don't know I mean I love to think it is going to happen but until the major sites are new sites are reporting this as a real thing I don't know I'm going to be skeptical on that but we're moving in the right direction there's an interesting thing happening with nuclear power California I just tweeted around an article by Michael and Sheldon Berger and it talks about how California might have to go nuclear or at least keep open some nuclear sites that might have otherwise closed because otherwise they just can't get to where they need to get it just isn't there's no other way to get there renewables won't do it and I was looking at the landscape now and apparently according to this article also a recent Gallup poll shows the support for nuclear energy is inching up in other words
[11:27]
energy is inching up in other words nuclear energy which has always been unpopular just sort of hit the bottom and it's inching up could it be could it be all of the persuasion that's happening on this because there are certainly a lot of people talking about it but here's the here's the the landscape I believe Bernie Sanders says no to nuclear I believe he says moratorium meaning don't build any new ones fact check me on that but i think bernie is anti nuclear power interestingly though aoc the most famous architect of the green New Deal is open to it she doesn't say yes and she doesn't say no and it's yet another example of why she's way smarter than most of her critics believe she is she is way smarter than you think she is because nuclear is scientifically
[12:27]
because nuclear is scientifically speaking kind of the only thing you could do if you're really concerned about climate change now it's not the only thing you can do but it's the only thing that's going to be big enough what and this can be scaled enough to make a difference so now you have yang who's openly and vocally in favor of nuclear energy you've got AOC who's vocally and publicly in favor of at least you know having the conversation and she says it now keep in mind there's no chance that a AOC would say she's open to the car about nuclear unless she already liked it right say you're open to the conversation is pacing hers her base she can't just say hey nuclear all the way but the fact that she says she's open to it tells me where that say 95% certainty that she's looked into it and she knows we need it so I'm gonna
[13:28]
and she knows we need it so I'm gonna say that AOC being on the side of nuclear even though she says she's only open to the conversation I believe that's a clear indication that she's she's leading her her followers you know what first by pacing them and say well we could have the conversation there's nothing wrong with talking yes sir so then people say well alright we'll talk about it maybe there's something new and there is something new which is it used to be a lot more dangerous than it is now that's new so between yang and AOC being on that side and also Biden Biden is pro-nuclear he's not making the biggest deal in the world about it but he's publicly and solidly pollutant pro-nuclear as part of the solution and of course the Trump administration is pro nuclear and the Energy Department is doing things to try to stimulate development of new plants so here's what I think just happened I think public
[14:31]
I think just happened I think public opinion just turned a corner because you know that it's hard to to pick out a turning point when you're in it usually it's it's more obvious you know if you're looking at the history if you look at the far history you can tell where all the points happen because you know you can just graph them but I think we just reached and I mean just as in 2019 a turning point where there's something like well there's a majority the Republicans are already prone OOP there and the most important voices or at least the ones considered the most the youngest scientific irrational voices auc and yang and even Biden are pro-nuclear so I feel as though we've turned a corner and there's something important is going to happen with nuclear and probably pretty soon
[15:31]
nuclear and probably pretty soon so there's that let's talk about gun control I've heard you said that you know the the United States is really two countries depending how you want to slice things it could be lots of different countries in one but the gun control since there are big swaths of the country where they're pro-gun there are parts of the country where they're more anti-gun and how do you have one set of policies that apply to everybody when some are pro and they probably would be better off with guns and some are anti it maybe they'd be worse off with guns so what do you do here's what I would do here's my proposal for a gun regulation are you ready I think the federal government should draw up a number of proposals that are complete so a number of proposals on gun control
[16:32]
a number of proposals on gun control that are complete proposals that the federal government then does nothing with so I'm not asking the federal government to pass any laws none zero laws I'm asking the federal government to create some standardized suggested laws for the states and what makes it more powerful is that they would be complete laws in other words smart people would look into it and they say all right background checks what's the smartest thing we can do with background checks maybe it includes doing something with the gun shows and having background checks there apparently then 90% of the country is in favor of that but what if there's a state that's not what if there's a state that doesn't want to do that why not give them the option why not have the federal government and come up with a set of standardized States state friendly regulations that can be
[17:32]
state friendly regulations that can be approved by any state or not approved by the state and then just see how it goes now I know what you're saying the motivated people will drive across the state border to do whatever they're going to do yeah but I think we would be able to pick up on that over time in other words we could interview criminals and mass killers and say where did you get your gun we can usually figure it out and we would find out if the only thing that happened is that nothing happened people just went across the state line and nothing changed that might happen but generally speaking whenever you introduce friction people do change behavior so I would expect anything with friction would change behavior so I would take the federal government out of the business of passing laws because they can't apparently our federal government is not capable of passing laws about guns
[18:33]
capable of passing laws about guns because the politics the NRA etc but they're certainly capable of putting together a set of standardized suggested to policies different states would adopt different ones of them and maybe tweak them a little bit but you'd have a standardized set of smart things to do and then you would be using your States as the laboratories of democracy as they were intended the states far more capable of passing laws would say all right we passed this one this other state on the other side of the country did not pass it let's see how we do let's see if this new law makes makes us have fewer problems over the next five years compared to the other states now if you do this you have a system which everybody can love yeah it's a system instead of a goal and of course there's no end to how much you could keep improving these little suggested changes
[19:33]
improving these little suggested changes but I think States should get every you know every up vote on a set of restrictions for themselves and other states may say we don't need it now here's another thing that I was looking at on gun control I didn't realize that almost half see half of people or half of gun owners I'm not sure but there's a lot of support for a mandatory buyback of all assault weapons when I say a lot of support something like half the country supports that now that's not nearly enough to make something happen and probably the majority of you on this periscope are saying good we don't want it to happen we don't want some irrational buyback of ar-15s just because they look scary so I get that
[20:35]
because they look scary so I get that but how about this what do you be would you be in favor of instead of a buyback just changing the laws about who can own one so I said I made some off the top of my head suggestions you of the day suppose you said you can get an ar-15 if you have experience in the military or law enforcement so you already have some credentials as a you know as a person who can handle a gun and maybe secondly if you are already a better gun owner for a while one more gun probably isn't going to make a difference because you already own a bunch of guns so maybe that's an exemption and maybe over 50 ya veterans etc maybe if you're over 50 maybe no restrictions because people over 50 don't tend to be big criminals but and suppose you're a woman if you're a woman who wants to buy a weapon I
[21:37]
a woman who wants to buy a weapon I would say that should be okay too because there's no history of women being big shooters somebody says oh my god Scott is totally drinking the kool-aid if you're saying that you not understand what I'm saying you should understand me to say that there a variety of things people suggested and there are a variety of states that could test it what I'm not suggesting is that everybody have their their guns taken away I'm very Pro Second Amendment and I do look at Hong Kong like the rest of you that the Hong Kong situation just couldn't happen here imagine imagine all those people who are marching in Hong Kong now you move that to the United States and and it's you know it's a life or death question for your Republic how many of those people would be armed to the teeth quite a few you would have a lot of weapons come out in this country if the if the Republic were actually at risk a lot of weapons
[22:38]
were actually at risk a lot of weapons would come in and it would make a difference it would absolutely make a difference so I'm pro-gun for all the same reasons most of you are but I don't I don't believe this slippery slope I don't believe that we just start going in some direction and we can't change anything almost everything that we do in this country in this dangerous has regulations it doesn't kill us I put my seatbelt on every day it doesn't make me unhappy you know I I have safety features in my car doesn't make me unhappy children can't buy cigarettes that doesn't make me unhappy we already have lots of regulations and they mostly work mostly so I don't mind them on guns if if you're a absolutist on guns because the Constitution I would say that's that's not really a supportable position to be an absolutist on guns it's not supportively the way it's not supportable to be absolutely in favor of no restrictions
[23:38]
no restrictions it is not supportable to have you know to have them all taken away all right so that's where I stand I think we should do a better job of slicing and dicing the public and let's just be honest it's men under the age of 50 we're doing all the gun violence so why should they be treated the same as everybody else let's let discriminate let's discriminate against young men who don't have training that are not part of the NRA don't already own guns haven't been in the military have not been in law enforcement so I would make lots of exceptions lots of exceptions but if you're just a loner who wants to buy your first cut minutes an ar-15 and you're not a member of the NRA you've not been in the military you've never been in law enforcement that's not good enough for me now we already have what 10 10 or 20 million AR type weapons in the country
[24:40]
million AR type weapons in the country I'm pretty sure we have enough already that if the government wanted to make a play you know we could pass them out we'd have all the guns we needed so I'm not too worried about that all right in fact if everybody is you know if the women all bought the guns they wouldn't necessarily have to do the fighting because if we had a revolution in this country you know the guys would end up with the guns whether the women were the ones that license up in the first place or not all right somebody made a great suggestion for my interface by a-1 Hub app listen to the suggestions so most of you know the the app my startup makes less you contact any kind of expert on any topic whatsoever but you have to be an expert and you can set your price for anything you want so right now there are I'm checking out how many people are
[25:41]
checking out how many people are hurricane Watchers I've got one two three four five so there are five people on the app right now on the interface by when a bap who are in Florida and you could call them and they could point the camera out the window and they could show you what the weather looks like as a hurricane is approaching probably not too fascinating at the moment because the hurricane installed but it's out there but here's a better idea that somebody had somebody suggested what if you have people just register on the app as either Democrats or Republicans and they make themselves available to debate just to debate they're not experts they're just a Democrat or they're just a Republican or whatever and they just say available to debate they don't even have to put a price on it you could do it for free say your price is zero because here's what I found out there are so many people who want to discuss politics but
[26:43]
people who want to discuss politics but can't write how many people do you know who want to discuss politics with somebody who's not a troll on Twitter and you just want to have an honest discussion with somebody who's completely on the other page when was the last time you've had that discussion I don't even remember I can't even remember the last time I had an honest political discussion with somebody who was completely on the other side literally I can't remember ever I mean I'm sure I've done it but I don't remember the last time it's because you end up talking to people who agree with you or because things are so some was so polarized you end up not having the conversation so if I if I happen to find myself you know alone in a room with somebody who agrees with me we'll have a conversation about politics but it's useless because we already agree if I'm in a room with somebody who's who's got a you know impeach Trump hat on I'm not
[27:45]
a you know impeach Trump hat on I'm not even gonna start the conversation right if you don't want an unpleasant situation but there are plenty of people in this country who would simply had liked to have an honest conversation with somebody who's completely on the other side somebody who will actually you know engage with you and enjoys being there and I thought that's actually a great idea for the app so if anybody wants to sign up as a an anti-trump ER or a pro Trump or a Democrat it could serve it and illiberal whatever you want to sign up with just say that you're there to debate see if anybody calls you up to debate I'd be surprised if people don't use that for that purpose because I often find myself wanting to know what a typical Democrat is thinking because you can't really tell online because everybody lies and trolls and you don't really know what you're getting online but if you're actually looking at a person on a video call about a little bit of cross
[28:50]
video call about a little bit of cross pollenization it's scary somebody says there should be a mediator no I don't think so because if somebody lists themselves as available to have the conversation they're already incentivized to be nice about it I mean I don't think trolls are gonna go on there and you know just be obnoxious
if you debated em what could they say except you were a racist well if they do say that that you say and I recommend this in my book loser think and I say it online a lot you should say can you give me your one strongest piece of evidence that the president is a racist and and before they do you say and can we agree that if your number one best reason isn't real that you would rethink the other ones because they might not be real either because usually they'll come
[29:53]
real either because usually they'll come up with whatever their top thing is and it's usually not real so I just say doxxing rules somebody's talking about doxxing rules and I don't North mess it out within the app you don't have to give your identity way or your contact information so you can have a conversation in the app well actually you should give away your identity your name but not your contact information you don't need to do that we do that behind the scenes so we connect you and but you don't know how to connect with each other unless you tell each other can you rate the experts yes you can you can rate the experts Ted Cruz said he'd be happy to talk with AOC she said yeah we can livestream so people can hear your BS did that really happen a or see in Ted Cruz talking about actually live-streaming a debate I would
[30:54]
actually live-streaming a debate I would love to see that I would love to see Ted Cruz and they ever see have a debate as long as there was no time limit they have taken it if they could just livestream that thing and just chat it up oh my god in fact they could do it here let me let me make a better idea they could pay-per-view that thing for charity a or C and Ted Cruz could have a live stream debate in which you have to pay something to watch it and and donate that to charity like let's say a veteran's charity or wherever makes sense or maybe helping how about donated to helping the families on the border how about that how about a pay-per-view debate between Ted Cruz and AOC and the the proceeds of that go to help families and children at the border or in a bad situation okay well could say well who
[31:56]
situation okay well could say well who could say no to that now here's the reason that I love this idea Ted Cruz whatever you think of him as presidential material he's one hell of a good debater have you ever seen him you know doing his Congressional stuff where he's interviewing somebody in public I think he's one of the top three Republicans who can do that sort of stuff he's really good at that hey is he also amazing at her you know her public communication skills now which of them has a better grasp of the facts I don't know because I'll bet they both had a pretty good grasp of the facts that are relevant to their side anyway so I can't think of something I would rather watch you could make it one topic or multiple topics I would prefer that they did it with let's say pick
[32:57]
that they did it with let's say pick three topics let's say immigration gun control climate change you know I think it's better if you if you you know limit it to something so that they don't just talk forever IOC would say no she's trying to stop a beds for children's Detention Center well whatever it is I'm sure that they need more money to make people's lives more comfortable at the border I'd be in favor of that let's do it and by the way I think Ted Cruz that AMC could be friends I think she could actually be friends now that those of you were anti AOC yeah I hear you I hear you what you're saying I'm just saying that you're wrong
Cruz is a vincent member upset truth I wouldn't I wouldn't be surprised he seems like he's convinced equality Joe
[34:04]
seems like he's convinced equality Joe Rogan is moderator yeah could be but you know what I think they wouldn't even need a moderator you could do it without a moderator so long as they both agreed to let the other one have some time to talk and I don't think they would go into it thinking that they were just gonna shout over the other one I mean I imagine that they would both be smart enough to know there's no point in doing it unless you're really gonna let the other one talk if there's no time limit you can let the other one talk make your notes address all their points when they're done I don't know that they need a moderator other than maybe an introduction I'd be happy to do it myself although Joe Rogan wouldn't be better all right that's all for now I'll talk to you later