Episode 629 Scott Adams: Epstein, Stock Markets and Trump, Deep Fakes, Simulation Proof, Hong Kong

Date: 2019-08-15 | Duration: 54:20

Topics

Always bet on human incompetence over a complex explanation Kamala Harris…politicizing an active ongoing police event If you can’t solve a problem any other way…”Trump it” Shake the box till the variables produce a potential solution Deep Fakes amazing video of Bill Hader’s face imperceptibly morphing China will NEVER approve a fair trade deal…for cultural reasons So how is a fair deal possible? Thomas Friedman says he’d prefer TPP over trade war Hong Kong situation and the likely outcome Stock market prediction filter for 2020 election results Will elite Democrats intentionally crash the stock market? Is “political selling” happening to intentionally drive it down? “Inverted Yield Curve” and recession fears…why? Bill Clinton portrait at Epstein’s…wearing a blue dress and red shoes?

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> [!note] Rough Transcript
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> This is an auto-generated transcript and may contain errors.

## Transcript

[0:13]

but um hey everybody I know my theme song gets better every time so one of the questions I know you here for the answer question is what is better than the simultaneous up the answer nothing nothing is better than the simultaneous it in the entire world oh sure you think the birth of your children your marriage you might think world peace I'm feeding the feeding the hungry stopping climate change you might think those are important things but I think they're overrated compared to the simultaneous it and all you need to participate to feel the amazing intense pleasure of the dopamine the end of the day to get your day off right is you need to cover a marker glasses Diana cellist actor to thermos a flask a canteen a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee enjoyed me now for the unparalleled pleasure the simultaneous eped that's right not a

[1:20]

the simultaneous eped that's right not a damn thing is better than the simultaneous it well let's talk about some stuff as many of you remember when Jeffrey Epstein's death was announced 99.9% of the world said he was murdered murdered I say people got in there and they murdered him right in front of our noses and I alone on planet Earth as is my is what I'm I'm used to now alone on planet Earth I said you know not so fast sure everybody on earth wasn't dead but you if you have a hypothesis that says incompetence could have been an explanation well I go with the odds and so my prediction was as we learn more and more about the Epstein death that we would not find additional evidence they he had been murdered but that we were to find

[2:22]

murdered but that we were to find additional evidence that it was a suicide now the latest news was he had broken neck bones now he he was found hung in his in a Cell and of course the the first the first article I read makes it sound like well broken neck bones and then it starts out by saying that is consistent with being strangled and it is it is also consistent with hanging yourself apparently there are two ways that typically you'll see this sort of thing which is one is suicide and the other is somebody kills you so you have evidence that's compatible with both do you remember the so-called shrieking so when it was reported that it was heard there was some shrieking around the time of the death I said could the shrieking be coming from a man because when a man

[3:22]

coming from a man because when a man shrieks what word do you use to describe it if you hear a man let's say making a loud verbal noise in distress what's the first word you think of scream I heard a man screaming right would you say shriek now now suppose you heard a loud verbal sound coming out of eight an adult woman's mouth if you ordered at a let's say a very troubled large loud noise coming from the mouth of a woman in the distance and she was very troubled would you call that a scream what you might but you might call that as you know a screech
it was revealed today that one of the guards one of the two guards that were

[4:24]

guards one of the two guards that were asleep was a woman so my theory that it was suicide said that the the shrieking was probably one of the guards and that we find that one of the guards was a woman I don't know what percentage of total guards are women it might be pretty high now maybe it's higher than I think it is but that was my hypothesis was that a woman was one of the first ones to find him and realize there her life was gonna have some trouble not only did she have to deal with a you know a dead guy that was on her watch but her life is not going to be the same because this so we don't know everything about this but um but we do know that so far a hundred percent of what we've heard is consistent with suicide and it is now being reported as a you know presumed suicide so I don't believe anybody in an

[5:25]

so I don't believe anybody in an official capacity is calling it anything else am i right is there anybody in an official capacity who is expressly leaving open the murder hypothesis of course they have to look into it and they have to get all the details but have you heard anybody official who actually knows something say well we haven't ruled out murder I don't believe well Rudi's really is a political animal somebody said Rudy Giuliani but he's a political person all right here's more evidence of the simulation here's a true story from the headlines Andy Dick was a dick who grabbed a guy by the deck allegedly and therefore that guy came back and punched him in the face so the guy who punched Andy Dick in the face and looks like he injured him pretty badly which is no joking matter

[6:27]

pretty badly which is no joking matter claims that it was provoked although not at the mom rather moments before he claims that he had said goodbye to Andy Dick you know thanks ed good show or something and the Andy Dick had weak to him and grabbed his crotch and then I guess he thought about it for a moment and then come came back and punched him now I have who knows if that's true for salt but let's say it's true what exactly is the legal treatment for that how long do you have to wait or how soon after being sexually assaulted can you punch somebody in the face and almost kill them before it becomes illegal I don't know the answer that do you if somebody it you know if you're in public and somebody grabs you by your genitals in public could you legally immediately punch them as hard as you can in the face and kill them and

[7:30]

as you can in the face and kill them and actually kill them let's say there were witnesses so there's no doubt about what happened somebody came up to you and grabbed you by your junk and and you knew that they were doing it for sexual purposes because Andy Dick was bisexual I believe could you punch them as hard as you want and actually kill them and get off as now I just happened in the moment it was just a reaction I don't know I think so suppose you walk away for 10 seconds because you're you know just sort of disoriented for a moment and after the guys let go ten seconds later you walk up and punch him and kill him how long what is the waiting period at which point it becomes a crime I don't know so I guess the legal system will sort that out and if he was actually grabbed by his crotch I'm sure there were witnesses so we'll probably find

[8:30]

were witnesses so we'll probably find that out all right Carla Harris is getting a lot of pushback for court politicizing the latest shooting and police action in Philadelphia I don't like to talk about the shootings so that that's not what I'm gonna do here I'm just gonna talk about that the politicizing of it alright so apparently while the event was going on qumola was on TV the word politicizing sort of a general word but I assume that she was using the event as a sort of a launch point to talk about you know gun crime and why she should be president what do you think about that what do you think of Kamala Harris quote politicizing an event while it's happening and people are still in harm's way what do you think about that I'll look at your comments while they're going by I'll tell you what I think about it while you're commenting I'm 100% good with it not only am i okay

[9:31]

100% good with it not only am i okay with it I approve of it so I'm not even neutral I approve and I know you're gonna hate me for it right I approve if she does it I prove if President Trump does it I prove if anybody does it so long as the thing that they're promoting is is something that legitimate people could think would be a solution now I get your disgust and I would agree with your disgust you know she were standing on the same block as the as the event so you have you have sort of a visceral reaction to it which is Lulu and I can't talk you out of a visceral reaction so if you just have like a human reaction of Lulu I completely get that but there's no reason for it all right it's not a reason based reaction it's just a Lou now should we make decisions based on your feeling of no probably not

[10:35]

your feeling of no probably not that's probably not the best way to make a decision here's my point if you want to get something done on a topic of great national importance that is totally roadblocked do you believe that anything is going to happen with guns I don't don't you think there's just a complete in a bill need to do anything about guns yeah what what would you do with a problem that could be solved in the normal polite ways and the normal routines that you use to solve problems well if you do something gross in an environment where something normal would work just fine I think you have to answer to that you know why are you being gross why are you being in why being so inconsiderate of the victims like why why are you being so icky and look when there's death happening right now why are you doing that now if there were some other

[11:35]

that now if there were some other alternative to solve this what she perceives as much of the country perceives as a major gun problem if there was some other normal way to do it I'd say well you should be doing it the normal way why are you being a jerk you don't have to be a jerk just use the normal process use the Congress get some votes do that sort of thing but the one thing we know for sure is that that won't work we know that we don't have in this country any kind of a process there's no process we don't have a Congress that can pass a new law we don't have anybody saying hey let's test it small and see how it goes now hold on it's irrelevant that you say there's no gun problem do you get do you get that you could be right or you could be wrong but do you get that so relevant to the conversation what's relevant is the people involved have a genuine a genuine belief even if they're wrong a genuine belief that it's a big problem and a

[12:36]

belief that it's a big problem and a genuine belief that they have some solutions under those conditions that person is operating ethically and morally as I'm going to explain a little bit more even if they're wrong about the facts so don't argue the facts that's not the topic right now we're talking about whether somebody is a key for politicizing the shooting so here's my take on it if you can't solve a problem any other way trumpet trumpet meaning play like Trump would what would Trump do if he wanted to solve the gun problem because I don't think he does honestly it's just I I I think on some level if he could you know wave a magic wand something would happen and people wouldn't shoot any people people wouldn't shoot each other anymore he'd do that so he wants his salt in the magic way clearly but there's no evidence that this president is really you know moving

[13:36]

this president is really you know moving toward any kind of aggressive solution if you were what would it look like what would it look like if President Trump wanted to solve the gun violence problem in this country I'll tell you what it would look like he would grab that box and he would shake it he would just shake the heck out of it and see what because the old the old box full of variables was getting us nowhere and would get us nowhere so you got to shake the box and thence he was left okay shut the box now how are the variables lined up no still no shake it again still no shake it again it's a good process because if the thing if the variable use the variables you have don't work you got to change the variables so Kabul Harris comes in during the most politicizing sensitive moment and she comes in like a like a bulldozer and politicizes the freaking thing good if

[14:36]

politicizes the freaking thing good if now here the assumption is that she genuinely believes that a solution needs to happen and that we can't get there with our normal process under those conditions and I think those are reasonable assumptions I do think most Democrats believe there's a real problem that with some real better government we could make some progress I think they really believe that and I don't I don't disagree with it at all so I am 100% backing of Kamala Harris politicizing a shooting in progress you know why because that's why we're talking about her do you know what the other cowards we're doing waiting everybody else who's running against her for president looks like an idiot now to me I know not to you to you they look more awesome because they they didn't you know they didn't politicize it I get that but only one person shook the box that needed to

[15:37]

one person shook the box that needed to be shook she said I'm gonna go in there while it's while they're shootings in progress screw this I don't have to be polite anymore I don't need to make you feel good I don't need to make the other side feel good all you people who are disgusted by it don't care I'm not gonna make you feel good anymore I'm not gonna I'm gonna not gonna let people get gunned down in America because you can feel better that way just not going to do it so calmly Harris comes in here shakes the box and says look at me I just shook your damn box can we do something now all right now will anything positive come of it probably not probably not because the gun thing is just so hard to to fix probably it has to get a lot worse before anything's gonna get better but I I'm a hundred percent supportive of her politicizing the heck out of it so long as it's honest and it looks like

[16:39]

so long as it's honest and it looks like it is shake the box calmly all right have y'all seen Lee the disturbing / entertaining video of comedian Bill Hader doing imitations of Tom Cruise on I guess an old video of Letterman interview yeah while he's talking his face morphs into Tom Cruise and then when he talks like himself it goes back and then there's another video where he does the same thing with Arnold Schwarzenegger talking on another show and he morphs into Arnold Schwarzenegger's face while he's doing an impression and then when the impression ends he goes back to his own face and it is so seamless that you can't even see the technology happening you you're just blinking your eyes and you're going what's happening what wait oh that's Tom Cruise let's be later it is so freaky to see how seamlessly it happens you can't detect the technology happening

[17:39]

can't detect the technology happening he's just one person and then he's another person and that tells you everything you need to know about what the next 10 years looks like that's what we can do today right now we can do that you know we meaning people who can do that could do that I can't do it you can't do it but people can do it and so I ask you this suppose you wanted to build an AI that was very human-like suppose you took me and created a deep fake of me specifically me because of this next fact I have more public opinions on more topics than perhaps anybody in the world I don't know if that's true but let's put that out there and you can argue with me on it but you'll agree that I'm among the most public opinionated people who ever lived public opinion everybody has opinions but I'm unique in that for 30 years I've

[18:42]

but I'm unique in that for 30 years I've been saying things in public interviews and the Dilbert cartoon and blog posts and videos and books and saidar you could find you could probably find opinions for me and just about every topic now imagine you're building an AI and the AI is going to be a reproduction of me and deep fake of me and you're going to have a conversation with it and the deep fake really just deals with keywords it's such a it's the it's the simplest AI in the world it just sort of operates on keywords so you come up to the deep fake Scott you say it's got blah blah blah you know there's a big gun problem today on the news did you see it and my AI hears gun problem news and so is starts saying the things that I always say about guns and the news and it runs through something like what I just talked about with politicizing it maybe it says something about you know

[19:42]

maybe it says something about you know trying it you know a be testing it in states maybe it says something about Congress can't get there but there's a whole bunch of a pain that I would just start talking about now would you be able to distinguish what my deep fake did which is just recognizing you keywords and then I just give my opinions would you know I wasn't real because if you came up to me in real life and said blah blah blah did you see the on the news what would I say I'd probably say you know yes or no I saw it but then I would give my opinion on the topic and it would look exactly like my AI now you might not be able to interrupt it and you know as quickly interact with it as a real person but almost immediately if my AI just started saying what it felt based on keywords from any topic it would be about 80% alive at least in the way you you perceive it the last 20% is hard but

[20:44]

you perceive it the last 20% is hard but you would be 80% there with nothing but keywords and Google searches of things I've said before think about it so that's how close we are to artificial reality how many people have you ever had a conversation with in which the answers that you got from them did not seem to be human in other words no matter what you say the thing they say doesn't seem to be related to what you said let me give you an example every time I talk to a Democrat about the fine people hoax and I take them down what I call the hoax funnel you would expect that a live human being like a real person an organic human if you if they said I have this belief X and you said oh you are mistaken here's the transcript here's the video you can look for yourself it's very it's very compact you can see this sentence that absolutely says the opposite of what you

[21:45]

absolutely says the opposite of what you believe to be true okay human being now that you've seen evidence that is absolutely incontrovertible you can look at it you can verify it and it's the opposite of what you believed you'll change your mind now right no nobody not one person do you think organic human-beings see information that counters their opinion and then changed their mind never and so if you are trying to build an AI that represented people how would you build the AI to deal with new information that proves their old opinion was wrong what would be the proper way to program that if you programmed it to change its mind I would instantly know it was a robot if I went to somebody who was a Democrat someday in the future when we can't tell androids from from real people and I said hey you know the thing you've been

[22:45]

said hey you know the thing you've been saying about the fine people thing didn't happen it's it's reported wrong here's the transcript and let's say this creature looked at the transcript and said I have been wrong all along it seems that my information was inaccurate I changed my opinion now completely to now agree with you and i disavow everything that I said five minutes ago you'd know you were talking to a robot it would be instant you'd be like robot robot so how long will we have to go before we realize the central truth of human beings we can't program artificial intelligence because there's no real intelligence you can't make a photocopy of it nothing if you photocopy on nothing something that doesn't exist do you know how many pictures of unicorns we have zero the reason you can't take a picture of a

[23:45]

reason you can't take a picture of a unicorn is they don't exist how many how many pictures of the Loch Ness monster that are actually real pictures do we have none I guess that's a bad example because we have some fake pictures but if you try to build an artificial intelligence it's not going to look like a human sorry someday by the way I'm pretty sure that nobody else in the world is publicly released as often as what I'm saying that you can't build artificial intelligence because there's an illusion involved and the illusion is that the humans are intelligent you know once you lose that illusion you could build artificial intelligence like that someday somebody's going to build an AI based on that truth that people are not rational and when you talk to it you're gonna say holy hell I think I'm talking to my coworker because I it's like talking to

[24:47]

coworker because I it's like talking to a wall and you say to yourself oh talking to a wall does that sound like a human being yes yes that's exactly what talking to a human being sounds like talking to somebody who can't hear you can't reason and can't change their mind that's what it feels like all right too much of that Thomas Friedman well-known Democrat no lover of the president no lover of Republicans in general interestingly says that the getting tough with China which Trump has done was the right move now Friedman suggests that the trade war and the tariffs are not the right way to deal with it but that we had to we had to put our foot down in other words we could no longer keep going the way we were going with our current trade deals so even the Friedman says no you couldn't do that you just couldn't continue with those lopsided deals

[25:48]

continue with those lopsided deals that's a big deal it's a big deal and you see I think even Bernie has agreed with the President on that but Friedman says that he would prefer the TPP over the trade wars with China and that's the opposite of what the president did and so I look at that and I say huh let's let's talk to a human being and I want to make sure I'm not talking to any androids or any artificial intelligence so let's talk to a human being so I'll go up to a human being and we'll say hey Thomas Friedman thinks TPP would have been a better deal than tariffs what do you think human being what were the human se
what's a trade deal Wow you remind me what a tariff is China or we do trading with China okay I wasn't aware of that but okay and TPP is some kind of toilet paper thing what is the TPP or some kind of trade

[26:49]

what is the TPP or some kind of trade deal with what's different between TPP and making a deal with China I don't know what any of those things are weird a quote Family Guy I don't know about any of that how can how can the average human being look at this statement of have an opinion here's the statement TPP might have been a better way to go instead of tariffs with China what I don't know maybe do you think Thomas Friedman knows enough about either TPP or tariffs with China you see an economist I don't know maybe is well I got yeah I look at that and I say to myself this might be the smartest thing anybody ever said or the dumbest thing I can't even judge if it's the smartest thing anybody ever said or the dumbest thing anybody ever said now Friedman is pretty smart so I'm gonna lean toward there something

[27:50]

so I'm gonna lean toward there something there but I don't know what I can't judge it can you so to Thomas Friedman I say first the compliment smart guy does good work writes good books secondly you've overestimated the understanding of the public severely we don't know what TPP is we barely know what a tariff is and we certainly don't know how it's all going to play out nobody knows even what the old trade deals were to know exactly what it is that we want to do differently here's my prediction you ready we will never have a comprehensive trade deal with China I believe that we will simply evolve away from it because there's it appears that their their business model if you will is power and not compromise it's sort of an American thing to even offer a deal that's fair

[28:54]

thing to even offer a deal that's fair to both sides it's a very American thing
somebody says goalposts moving if you're referring to me I did believe that we would get a China trade deal that was before I understood that they didn't want one the minimum requirement for having a deal is that both sides want a deal but what we're learning is that China doesn't want a deal they want the same thing that they had which is a an unbalanced a deal so the only thing they want is the one thing we're not going to give them at least under the Trump administration so you don't have two sides trying to find a deal that's good for both sides and as long as that's not happening well I wouldn't expect I wouldn't expect a deal if you don't have two sides trying to make a deal apparently we just have two sides pretending to talk but but China doesn't want any kind of a deal that would be

[29:54]

want any kind of a deal that would be anything like fair so I don't see that changing and so therefore my my prediction has changed so my prediction has changed too I don't think we're ever going to have a comprehensive trade deal with China I think we'll just tariffs and adjust over time well here's here's a economic rule that's one of the the best most useful rules of economics you'll ever hear here's a sort of thing that only people you know deal with economics and spend some time studying it would know it's very simple to know and it explains a lot of stuff like you could be the smartest person in the room if you only know this one thing you ready here's the one thing markets adjust whatever the rules are or whatever the situation is you can either change the situation or you can just wait because the market will simply adjust

[30:55]

adjust whatever if you change the tax law the market will be discombobulated for a little while but if you check back in ten years the market adjusted the market adjusts to anything you know you just about anything the market adjusts over time so if we were to say okay it looks like we can never have a deal with China the market would have discombobulation in the short term where everybody said oh my hair is on fire you know what do we do we don't know where things are going what will what will become with us and then you'll check back in ten years and you'll find that Central America is just bristling with new companies that move from China to be closer to the markets it took care of the immigration problem by absorbing labor in Central America and we no longer have a dispute with China because we just tariff them they tariff us it all works out in the long run so remember that rule markets

[31:57]

long run so remember that rule markets can adjust to just about anything except except maybe socialism I suppose since somebody was saying so as long as you have freedom and capitalism and money can move across borders and ideas can move and people have you know freedom of expression freedom to try things freedom to try startups as long as a lot of things can be tried and fail and still as long as a few things work you're moving forward as long as we have the economy that looks the way we look markets adjust so I say no no deal with China let's talk about Hong Kong because that comes into the same topic here's my prediction on Hong Kong are you ready China wins China wins so whatever it is that China wants and if Hong Kong I think they want to impose their legal system in Hong Kong must keep their semi-autonomous legal system there isn't any other way this can go

[32:58]

any other way this can go so imagining that there are two potential outcomes no no it really aren't two potential outcomes there is one potential outcome in the long run big China gets what it wants because Hong Kong remember I may have some of my history wrong so I'm just just spitballing here but originally Great Britain owned Hong Kong and there was I think a 99 year lease because even Great Britain knew that although they had a claim to Hong Kong they couldn't hold it because it's right there in China you know sort of China adjacent so there was no way in the long in the long run there was no way that the Great Britain could keep it so they it's a British protectorate somebody say that might be the better way to to describe it
it in the long run Great Britain knew that they couldn't keep control of something that's literally sitting right in on

[34:01]

that's literally sitting right in on China's doorstep and claimed by China just wasn't gonna happen and it's the same situation now in the short run China might say well you know we might have to as the things are getting violence and we might have to back off for a little while but in the long run China's gonna get everything they want in Hong Kong the residents of Hong Kong probably just need to get used to the fact that the Chinese government will be able to accuse them of crimes extradite them to China proper and do anything they want with them just like every other citizen in China so I'm pretty sure that that's the way Hong Kong is gonna go if you see the opposite happening if you see China saying all right all right you people in Hong Kong can have your autonomy we back down what would that do to everybody else in China River Chinese got a lot of different

[35:02]

River Chinese got a lot of different groups and it's just this gigantic sprawling place if they allow any part of their Kingdom to successfully rebel that's a problem because it makes everybody else say hey Hong Kong look at well god so China doesn't have an option of losing in the long run on Hong Kong so I say that this I'm sorry for Hong Kong but you are gonna become China I don't see any other way that goes all right Trump tweeted on this topic he says I know President Xi of China very well he is a great leader who very much has the respect of his people so this is one of the things that Trump does well so he starts with respecting President Xi which is probably the right play every time so he starts with respect and then he can get a little critical he is also

[36:04]

he can get a little critical he is also a good man in a tough business in quotes so he's acknowledging that she has a tough job running running a big sprawling enterprise there and then Trump says I have zero doubt that if President Xi wants to quickly and humanely solved the Hong Kong problem he can do it personal meeting so Trump seems to be offering to be part of this process now what Trump says I agree completely he says he has no doubt that if President Xi wanted to quickly and humanely solve it he cried well of course but do you know our President Xi is unlikely to want to quickly and solve it in a humane way he doesn't want that what he wants far more than that is to exert control over Hong Kong so sure President Xi could solve this humanely no doubt about that why would he I don't think it's even good for him in fact if

[37:06]

think it's even good for him in fact if I were an adviser I hate to say this but if I were a personal advisor to President Xi would I tell him to take a president take a meeting with President Trump and then changed my mind and solve things in Hong Kong it's like the worst idea ever because it would make she look weak and it would set the precedent that rebellion works it sometimes doesn't want that so whatever is going to happen in the long run China will prevail Hong Kong because what else could happen alright people are talking about the stock market and how that's going to affect to Trump's reelection so everything you know gets filtered through the 2020 election at this point until then and so the big question is if the stock market takes a reversal will Trump lose his support and especially if if the Democrats can blame him for the the China part of it and and

[38:06]

him for the the China part of it and and therefore blame him for whatever minor recession happens here's my guess I think the market is going to be pretty darn choppy and it makes you wonder what the so-called you know elite masters of the world are going to do because if you are a Democrat money person wouldn't you want all the Democrats sort of collectively to sell their stocks right now because if the smart Democrats got out that was a pretty good play if the money people who are democrats said all right wait wait until about this far before the election you don't want to be you know too late you don't want to be too soon and just sell the crap and in the market because you'd be selling at a high the market will go down because people will follow you because it looks like it's going down so the panic selling will start and then no matter who gets elected if Trump gets elected the market will go back up if if the

[39:09]

the market will go back up if if the alternative gets elected whoever it is the market will go back up there are two possibilities no matter who gets elected in 2020 market is going to go up like so that's my prediction no matter who gets elected the markets going up assuming that the selling was political and I believe the selling was political that is there there are enough Democrats who hope for a recession that they're going to make it happen because you don't need everybody to agree there's going to be a recession what percentage do you need 20% of the grunts would that be enough if 20% of Democrats suddenly and coordinated Lee even if they don't coordinate with each other but just short of mentally they all know it's time if 20% of Democrats sold their stocks at a high number one good play because I don't think we're going to see the high that we recently had for a while at least not until

[40:10]

had for a while at least not until election if they sold it for the high and they're gonna wait to buy a back on Election Day smart play very smart play smart enough that I wish I had done it if if I could have sold all of my stocks a month ago or whenever it was at a nice eye and not bought them back until you know Election Day before we even know what the result is I would have done that I would have sold every stock and I would have waited into Election Day because I think Democrats are going to artificially depress the market because they want it to go down so badly and things sort of go in the direction you want them to go right yes if if you've got tens of millions of Democrats who are investors who are willing and actually prefer a short-term pull back in the market just so they can get their political preference they're gonna act

[41:11]

political preference they're gonna act in ways that make that happen and then the panic sellers will follow them because they'll say oh no it's a depression sell sell sell now what you should see if if it's political selling here's what you should see you ready if you see the market get killed between now and 2020 and stay low at the same time that profits are good and unemployment is good you saw you saw a political manipulation if the market goes down and then for its own reasons unemployment turns bad and profits turned bad well they don't say okay the market is anticipating the other change in the market and that's just like normal but if you see a disconnect till you see your first stories of saying wait a minute the markets down but all the things that normally drive markets are looking good now that yield curve people are saying hey look at the

[42:12]

curve people are saying hey look at the bond market that's signaling those stocks are going to go down and the economy's going down maybe maybe it is but maybe that's just the indication that people are getting out of stocks for political purposes because if you're moving your money out of stocks it's gonna go into bonds and if it goes into the right kind of bonds the price of the bond you know is bid up which lowers the yield which makes the yield curve invert aren't you glad I have a degree in economics to explain these things to you so that the signal that you read about that you don't really understand most of you are not into economics and when you read something in the news like hey the yield curve if it is inverted that's a sign that you know stocks will the economy will go bad how many of you even know what that means how many of you watching this periscope knows what the hell that means that there's a yield curve and version nobody right you know

[43:14]

curve and version nobody right you know 1% of you but what it means is people move their money from stocks into bonds and and because of supply and demand it changes the nature of the bonds so when you see the nature of the bonds price and interest rates move in like that and moving in a certain direction it indicates bad things but all it really indicates is people moved money in a bonds that's all it indicated I'm sorry move money out of stocks and into bonds certain certain classes of bonds that could be just political manipulation maybe not coordinated perhaps it could just be lots of people thinking in the same way it's like yeah no you know maybe it's risky that's another reason to sell my stocks now but I'd certainly like to see that stock market go down so here's what I would do if I were a trump supporter you might do what I did I sold a lot of stocks last week I don't

[44:18]

I sold a lot of stocks last week I don't wanna brag but I got out early now I didn't sell my own portfolio but there was a certain certain targeted number of stocks that I wasn't crazy about keeping anyway normally I would have sold those holdings and moves them into something you know probably just a probably just a unmanaged fund but instead I moved it into cash and I might not put it in the stock market until closer to the election so I'm gonna wait to see if there's any way to tell there's a bottom to this thing but I I sold some serious stocks and I'm glad I did all right let me let me say again I said I haven't said it yet this periscope I am NOT a financial adviser do not take your financial advice from me I can tell you what I've done but absolutely you should never ever ever ever ever take take

[45:21]

never ever ever ever ever take take advice from cartoonists on Finance this is not a finance recommendation all right
did you see Steve King representative Steve King got in trouble again
the latest thing he said there's some weird quote taken out of context if there hadn't been rape and incest there wouldn't be many of us here and I'm thinking well I think I understand the context that there were a lot of those things in the past I don't know what you know the the clip is taken out of context so you'd have to sort of guess what he was talking about but I gotta say talk about something that would be hard to defend yeah I don't know how he's gonna defend that one good luck on that if somebody says he's right like that matters doesn't matter if he had a mathematically accurate statement

[46:22]

mathematically accurate statement probably not I'm a point he was making but the fact that he said it at all is it's pretty shocking all right what good is cash holding loser thinking I didn't say I'm gonna hold it in cash I did not say that I'm holding cash all right somebody said what is offensive about that statement though well nothing nothing there's nothing offensive about it it just makes it look like people shake their heads and say it sounds like crazy talk but I think that has to do with the fact that was taken in a context if we saw it in context I doubt it would say that sound the same but the fact that he said those words out loud he sort of walked himself into a into a trap I also yeah I'm not gonna tell you I was gonna say something else but I wouldn't want you

[47:23]

something else but I wouldn't want you to be influenced by it you should test your persuasion and worldview by predicting stock markets well predicting stock markets is sort of a fool's game except for the very big long-term moves so I would take the Warren Buffett approach which is long-term holding holding US equities is a really good deal but apparently even Warren Buffett just sitting on a gigantic pile of cash so I think he thinks businesses are too expensive at the moment could the Epstein guards have been drugged somebody asks yes in the anything's possible world but as I was explaining yesterday you know my own experience as a overnight security guard is that falling asleep is the norm I probably

[48:25]

falling asleep is the norm I probably had at least a little bit of a nap every single time I work that job and I would be amazed if prison guards don't catch a nap
nap when they're working overnight and 12-hour shifts absolutely no stimulation and although the inmates are just literally just sleeping in their beds I got a feeling that taking a nap under those conditions is closer to normal here's what here's what I don't expect you'll ever learn you will not learn that the two security guards who slept during Epstein's death you will not learn that it's the first time they ever took a nap at work I don't know if they'll ever admit how many naps they took but it's probably closer to every time than it is closer to rare that's that's my guess is that it's more likely they took at least a little bit of a nap every night it was probably one of the benefits of the job I guarantee that at

[49:30]

benefits of the job I guarantee that at least some of those guards thought you know this is the best job in the world I can just take a nap falsify my timecard and blah blah blah oh yeah so we've got the story of the allegedly there's a portrait of painting at Geoffrey Epstein's one of his homes which one New York or the island I forget in which there was a door open and the painting was spotted of allegedly Bill Clinton at least this is what the grainy photograph looks like Bill Clinton in a blue dress and heels what's that all about now my first guess if I had to if I had to guess what's going on there probably it was a gift and probably it was a gift he didn't want that much because it didn't look like it was hanging on a wall right it looked like it was just in a room propped up against on the floor and the door was open and somebody saw it so something tells me that it was a gift and since he had

[50:34]

that it was a gift and since he had pretty weird friends you'd have to know what the you'd have to know what the the person who gave the gift was thinking to have any opinion on it so who knows what that means I don't know if it's a the straights what Epstein was thinking or if it just demonstrates what the gift-giver was thinking and once he got it it was like well what am I going to do with this he can't throw it away yeah I can't throw it away can't put it on the wall what are we gonna do this maybe it was just for a joke now somebody said that the blue dress is actually the same blue dress the Hillary Hillary wore for something so it's actually Hillary's dress it just happens to be blue and the red shoes I don't know what the red shoes mean others are saying it's Lewinsky but it doesn't seem to be it doesn't seem to be the same style dressed as Lewinsky was wearing so do your own math on them all right who

[51:39]

your own math on them all right who knows what that's all about I think we'll learn more and more about all this I think it's amazing that the assistant to Epstein Maxwell I can't pronounce her first name we don't know where she is how hard would it be to hide in 2019 if you were a modern person in the modern world see it feels like it would be impossible to hide for long because there's got to be something that gives you away I mean imagine if you will that law enforcement gets gets let's say a court approval to wiretap all of the people that she's known to know and then they just pick up every conversation Guylaine yes that's her first name they pick up every conversation of the people who were even then the wide circle of people she's likely to ever call and then they put a vice recognition thing on there and they just record all the conversations the people she might

[52:40]

conversations the people she might remotely want to contact ever and then they just search for her voice and when her voice pops up they tracked the call boom somebody said she was found they found her in New England I don't believe so
there's there's reports of finding her but there's no confirmation there I I understood there was some home they thought she was in but that's not been determined no technology if you're hiding yes it is entirely true that she might simply be avoiding all technology and she might not be speaking into any kind of a phone etc but remember all she'd have to do is walk past a digital assistance you know I'm pretty sure the government can turn on your phone and listen to see if she's there

[53:40]

listen to see if she's there right can't can't the government and activate my phone and listen to this conversation right now if they want to if they want to I think they can I don't know if they use that kind of technology for ordinary crime-solving but I think they can somebody says there you could have voice-altering technology yeah you could do you think she has that I don't know you could I just don't think she has that all right we'll see if she can run forever this will be a second part of the story that's fun to watch but that's all I got for today and I will talk to you tomorrow