Episode 628 Scott Adams: Stock Predictions, Don Lemon, Ken Cuccinelli, Epstein, Bernie vs Fake News

Date: 2019-08-14 | Duration: 1:02:56

Topics

“LoserThink” example1: Obama stock market better than Trump’s “LoserThink” example2: Climate science w/o economics background Flawless high-ground maneuver by Ken Cuccinelli Erin Burnett’s hostile interview vs Ken’s high-ground demeanor You may NEVER see it performed better…must watch LA Times article questions President Trump’s empathy Chris Cillizza says NO bias or content dictated by WaPo That’s a dodge…do you know why? Life Rule: If 30% of a group will be offended…don’t be a dick Andie Dick severely attacked, lost consciousness, hospitalized Brain damage is forever, it changes people forever BOTH guards fell asleep for hours, then faked the logs? HOAXERS attempt to shift “Fine People” HOAX to something else “LoserThink” example 3: Quin Hillyer article in Washington Examiner
THE BATTLE IN PORTLAND: A scheduled Antifa sporting event A televised sporting event in the making Competing stock market indicators China culture requires an unfair deal…or no deal What if we encourage companies… …Leave China, move to South America? Chris Cuomo’s aggressive WORD reaction, and the fact nothing escalated

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> [!note] Rough Transcript
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> This is an auto-generated transcript and may contain errors.

## Transcript

[0:09]

um hey everybody come on in here it's time for coffee with Scott Adams I'm Scott Adams and if you'd like to enjoy the best part of the day the part that gives you that little dopamine push that you need to get through the rest of the day you came to the right place it doesn't require much on your part well what do you need I'll tell you what you need you need a cup or a mug or glasses time the chalice tankard a thermos flask a canteen a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me now for the simultaneous sip oh it's gonna be a good one here it comes oh yes what a day alright let's talk about all the things that are happening because if you read the news or you follow social media you would realize that things are happening they're not terribly important things

[1:11]

they're not terribly important things seems like news just sort of stopped lately but that's the summer August phenomenon have you ever noticed that when the the people who report the news go on vacation because you know government and the press they go on vacation and in August have you noticed that the new stops why does the news stop there's got to be some news happening but it's all sort of low-grade easy to report kind of stuff free to press release talk about it that sort of thing all right I tweeted a that interview between the erin burnett on CNN and ken cuccinelli who I believe is the acting US Citizenship and Immigration Services Director and the reason I tweeted it is not so much for political interest but for skill you have to watch ken cuccinelli

[2:21]

handling hostile questions sorry you've never seen it done better and I that might be true it's possible you've never seen it better now I'll make an exception for president Trump president Trump does it better in the way the only president Trump can do but if you're not president Trump and you're trying to be the best you can be among less a normal human beings right so Trump is still a level above in terms of what he can do with the press and and the public but for the next level down for someone who's not actually named Trump wow just wow you have to watch how well he handles the difficult questions now I'll just call out a few things you know I'm not gonna I'm not gonna say he's a master persuader per se because I'm not sure he had I don't know if he did or did not exhibit persuasion skill but his his public interview skill second to none Wow let me tell you a few things he

[3:24]

none Wow let me tell you a few things he did right the biggest thing he did right is he maintained what I would consider a high ground demeanor a high ground demeanor what normally happens if you're the subject of hostile questions is that you you react to the questioner so the questioner says hi I'm attacking you I'm attacking you what's the most natural way to respond when you're attacked retreat or attack right those are the two normal ways you respond which one which one of those did he do and neither that's what man is special he didn't defend in other words he didn't take a he of course defended his point of view but he didn't take a defensive demeanor nor did he take an offensive demeanor he didn't do either one he took the high ground

[4:26]

he took the high ground and you'll never see it done better but if you watch his body language the tone of his voice the the precision with which he just sort of sliced and diced her points he started off a little bit finding his bearings because you know he didn't know where the questions were coming from what was going to happen the moment he realized what the field looked like he ran the table I think was just really fun to watch so I wish I could give it a better telling but you just have to watch it but the thing to look for is his demeanor he took a demeanor without saying it in words that made him the teacher to her the student so look for that look for him taking a demeanor in which he's simply explaining it to someone who is not as informed without being arrogant without being defensive without being offensive he simply took a higher plane and then lived there and she had to she had to figure out how to

[5:28]

she had to she had to figure out how to respond to that and looked a little flustered it was it it was really fun to watch and skill wise just to pick up some skills all right there's an article in the LA Times there wonders if Trump possesses the correct neurological makeup for empathy and they're wondering if he has something called mirror neurons which I imagine would be the distinction between a psychopath and a real person okay all right the first question I'd ask is how much does it matter this is the sort of question you might ask when somebody is say running for the nomination it's the sort of question you might still ask if that same person got the nomination and was running for president you know everything's fair and that would be fair in terms of you know all the crazy things that people ask it's it's in the

[6:28]

things that people ask it's it's in the list it'll be fair but is it still a sensible question after three years of Trump administration it is what it is we see where priorities are and they don't seem to change so I'm not sure it makes that much difference but we do see him consistently be pro-american profet he's even helped with prison reform he helped with ASAP rocky so you could argue with me all day long about what he feels internally and what his neurons are doing you could tell me all day long that the president's neurons are doing the wrong thing as long as he's getting Americans out of jail in foreign countries he's working on the economy he's you know negotiating trade deals and cetera don't really care so it's three years of don't really care all right hilariously Bernie Sanders is

[7:30]

right hilariously Bernie Sanders is attacking the Washington Post and and he threw in the New York Times as entities that do not cover him in the way that he would like to be covered in other words he doesn't call them fake news but he's saying that their coverage is let's say corporate determined as opposed to just talking about the facts because he thinks he'd get a better a better shake if they were more objective sounds like somebody we know yeah sounds familiar doesn't it now it's there's no there's no accident that people who like Trump are more likely to like Bernie at least personally you know not his policies but are more likely to like him as a as a candidate as a as a real person say what you will say about Bernie he's definitely his own person he's an original and B seems I would say genuine meaning that it looks like he believes

[8:31]

meaning that it looks like he believes what he says and you know he's doing he's doing his Bernie best now whether you like or don't like it it's interesting to know he's on the same side of a Trump in attacking the media now Chris sylia a commentator for commentator or opinion I guess for CNN weighed in on this and said it's inappropriate essentially and Chris said that he worked for The Washington Post for several years under the Bezos ownership and he can tell us personally that Bezos and indeed I guess management in general never told them what to write in terms of had a slant things he said it didn't happen to him didn't happen to anybody it isn't a thing management at the Washington Post that does not tell you what to write do you believe that do you do you believe

[9:34]

you believe that do you do you believe that management of the New York Times and let's say the Washington or Washington Post those two publications so sylia was talking specifically about the Washington Post but I think you could generalize this do you think that management tells them what to write or at least tells them what bias to to show okay I've worked for a big company and I would say that Chris aleeah's claim almost certainly true is that what you expected Chris cilia's claimed then management and Jeff Bezos has never not once told the staff what to write or how to spin it he says it hasn't happened I rate that as true not just a little bit true I rate that 100% true based on everything I know about everything right remember I I kind of work in the newspaper business you know because my

[10:36]

newspaper business you know because my comic strips um I'm in that world all the time and interviewed a million times no I know dozens and dozens of people in that business so I know it pretty well I would say that is a hundred percent true I do not think there's ever been a conversation with any writer reporter and which management said you know I think you should shade this a little more against Bernie or a little more against Trump now is that important no it's a complete Dodge now I don't know if Chris cilia knows this so I mean I can't read his mind so I don't know if he knows it's a Dodge but it ends up that way here's how the real world works people know what their boss wants people know what fits him people know what's gonna get them promoted people know what kind of articles get put on the front page don't think if you work for the Washington Post do you think you would know what kind of article to write to

[11:38]

know what kind of article to write to get it on the front page do you think you know what kind of articles are right so that your editor won't edit it heavily of course you do if if you were smart enough to know that you wouldn't be smart enough to write articles that are worthy of the Washington Post and The New York Times say what you will about their editorial bias if you could write for the Washington Post or the New York Times whatever else anybody else wants to say about you you can write like you know how to write those are the best you know the best writers in the world are writing for those publications including Chris açelya so his writing skills tremendous great writer you can disagree with his opinions but his writing skill excellent so those people are very smart and they don't have to be told what to do to fit it and they're probably also hired because maybe

[12:39]

probably also hired because maybe they're leaning in a certain direction you know when people hire you they get a sense of what you've written before so they know what you're likely to write again so nobody has to have a conversation about what to write that's just completely unnecessary you and let's say two people write articles neither of them we're told what to write all right let's say it's the Washington Post or the New York Times two articles one of them is say pro-trump one of them is anti-trump and then separate people who also have not been told what to do or how to do it decide it goes in the front page and what goes to the top left of the website what gets probably to play what gets edited down to a shorter version what stays large what gets the photographed what doesn't get a photograph a lot of decisions happen after the writing and and those two are not necessarily going to be treated the same so it's a second chance for somebody else who also has not been

[13:42]

for somebody else who also has not been told what to do but they know where they work they know what gets the clicks they know who their audiences they know who their boss is they know what a what a bonus looks like so nothing has to be explained all right
CNN's got a piece that's interesting but is a perfect example of what I call loser thing which I'll explain in a moment and what they've done is they're comparing the stock market performance by president so they're saying for the first X days of each presidency how did the stock market do and they've determined that Obama's stock market went up a higher percentage sharply higher percentage then Trump's has so far which has also been good and so the conclusion from the CNN graph is that Trump is doing better than I guess Bush but way worse than Obama and not not too

[14:47]

but way worse than Obama and not not too bad compared to Clinton I guess similar so is that is that a good analysis let's say all the numbers are correct let's say they got all the numbers correct is that a good analysis here's the problem and here's the theory behind my upcoming book it'll be out in November called loser think and the base of the the background idea is that people who don't have experience across multiple domains are at a disadvantage and that they will be they'll have blind spots for things which are obvious to someone who spent time in let's say the field of law to someone who spent time in the field of let's say art if you haven't had any experience er someone who's had experience in economics someone who's experienced in business each of these experiences gives you a different filter on life and my take is that the more of those filters you can combine into your your your maximum

[15:48]

combine into your your your maximum filter the more likely you are to escape what I call loser thing so loser thing doesn't mean you're done doesn't mean you're ignorant in the classic sense loser thing means you haven't been exposed to a domain of thought and it happens to be the one you need for this problem perfect example do you think that the people who made this graph for CNN and the editors who decided to put it were aware of the following economic truth you ready I have a degree in economics I've got an MBA worked in business for a long time specifically had the job of making charts and graphs and financial projections so unlike perhaps the editors to see you then I don't know for sure because I don't know where they are but there's a blind spot in this graph and it's gigantic and it's one that everybody who studied economics and finance and business can see immediately yeah somebody in the conference is

[16:51]

yeah somebody in the conference is already all over it now you're saying it differently you're talking about qe1 what I was going to say is that you should expect in all cases this is just a general truth that if your economy is at the the bottom of the barrel the percentage of increase that you're likely to have in the you know during the first parts of recovery we're gonna be really high why because that's the easy part if you recover it all which takes some skill and by the way I do credit Obama with skillfully stopping the economy from going further down adding some confidence to the system stabilizing it so that it could do its thing to grow back up here's the thing the percentages increases you get in the beginning of a recovery should be high that's how it works because you've got companies that are already built you've got factories already built they just have to make more stuff because the economy is improving you got people who

[17:51]

economy is improving you got people who are fully trained ready to go back to work so they do you know you're ready to go from the bottom of the economic hole but when you get closer to the top which is where Trump was getting any kind of percentage game is really really hard these two are not comparable you can't compare coming off the bottom with trying to top off the top which is what Trump is doing much harder and I would argue it takes a different skill set I've said this before Obama for all you might dislike about his policies in general because he was a stable kind of serious you know non whimsical kind of a personality he felt like a dependable you know pair of shoes that you needed to give some confidence the system many ports and money into it etc so he did he made the right moves but he was also the right personality imagine President Trump be

[18:54]

personality imagine President Trump be in the Obamas job would you want somebody as let's say unpredictable as Trump when things are already scary maybe not maybe not but when you start getting you know toward the top of how well an economy can do how about that that is exactly when you want a president Trump because he's he's the one you know putting the putting the gas on the fire he's the one who can goose anything Trump can bring energy to anything you could bring energy to a nuclear bomb he could say well let's make it a little more energetic so the two presidents have completely different skill sets but in my opinion they were both well suited for their time and their the occasion so does seeing them know that anybody who had any experience with finance and economics would recognize that they're

[19:56]

economics would recognize that they're comparing the stock performances again different presidents would be complete nonsense do they know that well maybe some of them do obviously the people covering the economic part of Si and then know that cold right so for sure everybody was a pundit in CNN who has a background in economics and finance knows that that's just basic but if you had a degree in journalism would that be obvious to you would it if you didn't know that what i just described you about coming off the bottom versus trying to top off a good economy if you didn't know that you're not stupid right it's just a it's just a field that you haven't had an experience and you're not ignorant in you know some kind of classic way where you know you didn't read enough books or something no it's just a field of study that you did not spend time in there's nothing wrong with you all right you're completely healthy

[20:56]

you all right you're completely healthy and you're a good person but you haven't had experience in the field so that's what loser think is about it's not being dumb it's not being ignorant it's about blind spots because you didn't spend enough time in a field all right similarly the the economic models around climate change when I look at the economic models around climate change I'm pretty sure I say what's something like a hundred percent of people who studied economics and done economic models and made economic forecasts say this is a big claim but I'm gonna stick by it my big claim is anybody who has an economics degree finance degree would spend time in that world projecting economic things in the future every one of them thinks that the economic projections about that you know what bad things will commander of climate change are ridiculous guesses all of them now I'm not talking about

[21:58]

all of them now I'm not talking about the science part the science part that says the temperature will go up by this amount I have no visibility into that world I see claims I can count the number of people who say it but I can't I don't know if it's true or false I'm inclined to go with the majority of scientists because I'm always inclined to do that but I can't say it's true and it doesn't matter if it's true or not if they are saying the economic impact is as low as they're saying this the the official climate change economic forecast is something like a 10% the it to GDP over 70 years which would literally be not noticeable that's the official number but here's the thing can you depend on that no seven-year economic forecast nonsense anybody who's anybody who has experience with economics will say well that's just that's just crazy nonsense that's nothing you should use to make decisions

[23:01]

nothing you should use to make decisions all right let's talk about here's an icky story I'm going to say right off hand before I even get into the topic this has low credibility right yeah it's the Don Lemon story so there's some accusations against CNN host Don Lemon which I know makes you enjoy it because you know you see him as the enemy etc and he was accused of some me to kind of a thing with some gentleman in the Hamptons who has filed a civil suit now what kind of credibility should you put on that claim well I might be the only one who tells you this about once a week but accusations of this type in a political political environment where people are being targeted to be taken out you know people on both sides being

[24:01]

you know people on both sides being targeted I would put the credibility of this below average lower credibility than most stories and most stories are not on 2% credible if I had to put a guess on this I know 1020 percent likely to be true there's never been a better case of innocent until proven guilty I would love to make you know unlike the rest of you and I'll enjoy a good case of schadenfreude you know with the rest of you you know feeling something bad happened to people that have a better than knowing you wow I don't feel it on this way so I hate to be the defender of Don Lemon for this audience because I know I know we have something Don Lemon haters in the group here but I'm gonna defend them innocent until proven guilty period innocent until proven guilty period

[25:03]

innocent until proven guilty period that's all I'm gonna say about it and if you if you don't embrace that standard you know remember what you said about Cavanaugh remember what you said about President Trump accusations just remember what you said about everybody else let's let's keep that standard I I don't want yeah let's keep that standard speaking that let's get back to Chris Cuomo you all know the story Chris Cuomo was approached by a gentleman in public who called him Fredo who is reference to the less competent son in The Godfather but others say it's a racial ethnic slur I saw a video with Joe Piscopo who I believe is quite a Republican who said that in his opinion it is also an ethnic slur now I think it does matter who's being

[26:03]

now I think it does matter who's being called Fredo because I guess this is this insula has been used against people who are not don't have any Italian heritage so when it's used against someone who doesn't have any Italian heritage then I guess you can say it's not an ethnic slur but people who are Italian are telling us that they they receive it as a racial slur so who's right if it can be used against if it can be used as a word a general word about anybody and most people agree that it has been used you know with people were who are not Italian is it then fair to say well it's not enough like slur because we use in all different cases now it doesn't work that way it doesn't work that way because take articulate you can say that a white candidate is articulate but it is I'll say generally agreed not 100% but widely agreed that if you were to

[27:04]

but widely agreed that if you were to say a black candidate was articulate it would be considered a racial ethnic slur so it does depend who you're talking to you can't just look at the word and say hey this words in the dictionary I'm gonna use all the words in the dictionary and freedom freedom of speech I'll use all the words in the dictionary well you can do that it's a free country but here's my rule which I'm not going to suggest you adopt but I'll just defend it my rule is this don't be a dick that's that's pretty much my rule don't be a dick if there's if there's a word there's some ethnic group 30% of the people in that ethnic group say my god you've insulted me with that word if 30% say it's an insult and 70% say yeah now it's just a word I say why would you unnecessarily insult 30% of an ethnic group don't be a dick say it's the same

[28:06]

group don't be a dick say it's the same argument with the statues I understand I saw a poll there's something like 44 percent of african-american citizens
favor Confederate statues even even though they understand the you know the bad history of it they favor the freedom of speech the the art of it the remembering your history the the cultural continued it can continuity stuff like that so so there's certainly lots of black folks who like keeping Confederate statues even if they you know of course don't love the memory of that stuff but would like to keep it alive now but there still lots of people of color who say yeah I get that there are other people who are not offended but I'm really offended and and this is beyond the pale for me let's say half of the people let's say half of the people of color be they black or be

[29:08]

the people of color be they black or be there anything else were offended by the statues to me that's a good enough reason to get rid of them or you know deal with them somehow maybe you don't destroy them maybe you put them in a put them in a museum or maybe you put up a plaque to inform people that you're not praising the person in the statue but rather it's a historical thing whatever so my role is just don't be a dick treats you know they're it's okay to treat people in public the way you'd want to be treated I wouldn't want people to just be a dick to me so I try not to be speaking of dicks Andy Dick comedian was attacked and severely punched I think I think it was a fist and he was I guess he was unconscious for 15 minutes and when you know straight down after a concrete sidewalk and was hospitalized at cetera now I once met Andy Dick I was on a TV show

[30:09]

once met Andy Dick I was on a TV show called news radio and indeed dick played a character on the show I was just a guest the guest actor because the topic of the show was about the Andy Dick character on this TV show fell in love with Dilbert comic strips and that was sort of a theme of the show so that as the creator of Dilbert they invited me on to have a little party so I met Andy Dick which is just some interesting background for he was nice to me so I understand he's he's got a I background which other people had some complaints with and maybe they're good complaints but here's my point this is I saw the video of the attacker and the attacker was not provoked he walked up and without any warning punched Andy Dick as hard as he could or he might something whose hand I couldn't tell from the video and an auntie dick went down if he was unconscious for 15

[31:10]

down if he was unconscious for 15 minutes as reported and hit his head on the concrete as reported he has brain damage how much I don't know and nobody will ever know but the odds the Andy dick is the same person today that he was before he was punch is actually low his personality probably will change he might have headaches forever he might he might have lost his you know depending on what part of the head he fell on and what part of the brain was affected he can have permanent brain damage uh what I'm gonna say is that it should be the death penalty so I'm in favor of the death penalty for anyone who does an unprovoked attack on somebody's head that's you know severe enough that they they have you know gashes and cuts and unconsciousness and concussions and stuff like that I think consciously giving somebody a

[32:10]

I think consciously giving somebody a concussion or attacking their head should be the death penalty because you've killed whoever Andy dick used to be there will still be an Andy Dick you'll still have a social security number or he'll you know he'll be able to walk around in public but that guy killed him in all likelihood now even if Andy Dick says you know I don't feel like a different seems the same that's what people say when they have brain damage they don't always feel like they're different but if you've ever seen somebody before and after a severe head injury as I had the misfortune to experience with my late stepson they can become very different people so that's my thing Andy Dick if they find your attacker I think they probably will you know it's a world of cameras they probably found they'll find this guy
guy I wish the law allowed the death sentence because I would be in favor in

[33:11]

sentence because I would be in favor in this case same with auntie Fong so new the newest information on Epstein is that the guards did not make the checks that they were supposed to make and they may have falsified the logs and unnamed sources New York Times is reporting that unnamed officials say that the guards fell asleep at some point and did not check up on him for up to three hours so now we have the incompetence theory versus the elaborate plot to kill Epstein which ones looking better you remember the early on when everybody was buzzing with conspiracy theories what was the first thing they told you I told you the odds are incompetence because the odds are always incompetence if the other if the other theory is elaborate you know deep state

[34:11]

theory is elaborate you know deep state clever plan the elites found a way to get to him whatever if that's the alternative well it could happen I'm not gonna say it couldn't happen I'm just saying if you're comparing it to a security guard fell asleep one of them is really really likely the other one not so likely let me give you some background I have worked as a security guard have any of you worked as a security guard in which for long periods of time you are the only one awake Debra had that job where where you had to stay awake all night and you were the only one awake and maybe you can't play with your phone I don't know if I don't know if prison guards can play with their phone do they have anything to keep them awake or anything really to do except walking back and forth in the hallway that doesn't really change much let me

[35:12]

that doesn't really change much let me ask you this how many times do you think I fell asleep during my job as an overnight security guard at a at a hotel resort quite a few times
the number of times I fell asleep as an overnight security guard quite a few times yeah quite a few times so would you say to me what are the odds that a professional security guard and it's been reported that they're understaffed so they they've worked you know 12-hour shifts and stuff if somebody is that exhausted and there's nobody watching and everybody else who's even could be awake is behind bars do you think you might fall asleep for a few hours I would be surprised if that's not the normal situation I'll betcha overnight security guards falling asleep is so

[36:13]

security guards falling asleep is so common yeah you just don't hear about it because everybody else is asleep let me ask you this how many times did I get caught by my bosses literally sleeping on the job like actually being just flat-out asleep in my workplace how many times did I get caught well as a security guard zero because everybody was asleep how many times did I get caught literally sleeping in my cubicle in corporate America zero how many times did I actually take a nap in my cubicle well I've learned to nap while sitting straight up I could balance my neck just right and I can just close my eyes with my my face facing the computer but you know the doorway to my cubicle was behind me a lot I had a lot of really good naps in the workplace so how common

[37:15]

good naps in the workplace so how common is it for people to fall asleep when there are security guards pretty pretty common all right so there's an article in The Washington Examiner which is trying to attack the people who are at they find people hoaxes so you know Steve Cortez Joe Pollak and I have been tirelessly hammering away at that hoax the hoax that says that the president called neo-nazis and racists fine people now because the hoax is now sewed about debunked I mean it really is debunk you see the hoaxers trying to shift and morph the argument into a different argument that can still be right so the central argument was who was

[38:15]

so the central argument was who was Trump referring to and the transcript is crystal-clear he stated his assumptions I'm not talking about the the racists I'm paraphrasing here but he said it clearly I'm not talking about the racists I'm saying that I believe there were people there and were just you know good people on both sides of the statue question that was my assumption and they would be fine people now he stated his assumption so even if he was wrong on the details and by the way nobody really looked into the details nobody really knows who was there exactly some people have talked to some people but we don't really know exactly who was there and so so instead of looking at his assumption and saying okay well he meant to say this and he wasn't talking about the racist he was clear about that worst-case scenario he had inaccurate information about the crowd is that a crime well given that the other people who have inaccurate information about the crowd would include the entire press

[39:18]

crowd would include the entire press almond a hundred percent of the reporting press doesn't know who was there that day nobody did an interview no but nobody did a poll they were dressed alike you know the people with the tiki torches I think had something in common with their look but there were lots of other people who were just dressed in street clothes weren't necessarily carrying signs which side were they on were they racist it's just Americans in a big place how can you possibly tell what they were thinking or what side they were on there is sort of milling around etc so the weasels in this case Quinn Hillier was a writer tries to convince us that because the president may have been inaccurate about the composition of the crowd that therefore he really was supporting white supremacists that doesn't make any sense at all if he was

[40:19]

doesn't make any sense at all if he was incorrect about the composition of the crowd that means he is just like the press that we don't know who was there that's all it means but it doesn't mean he was calling neo-nazis fine people because he said I'm not talking about the white nationalist and neo-nazis they should be condemned totally there's no ambiguity in that statement and he said it yeah as part of the statement about the you find people on both sides now there are other people were trying to conflate comments I think there were day before in which he had said there are bad people on both sides meaning anti file in this case and the and the tiki torch guys now the the critics of the president are trying to turn that into hey he's making a moral equivalent between racists and people protesting racists no he's making a moral equivalent between an Tifa and the neo-nazis do I agree with that yep

[41:22]

neo-nazis do I agree with that yep both of them are a hundred percent bad because anti-fur supports violence against American citizens am I wrong they do support violence against American citizens who have not otherwise committed a crime neo-nazis are neo-nazis so you don't have to wonder if you know they're bad people they're bad people let me say it clearly so in my opinion once you reach the point of completely bad your moral equivalent if if your argument is that one of them is you know 10 percent batter or 40 percent batter you got some explaining to do because both of them we have reached 100% you know disavowal bad moral behavior you know you if somebody murders three people can you say whoa-ho this person who murdered three people in cold blood

[42:25]

three people in cold blood don't compare him to this person who killed ten you can't compare somebody who killed three to somebody who killed 10 of course you can't they have exactly the same moral standing zero they're both zeros how about somebody who committed only a rape compared to somebody who murdered is the rape not so bad do you say because nobody died no they're both zero on the moral scale completely condemnable period how about the guy who punched Andy Dick Andy Dick says a lot of things that people think deserve some punchin he's not a good guy I don't think even he he would even say he was and he wasn't killed probably given brain damage what's the moral statement of the the guy who did the punching is he not as bad as murder yes he is he's exactly as bad as a murderer

[43:25]

he is he's exactly as bad as a murderer on the moral scale now in the legal scale we make distinctions but on the moral scale there's no frickin difference between the guy who punched Andy Dick and neo-nazis there's no difference no difference between them and rapists murderers terrorists and there's no frickin difference between any of them and anti-fog because anti-fur favors attacking citizens who did not break the law in this country completely commendable anyway so people like Quinn Hillier who wrote for Washington Examiner trying to say that because the President may have been wrong on the details of who was there therefore blah blah something bad about him now here's the thing when I read this article I said to myself having just written the book loser thing I said to myself what's wrong with Quinn Hillier is this person intentionally just trying to fool dumb

[44:26]

intentionally just trying to fool dumb people or does Quinn Hillier believe that this is a valid comparison and that that the analysis has been done in a let's say a rational logical way because I'm looking at it and I thought well it's obvious he's just confused because Trump's statement came with an assumption of what he was talking about that's the end of the story he said he said who he was talking about and then he described him and everybody would agree with it if he was wrong on the facts that's just a different story and that would put him in the same category as the New York Times and everybody else was wrong on the facts so I googled Quinn Hillier to find out if Quinn Hillier had a background in any of the analytical fields I said to myself would a trained engineer make this kind of logical error would a trained economist

[45:28]

logical error would a trained economist be so poorly qualified to look at this complicated situation how about a mathematician how about anybody in a technical field how about a lawyer do you think Quinn Hillier has a law degree so I wondered to myself is he'll you're suffering from loser thing meaning they're just fields of study that I don't know if it's a he or she quittin can go either way but is it this is somebody who has experience in the fields where they would be capable of looking at a semi complicated situation and sorting out what mattered from what didn't and I believe if I've got the right person that Quinn Hillier graduated from the Isidore Newman School in 1982 before matriculating at Georgetown University good school all right so so far that's good right good school means probably some more person

[46:30]

school means probably some more person graduating graduating with a B in government and theology in 1986 so this person's background is in government and theology do you think that a person with government and theology background is capable of examining a complicated situation and picking out the elements which are the important ones from the ones that are just sort of got confused together in their head
there's no way to read minds and we don't know what at what other experience Quinn has so we cannot answer the question is this mess of bad thinking in this article isn't intentional because Quinn thinks you'll believe it or is it just someone who is suffering from loser think again not an insult it is not an insult to say somebody's experiencing loser thing because it's a universal thing you know there's there are domains in which

[47:30]

know there's there are domains in which we all don't have experience and in that domain you might have a blind spot okay but that looks like let's going on I noticed that Portland can somebody fact-check this for me can you fact check whether Portland is gearing up for another battle between anti-shah and the right wing I saw a passing reference to that on the internet then I lost it but is it true that Portland somebody say yes Portland is wrapping up now what do you what was your impression all right so you're hearing it maybe for the first time from me want to you to assume what do you feel what's your first impression when you hear that Portland is gearing up for a battle in the streets between the antifa and some of them far-right organizations unnamed here's what I say yeah excellent

[48:36]

if there's anything that I could enjoy more than watching two groups I hated beat each other senseless with sticks I don't know what that would be if you said Scott quick name two organizations you'd like to be seed beaten with sticks in public and say well neo-nazis you know they're not very nice and how about auntie Fong well as luck would have it it's the battle in Portland it's it's being set up exactly like a sporting event it's not a sporting event you say well let me describe a sporting event a sporting event would be a scheduled event and a certain playing field so far so far they've scheduled it it's a is in a field which is the street but they know where they're gonna be or it might be a park I don't know there are two teams check-check two teams they wear a

[49:36]

check-check two teams they wear a uniforms check-check antiphon has their uniforms they the people on the right probably will have some identifiable kind of uniform going on and there's their their rules are they're not rules there are rules there you know there's the law and then there are the sort of the rules of social behavior and there's an understanding that some of them are going to start hitting each other those are the rules and we know that they're referees the referees of the police the referees are going to allow a little bit of nonsense to happen because they probably are incapable of stopping every little bad behavior so the referees are gonna let them play sort of like a basketball referee let's let's the players get a little more physical during the playoffs you know there's still a little there's fouling but they're not going to call

[50:37]

fouling but they're not going to call everyone because they want to they want the audience to get a good show so somebody says LARPers versus LARPers exactly but the degree to which this is gearing up as a televised sporting event that's pretty insane so here's my level of empathy for all the people who are gonna get the crap beat out of them even Portland don't care is it because I lack the mirror-neuron necessary for empathy no it's because it's two groups that are voluntarily going somewhere to have a fight and they want to be in a fight there's nobody going to this who doesn't want to be in a fight I mean really if you didn't want to be in a fight you would not go to Portland on that day so they want to have a fight I'm not the one who's gonna stop him but I guess the

[51:39]

one who's gonna stop him but I guess the police will alright so I guess we've got two competing stock market indicators one says everything's gonna fall apart the other thing the other says everything's fine one is the spread between the US two year and 10-year yields on bonds now for those of you who are not you you're not economics majors or finance people the basic idea here is that people are moving money out of stocks and bonds and as people buy bonds it changes the yield and people are saying hey it looks like there's a flow from the stock market into these other investments and that's and then one article said that it has predicted accurately a recession every time there's better recessions so for 50 years is been accurate every time in predicting an economic pullback but this

[52:41]

predicting an economic pullback but this is the way all these economic indicators work there's always one that works that's pointing in the other direction that's never been wrong - so one of one of these two things is going to be wrong this time and the other one is that the joblessness rate is great when was the last time we had a major economic dislocation when when there was full employment so those two things were sort of opposites one one is sort of a technical indicator with the you know the bond yield and hurting you don't need to know the details of that but the other one is everybody's got a job who wants one and you know not everybody but in an economic sense we've reached something like full employment because you always want a little bit of unemployment so so there's some flexibility going on so you probably want my predictions or maybe you don't but I'm gonna give you my economic

[53:42]

but I'm gonna give you my economic wisdom you ready here is my economic wisdom will there be a pullback in the stock market yes because there always is there's always a pullback in the market maybe this month maybe next year maybe in two years but will the stock market have a serious pullback yeah always it always does will that be the beginning of the end and the entire country will go to hell well that's never happened before every time we have a pullback good you know we consolidate and then we go in the other direction so will we have a pullback yes will we be okay in the long run yes that's what you need to know what about this China situation apparently that's part of what's spooking the markets here's what's missing and I'm wondering where where are the people talking about

[54:45]

where where are the people talking about this our so we've got this deal with you know the trade deal with China it looks like China for possibly cultural reasons is not willing to make a fair deal which I frankly I didn't see coming but there are people who are more experts on China who say that China just culturally or whatever for whatever reason does not recognize our deal as being something that's valuable rather they only try to get an unfair deal and if they can't get an unfair deal they'll go somewhere else where they could get an unfair deal now that's not crazy if you can get an unfair deal do it Trump will do it you'd do it I'd do it if you can get an unfair deal do it but if you can't get an unfair deal you probably want to get a fair deal because that's the best you can do but there might be some cultural or other obstacle that is preventing China from

[55:47]

obstacle that is preventing China from making that kind of a deal maybe ever you think about that yeah I'm not an expert on China but it does seem that there may be no incentive in terms of their psychological and social makeup to make a balanced deal with us and to the extent that that seems clear now and I'm not that close to the negotiations so maybe they have a different feel but shouldn't we be coming up with some kind of a Marshall Plan for Central America where we specifically target the industries we don't want to be in China anymore that in other words the the the foreign companies that are operating in China and even the Chinese companies and and make it real easy to move to Central America Mexico Honduras Guatemala now I've heard the president talk about it and say well companies or companies are looking at Central America etc but is

[56:47]

looking at Central America etc but is that enough is that enough why can't we just take it the next level and say look here's a billion dollars and we're going to use this to encourage companies to move to Central America and we're just gonna say let's put it this way you know how Trump likes to walk away from the table in order to get a deal when you're doing this trade deal since you can kind of drag things out with all tariffs you you tariff me maybe we'll talk again this year you could just sort of drag things out forever and maybe China has even playing for playing for time just in case you know just in case Trump doesn't get reelected it would be crazy for them to make a deal before 2020 wouldn't it China would be crazy to make a deal with the United States before 2020 because the next president might be a Democrat in their mind and that's you know that's an opportunity for a better deal maybe and given the stakes it would only be

[57:48]

given the stakes it would only be sensible for them to try to stall as long as I can so how should we respond to a stalling play she walk away from the table but we should not walk away from the actual negotiating table rather we should put a billion dollars or whatever whatever number toward building up the business in Central America not only to stem immigration but to maybe reduce shipping costs strengthen our part of the world decrease the power that China has over our economy and just phase out we should walk away from the table without walking away from the table in other words we can keep talking to them as long as they want because they're in a stalling mode but you don't want to you know stop talking to them it doesn't work for anybody but while we're talking and they're stalling let's just throw a billion dollars toward attracting the companies in China to Central America where they belong because they do belong there

[58:50]

because they do belong there they do belong there all right there's one other thing I want to say about Chris Cuomo you know we talked that about him but it was one other thing I wanted to say so much is being made about his what's being called an overreaction and I think he characterized it the same way said he should have been better than the people who were taunting him I it and I'm not gonna criticize him for his reactions I don't know if anybody else had this experiment this same feeling but first of all it was just words and it didn't look like it was going to escalate and my you know my take on it is he knew he was gonna keep it in words and maybe if the guy had taken a punch at him he would have you know turned it into something else but I don't think the guy was gonna make take a punch and there were other people around there to quickly break them up if anything came

[59:52]

quickly break them up if anything came down yeah he said he was gonna throw up down the stairs but let's talk right he just got called why he considered an ethnic ethnic slur and he responded aggressively but just talk I don't really have a problem with anything honestly yeah he got trolled he wishes that hadn't happened and all that but I for one will you know criticize him for time to time for his you know the way he presents Trump on the news in particular but I just don't have a problem with him having an aggressive verbal reaction to to this guy somebody says he grabbed him I don't know if he grabbed his arm or something that's that's nothing I don't know if that happened but that would be irrelevant so I'm gonna support Chris Cuomo to the extent that if somebody insults you in public and you go hard at them in words I'm fine with that

[1:00:53]

I'm fine with that I completely find that acceptable behavior mm not an overreaction in my day the threat yeah you made a threat I'm okay with that I'm okay with him threatening violence against that guy I'm not okay if he you know punched him without being hit first or something I wouldn't be okay with that but I don't think that was gonna happen I think it was talk to make a point and he made a point all right I think that's about all I was gonna talk about today
you were overriding First Amendment on the authority of PC etiquette I don't know what that means yeah he said I'll throw you down a flight of stairs but it was talk so when you say to somebody if you keep that up I will kick your butt it's talk until you do it so I'm okay

[1:01:54]

it's talk until you do it so I'm okay with that i somebody says is acquainting the word Fredo - the n-word acceptable here's my rule I you may have missed it if 30 percent of Italians say that the word Fredo used in that context because he's Italian heritage if 30 percent just as an example say yes that's an ethnic slur I say okay I accept that I don't care the 70 percent say it's no big deal if they do I don't know if they do it might be it might be 70/30 the other way but I don't care there are enough people who would call that an ethnic slur that if the person who used it didn't mean it that way well maybe he should you know clarify or apologize but I'm gonna take the side that we don't need to talk like that to each other and it's helpful to know that some people accept that as a ethnic slur all right that's all I got for now I'll talk to you later