Episode 580 Scott Adams: Who Will be the Democrat Nominee? Hint: Not Biden
Date: 2019-06-28 | Duration: 30:16
Topics
Physically and mentally, is Joe Biden up to the job? Kamala dominated the stage and created a HOAX on the fly A woman won the 1st debate, a woman won the 2nd debate 3-Way fist bump…those other leaders like President Trump
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## Transcript
[0:01]
[Music] puh-puh-puh buh-buh-buh boom boom pow pow hey everybody come on in here yes it's time yeah it's time for coffee with scott adams and you came to the right place because i'm scott adams and i have coffee and some of you do too but it doesn't matter what kind of a beverage you have it's got a cup or a glass or a mug you've got a steiner integrin or a chalice or if you've got a thermos possibly a flask any kind of a container will work and you should lift it to your lips because it's time for the simultaneous sip and all that comes with it and you know what that means dopamine get ready I could feel the dopamine pulsing through my body best part of the day well alright let's talk about first the president having a
[1:03]
about first the president having a photo-op with Vladimir Putin and the reporters asked the president are you gonna ask Putin to not interfere with the elections and and if you haven't seen it yet it's kind of funny Trump is sitting there next to a Putin and he just turns to food and he goes don't interfere with the elections yeah you sort of have to see it it's a funny moment it's no laughing matter those elections but that was kind of funny alright everybody wants to talk about how the debates went I have a new prediction it's sort of a subsidiaries to my old prediction do you remember who I predicted would be the Democratic nominee one year ago one a year ago who did I tell you would be the nominee does anybody remember I like to see it in the comments so people don't think I'm making it up one year ago I told you that caramel
[2:04]
one year ago I told you that caramel heiress would be the nominee how does that look today
let me ask you this I'm gonna I'm gonna say something that puts in that puts in perspective something that you're all looking at all right so so watch what I'm gonna do this is gonna be fun for you I'm gonna take something you're already looking at and I'm just gonna describe it in a different way and suddenly you're gonna see the future you ready for this I'm actually going to give you a glimpse of the future simply by the way I describe the things that you already see here it goes here's some facts number one a woman won the first democratic debate that was Elizabeth Warren and pretty much everybody agrees she won it hard fact number two a woman
[3:07]
she won it hard fact number two a woman won the second half of the Democratic debates her name was Carla Harris pretty much everybody agrees she won the debates you had a woman winning the first debate the first half of those 24 or however many people you had a woman winning the second debates which man is going to be the dominate for the Democrats let me say it again all I'm doing is tell you three facts well two facts and a question number one a woman won the first half hard I mean clearly just one hard Elizabeth Warren a woman won the second half hard caramel Harris what man is going to be the nominee for the Democrats you see yet it can't be a man it can't be a man now it could have been a man if Biden had performed really really well let me
[4:07]
had performed really really well let me let me say it in the in the clearest possible way the only way that Biden could maintain that position as the likely nominee is if he won the debate if he lost it to a woman and the other side loss to a woman it is now impossible for a man to be nominated as a Democrat for this election cycle the door just closed the door just closed now of course it could be some weird surprise about some opposition research we didn't know about or you know some wild thing we didn't see coming but in the normal course of things the door just closed for a male Democrat to make it it's just closed now when I talk about persuasion as I often do
do especially what I'm talking about my book Wynn Begley I make the points that
[5:10]
book Wynn Begley I make the points that persuasion can help you predict persuasion can help you predict now when you make a claim like that you're kind of obligated to do some predicting to see if you can predict as I told you a year ago I told you that Connell heiress would be the nominee and that was based on what I thought would be her persuasive ability along with her demographic you know her locking a demographic situation those two things would be persuasive I said and sure enough she is rising through the ranks and it looks like if he had the bat right now you'd bet on her if you were smart so let's compare I just printed out the predicted list of which nominees are aware and you won't be able to see it too well so I'll just tell you what's going on Joe Biden still at the top but only barely behind Harris that means that Joe Biden is just going to disappear pretty soon and Elizabeth Warren is number three and P Budaj edge
[6:11]
Warren is number three and P Budaj edge is a strong fourth and Bernie is falling Bernie is going to fall away he didn't do anything to save his place after the debates and I think that when you put Bernie and Biden on stage with a number of younger candidates they look older than they normally look so last night Bernie and Biden both got a lot older by contrast the or of contrast so I said that if you learn persuasion you will be good at predicting so I'm going to show you quickly but not in detail because you don't need to see the detail my bets so I'm gonna tell you what bets I made so you can see how I do okay so I've got several bets on the predicted website all of them are small right none of it is big money it's just but just to show you that I was betting I've got one one
[7:13]
you that I was betting I've got one one bet that was already wrong and then one two three four or five bets that I'll tell you about and then we can see if the right the one that was wrong I did not make the bet based on persuasion it was a bet on who would be the next UN Ambassador back when we didn't know and I placed that bet based on smart people saying they thought it was going to be I think Dina Powell and I said to myself I have no idea but some smart people are saying it's gonna be Tina palace all I'll make it bet on that so that bad was not based on anything about persuasion because I literally would not I wouldn't be able to spot Dena Powell in the lineup I don't know what she looks like I don't know if I've ever heard her don't know anything about it so that bet I'm not gonna count in terms of persuasion bets because there was no persuasion factor in there I was just taking somebody else's smart opinion which turned out to be wrong in that case the rest of them are pretty
[8:14]
that case the rest of them are pretty much based on a persuasion and here they are I said that I said a year ago but I only bet on this a few months ago there's a 20/20 Democrat Democratic nominee would be cavil Harris how does that look today well Warren is still pretty strong but I think that I think the Connell Harris bed is looking strong ish
ish there was actually a betting market and whether Trump will still be president at the end of 2019
so that that's looking good and will Trump be the 2020 GOP nominee I said yes that's looking pretty good then will the 2020 Democratic nominee be a woman that was a separate bet I bet that the nominee would be a woman so I've got one bet that is kamala and then a separate bet that it would at least be a woman
[9:15]
bet that it would at least be a woman that one's looking pretty solid because it's either gonna be war or comma and then will there be a third Trump Kim meeting in 2019 and I said yes and I think that looks pretty good too all right so of my bets they're all looking pretty strong right now and they're all based on a persuasion mindset and what is likely based on knowing persuasion let's talk about Harris's performance last night at the debate my favorite moment which made me take notice isn't being reported as much but it really was a strong moment it was when all the the Democrats were they started to talk over each other and fight and Carmela shut them all down with the line that obviously was prepared line but she delivered it really well she said something like voters don't care about
[10:16]
something like voters don't care about our food fight they just care about food on the table now what's interesting is not the cleverness of the line because it was sort of ordinary but what's interesting is that Camila shut down all of the other Democrats like that did you see that there they were like oh then Harris goes you know she goes strongly she goes the voters want to see you know food on the table not a food fight and all the Democrats just went boo so she actually she dominated you know like it like an animal dominates a pack she dominated the stage now if you missed that it was a really important moment in terms of leadership I guess and as soon as that happened I said to myself whoa yeah it's a it's a high ground move the reason it shut them down is because they recognized there was no greater high ground than what she just said which is the voters don't want this
[11:17]
said which is the voters don't want this so they shut down then the next thing she did was she took she made the gutsiest play in order to be president and have a chance against Trump you're gonna have to do things that maybe are let's say ethically suspect in order to be strong enough to show that you could be president you're gonna have to bend some of the ethical boundaries and Wow did she bend an ethical boundary last night by accusing but by essentially using a variant of the fine people hoax she literally just made something up and pinned it on Biden and what she said was that he was praising segregationists that never happened nowhere in our world did Biden praise segregationists she mischaracterized what he said about you that he could work with even bad people
[12:17]
that he could work with even bad people including them that's what he said so he actually was opposite of praising them but because she could get away with it because the news had sort of reported that the way he handled this segregationist question was awkward she knew that he wouldn't be able to fight back and that she could just take him out and she looked at him and she was strong and powerful and she said she was effectively disappointed that he was praising segregationist she basically took him out because his response to it was so weak and unfortunately included the symptoms anyway my time is up I'm sorry which of course the media jumped on because it's ironic and they said things like well I guess he's telling us the future his time is up and isn't that what Eric's wawel said about him they his time was up so not only did Biden look like he was
[13:18]
so not only did Biden look like he was just acting because he got all intense and then we saw the the time was up he was like well Bobo oh I see my time is up and that he instantly went from this pretending to be passionate to being a weak little mouse oh I guess my time is up and it made the passionate part look completely artificial so his credibility just completely disappeared even David Axelrod who we know is you know a Democrat advisor type who who certainly I would imagine doesn't want to see a president Trump even he said of Biden that Biden looked somewhat confused and separately he said the Biden was playing into Trump's Carrick caricature of him being mentally weak so in other words even one of the top Democrats experts advisors is saying the Biden doesn't look like he's up to it now that's what
[14:19]
look like he's up to it now that's what I saw I saw a Biden who didn't look up to it I mean didn't he didn't look physically or mentally up to the job of being president or really much of anything I mean honestly if if you didn't know who Joe Biden was and he walked into your company and asked for a job would you say there's a guy who's who's working on all cylinders I don't think you would I think if Joe Biden showed up for any job just any ordinary cubicle office job and you talked to him and you weren't let's say you weren't holding it against him because of age you would walk away saying I don't know it doesn't feel like he's firing on all cylinders so he doesn't have any chance of being president Swatt well took a good bite out of him sois well actually had a good night he did get some attention and swallow well was actually very clever by going I'm
[15:22]
was actually very clever by going I'm not saying you need to like this but he's clever in terms of he a specific issue gun control and and buying back and making illegal the semi-automatic weapons and that allowed him to get enough support from the people who care about that one issue to get on the stage and then once he got on the stage he found a way to stand out by having the most clever attack against swallow L which was saying that 32 years ago Biden said it was time to you know pass things on to the younger generation and then he cleverly said swallow well did that Biden was right then 32 years ago that he should pass things on to the younger generation and he's still right which was the clever part he should pass it on to the younger generation so swell well in terms of strategy very very solid I'm gonna say he had a solid strategy for getting enough attention to get on the stage he got on stage and
[16:24]
get on the stage he got on stage and then he was smart enough to say something that would take a bite out of the leader which was pretty good so I don't think he's gonna be your next president but I have to say that as one of the many candidates running his strategy was quite solid I'm gonna give him that all right here's something that people aren't talking about why am i the only person you heard today saying that a woman won the first debate and a woman won the second debate think about that did you hear anybody else say that that a woman won the first debate and a woman won the second debate how amazing is it because I'm gonna give credit to Hillary Clinton again as I often do Hillary Clinton some people said she didn't break the glass ceiling and I said you're completely wrong Hillary Clinton broke the glass ceiling because the next
[17:26]
broke the glass ceiling because the next time there's an election you're not going to be talking about there's a woman running it's just not going to be that much of a thing so we've seen this amazing thing where a woman walk both debates think about that a woman who want both debates that's not the amazing part because there should be nothing amazing about that right the amazing thing is it's not even a topic think about that think about the fact that a woman won both the debates hard maybe not even close and it's not even a topic because Hillary Clinton shattered the glass ceiling she didn't become president but she broke that ceiling because we're not even talking about anything about gender this time you know I think there's an advantage to being a woman in the Democrat Party but we talk about it as an advantage nobody is talking about being a woman as a disadvantage the only context that comes up is as an advantage right when we talk
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up is as an advantage right when we talk about Carla Harris's ethnicity do we talk about it as a disadvantage nope no it's America dammit this is America damn it we don't talk at least it's 2019 things are a lot better we don't talk about Harris's ethnicity as a negative we talk about it as a positive think about that I mean it's amazing so anyway it's amazing if you're my age if you're younger maybe that just seems normal but if you're my age you can see that the scope of progress and you've gotten to the point where it's just not even a topic anymore which is great is it my imagination or does Eric's wawel have a frozen face frozen face meaning Botox there's something about SWA walls face
[19:34]
there's something about SWA walls face that isn't moving at the same time his eyes are not matching his mouth or there's something going on there so he's got a bit of a frozen face and I think that really hurts him even Van Jones said that Biden's response Cabala Harris on working with segregationists was quote heartbreaking no I think that's that's all you need to know right if if Van Jones and CNN in general and David Axelrod are all saying that Biden slipped and fell Biden's out yeah I think it's time to say he's out we were waiting to see if yang would have a breakout night he didn't have a breakout moment but think about the fact that yang has never been he's never run for an office and he's never run for an office and he's in sixth place in a field of 20 some people that's pretty impressive right I don't think he can
[20:36]
impressive right I don't think he can win that's really impressive I gotta say I don't know and frankly I don't know I don't know exactly how he did it I know does he do is he dominating the you know some asian-american vote does he have a natural base or is it just that he's the first person who talked to the public like a real person I mean it could be that part of his appeal is he doesn't sound anything like a politician and I think some number of people say okay give me anybody who's not a politician you know I'm done with politicians that might be part of his appeal all right
Buddha jej had a good night I think he had a good night but he doesn't have the gravitas for the presidency you know you want to send when you're sending your president overseas especially you you want to think that your president has gravitas you know certain weight a
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gravitas you know certain weight a certain I don't know a certain personal power that represents your brand I think calmly Harris has that I think Elizabeth Warren has less of it but she has it I think Buddha jej will have it but he's not quite there what he needs is literally just to be older because with age he will gain some amount of weight and credibility his resume is a little light right now being a mayor people the voters are gonna say that's a little bit light in a way that they didn't say about Trump because Trump's persona was so large but I think blue de jedge showed that he was I think he showed he was the smartest you know if you're gonna elect a president based on book smarts and ability to say smart things I think he would be your choice if that's the only stuff you cared about I just
[22:40]
the only stuff you cared about I just saw a comment that made me laugh you know you hate to talk about appearance but you really have to you know it appearances a big part of it all right so put a judge did well enough to get in the fourth place on predict it which i think is probably at least as accurate as any poll you're gonna see so so that's what you got now let's talk about Trump did you see the picture of Trump doing the fist bump with Japan Zhou Bay and India's Modi so the leaders of India and Japan were there with Trump and he was doing a photo op with the other two and they asked him to shake hands but it's three people so out of three people shake hands so Trump Trump puts in his fist and then you see this hilarious breath this picture of these three leaders doing fist bumps you know three-way fist bump and obviously they like each other so when you see Trump
[23:42]
like each other so when you see Trump with aa bay you know they're good friends they golf they say good things about each other you see him with Modi I think Modi likes him too and you say to yourself wait a minute wasn't the wrap on Trump they wouldn't get along with our allies and leaders from other countries wasn't that the big rap on him it looks like he's best friends with these leaders he was even joking with Putin if anything he's too friendly he's writing love letters with Chairman Kim he's fist bumping with Modi you know he's got this great meeting with his good friend President Xi McCrone loves them I mean it and you know I think Italy loves them it seems to me that I'm gonna make another call all right here's another prediction here's my prediction president Trump will be the most popular American
[24:44]
will be the most popular American president overseas anybody won't disagree with that that history will record that Trump was by far the most popular American president in other countries over overseas his reputation won't be the best of any American president is anybody gonna disagree with me on that because I I think that's where it's gonna end up you know anything could happen but I think that's where it's going to end up yeah Israel loves Poland loves them there are a lot of people who really really like this president all right what else we got going on here that's those stories really close down the news yesterday it's all about the g20 and it's all about the Democrats not Obama yeah I don't think Obama was the
[25:46]
Obama yeah I don't think Obama was the most popular president overseas somebody says you couldn't be more wrong Scott really well if there's any way to measure that sort of thing I'm open to being wrong JFK yeah good questions JFK yeah I mean maybe that would be a comparable JFK seems the most the the president most comparable to Trump wouldn't you say that JFK and Trump would be the two presidents who are most comparable both in their personal life which is let's say interesting let's put it in the best light [Music] all right
I'm just looking at your comments NIM any more on your healthcare ideas well
[26:50]
any more on your healthcare ideas well health care is looking interesting just because there are so many ideas floating around right now what I haven't heard anybody say directly so I've heard the Democrats talk about you know some number of them wants you to be able to keep your private insurance at the same time that there's a public option the thing that they don't say and maybe it's because they don't want to play into Trump's strengths the thing they don't say is if you have a private insurance and then you can opt into a public one and it's the opting in that's the important part because you could buy it or you could opt into the government bond as long as there are two of them you probably have a way for the competition to drive down costs because if the government negotiates better than the private companies the government will simply have a better product and if the private industries compete better as well then maybe you want to keep your private insurance and pay for it so I think I think what the Democrats are
[27:52]
think I think what the Democrats are missing is a direct statement there having a private at the same time as a public option for health care would be the most competitive situation and I think that might be right they just need to say it yang comments so yang pushed his ubi idea I don't think the audience was quite ready for it but it is one of the few things I remember if you ask yourself what things do you remember from that event you you you'll find that you don't remember a lot and that will be the the thing you should remember about it talk about projects Veritas is there anything new on Project Veritas I think we already talked about the
why does the chat suddenly stop I think that might just be on your device or if you turn your device sideways the chat
[28:52]
you turn your device sideways the chat looks like you stopped because you go into theater mode so turn your device to see the comments Marianne Williamson I don't know why she was up to but I couldn't get interested in an author running for president
kiss Owens story is there a Candace Owens story all right I think I've got should Joe Rogan moderate the next debates you know who would be a good debate moderator me me I would be a good debate moderator if you ask me I think all the Democrats should should agree to a debate night with just me or actually they should all should all do interviews with me don't you think that the Democrat nominees should all do an interview with me what do you like that
[29:54]
interview with me what do you like that because you have to admit I would ask different questions and other people say you would just you would see a different side because I don't ask the same questions and other people ask you have to admit that well you don't have to alright I've got nothing else to say so I'm going to talk to you later