Episode 571 Scott Adams: Hacking the Algorithm and Other Stuff
Date: 2019-06-19 | Duration: 31:24
Topics
Joe Biden and Don Lemon both STILL spreading “FPH” My “FPH” test video…YouTube algorithm quickly demonetized it Reverse engineering YouTube’s algorithm Schumer and Cotton jointly working on China Fentanyl solution China MIGHT be holding off on Fentanyl control as bargaining chip Apple looking around for non-China solutions Voting machines…who builds them for small countries? Voting technology essentially controls those countries Russian nuclear power plant on a ship President Trump’s campaign announcement and rally in Orlando MAGA or KAG…brilliant strategy Prediction: In President Trump’s 4th year of his second term…
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> [!note] Rough Transcript
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## Transcript
[0:08]
boom baby hey everybody guess what guess what it's time for a coffee with Scott Adams featuring the highlight of your day the place where your dopamine starts getting on board starts to become part of your day yeah sorry I'm a little late I'll tell you why in a moment but first grab tankard or a Stein or a chalice grab your copy or mug your glass your thermos your flask chiller with your favorite liquid like I like the coffee that's what I like enjoy me now for the unparalleled pleasure of the simultaneous scent
delightful well I was just sending out a humorous tweet which made me be a little late here I couldn't quite get the wording right but I was watching a video of it looks like Jerry Nadler walking in
[1:09]
of it looks like Jerry Nadler walking in for his hearings with hope Hicks you have to see this tweet because the the contrast le Alexander just pointed this out it's the funniest contrast so normally I don't like to talk about people's appearances because it's sort of the the low the lowest end of humor is talking about people's appearances but I can't help it this time this time is just it's just sort of in your face so find the video you could look at the one I tweeted but you'll see others in which hope Hicks was walking down the hallway to the hearing apparently with Nadler and crew followed by Adler now hope X I don't know if it's she had a good hair day the lighting is good but she looks like I don't know the the most beautiful supermodel who ever walked out of hallway or the second most beautiful light you know Christine is the most beautiful but she's walking down the
[2:10]
beautiful but she's walking down the hallway and you know just looking good and a very very anethe place in this political hallway with bunch of politicians and then the very next person is Nadler then Adler's pants if you haven't noticed every year his his pants level gets higher and higher until he's wearing his pants starting about here now and I was trying to write a funny tweet about you know what's gonna happen if his pants keep getting higher and then I thought wait a minute will they think I'm making a tweet about his pants because ho pics is looking good now I don't want to do that that's you know that's not the direction I want to go so I went with that you have to keep an eye on nethers pants because if they keep rising at this rate he's gonna have to unzip his fly just to talk and I think that was worth thanked yes it wasn't important but it was worth saying all right let's talk about some other
[3:12]
all right let's talk about some other interesting news so both both Joe Biden and Don Lemon I have once again in public once again spreading the fph now if you don't know what the f pH is there's a reason I'm using the letters instead of the words because I did a little test yesterday to see if YouTube would D monetize me for a certain word or a certain set of words those words are start with F P and H what do you think do you think and and I did the test so I would say nothing else that could possibly be over the line so I was very clear it was a single purpose periscope and just a test which then got loaded onto YouTube what do you think happened demonetized instantly deep monetized note no curse words no incorrect
[4:13]
note no curse words no incorrect information so there were no curses no in the correct information it was not offensive in any way I there were no offensive material the only thing in it was the three words they start with F P and H those of you who are on periscope watching this you can see the see what that means those of you who are watching this later on YouTube who are doing it on YouTube will not will not see those words but you can figure it out by context now somebody here is asking me if yeah if it might be because of another word another word that sometimes is used to refer to bad people who have a certain belief system and if I were to spell it backwards it would be i Z am so I made sure that I didn't use that word you know use of the
[5:15]
didn't use that word you know use of the word correctly in my test now it did get ramana Thais dafair li quickly so it was instantly demonetized on YouTube so that the test worked or there was nothing offensive in it it was just content then apparently somebody doesn't want to monetize and I do understand that you would not want to pair advertisements with any conversation on that topic because most people talking about that topic are going to say something that the advertisers wouldn't want to associate with I don't but here's the problem even if you get D monetized temporarily and that Ramana ties it doesn't help at all because all of your monetization happens in the first 24 hours so pretty much at least in my case the viewership is 80% of the first day so if they D monetize the first day and then say ups while we was an overreach
[6:15]
then say ups while we was an overreach will will Ramana ties you doesn't help at all it doesn't help at all because you've already lost all of your monetization so this was shocking just shocking that content that was completely clean and appropriate and not controversial even not controversial all you know some people might disagree with it but it wouldn't be controversial in the normal sense so anyway um it seems to me that I put a little more work into how we could determine what the algorithm is doing without being the holders of the algorithm and here's how I do it what you do is you take a bunch of different accounts YouTube accounts and you'd ask them to report their experience so if they got demonetized they would report to this central central what site or something when they got demonetised in and what was
[7:16]
got demonetised in and what was demonetised then that central site can do the same thing that I assume YouTube does which is do a speech-to-text and then look for text that may have been the problem text now in the case of YouTube they're looking for text that they've already banned or they want to throttle and then it does its thing presumably I'm presuming that's how it happens I might be wrong so if you wanted to find out what keywords they were looking for without them telling you because they won't you could have a number of accounts that volunteer to tell you when they get demonetised and then once somebody reports i've been to monetize this central site that's sort of a monitoring site could check their speech-to-text only if they get demonetised and then running to run it against other people who are d monetized and find the correlations so if every time somebody says orange it gets demonetized you would notice that because would happen to a variety of accounts there wouldn't
[8:17]
to a variety of accounts there wouldn't have much of anything else in common so if he had enough accounts who were willing to report when they got to monetized to a central monitoring organization or a person I think you could work backwards I think you could work backwards to figure out what the keywords were and why you got banned and that would have been very helpful in this situation all right
sorry I saw that Chuck Schumer and Tom cotton who are on opposite sides of politics are combining to do some kind of a fentanyl sanctions bill against China so in other words if Congress is working across the aisle Thank You Congress Thank You Chuck Schumer I'm gonna I'll always call out when the people I don't agree with do something I like Chuck Schumer is doing something I
[9:19]
like Chuck Schumer is doing something I like a lot Thank You Chuck Schumer strong play Chuck Schumer so I guess the idea is that they will identify what what companies have direct or indirect involvement with fentanyl production in China and if they seem to be according to us if they seem to be involved in any kind of illicit fentanyl trade that we will sanction them and make them hurt financially now what does that tell you that we need to do that the fact that we need to do this tells you that President Xi lied to our president when he said that he would you know increase the penalties unfenced all and make it a capital case a death penalty case and that they would change the law that they would start getting start getting tough on them now remember what I've said from the start I said from the start don't
[10:21]
the start I said from the start don't know that you can believe that that could be just something they're holding out there and apparently apparently they were going to hold that hostage possibly as part of the trade negotiations do you know what I say if I hear that China is holding that out as a trade negotiation item well what I say would get me demonetized everywhere because what I will say privately about China if that's what they're doing if they're holding this out as a negotiating variable well then yeah I don't want to say what I'm gonna say because you can you can think it those of you who don't know I lost my stepson in October actually September 2 fetanyl to to a drug overdose in which fentanyl was part of it and I don't think we should do any kind of a trade deal with China as long as fentanyl from
[11:24]
deal with China as long as fentanyl from there is coming into our country and it's obvious they're not trying to stop it we should just look for other places to trade I noted in the news that Apple is starting to ask its suppliers to consider looking around for different countries to build the parts for the iPhones and the iPads now I say to Apple Apple I'm down by the way I own stock an apple not much just you know ordinary part of my portfolio but I would be willing to take a hit to my stock 20% I would take a 20 percent reduction in my Apple stock price for them to take on the extra expense of moving to another country Catana China so Apple one of the maybe the greatest yeah you could argue that Apple is the greatest American
[12:26]
that Apple is the greatest American company of all time I don't know how you'd measure that sort of thing well you could argue it's the greatest American company and at the moment the greatest America American company is a Richie enriching our biggest enemy in the world and I'm gonna say China is an enemy because as long as they're not doing anything about the fentanyl they're in a in the in let's say a non-shooting war with us at which they're taking maybe 50,000 lives a year and we're taking none so I think I think we should crush their economy I'm in favor of crushing China's economy because they're not you know they're still is stealing our IP and sending us poison killing 50,000 Americans per year and trying to dominate us we should just crush their economy I'm not in favor of any kind of trade deal now if we get one I'm sure the stock will go up that people will be happy about that but I really think the
[13:26]
happy about that but I really think the long term the long term move is to get companies out of there and and just shut them down because they have not there's a certain requirement to capitalism which is trust now even in the capitalist system of course nobody fully trusts anybody and there are plenty of bad actors etc so you have to have lots of you know a good core system etc to make capitalism work but at the moment we don't have these kinds of problems with Germany we don't have the kinds of problems we have trading with China we don't have them with I don't think you pick any other country Mexico yeah even Mexico we've got our issues with Mexico but we don't have well we do have problem with Mexico it's a bad example yeah let's say India actually I think India might be a little bit of a source for offense at all I would have to I would have to research that but there might be some coming in from India
[14:29]
there might be some coming in from India don't quote me on that because I'm not sure about that but the point is China is not a dependable partner and in capitalism doesn't work unless you have some minimum level of trust all right trust but verify but you have to have a minimum level of at least believing they'll do some of the things they say they'll do and they don't seem to be in the mold they seem to have taken themselves out of the capitalist system by simply not being a reliable dependable honest or a fair player at any sense so now I say we should move all of our industry out of China as quickly as possible and I personally will pay extra to get that done all right here's a question for you who builds the voting machines for smaller democracies I don't know the
[15:30]
smaller democracies I don't know the answer this question so it's a question that I probably should know the answer I shouldn't I shouldn't ask it but for countries that are have legitimate voting processes and people really do you know the leaders do change based on the votes who makes those voting machines let's say let's say Africa if you were to look at the entire continent of Africa I don't know exactly how many of those countries have legitimate democracies 70 of them have puppet governments dictators etc but over time you would expect there would be more and more democratic looking countries in Africa who makes their voting machines because whoever makes the voting machines eventually you know once they're off of paper ballots yeah so there's certainly the at the low end people are on paper ballots but at some point even the paper ballots have to be added up right even the paper ballots get reported somewhere they get into a
[16:32]
get reported somewhere they get into a computer somewhere there's some computing going on to count stuff up it seems to me that whatever country is in charge of the voting technology whether it's the voting machines or it's where they sum up the totals of the voting machines that country would essentially be you know at the mercy of whoever makes the machines I would think and so I would I would keep an eye on that good news russia has put a new FLIR they shouldn't stop in the middle of a sentence russia put a nuclear power plant on a boat so they've they figured out how to make a small enough nuclear power plant that they can put it on a boat and take you to a remote part of russia pull into the bay hook it up with wires and provide power to remote places where it would be too hard apparently to
[17:33]
where it would be too hard apparently to go build a building to just be too hard so they put it on a boat and take the boat there now think about that yeah I know you're you're worried that the Russians don't have the same safety standards that that we would like I got a question for you what happens when radiation gets in the ocean I always wondered if you had a big nuclear event in the ocean like let's say or when we did our underwater nuclear tests and stuff where does all that radiation kow that if you fill the ocean with radiation doesn't it doesn't just sort of spread out forever does it stay in one place I don't understand the risks I don't know the risks of a nuclear event in the ocean is that big or small I can't tell all right
those are the big stories of the day I haven't I got a little late start today
[18:35]
haven't I got a little late start today because my my fire alarm went off or at least the low battery alarm went off so I'm gonna look on CNN's homepage and see what I missed magicians body found after a failed river escape stunt well here's my advice to anybody who wants to copy Houdini that's really not the kind of job that has a long life expectancy I do not recommend that any of you get into the magician Houdini sort of thing oh I forgot to talk about the president duh so how many of you watched the president's announcement speech last night I watched it while I was floating in the pool yes I have a pool and I'm floating there and I had my my phone just playing the speech and I listened
[19:37]
just playing the speech and I listened to it for I don't know half an hour or 45 minutes or something and here's the thing I I never got bored I can't remember the last time I watched a some other politician speak for half an hour and I didn't get bored think about that when was the last time that happened I liked when Bill Clinton spoke so back in the Bill Clinton days he could keep me out of tain for a long time I really liked I liked him as a public speaker Obama is a good public speaker but not that interesting over the long haul he's a little dry he's great at his job Obama is an amazing politician but he's a little dry on his speeches Reagan was great if any of any of you were old enough to be around during Reagan's time Reagan was great he could hold the crowd but man nobody can hold a crowd like Trump I don't know if we'll ever have a president who can do
[20:41]
we'll ever have a president who can do what he does that the size of his crowds are partly a reflection of his popularity in in a political sense but partly a reflection of he's putting on the best show in the country right now you know if you if he sold tickets to his show people would buy them you know there he doesn't sell tickets but other people would buy those tickets anyway so my favorite part and I will note that he just keeps getting better and better at that so his ability to hold a crowd and you know really have them in the palm of his hand is just getting better and better and he did a little a be testing on his upcoming slogan so I hope you caught that part because it was it was brilliant it was simple and something that you might have said well I would
[21:41]
that you might have said well I would have done too but you didn't and he did and so he sent to the crowd I'll paraphrase but he said basically you know there's a big question where about was slogan we should have they talked about how make America great again was possibly the greatest slogan of all time which I agree I would say he has a strong claim very strong claim to say that that was the best branding best slogan ever created for a political event I think he could say that with a you know that feels like a supportable statement but after he says but it's the greatest one how can we how can we move from this greatest thing how can we really come up with a better slogan than that so he sets it up perfectly because he's signaling to the crowd indirectly but still clearly he's telling the crowd without telling them he's telling them it's time to move on but he told them
[22:41]
it's time to move on but he told them it's time to move on by paying complete respect to the old one so he didn't he didn't stomp on he said was just the greatest thing ever
but then he said what about you know comparing it to Keep America great and so then he did a sort of a vote from the crowd where they were cheer and now he set them up so he's told the group he hasn't told the crowd he hasn't told the crowd what he prefers in direct language but he's very much told them he prefers the new one all right so he hasn't said it but he has indicated it and then he does the what do you like and they cheer for make America great again and then he says Keep America great and the crowd goes nuts of course exactly like he it like he primed them to do so it was in one way you could say it was a fairly ordinary thing to do you simply asked
[23:42]
ordinary thing to do you simply asked the crowd for their opinion and monitored their response so in one sense very ordinary but here's the thing nobody else did it it worked it was an amazing moment so he has a way of taking the ordinary that was available to everybody you know everybody had the ability to work a crowd this way he didn't have any special access to a crowd or anything but he worked that crowd like I've never seen a crowd worked and and I'm gonna say that actually as a literal not a figurative statement I don't think I've ever seen anybody over to grab that hard you know musicians on their crowds in different ways but but this was masterful now let me if you--if you're not aware of the technique let me tell you the technique you use technique number one he has associated his rally speeches with fun and humor and laughing and good
[24:44]
with fun and humor and laughing and good times so people showed up in the perfect mood they showed up laughing happy ready for a good time so he's primed them over you know over the years to know that this is going to be a fun night and they show up in a good mood because they're expecting it they become self-fulfilling but here's the brilliant part for the first I don't know how many minutes was a big chunk of time all the president did was say things that people who were his supporters already believed to be true and he said them in the way that they believed them to be true in other words he just went down the line of everything that a Republican trump supporter believes is true and they said it in his own words that's called pacing he said nothing that a trump supporter would disagree with and he kept hitting a Boom Boom Boom he did not try to challenge the group he
[25:45]
he did not try to challenge the group he did not try to introduce a new idea it was the wrong place he wanted to pace them he wanted to say what they were thinking as they were thinking it and there was a point there where he actually I forget the exact words but he actually said something like you're thinking this or I know what you're thinking which is technique that's persuasion technique so he was trying to create create the understanding that what he was saying is what they were thinking that's that's pacing what you saying is what they're thinking but you say it in a clever way a little bit better way than they're thinking it once he's got them on their side he ask them to do something asking your crowd to do something is a very very very very very very very very very very effective thing to do I'm hitting this because if you only learn one thing from this periscope it would be the best
[26:45]
from this periscope it would be the best thing you ever learned let me say it again if you can make your crowd do something do something beyond you know just clapping and showing up if you can make them do something you can own them so he paces them first hey I'm you the the things coming out of my mouth are just the things you're thinking then he has him on his side get some excited gets their energy up and then he asked them to do something which is the vote which is these things he like if you want to do that on a small scale with your own audiences one of the ways that I did it back in my corporate days was I would hand out tic tacs before I talked about a boring topic and I would tell people here here's a there's some tic tacs pass them around everybody take a tic-tac because it'll keep you from from yawning and it does if if your audience has a tic-tac they won't yarn people who have a tic-tac isn't a mouth though you are this is true so I would make them take a
[27:46]
this is true so I would make them take a tic-tac and pass it around now what I'm doing is making them do something I'm making them do something for me and that's part of controlling the crowd if you could make them do something small you get them on their side so you wants them to do things very important physically do things with their body alright so it was a masterful time you could imagine I felt bad for her can you imagine what are the Democrats watching that thing can you imagine you're one of the Democrat challengers if you watch that Trump that Trump rally huge one you just want to quit it was so so strong I mean you could you can dislike this president and still say all right you know even though I don't like this president that that rally wasn't amazing because it was it was just amazing I'm so happy to be alive during this
[28:47]
I'm so happy to be alive during this time to actually see this because that you could imagine that describing what this is like to some future generation isn't going to work because they wouldn't you have to experience it so I was also thinking can you imagine imagine how good he is at this right now forget about politics he's just good at this rally stuff and speeches imagine how good he will be in his second term in the fourth year think about it second term Trump fourth year of his second term nothing to lose top of his game experienced relaxed best there's ever been imagine last year of Trump rally imagine the size of the crowds because people will know in his final year people will know that they'll never see this again
[29:47]
know that they'll never see this again think about that in his last year of office presuming that he gets a second term everybody who ever thought of going to one is gonna say this will never happen again we have to go see this once in our life the crowds are going to be he might have a crowd of a million he might be the first president I'll make the prediction here's a prediction
assuming that Trump gets reelected which i think is true in his fourth year of the second term he is last year I predict he'll have at least one event live event that will attract 1 million voters 1 million that's my prediction I think you got over a hundred thousand at this last one but 1 million it'll be the first time now obviously a million people can't watch a live event so they would be watching screens they would
[30:47]
would be watching screens they would just be sort of in the general area but I think he's going to get a million people on the street just respect so that's somebody says they'll hold me to that please do Oh July 4th yeah it might be the 4th of July you're right in his final year all right so that's all I have for now sleepy Joe isn't doing much we're waiting for Trump to live tweet their debates that'll be fun and I will talk to you all later