Episode 562 Scott Adams: Sleepy Joe, North Korea Execution Sites, Robots Building Homes, Mexico
Date: 2019-06-12 | Duration: 49:11
Topics
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Rough Transcript
This is an auto-generated transcript and may contain errors.
Transcript
[0:07]
bum bum bum bum bum hello everybody come on in here gather around it’s time for the unparalleled pleasure of the simultaneous set and you the smart fleet of finger people are here now some of you wondered why you had not gotten a notification of my periscope last time let me move this up a little bit there we go and I noticed this morning that the notification button had been unselected so I have one more piece of confirmation bias probably to add to the question of whether or not there is something called shadow bending because I certainly did not intentionally turn off the Twitter notification but it’s off now typically once you’ve selected it it stays on unless there’s some condition that turns
[1:08]
unless there’s some condition that turns it off on its own because I’ve had that happen a number of times so I’ve turned it back on most of you should see it this morning and that means you’re just in time for the simultaneous up and you know how that works you need to cover a glass or a mug in a Stein a chalice or tankard you need a thermos possibly a flask any kind of a vessel to hold your favorite liquid I like coffee join me now for the simultaneous sip so did you ever wonder what it would look like if you were me and you left your soul and you could float above yourself and look down at yourself from above well you don’t have to wonder anymore here you go this is me I’m I’ve now left my soul and I’m floating above my lifeless body that you can see down here and how cool is this
[2:13]
here and how cool is this yes you can see my breakfast I just ate it let’s have another sip but I know you want to look at my face why wouldn’t you really come on now there we go so let’s talk about the news did anybody watch both Joe Biden’s sleepy speech at the same day the president trumpet held forth a longish press conference on the lawn oh my god the contrast the contrast it was really it was really amazing so you saw sleepy Joe who looked like literally he was sleepy and he looked so sleepy that even an MSNBC correspondent called the down at the time and if NBC is telling you you look sleepy I think he said that he was he was delivering
[3:15]
he said that he was he was delivering prepared prepared speech but he was doing it without much gusto which is the way that MSNBC says he’s sleepy so that’s the first part that’s funny now if you looked at the backdrop of Joe Biden’s little clips it’s some little boring room with a boring group of people who didn’t seem very energized so it’s it’s sort of gray dull boring white you know background and then the same day they switched to the president who’s standing in front of us these green trees this green lawn and you can hear Air Force One behind him his hair his golden hair is blowing in the breeze it it looked like one of those movies this starts in black and white and then as the movie progresses it slowly turns into full-color movie if you looked at the Biden stuff and then go directly to the
[4:18]
Biden stuff and then go directly to the Trump talk one is operating at no voltage there’s no color there’s no energy there’s no nothing there just lays there like a turd and then you see Trump and Trump is just like bristling with physical and you know social energy I guess you’d call it his backdrop is incredibly life-affirming you know green and lush and you know the wind is blowing and in the hair is actually even the Sun the way the Sun was bouncing off the president it made him glisten and I realize how this sounds when I’m saying it but and I’m exaggerating a little bit but you have to see the two pictures side by side and and it’s it’s amazing contrast but I tweeted that yesterday was the day that the the experts the pundits realized that President Trump took out Joe Biden with one word with
[5:20]
took out Joe Biden with one word with one word Trump has ended Biden’s chances and that word of course is sleepy because even if Emma if N met MSNBC is starting to see it you know that Biden is probably trying to respond to it the funny thing is that if you call Joe Biden’s sleepy and he’s worried about his energy because he’s a certain age right if you were Joe Biden’s age it would be a legitimate question how much work you want to do every day how many events how many hours do you want to be talking to people so you know it’s in his head that he has to act like he has energy but he’s also trying to sell himself as the bland option if your entire marketing campaign is I’m not going to be exciting like Trump I’m gonna be normal I’m gonna normalize things watch out normal I am we can’t really ramp up the
[6:20]
normal I am we can’t really ramp up the energy I’m normal so he’s got a campaign theme that forces him to be boring and he’s got a boring personality and not much energy and the president is just bristling with it so I don’t see any chance that he could win here’s the funny part apparently in Biden’s speech last night he he started off the speech with the fine people hoax and said that he believes that he believes the hoax he doesn’t call it a hoax cuz he still thinks it’s true but he believes that the president actually called the neo-nazis fine people in Charlotte’s film which didn’t happen the president said the opposite anybody who checks the transcript or watching this is a full video not the misleading edited version can see that but apparently there was a heckler in the audience and the heckler stood up and haggled them and essentially fact-checked him i believe I didn’t I didn’t hear the tape but I think the heckler fact-checked him on the fine
[7:23]
heckler fact-checked him on the fine people hoax which is hilarious now I I sent around a tweet after I heard that and here was my tweet I said I’m worried about sleepy Joe Biden’s health after seeing him on CNN today the part I was just talking about I said his energy is super low and he thinks the fine people hoax is real hashtags link Joe now and that got retweeted by Don jr. so it’s kind of went viral has a few thousand retweets now here’s here’s why I worded my tweet the way I did I’m sort of tired and maybe I’m past it I shouldn’t say I’m tired even though I am tired I’m past explaining why the fine people hoax is a hoax it’s in the transcript anybody can read it themselves there’s no mystery to it but
[8:25]
themselves there’s no mystery to it but I’ve decided to call it a medical problem because when Biden does it it does look for all the world like he’s not quite capable because he literally launched his campaign on the most obvious easily debunked hoax in the United States nothing could be debunked more easily than looking at the transcript and seeing that the transcript is the opposite of the hoax that’s about as easy as you can debunk something and he and he says he’s launching his campaign on it well now I am actually worried about him because his campaign is starting to look like elder abuse you know whoever it is that who is pushing Biden in front of the public with that level of capability is not doing him any favor because I don’t see any way he makes it to the finish line I mean there was it being president and he just doesn’t look like he has the energy or the or the vitality to pull it off so
[9:29]
the or the vitality to pull it off so here’s how you know you’ve hit a nerve and I’ve learned this for the last several years on Twitter whenever I say something about Democrats or anything positive about the president that hits a nerve where people can see it’s going to make a difference my new moved the needle a little bit the the professional trolls come out so right after Don junior retweeted my my statement about Biden believing the fine people hoax and having a medical potential medical problem the trolls came out so so the moment that got retweeted my Twitter feed went from completely sane because I’ve been blocking all the bad people like just no negativity at all just people making comments they don’t all agree with me but at least they’re making polite comments and then the moment that tweet went out BAM I got hit with all the all
[10:31]
went out BAM I got hit with all the all the trolls who act the same so these are the trolls who just come in and say what about Trump’s lies and you know he’s not going to leave office and he’s crazy and but but most of them are just insulting me or or my credibility or whatever so apparently the the sleepy Joe and there’s something wrong with his health attacks are very effective because they unleash the trolls that say you know you’re over the target so that that seems to be the the winning attack all right the president if you looked at the what the president did in his press conference it was brilliant communication style from beginning to end end so his energy was high he held the room he controlled the questions he used lots of visual persuasion he was pointing to his head and he kept saying that he wanted to run against Biden because he goes Biden is the weakest mentally he’s
[11:33]
goes Biden is the weakest mentally he’s mentally weak and he would point to his head when he talked about it when when Trump talked about the Mexican immigration deal he takes it out of his pocket apparently it was actually in his pocket the deal and he holds it up he and so it becomes a strong visual if you watch Trump for five minutes you’re going to see him using simplification energy clarity repetition you know he repeated the the weak weak-minded thing he repeated several times so that we know that was the thing that he wants you to repeat later again you know so every every good technique that the most skilled presenter would try to train you to use you watched President Trump use right in front of you right after Joe Biden didn’t use much of any of those techniques so I’m going to predict that some day after the president is end of
[12:33]
some day after the president is end of office even his critics will say that he was the best communicator of any president hands down now there won’t be able to say that until he leaves office because he you know while he’s in office people just tank sides but once he’s out of office I predict that even as critics will say he’s the best communicator we’ve ever seen better than Reagan by far yes by far I would say then apparently Bill Maher has said in public and this this is just mind-boggling you know I’m pretty sure that people who dislike the president see lots of things they think are mind-boggling by supporters of the president so it works both ways and I’m aware of that but from my seat when Bill Maher says he’s been predicting since the beginning that if Trump loses re-election he won’t leave
[13:34]
Trump loses re-election he won’t leave he won’t leave office they he’ll try to stay and become a dictator if he loses the election now i retweeted just before i got on here somebody on twitter said he would take he would take a 1,000 for anybody who wants to bet whether or not the the president will leave so this fellow is betting that the president would leave if it was time to leave [Music] I will probably make that bet - I wouldn’t do it publicly but if I find somebody in my personal life who will bet me a thousand dollars that that Trump will try to stay in office if he loses the election I’m gonna take that back now some of you already know that I
[14:36]
back now some of you already know that I won $500 betting against a Republican who bet that Obama would not only lose re-election for a second term but they he would stay in office and become a dictator so I’ve actually won this bet once American presidents don’t stay in office and try to become dictators it just doesn’t happen and the reason it doesn’t happen even if they wanted to this because it just wouldn’t work even a little bit you know the United States our citizenry or government is so well-trained that there wouldn’t be I don’t think any president could find one I don’t think a president literally could find one aide who would go along with the plant do you do you think a president any president could find even one aide who would say yeah let’s do this I don’t think so why because that Aid has family there’s
[15:39]
why because that Aid has family there’s nobody who doesn’t have family so anybody who has a family knows that if they were the help a president doesn’t matter who the president is if there were to help that president stay in office as a dictator their family would be dead by that afternoon of course of course and this is the thing that everybody always misses about guns because people on the left like to say well you know your little guns will be no use against the weaponry of the military of the United States once you know once the dictatorship is formed you know you can’t compete with the military to which I say nobody’s competing with the military now the mill the people with guns in the United States would go directly after the families they would go after the families of anybody who was in the military on the side of the revolution anybody who was in politics on the side of the revolution they would all be rounded up ten minutes after the after the coup attempt so nobody in the world could be
[16:41]
attempt so nobody in the world could be part of a u.s. revolution unless they were willing to watch their own family be slaughtered I mean it would be it’d be on the internet and about five minutes so I’m not suggesting anybody do any of that stuff I’m just saying that’s how it would go and there’s no way around that and so no there’s no chance of a u.s. president in any any world that looks like our world now it couldn’t happen all right so the polls apparently the polls are suggesting that Biden would destroy President Trump in an election he’d beat him in all those important swing states and even even the other Democrats would beat the president everybody can beat the president according to the polls what does that tell you about the polls doesn’t your common sense tell you that there isn’t any way that those polls could be accurate it’s kind of ridiculous because
[17:41]
accurate it’s kind of ridiculous because the you know there’s nothing like an election that’s actually started yet and there’s no you know whatever opposition research there is that exists on the Democrats hasn’t been dumped yet think about that the opposition research against the Democratic candidates hasn’t even been dumped yet we don’t even know what the election looks like until that got that we also don’t know what other successes and or non successes President Trump will have between now and Election Day so there could be all kinds of stuff happening let me tell you the strongest the strongest argument for reelecting Trump are you ready the strongest argument for reelecting Trump is China because even if we got somebody in who wanted to be tough with China as a Democrat it’s sort of a do-over
[18:42]
a Democrat it’s sort of a do-over if we let China timeout to this president they will timeout the next one - let me say that again if China is allowed to simply weigh down a president who wants to get tough with them and they just say four years is not that long we’ll just wait if he loses reelection it’s only four years we’ll get somebody who’s easier to deal with and then we’ll we’ll go from there so if the citizens in the United States don’t really the president China will win and China knows it and I think you know it - the only way China doesn’t get what it wants in terms of the trade deals and we do is if Trump gets a second term because I don’t think China wants to wait a second term you know because a second term president is going to be pretty tough I don’t think they’re gonna go want to go you know something like eight years or seven years whatever it is without a trade
[19:43]
years whatever it is without a trade deal so that’s the strongest argument if you want the United States to get a good deal with China Trump’s the only waiting to go at this point I saw the news reported that Kamla Harris says that if she gets elected president she’ll try to put Trump in jail meaning that the Department of Justice under her administration would she says presumably pursue whatever against the president now I think she has to say some more provocative yet desperate stuff to get some attention because she’s not getting any attention if if you’ve seen any of Kamala Harris’s tweets they look like they were designed by a cardboard robot if somebody ever made a robot that was made on a cardboard and and thought like a cardboard creature it would make Komal Harris’s tweets
[20:45]
it would make Komal Harris’s tweets they just lay there I’ve never seen there’s so much boringness in her statements and then and in tweets they they literally they just lay there it’s I don’t know if it’s the lawyer in her I don’t think so because other other lawyers seem to do okay I would like to suggest the following thoughts speaking of lawyers speaking of lawyers do you think President Trump could ever lose against somebody who had been a lawyer it seems to me that the last thing the Democrats should do is run a lawyer against Trump if there’s anything that Trump has done more than anything as his career’s beat lawyers who has beaten more lawyers than president Trump nobody he’s like the lawyer Slayer the last thing you want to want to do is run a lawyer against him
[21:46]
want to do is run a lawyer against him [Music] so let’s talk about now I’ve said I don’t think that the Democrats are expecting to win in 2020 they’d like to but I don’t think they expect to so I think that they they probably only want to run a candidate who doesn’t have a good chance of winning in 2024 because they don’t want to ruin a good candidate so you know put that person to the cycle and then have them ruined for 2024 so it looks like it’s just a big old American Idol situation where they’re campaigning for 2024 and it doesn’t matter who they nominate because that person is going to get slaughtered somebody’s asking me to comment about Andrew Yang’s so Andrew yang is interesting and here’s why he seems to be the only person who’s first of all suggesting new ideas that are that actually sound new you know some of the politicians do you know a let’s say a green new deal plan and even though
[22:47]
a green new deal plan and even though it’s new ish it sounds like things you’ve heard before whereas Andrew yang as ideas that you just haven’t even heard I don’t even know if they’re good ideas I can’t tell but I think he’s a valuable contributor to the process so for that reason I’d like to see him get on the debate stage and introduce some new ideas so that we can kick him around and maybe 2024’s looking good by the way andrew yang in 2024 that’s not a bad idea people are asking me about the Jon Stewart thing honestly I watched a clip of the Jon Stewart thing I have you know all the same empathy that you do is it seems that the Democrats and the Republicans actually agree that what Jon Stewart was saying was valid and that the first responders for 9/11 should get
[23:50]
the first responders for 9/11 should get their money to be to be helped throughout their life so there doesn’t seem to be any controversy on the question the what people are talking about is his is Jon Stewart’s passion and his persuasion and his performance I’m sure they were all good because everybody said they were good but there’s not much not much meat there we already knew that Jon Stewart was good now keep in mind what was the thing that Jon Stewart was most famous for the thing he was most famous for as being one of the best persuaders / communicators in the world he was widely understood to be one of the most effective communicators in the world so we kind of missed him because when he you know he left The Daily Show and he dropped out of the news every day you sort of forgot how good he was and it’s the same effect you’re gonna have when
[24:52]
the same effect you’re gonna have when the president ever leaves the office and he will leave the office I’ll bet a thousand dollars someday anyway you’re gonna as soon as Trump is gone you’re gonna have the worst hangover from trying to watch regular politics by regular politicians the the boredom will make your head crackin and explode and Jon Stewart kind of reminded us how good he was at this stuff and that’s that’s about all I’m gonna say about that all right there is an interesting story about a robot that assembles homes and of blocks that snap together like Legos what have I been telling you forever I’ve been telling you that the future of low-cost home building will be blocks this snap together like Legos now there’s a video of a big robot arm that’s that’s
[25:52]
of a big robot arm that’s that’s building the whole house by putting the blocks where they belong and that’s that’s very I would say it was impressive but here’s the thing if you were a low-income person who had the ability or let’s say if you’re a low-income person and you were going to live in a home that could be built by a robot that means it’s going to be a simple home it will almost certainly be one story because it’s you have building codes and problems when you go out the second story and if you were that poor person who could possibly live in a home that was so cheap that a robot could build it in in a few hours wouldn’t you prefer building it yourself and not paying the robot think about it if the blocks simply put snap together you’d want to do most of that work yourself so it seems to me that the the better model would be you you put a neighborhood together you bring the homeowners
[26:52]
together you bring the homeowners together either you maybe after they’ve done their day’s work or something whenever they’re available you train them maybe you have one supervisor you say see this pile of bricks all right today your job is to pick up a brick one at a time put it over here in this wall and all you’re doing today is you’re going to build this wall same as your neighbors they’re building an almost identical over on their plot I’m teaching everybody how to build one wall today that’s all we’re doing hey everybody we just carry these bricks over put them here you built one wall and in a few weeks with no robots whatsoever just one supervisor who’s saying put these bricks here tomorrow I’ll tell you where to run the pipe through the bricks you could build a whole community without a robot at all and that’s got to be cheaper so I think the key is standard plans that can be said see here’s the key you want to have some kind of a set of plans for one-story snap-together bricks that a
[27:57]
one-story snap-together bricks that a one individual working alone could build most of it might be some things such as some plumbing and electrical perhaps that one person can’t do but maybe that too because even the electrical and the plumbing could be kit you know there could be plumbing where things only fit together one way and it’s easy you don’t even need a tool possibly so I think we could get to the point where we can design a a pre approved design that maybe let’s say hypothetically the federal government tells all the states and municipalities that they have to accept as as building code ready any of these structures if they meet the plan the standard plan and then everybody pour can build the house just by just by snapping blick bricks together so I’d say it’s definitely coming I don’t know if the robots are going to be the answer to that or not there’s a report there two interesting
[29:00]
there’s a report there two interesting reports out of North Korea and I don’t know if any of this is coincidence so it seems that there might be elements in the United States or maybe South Korea who might be feeding some fake news to the public so you the first thing you should say about any news about North Korea about you know secret and stuff in North Korea the first thing you should say to yourself is it’s probably fake news doesn’t even matter what it is whatever the story is if it comes out of North Korea and you don’t have a you know a picture and 100/100 credible witnesses just assume it’s not real but the stories coming out are that there are these North Korea executions sites that there are hundreds of places where all these executions have happened and it’s all very horrible and sometimes the children are made to watch and you know at one point there were ceremonial but now they’re used for terror I’m not
[30:02]
now they’re used for terror I’m not going to say that there are no execution sites in North Korea I’m certainly not going to tell you that there have been no executions in North Korea but I wouldn’t believe this story I’m not saying it’s false I’m just saying it’s not credible it doesn’t it doesn’t meet the minimum bar for credibility it’s so on the nose as fake news that it’s probably something exaggerated from something that’s true in other words there might be something true in the sense that there are sites where people are executed it may be less true what the circumstances are of who gets executed how many people have been executed under Kim versus the past so I wouldn’t believe the details but maybe the general idea is true the other story is that the famous story of Kim jong-un ordering the execution of his half-brother you know the story where
[31:03]
half-brother you know the story where the two women touched him and they had different chemicals when the second wouldn’t touched him with it the second chemical he died and she died I guess but now it’s been revealed when I say revealed could be fake news you don’t know that the half-brother was a CIA asset how does that change the story think about it for how long have we been told that Kim jong-un is so evil that he would kill his own half-brother that was the story right where do you think that story came from the CIA right is it not true that the CIA or at least the intelligence services and certainly blessed by the CIA have been telling the public for how long that Kim jong-un is so evil he killed his own half-brother well it looks like he probably did kill his own half-brother but if the news is the current news is true his half-brother was literally a traitorous spy working for the CIA now if that’s
[32:07]
spy working for the CIA now if that’s true that changes the story a little bit doesn’t it because if if a leader is executing a confirmed the spy that’s sort of what leaders do you know maybe we would have put him in jail for life or something but I would expect most countries probably the majority now guess the majority of countries in the world would execute a confirmed spy a traitor I think that’s standard practice so now now think about Kim jong-un from that frame after you’ve been thinking of him in the he’s so bad he would kill his own family member frame who told you that the CIA so so there’s a lot about kim jeong-hoon that maybe just a fake news from the CIA well I think that’s obviously true so the president if I heard his comment right I believe he said that he got a personal letter from Kim jong-un he did not reveal the details but I said he was warm and
[33:08]
details but I said he was warm and friendly his relationship is still good and Trump said he he said two things that are newsworthy one he said he’d like to see North Korea with a Kim jong-un as its leader doing great things with the economy so he said as clearly as possible that his vision Trump’s vision is North Korea with Kim jong-un in charge doing things that are helping his own country I don’t know that we’ve ever said that before and that is probably the important thing to say that’s that what that’s what gets a good relationship the second thing he said is that and I think he was referring to the report that the CIA had turned his half-brother Trump said something like that wouldn’t happened with me in charge in other words he was assuring Kim jong-un that that the you know the bad spying on his regime of flipping his family member would not happen under
[34:12]
family member would not happen under Trump who knows who knows if you can make a commitment for what the CIA will do it wouldn’t be the CIA if we told people what they were doing so I’m not sure you can take that at face value because we’re talking about the CIA all right so yeah it was Brennan’s CIA was it was Brennan in charge when was Brennan in charge when Kim’s half-brother got killed so people are asking me my thoughts on tulsi gabbard I haven’t weighed in on her because I haven’t spent a lot of time looking into her because her polling is low if she if she makes more of a dent in the in the field poll why is all all started talking about her a
[35:12]
is all all started talking about her a little bit but at the moment she’s too low in the polling for me to get too serious all right I’m just looking at your comments alright that’s about all I have for today yeah yesterday’s video is not on periscope there’s a story but it’s not interesting so I’m not going to tell you it but don’t worry about it it’s not nobody got shadow band in terms of that video so the video that is not unpair escaped in the archives you can find it on YouTube in fact you can find any of these any of these periscope sub on youtube if you just search for real coffee with scott adams and that’s where you’ll find out a high-quality replay some people prefer the youtube replay
[36:14]
some people prefer the youtube replay interface alright somebody says Chernobyl is worth watching yeah you know my understanding is that the Chernobyl movie is factually so inaccurate that it might be worse to watch it that not to watch it my understanding is that if you watched it you would come away with probably a permanent sense of fake news in other words you wouldn’t understand what happened at Chernobyl if you watch the Chernobyl miniseries because it is riddled with inaccuracies according to some experts oh yes so there’s a miniseries from I guess Netflix on the Central Park five you all know the story about the Central Park five there were five five young men who were blamed for raping and brutally beating a jogger and Central Park became a big story in 70s
[37:14]
Central Park became a big story in 70s 70s I guess and Trump did a full-page ad in The New York Times saying that maybe bad people should be executed now he didn’t mention the Central Park five but it happened at the same time so people assumed that that’s at least was sparked just thinking about executions they were exonerated exonerated or found not guilty anyway there they were not found guilty for that specific crime and they were released that made people say that President must be all racist because he said that innocent people should be executed and they happened to be black well of course all of that is fake news number one he never mentioned race anytime that he was ever talking about it not directly and not indirectly race he never mentioned he only talked about crime the way he still talks about crime there’s no story there Trump talking about crime and being tough on crime is no different than what he does now and had nothing to
[38:15]
than what he does now and had nothing to do with the ethnicity of the people secondly the there was just a news story recently that the prosecutor so there’s a woman who was the prosecutor for the Central Park five she said that she agreed with the decision to release them for the specific crime of the rape and the beating of that woman but she says that there was plenty of evidence that they had been evolved in assaults and theft and rioting I guess was her word so that the activities in the park of rampant crime there was some amount of evidence that they were they were guilty of unrelated crimes so she was not not in favor of them being released on everything but I guess they’ve been so smeared by the crime they were not committed they had not committed that it looked like justice to release them for the other things I don’t I don’t know maybe that looked like justice at the
[39:15]
maybe that looked like justice at the time I’m not going to judge it because I wasn’t there but it’s fake news that the President did something racist if you look at the facts you don’t see any any even mention of race it’s just about crime and the people who think the Central Park thing was about race are in fact racists because they’re bringing there they’re injecting race where there was none at least in terms of the president’s candidate no I mean pre president Trump’s comments there was an was no discussion race until the racists added it later alright so somebody’s asking me who would I bet on if Justin Bieber fought Tom Cruise because that’s actually a thing Justin Bieber has challenged Tom Cruise to a some kind of a fight in the Octagon I would go with Tom Cruise because I think you have to go with strength over two inches of
[40:20]
go with strength over two inches of height on the skinny guy so my guess would be if Tom Cruise and Justin Bieber fought that Tom Cruise would go directly into his body and finish him off in about a minute and a half I think it would be a short fight I think I don’t know I mean there’s Tom Cruise’s in his 50s but if he’s as fit as he looks it looks like he could just move into his body and just take him apart yeah age matters but it’s not going to matter if if Cruz got his hands on Bieber if they got into a you know a close situation I think it would only go one way alright that’s about all I got for now I’ve got a travel day I’m gonna go home from Vegas today oh let me tell you a story one here a Vegas story so
[41:22]
you a story one here a Vegas story so day before yesterday Christine and I were doing little minor gambling at the casino and when I say minor I mean we don’t we don’t gamble big dollar amounts so Christina goes to the one of the tables and for blackjack and she played 12 hands in a row and if you know anything about blackjack the the house and the player should win around fifty percent of the time so the house wins a little bit more often but it’s close to about half so if you know how to play blackjack you would expect you you’d win about half the time but a little less than half that would be normal right of the hands not you would lose most of the time if you kept playing but on any given hand you would expect to win about half the time a little under half so what do you
[42:22]
time a little under half so what do you think are the odds of losing twelve hands in a row can they then that’s all we played what are the odds that at a table with just the one player Christina and one dealer what are the odds you can lose 12 in a row of course it happens now can somebody calculate the odds on that yeah and somebody somebody do the math and give me the actual number on that how many decks multiple decks but they were using a shuffling machine so the shuffling was somebody said 4,000 to 1.02 percent so it looks like the engineers are weighing in so the odds are 1 in 4,000 okay now so there was a 1 in 4,000 chance that that would happen how many times as as that happened in
[43:23]
how many times as as that happened in the same casino I’ve watched it happen several times in the same casino now not 12 in a row but something like 10 and a 12 loss routinely in this same casino I won’t mention it now here’s the here’s the fun part one of those 12 hands she actually won and the dealer cheated and when I say the dealer cheated it was probably an honest mistake but the dealer the dealer busted which means the dealer lost and then the dealer took Christina’s money and Christina and and he picks up the cards and Christina says wait a minute you lost that hand you just took my money and you lost and the dealers got the cards in his hand he goes no no you know you I beat you fair and square and she goes no call the supervisor over let’s see this on video because they’re video cameras watching every table so the supervisor
[44:26]
watching every table so the supervisor comes over and the the dealer says no I I did a right look and he puts down the cards to show which cards he had and which cards she had except she he takes one of his cards the card that busted him and puts it on her pile and I was I was watching so I know that what he did because he when he picked him up he had to mixed up and when he puts him down he puts him in the wrong order so the supervisor comes over and she looks at the cars and she goes well no he won look at the cards and I said those are not the cards he put his card on her pile so she was polite and professional but it was obvious that she didn’t believe us so so I said well play it back in the video let’s see so they play it back in the video we had to wait like five minutes for them to get the replay in play it and of course of course they reversed it and they apologized profusely said oh we’re so sorry you’re
[45:29]
profusely said oh we’re so sorry you’re a hundred percent right you know they saw it the way we described it and they reversed it so we won so Christine’s lost 12 hands in a row but one of them wasn’t even a loss but they still played it in losses and but here’s my interpretation of what happened this dealer had just basically he’d won something like 11 in a row against one player there was only one person at the table when the 12th one happened he was so conditioned to winning every single hand that he couldn’t even count in other words he didn’t even imagine that she could win it wasn’t in his I don’t even think his mental model allowed that she could win a hand so when he lost he just collected the money just like the other 11 times it was sort of freaky so so we said to ourselves we have never seen anybody win in this casino it’s a high-end casino it’s one
[46:29]
casino it’s a high-end casino it’s one of the good ones so he said let’s walk all the way to the inexpensive part of town where the odds are better and see if we can win over there so we took a long walk through the 100 degree heat to get some exercise and we end up that the let’s say a lower end casino on the far end of town so we play the slot machines where we’ve lost basically every penny we put in at the other casino just was like a reverse ATM so we sit down at this slot machine in this other casino and next thing you know we’d make 800 like in five minutes so we’re like oh my god we won nothing at that of the casino so we take our $800 and we say what’ll happen at the blackjack table so Christina goes to blackjack table and Gamble’s for I don’t know 45 minutes or an hour or something
[47:30]
know 45 minutes or an hour or something like that comes out ahead just a little bit but she Gamble’s for an hour wins more than she loses and you know we called it a night so the difference between the casino and the the poor end of town and the casino about the rich end I’m not going to say that the games are fixed I will just say that the experience of it is identical to as if the games were fixed so I want to be careful about that I’m not alleging I’m not alleging that said casino that I’m not mentioning has fixed the games I’m just saying that I don’t know how to explain it except the the weirdest set of coincidences that seem to happen every time we come here I mean it could be a coincidence every time so I don’t know how to explain but that was the experience anyway no guessing on
[48:35]
was the experience anyway no guessing on the name of the casino that wouldn’t be fair because as I say there there’s nothing here that I can confirm in any way just the experience of it is as if one of the casinos was legitimate and the other was not but I’m sure that if somebody checked into it it would all be fine did she play perfect a basic strategy yeah I mean we did the hit on the right times and don’t we hit on the wrong time stuff all right I will talk to you all tomorrow