Episode 520 Scott Adams: Iran, China, North Korea, Border, Biden
Date: 2019-05-06 | Duration: 40:11
Topics
Where are the immigration reform plans? How will those reforms affect lives of Americans? Crime reduction, less rapes and murders? GDP, wages? Build a wall…isn’t a complete immigration plan Less rapes and murder, less drugs, higher wages… …that’s what people want Where is the comprehensive plan for all that? A wall alone, isn’t a complete solution High level negotiations One walk-away at a minimum For a while, it will always look like no deal is possible Chinese and American negotiators are all top-shelf…and adults It will be a REALLY tough process, but a deal will happen President Trump deserves a lot of credit for how he FRAMES NK situation is an OPPORTUNITY for them Personal, friendly relationship with Chairman Kim People make decisions based on CONTRAST Contrast is a major influence on decision making Bernie is a unique contender, nobody is like Bernie Kamala also has unique contender qualities Biden…has NO unique contender qualities…versus Trump Watching Biden, you reflect on how Trump “does it better” When President Trump calls Biden “dumb”…is he wrong? Rapid iteration with a large amount of variables is VERY difficult AI will resolve that problem, allowing rapid iteration Rapid iteration is what’s required for fusion power progress
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> [!note] Rough Transcript
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> This is an auto-generated transcript and may contain errors.
## Transcript
[0:08]
oh hey Jake come on in here Joanne you're early good to see ya everybody grab your coffee I know a lot of you are still tired because you were you were up late last night watching Game of Thrones if you're not a fan of Game of Thrones you are so sick of hearing those references or Geoff well I know something you're not sick of this little thing called simultaneous up and it's coming at you pretty soon like real soon if you've got a cup or a mug or a glass some kind of steiner jealous or tankard maybe a thermos or a flask fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee join me now please for the simultaneous it oh yeah so I will continue to watch in amazement at the unparalleled incompetence which is our government specifically in the immigration area and I've decided what
[1:11]
immigration area and I've decided what it is that I want as a citizen and one of the great things about social media is that we citizens can say hey government this is what I want you to do and if other people think that's a good idea then the other people say yeah I like that that's a good idea and if enough people say it the government probably will respond so there is a direct path from an individual with a good idea or even a good question and the government but it has to go through this filter of lots of other people agreeing that that's a good question or a good point or worthy of discussion so I'm going to toss out an idea an idea to get us past the the log jam which is our bad immigration system and it looks like this if you are in a corporation and you had a plan you would have to show that
[2:11]
had a plan you would have to show that if
if spend this much money you plan to get the following benefits so you'd say to your boss if you give me a million dollars I'll cut costs by 10% and I'll have my yeah you know production will be ready on this date whatever it is so give me this much money I will give you this many results now that's not the only option you could do Plan B which is give me half a million I'll give you as many results but I'll tell you what you'll get or they do nothing if you give me nothing this is what you'll get where the hell is that well why is it that you and I have have been you know tortured with stories of immigration it's not like we're the ones we're having the bad time let's let's put our empathy with the people we're trying thinking across the border and having you know huge problems so empathy goes with that but you and I as citizens
[3:12]
goes with that but you and I as citizens we're being a little bit abused in a political sense a smaller way but we're being abused by our own government by lack of competence now here I'm not specifically calling out the Trump administration but I do think they have the primary responsibility Congress can't let them do whatever they want so it's not really entirely up to the administration but here's what they should be doing the Trump administration should be giving us as the bullet point plans to say if you give me this much money I will give you this much cried if you give me this much money I'll tell you how many people are coming across and what it will do to wages at the bottom end if you give me this much budget I'll tell you what the unemployment rate is likely to be among the people that are competing for jobs
[4:13]
the people that are competing for jobs if you give me this much I will tell you how many children have to be separated from their parents if you give me this budget I'll tell you how many people will be raped in the coming year an estimate but that's that's what plans are their estimates where's that well how come the how come why is it there we the citizens have been subjected to non-stop talk about immigration and nobody has shown us the frickin plan or plans why is it that I can't pick the amount of crime that I'm okay with and the budget that matches it why can't I have an opinion on that it's because nobody's presented me that plan beg it break it down to maybe three bullet points you know to just show the plans this is the Democrats do nothing planned or maybe it's the Democrats do something just for the do something just for the
[5:15]
just for the do something just for the immigrants coming in who need to be not separated and need to be cared for so there could be one plan that's just a humanitarian plan that says try to keep everybody healthy but don't try too hard to stop the number of people coming in so that would be sort of a what a Democrat plan would look like heavy on the humanitarian light on fighting the crime let's see that plan how many rapes do we get with that how many murders are we likely to get with a Democrat plan over five years what would the Republican alternative look like how much extra would we have to pay for the Republican alternative and according to the best people who can estimate these kinds of things I'm not sure exactly who would be but according to them what would we get if we threw two billion dollars at the border would it get us from a hundred and twenty-five thousand rapes down to 75 thousand in
[6:15]
thousand rapes down to 75 thousand in it's still horrific by any by any measure but wouldn't you choose you choose half if you could choose so if you believe that there's something like difficulty making a decision in the government there's nothing like that happening there's no difficulty in making a decision because there's no decision being considered let me say that as clearly as possible if you think the government is having difficulty making a decision that's not what you're watching you're watching no options being presented if you just see oh give me a budget for a wall well you're you're a citizen right what does a wall give you don't tell me how much wall I'm gonna get tell me how much rape I'm gonna get tell me how minute how many murders I'm gonna get tell me how many people who are citizens are not going to get a job at the lower end because they have to compete tell me
[7:18]
end because they have to compete tell me how many big companies will say agricultural companies tell me how they're how they help or hurt the GDP based on different levels of immigration there can't be that many bullet points so we should be able to say this budget gets you this set of benefits this budget gets you this set of benefits if you're not presenting that you're not doing anything am I wrong is there anybody who disagrees with my statement that if the government has not presented to us with budgets and what each of those budgets would do they're not even working on the problem whatever they're doing might take a lot of energy they might be paying people to do things and go to meetings but they're certainly not doing anything like working on the immigration there's nothing like that happening I don't see it coming from the administration and I don't see it come from the other side so let's stop
[8:20]
from the other side so let's stop pretending that one of them has the right idea we can't pretend that Trump has the right idea on immigration when you haven't seen it build a wall isn't a freaking plan that's not a plan dude whoever whoever woke up in the morning and said you know what would make my life better is I'd love to see more construction along a desolate area of the country on the board yeah unlike a wall no nobody wants a wall they want less rape they want better economy they might want you know a number of things like involving with crime and economics they might want for drugs they might want all those things but nobody wants a wall why the hell are they selling us a wall why is Trump selling me a wall I don't want a wall I don't want a wall you don't want to wall
[9:21]
don't want a wall you don't want to wall either if you think you want a wall what's wrong with you you don't want a wall you want less crime less ray less tragedies you know fewer crises on the border better economics show us what that looks like for the money that you want us to spend stop jacking us around there's no stupid plan it's just making me mad now all right somebody says I what a wall well if you believe that the wall is that is the is the end state like the that you want a wall for no reason other than you want a wall I would suggest you're not a credible player in this conversation let's talk about something else there's one thing that I say often and it it always applies especially in the world of Trump that a proper negotiation at a high level you know when when top players are negotiating
[10:22]
when when top players are negotiating some of the things you should expect to say well two things you should always expect to see you should see at least one walk away every time you you should expect that there will always be one major walk away and it will look like it's not going to work out the second thing you should always expect is that there will be some point where it looks like there's no way it can work you should always look like there's no way you're ever going to get a deal and as soon as everybody feels that both sides when both sides realize that their other option is to not have a deal and that's going to be really really bad once they capitulate and suddenly sort of give in to the idea that no deal could be made then they can make a deal they they have to give up incomplete you know that to completely give up their idea that they're going to get their version of the deal and until that's done you don't get a deal where both
[11:22]
done you don't get a deal where both people both sides hurt a little bit but they get a little bit so the reason that's important is we're looking at it China and the president has made some scary sounding threats about raising the tariffs on Chinese goods from 10% to 25% which would be super expensive for them and the idea is that people are saying wait a minute wait a minute I thought we were getting close to a deal well apparently not apparently we're not we were not as close to a deal as we thought so I would say do not despair if the stock market takes a takes a dump for a while temporarily do not despair if the news tells you that no deal could be made when you're when you're dealing with China and the United States the one thing you can be sure of is that you're dealing with adults you know you could
[12:24]
dealing with adults you know you could say say whatever you want about the Chinese selling us fentanyl say whatever you want to go and I do say a lot about that say whatever you will about Chinese stealing our intellectual property and you know trying to dominate the South China Sea either I accept all of the criticisms about China as being true or true enough but if there's one thing we can all agree on there are adults China is sort of the adult in the room maybe sometimes even more than the United States I think but they have a long-term view they are operating for what appears to be Chinese best interests so at least they're predictable in that way and predictable is good you want predictable and they seem to be smart and engaged and and all those things now the United States same thing you know we're not sending our we didn't send the b-team you know nobody sent the people who had nothing else to do to negotiate with
[13:27]
nothing else to do to negotiate with China so you have a lot of adults in the room who are pushing as hard as they can and they know how to do this stuff so it would not be unusual to see something that looks like a complete breakdown of the China trade talks even if you thought we were this close to the end it would be completely normal for trade talks to blow up and be you know everybody go home and say that it's all over I don't know that we'll get there but if we do completely normal the thing you don't need to worry about is that either the United States or China will in the end act irrationally because there is just no no real risk that the Chinese government which is adults and the US government which is despite what you say about the some might say about the president there are adults they are gonna figure out how to get this done might not be as quickly as you want it
[14:28]
might not be as quickly as you want it may not be exactly the deal you were hoping for but they're gonna get it done one way or the other I wouldn't worry about it all right watching with with interest and by the way this the same conversation applies to North Korea North Korea's you know testing some missiles blah blah but here's the thing North Korea no longer has a reason to point their missiles at us you know it's easy to lose sight of the fact that North Korea is largely already solved because it's not that countries have nuclear weapons what matters is if they have a reason to point them at us and president Trump has completely removed Kim jong-un's incentive to point any nuclear weapons at us now I don't know if he's actually deprogrammed his computers or whatever you need to do to make sure
[15:28]
you need to do to make sure nooks are not really pointed at the United States but I'm pretty sure he doesn't have a reason to send them our way it just doesn't have a reason and and because the president very wisely he's consistently framed the North Korean thing as an opportunity have you seen that it's really clever and I don't think the president gets the kind of credit he deserves when he does the the good framing the way the president has framed North Korea is Kim jong-un is my friend a personal friend and we like and respect each other amazing that is amazingly powerful because it almost eliminates the risk of nuclear war and Trump did that by himself like just by himself nobody even needed to help he tweeted a few times he set up a meeting I mean people helped set up the meeting but really it's a hundred percent
[16:29]
but really it's a hundred percent president Trump making friends with this one person Kevin John moon and successfully they're actually they're betting their buddies somebody says I'm being naive what I'm not being is naive about the fact that people don't nuke people they're getting along with it just doesn't happen to the other part that the president has done well is instead of talking about it as you know a our army versus your army he stopped talking that way he talks about their economic huge opportunity it's like oh I hope you know I sure like Kim jong-un I know we can work this out it's gonna be great for your economy that is a really really really good Chamberlain I think I'm just going to start laughing at Hitler analogies like it's hard because they make you angry but whenever somebody makes a Hitler analogy I just
[17:29]
somebody makes a Hitler analogy I just want to declare victory and whatever point I'm trying to make and walk away I've said this before but there there are some things you should never make an analogy to because there's nothing like all right there's nothing like the Holocaust there was only one Holocaust I mean there have been other mass murders and you know horrific but there's nothing really like the Holocaust there's nothing really like hillard World War two I mean you can make analogies all day long but they would just be different different situations yeah anyway I wouldn't worry too much about North Korea we'll get there the for some reason Kim jong-un is satisfied with the restrictions on his milk on his economy but probably now forever so North Korea is probably limping by and they have an opportunity to do great instead so I think they'll take great let's talk about Iran so I
[18:32]
take great let's talk about Iran so I guess the US has moved a strike force into the into the region so we moved another carrier strike force I think it was and that's mostly just to send a message apparently there's some some intelligence suggesting that North Korea was getting ready to do something aggressive somehow attack American interests and who knows if that's true but sounds like the government is pretty confident about it or at least they're acting that way so the apparently the Iranian economy is in a freefall and the latest round of sanctions are going to eliminate the last places that they can sell oil and I think that this is brings into stark relief set the set the way and I mean that may be the wrong phrase but we can see obviously now the economic war is a better war than
[19:35]
economic war is a better war than military war it seems to me that we had two choices with Iran military and economic I mean three choices if you count doing nothing but I'm almost positive we're gonna get to the same place with economic war with Iran as we as we could with military war but without all the dead people now there will still be dead people because poverty does kill and the US is inflicting greater poverty on Iran than would otherwise be there so people will die but if you were to compare the you know the military versus the economic option I think the economic option will work every time won't it whereas the military option it's hard to make that work especially if you're trying to conquer and hold territory it's almost impossible to to hold territory these days because it's too easy to for for bad people sneak weapons
[20:37]
easy to for for bad people sneak weapons into a country and have a guerrilla force that's effective the death rate still holds it a hundred percent that's true we're all dying alright isn't sending ships more of a military option well as long as we don't fire all it is is presenting to Iran the two choices so you want to make sure that the there's a real difference between the options that it has one option is stop being so much trouble and things will go well and the other option is of course total physical destruction which is what the strike force tells them all right
I saw a poll that I don't believe yet but did somebody see a poll this morning that Bernie passed Biden on the polling for the Democrat nomination is that true
[21:38]
for the Democrat nomination is that true I saw it and then I didn't see it in the headlines I just started passing can anybody confirm that there's a new poll showing Bernie I had a Biden because that would be a fairly enormous swing so I see one yes fake poll somebody says there are two polls are no longer reliable let me just do a quick google here or a Google search poll Ernie Biden yeah that all I see is that Biden is leading Sanders by a lot Oh in a Mersenne poll that was April 16th now I was getting polls that looks like a fake poll so I guess that was a fake poll Sony said milk to their politics
[22:39]
Sony said milk to their politics let's try yeah whoops real clear yes Bell all that eggs oh but let's see see the top top one here polling dad Biden yeah it's too hard to find so I can't find it but here's here's my take on Biden if you watch Biden doing his stump speech you've probably all seen by now several clips of his most recent one and have you noticed that he doesn't match up well the thing that you have to understand when you're watching the potential matchups is that people make decisions based on contrasts so so
[23:40]
decisions based on contrasts so so contrast is going to make your decision for you you think you're making a decision but really you're being influenced into your decisions by what contrast is being presented so for example the real estate agent will often show you a terrible house that you can afford so that when the agent shows you the one you you wish you didn't have to spend that much but it's a nice house it seems so much better than the one you looked at that was so bad so once contrast is set up in your mind you're manipulated into decisions so don't think of yourself as making decisions think of yourself as being subjected to different kind types of contrasts and it's the contrast that makes the decision it's not really you so when I look at Bernie versus Trump what's the contrast bernie is his own thing there's there's no other politician like Bernie wouldn't wouldn't you agree have you ever seen the politician who you would say oh yeah
[24:42]
politician who you would say oh yeah this one has liked Bernie Sanders not really he's his own special character which I like I have a lot of respect for Bernie by the way I don't like his math if you were good at math I might support him but his policies just don't add up now Trump likewise is not like anybody else you don't you doesn't compare to anybody else good or bad he's just his own thing so if you imagine Bernie versus Trump those are just two people who were their own thing and that could be a good fight okay likewise imagine calmly Aras running against running against drop they're so different you know once a woman once a person of color one is Trump you know they're so different they would look at them as individuals and that's that's a good good contrast so that would the contrast would not be making the decision for people it would be a fair fight now consider Biden versus Trump I
[25:46]
fight now consider Biden versus Trump I don't know if you see it yet Biden versus Trump Biden is what happens if you take away all of trumps good characteristics if you take away Trump's personality his provocation his risk-taking his business experience his experience as being president frankly you take away his his tweeting skills his social media skills his sense of humor if you take away all those things that people like about Trump you get Biden and when and it becomes super super clear when you watch a Biden give his little Trump's his stump speech because when you watch by give us the speech you are immediately imagining Trump doing it better did you see it yep when you watch Biden you immediately just automatically
[26:48]
you immediately just automatically imagine Trump doing that same thing better you can't you can't get it out of your head because the matchup is so is so devastating for Biden Biden is is what Trump would be if Trump were really sick all right and you can't get that out of your head but if you watched Trump's act and then you watch Bernie Zach you wouldn't have that feeling you would say Oh Bernie is just being Bernie there's nobody like it you can't say bernie is half of some other bernie or twice as good as another barney there's only one Bernie likewise there's only one kumla Harris but Biden there is another one of those there is a Biden there's an improved Biden there's the Biden that you that if everything were better if he were smarter if he were stronger if he had more balls if he you know if Biden
[27:49]
more balls if he you know if Biden had fewer gaffes if you more interesting if he understood it persuasion better if you could improve all those things about Biden well he'd be kind of a Trump so that's my statement and I could stick with it if if Biden becomes the nominee which by the way I do not predict so I could be wrong in this but I'm not predicting Biden will make it to the end zone to even get the nomination he is the most destroyable candidate by far have you noticed that that Trump always calls him dumb he calls him stupid I'm pretty sure he means that I think that I think Trump genuinely believes again I can't read minds but I think that's his actual opinion I think his actual opinion is the Biden is not very smart and have we seen a voice in Trump's say
[28:49]
and have we seen a voice in Trump's say that about too many other people I mean I'm sure he's called other people down I mean I know for sure that that's happened but does Trump call Bernie dumb nope does Trump call Carla Harris dumb nope does Trump call Cory Booker who has impressive credentials dumb nope does Trump call Budaj dumb nope yeah yeah Maxine Waters he calls dumb but when Trump calls somebody dumb you can kind of see it alright that's that's not a random insult when he calls Biden dumb you can kind of even if you're Pro Biden you say yourself well is that wrong I don't know that that's wrong so I never do our Biden's IQ is obviously he's done
[29:51]
do our Biden's IQ is obviously he's done well in life he did go to law school but apparently finished toward the bottom of his his class I don't know if that's important or not but when I watch Biden in public he doesn't seem smart do any of you have the same impression am I the only one who's that who thinks that Biden actually just doesn't seem that bright when he talks that's very unusual because there are a lot of politicians that I would now support and don't like but they're certainly smart Hillary Clinton is a good example did you ever see Trump even once have you ever seen Trump oh I shouldn't say this because baby somebody has an example but also let me let me make this not an absolute I don't believe Trump spent much time calling Hillary Clinton Dobb why Hillary Clinton is not dumb she's very very
[30:53]
Clinton is not dumb she's very very smart now she wasn't smart enough to win as it turns out but he didn't call her dumb and I'm pretty sure if he thought she was dumb we would have heard it now he may have said it about some specific topic but there's no way in the world that Trump actually believes that Hillary Clinton is dumb that's there's no way he believes that buddy certainly seems to believe it with Biden so I think that's important and I'm repeating myself too much in part because I don't have as much to talk about today because the whole world is going just great I don't know if you saw a tweet then I sent out about a some quick iteration of fusion technology so we're seeing we're seeing some let me give this in context as we're trying to predict the future of climate change and and all that the thing that's hard to predict if you're making an 80-year prediction about the
[31:54]
making an 80-year prediction about the climate of the earth is what surprises happened and sometimes you can smell a surprise coming before you know for sure it's coming and one of the ways you can smell it is that as you know we've been trying to solve fusion for decades and decades and fusion is always the thing that's always coming another 10 years we're going to have a fusion power you know no nuclear waste infinite power yay everything solved another 10 years and then 10 years come and you say well another 10 years but something changed recently or is about to change where we're on the cusp of that change and it's AI so what I learned about Fusion is that when they run a specific test and they're trying to create more energy than they're putting out that there are so many variables in play the human beings are not good at figuring out okay we tried this and we also try this but
[32:55]
we tried this and we also try this but we really can't tell which was the better try there's so many variables that you don't even know if trying this was even better than this it's hard to tell so it's hard to iterate toward an improved thing if there are so many variables but turns out that artificial intelligence and machine learning and I suppose you could you can skip the overlap in those might get us to the point where the computers can look at all of these variables and make sense of it and they can say okay this test got you this outcome with a set of variables and that is closer to where you want to be than this other test with all these variables so here's my point fusion might have been this is slow slow slow development slow slow slow where it would take not just 10 more years but a thousand more years because it in there is sort of like Zeno's paradox you know every every year we get we close the gap by half as much but if you only go half
[33:57]
by half as much but if you only go half as much you can never actually get there it feels like fusion is like that but if AI improves and specifically the form of AI that would be helpful in sorting out the fusion variables you could reach a point where suddenly AI gets to a point they can drive the fusion and suddenly the learning curve changes by a factor of a thousand or something so my point is that you could have marginal to no progress on fusion for 50 years in a row but the day that you get AI that can really sort out the difference between the tests you might be almost at the end point so you could go from no progress to bang we got it just by having AI now the AI is not ready but the AI almost certainly will be ready within 10 years [Laughter]
[34:58]
[Laughter] sounds funny even when I say it because I know how many times people have been wrong about fusion but it's worth pointing out that the AI part of it has never been the case in the past so there might be something very different about it all right I don't have much else to say is there anything else happening did I get James Woods phone number yeah somebody online was asking me to interview James Woods here on periscope and I said do you have his phone number because I can't reach him he's not on Twitter if you know what I mean talking about loser thing so my book loser think I'm doing the copy edit phase for those of you who are curious about the the author or publishing process so I wrote my drafts they went through a few iterations of editing with my publisher slash editor and now I'm at the final stage in which a copy editor which is a
[36:01]
stage in which a copy editor which is a different level of editing where they're looking at sentence structure and choice of words and some fact-checking you know minor fact-checking and so now I have to read my entire book this week and say yes or no to all the changes and man is it humbling there is I tell you it is it is a humbling experience it is a humbling experience to be copy edited because the number of words I have used incorrectly is shocking the other shocking thing is how often the copy editor is changing my proper English to improper improper English and I did say that correctly the number of times they're taking my proper sentences and turning them to improper for example you know you should not end a sentence with a proposition preposition don't end it with a proposition either but in a number of cases I would write around
[37:02]
number of cases I would write around that so I was not ending a sentence with of for example and then my copy editor would change it back to incorrect now when I say incorrect I don't mean that I mean that there are things that have moved into common usage that works better with my style of writing so so I'm seeing a few situations in which my writing got a little formal because I was trying to write in the you know the specifically proper way but the rest of my writing is not that formal so it was sort of stick out so the copy editor puts them back in the same forum and makes it a little more common usage and it reads better somebody says I speak more formally than others is that true I would not expect that to be true but I guess it depends what others you're preparing me to all right I and I
[38:04]
you're preparing me to all right I and I use conjunctions at the start of a sentence now - well I've always done that I like sentences starting with and and bakht if that's what you're talking about living high quality lifestyle off-grid with Tesla technology so somebody's living off the grid with Tesla technology I assume that means you have a battery running your house separate battery I'd be very interested to hear about that compared to people who say how come yeah I was earlier in this periscope I said how come instead of why and as soon as I said it I wasn't really sure if it was inappropriate or if it was some hillbilly sort of affectation that I picked up when I was young because where I live if you were to have a conversation with the people in the town that I grew up with they
[39:06]
in the town that I grew up with they would not have good grammar if I may say that charitably somebody has a Tesla solar plus battery for house for about thirty thousand after tax breaks hmm I would have lots of questions about that
so somebody else says I grew up saying how come instead of why when when I hear it my ear is turning how come into sort of a country or
it doesn't feel like proper English but maybe this yeah I'm not gonna say how come is wrong I'm just saying that I don't know if it's as right as why all right Game of Thrones I'm not going to talk about that it's too boring for the people who haven't watched it you know I'm going to talk to you later bye for
[40:10]
I'm going to talk to you later bye for now