Episode 488 Scott Adams: My Assange Prediction
Date: 2019-04-11 | Duration: 15:31
Topics
CNN, FOX not yet sure if it’s better for their team to love or hate Assange
Assange + Trump more likely to make a deal than any other POTUS
What does Assange know, that nobody else knows?
Assange previously offered juicy info that benefits Trump
Legal ploy and no jail time for Assange, in exchange for info?
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> [!note] Rough Transcript
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> This is an auto-generated transcript and may contain errors.
## Transcript
[0:07]
hey everybody come on in here coming to you today from my car couldn't wait so I'm in the parking lot at my gym getting ready to go in and I thought I would give you a quick prediction related to Julian Assange and it's a one of these really rare situations where you have a clean set up for a prediction because sometimes you know you have these complicated situations where you could make a prediction and then you know you wouldn't really know if which variables really mattered in the end but here's the situation so the the pickup of Julian Assange is a situation like maybe I can't think of ever seen before and what makes it different is that number one it doesn't conform to either political party's brand in other words the whole Assange situation is political and yet we're not entirely sure which
[1:10]
and yet we're not entirely sure which side we're supposed to be on what was the last time you saw that all right so hold that thought the other thing about it is that it doesn't look like anything we've ever seen before the closest thing is some people might say well I mean I've heard stories of spies but that's not really what's going on here or is it we don't know so its uniqueness gives us no historical pattern to guide our thoughts but here's the fun part we also don't have a team guide we don't know which side were supposed to be on and so you've seen the entire country going crazy trying to quickly figure out what side they're on now I think that by maybe tonight by the later opinion shows I think you might see some sides forming and so here's the prediction that if you talk to anybody
[2:10]
prediction that if you talk to anybody about the Assange situation and the next 24 hours opinions are just gonna be all over the place because for the first time the first time you've ever seen it the media has not yet assigned your opinion that's what's different I don't I can't think of another example because it's so fresh that the media has not decided Ric and then our take on this is going to be X all right Fox News this is the way we're going on this this is the conservative view this is what our audience would like we don't know yet and I don't know if they know yet so it might be all over the board for a bad day but inevitably they're gonna star a be testing towards something like a position that their audience responds to and they're gonna figure it out quickly because they can see what gets clicks every time they put a story out there look at the headlines and they say ooh
[3:12]
look at the headlines and they say ooh this one that was anti Assange got a lot of clicks but maybe only on CNN maybe a similar headline over at Fox News on their website gets half as many clicks so I think you're go see that the media will line up toward unified but opposite points of view and when they do all of those independent opinions that you used to see are going to start merging into the two sides and you've never seen this in real time that you know it's unfolding as we're as we're watching so that's the prediction you'll see random opinions converging into real time because the news organizations can test what their audience wants to see and that will become the opinion that they solidify on and then magnify out so that they'll be assigning positions to people who have not yet to had positions but are on that team that's what to look for
[4:13]
are on that team that's what to look for and correct me if I'm wrong but I have you ever seen anything like this at least that dynamic that people don't already have an obvious predetermined pre-assigned position we just now we're we're totally in the fog of war on this so we have no idea where this will go we don't know if anything we've heard is true usually you know 48 hours from now you should assume you're gonna hear things that you thought were true that aren't etc so let's just talk about a few things the same true right now just for fun what is when I listen to Pompeyo talk about WikiLeaks being an organization that's acting like a forward intelligent enemy he seems like he's telling you the way he really feels in other words it's a very emotional and genuine looking so
[5:15]
a very emotional and genuine looking so when he talks about you know wanting to stop WikiLeaks this is Mike Pompeo that looks real to me that looks like his actual opinion so I'm gonna say that in all likelihood there are members of the Trump administration who really want to take Assange down and really want to take WikiLeaks down and maybe even for some of them it feels it feels kind of personal but I'm gonna say another obvious thing which is it's unlikely that everybody agrees and the person who is least likely to end up on that same position which is crucifying Assange the person least likely to end up there is President Trump and here's what for president Trump's perspective no matter how directly or indirectly he was involved in making a this happened you assume he approved it um but you don't know if he was driving it or just going
[6:16]
know if he was driving it or just going along with it so we'll find out that stuff later but this is my isn't it weird that he hasn't weighed in because until the president way their ways in Fox News doesn't know what to agree with and the CNN doesn't know what to disagree with so it could be that the point that matters is the very first tweet from the president this seems to lean in one direction about messange so that gives everybody something to agree with or disagree with and that probably won't determine the the two teams so I think maybe everybody's gotta wait for that and it would be brilliant for Trump to not respond you know that the guy who understands the show better than anybody ever has I think he understands that this is one of those situations were going quiet on this topic we'll build suspense and it could be fascinating just to watch what happens if he just
[7:16]
just to watch what happens if he just stays quiet just on this topic it doesn't have to be forever it could be a day it could be two days but it would be interesting for him to stay quiet on this just to see what happens yeah here if I were Trump and I were a deal maker by Nature and I was strategic by Nature I would say that you had just gained leverage over Assange and if you suspected that maybe Russia had leverage over him or nobody had leverage over him this would be an upgrade because now the United States has leverage over somebody who knows a lot of stuff now if you were Trump what is your best play here your best play is since Assange has in the past seemed a little bit pro-trump meaning that you know Trump and Assange are more likely to make a deal than the
[8:17]
are more likely to make a deal than the sons plus anybody because the song has been unambiguously as far as I could tell kind of Pro dropped and he's also floated the idea of a pardon for in exchange for information pretty soon president Trump will maybe even be in the room with him who knows I mean anything could happen I'm sure the intelligence people would strongly advise against that but that's Trump you can do what he wants if you were Trump wouldn't you put yourself in the same room with Julian Assange pretty quickly come on wouldn't you you're the president you can
can any damn thing you want you know you can at least in this context you would put yourself in the room with them and you make sure nobody else was listening I sure would be that would be close to the first thing I do yeah I know every smart person would say don't do that I'd still do it anyway but whether or not the president does that maybe we should be
[9:17]
president does that maybe we should be happy if he followed expert opinion which I assume would tell him not to do that for a variety of reasons but the president has the ability now to find out some percentage of what Julian Assange knows that nobody else knows and how valuable is that going to be well who knows because maybe he doesn't know anything we don't know but there's a good chance that even on topics we don't even know we're in the news there's a good chance that Julian Assange knows some really really helpful things for Trump now let me ask you this if Trump were to ultimately let's say not pardon Assange people would blame Trump for prosecuting it it's his administration he could pardon pardon him he could stop it he could make a deal so they will blame him so the president will end up
[10:18]
blame him so the president will end up taking the blame or the credit for no matter what happens let's say Assange is pardoned in return for valuable information would anybody not vote for the president because of that well maybe a few hardcore intelligence people you have people close to that community but the general public would just hear Trump made a deal he got something and we don't really care what happens to Assange the country got something it won so I think people would not change their vote because it but now let's look at the other way let's say let's say that let's say the Trump went hard and Assange and just tricking locked him up even wall Assange was at least as far as the public now was offering to make a deal and having something that a song sense is worth training would the public be okay with that if they if what they saw was not
[11:21]
that if they if what they saw was not everything that could be seen because the public doesn't know all the good stuff you know the stuff under the hood but the public would see trumped coming down hard on the sons and and they would think it wasn't necessary because it would look like Assange had something to bargain with that would cost him votes wouldn't it so the fact that they brought him in on what looks like a light charge which I understand the the jail time involved for somebody who didn't have priors for the charge could be a zero jail that's right we may have laundered Assange let me say that again this may be a messange laundering operation meaning an intentional process to put him through the legal system and have him come out the other end with no jail so that so that he gets something
[12:24]
jail so that so that he gets something well would he offer in return what would he offer in return now my guess is that this is not all thought out in advance I don't think that there's anybody in the administration who has a master plan you know including at the beginning and the end of this whole process and where they wanted to end up I don't think that's case I think it's probably a bunch of people pursuing the law as they think they should doing their jobs having different opinions about Assange and what should happen having different political opinions so it's probably just a whole bunch of people with different opinions how many of those different opinions matter only one it's probably only one person who matters Trump and Julian Assange everybody else would only matter if those two people didn't feel like mattering for some in other words if the president didn't
[13:25]
in other words if the president didn't weigh in well then he wouldn't matter but if he does he's the only one that matters so you know I have to look at anything except what is good for Trump coming down hard on the signs when it looks like maybe there was some deal some information to be had would look like a political mistake to me because it would cost votes that way but it wouldn't cost him votes to make a deal that people just wouldn't like but they would not vote for him because of it so that's my political opinion on that anyway so I wanted to put out the prediction that until Trump speaks it's going to be hard for the media to take sides and you can see more more weird varied all over the map opinions and you've ever seen on the political topic because people's opinions have not yet been assigned and
[14:26]
opinions have not yet been assigned and as soon as they are assigned and it'll happen the moment that Trump makes an opinion on this then you're gonna see people take sides quickly and when you watch it in real time it will fascinate you to see how quickly the population can be brainwashed so this is sort of a national brainwashing experiment you've never seen a sign up like this before where there's no historical pattern to look at that's like the Assange situation and we don't already have an opinion that matches up Democrat versus Republican we it's just so rare and yet it's a very political thing think of one other situation like that so you can watch in real time how people struggle to have an opinion and then the media will eventually take their cue from the president they'll take sides and then they will assign the opinions it's gonna be fun to watch all right that's all for
[15:28]
be fun to watch all right that's all for now