Episode 391 Scott Adams: Who Won the Border Security Negotiations
Date: 2019-01-26 | Duration: 26:05
Topics
What we need and where, now up to the experts, not politicians
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> [!note] Rough Transcript
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> This is an auto-generated transcript and may contain errors.
## Transcript
[0:21]
hello hello hello hello hello sorry I didn't mean to actually be broadcasting already but my finger slipped and when my finger slipped we went live so here I am all
right see if I can make that message go away so um I've been watching watching the coverage I'm sort of in my spare time I'm doing something else today but I've noticed that the way people are treating the news about the end of the government shutdown is all wrong and so I thought I'd better get on here here and correct everything sorry I'm a little disheveled all right so here's what we know uh months ago months ago I predicted that this wouldn't end meaning the government shutdown as well as the wall negotiations until somebody said let's
[1:22]
negotiations until somebody said let's kick it over to the engineers or the experts now some people are saying uh that uh no it's the border security people it's not the engineers so you got it
it wrong to which I say it's always going to be the engineers and the Border Security Experts it can never be just one of them the Border Security Experts are kind of like the users in this case they're not the ones writing the check but they're the users they're the ones who say okay our specifications are this place needs you know more security this place needs less and then the engineers decide what to build so now that's happened all right so both both sides have apparently agreed to kick it over to the experts who are really a combination of the engineers plus the border security people so so far in the entire world I'm the only person who told you that was going to happen it had to happen there
[2:23]
going to happen it had to happen there wasn't anything else that could happen so the one thing that could happen happened but now the fun who
won um so who won let's see your opinions uh I'm watching the uh the breathless uh
proclamations so here's here's my take I'll I'll be watching for your comments as I say this um this is like a baseball game in the fifth inning and the spect ators are calling the
the winner how do you call the winner in the fifth inning it's not over so the question you have to ask yourself okay is it maybe it's not technically over because we don't know what this committee will come up with and if they come up with something we don't know if anybody's going to implement it because you know you could always ignore the committee but I don't think either side
[3:24]
committee but I don't think either side wants to ignore the committee at this point because if either side ignores the committee they will now be wait for it here's the big
big turn if they ignore their the recommendations that come out of the experts they will be ignoring the experts and that's new now you could say they've been ignoring the experts up to now but the way it's been framed is as a competition between uh Pelosi representing the Democrats and Trump representing his base mostly so that frame is now lost so both sides have given up the frame that it's Pelosi versus Trump they kicked it to the experts now what happens if the experts come up with a totally reasonable sounding plan that has a little bit of barrier here a little bit of fence here a little electronic stuff here what happens what happens if Trump says I don't want to do what the experts say well that would look pretty bad wouldn't
[4:25]
well that would look pretty bad wouldn't it how do you defend that what happens if Pelosi says yeah I hear what the experts say but I don't want to do it it's going to look really bad because now you're not disagreeing with the president you're disagreeing with the experts once it be once once we reach the situation where both sides Trump and Pelosi let's say got to the point where they both were saying we need border security and whether it's a wall per se is not the important part once we reach that point the the end game became clear although for some reason I'm the only person who told you what it was which is they'd have to kick it to the experts the experts would come back and say it's going to look like this or look like that and then they're sort of Trapped so here's what's different all right A lot of people are going to say wait a minute you know uh this setup wouldn't have worked before and it probably wouldn't have if they had done this earlier it may not have been successful still might
[5:27]
may not have been successful still might not be but the odds are much better now and here's why the country and the and the politicians have a border fatigue they're really tired about this they don't want to do this again the last thing they want is another government shut down and so Trump who has looked entirely reasonable which his critics will say means he capitulated he caved uh CNN uh is hilarious if you look at the front page of CNN uh they've used every word you can use for him losing he is losing he's caving he's backing down Etc but he's also being reasonable all right for every person who says that the president is backing down what you have to answer is what's wrong with letting the experts tell us what to do there because somebody said the the cartel one
[6:29]
because somebody said the the cartel one and that will be true if we don't get better border security now let me take you to the Future all right now there there's a good chance that whatever the crewp comes up with the president will turn down on the first pass right you should all be ready for this whatever the group comes up with the working group whatever it is you should expect the president to turn it down on the first pass right now forget about any any other times before this is a new day because he might get a little extra so it would be sort of a a good thing to do to turn it down on the first pass and then then maybe get a little extra and and say yes so that would be perfectly typical so don't be surprised or panic when that happens
um uh so Trump has been slowly guiding us away from it's got to be a big concrete wall
[7:30]
concrete wall to it needs to be a variety of solutions what are the two things that could happen as a result of the as a result of the the working group and the experts number one they could decide to improve security at the Border in a variety of ways if president Trump gets more border security than we had before will that look like a loss and what's the other alternative the working group will get together and say damn it we don't need any fences or walls at all let's tear down the stuff we have and never put any more in there can they do that do you think there is any chance this is the question you have to ask yourself if you're going to predict what's going to happen is there any chance that whatever the outcome is maybe after some more stops and starts which would be predictable but whatever that outcome is is is it going to be
[8:31]
that outcome is is is it going to be more border security or less or maybe exactly the same you tell me are we going to have more border security exactly the same or less at the end of this process because if it's more it doesn't matter what it looks like it's not going to matter at all now it seems like it matters now people are going crazy and that Trump let them down and he caved he capitulated damn it he capitulated but just think ah had a few weeks is there any chance that the experts are going to you know look into it and decide to give us less border security no is there any chance that we'll end up with a let's say just a normal incremental Improvement that would have been exactly the same under any other president Maybe but probably
[9:33]
but probably not yeah everybody's saying more no matter what happens the smart money says we're going to get something that most objective observers will say okay that's probably a little more than another president could have gotten us and people will look back and say he made a you know a big ask wall that thing up concrete the whole way and then eventually as the negotiations were ongoing in the public it was sort of a public negotiation I would say they got closer and closer to the middle but that middle is going to look like it's leaning his Direction which is not the worst thing in the world is it now if you've been following me for a while I don't think you uh I don't think you've ever seen me say he needs a wall all right so if you if you're wondering what my personal bias is or my personal preference from the beginning I've always said the same thing how the heck do I know how
[10:35]
same thing how the heck do I know how much of it should be a wall let's have the experts tell me once the experts tell me then I'll maybe agree with them you know but uh I'm certainly not going to come up with my own idea of how to do border security so there's nothing in this that is number one not what I predicted or anything I have a problem with do you have a problem with it is there anybody who has a problem with it that's not
political does anybody have a problem with a working group of experts coming up with a a good solution for border security that you know we put a few billion dollars into whatever that number is I don't know I I don't see any of this as being a problem now let me take you back a couple years ago when the president was first saying uh wall wall wall wall wall how much did we the public actually
[11:37]
wall how much did we the public actually know about the situation did you know that putting a wall the entire length was impossible you know at least in terms of getting the rights to the land and the the terrain and everything did you know it was just impossible well now you're probably far more educated for example do you remember when people were saying walls are no good because and whether it's a wall or a tall steel structure whatever you want to call it all the smart people were saying that's no good because the cartels will just tunnel under it and then we saw at the trial for El Chapo that one of the experts who was a a cartel member said no we stopped using wall we stopped using tunnels do you know why they stopped using tunnels kept getting caught and it and it was easier to do it another way building a tunnel is a real expensive takes a long time now if you
[12:39]
expensive takes a long time now if you happen to have a background in economics did you think that the tunnels would be used for letting uh illegal immigrants into the country if you studied economics and you thought that those tunnels built by the cartel were going to be used for uh just individuals who wanted to cross illegally then you don't understand economics or or at least you're not a good criminal if you're a criminal rule number one you want the fewest number of witnesses that you can have if you're if you're using a tunnel to cross thousands of people through your tunnel you've created thousands of witnesses thousands of witnesses there was no reasonable World in which a tunnel would be used for anything except Contraband right because if you're only using for Contraband then maybe five people in the cartel who have sworn their life to the cartel well they know
[13:41]
their life to the cartel well they know where the tunnel is but nobody else knows that's a good tunnel so and then if you add on top of that that the government got better at apparently detecting tunnels um you suddenly start using uh fishing boats so apparently fishing boats are the you know the popular method and aircraft and just crossing at the
the border but think about you know forget about the the tunnels in particular think about how much you learned about building border structures you've learned about how other countries are doing it you've learned approximately what the budget is you've learned what's been done in the past you've learned what the experts are suggesting you've learned that in urban areas you want you know more of a structure you've learned that in remote areas we have a number of um electronic digital kinds of ways to sense and maybe there's some drones and stuff think of how much you learned as a citizen about border uh stuff that was
[14:46]
citizen about border uh stuff that was all Trump all Trump had Trump not been hammering on this topic for three straight years we would not be more educated on this topic and now that we're all educ educated we all came to the same opinion didn't we now if you don't count the crazy open borders people who are you know trivial they're kind of like the flat earthers of the conversation if you don't count the extremists wouldn't you say that we've all learn so much about border security and I would include the president don't you think that the president knows a lot more about B border security than when he was a candidate of course he does we all do and now that we've learned enough um we see that kicking it over to the experts and letting them come up with a variety of solutions that make sense for every area is clearly the best thing to do so follow this the president raised the priority of the Border question
[15:46]
the priority of the Border question higher than it's ever been by raising the question to the highest priority even though we were fighting the whole time the entire entire country Democrats Republicans and independents we all became educated to a far greater degree than I ever expected would happen for myself or for anybody else now that we're all educated and and it's our highest priority at the moment right what's a higher priority it seems like the highest priority so Trump made it the highest priority he educated the public by hammering on this forever until we all understood it and then here's the fun part once we you were educated he did the very thing that you should do kicked it to the experts he's going to shine a light on it and now the politicians and the experts are trapped they're trapped they can't say no to
[16:47]
trapped they can't say no to fundamentally what the experts come up with you know they they can change some things on the margin as I said Trump is likely to turn down the first thing they come up with just because he might get a little more you know they might be sick of doing stuff and say all right we'll give you a little bit more but he's created a situation where we will get some kind of better border security in the most intelligent and coste effective way it could be done do you know what CN CNN calls that
losing did I say anything that isn't true did I just say anything that isn't observably true the president raised it as a priority in so doing he educated the entire country including himself including Pelosi including you including me we're all smarter and now that we're smart enough he put it into the only system that ever made sense kick it over
[17:49]
system that ever made sense kick it over to the experts make sure the whole country is watching so that whatever those experts come up with we can't just you know put that paper under a pile and ignore it we can no longer ignore whatever those experts came up with now suppose he started on day one and said okay I set a wall but I'm going to kick it over to some experts total debacle it would have been a total debacle if Trump had done now which is turning it over to the experts uh if he had done that on day one when he got elected that would have looked like losing because we wouldn't be educated and we would ignore whatever they came back with because it wouldn't be that much of a priority by making it the world's biggest priority or at least our biggest priority in our minds anyway maybe not in reality but in our minds our biggest priority he's guaranteed that we can't ignore what the experts come up with he's also made every Democrat who matters say in public we
[18:50]
Democrat who matters say in public we want good border security he made every Democrat every critic of his he made say in public except for you know the crazy RPS and and some of the Fringe people but all the ones who matter he made them say in public that security matters and we should do it a smart way that's the Trap the Trap is that he made the Democrats say for a month we have to do it the smart way and then he educated the entire country and then he turned it over to the experts and the engineers and do you know what they're going to come up with the smartest way yeah the smartest way is coming maybe we haven't seen it yet maybe they already had it maybe maybe they're 95% done with it it was always the plan but we just didn't know what it is
[19:51]
is um somebody says you're an idiot they said that years ago I'm saying the same thing for years they have said give it to the experts and for years the experts have had a plan but it was never the right time because the public had not been educated and the public was not as engaged as they are now you had to get the public educated you had to get us engaged and you had to make sure that whatever the hell comes out of that committee let's call it the committee but the working group whatever comes out of that we care now we didn't really care that much before um
um so in losing if you'd like to say that uh Trump lost politically you can make that case because he asked for a wall and he probably won't guess something that looks like a 2,00 2,000 mile wall so you could certainly say that uh he did not
[20:52]
could certainly say that uh he did not get what he wanted and you could also say that uh some of his most Ardent supporters will give him a hard time but here's what they're going to have to criticize they're going to have to criticize the smartest people meaning the experts coming up with the wisest plan that the engineers and the border security people with the most experience are backing that's what you have to be against now before you got to you got to be against a dumb idea which is a big concrete wall for 2,000 miles how hard hard is it to be against a big dumb concrete wall That's 2,000 mil easy right everybody can be against that you know even people who are on Trump's side were against that but how do you be against the working Committee of Engineers and experts who say for this amount of money we can make a big difference and it would look like this including you know sensors at the The
[21:53]
including you know sensors at the The Crossings and um you know maybe they'll throw in some some other immigration stuff all
all right um I'm watching my Twitter feed and people are piling in uh if feels exactly like it felt uh the day before election day for those of you who don't remember 2016 so about a week before election people were piling into my Twitter feed and and they were they were still sore about all the things I'd said uh about the campaign and things i' said they were positive about Trump and they came in to say I'm going to come back here tomorrow after the election to you know to drink your tears because you're going to be so humiliated I can't wait to see I can't wait to see you eat crap tomorrow I can't wait for your humiliation the day after the election my life is complete I get to see the dber guy completely
[22:54]
get to see the dber guy completely humiliated it didn't go their way sorry didn't go their way in this case everything that's happened up to this point I told you would happen not only did I tell you what happened it's what I wanted to happen what I wanted to happen was for the situation the dumbness to subside what is the dumbness here's the dumbness a concrete wall for 2,000 miles that's dumb right I don't care who you are that's dumb what else is dumb let's do nothing let's not f any better border security well that's dumb right so we had to leave the dumb place it was two different dumb places but they were both dumb right I have never occupied either dumb place I've have always been waiting right here I I've been waiting for both dumb sides to say yes uh yes border security matters let's
[23:56]
yes uh yes border security matters let's give it to the experts let's get educated let let's figureing out how to do this right and then take that decision away from the politicians you know let the politicians say we want better security both sides say that now and let's see how far we can get now uh Ann couter apparently is not too happy about this so he says please address an Coulter um I'll give you a general answer uh it's hard for me since I'm a professional writer it's hard for me not to love an cter all right and some of you don't want to hear that right but my God she's a great writer whatever else you want to say about her her her just pure writing skill her ability to form a sentence to put an idea together to make a book out of it is is crazy I mean she's like the best you know one of the best writers you've ever seen but she also has you know she has a unique niche in politics um
[24:58]
unique niche in politics um I don't I don't begrudge her uh I don't begrudge her success within that Niche but I don't think it's also necessary that I have an opinion on her because she's doing what she does really really really well which is different from me having to agree with everything she says uh so so I I just I think I'll defer I don't need to have an opinion about her her her capability is through the roof um but that doesn't mean I agree with all of her points all right
uh uh I haven't heard what Mike sovich said yet but um but give him a week give Mike a week and see if anything changes I'll just leave that there all right um
[26:02]
I think that's all I need to talk about and I will talk to you later