Episode 373 Scott Adams: The Turley Hypothesis, CNN’s Border Story
Date: 2019-01-13 | Duration: 31:16
Topics
Jonathan Turley, legal scholar, article ponders the question… Are Russian Collusion and deep state, confirmation bias? Does confirmation bias fit the facts? 3 Possibilities, which one is most likely? 1. Deep state attempted to set up a candidate/President 2. President Trump is actually a Putin puppet 3. Both sides “saw” crimes, but actually confirmation bias Prediction: No convictions or impeachments for Russian Collusion or deep state activity Humans can only invent ourselves or a better version of ourselves Facebook is our heart and family Twitter is our brain Geo-Engineering the earth and other planets Is God both our future and our past?
I fund my Periscopes and podcasts via audience micro-donations on Patreon. I prefer this method over accepting advertisements or working for a "boss" somewhere because it keeps my voice independent. No one owns me, and that is rare. I'm trying in my own way to make the world a better place, and your contributions help me stay inspired to do that.
See all of my Periscope videos here…
https://www.pscp.tv/ScottAdamsSays/1nAKERDOwylGL
Find my WhenHub Interface app here…
https://interface.whenhub.com
> [!note] Rough Transcript
>
> This is an auto-generated transcript and may contain errors.
## Transcript
[0:16]
oh yeah nectar of the Gods yes yes I'm a little bit late I know it I've been working hard trying to write my new book lost track of the time I am in Vegas at the moment I do not come here to drink and Gamble and have promiscuous sex I'm all about the time away from home to get my writing done and eat some good food and that sort of thing but right now you know what time it is I know you do it's time for coffee with Scott Adams I'm Scott Adams this is the coffee you should grab your your mug your Stein your cup your glass your container your chalice if you will fill it with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me for the simultaneous
[1:20]
sip you have to be ready whoever said hold on you got just got to be ready you have to
to be all right so it's say a little after 8: a.m. I think here no it's almost [Music] 8 so let's talk about uh an article I tweeted around you can see it in my Twitter feed toward the top by uh H let's see constitutional lawyer Jonathan Turley and I said it was the smartest thing you ever going to read about the topic of uh the Russia illusion story as long as well as the uh the Deep state conspiracy story now here's what I love about it one of the big illusions of life is that you think you know what reality is on let's say on a specific topic you've got
[2:20]
let's say on a specific topic you've got an opinion and you say I'm sure I have this right because I can only think of one explanation that would fit all the facts so if you're trapped in that mental jail where you can only imagine one thing that would fit all the facts it's always mindblowing to see somebody come up with another theory that fits all the facts and it's just completely different I'll give you a few examples of that today so tur's take on both the Russia collusion and on the Deep State uh and he doesn't say it as a state statement of his fact he says it as a what if so he says what if the Russia collusion story is not true and at the same time the Deep State at least the the robust version of it is also not true what if
[3:21]
version of it is also not true what if both sides were operating entirely in a confirmation bias but were otherwise and here's the Great part were all acting responsibly but they just had confirmation bias in other words what if the FBI when they were um when they went after apparently they went after Trump under the assumption that he might actually be a Russian puppet so turly suggests maybe they actually just thought that was the truth what if the FBI simply thought it might be true and they did their best to look into it now at the same time the FBI could be riddled with people who were biased so there's nothing I'm going to say that um detracts from the fact that there could be lots of biased people but that doesn't change the
[4:21]
people but that doesn't change the possibility that the FBI could also believe what they thought because that's the most typical situation right so remember I'm not mind reading I'm I'm talking about Jonathan turley's article in which he says what if so we're not saying it's true we're saying does it fit the facts as well as the other two theories because the competing theories are that either the Deep State set up Trump and that's the whole story or there's no real deep State and the Trump organization was involved in some kind of collusion thing to presents the third opinion which is both of them are imagining it they're imagining different things but it's all imaginary which one fits the facts the best now uh tur's opinion largely matches my own so from the beginning I've been
[5:21]
own so from the beginning I've been saying okay there are two things I don't believe number one I don't believe Russia collusion number two I don't believe the Deep state is organized meaning it's entirely uh it's clear that there were people with deep uh deep opinions but don't you think the FBI has deep opinions about everything it it wouldn't matter who is the president there would be people in the organization who had deep opinions about him or her so that's actually a normal situation now people are going to say to to me yes but what about what about those emails that say we need a we need some kind of a uh we need an insurance policy how do you explain that Scott how's that confirmation bias I'll tell you how it fits it fits turley's question perfectly it's entirely possible that
[6:24]
perfectly it's entirely possible that the members of the FBI including stro and Paige didn't like Trump as a politician but also may have believed he was a danger to the country because he was a Russian asset if they believe that what would be the most responsible way to act for the FBI well you would have you would have a plan to get to the bottom of it and you might also have a a b plan in case the a plan didn't work and that a plan could be your insurance policy so I would warn you that whenever you're looking at a at a um at an email and of context it's very difficult to know what it really meant in the climate gate example you saw another one right you saw the climate gate person on the email say uh we're going to use Michael man's trick they use the word trick to quote hide the
[7:24]
quote hide the decline now if you see that in a context you say my God it's proof that it's a conspiracy to hide the facts but if you know how people talk casually when they know each other it's just the way people talk so your your uh your mathematical technique I'm going to call a trick doesn't mean I don't believe it's real it's just it's a just a Sher way of talking about it and hiding hiding the decline was the whole point they were looking at it they were looking at it to try to explain the decline and if somebody in an email to a friend said let's try to hide this thing with this trick it doesn't mean what you think it means when you take it out of context it could mean that but the evidence is not there all right so and likewise with the uh with the email about the insurance you don't really know what that was about so you shouldn't assume that it meant that they
[8:25]
shouldn't assume that it meant that they were part of a deep State plot let me be very careful about this neither neither theory is either confirmed or ruled out the beauty of what I'm talking about is that there are now three World Views which all fit The observed facts they all fit what we know so far fits all three hypotheses uh in in the sense that none of them are ruled out now at some point I expect we will rule out some of them let's make some predictions let me ask you this if the now that we know that the FBI was legitimately well let's not I almost say legitimately now that we know from The New York Times reporting that the FBI opened the investigation on Trump because they were actually concerned that he was a Russian asset so that's I
[9:28]
that he was a Russian asset so that's I I think that that's enough in evidence Even in our in Even in our fake news world that we could probably say that's true that the FBI was actually conserned um at this point uh meller has been looking into this for many months let me ask you this if Mueller had found evidence that President Trump was a Russian asset would he still in
office ask yourself that you know we don't know what Muller has come up with so we can't guess exactly what he's going to say at the end but do you believe there's any chance even even any chance just any chance at all that meller has discovered that Putin is running Trump and he's decided to wait do you think that Müller would wait
[10:31]
wait do you think that Müller would wait if he had found that out not a chance suppose he was 50% sure suppose he just had some solid looking evidence but not solid enough let's say he was 50% sure would we already know that absolutely we would know that because there's no way that Mueller would allow that size of a risk to keep running with the with the country just hanging out there with the risk that Putin is actually running the country you know at the very least the topic of even maybe temporarily taking the president out of the playing field and replacing him with Pence while we just find out you know or something of that nature right so I would say at this point the odds that Mueller can confirm anything like Russian collusion or
or Russian Russian asset or anything like
[11:33]
Russian Russian asset or anything like that is pretty close to zero because nothing we're observing would be consistent with him having strong evidence of that again you know we're we're only predic in the future but we'll see now here's another one another bit of evidence one of the great um so there are two weird contradictions in this whole Russia collusion Story one of the weird one of the
the weird uh inconsistencies is that Comey was first blamed for Su doing something that was bad for Clinton meaning a few weeks before the election he talked about their uh their open their open case looking into her emails now that was unambiguously bad for Clinton and Clinton will be the first one to tell you that but then later Comey did things
[12:34]
that but then later Comey did things which seem unambiguously bad for president Trump how does the how does the Deep state conspiracy work if comey's on both sides that doesn't make sense and so so if you look at the turly hypothesis it explains comey's actions perfectly it expl explains that he thought there might have been a real problem with the Russia thing and he also was simply trying to do his job now I said when when the initial Comey announcement came out about Clinton right before the election I said something that a lot of people hated I said and I don't know how many other people said this but it was a very uh an unusual opinion I said that Comey is probably doing this because he feels that it's his duty and what I meant was
[13:36]
that it's his duty and what I meant was he had this knowledge about the ongoing investigation and it would have been unfair for the public to go into the voting booth not knowing what he knew now he didn't know more than the fact it was an investigation he didn't know how it would end but he wanted us to know that cuz if we had found out later wouldn't you be pretty angry about it and somebody saying they're accusing me of mind reading um that's that's the fair question to ask am I mind reading or am I looking at a theory of the world and trying to see if the data fits the theory or doesn't now what I'm telling you is that the the uh Jonathan turly Theory which he just suggests he's not telling you it's it's true but He suggests the both are just operating in confirmation bias would perfectly explain comey's inconsistency because if he were part of
[14:38]
inconsistency because if he were part of if he had been part of a deep State plot from the beginning doesn't really explain why he would have damaged Hillary Clinton in such a visible way while at the same time in other time in other times he's damaging Trump likewise the Russian conspiracy theory kind of falls apart with the fact that the Russian trolls also made memes that were anti-hillary how can you explain that the Russians were making some prot Trump memes and some uh Pro Hillary memes now most of them were Pro Trump but if your job is to support Trump why in the world would you ever make some that are the opposite that's completely unexplained right so but ear's explanation does explain it it would just say that the Russians were messing with us like they always do just trying to make the system I don't know less
[15:39]
to make the system I don't know less possibly less Dependable less credible that would be bad for us whatever the Russians were doing maybe they were just testing maybe they're just seeing if they can make any difference something like that but uh now some of you going to say but wait a minute isn't it obvious that um that Brennan and Clapper are
are dirty because at least half the country looking at this story or maybe 40% of the country is saying oh my God it's obvious that those two guys are dirty part of the deep state conspiracy well consider this the dossier didn't originate with the FBI they were the recipients of it and it was information they didn't know if it was true or not so certainly we can agree that the Democrats were trying to take out Trump there's there's no question on that right the Democrats funded the dossier
[16:40]
right the Democrats funded the dossier the dossier was full of BS you know it ended up in the FBI's and it's pretty clear that the the Democrats you know were behind a scheme you know that part's not in question but and Brennan and clappin Clapper are clearly partisan if you were to take turtle's theory that everybody's just operating on confirmation bias it's all perfectly consistent with what I just described you've got some partisans doing what is good for partisans and of course they are trying to take out Trump but they're doing it as partisans they're doing it the way every other partisan is doing it and uh that isn't necessarily proof of a grand conspiracy so here you have three um theories on reality either it's a deep State setting up Trump with a fake dossier and a fake Russia collusion
[17:43]
fake dossier and a fake Russia collusion or president Trump really is a a a Putin puppet or both sides are operating under confirmation bias and were mostly trying to do what they thought was right let's make a prediction I make the following prediction number one no one will ever get it go to jail or be impeached for Russia collusion or for being a Russian asset of some kind number two there will never be a deep State um plot that we have specific you know definite knowledge about in other words we'll never have an email that says hey everybody let's meet for the Deep state or whatever you know something is obvious is that we'll get together and try to take out this president for political reasons if there's information that the
[18:43]
reasons if there's information that the FBI was trying to take Trump out because they they thought maybe he was a political puppet that's a different question um or a Putin puppet all right so here's my prediction no convictions and no impeachments on either the Deep State side or on the Trump collusion side there will be plenty of convictions and people getting fired for doing things they shouldn't have done for lying to investigators for things unrelated to the central claim Etc yes I've explained the Peter struck email in which insurance that word insurance taken out of context you should not assume you you know what what he meant and when we hear the context I don't know if we ever will um it probably is more common than some kind of weird
[19:51]
um yeah so let me have to look at my notes here oh so here's here's another thing I told the other day remember I told you that the story about CNN asking the local station that was near the border of San Diego station I guess so the story was that CNN asked them to if they could talk to somebody you know at that new station uh to get information about the border and then The Story Goes that when the local station said that that walls work the CNN decided not to not to go with it so that was the story when I heard the story I came on Periscope and I said fake news the most normal thing in the world is for CNN's producers to reach out see about doing something and then not necessarily do that thing that they looked into so the number of times that producers look into things is much higher than the number of times that
[20:51]
higher than the number of times that they go with the thing they looked into now I live and work in this world so I know for example that producers contact me they will even do a pre- interiew and then decide not to do that story very normal and so when CNN was uh was accused of backing off because they didn't want to report you know real news you know me I'm a big critic big critic of CNN I'm a big critic of CNN and I said oh that's obviously fake news CNN's producer just looked into it and decided not to do it for whatever reason uh CNN's explanation was that they talked to lots of different uh people and networks and and only went with some of them after they looked at all the things that they had now uh that was kind of what I told you would be the case all
[22:00]
right uh and so and some of you are saying uh some of you are saying no no it's not for no reason it's because of bias you can't rule out bias but if but you would be doing mind reading to assume that's the reason because it's not an Evidence let let me put it a different way the only thing that's in evidence is that producers were doing what producers do which is you know they they check out things things and they don't use them all that's the only thing in evidence if it's also true that the reason they didn't use it is because I didn't think it would you know fit their narrative that could be true but it's not an Evidence all right um
[23:02]
and some of you are imagining that I said CNN is not biased really are you imagining that anything I just said right now is the CNN is not biased that's pretty much the opposite of what I just said so the Steve King story is interesting because Steve King has given his uh his response and he said very clearly and unambiguously that he rejects white nationalism and white supremacy and he said it in the clearest possible terms and then he also said that all of his actions and his life are consistent with that he he's got a tough case to make uh yeah I I don't see how people are going to understand the comments he's made in the past as being consistent with his clarification so I think he's got a big problem there
[24:04]
there um yeah it looks like that story just sort of went
away all right um what else do we have to talk about have I told you my theory about how
how um I think that humans largely for the most part can only invent themselves or better versions of themselves in other words that all of our technology that we invent is really an extension of a human so for example your cell your smartphone is an extension of you just talking to people and communicating in person your car an airplane or extensions of your feet you know your ability to to walk places Etc and now we have this interesting situation in which social
[25:05]
interesting situation in which social media is taking parts of our personality so i' I've said this before that Facebook feels like your your heart you know it's it's all about your loved ones and the things you want to remember it's about your heart Twitter seems to be about your your brain now your brain doesn't always work so well but that neither does Twitter in terms of determining Truth uh somebody says they're afraid that the Deep state is controlling me I don't think you have to worry about that um so you've got Twitter that's like the the mind of the internet because that's really about ideas Facebook is about your heart it's really hey here's my family here's something else I love here's some food I love Etc and uh Instagram is sort of like your visual sense Instagram is just your eyes
[26:07]
visual sense Instagram is just your eyes it's just your eyes it's pictures of stuff so it feels as though we are uh inventing a Godlike super entity which is the sum the sum of all the stuff we're doing so you know we're we're developing Godly like Powers as as a total of humanity that's greater than anything any individual can do and uh you know we're actually talking about geoengineering you know when we're talking about climate change which I'm not going to do today we're talking about you know changing the clouds and changing the the acidity of the ocean and you know literally geoengineering and as we're looking at going to Mars and you going to planets that are uninhabitable there are serious Comin um serious conversations about how to take a baren planet and use our technology that we
[27:09]
planet and use our technology that we don't quite have but I think we've got a you know we've got a at least a toe in it to geoengineer a new planet who is it who can create a planet God right you know as The Story Goes [Music] so one theory that you can't rule out is that God is both our future and our past meaning that you know once humans have invented all the parts of God you know the the eyes and the ears and the brain and the heart that there will be sort of a super entity that actually is almost autonomous uh or it will seem autonomous to us and it'll be able to create worlds and here's the fun part it will be able to create life I believe it will be able to create life now you say to yourself no you can't create life we've tried but we can
[28:10]
can't create life we've tried but we can write a computer simulation and that computer simulation will be characters that you know that believe within the simulation they're real and that they're alive and they have a world and we may be in fact one of those simulations so it would be hard to imagine anything that is a god power that we human beings won't have in my
my lifetime you we're almost there um all right will we ever fully domesticate dogs I like that random
question there are lots of comments about Christina today um by the way if you didn't see there's a very funny meme about the two of us I'll have to tweet that I haven't tweeted it yet
[29:15]
right you know I'm pretty sure that somebody asked me if I've smoked weed for every single Periscope I've ever done uh and the answer is only about 10% from will I do the Joe Rogan show again well I would always be willing to do it because it was a great experience uh I think Joe Rogan's you know sort of a national treasure for the stuff that he does um but I've also maybe talked about you know the persuasion enough so I would need a I'd need another book and another reason to come on and um so maybe but I'd need I'd need a better reason than I have right now
I can't wait until Kanye goes on Joe Rogan show can you imagine how great that's going to be all
[30:23]
right oh yeah uh let's talk about the blade Authority so there there's some good things happening there that um not ready to talk about out but I do want to give you some ideas that came out of that process some ideas about you know at least conceptually what to do with some of these um blight cleared areas and I'll probably do a special Periscope on that
um all right have you been to Detroit I have
all right so I think that's all I got for today let me let me check my notes here that are behind my iPad and my computer just went off so I think we're done for today all right that's all for now and I'll talk to you later