Episode 349 Scott Adams: Merry Christmas, The Economy and End of Wars

Date: 2018-12-25 | Duration: 1:00:09

Topics

Stock market is sinking…why? Democrats taking control of the house? Fed raising rate in middle of a trade war with China? Fake news driving market fears? Laundry list counter-strategy What’s your number one reason, your strongest argument? Debunk the “best” reason…then stop Saudi Arabia commits to protect the Kurds President Trump might end 5 wars in his first term 1. Yemen 2. North Korea 3. Syria 4. Afganistan 5. Iran support for bad actors reined in As long as employment numbers are good…everything is fine Employment is the most predictive variable When did LOL become an argument or reason? Potential “kill shot” for Chuck Schumer… Hey Chuck, stop making it personal Deny Trump a win, regardless of border security needs? PROPOSAL: Add a word to the forbidden word list Let’s add “Nazi” to the list of socially banned words “Nazi” is a deeply offensive thing to call white people We should consider this a second socially banned “N-word” 40% of world was in “extreme poverty” in Reagan’s day Today, extreme poverty is only 9% Why are we enemies with Russia? Are we just used to being enemies with each other? Why do the US and Russia perpetually poke each other? Is it just business/economic competition?

Rough Transcript

This is an auto-generated transcript and may contain errors.

Transcript

[0:13]

boom ba-ba-boom hey Merry Christmas everybody Merry Christmas Merry Christmas hello Thailand gonna strap myself in here good morning good morning you know what it’s time for it’s time for Merry Christmas but it’s also time for the simultaneous hip whereas Snickers you at desk there she is loyal dog waiting for me she’s wondering who I’m talking to I’m back so I’ve got a new microphone plugged in we’ll see if that makes any difference see if it stops cutting off like you did yesterday so I hope you also the clip of President Trump talking

[1:14]

also the clip of President Trump talking to a seven-year-old from the Oval Office about Santa Claus and the president asked the seven-year-old on the phone so do you still believe in Santa Claus gives his 7 it’s kind of marginal it’s all of the funniest things ever all right so here are a couple of good news items a lot of people are worried about the economy because of the stock market and I saw a tweet from David Pakman who say he’s sort of the Rachel Maddow male version on the left and he was he was talking he he asked this question he said at what point do we start blaming the president’s bad decisions for the the stock market going down now he

[2:18]

the stock market going down now he didn’t give any specific reasons so I said what would be your number one thing he did wrong that was an economic mistake and David Pakman did not offer a reason for that just some generic answer and so other people in the tweet were saying yeah give us an example what’s the worst decision he’s made that’s causing the stock market to go down so some people said well obviously it’s he ran up the debt to which I and other people say that didn’t just happen the stock market is only just going down now everybody knew their debt was going up so it couldn’t be that and then other people said well it’s obviously this you know government shutdown to which I say the government shutdown that’s the most trivial economic thing you could ever imagine completely unimportant it’s not that

[3:20]

completely unimportant it’s not that other people say other people say that yeah it’s he’s about that he’s blaming the Fed and talking about firing the Fed chief to which I say if the Fed had not raised interest rates would we be having a problem with tariffs and trade wars right now because the tariffs and the trade wars have been going on for months while the economy was doing great and I would argue that the situation with the trade wars is better than it’s ever been Mexico and Canada South Korea if they’ve all signed on and China looks like it’s at least moving in the right direction so why would the trade Wars cause the stock market to suddenly go down when the situation where the trade wars has gone from gosh it’s really scary we don’t know if anybody will agree to the

[4:23]

don’t know if anybody will agree to the current situation which is pretty much all the smart people think it’s gonna get worked out so does that make the stock market go down if things went from scarier to far less scary and moving in the right direction on trade anyway not really the only thing that changed there was a big change and it happened recently which coincided with the stock market actually two changes one was one was Democrats taking over the house right that’s new and the other was interest rates of the Fed that’s new now when when the president criticizes the Fed I have to agree that the Fed could have waited until at least the China trade deal got worked out I don’t think it would have made that much difference if they waited six months so it does look like a giant fed mistake now but I’m gonna add some

[5:25]

now but I’m gonna add some uncharacteristic humility to that comment because I’m not sure that any economist really knows what the Fed should or should not be doing with a six-month person you know yes we understand that in general when they should raise rates and in general when they should lower them but I don’t think there’s anybody who is so accurate about what the Fed should or should not do that they can get things right within a six month you know you should have gone six months earlier or six months later clearly the Fed could have waited and it would have been the smart thing to do because the trade negotiation should have been putting as a similar kind of damper on the economy as the increase in interest rates so we could have waited for that and then see if we needed the extra interest rates so here’s here’s my point you’re gonna see what I call

[6:25]

point you’re gonna see what I call laundry list persuasion and I write about this in my new book loser think which will be out many months from now but the idea is that if somebody says ho-ho it’s obvious why I’m right and you’re wrong and here’s the laundry list of reasons so here’s a laundry list of reasons why the economy’s or the stock market’s going down it’s it’s because of the arguing about the Fed it’s because you know not the Fed itself but arguing against the Fed it’s the trade deals it’s the shutting of the government etc and so what I do when I am presented with the laundry list is I have a persuasion trick which I tried to great success with David Pakman it goes like this what you do is you say on your laundry list what is your strongest point because if I can debunk your

[7:26]

point because if I can debunk your strongest point would you agree you should rethink all of your points on your list that are less important and less persuasive than the one I just debunked so I had the only one I want to here is your top reason it turns out very few people can give you one reason because they realize that their arguments gonna fall apart so they’ll still just give you the laundry list again but if you can get them to give you one reason they’ll they’ll watch their own argument to fall apart so if they had said for example well it’s the trade war obviously that’s what’s causing the stock market to go crazy I would say well why didn’t it make the stock market go crazy three months ago when things were even worse in terms of this trade trade war things are better now it’s heading in the right direction now we should go up so if that’s your number one reason then you don’t need to talk about numbers two and

[8:26]

don’t need to talk about numbers two and three and four because you’ve taken out the top one thank you for the reminder it is very much time for the simultaneous up and now join me if you will that could have been a warmer but still delicious hello first day on periscope do we live in a one variable world well if you’re talking about my technique of debunking the top priority that has not has nothing to do with living in a one variable world it has to do with the fact that if you can’t identify even one big reason you don’t really need to listen to the rest of them now doing a doing a specific response to each thing on the list

[9:27]

response to each thing on the list doesn’t work very well because people will just keep adding things to the list you need to stop with the top one just say your top lip your top reason and watch me debunk it and once I’ve done that then just understand that your other reasons are less good than the one I just debunked hey you gotta win Bigley for Christmas congratulations did anybody else get win Bigley for Christmas I hope if he’ll read it now I tweeted last night about the president’s tweet in which he said that Saudi Arabia had stepped up to pay some amount of money must be a large amount oh good I’m glad some of you gave my book or got my book thank you by the way the president tweeted the Saudi Arabia was going to pay presumably a lot to help reconstruct Syria now remember when

[10:31]

help reconstruct Syria now remember when I told you that the President had leverage over Saudi Arabia because he was the only defender that’s what leverage looks like basically the president said okay Saudi Arabia did a terrible thing but if we support them they’re going to us a favor and so he supported them and so they owed us a favor it looks like it’s a pretty expensive one too and so I tweeted that within the president’s first four years he has he has a nonzero chance I don’t know what the odds are but it’s definitely nonzero of getting the United States out of or ending five wars in four years now of course this made Trump critics go crazy because the idea that Trump could end or at least get the United States out of five wars and four years

[11:32]

and four years it just makes your your brain explode if you’re a critic but here here are the five and let me tell you if this sounds unreasonable number one Yemen we put pressure on Saudi Arabia and Iran Iran to end their proxy war and sure enough Yemen just had some peace talks and then agreed to a ceasefire that’s one again we don’t know that any of these will go all the to a good completion my statement is that there’s a nonzero chance and actually a pretty good chance that the president will solve or get us out of five Wars in four years so Yemen is number one looking good number two’s North Korea technically at a state of war and absolutely looks safer because they’re playing nice with South Korea that are tearing down border structures that are building a railroad to connect them and and we can wait a

[12:35]

to connect them and and we can wait a few years to get rid of their nukes because we’re no longer threatened they’re not going to threaten us when things are going in the right direction so North Korea then you’ve got Syria we’re pulling out that doesn’t end the conflict in Syria but it does put a period on the US involvement what it looks like we’re drawing down forces in Afghanistan and apparently the Taliban is willing to talk and negotiate with the government of Afghanistan that’s looking promising so that’s four that’s four wars that the President may be winding down or getting us Hannah and then the fifth I’m going to say is the whole mess with Iran wanting to destroy Israel and supporting the Hezbollah and supporting Hamas etc yeah Gaza so it’s sort of this perpetual low state of war in the Middle East and it’s

[13:37]

state of war in the Middle East and it’s starting to look like again Saudi Arabia is going to be a key player and bringing people to maybe recognize Israel or at least work with them or maybe pull away some support from the Palestinian whatever the less productive people there are and it’s looking like everything shaping up for that to happen so it’s entirely possible the president Trump there’s a nonzero chance he will solve or pull us out of five wars in four years now if you’re still worried about the economy let me give you some calming words about the economy and I realize that most of the most of the public are not economists they’re not investors they don’t have a good understanding of the stock market here’s what you need to know as long as

[14:39]

here’s what you need to know as long as employment is excellent everything’s fine I’ll just say that again as long as employment is excellent which it is everything’s fine you don’t need to worry about the changes in the stock market until you see something that looks like a long term trend that’s a change in the in the employment market somebody says wrong it’s not just employment I know it’s not just employment I’m telling you it’s the most predictive variable if you get that variable right the odds of everything else being good in the long run are really really good so employment is a lagging indicator you’re saying well it is true that the stock market is a leading indicator but the other thing about the stock market is that it it bounces around based on

[15:40]

is that it it bounces around based on headlines and headlines are fake news so we’re seeing a world in which the stock market is in the short-term largely controlled by fate news you know worried about the trade deal worried about the government shutting down worried that the president is really crazy you know all those things but for the most part as long as employment is good and profits are good you don’t have to worry about the stock market bouncing I do not give financial advice but I will tell you that this is probably a rare buying opportunity I don’t know where the bottom is that’s the hard part but so again this is not financial advice but I just put a lot of money in the stock market so personally I’m going in strong because you don’t get you don’t get many situations where the

[16:41]

don’t get many situations where the market pulls back ten percent or more so when it does if you can afford it and you’ve got some extra cash that’s at least what do you think about it it looks like Bitcoin is up right Bitcoin is started to make a small recovery deficits up debt is up yeah here’s the thing about government deficits and debt we should worry about the direction of things meaning that if the debt is getting perpetually worse that probably is a problem at some point but the the current level of debt is historically not the highest it’s ever been so we’ve had higher debt and we handled it quite well in a period of growing economic you know goodness so

[17:44]

growing economic you know goodness so we’re not at a point where it’s a problem right now somebody’s mocking me for saying ten percent well if you would listen to what I said you would be mocking the wrong thing what I said was it’s rare for the economy to go down ten percent or more so if you can get see a 10 percent and pull back you should start to think in terms of looking for a buying opportunity but I could go down 20 percent 20 presents a pretty bad pullback but certainly could happen and by web tokens yes yeah if we’re dead we’re down 20 percent or so but that’s more to my point that that’s not a violation of my point that’s making my point stronger than I was making it said

[18:48]

point stronger than I was making it said that this is a book at you know the bookshelf behind me is just mostly books that people gave me that I haven’t read and I and I also don’t worry about stock market Corrections in general as long as employment is good if you saw a housing let’s see if you saw let you know mortgage collapse or unemployment then you should get worried but otherwise don’t get worried let’s talk about crypto the the main thing you need to know about crypto currencies is that the probable value of any crypto currency in the long run is zero because most crypto offerings will disappear Bitcoin and some of the big ones are special cases and they may last forever but you don’t

[19:51]

and they may last forever but you don’t know what they’ll be worth forever some people are having a problem with my hat it doesn’t look Christmassy enough when it gets pulled back they’re much better the supply curve of crypto is flat yeah I think housing will will slow for sure but it probably should you know anything that’s been hot for a while and then slows for a while that’s not the worst news in the world the worst news is if everything stays hot too long then you’re then you’re in trouble good crypto be a true democracy voting system why are there so many crypto questions today so how’s that Trump have

[20:53]

questions today so how’s that Trump have you noticed that the anti-trump errs have completely given up on reasons they don’t they don’t use reasons anymore they use a sarcasm apparently there’s an entire segment segment of the population that believes that lol is an argument and it goes like this I might say something like well you know the feds action was premature and the trade deals were actually baked into the stock market so clearly given the timing of things it was the feds action more than the trade deals that are affecting the current short-term economic you know difference in the stock market so I would say something like this and and here’s my here’s usually the economic argument I get in return oh let’s go lol lol Scott thinks the

[21:53]

oh let’s go lol lol Scott thinks the economy is ok lol lol and seen when did lol become an argument if all you have left is sarcasm and correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t you watching the same phenomenon online I’m pretty sure boos behind me I’m pretty sure we used to talk about real reasons you didn’t we used to say things like well the the deficit is too high okay that’s a reason I can either say that’s important or not important I could say we’re gonna deal with it or we’re not going to deal with it but it’s a reason I might disagree about its importance but it’s a reason do you know what isn’t a reason oh well lol Scott hah hah hah hah hah hah hah

[22:53]

lol Scott hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah your opinion ha ha ha the I think I need some kind of linguistic killshot for the people who come in and think that that sarcasm is thinking because I actually think that yeah and the people Communion and saying you know lol you’re such an idiot I get that a lot on on social media lol you’re an idiot so Mexico paid for the wall lol it’s not an argument yeah and and there are people who think they’re making a really good point by saying that Mexico has not yet paid for the wall first of all we don’t know that they’ll never pay for the wall and given that nobody’s building the wall it’s a

[23:54]

that nobody’s building the wall it’s a little premature to say who’s paid for it but is there anything less important to Republicans is there anybody who voted for Trump who voted based on the fact that Mexico would pay for the wall and anybody who heard me talking about Trump for the last three years knows that paid for the wall is making you think past the sale if you’re talking about who paid for it you’re already accepting that there’s going to be some kind of a wall so the whole paid for the wall thing was never real and how do we know it’s it was never real because we have a recording of Trump saying it he saying it to Mexico right didn’t Trump tell Mexico how the pay for all thing don’t worry about that I think he actually said that so if you can’t distinguish between what is you know political talk and what is economic talk you shouldn’t be in the conversation you

[24:58]

you shouldn’t be in the conversation you accept lies I don’t accept lies I just told you literally the opposite of accepting oh this is funny somebody’s coming here somebody said they asked their brother or their brother said they were waiting for a Trump to be jailed and then somebody asked some jailed for what and the answer was quote everything and that’s the laundry list tell for Trump Trump derangement syndrome ask him what’s the strongest argument just just one just what it will hey brother what’s the number one thing ya think he’s gonna go to jail for just the best one and after you debunk it say and would you agree if that was your best reason the others are less good than the one I just showed to

[26:00]

less good than the one I just showed to be ridiculous it’s oh let’s talk about Cheryl this film and so in the news president Trump has signed a bill to make to rename a post office in Charlottesville of all places it has to be Charlottesville but of all places by coincidence the post office will be named after as a captain captain Khan who was the the war hero whose parents talked down against Trump at the Democratic convention so soon oh so now the president has done literally the opposite of what people would have expected to do if he’s if he’s anything like they thought he was yeah people are gonna go lol he’s just trying to cover up his races best so

[27:11]

trying to cover up his races best so have you noticed I was watching a Fox News yesterday and have you noticed that pretty much everybody in the the pundit class has come around to my way of thinking how many of you noticed that I don’t know when it was when I first started saying this was it a month ago or two months ago maybe you can fact check me on this remember I said that this whole fence slash wall stuff wouldn’t get solved until both sides could say they got what they wanted and now we’re seeing this steel slat barrier but you can’t really tell if it’s a wall or a fence and you’re seeing both sides say wow let’s let’s call it a steel slapped barrier and is it a wall as a defense I don’t know so I think you’re seeing what I predicted would happen which is that we would just get to the semantics of it now I told you before

[28:12]

semantics of it now I told you before that the president has a kill shot here that he hasn’t used I don’t know that he will I’m not going to predict that he will but the ultimate kill shot is to say a Chuck Schumer let’s not make this personal let’s do something for the American people I know that you don’t want me to get this wall because it’s personal as soon as you say stop making it personal you have painted Schumer as an ineffective useless political creep who’s not doing anything for the country except wasting your time and your money so if the president said maybe we need somebody who can you know do the job of you know a senator and maybe we don’t

[29:13]

you know a senator and maybe we don’t need somebody who wants to make this personal at the expense of the American people because that’s what’s happening right Chuck Schumer is making this personal it’s not even political you remember in the old days you know the two sides would disagree but it was political it would be Republicans who didn’t want Democrats to win it would be Democrats who didn’t want Republicans to win right that was our normal situation but this isn’t that this is actually personal this is Chuck Schumer not saying I don’t worry Republicans to win he’s not saying that he is saying in pretty direct language I don’t want this one person president Trump to have a victory it’s personal it’s not even political so if they were both being political you could see how their own side would support

[30:14]

see how their own side would support them it’s like I yeah it is political of course we’re fighting politically that’s the game we’re all fighting politically but as soon as you take it to the personal you’re no longer credible you you’ve you’ve given up all of your credibility so I think Trump has that it has that mo in his clip and he hasn’t used it but it feels like feels like yet that one could come out yeah given given that Schumer and the Democrats have all talked about border security given that the steel slat barrier is not exactly a fence it’s not exactly a wall and it shouldn’t be a problem for anybody I think it’s just personal and the president can point that out and it would be devastating all

[31:16]

that out and it would be devastating all right yeah read Rand Paul became a lot more interesting lately on Twitter if you have if you’re not checking out Rand Paul on Twitter this week you’re missing a good show he’s gone full Trump in his humor and his and his approach yeah there’s a Kevin Spacey story and a video clip that I don’t even want to watch is it my imagination or did Kevin Spacey transform from you know one of the national treasures greatest actors ever I want to see him in anything he’s in too just so creepy I don’t want to even look at him anymore and yeah has nothing to do with being gay because I think everybody knew he was gay so yeah this has nothing to do with gay there’s just something about

[32:18]

with gay there’s just something about the whole situation that’s just so creepy that it’s it’s hard to it’s hard to want to see him at anything these days Chris Rock yeah what’s the Chris Rock story Oh didn’t Chris Rock say that you wouldn’t be bothered if his white friends used the n-word deposed it depends on what context they were using it in but and then people are mad at him I would like to suggest the following many of you know that I have been as much as I like free speech I’ve said strongly and for a long time that when African Americans want to ban one word just one word the n-word that’s not a lot to ask and so

[33:19]

n-word that’s not a lot to ask and so even though you know on a larger scale I support free speech and everybody’s ability to speak freely it’s just not a lot to ask it’s just one deeply deeply offensive word you know on a human level freaking about the law forget about you know forget about you know well fully good read the law right forget about the Constitution for a minute just on a human level we can give them that one thing right it’s it’s not a lot to ask it’s respect exactly it’s a sign of respect now I I hear the argument this says oh you’re asking too much and why are you you know telling me what words I can and cannot use I hear all that I understand the larger issue but on a human level you know we’re human beings can’t we give them that you know or are we so small that we can’t give them that one

[34:21]

small that we can’t give them that one word that has such a historically damaging effect but given that I agree so strongly that that word should be you know not used in public there’s a separate question about whether you get kicked off a platform blah blah whether it’s legal those are separate questions I would like to propose another band word so while I completely agree that black people should be able to sort of socially ban the n-word I would like to add another n-word Nazi to me it seems that if anybody calls well especially if somebody who’s not a white male if someone who is not white male calls me a Nazi they’ve largely done something that’s at least

[35:26]

largely done something that’s at least in the same range as using the n-word against a black person because what could be worse than Hitler what can be worse than Nazis and I have some German heritage right I may be 20% or something whatever the percentage is but I’m an adult white man being being called a Nazi that’s not fundamentally different from calling a black person the n-word and so I completely support the banning of the n-word when it’s used in any way even if you’re using it as a joke I just think it’s a terrible idea to use it in any way but likewise while I believe that adult white men should be able to use the word Nazi I don’t think anybody else should be allowed to use it as a description of another adult white male I think it’s just as bad and I think you

[36:28]

I think it’s just as bad and I think you should be consider the new n-word it should be the the n-word that’s sort of the the analog on the other side then we both have a word then then I think I think that feels a little more balanced doesn’t it to say that you know I won’t use the n-word against anybody else and don’t I don’t and I don’t want anybody using the n-word against me and I think that people should be kicked off of social platforms either way in other words if you’re kicking somebody else off a platform for using one of the N words I think people should get kicked off for using the other n-word they see them in the same range to me now if you’re saying to yourself oh ho you snowflake Scott how in the world can you equate these two things one is a callback to slavery to you the other one is you be part of the patriarchy and you know the

[37:30]

part of the patriarchy and you know the white people who have everything it’s not the same well here’s my opinion apparently you have not been called the Nazi very much I have do you think that black people would be bothered by the n-word if people rarely used it like if it just never came up do you think that black people would care if it was just like some weird historical word that never got used against them didn’t have much that wouldn’t care it’s because of the meaning it’s developed by the way it’s been used likewise the other n-word the Nazi word gets used against people who actually have no you know no no love for Nazis and it does affect your life so to a large extent I’ve had to shut down most of my public appearances and a lot of my

[38:33]

of my public appearances and a lot of my social life because of that n-word there are so many people who have accused me of being literally have used the word Nazi that it has changed the quality of my life so let’s say let’s play fair and there are now 2 n words and I think we should treat them similarly all right somebody says I think you’re overreacting to words whoever thinks that I’m overreacting to words must think that physical pain matters and psychological pain and and how you can operate in society doesn’t matter that’s ridiculous because psychological pain is every bit as bad as physical pain

[39:37]

one came from the position of power they are not equivalent Scot you you sorry that just slipped out when people are calling me a Nazi and telling me I can’t leave the house because it’s ok to punch a Nazi I’m not coming from a position of power I’m coming from a position of people who are literally planning violence against me so you can make your little your little point about how there are not exactly the same Scott they’re not exactly the same yes I know they’re not exactly the same that’s what makes it an analogy if it if they were exactly the same I wouldn’t be talking about him because they’re exactly the same it’s the point the whole point is that using the wordt is damaging it’s there’s no place for it in society and so those of you who would make that small point that

[40:37]

you who would make that small point that although they’re different they’re it’s there’s a small difference yeah there’s a small difference of course there’s a small difference it isn’t the important difference though it’s funny I was really trying not to swear on Christmas but you know sorry hope hope the kids weren’t listening somebody says they are different lol maybe maybe you missed have you noticed that it’s impossible to tell the difference between sarcasm and real opinions now so I’m watching the comments go by and I actually can’t tell what is a real opinion what is sarcasm so somebody said that those two N words are completely different lol and I’m thinking is that a joke because they

[41:39]

thinking is that a joke because they know the saying that would be stupid or are they just stupid and actually saying that I actually can’t tell I swear to God I can’t tell I have no idea whether that was a pot that would that was a real comment or actually just somebody being stupid I’m gonna say it was a joke what let’s what let lets let’s agree that it was a joke Scott if you ever read mine I have not I’m not sure that reading mine come would be useful just because of the language problem curious about my about the use of the n-word in music well I agree with the thought that

[42:42]

music well I agree with the thought that black folks sort of want to take the power enter the n-word by using it themselves and you know I get all that and I think there’s something to that but I think it’s ruined music a it wouldn’t you say that the the n-word has ruined popular music because if you listen to modern hip-hop rap song and I don’t know exactly where hip-hop ends and rap begins does anybody know what the exact definition of those are anyway I’ll turn on I’ll turn on whether songs or I’ll hear it and it’s so obvious to me that the artist is forcing those words into the song so that they can be that kind of an artist and it’s so contrived now that it just feels on creative do you have the same feeling

[43:44]

creative do you have the same feeling whenever I hear the n-word used in the song by let’s say a black artist who was just using it in the typical musical way all I can think is oh here’s somebody who’s not good at music that my first thought is they’re not good at what they do because they they put a corny hackneyed overused completely unnecessary gratuitous word in there I I have similar standards for movies if I see a movie where the good where a good guy is or a good woman is tied to a chair to be tortured I immediately turn off the movie and I’ll never watch the rest of it so I have this this rule that if the writers are so bad they have to have a scene where somebody’s tied to a chair to be tortured I’m out because there’s nothing else I’m gonna like if you’re if you’re writing is that bad there you have to have that scene and now here’s another

[44:47]

have that scene and now here’s another way to tell bad writing and you’ll see it usually I think it’s I forget which month of the year you’ll see it but if you watch TV sitcoms especially they they have teams of writers and they’ll say okay this this is yours to write and you know this script will be yours to write so there’s different writers working on different scripts for TV shows there’s a way you can tell it’s going to be a bad script and you’ll see this during the non sweeps weeks so there are weeks where they don’t measure viewership and then there are weeks when everybody knows they are measuring so the good writers work on the weeks that are being measured and then they use the new writers or the bad writers on those weeks that nobody’s going to be measuring how well the show did those bad writers have a tell and it’s really obvious and it drives me crazy bad writers make jokes about food so if you turn on a sitcom and it’s a whole bunch

[45:48]

turn on a sitcom and it’s a whole bunch of well not that hungry you’re not that hungry maybe you haven’t seen my cheesecake or cheesecake I’m so hungry though but any any punch line or reference to food in a comedy is your signal as soon as you hear it you can just turn it off because good writers don’t make food jokes now coffee is a little different because coffee has a you know like a a mental impact on you and you know it’s part of the culture and stuff so making fun of coffee or even when when Homer Simpson makes fun of Donuts that’s not necessarily bad writing because there’s sort of special cases with donuts and coffee and stuff far jokes as well yes if you see fart jokes you can pretty much turn it off

[47:00]

yeah the The Soup Nazi of course was not about the food it was about the Nazi which is you found a way to tie all of my themes together foods and food and Nazis yeah we jokes are kind of weak too aren’t they yeah but you’re noticing that a lot of TV shows and movies are showing marijuana is just a normal part of culture now so that’s a little different somebody’s making fun of a joke from Dilbert serious I tell you that I tried to get that to take that joke out of there for the very reason that that you’re pointing out and I did not succeed you know a lot of a lot of

[48:04]

succeed you know a lot of a lot of writing if it’s for TV shows or movies is tends to be a group group effort I did not write that no I’m not even gonna talk about it it was so bad sign of good writing the sign of good writing well that’s a little harder but good writing usually is more complicated bad writing is about the stuff that’s happening to your body I’m putting food in my mouth there’s a far - coming in on my bottom so that’s that’s bad writing good writing is about people’s thoughts so if you see writing that’s about somebody’s selfishness and their their bad character qualities that’s usually

[49:07]

bad character qualities that’s usually good writing thoughts on indictments that’s a big question that would have to be more specific Jim Gaffigan is hilarious and he does talk about food like hot pockets but here’s what Jim Gaffigan does right that makes it work when he talks about food it’s not really a food joke when Gaffigan makes a joke it’s about himself so when people joke about their flaws that can be good writing when the joke is about the food in it in sort of a normal way that anybody would react to food like I like chocolate cake that’s not good writing but when Gaffigan does it he talks about you know his his weakness for it his urges his being overweight you know

[50:09]

urges his being overweight you know that’s a whole different deal yeah um a great food joke I remember seeing on the an early episode of Roseanne so before I got rebooted and before I got rebooted again Dan Dan Connor was talking about how how they deal with it was it Dan or Roseanne was talking about how they deal with their problems they say they they they have problems they just eat until they cover it up or something which was cut it anyway it was funny over the way they said it would you consider among the

[51:12]

said it would you consider among the greatest comics you know that changes based on humor humor is very different over time if you look if you listen to Steve Martin if you listen to like the early Steve Martin stand-up where he was a wild and crazy guy and he you know had the arrow and his head and stuff when he was doing them you know in the day that that was brand-new it was the funniest thing I’ve ever seen in my life but if you watch it now it’s it’s incredibly lame because what you know what we think of as humor evolves all the time so George Carlin I would say probably did better than most people as staying current his you know his early stuff was completely different than his later stuff and he was current in both cases so he probably was one of the best yeah Norm Macdonald always great Dave

[52:15]

yeah Norm Macdonald always great Dave Chappelle great Eddie Murphy never I was never I have to be careful here because I make a big deal about saying that comedy is subjective so if I say I don’t like somebody’s comedy that doesn’t mean it’s not great it just means I don’t like it Eddie Murphy to me has never been funny because he he goes for the easy stuff you know gay jokes F f-bombs it’s it’s just too just too obvious stuff yeah bill burrows funny Seinfeld of course hilarious Richard Pryor I never thought was funny I I don’t know if it’s because I didn’t watch Richard Pryor when he was you know current maybe if I’d seen it in the day it would seem funnier at the time but I never never left of that louis c.k is

[53:16]

never never left of that louis c.k is sometimes hilarious but he’s spotty Sam Kinison was hard to watch for me Chris Rock probably one of the one of the top stand-ups of all time yeah I put him in the top certainly at the top five of all time Kevin Hartz great George Carlin was amazing yeah Jim Jim Jeffries is an interesting case Jim Jeffries is very talented but the content that he talks about well let me put it this way he’s not likable so Jim Jeffries looks like somebody who is very talented at his job but probably the biggest in the world in real life I mean it just sort of comes through and in his performance I don’t know that that’s true but that’s that’s

[54:18]

know that that’s true but that’s that’s the vibe I get and when I get that vibe that he’s a terrible person in real life it’s just hard to enjoy it yeah Foxworthy in again in his day he was hilarious I haven’t seen him lately Joan Rivers was great in her time greg Giraldo didn’t see her that much Amy Schumer it was great yeah Bill Murray’s always funny all right uh yeah Joe Rogan is hilarious and current that’s the other thing that Joe Rogan does well he stays you know his humor stays current all right well you don’t need my opinion about every comedian in the world that would be the most boring periscope of all time all right so it’s Christmas and we should end on something positive don’t you think let’s end on something positive I just

[55:23]

let’s end on something positive I just saw a tweet from I guess it’s human progress org that said that during Reagan’s day something like 40% of the world was in extreme poverty 40% of the world was an extreme poverty in Reagan’s era today closer to 9% we went from 40% extreme poverty to nine and there’s reason to believe that by 2030 I think it is that extreme poverty will be eliminated actually eliminated that’s the most amazing accomplishment the world has ever seen but because it happens kind of slowly you don’t get you know a moment to celebrate that so that’s good the other thing is jobs are great we’re winding down Wars at the moment we have we have nobody pointing a

[56:23]

moment we have we have nobody pointing a nuke at us at least in anger and almost everything is trending in the right direction yes it’s a good it’s a golden era no Yemen is trending in the right direction as well because they just had a ceasefire agreement now in Yemen you’re gonna have to assume that there will be agreements and then breaking agreements and you know it’s going to be stopping and starting but the the process of D conflicting has begun it just won’t be easy and it won’t be fast all right so I’m going to Russia is always a potential threat people say can anybody tell me why we need to be enemies with Russia I just don’t get it what is there going on between the US

[57:24]

what is there going on between the US and Russia that we even need to be enemies you know what what is the natural thing they’re like it’s easy to understand why we’re natural enemy was say al-qaeda or Isis because their their belief system is so opposite that only one can win you know you can’t can’t really coexist with that belief system but Russia they don’t really have a reason to be our enemy now we don’t have a reason to be their enemy except we’re just used to it it feels like just inertia doesn’t it doesn’t it feel like well you know they always focus so they always will so we’d better poke them and then they’re thinking hey they keep poking us so we should poke them back I just don’t really get what the purpose is yeah some people saying that Russia is an expansionist country and they want to you know they’re they’re trying to gobble up their neighbors and stuff but if you look into it a little bit deeper it looks kind of defensive from Russia’s

[58:27]

it looks kind of defensive from Russia’s point of view in other words Russian you know wants a certain amount of control over its neighbors for purely defensive reasons now why do they need to worry about defense because of NATO because of us it feels like it’s all psychological at this point you know there are so many problems that are real but the Russia problem is real but it’s based on psychology alone there’s no there’s no natural reason we need to be enemies with it all right do you think they really want to recreate the USSR when they know it didn’t work the first time I think they want a pipeline and I think they want security national security and I’m not entirely sure what’s the big deal if they had a pipeline I hear us talking about no Russia can’t

[59:29]

I hear us talking about no Russia can’t have you know a warm warm water port and they can’t have a contiguous land to make a pipeline and I’m thinking is it just business is it just because we want to compete with them that’s why they can’t have a pipeline is there anybody else we’re preventing from having a pipeline like what is the morale what’s the moral case for preventing someone from having a pipeline you know we need to think a little deeper than this anyway that’s all I have to say and merry Christmas to all