Episode 328 Scott Adams: The End of War, Kevin Hart, Mueller Porn Update and Facebook

Date: 2018-12-07 | Duration: 26:03

Topics

Social media has already replaced democracy Top former spy agency guy says Facebook is dangerous Says they should be regulated by the government Odds that will happen are very high Charisma = Power + Empathy The “face” of power needs to appear empathetic China can’t tolerate attention on Huawei spy-embedded products A deal with China HAS to happen, that’s a given War is obsolete The economic incentives of war are gone now War between nuclear countries has always been obsolete No longer economically feasible to conquer another country Altitude sickness above 8,000 feet is a real thing?

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> [!note] Rough Transcript
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## Transcript

[0:06]

but I'm put bum bum bum bum bum Joanne always here first quiet lion coming in second hey everybody it's time for coffee with Scott Adams this is the the travel version how does somebody got engaged last night congratulations Cameron Bruce Bruce a lot of people named Bruce I'm here today well it's time to raise your glass your copier mug you're jealous you're Stein fill it with your favorite liquid before you lift it I like coffee join me for the simultaneous sip mm-hmm so I'm seeing that Burma is in the house and my Mr Man everybody's here so the news is kind of boring but busy if you noticed that yeah

[1:08]

boring but busy if you noticed that yeah this is a terrible camera angle but
about that setting better slightly improved
so it's too early to have an opinion on any of these staff changes we're talking about Kelly might leave and knickers might come in and we've got a new UN representative and maybe a new Attorney General and it's all great fodder for the news because you can chat about that stuff all day long but I'm sure all these people are qualified and probably it's going to be a lot of chatter with a lot of substance I tweeted this morning that a top guy from British Intel recently said in an interview that Facebook is essentially dangerous because of its influence and this is the

[2:10]

because of its influence and this is the like one of the top in telega is from great britain saying the facebook is a threat to democracy and should be should be regulated like a utility that's a pretty big statement and i believe it think about the enormity that now i've argued that social media has already replaced democracy it's sort of a form of democracy but a dirty form and that facebook and social media in general are part of that and the way that model looks is that our government who elect really doesn't have the option of doing something that social media doesn't approve of wouldn't you agree now in the short run you can have ideas that social media doesn't like but in the long run you're really going to

[3:10]

the long run you're really going to either lose your next election or you're going to have to conform one way or another so social media largely determines how the government is going to go because they they can't get on the wrong side of social media and that the big tech companies are the biggest determinants of what social media thinks and says and does because they can control which messages have the most play so their algorithms are essentially I would say have already replaced what you thought was the Republic or what you thought was a democratic process so we're way past the point where you have to ask yourself hey can social media distort democracy we're way past that it's already happened the Republic has already been replaced with a new system now you can

[4:12]

replaced with a new system now you can like that new system or you can not like it but I don't think you can legitimately argue that the old system still exists I think that I think that's a settled a settled deal there so it seems to me that the odds of the Facebook someday being regulated are pretty high and I think specifically that the form of the regulation will be some independent body may be some kind of judges they have technical backgrounds they can look at the algorithm and say the only thing we're going to we're going to look at is any change to the algorithm and and then the judges will say okay this change is not in the best interest to the country because it's in its it's introducing some bias so I think something like that's guaranteed eventually now what's interesting is that because the social media companies control how we think

[5:14]

media companies control how we think that they could also control the public to be against any kind of public regulation of their entities so that will be O'Kelly just quit somebody said I don't know if that's true but the reports were that that was imminent
somebody's saying they're going to depose Zuckerberg soon at Facebook I think that's a strong possibility I think Zuckerberg might not last too much longer in his job and a lot of that will have to do with the the public's distrust of Facebook's intentions and actions you know one of the things that Zuckerberg has working against him is that he's not a sympathetic character meaning that his public persona just just let's say his charisma if you will doesn't come across as somebody who's on

[6:16]

doesn't come across as somebody who's on your side he comes across as a little bit robotic and that I think that's just scary to people yeah if you have somebody I've told you before that the definition of charisma is power plus empathy so if you don't have empathy but you have power you look like a monster oh no it's somebody with a lot of power who doesn't care about me that's the scariest thing but if you have lots of power and you care about people then they say that's great I've got this powerful person on my side I love this person so Facebook is this big powerful entity who who's a public face is probably the least empathetic persona we've seen in the modern age it's very hard to watch Zuckerberg in action and feel he feels my heart you know he's he's really connected to my my emotional

[7:20]

he's really connected to my my emotional reality like you don't really feel that from Zuckerberg now by the way I'm not a Zuckerberg basher because clearly he's a genius clearly he's I think people have said he's one of the top top CEOs maybe of all time so in terms of capability strategy intelligence you know motivating his staff and all those things he's probably the one of the best we've ever seen so you can't you can't take that away from but in this very specific situation where he's become so successful that Facebook has so much power you have to make sure that the face of that power is compatible with you know the business model and the business model is that they need people to like them and his the way he comes across is not as likable as it could be

[8:21]

across is not as likable as it could be so I think for that reason alone probably there will be a change and somebody said the uncanny valley I was going to say that but it seemed too cruel I was thinking it I was thinking exactly that and I was thinking it for like actual analytical objective reasons I was thinking it but it just sounds so cruel to actually apply it have you noticed that China apparently did not have a big push back to the CFO of Huawei I think it's pronounced getting picked up in Canada and will be turned over to the United States for some kind of crime and again I don't understand how the United States can have a criminal jurisdiction over a Chinese citizen who did things in China like I I just don't know how that all works so

[9:24]

just don't know how that all works so I'm a little confused about how we have any authority there but let's say we do did you notice that China did not push back hard on that they asked for her to be released but they did not say they were going to derail the trade deals and that's what I was predicting yeah I was saying that these stakes are too high there and even though this person who was picked up is the daughter of the founder of this major company this company is being blamed of such terrible things I think they're being blamed of theft of intellectual property as well as essentially being a spy organization for the Chinese government so that if you put their equipment in your in your country you've installed spy equipment from China now I don't know how true that is but that's that's what the belief is out there so so my my prediction was that

[10:24]

there so so my my prediction was that China could not tolerate having that being a bigger story than it already is so if they were to reverse the trade deal and say how we're walking away from trade that would be a gigantic worldwide story and the last thing they want is for us to talk more about this Chinese company that's apparently a bad and bad actor so I think the Trump administration played this perfectly meaning that they they had a free punch because given the sensitivity of the trade negotiations China really can't die on that hill they're not going to put all their bags all their eggs and the hey you grabbed our CFO basket because that means talking more about that company and the bad things that they've done that no American is going to be happy with so it just works against them to to push on that the Dow

[11:29]

against them to to push on that the Dow is going down yeah so I had said apparently incorrectly not too long ago that December is the worst month for stocks and so somebody doubted me on that and then said be a shark this showed that the last quarter was actually pretty bad but it's not it's not the month of December specifically so the luck the last quarter of the year traditionally and somebody needs to fact-check me on this please because I'm not entirely confident on this but the one chart I saw seemed to indicate that historically the fourth quarter was was low now the thing you got a look at in deciding whether to be panicked or not about the stock market is that it seems to be reacting largely to just a headline news and the headline news is wait for it always exaggerated so remember then the

[12:32]

always exaggerated so remember then the news the business model of the news industry is that if they can scare you that's better they make more money if they can scare you so all of the press you're seeing about the risks and the financial risks etc are filtered through hyperbole they're filter through fear because that's the message that makes people the most money so when your so when you're watching the stock market drop based on the headlines a lot of people who were let's say more balanced in the way they're looking at this are probably thinking it's a buying opportunity now that's not financial advice don't take any financial advice for me but it's a statement of fact that some some people are gonna say I will definitely get a deal with China because we have to the reason we will get a deal with China is that we have to we have to they have to we have to we have to might take a while

[13:32]

we have to we have to might take a while but it has to happen so those people who are willing to wait it out are gonna and yeah so the people willing to wait it out are probably going to be rewarded but that's not a financial advice
bitcoin is at its lowest right now well I hope you appreciate what I've done for a Bitcoin I don't know if you know but when Bitcoin kept zooming and zooming I said darn it people are giving rich while adding nothing to the economy and they're getting super rich while adding literally nothing to the economy so I said as a public service I'm gonna stop this so I bought some Bitcoin actually I bought a fund that the holds Bitcoin and I said to myself this will stop it BAM and that was the end of Bitcoin now if there's anything else you'd like me to stop by investing in it just let me know

[14:35]

stop by investing in it just let me know I'm sure I can I can kill it like I killed Bitcoin and by the way I'm not even joking a little bit about that why I bought it I literally bought it because if it kept going up well I'd have some but the odds of me not crashing that market were low all right can I stop climate change I probably already have who makes opioids China was that a trick question
all right so I've got a question for you in my new book I'm working on I'm I'm writing on the idea that war may might be obsolete so that's my prediction war is obsolete and here's my argument so

[15:38]

is obsolete and here's my argument so war between nuclear powers has been obsolete for some time because of mutually assured destruction if you if a nuclear power attacked another nuclear power there's a good odds that nobody wins so war usually happens when at least one warring party thinks they have a good chance of winning and so for nuclear powers they know that there's no such thing as winning in that environment so so we haven't seen any of those wars now the smaller Wars let's say Iraq and Afghanistan and Syria where you have big powers conquering small towers that's not a nuclear risk because only one side has nuclear weapons and they're not going to use them in a non-nuclear war but because it's so easy to get really good weapons to guerrilla resistance I think the days of economically holding a conquered country

[16:38]

economically holding a conquered country are over meaning that if the United States conquered you know any smaller country those citizens would have access to really good explosives a really good drones really good weapons so that holding that country would never be economical it would always cost more to occupy our country then you could gain by having it now that wasn't always the case wars throughout history often had an economic incentive even as recently as World War two even Hitler had a reasonable he had a reasonable belief as crazy and evil as he was he had a reasonable rational reason to think that he could conquer neighboring countries and economically and here's the key economically hold them because the the resistance in those countries was likely to have just rifles and over time you

[17:40]

to have just rifles and over time you could probably you know pacify that kind of a country but today they're gonna have all kinds of weapons so I think it's not economical secondly because the the economy is so interconnected if a big country conquers a small country and it's an unpopular conquest the big country is going to suffer economically because the rest of the world is going to say hey you stop doing that we're gonna put some economic sanctions on you so you see that happening with Russia and it's aggression against the Ukraine you see that happening with against Saudi Arabia and Iran economic pressure because of their proxy wars in Yemen and of course Iran because of their proxy wars you know all over the place so the economic reason for a war is now gone think about it I'm pretty sure that's that's a defensible statement that the

[18:41]

that's a defensible statement that the economic incentive for war is completely gone now because no conquering country even if they win the war can do it economically and if they can't do it economically just doesn't work so tell Putin so I think that all that's left is what I'll call the specialty Wars meaning that there's a special situation and a special situation might be for example a Russian country conquering a neighboring russian-speaking country that maybe used to be part of their country and maybe the local population is actually friendly toward the conquering country so if you've got specialty situations you'll see yeah its Crimea for example you'll still see that so I don't think that'll change but I think you're gonna need the conquering country to be at least neutral or positive about

[19:42]

to be at least neutral or positive about the conquest I think they're gonna have to sort of be positive about it and speaking the same language will help as well so so that's my that's my thesis my thesis is that because it's no longer economically feasible to conquer a neighboring country no matter who you are except for those specialty cases so you just won't see it and I would argue the President Trump is a big part of that new psychology because you see him putting economic pressure on North Korea successfully North Korea is responded in a rational way to the fact that they could never have never never ever have a functioning economy and that's the sort

[20:43]

functioning economy and that's the sort of pressure that Trump is putting on Iran Iran in its current with its current stance on things can never have a functioning economy ever it's just not an option because the interconnectivity of the world and the fact that economic or so is so effective likewise you see Russia getting you know economically slapped around because of its you know recent provocations so that's why that's my optimistic feeling about the future is that it's no longer economical to conquer and hold a country except for special cases and in the special cases it's not even going to be clear that maybe they shouldn't have been conquered or didn't want to be conquered you know that you and that's what makes it a special case

[21:44]

tell Russia so Russia is actually the I would call the edge case you can look at Russia and you can see the limits of what I'm talking about so Russia taking over Crimea is a perfect example of the special case but if they try to extend that to you know a full conquest of Ukraine and correct me if I'm wrong but if let's say theoretically Russia just militarily or in other ways conquered Ukraine just completely conquered it would Russia have a better or worse economic situation after that I think worse and I think clearly worse because the international community would get pretty tough about it Estonia is a good example so Estonia I think is safe because if

[22:45]

so Estonia I think is safe because if Russia moved against them there just would be no there would be no way to justify that and so I think the international community which is shut down Russia as a as a trading partner with the world you know I think I think their pipelines would be replaced with other sources so anyway so that's what I'm saying that war I think will decline
how would you like to see I don't have any thoughts on the candidates for aje or anything else right now because I just don't know those characters let me give you yeah
so that's my view can you tell where I am I'm in Deer Valley Utah

[23:56]

so I'm in Utah deer valley so one of the things they don't tell you when you travel to a place like this I I got here and I learned that there's something called altitude sickness did you even know that was the thing somehow I got to my current age without knowing there was such a thing as altitude sickness we're above a thousand feet mostly when you get above 8,000 feet it's hard to harder to breathe until you get too used to it and you actually get flu-like symptoms and I got up here and I thought I was dying or something because I I had like all these generic flu-like symptoms and I couldn't breathe and you know I was head achy and all that stuff so I didn't know that there's a place you can go on vacation and that you can sick simply you can be sick simply by being there and that doesn't seem fair yeah it seems like you should have to get a bug or you

[24:58]

like you should have to get a bug or you know some specific illness but if you if you visit a nice town and this is really a beautiful place if you just go to a nice place it shouldn't make you sick just because you're there you'll feel great when you get back maybe so so I'm feeling better today but yeah trying to stay hydrated as someone said you can die it felt like it yesterday
yes I'm sucking through the water like crazy but it's not enough all right
work on your breath work yeah I've been trying to breathe deeply okay is there anything else is happening besides the staffing changes because I don't think

[25:58]

because I don't think those are interesting all right I'll talk to you all later