Episode 327 Scott Adams: The Arrest of Huawei CFO, My Mueller Prediction

Date: 2018-12-06 | Duration: 17:37

Topics

Arrest of Huawei CFO is just “shaking the box” for a better outcome Prediction: Mueller investigation will turn out the same as everything else Both sides will see what they want to see Russia tried to influence the 2016 election, or just sow chaos? They ran ads favoring Trump They ALSO ran ads favoring Hillary Russia hacked one side (the DNC)…and not the other? Russia wouldn’t TRY to hack both sides?

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> [!note] Rough Transcript
> 
> This is an auto-generated transcript and may contain errors.

## Transcript

[0:06]

doo-doo-doo-doo-doo bumpo pom pom pom pom pom pom hey everybody come on in here yes I am in a new location but that won't change the deliciousness that is coffee with Scott Adams it's good anytime anywhere so join me if you will and lifting your cup your mug your class your container your stein your chalice filled with your favorite liquid I like coffee and join me for the simultaneous epic
now I realize I might be in the wrong time zone for many of you and I believe I am but that's because I'm in the wrong time zone so at the moment I'm in Utah and Cristina's still asleep so I'm I'm gonna make it a quick one

[1:09]

so I'm I'm gonna make it a quick one this morning so we got a few topics this morning one of them is the provocative arrest by the Canadians who are going to turn over to the United States an extra bite the CFO for Chinese tech company whose name is pronounced away I don't know how it's pronounced hua WEEI I'm gonna have to watch the news today to see if anybody can pronounce it yes I'm in Park City so you're probably thinking to yourself this is a very this is a very provocative booth that we would actually arrest a top executive of a main Chinese company and I guess somebody's saying I pronounced it why away the name of the company and the

[2:10]

away the name of the company and the interesting thing about this is apparently the charge has something to do
do of trading with the r and so this Chinese company you why away if I'm pronouncing it correctly was alleged alleged to be trading with with Iran now I don't know how that makes it against American law I'm a little unclear on how a Chinese citizen can be accused of breaking a law that America can prosecute if they didn't do it in America and it didn't have anything to do directly with Americans so I'm not even entirely sure how we have the legal standing to arrest a CFO of a Chinese company but in any case we have now what's interesting about her is apparently her father was the founder of the company and it's a major company so

[3:10]

the company and it's a major company so there's very little chance that this does not catch the major attention of President Xi and and the Chinese leadership but I think this is an amazingly gutsy move because one of the things that Trump is good at doing is taking things to the home-field advantage you notice that when Trump is doing anything in public and he's tweeting he has sort of a home-field advantage and you can see that again with this situation because where the president is strongest is when a topic is in the news when everybody's talking about it and this arrest takes something that which Ivan was doing and moves it from some kind of a background law enforcement thing government to government and it elevates it to the top headline news now if you're negotiating with China and there are a thousand

[4:11]

with China and there are a thousand things they're doing that you don't like and you're trying to negotiate one after another don't you think they're just stalling you know don't you think that the primary the primary you know strategy for China is just to stall maybe you say oh yeah we'll do that and then just don't do it and then it's another year goes by and you bring the back and say hey I thought you said you were gonna do X but you haven't done it oh yeah yeah let's talk about that some more so what are the primary things you would expect given that there are so many topics that China is allegedly violating in trade and trade with Iran trade agreements in general stealing intellectual property so this is gigantic range of things that are doing that we don't think they ought to be doing and as long as it's a private conversation government-to-government they really have the upper hand don't

[5:12]

they really have the upper hand don't they because they can just sort of stall you know we can't we can't do much about it
it but by arresting this super high-profile executive in Canada it shows an entirely different level of well let's say badassness but more importantly it moves the topic from government to government to headline news and that's where China doesn't want it to be the last thing China needs is for the things that our government knows that are doing to become higher visibility so one of the things that this move accomplishes is it takes a ten of the the home field advantage of China which is government-to-government a let's keep this quiet let's get this taken care of why do you keep saying you'll do things and then not doing them that's their advantage to the public domain where now it's a

[6:13]

the public domain where now it's a headline so every time there's a headline the citizens of China get to learn for the first time what their government is up to so I don't think that the Chinese government wants their own population to be fully informed about what they're up to
so this is this is fascinating so we'll keep an eye on this my first impression was probably the same first impression most of you had which is oh no it's going to be war now that's an escalation my second impression after thinking about it a little bit was that we've probably we probably just shook the box and got a better better set up but we'll see now I have a prediction about the outcome of the Muller investigation are you ready

[7:16]

the Muller investigation are you ready you're probably wondering Scott since you're so good at predicting things can you tell us how the Muller investigation will turn out well have you noticed how everything else turned out I'm gonna make the bold recommendation of the bold prediction that the way the Muller investigation turns out will be exactly like everything else has turned out why would it be different how did everything else turn out reality split into two movies when the president got elected half of the country thought he's not really my president and they went into this whole movie where he was going to be leaving office in months and it you know it's just some temporary problem they could they would get rid of and then half of the country had a new president said hey eight more years so every time we have a situation where we think we're gonna get a clean result we never really do do we

[8:19]

a clean result we never really do do we we don't get a clean result with China hey let's do something about fentanyl well they said they will but I'll bet a lot of days are gonna go by where we don't see anything happen and then we thought we would get a Supreme Court you know nominee who was on the court but it's always in question maybe he's going to be impeached we thought we would get a clean we thought we would get a clean midterm election so many elections are being challenged and so if it's like everything else the Muller investigation will go this way the people who think Trump is up to no good will believe that's what they saw the people who think Muller is going to say terrible things about Trump will believe that's what the report says the people who think that Trump didn't do anything you know beyond what you

[9:20]

anything you know beyond what you imagined he would do which is keep his options open for business a lot of people talking to a lot of people but none of it criminal so I think the world will split once again into two clean and different versions so the only thing that can't happen is that the president can't be you know can't be in serious legal trouble so the only thing that can't happen is a molar investigation that makes it look like the president will be jailed instead it will be an ambiguous report in which everybody sees exactly what they want to see Trump supporters will see will say well it's just a bunch of blah blah blah but there's no legal jeopardy it was a waste of time there's nothing related to the central question of Russian interference meanwhile the anti-trump errs we'll look

[10:22]

meanwhile the anti-trump errs we'll look at exactly the same report and they will report and conclude that it was a damning report that shows that the President did everything he was accused of doing before whatever reason bla bla bla they can't put him in jail so I think there's no chance that it can go any other way you know it will give you both worlds simultaneously and they will just stay there we will perpetually have two completely different views of the world and people will be locked into them and they won't have to solve you know one of them will not have to disappear in favor of the other so that's my prediction
now I've got a question about the way the anti jumpers are talking about Russia so the the most common statement about Russia is that we now know beyond a shadow of a doubt that they were

[11:22]

a shadow of a doubt that they were trying to influence the election and that they were trying to influence it in favor of Trump winning but here are some questions that are outstanding for me number one little endless look at the evidence so one part of the evidence was that they ran ads on social media that were Pro Trump this we believe to be true I don't think anybody's doubting that but here's the problem they also ran ads the same group of people who ran ads for Trump ran ads in favor of Hillary were they cleverly trying to hide their Pro Trump focus by running ads that were also Pro Hillary how do we explain that it was the same group of people did some of them get the wrong memo oh my god you're a bad employee we told you to make pro-trump ads why did

[12:23]

told you to make pro-trump ads why did you accidentally make pro-hillary ads okay that doesn't make sense does it and these are the facts that are not in question we know for sure that they made ads Pro Hillary I don't think that's in question right we've actually seen them so the first part of evidence that the trolls were Pro Trump seems to be violated by the evidence that we have so a better a better interpretation would be that they were trying to sow chaos and get the country battling each other the next thing is the you'll often hear well Don junior went to that meeting that meeting didn't have any information the Russians didn't have anything so there was no collusion there was no possibility of collusion so they're trying to connect that Don Jr

[13:23]

they're trying to connect that Don Jr might have wanted to hear some information that would be helpful to Russian collusion and it's a real stretch because if somebody tells me hey if you walk down stairs literally it was in the building you worked in I believe that's true that meeting with the Russian lawyer was in his own building if you walk down stairs you might hear some stuff that's bad about Hillary that could be useful of course you take that meeting anybody who doesn't take that meetings an idiot now if it turns out that something comes out of that meeting that the FBI didn't know about that's the second decision but you definitely take the meeting so conflating that with these ads is weird and then there's a whole Russia hack the DNC now here's the problem with the Russia hack the DNC and therefore they must have been Pro chump don't you think they would have hacked the Republican Party too if they could have is isn't the only thing to stop them

[14:26]

is isn't the only thing to stop them from hacking both sides that one side had better security there is no evidence that they only wanted to hack one side there's only evidence that they only could hack one side that's completely different than evidence they only wanted to hack one side so it's being reported by all the smart people that that the evidence is clear and unambiguous that Russia was trying to influence the election that part's true the second part that they were trying to do it to get Trump elected that's really not in evidence what is it evidence is that they were meddling that part week we can pretty pretty sure about so every time I see it reported as fact that they were trying to get Trump elected I look at all the individual pieces of evidence and say I don't see it you know the the facts that are in evidence don't don't indicate that at

[15:28]

evidence don't don't indicate that at all they do indicate that Russians may want to mess with us and and create dissent now what about how did how would you how do you score this let's say you're Vladimir Putin and you know that President Hillary Clinton is the worst thing that could happen to the world let's see let's say you think that President Hillary Clinton would be bad for Russia but also bad for the United States just bad for everybody because she was going to cause trouble and destabilize things is it the same as saying that you're Pro Trump to say that you're anti Hillary Clinton would Russia have put the same amount of effort into absolutely anybody who wasn't eldery clinton and my guess is since there's some suggestion that they heeded heard more than other people that trump just happened to be the candidate had it been

[16:30]

happened to be the candidate had it been any other candidate wouldn't they have tried just as hard or wanted just as much that the President of the United States beat anybody by Hillary which is really different from trying to get Trump elected those are not the same anybody but Hillary is different than let's get Trump in there he's our guy very different and sure enough we're seeing that Trump is put in putting more pressure on Russia than anybody ever has before so that's consistent all right I'm gonna keep it short today and there's not much going on there there's a whole bunch of just shogi stuff in the news all of the jokey stuff just feels like another way they attack Trump it doesn't feel as important as it ought to be so we'll see how that plays out anyway I'll give you more information about Utah at another time I got to go do some

[17:32]

Utah at another time I got to go do some stuff and I will talk to you later