Episode 324 Scott Adams: Trade Deals with China, and Nothing Else Interesting

Date: 2018-12-03 | Duration: 36:50

Topics

US reports that China will close Fentanyl legal loophole! China reports that they will look into it Prediction: China will drag their feet and dangle Fentanyl Trade agreement arc is following the expected psychology We send soy to China…they send us Fentanyl Would you be satisfied if POTUS gets 5B to start the wall? Jerome Corsi suing Mueller for attempting to force him to lie? Laura Loomer, what happened? Shouldn’t the big military powers, form an alliance? US, China, Russia will never attack each other The danger is from the small countries and groups

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> [!note] Rough Transcript
> 
> This is an auto-generated transcript and may contain errors.

## Transcript

[0:08]

mmm boom ba-ba-boom hey everybody hey Martin Hey other people whose names I don't see yet Sharona always you're early Duncan it's good to see all of you really good to see you so good that it makes me want to have a simultaneous it with you all yes it's time to raise your mug your cup your glass your stein your chalice your container with your favorite beverage I like coffee and it's time to bring it to your lips and enjoy the simultaneous it oh yeah that's good simultaneous ippon some of the best this morning so far so you may have noticed that the news gets kind of boring toward the end of the year and so there's not as much happening but I'll tell you what is happening one of the things that strikes

[1:13]

happening one of the things that strikes me when I'm watching all the coverage about George HW Bush's passing is the story about him being shot down in a world war two and there's this the scene caught on video if you haven't seen it it's just sort of amazing that young George Bush he was a pilot his plane gets shot down he he bails out to the ends up in the ocean and he's rescued by a submarine now I don't know did he have a tracker on him of some kind or was he just so lucky they came down and the only place that there was a submarine an American submarine tech to catch him to rescue him now I also think about Bob Dole Bob Dole great senator ran for president and had also been shot down in World War two I think and you had a bad injury in his arm etc

[2:14]

and you had a bad injury in his arm etc and then John McCain who also almost became president or at least ran for president and he had also been shot down now what's interesting is you saw that President Trump was not so friendly -
not too friendly - why did I con his name so he liked George HW Bush but he wasn't friendly to McCain now both of them were pilots and both of them got shot down both of them were military heroes but do you remember what Trump said about McCain when he was he was joking about him he said I prefer people who don't get caught and then sure enough he didn't go to his funeral and now people are saying well you know at least president Trump is going to go to the funeral of George HW Bush to which I

[3:18]

the funeral of George HW Bush to which I say well at least he's being consistent George HW Bush was a war hero who didn't get caught so I might be the only person who's classless enough to mention that but at least he's being consistent now one of the things that I really loved about the George HW Bush situation all right of course nobody's happy that he passed but you're if you reach if you reach age 96 and you've been President and you've been a you know you've been the head of the CIA you've been a war hero you've been in Congress you've been ambassador to China and made a big difference in China if you've done all of those things what a life you've had there a life of service in particular and he was but that the coolest part of the story is that doesn't it seem like we needed him to do one last mission you

[4:20]

we needed him to do one last mission you know I think people are talking about it this way but it feels like George HW Bush had one more mission to to try to bring the country together for a minute so his death has this weirdly unexpected quality to it that he he created such a powerful legacy of being a decent guy forget about you know forget about what he did as president you know what we all of his other accomplishments which are you know of course worthy of respect but if you think about forget about all of that what do people talk about when they talk about it's very interesting how they talk about him they talk about him as being such a great guy like just the the highest level of character and honor and service and and all those things and yeah he was a one-term president but you know I don't think people hold that against him so much

[5:21]

against him so much and it feels like it feels like he he's just got this one last mission to bring the country together at the end of the year so there's there's something poetic about it that's hard to miss let's talk about the China deal now you probably saw that the United States in the White House said that President Qi and agreed to make all the classes of fentanyl they're a bunch of varieties of them all of them classified at the highest level of illegal drug in China so that they could crack down on them and crack you down on in this context means the death penalty because that's the maximum penalty and that's what they allegedly had agreed to do now that's what we announced what China announced in terms

[6:24]

announced what China announced in terms of what they had or had not agreed to about fentanyl is more of oh we'll look into it kind of a kind of a situation now this should not surprise you because it feels like whatever two big powers make an agreement they they present it differently China probably wants to maintain some options you know keep it keep it on the negotiating leverage part of the equation so that they haven't given anything away and they're like yeah yeah we agreed to do that but only if you do this other stuff so here's what you should expect you should expect China to not do not do what they do what the United States announced so my best prediction because the China will not in any timely fashion pursue making it a banned substance they just won't happen so regardless of what they agreed to in that meeting I believe

[7:28]

they agreed to in that meeting I believe they will drag their feet and they'll they'll keep dangling that out there it's like well you could reach an agreement with us and that fentanyl sure it certainly would decrease there'd be a lot less fentanyl if you just made a deal with us on soybeans or whatever they'll they're talking about so you should expect that China absolutely will not act on fat the fentanyl in a timely basis that's what I would expect but probably there's you know good news ahead eventually when we get a trade deal you should also expect as I've told you lots of times before that the good news we're hearing about a trade what they call it a truce meaning that we've agreed to not raise tariffs on a bunch of stuff as long as we're productively engaging with them you should expect that that won't work

[8:31]

you should expect that that won't work out so the next 90 days the the odds of actually wrapping up a trade deal with China in 90 days probably close to zero is my guess you know anything's possible but if I had to put ads on it I'd say close to zero and the reason is that this is the nature of this negotiation is like many other negotiations I've been personally involved in and others others that I've observed the oh I'm not past somebody said why so pessimistic I'm not pessimistic I'm telling you that things are working in exactly the right direction it's just that the speed with which you hope it will happen is probably not even close so if you're thinking to yourself ah I think I think we're going to have something in three months probably zero chance of that six months six months maybe I think maybe

[9:32]

months six months maybe I think maybe six months possibly but but 90 days almost zero and you should also expect that there will be times between now and the time we get an agreement when things will look much worse it will look like we're never gonna have an agreement so you should expect that to happen but all of this is should be expected in the process it should be oh we got good news nope it's impossible it looks like we got a little good news no no no it's impossible wait wait I think I think we know it's impossible and then Boop you got a deal so the normal arc of a deal like this is we should go through at least a few more phases where we're sure I can't get done or that you know it's just impossible in some some way but we will get it done that that's just the psychology of big deals now I thought it was interesting

[10:33]

deals now I thought it was interesting that China is sending us fentanyl and we're sending them soy I'm just gonna leave that there for a moment you can write your own jokes in your head yes China is sending us fentanyl and we're sending them so I
now some people have suggested that they're really sending us all this fentanyl for sort of long-term clever military reasons where they're weakening our country by getting us all addicted to these drugs but what is SOI doing to their military readiness I ask you now my understanding of SOI is that if you you eat some of it it's probably pretty good for you like most things if you eat too much of it well if you do too much

[11:33]

too much of it well if you do too much of anything you can get yourself into some trouble right and yeah the reason the soy protects you from cancer is that it mimics or somehow works compatibly with estrogen so the best way to avoid cancer if you're a man is to chemically change yourself into a woman I think you know your your keep your tumors will grow a lot slower if you don't have testosterone as a dominant dominant chemistry now somebody said opposite so and here's here's what I went to I did a little looking online to see if I could find out somebody says please do not spread soy myths so that's what I'm going to talk about so I can't tell by reading up online if soy is good

[12:35]

tell by reading up online if soy is good or bad for me it does seem that there's some amount of it that's probably more good than bad and there's some larger amount of it where there's some question so I don't think that's a myth right there it is it's a true statement the people who know about science and nutrition would tell you well don't do too much so WebMD put it that way so I would consider WebMD one of the more reliable sources for this sort of stuff traumatic stuff and their article on it said yeah you could eat it for dinner but I'd be a little careful about eating it for three meals a day now is there any other food like that that you can think of that people are telling you I wouldn't eat it three meals a day except for maybe something that makes you overweight it's kind of unique that way I can tell you

[13:37]

kind of unique that way I can tell you that when I was eating lots of soybeans because they're really tasty I didn't feel right I'll also tell you that I started looking at labels to try to figure out you know what things have soy in it so I could make sure I don't get too much because I get plenty of protein from other sources so I started looking at labels and do you know what do you know what packaged products have soy in them almost all of them soy isn't just about everything that's got a package on it it's about it's in practically everything with a can that isn't just one one one ingredient and you could you almost can't avoid it try to try to buy I'm salad dressing just go to the store and go to the the salad dressing section and just look at the labels and the salad dressing there's soy in every one every one of them toys everywhere so the

[14:43]

every one of them toys everywhere so the recommendation is don't get don't get too much soy and oh yes sugar would be the same sugar it would be in the same category that a little bit wouldn't hurt you but a lot is bad for you yeah
it's really hard to get a soy free diet so I'm just let me summarize before I get sued by the the soy people I'm not I'm not giving you any authoritative medical or other opinion on soy I would not know if it's good or bad I have no way of knowing and therefore I'm not going to tell you what you should or should not eat I'm saying this as my statement to not give sued but I can give you my opinion my opinion is I stay away from it so I wonder how much SOI ship to China would change their military readiness would

[15:44]

change their military readiness would they have less military readiness some as some degree of soy consumption just a question I'm not saying I'm not saying it's a problem because I wouldn't know I have no information I just think it's funny that we're they're sending us fentanyl and we're sending them soy the world's a funny place sometimes now correct me if I'm wrong but there isn't anything else interesting going on somebody says you're being reckless it's got is it reckless to say that I have no authoritative information the soil will hurry you which is true but that you can't get a clear answer by researching it if you can't get a clear answer about whether something is good for you what are you gonna do what is the smart thing

[16:45]

are you gonna do what is the smart thing to do if it's unclear whether it's good for you well if you have alternatives that are completely clear somebody said did I get the flu shot I did not but I'm considering it
let's talk about the wall yeah how many of you would be angry at the president let's say those of you who own a wall so you're pro wall if the president gets five billion for the wall and you know it's enough to start would you be happy with it how would you feel with five billion dollars for the wall that as opposed to twenty five billion which would be the full full amount do your research on flu

[17:49]

full full amount do your research on flu shots while my understanding of flu shots is that on any given year the formula that they concoct may be you know close to useless but gives you some protection yeah so it might be ten percent protection on some ear it might be much greater on another year because they can't quite predict which flu is going to be the big one I think that's the problem so they only prepare it for the flu they expect to come not the flu that they don't expect to come yeah something is better than nothing so if it's true that it gives you ten percent protection and the risk is mortal like you you know a my age they tell you you could die from it so that might be worth it

[18:57]

yeah I've just look at your answers now about the five billion so most of you seem to think five billion would at least satisfy satisfy you that the president was serious and effective and making something like a wall happened so yeah okay so people seem to be think five billion would get it done well I would expect that we should be able to get five billion this seems doable all right well I don't have anything to talk about because there's no news all all of this stuff with Michael Cohen and all of the legal stuff about Muller doesn't seem to you that we've been through this continuous cycle of you know now we've got them because this person is talking doesn't it feel like you've just been

[20:00]

doesn't it feel like you've just been jacked around for eighteen months with I would we've got the president now and it's it's nothing all right French riots so I've been watching I watched some of the footage of the French riots they're pretty scary there's a lot going on there but I don't really get the importance of the French riots they just seem correct me if I'm wrong aren't they they're mad about a gas tax so that's like the most boring thing in the world to be mad about I don't know if you can I don't think that government is going to be overthrown by people who don't want a gas tax maybe but it just it it feels like it feels like a lot of noise and smoke and cars burning out but I don't know that any of it makes any difference you know in the long run but maybe I'm

[21:01]

you know in the long run but maybe I'm missing something maybe there's something more happening in France than I understand which is totally possible
so how much does Cowan really know about the Trump Organization deals in Russia I feel like Cohen feels like the guy who was always on the just slightly on the outside it may be I'm wrong here but it feels like Cohen wasn't it wasn't exactly on the inner circle he was sort of on the outside of the inner circle just doing some stuff that other people didn't want to do I don't think he knows anything how much would Michael Cohen actually know about what the actual decision-makers in the Trump Organization was say Don junior probably more important to any decisions about new projects than anybody else how much did Michael Cohen know about the real

[22:03]

did Michael Cohen know about the real inner workings of the Trump Organization I'm not sure it was that much I I would be I guess I would be surprised if Cohen knew anything wouldn't you do you think Michael Cohen knows anything and then there's the Jerome Corsi stuff apparently he's now jerome corsi is suing Muller and Muller's team for trying to force him to give false testimony I didn't even know that was a thing you can sue somebody for anything like that there's no limit to how many things you can sue somebody for and I looked at that and I thought to myself well I don't think he has the greatest chance of prevailing but I do love the fact the way he's fighting it I kind of love the fact that he's going right at their at their

[23:04]

he's going right at their at their weakness and their weakness is that the public thinks that they've turned into nothing but a collusion or not a collusion trap a yeah a perjury trap you so I think the president has done a good job of turning at least you know a third of the country the people who are likely to be on his side I think the president's done a good job of convincing people that the witch-hunt is completely illegitimate at this point so of course he's going after them does a great job in terms of having confirmation bias do that if not confirmation so the fact that you're even talking about jerome corsi suing muller for creating a perjury trap and trying to force him to lie could not be better for a president Trump it's exactly the story that President Trump wants on the front page every day and so

[24:05]

wants on the front page every day and so I asked myself this who is paying for course his lawyers because he may be getting a little help with his lawyers because it doesn't seem like a total coincidence that why he's doing is so positive for Republicans and for the pro Trump side so I've got a feeling that Corsi is becoming a productive part of the persuasion here laura Loomer could somebody tell me what laura Loomer even got in trouble for one of the one of the things I do every time somebody gets kicked off a Twitter or gets in trouble the first thing I do is as I say okay what did they say or what did they do and then I wait for the news to tell me because you would think that if the story is a person X got kicked off to Twitter what is it that they said and

[25:05]

Twitter what is it that they said and then I think well clearly every time I read headline about it or somebody talks about it who there's a there's a piece on the internet it will quote quote what she did wrong according to Twitter and then you know then there'll be some opinion on it and then I'll form an opinion I have not seen anything is there some reason that everybody keeps asking me give me your opinion of Laura Loomer without telling me why I she even have one can anybody give me she talked about Sharia
everybody talks about Sharia what did what did she say exactly the gather kicked off wasn't she talking about her person she was probably talking about a person right who somebody somebody she's opposed to who is pro Sharia was that him she criticized Muslim politician whose name

[26:07]

criticized Muslim politician whose name went by she criticized a pro Sharia senator did she kick kicked off for criticizing her or for being incorrect in her criticism was L n Omar so she could as did she criticized the person or the or the practice so she said somebody was anti-semitic and called out and she called out a Farrakhan as anti-semitic so she was she was kicked off of Twitter for being a for being politically correct yeah but she was criticizing somebody else and so she was politically incorrect in being politically correct so she did her political correctness well so she criticized somebody for being a racist which normally which normally is

[27:09]

which normally which normally is considered a good behavior but she did it wrong so she I kicked off
yeah she had contrasting tweets between her and Farrakhan yeah okay so yeah here's the thing so it sounds to me like what she was accused of was going after somebody's religion is that it we it is it the way she did it which made people say you're really going after this and this politicians religion you're not really you're not going after her for being anti-semitic you're just going after her for her religion is that how they interpreted it yeah she complained

[28:12]

they interpreted it yeah she complained about the wrong side yeah you know the facts here are all squishy yeah it's hard to get a penny purchase on this so I've told you before that I'm I'm largely gonna sideline myself on the questions of who's getting kicked off of social media because I just don't like to associate myself with other people's opinions at that level
it's a double standard well we live in a world of double standards Trump had a tweet today about ending the arms race that sounds boring let me check the president's tweet today about ending the arms race as somebody just said oops there is I'm certain that at some time

[29:25]

there is I'm certain that at some time in the future President Xi and I this is president Trump tweeting uh-huh together with President Putin a freshman will start talking about a meaningful halt to what has become a major and controllable arms race the u.s. spends 716 billion dollars this year crazy you know doesn't it seem to you I don't think I've ever said this in public before but I'll say it new you know countries like to make they like to make lots of military alliances to stay safe it's a very normal thing countries make military alliances what would be the most intelligent military alliance for the United States to make it makes me wonder if the best military alliance wouldn't be the US China and Russia and then NATO is thrown a toe in there shouldn't shouldn't the big military powers be on the same side because it's here's the situation the big military powers are

[30:25]

situation the big military powers are really not going to ever attack each other it's just not going to happen but all of the military risk for the big powers are coming from smaller countries you know the they get a nuke they get it they have terrorists that sort of thing it feels to me like the most natural military alliance would be the biggest military powers just saying hey why are we on opposite teams when there's no chance we'll fight each other why would you spend seven hundred and sixty billion dollars much of that to oppose the only countries you're not ever gonna get in a fight with you're not ever gonna have a major war with Russia unless you're just suicidal you're not ever gonna have a major world with China and and they with us why don't we just say well look the three of us are never going to attack each other why don't we stop wasting money acting like we are and and at least militarily make sure that we're

[31:27]

least militarily make sure that we're making sure other countries don't get nukes and come after one of us now I realize how simplistic and unrealistic that is but it's one of those questions that every once a while you have to stop and ask yourself why we're on the other team because if you can't beat each other and that's the situation right you know we can't beat China China can't beat us we can't beat Russia without you know being destroyed if he can't beat him what are you supposed to do join them right if you can't beat them join them it's there's a reason that's an old saying because it's the only rational thing to do why would you fight with somebody you can't beat there's no that's the most irrational thing you could possibly do now in the old days you know before there were nuclear weapons etc in the old days two countries could be at each other because they both think they could win or they think the other one could win and they

[32:27]

think the other one could win and they don't want to be beaten so it seems like the whole idea of having in the enemy depends on the notion that one of you could win a war if you take away the notion that either if you could ever win why would you ever be militarily against each other to what end would you do that other than theater it's just complete theater and so it seems to me that we you you could almost imagine a grand deal that changes civilization forever in which you say hey you big countries and who have nukes let's agree that all the countries with the big power are on the same team let's let's just be on the same team and let's figure what each other wants and let's at least stop using cyber stuff against each other because there's just there's just no

[33:29]

because there's just there's just no good that comes out of it so it seems to be that if if China knew that it could you know have a good future without worrying about us that would be a good deal I don't know you know when we talk about you know China becoming a major power and 20 whatever and that China wants to dominate the world why do you think China wants to dominate the world it's probably a little bit defensive isn't it do you think that do you think that China wants for no reason whatsoever to dominate the you know the the oceans everywhere in their neighborhood do you think they care about dominating the ocean because we dominate an ocean look at us how awesome we are to dominate an ocean do you think they care about the ocean I don't think so
so I think they care about military defensive position what that does are

[34:29]

defensive position what that does are things so I think we're just all oriented in an unproductive way because we're sort of caught in the past it feels like there's some new thinking that needs to come around where we just acknowledge that the big the big the big country is just aren't going to attack each other China should want the United States to be you know filling its boats in the South China Sea because it probably means we're doing trade and the world is safer because you know the big powers are not at each other's neck and they can defend against other other risks so is it my imagination or is at least half of our seven hundred and sixty billion dollars spent for psychological reasons alone it's not really it's not even for defense how do you China and Russia feel about Israel I believe China and Russia

[35:29]

about Israel I believe China and Russia are both I don't want to say pro-israel but they're not anti-israel my understanding is that Russia and Israel are have a fine relationship and I don't even know what China and Israel are all about I think China because they're not a religious country I think they either can work with you or they can't and that's as far as it goes and I would imagine that China and Israel probably do business right I don't know much about that part of the world but I assume they do business and I'll bet it's not much of a problem
somebody who is anti-israel and Pro Hamas you're saying Chinese or the Russians Russia sports Israel yes China is not Pro Hamas is it that doesn't make sense

[36:44]

yeah so all right I got nothing else to say so I'm gonna say goodbye for today talk to you tomorrow